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Patriots 2022 Offseason Thread
cdj
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Post by cdj on May 6, 2022 10:21:38 GMT -5
I gotta be honest idc what analysts give us for a draft grade. They gave us A’s for 2019 lol Again, you are falling unto the trap of evaluating the process based on the result. Think of it this way, if the coach and GM were different people and the GM drafted all the right players but the coach butchered their development. Still a bad draft? There were better decisions to be made at the top but the value they got was fantastic. What happened subsequently is a different story. That's why we can actually like the players they drafted this year but hate how they went about doing it. I don’t think people understand that teams have wildly different boards than what’s available publicly from pundits and they have a lot more access to inside info such as medicals and interviews For instance if Dean was picked at 21 most people would give them an A- or a B+. He ended up going like 86 or whatever. That would’ve been the real reach. Do I think Strange would’ve gone in the 30’s? Probably not. I think he definitely goes in the 40’s somewhere and in a draft like this where a lot of talent 25-75 was kinda jumbled depending on opinion I don’t mind them reaching a little to get their guy, especially since he’ll be plug and play at a position of need.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 6, 2022 11:20:10 GMT -5
The real simple answer to not keeping Thuney is the money. Which is also the reason for trading Mason. If the guard position is so easy to fill and lacks value then how can BB justify paying 18 million for the 2 guard spots? Pretty simple really. Do you think the Bears thought Trubinsky was going to bust when they gave up picks to move up one spot to get him? The list of guys who bust is long and the safest 1st rd picks are Oline. And as far as taking shots on guys with big upside that is what you have in the next 4 picks with all that speed. BTW the more I see of Thornton the more I like his potential, if he had a good QB throwing him the ball his scouting report might have been a lot different. You can't make that case when Bill uses a first round pick on a OG for the second time. He's paid Mankins, he's paid Shaq Mason. You had all the money last year and I'd argue Mason got traded more so because Onwenu is way too good to ride the bench, the money being a bonus. First round picks give you the most excess value, so by taking an OG in the first Bill is saying it's as important as any position. So if you feel that way I would have paid Thuney If you have to take an OG so you don't pick a bust, you need to change things. Mitch Trubisky is the worst example ever. He's a one year College starter at QB. Likely the highest bust rate you could pick and the Bears were stupid to trade up for him. Yet at the same time he's also not a complete bust either. I'm actually very interested to see what he does on the Steelers. I just don’t get your point with Mitch Trubisky. Did you not see anyone available that was a safe pick? The only part, I don’t get about the Mason/Onwenu part you mention is why not keep Mason and play Onwenu at Right tackle where he’s proven to be really good versus paying Trent Brown more money than Mason?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 6, 2022 11:39:24 GMT -5
The Patriots approach in 2019 wasn't the issue, it was taking Harry over Deebo who most agreed was a perfect fit or even AJ Brown. Trading up for a falling CB wasn't bad, it was just the next guy picked in Greedy Williams that should have been the pick.
Zero issues with guys like Froholdt or Stidham busting. Good value picks at positions of need. The best draft guys aren't close to perfect, there will always be busts. You wanted a young QB to learn from Brady.
Bill destroyed Winovich by changing the defensive line three times in 3 years
Why did you have to draft Strange? Bill did it to himself. Didn't want to pay Karras, then didn't go after guys like Freeney. Also didn't pay Thuney while paying so many other players crazy money.
Worst thing you can do during a draft is have a massive hole that means you're forced to do something stupid. It would be one thing if this team was loaded, like one piece away and that was an all pro OG. That's not the Patriots.
Maybe Bill should do what the Rams do, trade all your first and 2nd picks for stars, then just load up on late round picks.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 6, 2022 11:46:57 GMT -5
You can't make that case when Bill uses a first round pick on a OG for the second time. He's paid Mankins, he's paid Shaq Mason. You had all the money last year and I'd argue Mason got traded more so because Onwenu is way too good to ride the bench, the money being a bonus. First round picks give you the most excess value, so by taking an OG in the first Bill is saying it's as important as any position. So if you feel that way I would have paid Thuney If you have to take an OG so you don't pick a bust, you need to change things. Mitch Trubisky is the worst example ever. He's a one year College starter at QB. Likely the highest bust rate you could pick and the Bears were stupid to trade up for him. Yet at the same time he's also not a complete bust either. I'm actually very interested to see what he does on the Steelers. I just don’t get your point with Mitch Trubisky. Did you not see anyone available that was a safe pick? The only part, I don’t get about the Mason/Onwenu part you mention is why not keep Mason and play Onwenu at Right tackle where he’s proven to be really good versus paying Trent Brown more money than Mason? It's not more money, his cap number is half of Mason's. That being said, that's what I would have done. The only thing that comes to mind is Trent Brown can play LT if Wynn goes down for a long stretch. Yet I'm fine with Herron at LT, it's RT were he just sucks. I don't understand Bill wanting Onwenu at OG when he was so good at RT and he stays healthy. That's why he drafted two OG or RT late in the draft, he has to know Trent Brown doesn't play 17 games.
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Post by texs31 on May 6, 2022 11:53:23 GMT -5
I think many DO understand the different boards. That's not the issue. The issues are (potentially):
- not having a good handle on consensus so that you take a guy you love higher than you need to.
- having such a small board that you can't afford to lose "your guy". I don't mind (that much) that they had a higher grade on Strange and Thornton than others. It's also quite possible that other teams would've popped them higher as well (especially those that have NE connections in their braintrust). I DO struggle with the idea that they didn't have enough players evaluated with similar grades that they couldn't risk losing out on them.
Both of those can lead to missed opportunities.
EDIT - now if someone wants to argue that the stuff we don't have access to (specifically the interviews) tells BB that the other other guys they missed on wouldn't be successful in his system (ow with his coaching style) okay? But that would still suggest a limitation in the WHOLE system/process.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 6, 2022 14:16:31 GMT -5
That's what I wanna know, who was like the next four OG that can play LG in their system on their board. If Cole Strange was the only one, your board is too small.
The Rams wanting a starting LG wanted Strange, yet took Logan Bruss at 104, Zach Tom a guy listed by a lot of people went 140, my dark horse guy Chris Paul went 230.
Athletic scores Strange 9.95, Bruss 8.73, Tom 9.92 and Paul 9.46. Zion Johnson the highest rate OG by most people was 9.56. So you had a similar athlete in the late 4th and even a darn good one in the 7th round. If that's your requirement for LG in our sysyem.
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Post by texs31 on May 6, 2022 14:47:59 GMT -5
I'd like to believe that BB didn't draft Strange bc he was a guard and they needed a guard. Even with my disagreement of the process, I'd like to believe je drafted him bc he was the highest rated player on his board.
Overdrafting the guy bc he was forcing a guard pick seems SO crazy.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 7, 2022 8:59:27 GMT -5
He might have been the highest rated guy on their board with need taken into account. It's the NFL draft, need plays a huge role which is why you shouldn't go into the draft with huge holes.
Just like the Rams wanted Strange, they took Logan Bruss. They had a need and wanted to address that first. I get it, yet it just means you might end up passing on better value.
Does anyone really believe if he signed Karras to even a one year deal that he still picks Cole Strange in the first round? I'd say at the minimum he trades down again, had multiple offers. He wouldn't be so fearful of losing him if it wasn't his biggest need. I'd say if he signed an OG, our draft is wildly different and we likely don't pick Cole Strange or he drops and you get good value on him. Like you take Thornton and then cone back to Strange with our second round pick if he's there. Bill only takes OG high when he has a need.
Heck depending how you feel about Strong with the James White news, you could makes a case the whole draft up till the Harris pick was need based. I surely didn't look at QB as a need, yet Groh sure made it sound that way. Even then if they are thinking about waiting till the end of camp to maybe trade the other Harris, the whole draft is need based. Bills thinking about getting more draft capital and not paying players he should be paying. I want to resign Harris. He has low mileage and shouldn't cost much because we use multiple RBs so he'll never have a huge season. Three top 127 picks in four years on RB is getting a little crazy.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 7, 2022 9:08:02 GMT -5
I don’t think they ever want to get caught in a situation where they have to sign Steven Jackson or play Cordarrelle Patterson out of position again (even if Patterson ended up being a good back later on). I think you’ll always see them with 4-5 quality backs going forward
I expect a redshirt year from Kevin Harris and then I expect him to be backing up Stevenson next year. I think Strong may see the field in game 1 depending on what his blitz pick up is like as James White is apparently still now where close and may never be again. I think I remember reading that he’s pretty good at pass protection
I don’t expect them to pay Damien Harris
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Post by philarhody on May 7, 2022 9:31:56 GMT -5
The Patriots got a lot better by drafting Strange. He’s cost controlled for the next 5 years. I think he’s going to be as good as Joe Thuney, who’s making 16 million a year. Strange is making 3 million a year. That’s a 13 million dollar savings per year.
Shaq is making 8 million a year and his contract is up after next season. That’s a 5 million dollar savings with an extra three years of player control.
Ted Karras is making 6 million dollars a year. Cole Strange, who is making half that, projects as a better player.
New England got better by replacing expensive guards for inexpensive guards (Strange and Onwenu) who can play at similarly high levels. In the future, they will have the money to spend on other needs.
I’m reading It’s Better to Be Feared, and one notable aspect of the book is how the Patriots built their dynasty through free agency. After a terrible first season in New England, Belichick signed a bunch of no name free agents like Mike Vrabel, Roman Phifer, Mike Compton, Terrell Buckley, Anthony Pleasant. Belichick then put a giant, rusty anchor in the facility to represent the dead weight that would be cut that year. A team staffer called it “building through the middle class.” New England targeted overlooked players with chips on their shoulders.
I love that Belichick’s continues to do that now. It’s prudent. Fans are quick to say “the Dolphins have Tyreek Hill AND Jaylen Waddle!” But the Patriots now have 5 legit wide receivers, two legit tight ends, a stable of backs, and a solid line.
Build through the middle class, and you naturally attract players with chips on their shoulders. Winovich was a one trick pony with a weird attitude and stupid hair. Have fun in Cleveland.
Mack Wilson is a more versatile player who was passed over after numerous front office and coaching staff shuffles in Cleveland. He never complained, and now your giving a hungry dog a real shot at playing.
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Post by texs31 on May 7, 2022 9:43:28 GMT -5
Not suggesting need isn't a factor. Just don't think he's approaching it from a "I need a G and I can wait to get one in Rd X" as you are suggesting.
Gotta believe if WE know he can get a starting caliber G late, so does BB.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 7, 2022 10:46:34 GMT -5
The Patriots got a lot better by drafting Strange. He’s cost controlled for the next 5 years. I think he’s going to be as good as Joe Thuney, who’s making 16 million a year. Strange is making 3 million a year. That’s a 13 million dollar savings per year. Shaq is making 8 million a year and his contract is up after next season. That’s a 5 million dollar savings with an extra three years of player control. Ted Karras is making 6 million dollars a year. Cole Strange, who is making half that, projects as a better player. New England got better by replacing expensive guards for inexpensive guards (Strange and Onwenu) who can play at similarly high levels. In the future, they will have the money to spend on other needs. I’m reading It’s Better to Be Feared, and one notable aspect of the book is how the Patriots built their dynasty through free agency. After a terrible first season in New England, Belichick signed a bunch of no name free agents like Mike Vrabel, Roman Phifer, Mike Compton, Terrell Buckley, Anthony Pleasant. Belichick then put a giant, rusty anchor in the facility to represent the dead weight that would be cut that year. A team staffer called it “building through the middle class.” New England targeted overlooked players with chips on their shoulders. I love that Belichick’s continues to do that now. It’s prudent. Fans are quick to say “the Dolphins have Tyreek Hill AND Jaylen Waddle!” But the Patriots now have 5 legit wide receivers, two legit tight ends, a stable of backs, and a solid line. Build through the middle class, and you naturally attract players with chips on their shoulders. Winovich was a one trick pony with a weird attitude and stupid hair. Have fun in Cleveland. Mack Wilson is a more versatile player who was passed over after numerous front office and coaching staff shuffles in Cleveland. He never complained, and now your giving a hungry dog a real shot at playing. Exclamation point on all of this. The Pats have always been about the middle class roster under BB. I like this roster and my only concern is the question marks surrounding the LB and edge group, BB must like it but there are a bunch of unprovens.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 7, 2022 14:30:30 GMT -5
The Patriots got a lot better by drafting Strange. He’s cost controlled for the next 5 years. I think he’s going to be as good as Joe Thuney, who’s making 16 million a year. Strange is making 3 million a year. That’s a 13 million dollar savings per year. Shaq is making 8 million a year and his contract is up after next season. That’s a 5 million dollar savings with an extra three years of player control. Ted Karras is making 6 million dollars a year. Cole Strange, who is making half that, projects as a better player. New England got better by replacing expensive guards for inexpensive guards (Strange and Onwenu) who can play at similarly high levels. In the future, they will have the money to spend on other needs. I’m reading It’s Better to Be Feared, and one notable aspect of the book is how the Patriots built their dynasty through free agency. After a terrible first season in New England, Belichick signed a bunch of no name free agents like Mike Vrabel, Roman Phifer, Mike Compton, Terrell Buckley, Anthony Pleasant. Belichick then put a giant, rusty anchor in the facility to represent the dead weight that would be cut that year. A team staffer called it “building through the middle class.” New England targeted overlooked players with chips on their shoulders. I love that Belichick’s continues to do that now. It’s prudent. Fans are quick to say “the Dolphins have Tyreek Hill AND Jaylen Waddle!” But the Patriots now have 5 legit wide receivers, two legit tight ends, a stable of backs, and a solid line. Build through the middle class, and you naturally attract players with chips on their shoulders. Winovich was a one trick pony with a weird attitude and stupid hair. Have fun in Cleveland. Mack Wilson is a more versatile player who was passed over after numerous front office and coaching staff shuffles in Cleveland. He never complained, and now your giving a hungry dog a real shot at playing. Exclamation point on all of this. The Pats have always been about the middle class roster under BB. I like this roster and my only concern is the question marks surrounding the LB and edge group, BB must like it but there are a bunch of unprovens. The part that’s left out of this middle class is the Studs they fall behind.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 8, 2022 4:58:02 GMT -5
How much would you pay Harris and how much do you think he will get?
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Post by nuttyredsox on May 8, 2022 6:49:35 GMT -5
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Post by voiceofreason on May 8, 2022 9:06:52 GMT -5
Exclamation point on all of this. The Pats have always been about the middle class roster under BB. I like this roster and my only concern is the question marks surrounding the LB and edge group, BB must like it but there are a bunch of unprovens. The part that’s left out of this middle class is the Studs they fall behind. When you say studs do you mean the plethora of HOF players that were on those teams over 20 years of dominance? I think there are other teams with more HOF players during that stretch, which with all those Super Bowls you would expect more would be from the Pats. JS that the list of guys is long that only really produced great seasons when with the Pats. Some were castoffs from other teams and others were home grown that didn't have good careers after leaving. When you have the concentration of money spent on a middle class roster it doesn't leave a lot of money left over for the stars.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 8, 2022 9:52:30 GMT -5
I don’t think they ever want to get caught in a situation where they have to sign Steven Jackson or play Cordarrelle Patterson out of position again (even if Patterson ended up being a good back later on). I think you’ll always see them with 4-5 quality backs going forward I expect a redshirt year from Kevin Harris and then I expect him to be backing up Stevenson next year. I think Strong may see the field in game 1 depending on what his blitz pick up is like as James White is apparently still now where close and may never be again. I think I remember reading that he’s pretty good at pass protection I don’t expect them to pay Damien Harris Absolutely, I'm in the take a RB in every draft. I don't want you spending more top 130 picks on RBs than WR in a four year period. You know what's worse than not having a RB? Not having WR and paying Agholor crazy money. Paying Harris is going to cost much less than paying Meyers, basing things off of last year's stats. Harris is much better at his position than Meyers is at his, heck he's better than Agholor. Now if Strong is James White replacement, rather than Harris okay that makes sense. Yet my most trusted draft guide talks about how he struggles to contain rushers in pass protection at a low level of competition. He's willing and has experience doing it, yet is slow reading the plays and picking up the rush, while struggling to contain it. Maybe it's a brilliant move or maybe in the name of adding speed they passed on Kyren Williams who is 100% ready to be James Whites replacement right now and he'd be the best running receiving RB we've ever had. He's the complete opposite of Bolden, he's more like a small Harris and Stevenson, always getting tough yards after contact. That toughness is why he's so good at pass protection, he attacks pass rushers with highlight hits. His comp is Devin Singletary and look what he did to our D. Williams was trending towards mid second round pick before his disappointing 40 time at the combine. Don't mind me, this is a very unique draft and I keeping flipping back and forth from Groh brings out Bills worst to he's brilliant and exactly what we need. If he's a darn good receiving back this year, I take back everything I said.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 8, 2022 10:08:40 GMT -5
Not suggesting need isn't a factor. Just don't think he's approaching it from a "I need a G and I can wait to get one in Rd X" as you are suggesting. Gotta believe if WE know he can get a starting caliber G late, so does BB. All depends on what their board looks like no? I'd compare it to me wanting Shakir so bad because he was the perfect fit for what our offense needed. The only difference is I don't have the information they have and I don't make a crazy small board, which we known in the past they have done. Remember the trading up for Cowart and Bailey because Bill said they were running out of players on their board to draft? That was Nick Caserio, Zeigler seemed to have a much larger board and Groh seems to have a smaller one. It's Bill the OG we took in the 6th, could have been his next rated OG and I wouldn't put it past him to only have one LG rated to be able to start next year. Just like I felt there was only one Shakir in the draft and I would have overdrafted him. That mindset is because I went into this draft determined to get Mac Jones weapons, Bill went in determined to get a starting LG and he's very picky about those guys, compared to RG. We'll never know, our owner isn't Jerry Jones, he won't show off our draft board. Yet what I'd pay to see Bills boards from over the years.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 8, 2022 10:16:03 GMT -5
How much would you pay Harris and how much do you think he will get? 6-8 million over 4 years, half guaranteed, allowing you to move on after two years without a large amount of dead money. If a team goes to 10 million I let him walk and you'll get a 3rd round comp pick. Aren't comp pick based on salary rank at position? I want to start stocking up talent for Mac Jones years 3-5, which gives you the best chance at winning before you have to pay him. Allows you to spend draft capital on other needs.
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Post by texs31 on May 8, 2022 19:24:57 GMT -5
Not suggesting need isn't a factor. Just don't think he's approaching it from a "I need a G and I can wait to get one in Rd X" as you are suggesting. Gotta believe if WE know he can get a starting caliber G late, so does BB. All depends on what their board looks like no? I'd compare it to me wanting Shakir so bad because he was the perfect fit for what our offense needed. The only difference is I don't have the information they have and I don't make a crazy small board, which we known in the past they have done. Remember the trading up for Cowart and Bailey because Bill said they were running out of players on their board to draft? That was Nick Caserio, Zeigler seemed to have a much larger board and Groh seems to have a smaller one. It's Bill the OG we took in the 6th, could have been his next rated OG and I wouldn't put it past him to only have one LG rated to be able to start next year. Just like I felt there was only one Shakir in the draft and I would have overdrafted him. That mindset is because I went into this draft determined to get Mac Jones weapons, Bill went in determined to get a starting LG and he's very picky about those guys, compared to RG. We'll never know, our owner isn't Jerry Jones, he won't show off our draft board. Yet what I'd pay to see Bills boards from over the years. If BB wrote a book explaining his thought process throughout the years, that'd be an all-time best seller.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 10, 2022 14:27:07 GMT -5
D'Eriq King could be the 3rd down back of the future? Can he learn how to pickup the blitz and block? His football IQ and size leads me to think maybe 3rd down back might be his best position, hybrid slot/rb position maybe with the routes he could run. Just a thought.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 10, 2022 14:31:07 GMT -5
All depends on what their board looks like no? I'd compare it to me wanting Shakir so bad because he was the perfect fit for what our offense needed. The only difference is I don't have the information they have and I don't make a crazy small board, which we known in the past they have done. Remember the trading up for Cowart and Bailey because Bill said they were running out of players on their board to draft? That was Nick Caserio, Zeigler seemed to have a much larger board and Groh seems to have a smaller one. It's Bill the OG we took in the 6th, could have been his next rated OG and I wouldn't put it past him to only have one LG rated to be able to start next year. Just like I felt there was only one Shakir in the draft and I would have overdrafted him. That mindset is because I went into this draft determined to get Mac Jones weapons, Bill went in determined to get a starting LG and he's very picky about those guys, compared to RG. We'll never know, our owner isn't Jerry Jones, he won't show off our draft board. Yet what I'd pay to see Bills boards from over the years. If BB wrote a book explaining his thought process throughout the years, that'd be an all-time best seller. I suspect hope and expect he will as a historian of the game he might see his place in that history. He hasn't been shy about telling his story thru the years.
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Post by texs31 on May 12, 2022 8:38:05 GMT -5
Pats and Vegas working on a Stidham trade. Swap of late round picks involved.
2023 picks - Pats get a 6th while giving up a 7th (plus Stid)
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 12, 2022 10:45:21 GMT -5
Interesting, so many look at Stidham has a bust who sucks, yet his former OC wants him on the team.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 12, 2022 10:47:15 GMT -5
D'Eriq King could be the 3rd down back of the future? Can he learn how to pickup the blitz and block? His football IQ and size leads me to think maybe 3rd down back might be his best position, hybrid slot/rb position maybe with the routes he could run. Just a thought. I see him more as a WR, get him in space and let him make plays. Yet who knows, his athletic scores for RB and WR are both horrible. Yet he doesn't look bad on tape in the open field.
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