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Mediocrity vs Tank-a-thon
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 12, 2022 21:39:07 GMT -5
www.baseballamerica.com/stories/guide-to-the-new-cba-draft-lottery-expanded-playoffs-and-more/It's worth reviewing what the RS would get for their FAs if they don't trade them before they hit the market next winter. It's safe to assume that if the RS continue to remain outside PS contention, they'll find a way to get below the CBT. Therefore, this would apply: "Clubs that do not receive revenue sharing but don’t go over the CBT will receive a third-round pick if the player signs for more than $55 million or $23 million in average annual value, a compensation round B pick if the player signs for more than $100 million or $30 million in average annual value, or a compensation round A pick if the player signs for more than $150 million or $40 million in average annual value."I see that as meaning that JDM would be on the bubble as whether he brings us a third-rounder or nothing at all. He would need a four-year deal to get $55M or more. I lean toward thinking he'd get it. X and Eo would each bring a comp round B pick at worst and each would have a shot at getting $150M or more, meaning we'd get a comp round A pick. In all the case of all three of these guys, it of course depends on what kind of year they have for the Tank Sox.Even if we assume the best-case scenario for each of these guys as FAs, we'd get a better return by trading them at the deadline. I doubt Eovaldi has much of a shot at $150 million. Ray and Gausman got $110-115 and I don't think he's at a higher tier than those guys even if his 2022 matches last season. Stroman's 3/71 and Eduardo's 5/77 seem like better comps to me, though if someone gives him 5 years he might crack 9 figures. (The guy hasn't had an ERA below 3.72 since 2013...)
Anyways, yeah, a trade is clearly the better option.
I think you're probably right on Eo. But I think you always have to allow for the possibility that just one of the idiot owners will push his GM to give out a ridiculous contract. As a trade piece, I think Eo could bring a top 30 prospect, particularly if he's subsidized. A team like the Mets or Blue Jays that's hungry to win might go big to get him.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,228
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Post by cdj on May 13, 2022 1:16:22 GMT -5
A healthy Eovaldi has immense value at the deadline with his postseason track record. I think you’re starting with a contenders best prospect
You of course then pull a Yankees/Chapman and sign him back in the off-season
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Post by redsox43 on May 13, 2022 2:25:49 GMT -5
A few things I'm watching for-
-The Mariners to get back in the playoff race. They are a very interesting team for a trade partner with Devers. 3B is a black hole for them. The Mariners have Julio Rodriguez. If the Mariners jump back in the wild card race, they'll be desperate to stay in it because they haven't made the playoffs in like 20 years. Devers would be the best trade piece on the market if available.
-The Padres DH black hole. JD Martinez is a pretty good fit here and the often talked about swap for Will Myers is still a thing. They pretty much have matching salaries (Will Myers makes 2 million more). I hope they get no production from the DH spot until the trade deadline.
I think the Padres are ready to give up on Campusano. He's hit worse than Dalbec this year. So maybe that makes sense?
-The Cardinals black hole at Short Stop. Paul De Jong was just optioned after being terrible. The Padres could also be in the market for a short stop if they want to move Tatis to the outfield the rest of the year. In comes Xander rumors.
-The Angels will be desperate for top end pitching. They were the second place team to the Eovaldi bidding 3 years ago. They'll be after starting pitching and haven't made the playoffs in a decade. They have Mike Trout and Ohtani. They want to make noise I'm sure. I don't know what you could pry from them in return. Jo Addel has lost a lot of stock as a player but he's still crushing AAA. In steps Eovaldi.
Everyone will be in on Eovaldi. Let the best bidder win.
-Hopefully Vazquez and Kiké heat up a little the next two months and they can sell them.
-Alex Verdugo could be a sneaky trade candidate to get traded if he gets hot too. He's about to get expensive in arbitration if he puts up a good year. The Sox have Duran in LF.
They lost this race in the first 6 weeks of the season. Sale and Paxton pushed back to July. It's not tanking like another poster said, just retooling.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 13, 2022 6:32:27 GMT -5
A few things I'm watching for- -The Mariners to get back in the playoff race. They are a very interesting team for a trade partner with Devers. 3B is a black hole for them. The Mariners have Julio Rodriguez. If the Mariners jump back in the wild card race, they'll be desperate to stay in it because they haven't made the playoffs in like 20 years. Devers would be the best trade piece on the market if available. -The Padres DH black hole. JD Martinez is a pretty good fit here and the often talked about swap for Will Myers is still a thing. They pretty much have matching salaries (Will Myers makes 2 million more). I hope they get no production from the DH spot until the trade deadline. I think the Padres are ready to give up on Campusano. He's hit worse than Dalbec this year. So maybe that makes sense? -The Cardinals black hole at Short Stop. Paul De Jong was just optioned after being terrible. The Padres could also be in the market for a short stop if they want to move Tatis to the outfield the rest of the year. In comes Xander rumors. -The Angels will be desperate for top end pitching. They were the second place team to the Eovaldi bidding 3 years ago. They'll be after starting pitching and haven't made the playoffs in a decade. They have Mike Trout and Ohtani. They want to make noise I'm sure. I don't know what you could pry from them in return. Jo Addel has lost a lot of stock as a player but he's still crushing AAA. In steps Eovaldi. Everyone will be in on Eovaldi. Let the best bidder win. -Hopefully Vazquez and Kiké heat up a little the next two months and they can sell them. -Alex Verdugo could be a sneaky trade candidate to get traded if he gets hot too. He's about to get expensive in arbitration if he puts up a good year. The Sox have Duran in LF. They lost this race in the first 6 weeks of the season. Sale and Paxton pushed back to July. It's not tanking like another poster said, just retooling. Couple things, first are you saying 1.5 years of Devers would entice the mariners to trade julio? If so big disagree there, not that they don't have other intriguing pieces. 2nd Campusano has 12 ABs in the majors this year so way too early to be saying he's hitting like Dalbec. In AAA he's got a .368/.400/.561 slash. He's going to be just fine. Lastly the Angels really have nothing I'd be particularly interested in but that's just me personally. I've seen enough of addell to have 0 interest in him being a key piece of a trade for a guy like eovaldi and/or X.
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Post by Guidas on May 13, 2022 8:58:35 GMT -5
Tankity tank tank talk. When did all this become acceptable as an outcome? Was it Vietnam or is this a more current phenomenon?
I want no part of such talk. Burn the boats at the shore and fight til the end!
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Post by incandenza on May 13, 2022 9:16:27 GMT -5
Tankity tank tank talk. When did all this become acceptable as an outcome? Was it Vietnam or is this a more current phenomenon? I want no part of such talk. Burn the boats at the shore and fight til the end! It's utopianism. The present is messy, disappointing, compromised by contingent events. The future is bright, clear, pristine, and ideal. The present must be destroyed so that the future may be born.
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Post by costpet on May 13, 2022 11:28:00 GMT -5
Bloom said it was not time to panic. I only have one bit of advice for him…PANIC !!!
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Post by redsoxfan2 on May 13, 2022 11:35:41 GMT -5
Bloom said it was not time to panic. I only have one bit of advice for him…PANIC !!! Still have to sell tickets. A month and a half in and you've only beaten the Tigers in a series.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 13, 2022 11:42:08 GMT -5
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Post by prospectlove on May 13, 2022 11:50:51 GMT -5
The big thing is if they sell off all their free agents to be. This season in particular they can get a very big haul - possibly multiple top 100 prospects, plus several guys above the "lottery ticket" tier. Once they cross that barrier, losing more games to improve your draft position is pretty meh. Improving by a a few slots isn't a big deal. I'm certainly not convinced they will get multiple top 100 prospects this year even if they trade JD, Xander, and Euvaldi. Top 100 prospects fetch a LOT in trades, although Max Scherzer did get 2 last year for the Nationals.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 13, 2022 11:52:24 GMT -5
I would guess that Bloom has a good deal of familiarity with Matthew Liberatore, given that he was in Tampa's system until he was on the Arozarena deal.
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Post by prospectlove on May 13, 2022 11:53:00 GMT -5
A few things I'm watching for- -The Mariners to get back in the playoff race. They are a very interesting team for a trade partner with Devers. 3B is a black hole for them. The Mariners have Julio Rodriguez. If the Mariners jump back in the wild card race, they'll be desperate to stay in it because they haven't made the playoffs in like 20 years. Devers would be the best trade piece on the market if available. -The Padres DH black hole. JD Martinez is a pretty good fit here and the often talked about swap for Will Myers is still a thing. They pretty much have matching salaries (Will Myers makes 2 million more). I hope they get no production from the DH spot until the trade deadline. I think the Padres are ready to give up on Campusano. He's hit worse than Dalbec this year. So maybe that makes sense? -The Cardinals black hole at Short Stop. Paul De Jong was just optioned after being terrible. The Padres could also be in the market for a short stop if they want to move Tatis to the outfield the rest of the year. In comes Xander rumors. -The Angels will be desperate for top end pitching. They were the second place team to the Eovaldi bidding 3 years ago. They'll be after starting pitching and haven't made the playoffs in a decade. They have Mike Trout and Ohtani. They want to make noise I'm sure. I don't know what you could pry from them in return. Jo Addel has lost a lot of stock as a player but he's still crushing AAA. In steps Eovaldi. Everyone will be in on Eovaldi. Let the best bidder win. -Hopefully Vazquez and Kiké heat up a little the next two months and they can sell them. -Alex Verdugo could be a sneaky trade candidate to get traded if he gets hot too. He's about to get expensive in arbitration if he puts up a good year. The Sox have Duran in LF. They lost this race in the first 6 weeks of the season. Sale and Paxton pushed back to July. It's not tanking like another poster said, just retooling. Trading all of that off, question for you is this: Retooling with WHAT?? Devers better fetch the sun, moon, and pluto.
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Post by Guidas on May 13, 2022 11:59:55 GMT -5
Tankity tank tank talk. When did all this become acceptable as an outcome? Was it Vietnam or is this a more current phenomenon? I want no part of such talk. Burn the boats at the shore and fight til the end! It's utopianism. The present is messy, disappointing, compromised by contingent events. The future is bright, clear, pristine, and ideal. The present must be destroyed so that the future may be born. giphy.com/gifs/sigourney-weaver-iZbJPSGWcjuJW
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on May 13, 2022 12:19:38 GMT -5
If they aren't going to resign Nate Xander and Devers then trade them immediately for top prospects and Lets Tank for the next 2 seasons.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 13, 2022 12:27:17 GMT -5
If they aren't going to resign Nate Xander and Devers then trade them immediately for top prospects and Lets Tank for the next 2 seasons. As much as I really don't want to suffer through crummy baseball the next 2 seasons I tend to agree with you. As good as X and rafi have been and are, at least in the case of X I don't see him being a good-great player on their next competitive core. Which if I had to guess is going to be 2024 or later since I don't see enough in the upper minors, or free agency that can solidify this team into competitors in the next year and 3/4. There's so many holes as is and that's before the potential loss of X and JD. The only other avenue would be gutting the farm which I don't see Bloom doing either.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on May 13, 2022 12:29:09 GMT -5
If they aren't going to resign Nate Xander and Devers then trade them immediately for top prospects and Lets Tank for the next 2 seasons. As much as I really don't want to suffer through crummy baseball the next 2 seasons I tend to agree with you. As good as X and rafi have been and are, at least in the case of X I don't see him being a good-great player on their next competitive core. Which if I had to guess is going to be 2024 or later since I don't see enough in the upper minors, or free agency that can solidify this team into competitors in the next year and 3/4. There's so many holes as is and that's before the potential loss of X and JD. The only other avenue would be gutting the farm which I don't see Bloom doing either. As shitty as it would be to see Xander leave. A guy like Nolan Gorman being cost controlled for 6 years would be amazing. Maybe get Libratore as well. If the Sox need to trade them after 5 years because they get expensive then so be it.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 13, 2022 12:37:05 GMT -5
As much as I really don't want to suffer through crummy baseball the next 2 seasons I tend to agree with you. As good as X and rafi have been and are, at least in the case of X I don't see him being a good-great player on their next competitive core. Which if I had to guess is going to be 2024 or later since I don't see enough in the upper minors, or free agency that can solidify this team into competitors in the next year and 3/4. There's so many holes as is and that's before the potential loss of X and JD. The only other avenue would be gutting the farm which I don't see Bloom doing either. As shitty as it would be to see Xander leave. A guy like Nolan Gorman being cost controlled for 6 years would be amazing. Maybe get Libratore as well. If the Sox need to trade them after 5 years because they get expensive then so be it. Big IF but if they got Gorman I can see some hope if I squint hard enough. Theoretically Casas, Gorman, story, rafi should be a good IF. Outfield obviously still a giant hole in that scenario. They need probably 3 OFs still, one to platoon with Verdugo or whoever and 2 that are more starter types. Unfortunately I'm not sure if Gorman is really that plausible or not. The cardinals don't generally deal guys like him for rentals from what I can remember. I Won't get into the pitching in this post though.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 13, 2022 12:40:31 GMT -5
Guys, they're in fine shape for 2023. They don't look like a top tier contender, but they should be in the big group underneath them.
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Post by manfred on May 13, 2022 12:43:21 GMT -5
Guys, they're in fine shape for 2023. They don't look like a top tier contender, but they should be in the big group underneath them. This squad minus almost certainly X and Nate (maybe JDM) = optimism?
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Post by ematz1423 on May 13, 2022 12:44:09 GMT -5
Guys, they're in fine shape for 2023. They don't look like a top tier contender, but they should be in the big group underneath them. Maybe it's recency bias watching the train wreck of a season so far but that seems pretty optimistic to me. Especially if they let Xander go.
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Post by incandenza on May 13, 2022 13:03:32 GMT -5
Guys, they're in fine shape for 2023. They don't look like a top tier contender, but they should be in the big group underneath them. This squad minus almost certainly X and Nate (maybe JDM) = optimism? It's this squad minus X and Nate and JDM and Kiké and $16 million owed to Price, which = $80 million to spend. Just think: Bloom could add eleven Wachas!
In all seriousness, it's going to be fascinating to see what they do in the next 11 months. It'll be really hard to get, say, the 17 WAR they got out of those four players in 2021 even from $80 million to spend (and hopefully a chunk of that will go into a Devers extension). But it's also a ton of flexibility for Bloom to work with, and at least some cost-controlled talent should be trickling up from the minors.
For just one $80 million shopping spree scenario... they might add $15 million as part of a Devers extension, sign Trea Turner for $27 million, sign Jose Abreu for $18 million, and still have room left over for three Wachas!
ADD: Oh, and $12 million (or is it $8 million?) off the books for JBJ. Could help them upgrade at catcher or OF or pitching.
ADD2: So like a lineup of:
Story Devers Turner Abreu Verdugo Casas mid-tier FA CFer (maybe just Kiké again)
Duran
adequate FA catcher
Rotation of:
Sale Whitlock Houck Paxton Wacha type ...with promising reinforcements at AAA.
That's a potentially competitive team. And ideally the professional GM of the Boston Red Sox can do better than I can in 5 minutes of thinking about it at building a roster.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 13, 2022 13:16:32 GMT -5
This squad minus almost certainly X and Nate (maybe JDM) = optimism? It's this squad minus X and Nate and JDM and Kiké and $16 million owed to Price, which = $80 million to spend. Just think: Bloom could add eleven Wachas!
In all seriousness, it's going to be fascinating to see what they do in the next 11 months. It'll be really hard to get, say, the 17 WAR they got out of those four players in 2021 even from $80 million to spend (and hopefully a chunk of that will go into a Devers extension). But it's also a ton of flexibility for Bloom to work with, and at least some cost-controlled talent should be trickling up from the minors.
For just one $80 million shopping spree scenario... they might add $15 million as part of a Devers extension, sign Trea Turner for $27 million, sign Jose Abreu for $18 million, and still have room left over for three Wachas!
ADD: Oh, and $12 million (or is it $8 million?) off the books for JBJ. Could help them upgrade at catcher or OF or pitching.
None of what you said makes this crappy OF any better.. in fact probably makes it worse if Hernandez leaves. I don't disagree there's avenues that they can go with to quickly rebuild on the fly but Bloom hasn't done anything one way or another for me to think he can or can't do that.
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Post by manfred on May 13, 2022 13:19:07 GMT -5
This squad minus almost certainly X and Nate (maybe JDM) = optimism? It's this squad minus X and Nate and JDM and Kiké and $16 million owed to Price, which = $80 million to spend. Just think: Bloom could add eleven Wachas!
In all seriousness, it's going to be fascinating to see what they do in the next 11 months. It'll be really hard to get, say, the 17 WAR they got out of those four players in 2021 even from $80 million to spend (and hopefully a chunk of that will go into a Devers extension). But it's also a ton of flexibility for Bloom to work with, and at least some cost-controlled talent should be trickling up from the minors.
For just one $80 million shopping spree scenario... they might add $15 million as part of a Devers extension, sign Trea Turner for $27 million, sign Jose Abreu for $18 million, and still have room left over for three Wachas!
ADD: Oh, and $12 million (or is it $8 million?) off the books for JBJ. Could help them upgrade at catcher or OF or pitching.
I think this is true in theory. The problem is, as we saw this off season, making offers doesn’t automatically result in getting guys. So we are just as likely to dump our stars and get left with a big chunk of unspent change. I mean… if you really subtracted X, Nate, JDM, and Devers, you’d need to spend a fortune *just to recoup* those losses. That seems almost impossible in one off season. That is why I view a huge dump as writing of not just this season but at least next. I still hope they keep Devers (I’ve lost all hope on the others), which would help a lot.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 13, 2022 13:23:31 GMT -5
It's this squad minus X and Nate and JDM and Kiké and $16 million owed to Price, which = $80 million to spend. Just think: Bloom could add eleven Wachas!
In all seriousness, it's going to be fascinating to see what they do in the next 11 months. It'll be really hard to get, say, the 17 WAR they got out of those four players in 2021 even from $80 million to spend (and hopefully a chunk of that will go into a Devers extension). But it's also a ton of flexibility for Bloom to work with, and at least some cost-controlled talent should be trickling up from the minors.
For just one $80 million shopping spree scenario... they might add $15 million as part of a Devers extension, sign Trea Turner for $27 million, sign Jose Abreu for $18 million, and still have room left over for three Wachas!
ADD: Oh, and $12 million (or is it $8 million?) off the books for JBJ. Could help them upgrade at catcher or OF or pitching.
I think this is true in theory. The problem is, as we saw this off season, making offers doesn’t automatically result in getting guys. So we are just as likely to dump our stars and get left with a big chunk of unspent change. I mean… if you really subtracted X, Nate, JDM, and Devers, you’d need to spend a fortune *just to recoup* those losses. That seems almost impossible in one off season. That is why I view a huge dump as writing of not just this season but at least next. I still hope they keep Devers (I’ve lost all hope on the others), which would help a lot. Yep, even if they did replace X with turner and JD with Abreu. Offensively those are basically side ways moves that still leaves all the holes they currently have right now. Then add losing Eovaldi and on paper that teams worse. Yes they'd still have some money left to plug some of the holes but it'd be tough unless and until Casas/Duran/downs shows they are capable of playing a role in the majors. Edit: and I am very bullish on Casas but as we know no prospect is a sure thing and if he does pan out doesn't plug the major holes in the OF.
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Post by incandenza on May 13, 2022 13:27:24 GMT -5
It's this squad minus X and Nate and JDM and Kiké and $16 million owed to Price, which = $80 million to spend. Just think: Bloom could add eleven Wachas!
In all seriousness, it's going to be fascinating to see what they do in the next 11 months. It'll be really hard to get, say, the 17 WAR they got out of those four players in 2021 even from $80 million to spend (and hopefully a chunk of that will go into a Devers extension). But it's also a ton of flexibility for Bloom to work with, and at least some cost-controlled talent should be trickling up from the minors.
For just one $80 million shopping spree scenario... they might add $15 million as part of a Devers extension, sign Trea Turner for $27 million, sign Jose Abreu for $18 million, and still have room left over for three Wachas!
ADD: Oh, and $12 million (or is it $8 million?) off the books for JBJ. Could help them upgrade at catcher or OF or pitching.
I think this is true in theory. The problem is, as we saw this off season, making offers doesn’t automatically result in getting guys. So we are just as likely to dump our stars and get left with a big chunk of unspent change. I mean… if you really subtracted X, Nate, JDM, and Devers, you’d need to spend a fortune *just to recoup* those losses. That seems almost impossible in one off season. That is why I view a huge dump as writing of not just this season but at least next. I still hope they keep Devers (I’ve lost all hope on the others), which would help a lot. People keep saying this is a possibility, but not once has this team entered a season in recent memory when they weren't at least within spitting distance of the CBT. Bloom might not catch the biggest fish, but he'll at least snag a few mackerels (with a pretty good record so far of his mid-tier acquisitions overperforming).
So at the very least they can enter next season with a bunch of 1-year deals and hope that some of the young talent comes through and make a run at the playoffs. There's no opportunity cost if that doesn't work out. Meanwhile, it's not like we have an amazing crop of prospects ready to take the reins in 2024; Casas can only add so much value on his own. So what exactly are we waiting for?
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