Post by incandenza on May 14, 2022 14:12:20 GMT -5
There are a lot of people reacting to the standings right now which is fair, but also look at the Red Sox only being 4.5 games out of a wildcard spot. That isn't that hard to make up if a few more players play up to their previous standards. Sure the AL East is tough, but if the season ended now the Blue Jays would get the last wild card spot. They are only one game over 500 and have a worse run differential then the Red Sox. Post season play not out of reach for this team yet.
That being said, if they are still under 500 nearer to the trade deadline they should deal every asset they have that are unlikely to retain for the 2023 season (Bogarets, Martinez, Eovaldi, Wacha, Hill, Hernandez, Bradley, Strahm, Vasquez) for the best return possible. Sell off and give some of the younger players (Casas, Downs, Durran, Wong, Seabold, Winckowski, Fitzgerald) the playing time to see what we really have with them.
First off, people need to step back from the ledge and take a breath. With the expanded playoffs, the Red Sox are most definitely in the playoff hunt. Fangraphs gives them a 20.7% chance of making the playoffs. Those are far better odds than they had in 04 against the Yankees. This is the equivalent of being down 4-0 after two innings. There is a lot of baseball left to play.
Second, this team probably over-performed last year. It's probably under-performing now. You're never as good as you are when you're going good; you're never as bad as you are when you're going bad. Odds are high that the team will start playing better. Shoot, they are 2-0 with one rob-job since Cora shaved. Things are looking up.
IMO, they are two players away from the playoff roster -- a big RH RF bat, and a back of the bullpen arm. The first will have to come via a Schwarber-like trade. The second, I believe, could be Chris Sale. He came up as a reliever. He has the skill set and intensity for it. The demand on his arm may actually be less than starting. If Sale can reinvent himself a la Dennis Eckersley, the rest of the staff falls into place. Once you're in the playoffs -- anything can happen. To paraphrase Kevin Millar, don't let us win our way back in.
However, things may not turn around enough by the trade deadline, and NNY is correct: there are at least twelve players to potentially flip. (I'd add JD Martinez, Diekman, and Barnes to his list.) Several things I think I know about the team's management gives me an inkling of how they may proceed.
We learned from Trevor Story that this team has money and is willing to spend it.
We learned from Mookie Betts that if a player wants to leave, no amount of money will keep him.
Nathan Eovaldi, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers all want to stay with the Boston Red Sox. We also know Bogaerts, who has been outstanding defensively this season, is willing to move off SS about the time Marcelo Mayer is ready. But for an outrageous outside offer, there's a more than likely chance all three are re-signed.
Selling off the other fungible assets when all hope is lost will likely happen, but only at the deadline and only if the return is good. In CBloom's book, good means above market value. There's no one on the list the team should feel urgency to dump as I believe management expects the team to be competitive every season, and each of those players could have a role next year.
The exception to that would be JD. He surely has a few productive years remaining, but he is not what he was, and he doesn't look like the kind of player the team wants or needs to extend. Because he's on a short contract and will have a strong market among playoff contenders, I think Martinez is the most likely player to be flipped at the deadline if the team is truly out of contention.
But we are far from that point at the moment.
I don't mean to be nitpicky, because I agree with most of what you say here, but... what games have you been watching to think Bogaerts has been outstanding defensively? He has looked FAR from outstanding to me. And DRS and OAA are both at -4, which is pretty atrocious for just one-fifth of a season.
It brings me no joy to say it, but I would be very surprised if Bogaerts is back next year. He's not a good fit at short for any team, and there's nowhere else he really fits on the Red Sox.