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Mediocrity vs Tank-a-thon
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Post by redsoxfan2 on May 12, 2022 15:42:29 GMT -5
Assuming that this team doesn't have the ability to go on some 10-15 win streak or go .700 over the course of a month and finish the season with a 60+% winning percentage, what is the preference for you with this team?
With a 75-80 wins you get some enjoyment, get to see this team flash a bit and have some playoff aspirations.
With less than 65, you get better drafting positioning and you'll know you won't be making a playoff run and that you will be selling spare parts for future seasons.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2022 15:55:27 GMT -5
Assuming that this team doesn't have the ability to go on some 10-15 win streak or go .700 over the course of a month and finish the season with a 60+% winning percentage, what is the preference for you with this team? With a 75-80 wins you get some enjoyment, get to see this team flash a bit and have some playoff aspirations. With less than 65, you get better drafting positioning and you'll know you won't be making a playoff run and that you will be selling spare parts for future seasons. For the Red Sox to win less than 65 games the team plane would need to literally crash and kill all the players!
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Post by redsoxfan2 on May 12, 2022 16:32:20 GMT -5
Assuming that this team doesn't have the ability to go on some 10-15 win streak or go .700 over the course of a month and finish the season with a 60+% winning percentage, what is the preference for you with this team? With a 75-80 wins you get some enjoyment, get to see this team flash a bit and have some playoff aspirations. With less than 65, you get better drafting positioning and you'll know you won't be making a playoff run and that you will be selling spare parts for future seasons. For the Red Sox to win less than 65 games the team plane would need to literally crash and kill all the players! Their winning percentage thus far is .355. That would be 57-58 wins. Not saying they'll be this bad, but they're more likely to be a sub-65 than a 90+, I think.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 12, 2022 16:50:53 GMT -5
The big thing is if they sell off all their free agents to be. This season in particular they can get a very big haul - possibly multiple top 100 prospects, plus several guys above the "lottery ticket" tier.
Once they cross that barrier, losing more games to improve your draft position is pretty meh. Improving by a a few slots isn't a big deal.
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Post by dirtdog on May 12, 2022 16:57:05 GMT -5
Give me a top draft pick for $500 Alex.
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Post by dirtdog on May 12, 2022 17:01:38 GMT -5
The NL Central second place St. Louis Cardinals have been the favorite in recent trade talks revolving around Bogaerts. They have the farm system to compete and are in dire need of a shortstop. If a trade were to happen between the two teams, MLB Insider Jim Bowden presents a scenario where the Cardinals acquire Bogaerts for their No. 2 prospect, 2B/3B Nolan Gorman, contingent on Bogaerts signing a long term contract in the range of eight years. Taking a deeper dive into this potential trade, Gorman has produced at the Triple-A level of the Cardinals organization so far this season. His line sits at .287/.350/.648 with 12 homers, 3 doubles, 18 RBIs, 23 runs, and 31 hits in 28 games. If this trade were to happen, the Red Sox could place Gorman at second base and replace Bogaerts at shortstop with offseason addition Trevor Story, who played 733 games there with the Colorado Rockies. bosoxinjection.com/2022/05/12/red-sox-news-xander-bogaerts-trade-rumors-start-heat/?a_aid=36534Sorry I didnt know where else to put this and this a blog site, and Bowden speculating, but I found it interesting.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on May 12, 2022 17:50:17 GMT -5
The NL Central second place St. Louis Cardinals have been the favorite in recent trade talks revolving around Bogaerts. They have the farm system to compete and are in dire need of a shortstop. If a trade were to happen between the two teams, MLB Insider Jim Bowden presents a scenario where the Cardinals acquire Bogaerts for their No. 2 prospect, 2B/3B Nolan Gorman, contingent on Bogaerts signing a long term contract in the range of eight years. Taking a deeper dive into this potential trade, Gorman has produced at the Triple-A level of the Cardinals organization so far this season. His line sits at .287/.350/.648 with 12 homers, 3 doubles, 18 RBIs, 23 runs, and 31 hits in 28 games. If this trade were to happen, the Red Sox could place Gorman at second base and replace Bogaerts at shortstop with offseason addition Trevor Story, who played 733 games there with the Colorado Rockies. bosoxinjection.com/2022/05/12/red-sox-news-xander-bogaerts-trade-rumors-start-heat/?a_aid=36534Sorry I didnt know where else to put this and this a blog site, and Bowden speculating, but I found it interesting. The kick in the teeth here though means no hopes of bringing back Xander, but that's rare to begin with.
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Post by manfred on May 12, 2022 17:54:55 GMT -5
The NL Central second place St. Louis Cardinals have been the favorite in recent trade talks revolving around Bogaerts. They have the farm system to compete and are in dire need of a shortstop. If a trade were to happen between the two teams, MLB Insider Jim Bowden presents a scenario where the Cardinals acquire Bogaerts for their No. 2 prospect, 2B/3B Nolan Gorman, contingent on Bogaerts signing a long term contract in the range of eight years. Taking a deeper dive into this potential trade, Gorman has produced at the Triple-A level of the Cardinals organization so far this season. His line sits at .287/.350/.648 with 12 homers, 3 doubles, 18 RBIs, 23 runs, and 31 hits in 28 games. If this trade were to happen, the Red Sox could place Gorman at second base and replace Bogaerts at shortstop with offseason addition Trevor Story, who played 733 games there with the Colorado Rockies. bosoxinjection.com/2022/05/12/red-sox-news-xander-bogaerts-trade-rumors-start-heat/?a_aid=36534Sorry I didnt know where else to put this and this a blog site, and Bowden speculating, but I found it interesting. The kick in the teeth here though means no hopes of bringing back Xander, but that's rare to begin with. It isn’t just losing their leader… it is losing their best player. So if they trade X for minor leaguers, is the middle infield Story and Downs next year? So… we accept that is worse, right? So tanking *and* trading doesn’t just mean we suck this year but also that we are worse off next year. That is *just* trading X. Throw in Eovaldi and — god save us — Devers, and there is a zero percent chance of making up for those three next year.
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Post by dirtdog on May 12, 2022 18:02:34 GMT -5
The NL Central second place St. Louis Cardinals have been the favorite in recent trade talks revolving around Bogaerts. They have the farm system to compete and are in dire need of a shortstop. If a trade were to happen between the two teams, MLB Insider Jim Bowden presents a scenario where the Cardinals acquire Bogaerts for their No. 2 prospect, 2B/3B Nolan Gorman, contingent on Bogaerts signing a long term contract in the range of eight years. Taking a deeper dive into this potential trade, Gorman has produced at the Triple-A level of the Cardinals organization so far this season. His line sits at .287/.350/.648 with 12 homers, 3 doubles, 18 RBIs, 23 runs, and 31 hits in 28 games. If this trade were to happen, the Red Sox could place Gorman at second base and replace Bogaerts at shortstop with offseason addition Trevor Story, who played 733 games there with the Colorado Rockies. bosoxinjection.com/2022/05/12/red-sox-news-xander-bogaerts-trade-rumors-start-heat/?a_aid=36534Sorry I didnt know where else to put this and this a blog site, and Bowden speculating, but I found it interesting. The kick in the teeth here though means no hopes of bringing back Xander, but that's rare to begin with. Not sure what happens with X. The FO view is probably they dont want to buy the declining years as he turns 30 soon. Not sure if they consider how they treat their legacy FA as important to other FAs from other teams they might sign down the road. Those FAs might think if they can do X like that what does that say for how they will treat me? Anyway I really thought the interesting part of the blog was what type of compensation they might get should they deal him in what looks to be a non playoff season.
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Post by costpet on May 12, 2022 18:53:11 GMT -5
Yes, they’ll probably lose X and JD as well. But they had better figure out a way to keep Devers. He’s still young and probably our best hitter for a long time. 10 years at $300k would work for both parties.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on May 12, 2022 18:57:03 GMT -5
The kick in the teeth here though means no hopes of bringing back Xander, but that's rare to begin with. It isn’t just losing their leader… it is losing their best player. So if they trade X for minor leaguers, is the middle infield Story and Downs next year? So… we accept that is worse, right? So tanking *and* trading doesn’t just mean we suck this year but also that we are worse off next year. That is *just* trading X. Throw in Eovaldi and — god save us — Devers, and there is a zero percent chance of making up for those three next year. Unfortunately, Xander could be gone regardless by this point. They have no leverage to hang on to him anymore. What if NY decides they could use a new SS or 3B? At this point, if they're out of it, and they can get very good prospects, I take it. The can't risk him going elsewhere and being extra screwed after a lost season. There's still Correa out there as an option, but I wonder if this organization is dug in on Story at SS?
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Post by Guidas on May 12, 2022 19:08:58 GMT -5
What are the odds of the union approving the international draft by the 25th of July? If that doesn’t happen there will be QOs at the end of the season.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 12, 2022 19:18:06 GMT -5
What are the odds of the union approving the international draft by the 25th of July? If that doesn’t happen there will be QOs at the end of the season. Who knows. The Red Sox are in the rich team that went over the CBT category, which means they are only eligible to receive a pick after the 4th round. And the player needs to sign for $50 million to get it.
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Post by vmoss on May 12, 2022 19:25:30 GMT -5
Sox may very likely cut payroll below tax/compensation lines if things don't turn around.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 12, 2022 19:27:00 GMT -5
Sox may very likely cut payroll below tax/compensation lines if things don't turn around. They are just a hair over. They can sell off everyone, pay most of their salary to get a better return, and still sneak under the CBT.
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Post by beasleyrockah on May 12, 2022 19:28:56 GMT -5
I want to see the guys who are here for 2023 and beyond rebound and finish the season strong. I want guys like Paxton and Sale to come back healthy and pitch well. I want Houck and Whitlock to solidify themselves as guys you'll want in the rotation for years to come. I want Story, Verdugo, Dalbec and others to play good baseball. If these things happen, they won't be bad enough to lose that many games.
Rooting for a bad draft pick requires wanting your own guys to suck or get hurt, that's how teams lose a ton of games. Tanking for pick #5-8 vs finishing around .500 and getting pick #16-18 comes with actual consequences, you lose value in other real ways. It's not as simple as "well we're not making the playoffs so let's destroy the team so they lose close to 100 games".
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Post by lostinnewjersey on May 12, 2022 19:48:53 GMT -5
Trading guys before the deaadline is not the same thing as tanking. It's just smart management. If you know you're not going to make the postseason, and you know you're unlikely to be able to retain a player whose free agency is looming, it would be foolish not to trade him to make the team stronger in the future. That's exactly what the Yankees did in 2016. They weren't aiming for a high draft position. They were just being realistic, and they ended up getting Gleyber Torres as a result.
Late in the lost 2020 season, a lot of us on this board were tracking the Red Sox' draft position. For a while it looked like they'd pick second, then it was third, and it ended up fourth because guys like Houck and Dalbec came to play. They certainly weren't interested in tanking -- they had things to prove, just like literally every other MLB player. And pick # 4 turned out just great for us anyway, so all that avid attention turned out to be somewhat pointless.
If Bloom trades Bogaerts, Eovaldi, or anyone else, it will be with the goal of improving the team down the road, starting in 2023. The goal will not be to draft higher.
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Post by manfred on May 12, 2022 20:00:30 GMT -5
Trading guys before the deaadline is not the same thing as tanking. It's just smart management. If you know you're not going to make the postseason, and you know you're unlikely to be able to retain a player whose free agency is looming, it would be foolish not to trade him to make the team stronger in the future. That's exactly what the Yankees did in 2016. They weren't aiming for a high draft position. They were just being realistic, and they ended up getting Gleyber Torres as a result. Late in the lost 2020 season, a lot of us on this board were tracking the Red Sox' draft position. For a while it looked like they'd pick second, then it was third, and it ended up fourth because guys like Houck and Dalbec came to play. They certainly weren't interested in tanking -- they had things to prove, just like literally every other MLB player. And pick # 4 turned out just great for us anyway, so all that avid attention turned out to be somewhat pointless. If Bloom trades Bogaerts, Eovaldi, or anyone else, it will be with the goal of improving the team down the road, starting in 2023. The goal will not be to draft higher. But if you trade X and Eovaldi… your best player and your best pitcher… how do you even get back to equal for 2023, much less actually be a better team? You’d have to sign equal level guys just to be… this team. I can see trading Eovaldi because a) you have to hope Sale gives you something next year and you g guys keep developing. But not resigning X and/or Devers creates a hole they’ll have to invest massively just to return to even. I mean, yeah, you can sign Correa, but is the team better off with a longterm deal with him than with X? I’ll leave it as a question: How do the people who would sell, say, X and Eovaldi see that keeping them on track to contend in 2023? What moves do you do with those trades?
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Post by julyanmorley on May 12, 2022 20:05:49 GMT -5
Dude, Eovaldi is a free agent. The only way he is on the team in 2023 is if they pay him a sum of money so big that everyone is at least a little uncomfortable.
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Post by manfred on May 12, 2022 20:14:43 GMT -5
Dude, Eovaldi is a free agent. The only way he is on the team in 2023 is if they pay him a sum of money so big that everyone is at least a little uncomfortable. That is why I said I’m ok trading him. But you have to factor it in one way or the other, so the “these will make us better in 2023” takes need some fleshing out.
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Post by lostinnewjersey on May 12, 2022 20:24:55 GMT -5
If they think they can and should resign Bogaerts, then sure, they can keep him. My post was predicated on the premise that they don't think they can resign him. And it's certainly not a slam dunk that they should give him a massive multi-year contract. He should not stay at shortstop very many more years, but someone will end up paying him for those years at a shortstop salary. His profile won't play as well in left field, especially if his offense declines (as it is likely to do).
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 12, 2022 20:50:23 GMT -5
I voted for the tank job, but I think a tougher question is whether you'd prefer about 83-84 wins or 73-74. The problem with 84 is that while you don't have a lost season that gives your fans no joy or hope, you probably miss the PS. But you're likely around the fringes of PS contention at the deadline, meaning you don't sell anything. And you end up drafting somewhere in the 16 to 20 range, instead of much higher like you would with a 73-win stinker.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 12, 2022 21:04:05 GMT -5
www.baseballamerica.com/stories/guide-to-the-new-cba-draft-lottery-expanded-playoffs-and-more/It's worth reviewing what the RS would get for their FAs if they don't trade them before they hit the market next winter. It's safe to assume that if the RS continue to remain outside PS contention, they'll find a way to get below the CBT. Therefore, this would apply: "Clubs that do not receive revenue sharing but don’t go over the CBT will receive a third-round pick if the player signs for more than $55 million or $23 million in average annual value, a compensation round B pick if the player signs for more than $100 million or $30 million in average annual value, or a compensation round A pick if the player signs for more than $150 million or $40 million in average annual value."I see that as meaning that JDM would be on the bubble as whether he brings us a third-rounder or nothing at all. He would need a four-year deal to get $55M or more. I lean toward thinking he'd get it. X and Eo would each bring a comp round B pick at worst and each would have a shot at getting $150M or more, meaning we'd get a comp round A pick. In all the case of all three of these guys, it of course depends on what kind of year they have for the Tank Sox. Even if we assume the best-case scenario for each of these guys as FAs, we'd get a better return by trading them at the deadline.
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Post by Guidas on May 12, 2022 21:08:01 GMT -5
What are the odds of the union approving the international draft by the 25th of July? If that doesn’t happen there will be QOs at the end of the season. Who knows. The Red Sox are in the rich team that went over the CBT category, which means they are only eligible to receive a pick after the 4th round. And the player needs to sign for $50 million to get it. Welp, unless the deal is approved by the union, looks like they’ll be giving QOs to Xander, JD and Eovaldi because they’re going to be within 3 games of the wild card by the deadline and ownership will be afraid to wave the white flag so will have to play it out.
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Post by incandenza on May 12, 2022 21:17:28 GMT -5
www.baseballamerica.com/stories/guide-to-the-new-cba-draft-lottery-expanded-playoffs-and-more/It's worth reviewing what the RS would get for their FAs if they don't trade them before they hit the market next winter. It's safe to assume that if the RS continue to remain outside PS contention, they'll find a way to get below the CBT. Therefore, this would apply: "Clubs that do not receive revenue sharing but don’t go over the CBT will receive a third-round pick if the player signs for more than $55 million or $23 million in average annual value, a compensation round B pick if the player signs for more than $100 million or $30 million in average annual value, or a compensation round A pick if the player signs for more than $150 million or $40 million in average annual value."I see that as meaning that JDM would be on the bubble as whether he brings us a third-rounder or nothing at all. He would need a four-year deal to get $55M or more. I lean toward thinking he'd get it. X and Eo would each bring a comp round B pick at worst and each would have a shot at getting $150M or more, meaning we'd get a comp round A pick. In all the case of all three of these guys, it of course depends on what kind of year they have for the Tank Sox.Even if we assume the best-case scenario for each of these guys as FAs, we'd get a better return by trading them at the deadline. I doubt Eovaldi has much of a shot at $150 million. Ray and Gausman got $110-115 and I don't think he's at a higher tier than those guys even if his 2022 matches last season. Stroman's 3/71 and Eduardo's 5/77 seem like better comps to me, though if someone gives him 5 years he might crack 9 figures. (The guy hasn't had an ERA below 3.72 since 2013...)
Anyways, yeah, a trade is clearly the better option.
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