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Mediocrity vs Tank-a-thon
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Post by manfred on May 13, 2022 13:48:50 GMT -5
I think this is true in theory. The problem is, as we saw this off season, making offers doesn’t automatically result in getting guys. So we are just as likely to dump our stars and get left with a big chunk of unspent change. I mean… if you really subtracted X, Nate, JDM, and Devers, you’d need to spend a fortune *just to recoup* those losses. That seems almost impossible in one off season. That is why I view a huge dump as writing of not just this season but at least next. I still hope they keep Devers (I’ve lost all hope on the others), which would help a lot. People keep saying this is a possibility, but not once has this team entered a season in recent memory when they weren't at least within spitting distance of the CBT. Bloom might not catch the biggest fish, but he'll at least snag a few mackerels (with a pretty good record so far of his mid-tier acquisitions overperforming).
So at the very least they can enter next season with a bunch of 1-year deals and hope that some of the young talent comes through and make a run at the playoffs. There's no opportunity cost if that doesn't work out. Meanwhile, it's not like we have an amazing crop of prospects ready to take the reins in 2024; Casas can only add so much value on his own. So what exactly are we waiting for?
But isn’t that actually an argument for keeping guys? Next off season is bot a great FA crop AND we don’t have a “next wave” — so aren’t X and Devers about the best options? Now… if the concern (and I get it) is that 3 years from now X especially becomes a problem, then perhaps with an eye to 2025 etc you let him walk. But in doing so, you can’t make a great case that they are playing to win a WS in the next few years. And the multiple Wachas may well look a lot worse by season’s end. He’s been great, but he is on the IL. Let’s see how that plays out.
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Post by jimed14 on May 13, 2022 13:50:28 GMT -5
I refuse to answer baited questions like this. There are more than two options.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 13, 2022 14:07:59 GMT -5
There is a next wave coming next year. Casas is very likely to be an every day player. Bello, Walter and Winckowski each have a decent shot of pitching a lot of innings. Downs and Duran have some chance of being significant contributors. And we'll see who gets added before the trade deadline. If that doesn't seem like much, consider that in the 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 seasons combined the Red Sox farm system contributed..Tanner Houck and a few guys that got a shot and failed.
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Post by notstarboard on May 13, 2022 14:25:44 GMT -5
Trading guys before the deaadline is not the same thing as tanking. It's just smart management. If you know you're not going to make the postseason, and you know you're unlikely to be able to retain a player whose free agency is looming, it would be foolish not to trade him to make the team stronger in the future. That's exactly what the Yankees did in 2016. They weren't aiming for a high draft position. They were just being realistic, and they ended up getting Gleyber Torres as a result. Late in the lost 2020 season, a lot of us on this board were tracking the Red Sox' draft position. For a while it looked like they'd pick second, then it was third, and it ended up fourth because guys like Houck and Dalbec came to play. They certainly weren't interested in tanking -- they had things to prove, just like literally every other MLB player. And pick # 4 turned out just great for us anyway, so all that avid attention turned out to be somewhat pointless. If Bloom trades Bogaerts, Eovaldi, or anyone else, it will be with the goal of improving the team down the road, starting in 2023. The goal will not be to draft higher. But if you trade X and Eovaldi… your best player and your best pitcher… how do you even get back to equal for 2023, much less actually be a better team? You’d have to sign equal level guys just to be… this team. I can see trading Eovaldi because a) you have to hope Sale gives you something next year and you g guys keep developing. But not resigning X and/or Devers creates a hole they’ll have to invest massively just to return to even. I mean, yeah, you can sign Correa, but is the team better off with a longterm deal with him than with X? I’ll leave it as a question: How do the people who would sell, say, X and Eovaldi see that keeping them on track to contend in 2023? What moves do you do with those trades? Re-signing X, Eovaldi, etc. is also investing massively just to return to even, though. If you have to invest massively to return to even either way, why not also acquire prospects instead of wasting those assets on an extra couple wins in a lost season? If we think one or more of these guys is the best FA fit at his asking price, we can still re-sign them a la Aroldis Chapman. If not, all the better; if we hadn't traded them they would have walked for nothing (or a less valuable draft pick), so trading them is the only rational decision.
I think the only question is if and when to pull the plug on 2022.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 13, 2022 14:34:17 GMT -5
I think the only question is if and when to pull the plug on 2022.
I think NESN considerations will prevent them doing it early.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 13, 2022 14:36:30 GMT -5
But if you trade X and Eovaldi… your best player and your best pitcher… how do you even get back to equal for 2023, much less actually be a better team? You’d have to sign equal level guys just to be… this team. I can see trading Eovaldi because a) you have to hope Sale gives you something next year and you g guys keep developing. But not resigning X and/or Devers creates a hole they’ll have to invest massively just to return to even. I mean, yeah, you can sign Correa, but is the team better off with a longterm deal with him than with X? I’ll leave it as a question: How do the people who would sell, say, X and Eovaldi see that keeping them on track to contend in 2023? What moves do you do with those trades? Re-signing X, Eovaldi, etc. is also investing massively just to return to even, though. If you have to invest massively to return to even either way, why not also acquire prospects instead of wasting those assets on an extra couple wins in a lost season? If we think one or more of these guys is the best FA fit at his asking price, we can still re-sign them a la Aroldis Chapman. If not, all the better; if we hadn't traded them they would have walked for nothing (or a less valuable draft pick), so trading them is the only rational decision.
I think the only question is if and when to pull the plug on 2022.
Well the argument for bringing X back and returning to even next year would be that bloom/front office buys into the theory that they've been unlucky/snake bitten this year. That taking the money from JD/Price/Hernandez/Eovaldi and allocating it elsewhere to bring in FAs that fill holes they can lengthen the lineup and that a prospect or two(Casas, downs, Duran) can add to that thought they can rebound rather quickly. I gotta see how the rest of the season goes, certainly at least through June because I am thoroughly on the fence right now to what I think they should do. I really can buy either argument. If you asked me right now I have to make a decision then I'd probably start flipping guys now. Luckily for everyone I am not in charge of making that decision.
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Post by notstarboard on May 13, 2022 14:37:57 GMT -5
I think the only question is if and when to pull the plug on 2022.
I think NESN considerations will prevent them doing it early. I agree that I don't expect them to do it early as well, but that's also fine since the deadline trade market hasn't had a chance to shape up yet. If and when we decide we're out this year, though, I'd like to see a lot of trades of pending FAs for the reasons stated.
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Post by notstarboard on May 13, 2022 14:41:28 GMT -5
Re-signing X, Eovaldi, etc. is also investing massively just to return to even, though. If you have to invest massively to return to even either way, why not also acquire prospects instead of wasting those assets on an extra couple wins in a lost season? If we think one or more of these guys is the best FA fit at his asking price, we can still re-sign them a la Aroldis Chapman. If not, all the better; if we hadn't traded them they would have walked for nothing (or a less valuable draft pick), so trading them is the only rational decision.
I think the only question is if and when to pull the plug on 2022.
Well the argument for bringing X back and returning to even next year would be that bloom/front office buys into the theory that they've been unlucky/snake bitten this year. That taking the money from JD/Price/Hernandez/Eovaldi and allocating it elsewhere to bring in FAs that fill holes they can lengthen the lineup and that a prospect or two(Casas, downs, Duran) can add to that thought they can rebound rather quickly. I gotta see how the rest of the season goes, certainly at least through June because I am thoroughly on the fence right now to what I think they should do. I really can buy either argument. If you asked me right now I have to make a decision then I'd probably start flipping guys now. Luckily for everyone I am not in charge of making that decision. I think that's a fine argument. It doesn't mean that if the Sox are out of contention at the deadline they shouldn't trade FAs with value, though. Unless they're willing to discuss and sign an extension then and there, you're already going to have to pursue them in free agency if you want them back. Given that fact, the only choice is whether you'd prefer a couple marginal wins in August in September in a lost season or a large prospect haul. Taking the prospects is a pretty easy choice for me.
I'm with you that I'm not sure what to do yet, though. It's still really early, so I think it's fine to wait another month plus and see how things are going then.
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Post by incandenza on May 13, 2022 14:44:08 GMT -5
People keep saying this is a possibility, but not once has this team entered a season in recent memory when they weren't at least within spitting distance of the CBT. Bloom might not catch the biggest fish, but he'll at least snag a few mackerels (with a pretty good record so far of his mid-tier acquisitions overperforming).
So at the very least they can enter next season with a bunch of 1-year deals and hope that some of the young talent comes through and make a run at the playoffs. There's no opportunity cost if that doesn't work out. Meanwhile, it's not like we have an amazing crop of prospects ready to take the reins in 2024; Casas can only add so much value on his own. So what exactly are we waiting for?
But isn’t that actually an argument for keeping guys? Next off season is bot a great FA crop AND we don’t have a “next wave” — so aren’t X and Devers about the best options? Now… if the concern (and I get it) is that 3 years from now X especially becomes a problem, then perhaps with an eye to 2025 etc you let him walk. But in doing so, you can’t make a great case that they are playing to win a WS in the next few years. And the multiple Wachas may well look a lot worse by season’s end. He’s been great, but he is on the IL. Let’s see how that plays out. Oh, well to be clear, that $80-90 million they have to spend can include re-investment in those players. I included a Devers extension in that myself. Maybe they'll just re-sign Xander rather than Trea Turner (though I think the writing's been on the wall for a while with Bogaerts). Maybe Eovaldi if he wants to stay, but he doesn't strike me as a very Bloomian target. I could even see JDM re-signed for $10 million or something.
At any rate, I'm not arguing for or against any particular allocation of funds. My point was just that you can't say "the 2023 Red Sox will be the same squad minus Bogaerts, Eovaldi, and JDM; ergo, they will suck." They've got endless possibilities for how they might retain or replace those guys.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 13, 2022 14:45:57 GMT -5
Well the argument for bringing X back and returning to even next year would be that bloom/front office buys into the theory that they've been unlucky/snake bitten this year. That taking the money from JD/Price/Hernandez/Eovaldi and allocating it elsewhere to bring in FAs that fill holes they can lengthen the lineup and that a prospect or two(Casas, downs, Duran) can add to that thought they can rebound rather quickly. I gotta see how the rest of the season goes, certainly at least through June because I am thoroughly on the fence right now to what I think they should do. I really can buy either argument. If you asked me right now I have to make a decision then I'd probably start flipping guys now. Luckily for everyone I am not in charge of making that decision. I think that's a fine argument. It doesn't mean that if the Sox are out of contention at the deadline they shouldn't trade FAs with value, though. Unless they're willing to discuss and sign an extension then and there, you're already going to have to pursue them in free agency if you want them back. Given that fact, the only choice is whether you'd prefer a couple marginal wins in August in September in a lost season or a large prospect haul. Taking the prospects is a pretty easy choice for me.
I'm with you that I'm not sure what to do yet, though. It's still really early, so I think it's fine to wait another month plus and see how things are going then.
I completely agree that if there comes a time that the FO deems this team be out of it and they have no intention of bringing back X,Eovaldi,JD or any other upcoming FA then it'd be malpractice to not trade them.
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Post by incandenza on May 13, 2022 14:48:42 GMT -5
Re-signing X, Eovaldi, etc. is also investing massively just to return to even, though. If you have to invest massively to return to even either way, why not also acquire prospects instead of wasting those assets on an extra couple wins in a lost season? If we think one or more of these guys is the best FA fit at his asking price, we can still re-sign them a la Aroldis Chapman. If not, all the better; if we hadn't traded them they would have walked for nothing (or a less valuable draft pick), so trading them is the only rational decision.
I think the only question is if and when to pull the plug on 2022.
Well the argument for bringing X back and returning to even next year would be that bloom/front office buys into the theory that they've been unlucky/snake bitten this year. That taking the money from JD/Price/Hernandez/Eovaldi and allocating it elsewhere to bring in FAs that fill holes they can lengthen the lineup and that a prospect or two(Casas, downs, Duran) can add to that thought they can rebound rather quickly. I gotta see how the rest of the season goes, certainly at least through June because I am thoroughly on the fence right now to what I think they should do. I really can buy either argument. If you asked me right now I have to make a decision then I'd probably start flipping guys now. Luckily for everyone I am not in charge of making that decision. Being totally on the fence seems entirely approriate in mid-May. Why on earth would they start selling off now when they still have a 20% chance of making the playoffs? They still half a season to dedide.
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Post by redsox43 on May 13, 2022 14:53:40 GMT -5
Couple things, first are you saying 1.5 years of Devers would entice the mariners to trade julio? If so big disagree there, not that they don't have other intriguing pieces. 2nd Campusano has 12 ABs in the majors this year so way too early to be saying he's hitting like Dalbec. In AAA he's got a .368/.400/.561 slash. He's going to be just fine. Lastly the Angels really have nothing I'd be particularly interested in but that's just me personally. I've seen enough of addell to have 0 interest in him being a key piece of a trade for a guy like eovaldi and/or X. Yeah I think 1.5 years of Devers could get you Julio, probably not much else. The Mariners are in a desperate kind of position while trying to be competitive. Probably just my opinion, you might not be wrong and Julio is off limits. Jerry Dipoto comes from the same book as Preller. Big moves that tries to move the needle. I meant to say Campusano hasn't hit so far in his big league career. Yeah 13 at bats is nothing. Not sure what Campusano is doing in the minors. The Padres catchers aren't really doing a great job, you got to figure what they think about him in that context. Adell still intrigues me, but he doesn't really have a position. The bat is so good in AAA. I think the least he figures it out as a part time LF/DH.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 13, 2022 14:54:45 GMT -5
Well the argument for bringing X back and returning to even next year would be that bloom/front office buys into the theory that they've been unlucky/snake bitten this year. That taking the money from JD/Price/Hernandez/Eovaldi and allocating it elsewhere to bring in FAs that fill holes they can lengthen the lineup and that a prospect or two(Casas, downs, Duran) can add to that thought they can rebound rather quickly. I gotta see how the rest of the season goes, certainly at least through June because I am thoroughly on the fence right now to what I think they should do. I really can buy either argument. If you asked me right now I have to make a decision then I'd probably start flipping guys now. Luckily for everyone I am not in charge of making that decision. Being totally on the fence seems entirely approriate in mid-May. Why on earth would they start selling off now when they still have a 20% chance of making the playoffs? They still half a season to dedide. Well, right now they've got 10 WAR to sell off. At the end of July they'll have 5 WAR to sell off.
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Post by redsox43 on May 13, 2022 14:59:50 GMT -5
Guys, they're in fine shape for 2023. They don't look like a top tier contender, but they should be in the big group underneath them. Yeah all of- Frank German Duran Casas Thaddeus Ward Bryan Mata Josh Winckoski Brandon Walter Brayan Bello Could all be up by 2023. There's a lot of quality pitching coming. The Sox are in really good shape. Got to find some bats for next year. That's where this trade deadline comes in.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on May 13, 2022 15:00:18 GMT -5
I refuse to answer baited questions like this. There are more than two options. So you think this team should be buyers and improve on the current roster? It's more of a reflection of the teams .355 winning percentage a month and a half in and jumping to an assumption that if this team isn't going to be over a .600 winning club the rest of the way (possible) then are you happier with them getting a bit hot, winning some games and ultimately falling short, but having a winning season or do you just want them to nose dive?
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Post by ematz1423 on May 13, 2022 15:00:53 GMT -5
Being totally on the fence seems entirely approriate in mid-May. Why on earth would they start selling off now when they still have a 20% chance of making the playoffs? They still half a season to dedide. Well, right now they've got 10 WAR to sell off. At the end of July they'll have 5 WAR to sell off. Theoretically speaking, I'm not quite sure the package would be all that much more if they pulled the trigger right now vs at the deadline. They'd probably get an extra lotto ticket or two but I don't think it would open up the potential headliners other teams may offer. You could possibly make the argument they'd get less right now since right now there's probably a handful of teams that would be hesitant to push the chips in.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on May 13, 2022 15:26:46 GMT -5
The sooner they blow it up the better. Emulate what the Reds are doing and go all in with a full on tank. Get prospects for Devers Xander Nate Vazquez Verdugo and JD. Spend 2023 signing only players on 1 year deals and spending as little as possible. Then what you do is go all out in FA in 2024 to supplement the roster at that time. You won't be able to get anything for Sale at this point so give him the year off. Give Duran as much playing time as possible and let Casas replace JD in June. 65 win team at best and the reward will be excellent down the line!
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Post by ortiz on May 13, 2022 15:38:50 GMT -5
The kick in the teeth here though means no hopes of bringing back Xander, but that's rare to begin with. Not sure what happens with X. The FO view is probably they dont want to buy the declining years as he turns 30 soon. Not sure if they consider how they treat their legacy FA as important to other FAs from other teams they might sign down the road. Those FAs might think if they can do X like that what does that say for how they will treat me? Anyway I really thought the interesting part of the blog was what type of compensation they might get should they deal him in what looks to be a non playoff season. I don't think there are many players out there under the illusion that they are anything specials to their clubs and that they are all expandable (not that this is right) so I think there really would be much of an impact to other FAs. It also works both ways players should always do what is best for them and their families and not sign an under market deal just to be a team player.
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Post by ortiz on May 13, 2022 15:41:14 GMT -5
Trading guys before the deaadline is not the same thing as tanking. It's just smart management. If you know you're not going to make the postseason, and you know you're unlikely to be able to retain a player whose free agency is looming, it would be foolish not to trade him to make the team stronger in the future. That's exactly what the Yankees did in 2016. They weren't aiming for a high draft position. They were just being realistic, and they ended up getting Gleyber Torres as a result. Late in the lost 2020 season, a lot of us on this board were tracking the Red Sox' draft position. For a while it looked like they'd pick second, then it was third, and it ended up fourth because guys like Houck and Dalbec came to play. They certainly weren't interested in tanking -- they had things to prove, just like literally every other MLB player. And pick # 4 turned out just great for us anyway, so all that avid attention turned out to be somewhat pointless. If Bloom trades Bogaerts, Eovaldi, or anyone else, it will be with the goal of improving the team down the road, starting in 2023. The goal will not be to draft higher. But if you trade X and Eovaldi… your best player and your best pitcher… how do you even get back to equal for 2023, much less actually be a better team? You’d have to sign equal level guys just to be… this team. I can see trading Eovaldi because a) you have to hope Sale gives you something next year and you g guys keep developing. But not resigning X and/or Devers creates a hole they’ll have to invest massively just to return to even. I mean, yeah, you can sign Correa, but is the team better off with a longterm deal with him than with X? I’ll leave it as a question: How do the people who would sell, say, X and Eovaldi see that keeping them on track to contend in 2023? What moves do you do with those trades? This team is not on track to contend in 2023 with or without them is the painful answer.
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Post by incandenza on May 13, 2022 15:42:06 GMT -5
The sooner they blow it up the better. Emulate what the Reds are doing and go all in with a full on tank. Get prospects for Devers Xander Nate Vazquez Verdugo and JD. Spend 2023 signing only players on 1 year deals and spending as little as possible. Then what you do is go all out in FA in 2024 to supplement the roster at that time. You won't be able to get anything for Sale at this point so give him the year off. Give Duran as much playing time as possible and let Casas replace JD in June. 65 win team at best and the reward will be excellent down the line! Was it you who was arguing last season *while the team was in playoff position* that they should sell Eovaldi, etc. at the trade deadline because they were clearly incapable of making a deep run in the playoffs?
Regardless, same energy.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on May 13, 2022 15:43:30 GMT -5
The sooner they blow it up the better. Emulate what the Reds are doing and go all in with a full on tank. Get prospects for Devers Xander Nate Vazquez Verdugo and JD. Spend 2023 signing only players on 1 year deals and spending as little as possible. Then what you do is go all out in FA in 2024 to supplement the roster at that time. You won't be able to get anything for Sale at this point so give him the year off. Give Duran as much playing time as possible and let Casas replace JD in June. 65 win team at best and the reward will be excellent down the line! Was it you who was arguing last season *while the team was in playoff position* that they should sell Eovaldi, etc. at the trade deadline because they were clearly incapable of making a deep run in the playoffs?
Regardless, same energy.
It was. But not because of a deep playoff run. It was because people were paying crazy prices for pitching. That Berrios return was insane. Regardless the FO has already made the decision to move on from Xander and probably Devers too. Why not start early?
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Post by ortiz on May 13, 2022 15:46:39 GMT -5
If they aren't going to resign Nate Xander and Devers then trade them immediately for top prospects and Lets Tank for the next 2 seasons. As much as I really don't want to suffer through crummy baseball the next 2 seasons I tend to agree with you. As good as X and rafi have been and are, at least in the case of X I don't see him being a good-great player on their next competitive core. Which if I had to guess is going to be 2024 or later since I don't see enough in the upper minors, or free agency that can solidify this team into competitors in the next year and 3/4. There's so many holes as is and that's before the potential loss of X and JD. The only other avenue would be gutting the farm which I don't see Bloom doing either. Devers will be 27 in 2024, it amazes me how many people forget how young he is.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on May 13, 2022 15:50:15 GMT -5
As much as I really don't want to suffer through crummy baseball the next 2 seasons I tend to agree with you. As good as X and rafi have been and are, at least in the case of X I don't see him being a good-great player on their next competitive core. Which if I had to guess is going to be 2024 or later since I don't see enough in the upper minors, or free agency that can solidify this team into competitors in the next year and 3/4. There's so many holes as is and that's before the potential loss of X and JD. The only other avenue would be gutting the farm which I don't see Bloom doing either. Devers will be 27 in 2024, it amazes me how many people forget how young he is. I'm actually the opposite. I keep forgetting how old Xander is. I keep thinking he's 25.
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Post by beasleyrockah on May 13, 2022 15:57:06 GMT -5
Devers will be 27 in 2024, it amazes me how many people forget how young he is. I'm actually the opposite. I keep forgetting how old Xander is. I keep thinking he's 25.How? He was on the 2013 team. To me it's crazy he's not thirty yet, it feels like he's been in the organization forever.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on May 13, 2022 16:10:43 GMT -5
I'm actually the opposite. I keep forgetting how old Xander is. I keep thinking he's 25.How? He was on the 2013 team. To me it's crazy he's not thirty yet, it feels like he's been in the organization forever. Well, not really. Just when I think of Xander I would probably guess 27. I do forget he came up in 2013. I know how old he is. I just keep getting surprised by it.
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