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Bruins '22 Offseason Thread
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Post by bigmarty58 on May 20, 2022 8:31:33 GMT -5
In the era of cap hockey, management decisions all around are a high wire act. The NHL has made a decision to keep clubs overhead "manageable" and expand the league to ensure that teams make it in their respective areas. With the exception of Arizona it has worked. The downside is that moves that don't work out are magnified due to the lack of wiggle room with the cap. The East teams have never been so competitive. Every Teams senior management is under intense pressure to make the correct decisions more times than not to become an upper echelon club with a chance to go deep in the playoffs. Neeley and Sweeney have done a good job trying to balance their moves. Granted they have not hit on all their draft selections or free agents but we have had for a long time an extremely talented club that has been close in 2019 and currently a top center away. My vote is to keep senior management and have a discussion with Cassidy on trying to incorporate the younger players when the bottom six veterans are not performing. Let's see what Bergy does and let's regroup this summer and look to improve our roster thru free agency.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 20, 2022 8:56:49 GMT -5
I appreciate the response Lots to absorb. One thing I have ultimate confidence in. There isn't a single GM/Org who would go into a season in the tail end of a contending window with 2 rookies. You have a problem with the Ullmark contract, that's fine. But don't give me Swayman/Vladar as your evidence. No GM, under the circumstances, makes that call. I'll dig into the rest later but, at a quick glance, it feels like we compare "our" players/coaches/execs to our own expectations and NOT to their peers. The issue isn't whether or not Sweeney has fallen short of our expectations/hopes (he has). It's whether there is someone put there who could/would do better. If there is, great. I'm in. Otherwise you're just making an emotional decision and could easily end up with a GM who is, decidedly, worse. I want to be clear, I don't dislike Ullmark, I dislike Ullmark at 5 mill per year. Feels like an overpay to me--like Sweeney got played by his agent. "There are 3 more teams interested..." I simply mention Swayman/Vladar is not a sure fire slam dunk, but as an alternative to dumping 5 million into the goalie position that didn't need to be there. There are a lot of guys on this list who outperformed him for less: www.spotrac.com/nhl/free-agents/2021/goaltender/ufa/I can see the rationale for not going with Swayman/Vladar, I just didn't like the outcome we ended up with. I'm not advocating for hiring some other GM tomorrow, I'd advocate for a thorough GM search and hiring a well vetted candidate by people who know what they're doing. However, at this point, is that Neely? No idea... If you think he’s overpaid you simply don’t understand the goaltending market. There are 12 goalies that make more than him per year and there are 6 other goalies that make the same amount. He went 26-10-2 with a 2.45 GAA and a .917 sv%. Do you think he’s not a top 20 goalie? He probably gets a bigger contract if he was a free agent today. You keep saying that money didn’t need to be spent as if Swayman didn’t falter down the stretch, hitting a rookie wall- Ullmark was carrying the position at that critical point in the season. Vladar is just flat out not that good. Flames fans do not like him, which is understandable because there’s a massive drop off in goaltender play when he’s in net compared to Markstrom They spent $6 mill on their goaltender room and it was WELL worth it. They got great bang for their buck. The issues are the contracts to players like Foligno/Reilly/even Nosek. You can get a Nosek type for a million less than they did Like if they didn’t pay Reilly and Foligno they have almost $7 mill for a 2C. That hurts to think about. |
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Post by dangermike on May 24, 2022 21:38:06 GMT -5
I want to be clear, I don't dislike Ullmark, I dislike Ullmark at 5 mill per year. Feels like an overpay to me--like Sweeney got played by his agent. "There are 3 more teams interested..." I simply mention Swayman/Vladar is not a sure fire slam dunk, but as an alternative to dumping 5 million into the goalie position that didn't need to be there. There are a lot of guys on this list who outperformed him for less: www.spotrac.com/nhl/free-agents/2021/goaltender/ufa/I can see the rationale for not going with Swayman/Vladar, I just didn't like the outcome we ended up with. I'm not advocating for hiring some other GM tomorrow, I'd advocate for a thorough GM search and hiring a well vetted candidate by people who know what they're doing. However, at this point, is that Neely? No idea... If you think he’s overpaid you simply don’t understand the goaltending market. There are 12 goalies that make more than him per year and there are 6 other goalies that make the same amount. He went 26-10-2 with a 2.45 GAA and a .917 sv%. Do you think he’s not a top 20 goalie? He probably gets a bigger contract if he was a free agent today. You keep saying that money didn’t need to be spent as if Swayman didn’t falter down the stretch, hitting a rookie wall- Ullmark was carrying the position at that critical point in the season. Vladar is just flat out not that good. Flames fans do not like him, which is understandable because there’s a massive drop off in goaltender play when he’s in net compared to Markstrom They spent $6 mill on their goaltender room and it was WELL worth it. They got great bang for their buck. The issues are the contracts to players like Foligno/Reilly/even Nosek. You can get a Nosek type for a million less than they did Like if they didn’t pay Reilly and Foligno they have almost $7 mill for a 2C. That hurts to think about. ullmark isnt even close to being overpaid but overpaying is a problem all over this roster, which seems ridiculous considering the incredible value this team gets from its best players - bergy, marchand, pasta, hall, mcavoy are all vastly underpaid but we haven't committed to developing a bottom 6/3rd pairing player in a couple years and it shows. it sucks that we're stuck waiting for this bergy decision bc we should 100% throw several young kids (stud, steen, lysell, mcmuffin, ahcan and maybe beecher, lauko, hughes, and calahan) into the deep end to see if they can swim but im not entirely certain the captain wants to come back to a roster with that much uncertainty. |
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Post by texs31 on May 25, 2022 8:05:44 GMT -5
Based on the roster that the B's ended the season with, Boston has ~3.2M in Cap Space. I'm not sure about any bonus overages which would impact that number (it was almost 2M last season so it could be significant) but let's leave it at that number for now. Here's what I'd do/consider:
1. Bury Wagner again - Saves about 1.1M and brings space to the 4.3M that many (like @bruinscapspace) are starting with
2. Buyout Foligno - Saves about 1/2 his hit which brings space to around $6.18M
3. Trade Mike Reilly - Many say that, despite his limitations/mistakes, he could still net a 3rd. Even if you want to call it a 4th, still worth it. I actually was thinking of trading Grzelcyk because he'd have a greater return (2nd rounder?) and you'd save more money ($3.7M vs $3M), but his surgery likely takes that off the table. Now because of the surgery, one of Zboril (already in the Cap Calculation to this point) or Ahcan (Restricted Free Agent) would have to step up until Grz is back. Still think it's something that should happen given other needs. This results in $9.18M in space
4. I'd also either bury/buyout Nosek. With a slight preference towards burying him. There is only a 200K difference in the savings but, with a buyout, he'd also have 666,667 hit on NEXT year's cap. Not huge but, largely, unnecessary. Besides, if you need him on that 4th line, you can call him back up. So that puts them at $10.3M in space
So now what?
- Obviously, getting Bergeron back is the BIG unknown. But even more so, how much does he want to come back. Don't see him asking for a raise. But how much of a discount are we talking? Mark Giordano just signed for 800K for each of the next 2 years to give himself 2 more shots at a Cup (insert your jokes about whether he has a realistic shot with the Leafs here). Is that what he'd be thinking? Or are we talking something more in the 2-4M range? 4-6?
- Some are salivating at the idea of bringing back Krejci. If Bergeron does retire, my desire to do that increases dramatically. If Bergeron does re-sign, I'm not sure. You STILL need to find a Top 6 C of the future and, currently, there is none in sight. I really think they need to figure this out bc it could also impact Pastrnak's desire to sign an extension. If Bergeron pulls a Giordano, Boston would have money to throw at a free agent and there are some decent ones available. I keep hearing names like Scheifele (6M x 2 hit), Dubois (a RFA), Horvat (5.5M) and JT Miller (5.2M) as targets. Any one of those will cost you DeBrusk PLUS. How much more? Kevin Paul Dupont suggests DeBrusk + Carlo + some pick/prospect combo. If there was a plan to replace Carlo on the 2nd pair (could you get Klingberg as a UFA), then great. But the bigger issue is whether teams would consider Carlo and his contract an asset that improves an offer. I think no, personally. I'd be willing to trade Lohrei now that we have Lindholm locked in and he's certainly increased his value (not all of Sweeney's draft risks have failed) but what else would be needed. Maybe you the ideal scenario is that you can get both Bergeron and Krejci AND make a deal for 1 of these Cs (who would play RW on the top line initially, then move back to C when Bergeron/Krejci (again, if either is brought back) moves on. Either way, I think you MUST get a C from outside the organization (present/history) to extend a window for Pasta/McAvoy/Lindholm/Swayman.
- IF you can get 2 Cs, I'd consider moving on from Haula. Is it a buyout or burying him? The difference it a little more impactful than Nosek's but I see similar pro/cons. But to move on from BOTH Haula/Nosek, you'd need to be comfortable with a re-signed Studnicka (if not included in any trade package) or Beacher/McLaughlin/other filling that 4th line role. Maybe you pick 1 of Haula/Nosek and bury the other?
- Speaking of Studnicka, if he's not included in a deal, I think you re-sign him. But, assuming he has value in a trade, I think that's better for him. Unless you give him a crack at a Top 6 role (with the plans above, it would be more likely at RW) I feel like playing 4th line minutes doesn't really benefit anyone. I get "earning" roles but, at some point, you're wasting an asset (and paying him) for lesser return.
- I'd definitely re-sign Ahcan. Some feel he could very much step in for Grzelcyk on the 2nd pair. Or he could slot in as the 7th D with Zboril moving up. Again, you really just need to fill in until Grzelcyk is back.
- Lastly, I'd certainly listen on Ullmark but more because of his value on the market (not many starting G options available this offseason) than whether/not he's overpaid. Do not PAY someone to take him off your hands. If someone wants to step up with an offer fitting of a trade for a potential starting G, fine. Otherwise, I feel like it's more something to consider at the deadline. By then, Swayman will have either taken over TRUE #1 status (vs more of a "tandem" or 1A/1B situation) and you may be able to convince Linus to waive his NMC to get an opportunity elsewhere.
- Finally, let Lazar go. I like him a lot but he'll certainly find more money and a better role elsewhere. Steen (or some other youngsters) should be able to take his place.
A VERY interesting offseason ahead.
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cdj
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Posts: 15,854
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Post by cdj on May 25, 2022 10:43:23 GMT -5
You can probably get a late pick for Nosek. Versatile, good face off guy. Gets tough assignments.
This off-season can go any number of ways. It’s going to be interesting to see what happens
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Post by texs31 on May 25, 2022 11:01:09 GMT -5
Sure. Actually, every one of the bury/buyout candidates above would come with the "if you can get something for them, great" caveat. Just saying I'd be willing to walk away if nothing comes of any trade talks.
I would NOT just walk away from Reilly. If nobody is offering anything of value, I'd explore other options to get space.
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Post by texs31 on May 27, 2022 17:24:50 GMT -5
Marchand had surgery today and his expected recovery time is 6 months.
Whatever the offseason plan, this might force Cassidy (or whomever) to play the kids.
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cdj
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Posts: 15,854
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Post by cdj on Jun 3, 2022 16:23:27 GMT -5
McAvoy is out 6 months with shoulder surgery
Lol we in trouble
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Post by texs31 on Jun 3, 2022 22:06:28 GMT -5
Reilly out 3 and Grz 5. Yikes.
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cdj
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Posts: 15,854
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Post by cdj on Jun 3, 2022 22:08:35 GMT -5
As of now we are looking at Lindholm/Carlo/Forbort/Reilly/Clifton/Zboril/Ahcan to begin next year
Woof
Tank for Bedard
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Post by texs31 on Jun 4, 2022 14:50:59 GMT -5
Still probably too good for that. Move some money (Fluto thinks they should still trade Reilly or Grz if someone will take them).
Key not only IF Bergy and/or Krejci comes back but also how much salary will it take. Would either do a Giordano type deal? Doubt it. But hopefully less than the market would dictate.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 6, 2022 20:49:46 GMT -5
Cassidy out as coach.
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cdj
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Posts: 15,854
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Post by cdj on Jun 6, 2022 22:19:48 GMT -5
Neely and Sweeney should be gone with him but that ain’t happening
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Post by texs31 on Jun 7, 2022 6:01:37 GMT -5
Neely and Sweeney should be gone with him but that ain’t happening Though, they are in such a weird/tough position (too good to tank, not good enough to truly contend) I'm not sure any good candidates would want the positions. Might be better as a "you broke it, so you fix it . . . or at least do the ugly stuff so the next guy doesn't have to" situation. |
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Post by tizzle on Jun 7, 2022 17:02:30 GMT -5
Depending on what happens with Bergeron and Krejci, a rebuild is likely in order. But:
a) The Jacobs family is, and always has been, content to be competitive enough to sell tickets and get a few playoff games. They are making enough money at that point. I have a hard time seeing them allowing for a bad year or two in the interest of the team's long term title hopes at the expense of those ticket sales.
b) If the team did decide to rebuild, it's kringe-inducing imagining Don Sweeney trying to pull a successful one off.
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cdj
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Posts: 15,854
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Post by cdj on Jun 7, 2022 17:39:16 GMT -5
They’re in tough shape if Bergeron retires
I’m seeing smoke about them thinking about moving Pastrnak. Probably the best way to get a center for the future but jeez they’re kinda screwed it would appear
The root of the problem is still the president so I don’t anticipate things will go well
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Post by tizzle on Jun 22, 2022 20:43:09 GMT -5
It would seem like Colorado or Edmonton could use Ullmark. I'd certainly be making calls to see what they'd be willing to give up.
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Post by tizzle on Jun 24, 2022 1:56:01 GMT -5
Bergeron back for another year.
No rebuild here just yet.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 30, 2022 21:35:52 GMT -5
Jim Montgomery hired as coach
Terrific coach, loved everywhere he’s been. Battled some demons with alcohol which prompted him to lose his Dallas job but went to rehab and has been an assistant with the blues since. Built a powerhouse program at Denver too.
More of a players coach than Bruce, will probably be more patient with younger players.
Was worried it was gonna be Quinn or Leach. I wanted fresh eyes. Leach would’ve been good but he’s kind of status quo and too familiar with the regime imo. Quinn would’ve been uninspiring
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Post by homerdante on Jul 6, 2022 13:02:17 GMT -5
Possible Bergeron and Krecji returns? Various reports today, no confirmations.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 6, 2022 13:54:33 GMT -5
Possible Bergeron and Krecji returns? Various reports today, no confirmations. I’ve seen that Bergeron will be back per Joey Mac, wouldn’t shock me if Krejci is too. They can sign the veteran contracts with lower cap hits that come with bonus money that wouldn’t impact this years cap situation Debrusk rescinded his trade request Seems like the fellas really didn’t like Cassidy |
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Post by texs31 on Jul 6, 2022 14:42:09 GMT -5
Krecji reports were just that Sweeney has spoken to his agent. Nothing more (yet).
While JDB certainly had issues with BC, being #1/2 on the RW depth chart (vs #3/4 on the LW depth chart) could've factored as well.
Jimmy Murphy saying Boston could have interest in local boy Colin White who was just bought out by Ottawa.
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Post by bigmarty58 on Jul 7, 2022 15:46:35 GMT -5
Who would say yes to trading David Pastrnac to the Devil's for the #2 pick in tonight's draft and Miles Wood?
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 7, 2022 16:11:41 GMT -5
I would not, I would want somebody a lot better than Miles Wood. Would have to be Dawson Mercer imo
Basically the 2020 #18 who has started to bloom a little in the league and a 2022 #2 for a consistent 40 goal scorer entering his prime.
I’d want that minimum. It’s not like pasta only has a couple years left in the league.
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Post by texs31 on Jul 7, 2022 16:43:36 GMT -5
DeBrincat was just traded to Ottawa for #7, #39 and a 3rd Rd pick in '24.
So while I agree, with CDJ on my desired return, I'm not sure you get #2 and Mercer based on the above return (unless, as some are suggesting, Chicago REALLY botched this and there are better offers out there).
But if a 24 year old pending RFA got you that, a 26 year old pending UFA might not return what we'd want.
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