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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 20, 2022 11:18:13 GMT -5
Gorman for Bogaerts is probably unrealistic. He's played pretty good in the majors for a bit now and is going to have like a 3 WAR projection next year
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jul 20, 2022 11:19:40 GMT -5
In all fairness, did we all expect that Verdugo, Hernandez and Dalbec would repeat career years? No, but not have a drop off to the extent that they did! Dalbec has *barely* dropped off from his first half last year. If he has a hot second half, he could still match last season’s stats.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 20, 2022 11:20:56 GMT -5
Whatever the collective injury risk of this starting rotation was going into the season (and it was fairly high), they've done worse than that.
I think a conservative guess is that it's cost them two wins. Imagine they were 50-43. They'd be on an 87-win pace and tied for the last wild card. If one of those extra two wins came against the Jays or Rays they'd be in even better shape.
As always, I would also ask, if the starting rotation was a "failure in roster building," how could they have done better without spending more money? Yeah, Rich Hill is an old ass dude, but that's why he cost $4 million. I don't think you can complain about what they've gotten out of Wacha for $7 million, injury or no. I guess Sale was a failure in roster building, given that he was signed to a big deal despite considerable injury risk, and Eovaldi was a big gamble too, though there was nothing to be done about those guys this season. I guess you'll say they shouldn't have signed Paxton but for his $5 million AAV who else could they have gotten that would have been any good?
On the other hand, I'd say the fact that they've consciously built pitching depth in the farm system has to go on the good side of the roster-building ledger; if not for that depth the pitching staff this year would be looking like the one from 2020. (Thank god for those prospects in the 10-20 range!)
I’m not sure they’ve done worse than anticipated for injury, and if so, it is probably exclusively because of Eovaldi. Pivetta has 19 starts. Hill has 15, which is one less than the Yankees’ 5th starter. So they are basically on track. Whitlock has bounced around, so there was injury but also uncertainty as to his role. If Wacha is healthy in the second half, he is on pace for more starts than he’s made since 2017. Eovaldi has missed 5-6 starts, and that is tough to deal with. Anyway, I would have guessed Wacha and Hill would be 40 starts tops. They are at 28. What would I do differently? I don’t know. I know at the time I was against signing Paxton and Hill. Who to sign instead? Not sure. So you can take this not as some fire breathing criticism, but I think mostly the health has been predictable. Now, Sale getting hurt again was a bad, fluky thing, so frighteningly it may be in the *second* half where injuries exceed expectations. If he misses most of the season and some of the hurt guys don’t come back for a while… then I definitely agree you’ve lost far more starts than anticipated. I liked the Wacha and Hill signing and they have pitched well IMO. The two things I would have done differently would have been to sign a RF and a reliever high leverage.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 20, 2022 11:41:49 GMT -5
I’m not sure they’ve done worse than anticipated for injury, and if so, it is probably exclusively because of Eovaldi. Pivetta has 19 starts. Hill has 15, which is one less than the Yankees’ 5th starter. So they are basically on track. Whitlock has bounced around, so there was injury but also uncertainty as to his role. If Wacha is healthy in the second half, he is on pace for more starts than he’s made since 2017. Eovaldi has missed 5-6 starts, and that is tough to deal with. Anyway, I would have guessed Wacha and Hill would be 40 starts tops. They are at 28. What would I do differently? I don’t know. I know at the time I was against signing Paxton and Hill. Who to sign instead? Not sure. So you can take this not as some fire breathing criticism, but I think mostly the health has been predictable. Now, Sale getting hurt again was a bad, fluky thing, so frighteningly it may be in the *second* half where injuries exceed expectations. If he misses most of the season and some of the hurt guys don’t come back for a while… then I definitely agree you’ve lost far more starts than anticipated. I liked the Wacha and Hill signing and they have pitched well IMO. The two things I would have done differently would have been to sign a RF and a reliever high leverage. That’s very easy to say now. also you probably wouldn’t have signed Wacha/Hill
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 20, 2022 11:49:32 GMT -5
You think Bloom wants good defense but little offense at SS, or do you think Kim will hit better in Fenway in his third year in the US? And is there an OF bat to acquire to make up for the loss of X? Won’t Story move back to SS next year? TREA. TURNER.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jul 20, 2022 11:59:14 GMT -5
Won’t Story move back to SS next year? TREA. TURNER. Guy is awesome, but is he going to be cheaper than Raffy? I’m not sure I get flipping X and Devers for Story and Turner if there is not much savings when the latter two will be 30 next year. Why not just keep the fan favorites all things being relatively equal?
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Post by greenmonster on Jul 20, 2022 12:04:32 GMT -5
The other pending FA that could be considered might be Carlos Correa. Actually, younger than Xander and has history (maybe not the best) with Cora
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Post by Guidas on Jul 20, 2022 12:27:21 GMT -5
Won’t Story move back to SS next year? TREA. TURNER. Endorse!!!
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Post by Guidas on Jul 20, 2022 12:28:08 GMT -5
Guy is awesome, but is he going to be cheaper than Raffy? I’m not sure I get flipping X and Devers for Story and Turner if there is not much savings when the latter two will be 30 next year. Why not just keep the fan favorites all things being relatively equal? He will probably be cheaper than Rafi but maybe not cheaper than X.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 20, 2022 13:31:19 GMT -5
Whatever the collective injury risk of this starting rotation was going into the season (and it was fairly high), they've done worse than that.
I think a conservative guess is that it's cost them two wins. Imagine they were 50-43. They'd be on an 87-win pace and tied for the last wild card. If one of those extra two wins came against the Jays or Rays they'd be in even better shape.
As always, I would also ask, if the starting rotation was a "failure in roster building," how could they have done better without spending more money? Yeah, Rich Hill is an old ass dude, but that's why he cost $4 million. I don't think you can complain about what they've gotten out of Wacha for $7 million, injury or no. I guess Sale was a failure in roster building, given that he was signed to a big deal despite considerable injury risk, and Eovaldi was a big gamble too, though there was nothing to be done about those guys this season. I guess you'll say they shouldn't have signed Paxton but for his $5 million AAV who else could they have gotten that would have been any good?
On the other hand, I'd say the fact that they've consciously built pitching depth in the farm system has to go on the good side of the roster-building ledger; if not for that depth the pitching staff this year would be looking like the one from 2020. (Thank god for those prospects in the 10-20 range!)
I’m not sure they’ve done worse than anticipated for injury, and if so, it is probably exclusively because of Eovaldi. Pivetta has 19 starts. Hill has 15, which is one less than the Yankees’ 5th starter. So they are basically on track. Whitlock has bounced around, so there was injury but also uncertainty as to his role. If Wacha is healthy in the second half, he is on pace for more starts than he’s made since 2017. Eovaldi has missed 5-6 starts, and that is tough to deal with. Anyway, I would have guessed Wacha and Hill would be 40 starts tops. They are at 28. What would I do differently? I don’t know. I know at the time I was against signing Paxton and Hill. Who to sign instead? Not sure. So you can take this not as some fire breathing criticism, but I think mostly the health has been predictable. Now, Sale getting hurt again was a bad, fluky thing, so frighteningly it may be in the *second* half where injuries exceed expectations. If he misses most of the season and some of the hurt guys don’t come back for a while… then I definitely agree you’ve lost far more starts than anticipated. Are you just... not counting the fact that their ace has missed essentially the entire season to date?
The problem is that a lot of the injury hit has happened at the top of the rotation. Frankly, who really cares if Hill misses a few starts; Crawford and Winckowski have been as good as him anyway. It's missing the Sale and Eovaldi starts that hurts. The other problem is that a bunch of guys were injured all at once, which is why they had to dig so deep into AAA to get spot starts. Like, those two Bello starts were games they took themselves out of from the beginning, just because they had no one else to turn to.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jul 20, 2022 13:39:40 GMT -5
I’m not sure they’ve done worse than anticipated for injury, and if so, it is probably exclusively because of Eovaldi. Pivetta has 19 starts. Hill has 15, which is one less than the Yankees’ 5th starter. So they are basically on track. Whitlock has bounced around, so there was injury but also uncertainty as to his role. If Wacha is healthy in the second half, he is on pace for more starts than he’s made since 2017. Eovaldi has missed 5-6 starts, and that is tough to deal with. Anyway, I would have guessed Wacha and Hill would be 40 starts tops. They are at 28. What would I do differently? I don’t know. I know at the time I was against signing Paxton and Hill. Who to sign instead? Not sure. So you can take this not as some fire breathing criticism, but I think mostly the health has been predictable. Now, Sale getting hurt again was a bad, fluky thing, so frighteningly it may be in the *second* half where injuries exceed expectations. If he misses most of the season and some of the hurt guys don’t come back for a while… then I definitely agree you’ve lost far more starts than anticipated. Are you just... not counting the fact that their ace has missed essentially the entire season to date?
The problem is that a lot of the injury hit has happened at the top of the rotation. Frankly, who really cares if Hill misses a few starts; Crawford and Winckowski have been as good as him anyway. It's missing the Sale and Eovaldi starts that hurts. The other problem is that a bunch of guys were injured all at once, which is why they had to dig so deep into AAA to get spot starts. Like, those two Bello starts were games they took themselves out of from the beginning, just because they had no one else to turn to.
Do you mean Sale? I’m not counting that, because we knew that 1 1/2 years ago. He was never going to pitch much in the first half. That’s why I said it might be the *second* half that injuries will cut into expectations.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 20, 2022 14:14:16 GMT -5
Are you just... not counting the fact that their ace has missed essentially the entire season to date?
The problem is that a lot of the injury hit has happened at the top of the rotation. Frankly, who really cares if Hill misses a few starts; Crawford and Winckowski have been as good as him anyway. It's missing the Sale and Eovaldi starts that hurts. The other problem is that a bunch of guys were injured all at once, which is why they had to dig so deep into AAA to get spot starts. Like, those two Bello starts were games they took themselves out of from the beginning, just because they had no one else to turn to.
Do you mean Sale? I’m not counting that, because we knew that 1 1/2 years ago. He was never going to pitch much in the first half. That’s why I said it might be the *second* half that injuries will cut into expectations. You sure forgot this timeline real quick! He came back from Tommy John last season. Then he broke a rib somehow ramping up for this season, which we definitely didn't know was going to happen a year and a half ago.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jul 20, 2022 14:43:54 GMT -5
Do you mean Sale? I’m not counting that, because we knew that 1 1/2 years ago. He was never going to pitch much in the first half. That’s why I said it might be the *second* half that injuries will cut into expectations. You sure forgot this timeline real quick! He came back from Tommy John last season. Then he broke a rib somehow ramping up for this season, which we definitely didn't know was going to happen a year and a half ago. Right. Nonetheless, the guy has been out all this time, and as of March was going to miss a large chunk of the season again. I expect if we went back to the predictions on this board, expectations for Sale would be a low inning tally. Yeah, I mixed the injuries up, but I still have never expected more than about a half season from him. I think that was a widely held view. We aren’t really disagreeing much, in the end. The pitching has been disappointing. .
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 20, 2022 14:53:47 GMT -5
You sure forgot this timeline real quick! He came back from Tommy John last season. Then he broke a rib somehow ramping up for this season, which we definitely didn't know was going to happen a year and a half ago. Right. Nonetheless, the guy has been out all this time, and as of March was going to miss a large chunk of the season again. I expect if we went back to the predictions on this board, expectations for Sale would be a low inning tally. Yeah, I mixed the injuries up, but I still have never expected more than about a half season from him. I think that was a widely held view. We aren’t really disagreeing much, in the end. The pitching has been disappointing. . Even if you did expect only that, with so much money tied up in Sale and Eovaldi at the top of the rotation it's hard to find a lot of ways to fill out the rest of it that aren't either going to be performance risks or injury risks. From a roster construction POV his hands were a bit tied.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 20, 2022 15:33:16 GMT -5
Whatever the collective injury risk of this starting rotation was going into the season (and it was fairly high), they've done worse than that.
I think a conservative guess is that it's cost them two wins. Imagine they were 50-43. They'd be on an 87-win pace and tied for the last wild card. If one of those extra two wins came against the Jays or Rays they'd be in even better shape.
As always, I would also ask, if the starting rotation was a "failure in roster building," how could they have done better without spending more money? Yeah, Rich Hill is an old ass dude, but that's why he cost $4 million. I don't think you can complain about what they've gotten out of Wacha for $7 million, injury or no. I guess Sale was a failure in roster building, given that he was signed to a big deal despite considerable injury risk, and Eovaldi was a big gamble too, though there was nothing to be done about those guys this season. I guess you'll say they shouldn't have signed Paxton but for his $5 million AAV who else could they have gotten that would have been any good?
On the other hand, I'd say the fact that they've consciously built pitching depth in the farm system has to go on the good side of the roster-building ledger; if not for that depth the pitching staff this year would be looking like the one from 2020. (Thank god for those prospects in the 10-20 range!)
I’m not sure they’ve done worse than anticipated for injury, and if so, it is probably exclusively because of Eovaldi. Pivetta has 19 starts. Hill has 15, which is one less than the Yankees’ 5th starter. So they are basically on track. Whitlock has bounced around, so there was injury but also uncertainty as to his role. If Wacha is healthy in the second half, he is on pace for more starts than he’s made since 2017. Eovaldi has missed 5-6 starts, and that is tough to deal with. Anyway, I would have guessed Wacha and Hill would be 40 starts tops. They are at 28. What would I do differently? I don’t know. I know at the time I was against signing Paxton and Hill. Who to sign instead? Not sure. So you can take this not as some fire breathing criticism, but I think mostly the health has been predictable. Now, Sale getting hurt again was a bad, fluky thing, so frighteningly it may be in the *second* half where injuries exceed expectations. If he misses most of the season and some of the hurt guys don’t come back for a while… then I definitely agree you’ve lost far more starts than anticipated. It's not so much that they didn't expect them to get hurt. It's that they didn't expect them to all get hurt at the same time. They would have been fine if it were just one or two injuries at a time. They do have the most impressive starter depth that I can remember. There is really no possible adequate planning to replace your entire rotation for a few weeks.
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Post by redsoxpride34 on Jul 20, 2022 16:04:21 GMT -5
Right. Nonetheless, the guy has been out all this time, and as of March was going to miss a large chunk of the season again. I expect if we went back to the predictions on this board, expectations for Sale would be a low inning tally. Yeah, I mixed the injuries up, but I still have never expected more than about a half season from him. I think that was a widely held view. We aren’t really disagreeing much, in the end. The pitching has been disappointing. . Even if you did expect only that, with so much money tied up in Sale and Eovaldi at the top of the rotation it's hard to find a lot of ways to fill out the rest of it that aren't either going to be performance risks or injury risks. From a roster construction POV his hands were a bit tied. Fair point but Bloom did the one thing he could absolutely not afford to do and that's to add even more question marks to a rotation that was already full of them. There was no excuse for signing Paxton. 13 million this year and he likely wont even pitch a meaningful game. If the logic is to have him at a cheaper rate for the next 2 years, is it even worth it for his age 34 and 35 seasons? From an AAV perspective, Bloom paid more for Paxton/Hill/Wacha (23 million) than Gausman (21 million) is making. At his peak he'll be making 23. He's the guy this rotation needed.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 20, 2022 16:45:12 GMT -5
Even if you did expect only that, with so much money tied up in Sale and Eovaldi at the top of the rotation it's hard to find a lot of ways to fill out the rest of it that aren't either going to be performance risks or injury risks. From a roster construction POV his hands were a bit tied. Fair point but Bloom did the one thing he could absolutely not afford to do and that's to add even more question marks to a rotation that was already full of them. There was no excuse for signing Paxton. 13 million this year and he likely wont even pitch a meaningful game. If the logic is to have him at a cheaper rate for the next 2 years, is it even worth it for his age 34 and 35 seasons? From an AAV perspective, Bloom paid more for Paxton/Hill/Wacha (23 million) than Gausman (21 million) is making. At his peak he'll be making 23. He's the guy this rotation needed. Hill and Wacha have been worth 2.6 bWAR this season, Gausman has been worth 1.6 (Wacha alone 2.2). As Incandenza pointed out when I brought him up he'd also be cutting into the number of starters available to make starts by having just him instead of Wacha/Paxton/Hill. I don't think there's any evidence they would have been better so far this season having Gausman instead of those three guys. We can go back to the fun argument of "spend more money" and say they should have gotten Wacha and Gausman but not Paxton or Hill and then yes I agree that would have been better so far. However, even in that case isn't it possible that is just repeating the Eovaldi/Sale deals and they get a great year but then three injured years? I'm not arguing they should never sign a top starter again, but maybe Gausman, in this past offseason, wasn't the one to go for. As for Paxton, personally I think it was a reasonable risk, but we're not at the point where we know if it'll pay off or not and I think it's fair to question that strategy. We'll see how it goes.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 20, 2022 17:53:01 GMT -5
Fair point but Bloom did the one thing he could absolutely not afford to do and that's to add even more question marks to a rotation that was already full of them. There was no excuse for signing Paxton. 13 million this year and he likely wont even pitch a meaningful game. If the logic is to have him at a cheaper rate for the next 2 years, is it even worth it for his age 34 and 35 seasons? From an AAV perspective, Bloom paid more for Paxton/Hill/Wacha (23 million) than Gausman (21 million) is making. At his peak he'll be making 23. He's the guy this rotation needed. Hill and Wacha have been worth 2.6 bWAR this season, Gausman has been worth 1.6 (Wacha alone 2.2). As Incandenza pointed out when I brought him up he'd also be cutting into the number of starters available to make starts by having just him instead of Wacha/Paxton/Hill. I don't think there's any evidence they would have been better so far this season having Gausman instead of those three guys. We can go back to the fun argument of "spend more money" and say they should have gotten Wacha and Gausman but not Paxton or Hill and then yes I agree that would have been better so far. However, even in that case isn't it possible that is just repeating the Eovaldi/Sale deals and they get a great year but then three injured years? I'm not arguing they should never sign a top starter again, but maybe Gausman, in this past offseason, wasn't the one to go for. As for Paxton, personally I think it was a reasonable risk, but we're not at the point where we know if it'll pay off or not and I think it's fair to question that strategy. We'll see how it goes. Yeah, you really can't say the Red Sox haven't invested heavily in the starting rotation. This year they've got like $60 million going to Sale, Price, and Eovaldi alone. And, well, here we are.
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 20, 2022 18:14:29 GMT -5
Won’t Story move back to SS next year? TREA. TURNER. Turner is rumored to want to come back to the east coast but will be 30 next year and I dont see the Red Sox paying for his 30 plus years.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 20, 2022 19:02:24 GMT -5
Guy is awesome, but is he going to be cheaper than Raffy? I’m not sure I get flipping X and Devers for Story and Turner if there is not much savings when the latter two will be 30 next year. Why not just keep the fan favorites all things being relatively equal? He will probably be cheaper than Rafi but maybe not cheaper than X. ^This. Pay Turner if X signs somewhere else. I'd just as soon keep both X and Raffy but X is up first and if he leaves, you can't just sit around and pine for him.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 20, 2022 20:09:21 GMT -5
I liked the Wacha and Hill signing and they have pitched well IMO. The two things I would have done differently would have been to sign a RF and a reliever high leverage. That’s very easy to say now. also you probably wouldn’t have signed Wacha/Hill Wrong! I absolutely would have signed them as I liked the Matrin Perez and Richards signing last year. Since you can not read minds don’t. Tampa signed Eovaldi in 2018 for cheap and flipped him to the Red Sox for Jalen Beeks who is still with the Rays. I have complain for decades why the Red Sox do not sign more in the offseason and rake in prospects at the deadline instead of constantly giving prospects away. Wacha, Hill, Perez, Richards….were all signed to flip if the Red Sox were not in contention. It is better to sign players when it only takes $ rather than trading away Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson, or trading Espinal (notice him in the all star game)to Toranto, Beeks to the Rays, especially when the team had clear holes.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2022 21:22:07 GMT -5
Be still my heart, but I read that Robert Murray from fansided.com reports that the Cubs and Red Sox have checked in with the Mets about Dominic Smith who is having an awful year. Obviously the idea would be a LH bat for 1b, one that could arguably play the position.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 20, 2022 21:29:10 GMT -5
Be still my heart, but I read that Robert Murray from fansided.com reports that the Cubs and Red Sox have checked in with the Mets about Dominic Smith who is having an awful year. Obviously the idea would be a LH bat for 1b, one that could arguably play the position. I mean, hell, I bet Travis Shaw is still available...
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 20, 2022 22:22:51 GMT -5
Dansby Swanson is projected to get a contract like Story. Thats the best backup plan
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 21, 2022 0:11:52 GMT -5
Dansby Swanson is projected to get a contract like Story. Thats the best backup plan Best defensive SS this year by FG metrics, also consistently good by that measure through the years.
Having a great year at the plate, too.
Might be a better option than Turner, esp. at Story money...
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