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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 21, 2022 5:48:43 GMT -5
Even if you did expect only that, with so much money tied up in Sale and Eovaldi at the top of the rotation it's hard to find a lot of ways to fill out the rest of it that aren't either going to be performance risks or injury risks. From a roster construction POV his hands were a bit tied. Fair point but Bloom did the one thing he could absolutely not afford to do and that's to add even more question marks to a rotation that was already full of them. There was no excuse for signing Paxton. 13 million this year and he likely wont even pitch a meaningful game. If the logic is to have him at a cheaper rate for the next 2 years, is it even worth it for his age 34 and 35 seasons? From an AAV perspective, Bloom paid more for Paxton/Hill/Wacha (23 million) than Gausman (21 million) is making. At his peak he'll be making 23. He's the guy this rotation needed. $10m against the CBT - $6m salary plus $4m 2023 player option value. If he exercises the player option, they actually get him for free on the CBT because it's already counted this year. If they exercise the two, $13m club options (which must happen at the same time, then I think he'll count for $11m/year because $4m was counted this year. At any rate, he is definitely not either being paid or counting as $13m this year or any year of the deal. As for the comparison, those three, as well as Gausman, are each making $22m, but if you're not seeing the difference between two 1-year deals and a 1-year deal with options on one side and a 5-year deal in the other, I'm not sure what to tell you. Gausman was having serious issues at the end of 2021 and I completely get not giving him that kind of financial commitment, and at any rate, it's a commitment of 110 million to the one guy versus like 26 million for the other 3.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 21, 2022 6:59:56 GMT -5
Are people really depending on Paxon next year? Or Bello? The former is a little like relying on Sale, who we didn't know what he would be until he pitched again (getting drilled had nothing to do with performance). The latter reminds me of folks slotting in Seabold after last year like he would be a solid 3 or 4. Bello has promise, but he also showed some significant command issues when he was up. If those aren't fixed, then he's a 6 and emergency call-up or a bullpen arm.
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Post by rismith on Jul 21, 2022 7:43:09 GMT -5
any word on when Walter will be back? Had high hopes for him and a neck strain has kept him out a while
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 21, 2022 7:50:26 GMT -5
Are people really depending on Paxon next year? Or Bello? The former is a little like relying on Sale, who we didn't know what he would be until he pitched again (getting drilled had nothing to do with performance). The latter reminds me of folks slotting in Seabold after last year like he would be a solid 3 or 4. Bello has promise, but he also showed some significant command issues when he was up. If those aren't fixed, then he's a 6 and emergency call-up or a bullpen arm. Currently id say I'm not exactly banking on Paxton but that could change quickly if he can come back and start 4-5 games and remain healthy through the end of the season. If he does I'd 100 percent pick up the option. If he doesn't then don't pick up the option and honestly no harm really done in my mind.
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Post by costpet on Jul 21, 2022 8:47:03 GMT -5
When the Sox say they can't afford something, check this out. The average cost for a family of 4 to attend a game at Fenway, counting 4 tickets, 4 hot dogs, 2 beers, 2 sodas, and parking come to $324.37. That's the highest in the league. That's higher than even the Cubs and MFYs. The average around the league is $204.76 with the lowest being AZ at $126.34.
So, don't believe any BS about their financial situation.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 21, 2022 8:48:39 GMT -5
When the Sox say they can't afford something, check this out. The average cost for a family of 4 to attend a game at Fenway, counting 4 tickets, 4 hot dogs, 2 beers, 2 sodas, and parking come to $324.37. That's the highest in the league. That's higher than even the Cubs and MFYs. The average around the league is $204.76 with the lowest being AZ at $126.34. So, don't believe any BS about their financial situation. Nobody has said anything about their financial situation?
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Post by Guidas on Jul 21, 2022 9:16:32 GMT -5
Are people really depending on Paxon next year? Or Bello? The former is a little like relying on Sale, who we didn't know what he would be until he pitched again (getting drilled had nothing to do with performance). The latter reminds me of folks slotting in Seabold after last year like he would be a solid 3 or 4. Bello has promise, but he also showed some significant command issues when he was up. If those aren't fixed, then he's a 6 and emergency call-up or a bullpen arm. Currently id say I'm not exactly banking on Paxton but that could change quickly if he can come back and start 4-5 games and remain healthy through the end of the season. If he does I'd 100 percent pick up the option. If he doesn't then don't pick up the option and honestly no harm really done in my mind. Yes, this is where I'm at as well.
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Post by jdb on Jul 21, 2022 9:26:43 GMT -5
I’ve seen rumors that Pablo Lopez could be had so the Marlins can get some hitting prospects. bWar is higher on him and I’m not sure what type of package it would cost.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2022 9:27:39 GMT -5
When the Sox say they can't afford something, check this out. The average cost for a family of 4 to attend a game at Fenway, counting 4 tickets, 4 hot dogs, 2 beers, 2 sodas, and parking come to $324.37. That's the highest in the league. That's higher than even the Cubs and MFYs. The average around the league is $204.76 with the lowest being AZ at $126.34. So, don't believe any BS about their financial situation. There are financial rules in baseball that limit spending. They are not only monetary. They also reduce the ability to acquire future talent. If there were not, then you'd have a better point and we'd all be yelling for them to have billion dollar payrolls.
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Post by costpet on Jul 21, 2022 9:52:27 GMT -5
Well, when they lose Devers, Boggy, and JD because of money, don't complain about their horseshit team for the next few years. The luxury tax doesn't seem to bother the Dodgers, Cubs, or MFY's. But we have to be frugal.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 21, 2022 10:01:37 GMT -5
Well, when they lose Devers, Boggy, and JD because of money, don't complain about their horseshit team for the next few years. The luxury tax doesn't seem to bother the Dodgers, Cubs, or MFY's. But we have to be frugal. One of those things is not like the other... why in the world are you throwing the cubs out there? They stink and have stunk for a few years now.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 21, 2022 11:09:34 GMT -5
I’ve seen rumors that Pablo Lopez could be had so the Marlins can get some hitting prospects. bWar is higher on him and I’m not sure what type of package it would cost. Would be a nice get but I can't imagine the Sox would pay the price.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 21, 2022 13:50:29 GMT -5
Well, when they lose Devers, Boggy, and JD because of money, don't complain about their horseshit team for the next few years. The luxury tax doesn't seem to bother the Dodgers, Cubs, or MFY's. But we have to be frugal. Havnt the Sox spent right to or over the cap for the last 10 years???
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Post by greenmonster on Jul 21, 2022 13:56:06 GMT -5
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 21, 2022 13:57:09 GMT -5
Well, when they lose Devers, Boggy, and JD because of money, don't complain about their horseshit team for the next few years. The luxury tax doesn't seem to bother the Dodgers, Cubs, or MFY's. But we have to be frugal. Havnt the Sox spent right to or over the cap for the last 10 years??? Im not sure they did 2014-2016. But they probably did something semi close. I don't think they will next year. The honest view on this team IMO is next year they'll be at 160-170. Again, nothing like Tampa but they're not going to be the Yankees or Dodgers either and we need to accept that.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,007
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Post by jimoh on Jul 21, 2022 14:11:43 GMT -5
Havnt the Sox spent right to or over the cap for the last 10 years??? Im not sure they did 2014-2016. But they probably did something semi close. I don't think they will next year. The honest view on this team IMO is next year they'll be at 160-170. Again, nothing like Tampa but they're not going to be the Yankees or Dodgers either and we need to accept that. These are curious claims. In 2014-16 the Sox had the 5th, 3rd, and 5th highest payrolls in baseball. legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/boston-red-sox/ In 2016 they spent $204,012,716, when the tax threshold was $189 million. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_luxury_taxI will now list all of the evidence suggesting that the payroll will be $160-70M in 2023:
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 21, 2022 14:51:54 GMT -5
Im not sure they did 2014-2016. But they probably did something semi close. I don't think they will next year. The honest view on this team IMO is next year they'll be at 160-170. Again, nothing like Tampa but they're not going to be the Yankees or Dodgers either and we need to accept that. These are curious claims. In 2014-16 the Sox had the 5th, 3rd, and 5th highest payrolls in baseball. legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/boston-red-sox/ In 2016 they spent $204,012,716, when the tax threshold was $189 million. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_luxury_taxI will now list all of the evidence suggesting that the payroll will be $160-70M in 2023: Right. This is why I said I didn't know if that was correct. Those were bridge years. The evidence on the future is simple. JD Xander and company are gone next year and the FA class is crap. They aren't spending close to this year.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 21, 2022 14:58:32 GMT -5
Right. This is why I said I didn't know if that was correct. Those were bridge years. The evidence on the future is simple. JD Xander and company are gone next year and the FA class is crap. They aren't spending close to this year. It's not the strongest class I'll give you that but there's still more than enough intriguing names for Bloom to throw extra money at on shorter term deals to try and bridge this team to the next core. I for one would be absolutely shocked if the sox payroll was south of 200 mil. Henry knows fans would absolutely revolt if they lost a guy like X and on top of that just cut 60-70 mil off the payroll too. But I guess we'll see soon enough what happens.
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Post by manfred on Jul 21, 2022 15:04:51 GMT -5
Right. This is why I said I didn't know if that was correct. Those were bridge years. The evidence on the future is simple. JD Xander and company are gone next year and the FA class is crap. They aren't spending close to this year. It's not the strongest class I'll give you that but there's still more than enough intriguing names for Bloom to throw extra money at on shorter term deals to try and bridge this team to the next core. I for one would be absolutely shocked if the sox payroll was south of 200 mil. Henry knows fans would absolutely revolt if they lost a guy like X and on top of that just cut 60-70 mil off the payroll too. But I guess we'll see soon enough what happens. Assuming that other teams are not doing the same with a scarce resource (good FAs).
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Post by incandenza on Jul 21, 2022 15:05:40 GMT -5
Havnt the Sox spent right to or over the cap for the last 10 years??? Im not sure they did 2014-2016. But they probably did something semi close. I don't think they will next year. The honest view on this team IMO is next year they'll be at 160-170. Again, nothing like Tampa but they're not going to be the Yankees or Dodgers either and we need to accept that. I have no idea how you got to the end of this thought process and concluded, "yep, that checks out." The free agent class is not great, but Bloom is not going to, like, forget to spend $70 million or whatever. If anything there's more of the kind of value he covets - mid-range type FAs that can be had on short term deals.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 21, 2022 15:05:55 GMT -5
Right. This is why I said I didn't know if that was correct. Those were bridge years. The evidence on the future is simple. JD Xander and company are gone next year and the FA class is crap. They aren't spending close to this year. It's not the strongest class I'll give you that but there's still more than enough intriguing names for Bloom to throw extra money at on shorter term deals to try and bridge this team to the next core. I for one would be absolutely shocked if the sox payroll was south of 200 mil. Henry knows fans would absolutely revolt if they lost a guy like X and on top of that just cut 60-70 mil off the payroll too. But I guess we'll see soon enough what happens. Well it takes two people to make a deal. You can also sell a reset for a season and not deal with fans revolting. They also seem fine with letting Xander and Devers walk so maybe surviving the backlash fron the Mookie deal made them less likely to react to criticism. I doubt it did but never know. They also have the Price contract coming off the books and can decline JBJs option which I'm assuming they will.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 21, 2022 15:10:37 GMT -5
Im not sure they did 2014-2016. But they probably did something semi close. I don't think they will next year. The honest view on this team IMO is next year they'll be at 160-170. Again, nothing like Tampa but they're not going to be the Yankees or Dodgers either and we need to accept that. I have no idea how you got to the end of this thought process and concluded, "yep, that checks out." The free agent class is not great, but Bloom is not going to, like, forget to spend $70 million or whatever. If anything there's more of the kind of value he covets - mid-range type FAs that can be had on short term deals. Sure. Give me a middle tier FA that makes this team better that you would feel comfortable overpaying on a 1 year deal. Morton? Gray? Maybe Muncy if the Dodgers decline his option after his awful season. Villar I guess maybe as an option at 2nd/super utility. You could probably find some bullpen pieces to take the 1 year pillow contract. The FA market outside of the unattainable pieces (price and term) and the Sox current FAs really sucks.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 21, 2022 15:11:52 GMT -5
It's not the strongest class I'll give you that but there's still more than enough intriguing names for Bloom to throw extra money at on shorter term deals to try and bridge this team to the next core. I for one would be absolutely shocked if the sox payroll was south of 200 mil. Henry knows fans would absolutely revolt if they lost a guy like X and on top of that just cut 60-70 mil off the payroll too. But I guess we'll see soon enough what happens. Well it takes two people to make a deal. You can also sell a reset for a season and not deal with fans revolting. They also seem fine with letting Xander and Devers walk so maybe surviving the backlash fron the Mookie deal made them less likely to react to criticism. I doubt it did but never know. They also have the Price contract coming off the books and can decline JBJs option which I'm assuming they will. What are the team's incentives, in your mind? Why yould they leave $70 million of payroll space on the table, when this ownership group has no history whatsoever of doing that? Is your thinking that they're just not going to try to field a competitive team for a year so that the owners can pocket a little more money? Why would Bloom want to do that in the first year that he's *finally* out from under most of the previous regime's financial commitments? I'm just totally baffled by your line of thought.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 21, 2022 15:14:36 GMT -5
Well it takes two people to make a deal. You can also sell a reset for a season and not deal with fans revolting. They also seem fine with letting Xander and Devers walk so maybe surviving the backlash fron the Mookie deal made them less likely to react to criticism. I doubt it did but never know. They also have the Price contract coming off the books and can decline JBJs option which I'm assuming they will. What are the team's incentives, in your mind? Why yould they leave $70 million of payroll space on the table, when this ownership group has no history whatsoever of doing that? Is your thinking that they're just not going to try to field a competitive team for a year so that the owners can pocket a little more money? Why would Bloom want to do that in the first year that he's *finally* out from under most of the previous regime's financial commitments? I'm just totally baffled by your line of thought. No one worth spending on and the team is showing no interest in retaining current players. Focus on developing the guys in AAA in the bigs for a year.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 21, 2022 15:16:11 GMT -5
I have no idea how you got to the end of this thought process and concluded, "yep, that checks out." The free agent class is not great, but Bloom is not going to, like, forget to spend $70 million or whatever. If anything there's more of the kind of value he covets - mid-range type FAs that can be had on short term deals. Sure. Give me a middle tier FA that makes this team better that you would feel comfortable overpaying on a 1 year deal. Morton? Gray? Maybe Muncy if the Dodgers decline his option after his awful season. Villar I guess maybe as an option at 2nd/super utility. You could probably find some bullpen pieces to take the 1 year pillow contract. The FA market outside of the unattainable pieces (price and term) and the Sox current FAs really sucks. Trea Turner, Syndergaard, Abreu, Jansen, Kiermaier, Clevinger, Kiké. There, it took me about a minute to spend up to the CBT and field a pennant contender.
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