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Post by manfred on Jul 21, 2022 17:31:30 GMT -5
That has to be tampering, no? Why? They are under contract to the Red Sox and can talk about whatever they wish. I guess if you tell the other team explicitly you have a deal, it is sound. But I wonder (Eric might know) — has this been done? I wonder if that handshake deal goes up in smoke when the player starts getting counter offers.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 21, 2022 17:34:00 GMT -5
I'm skeptical of the benefit of the handshake deal from the player's side. A team that would trade for Xander is a good team that needs an infielder. Who says that team wouldn't want to resign him? In fact, if they do want to keep Xander, I'd argue it's a reason not to sell because trading him might significantly reduce their odds of doing so. Anyways if they do sell I can buy the argument that it doesn't necessarily harm the team next year and that it is a sort of perfect storm there. I'm still not there yet though, let's wait and see what the playoff odds are looking like with a few days before the deadline. The assumption is that Xander Bogaerts very much wants to play his entire career with the Boston Red Sox.
A player in that positions will turn down an infinite amount of money if he feels he's being paid fairly. And fairly is not the maximum someone might offer (the home town discount is real).
Thought experiment: you have won a special lottery ticket. You gave a choice of two rewards:
$250M and 4 season tickets to the Red Sox, best seats in the house, with help finding a home and a job (if you like your work) in the Boston area if you live elsewhere;
OR
$300M and the same deal, but for the Cardinals and St. Louis.
Which do you take?
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Post by manfred on Jul 21, 2022 17:35:36 GMT -5
I'm skeptical of the benefit of the handshake deal from the player's side. A team that would trade for Xander is a good team that needs an infielder. Who says that team wouldn't want to resign him? In fact, if they do want to keep Xander, I'd argue it's a reason not to sell because trading him might significantly reduce their odds of doing so. Anyways if they do sell I can buy the argument that it doesn't necessarily harm the team next year and that it is a sort of perfect storm there. I'm still not there yet though, let's wait and see what the playoff odds are looking like with a few days before the deadline. The assumption is that Xander Bogaerts very much wants to play his entire career with the Boston Red Sox.
A player in that positions will turn down an infinite amount of money if he feels he's being paid fairly. And fairly is not the maximum someone might offer (the home town discount is real).
Thought experiment: you have won a special lottery ticket. You gave a choice of two rewards:
$250M and 4 season tickets to the Red Sox, best seats in the house, with help finding a home and a job (if you like your work) in the Boston area if you live elsewhere;
OR
$300M and the same deal, but for the Cardinals and St. Louis.
Which do you take?
I take the $300 million, because the rest of the package costs less than $50 million.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 21, 2022 17:38:40 GMT -5
Why? They are under contract to the Red Sox and can talk about whatever they wish. I guess if you tell the other team explicitly you have a deal, it is sound. But I wonder (Eric might know) — has this been done? I wonder if that handshake deal goes up in smoke when the player starts getting counter offers. I have a memory of this happening, but can't remember who did it.
See my last reply for the fear you express. Xander has made it really clear that he loves playing for this ream and want to stay here.
BTW, if he's not interested in playing elsewhere, even if it means another shot at a ring, you just keep him.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 21, 2022 17:41:11 GMT -5
The assumption is that Xander Bogaerts very much wants to play his entire career with the Boston Red Sox.
A player in that positions will turn down an infinite amount of money if he feels he's being paid fairly. And fairly is not the maximum someone might offer (the home town discount is real).
Thought experiment: you have won a special lottery ticket. You gave a choice of two rewards:
$250M and 4 season tickets to the Red Sox, best seats in the house, with help finding a home and a job (if you like your work) in the Boston area if you live elsewhere;
OR
$300M and the same deal, but for the Cardinals and St. Louis.
Which do you take?
I take the $300 million, because the rest of the package costs less than $50 million. Very clever! No, you forfeit the deal if you don't live in the appropriate city.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 21, 2022 18:02:32 GMT -5
I'm skeptical of the benefit of the handshake deal from the player's side. A team that would trade for Xander is a good team that needs an infielder. Who says that team wouldn't want to resign him? In fact, if they do want to keep Xander, I'd argue it's a reason not to sell because trading him might significantly reduce their odds of doing so. Anyways if they do sell I can buy the argument that it doesn't necessarily harm the team next year and that it is a sort of perfect storm there. I'm still not there yet though, let's wait and see what the playoff odds are looking like with a few days before the deadline. The assumption is that Xander Bogaerts very much wants to play his entire career with the Boston Red Sox.
A player in that positions will turn down an infinite amount of money if he feels he's being paid fairly. And fairly is not the maximum someone might offer (the home town discount is real).
Thought experiment: you have won a special lottery ticket. You gave a choice of two rewards:
$250M and 4 season tickets to the Red Sox, best seats in the house, with help finding a home and a job (if you like your work) in the Boston area if you live elsewhere;
OR
$300M and the same deal, but for the Cardinals and St. Louis.
Which do you take?
Agree with all that, I just think as soon as you trade him and you send him to another winning organization that perspective might change. What if you trade him to the Dodgers and he finds out he really likes living in LA and the organization does a great job? It might not only open his mind to signing with them, but other teams with good supporting operations in other cities of potential interest. That's why I think even if they might sell overall, if they really wanted to keep Xander they might decide not to trade him anyways. I could be off on that, and it'll obviously vary a ton by player. I also think it's different because it's not a situation where the team will be way out of first, they'll be in a position where they could very well still compete this year, and competitive athletes may view 45% playoff odds a bit less rationally than a purely objective observer. It could signal to them that the organization is too quick to bail in seasons where things don't go perfectly. This is a ton of speculation into player psychology, and again it probably varies a ton player to player. If they do sell for good reason and Xander (and/or CV) were to agree to a handshake deal and follow through on it that would be a great scenario (assuming the next two weeks to go poorly and it makes sense to sell).
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 21, 2022 18:10:25 GMT -5
I am of the mindset of if they have absolutely any interest in bringing Xander back you don't trade him and let him put on another uniform and realize that baseball is baseball no matter where he plays. He'd be traded to a contender where he will hear his name cheered just as loudly as he does in fenway. If that happens he may realize he doesn't need to stay in Boston to feel the love.
If they trade him then to me that means they have no interest in bringing him back which if that is the case then trade him if you can get back a package with a player close to contributing to the ML squad.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 21, 2022 18:12:35 GMT -5
Two more reason to sell:
No pressure on any of the injured guys to rush back, and it's easy for them to try things out once they do.
40-man roster space now created for Walters, Murphy, German and anyone else who's a likely to be protected in the Rule 5 (what's the list?).
How often does this happen:
Selling team has three SP they can trade at the deadline (plus 2 injured)
Team has seven to eight rookie starting pitchers who are getting or can get a taste of MLB action. (Mata's #7 and Groome's the maybe. Winck and Crawford are going to lose their rookie status with 3 more starts each.)
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Post by prospectlove on Jul 21, 2022 18:22:41 GMT -5
Im not sure they did 2014-2016. But they probably did something semi close. I don't think they will next year. The honest view on this team IMO is next year they'll be at 160-170. Again, nothing like Tampa but they're not going to be the Yankees or Dodgers either and we need to accept that. I have no idea how you got to the end of this thought process and concluded, "yep, that checks out." The free agent class is not great, but Bloom is not going to, like, forget to spend $70 million or whatever. If anything there's more of the kind of value he covets - mid-range type FAs that can be had on short term deals. The key isn't going to be how MUCH he spends but instead WHO he spends it on. It's fun to speculate and he has plenty of options. What is for sure is this: If Red Sox lose JD, Xander, Euvaldi, Kiki, and can't sign Devers showing they will lose him (or could lose him) the next year they will need to replace a great deal of talent. Paying high end salary for players who won't produce will only inflame losing that talent more. Also, one could argue they could be losing the faces of the franchise. Now, that's the "Devil Ray" way. Wash, rinse, replace. It's what they do and have done. It's the cost efficient way. It's the small market way. Trevor Story was a large contract, but he hasn't been the Trevor Story of old either (or shall I state different...an all star). So if we just look at all stars, the question is how do we replace Xander/JD/Devers IF we lose those players. Should really make for an interesting off season for sure.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 21, 2022 18:35:17 GMT -5
I guess if you tell the other team explicitly you have a deal, it is sound. But I wonder (Eric might know) — has this been done? I wonder if that handshake deal goes up in smoke when the player starts getting counter offers. I have a memory of this happening, but can't remember who did it.
See my last reply for the fear you express. Xander has made it really clear that he loves playing for this ream and want to stay here.
BTW, if he's not interested in playing elsewhere, even if it means another shot at a ring, you just keep him.
Chapman: July 25, 2016: Traded by the New York Yankees to the Chicago Cubs for Rashad Crawford (minors), Billy McKinney, Gleyber Torres and Adam Warren. November 3, 2016: Granted Free Agency. December 15, 2016: Signed as a Free Agent with the New York Yankees. Jason Hammell February 13, 2014: Signed as a Free Agent with the Chicago Cubs. July 5, 2014: Traded by the Chicago Cubs with Jeff Samardzija to the Oakland Athletics for Billy McKinney, Addison Russell, Dan Straily and cash. October 30, 2014: Granted Free Agency. December 12, 2014: Signed as a Free Agent with the Chicago Cubs.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 21, 2022 18:39:02 GMT -5
I am of the mindset of if they have absolutely any interest in bringing Xander back you don't trade him and let him put on another uniform and realize that baseball is baseball no matter where he plays. He'd be traded to a contender where he will hear his name cheered just as loudly as he does in fenway. If that happens he may realize he doesn't need to stay in Boston to feel the love. If they trade him then to me that means they have no interest in bringing him back which if that is the case then trade him if you can get back a package with a player close to contributing to the ML squad. Exactly. That's what happened to Jon Lester. He realized once he was traded to Oakland, baseball is baseball and business is business. His fantasy of wearing only a Red Sox uniform ended and he realized that the Red Sox franchise was going to do whatever thought was in their own best self-interest, so ultimately why shouldn't he? And I think you're right. It's kind of a fan's dream for the player to think that Boston is the only great place to play and nowhere else is comparable. If a player is happy he might feel that way, but once he gets dealt, and usually it would be against his wishes, and is exposed to another place, that feeling can change.
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Post by keninten on Jul 21, 2022 19:22:52 GMT -5
I guess if you tell the other team explicitly you have a deal, it is sound. But I wonder (Eric might know) — has this been done? I wonder if that handshake deal goes up in smoke when the player starts getting counter offers. I have a memory of this happening, but can't remember who did it.
See my last reply for the fear you express. Xander has made it really clear that he loves playing for this ream and want to stay here.
BTW, if he's not interested in playing elsewhere, even if it means another shot at a ring, you just keep him.
Was it Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs?
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Post by manfred on Jul 21, 2022 19:37:35 GMT -5
I wonder how much peer pressure there is to take the biggest deal. I mean, look at the thread on Devers — he’s being offered based on Olsen. So if someone like X takes a big discount, how does that impact a guy like Correa? They are in a union (and many share agents as well).
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 21, 2022 19:57:55 GMT -5
I wonder how much peer pressure there is to take the biggest deal. I have heard in the past that the union pressures them to take most money FWIW. Always gotta be setting precedents.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 21, 2022 22:40:00 GMT -5
I am of the mindset of if they have absolutely any interest in bringing Xander back you don't trade him and let him put on another uniform and realize that baseball is baseball no matter where he plays. He'd be traded to a contender where he will hear his name cheered just as loudly as he does in fenway. If that happens he may realize he doesn't need to stay in Boston to feel the love. If they trade him then to me that means they have no interest in bringing him back which if that is the case then trade him if you can get back a package with a player close to contributing to the ML squad. Exactly. That's what happened to Jon Lester. He realized once he was traded to Oakland, baseball is baseball and business is business. His fantasy of wearing only a Red Sox uniform ended and he realized that the Red Sox franchise was going to do whatever thought was in their own best self-interest, so ultimately why shouldn't he? And I think you're right. It's kind of a fan's dream for the player to think that Boston is the only great place to play and nowhere else is comparable. If a player is happy he might feel that way, but once he gets dealt, and usually it would be against his wishes, and is exposed to another place, that feeling can change. Freddie Freeman says hi.
I'm not sure folks know the whole story ... Freeman completely wanted to re-sign with the Braves and the Braves completely wanted him back.
Freeman's idiot of an agent gave the Braves what seemed like an ultimatum (24 hours, IIRC), with a bluff high price. The Braves thought he had a deal done at that price and was on the verge of leaving and thought, crap, we can't match that, and immediately made the Olson trade to cover their asses.
Freeman then signs with the Dodgers ... four days later. At a price the Braves would have met. When Freeman eventually found out what his agent had done, he fired him.
What is missing from your Lester story is that he felt dissed, in this case by a stupidly low initial offer. Now, if I'm an agent and I get that first offer, I come back immediately with an offer that is just as stupidly high. But Lester's agent didn't make a counter-offer. One wonders whether he was actually serving his client's wishes (by not telling Lester "I wouldn't necessarily take that offer seriously"), or whether the Sox lowballed him on purpose because they actually thought he'd be overvalued on the market. But in any case it's hugely easier to get over your desire to not change teams when you think the old team has treated you badly.
But in any case this is all beside the point, because Boras almost always takes his clients to free agency to see what they're worth. So it probably won't be possible to strike even a ballpark-figure handshake deal with Xander.
However, the Sox could tell Xander that they 100% want him back, verify that he wants to stay as badly as it seems he does, and float the rental idea to him. And that's just to make sure he doesn't feel betrayed. Let him decide whether he wants to go to the Cardinals etc. and have a shot at a ring.
If he does, the Sox trade him and tell the fans that they have every intent of re-signing him a la the Yankees and Chapman. They do not say that Xander approved the trade and Xander doesn't either, because that knowledge (which strengthens the idea that he will return) would change the dynamic of his free agency.
Specifically, if teams know both sides are intent on his returning, they may offer more money, with the purpose of driving up the price for the Red Sox. And in fact the Red Sox would be wise, when asked by other teams how serious they are about re-signing him, to say, with absolute truthfulness, "well, you're going to tell the fans that in any case." And then not make their own offer. Once they've seen all the offers, which they know are legit and not bluffs to raise the price, they reach a deal pretty quickly.
Another second thought: if they sell, CV has to stay, because you have so many young pitchers, and you want them working with a top pitch-caller and framer and, furthermore, the guy they'll be working with in the future. So he's not a rental candidate.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 21, 2022 22:47:05 GMT -5
This is all well and good, but the Red Sox have in fact already given Xander an insultingly low offer (just tacking one $30 million year onto the current deal that runs through 2026). And of course they signed Story, which doesn't help to paint a picture in which they really want him back.
The only scenario I can imagine where they'd have changed their tune is if their real priority was re-signing Devers but they decided that's not going to happen and now want to re-sign Xander as a plan B.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 21, 2022 22:49:42 GMT -5
Exactly. That's what happened to Jon Lester. He realized once he was traded to Oakland, baseball is baseball and business is business. His fantasy of wearing only a Red Sox uniform ended and he realized that the Red Sox franchise was going to do whatever thought was in their own best self-interest, so ultimately why shouldn't he? And I think you're right. It's kind of a fan's dream for the player to think that Boston is the only great place to play and nowhere else is comparable. If a player is happy he might feel that way, but once he gets dealt, and usually it would be against his wishes, and is exposed to another place, that feeling can change. Freddie Freeman says hi. I'm not sure folks know the whole story ... Freeman completely wanted to re-sign with the Braves and the Braves completely wanted him back. Freeman's idiot of an agent gave the Braves what seemed like an ultimatum (24 hours, IIRC), with a bluff high price. The Braves thought he had a deal done at that price and was on the verge of leaving and thought, crap, we can't match that, and immediately made the Olson trade to cover their asses. Freeman then signs with the Dodgers ... four days later. At a price the Braves would have met. When Freeman eventually found out what his agent had done, he fired him. What is missing from your Lester story is that he felt dissed, in this case by a stupidly low initial offer. Now, if I'm an agent and I get that first offer, I come back immediately with an offer that is just as stupidly high. But Lester's agent didn't make a counter-offer. One wonders whether he was actually serving his client's wishes (by not telling Lester "I wouldn't necessarily take that offer seriously"), or whether the Sox lowballed him on purpose because they actually thought he'd be overvalued on the market. But in any case it's hugely easier to get over your desire to not change teams when you think the old team has treated you badly. But in any case this is all beside the point, because Boras almost always takes his clients to free agency to see what they're worth. So it probably won't be possible to strike even a ballpark-figure handshake deal with Xander. However, the Sox could tell Xander that they 100% want him back, verify that he wants to stay as badly as it seems he does, and float the rental idea to him. And that's just to make sure he doesn't feel betrayed. Let him decide whether he wants to go to the Cardinals etc. and have a shot at a ring.
If he does, the Sox trade him and tell the fans that they have every intent of re-signing him a la the Yankees and Chapman. They do not say that Xander approved the trade and Xander doesn't either, because that knowledge (which strengthens the idea that he will return) would change the dynamic of his free agency. Specifically, if teams know both sides are intent on his returning, they may offer more money, with the purpose of driving up the price for the Red Sox. And in fact the Red Sox would be wise, when asked by other teams how serious they are about re-signing him, to say, with absolute truthfulness, "well, you're going to tell the fans that in any case." And then not make their own offer. Once they've seen all the offers, which they know are legit and not bluffs to raise the price, they reach a deal pretty quickly. Another second thought: if they sell, CV has to stay, because you have so many young pitchers, and you want them working with a top pitch-caller and framer and, furthermore, the guy they'll be working with in the future. So he's not a rental candidate.
Yeah, and I would say that the comparison of Lester to Bogaerts thus far is probably more apt than the one to Freeman. From what has been mentioned X felt pretty dissed when the extension offer was pick up an extra year for $30 million on top of his current full term contract. I don't think this is an agent screwed somebody scenario, which apparently was the case with Freeman. Your supposition that X and the Sox FO are on the same page and could come to a long term free agent deal once they trade him to a contender and of course he'll come back seems like a very Red Sox fan centric view to me. I have little doubt that X genuinely wants to stay, but I have a lot of doubt that he and the FO have some sort of deal in which they agree to trade him and have him sign back. That's really far fetched. Either they extend him, let him walk, or trade him. If they hold to extend him, then they have to hold on to him. If they don't really intend on signing him to anything other than a serious hometown discount, they might as well trade him, unless of course the Sox go on some sort of hot streak in which they wouldn't deal him regardless.
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Post by keninten on Jul 21, 2022 23:50:08 GMT -5
Ok, let`s say the Sox and X do a little side deal, then X is hurt and it will have an effect on him for the rest of his career. Do the Sox have to honor it? I would say yes, just because I believe someone`s word should be paramount. On the other hand what if another team does blowaway the Sox offer. I just think it`s underhanded to do a deal like this. If in a negotiation one side offers something like this I would hope I would walk away.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 22, 2022 0:14:26 GMT -5
Ok, let`s say the Sox and X do a little side deal, then X is hurt and it will have an effect on him for the rest of his career. Do the Sox have to honor it? I would say yes, just because I believe someone`s word should be paramount. On the other hand what if another team does blowaway the Sox offer. I just think it`s underhanded to do a deal like this. If in a negotiation one side offers something like this I would hope I would walk away. The answer is a very clear 'no'. This wouldn't be a 'deal' but an understanding of each party's plans, along with an understanding that circumstances can change each party's plans. If Xander had a monster 2 months after being traded, and was offered a deal for double what the Red Sox are offering, he would take it. There is no deal, until there is a deal. His agent would make sure he is aware of this.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 22, 2022 1:39:38 GMT -5
I am of the mindset of if they have absolutely any interest in bringing Xander back you don't trade him and let him put on another uniform and realize that baseball is baseball no matter where he plays. He'd be traded to a contender where he will hear his name cheered just as loudly as he does in fenway. If that happens he may realize he doesn't need to stay in Boston to feel the love. If they trade him then to me that means they have no interest in bringing him back which if that is the case then trade him if you can get back a package with a player close to contributing to the ML squad. You must like Vegas. That’s a huge gamble. I don’t know how many people you know that like other teams but I have too many and they all love and adore X. Wherever he goes people will love him. The type of player and person that he is. Bloom and his team need to just figure out if we can and should meet the demands by the deadline. If he doesn’t know so and we are not in position to win this year then you have to see what you can get for him. If there’s a package worth it then I will be heartbroken but at least we traded him to a contender so he has a chance to win and we guarantee ourselves a return. Unfortunately we are looking worse and worse and the deadline is getting closer. edit. I like Verdugo a lot but hopefully if we did trade X we would get a better return then we got for Mookie. I don’t know if Bloom would be to popular with trading both of them just to save money in this market. Betts had to come out saying he would of signed that same contract the Dodgers offered this past weekend at the ASG proved Bloom did that once already.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 22, 2022 4:29:03 GMT -5
This is all well and good, but the Red Sox have in fact already given Xander an insultingly low offer (just tacking one $30 million year onto the current deal that runs through 2026). And of course they signed Story, which doesn't help to paint a picture in which they really want him back. The only scenario I can imagine where they'd have changed their tune is if their real priority was re-signing Devers but they decided that's not going to happen and now want to re-sign Xander as a plan B. That offer was made after he was ranked 35th out of 36 SS in Outs Above Average / Runs Prevented. He's immensely less valuable as a LF than as a SS, and he looked like a guy who might need to move to the OF as soon as 2023 or 2024. Even a move to 2B would diminish his value significantly.
He ranked 35 out of 40 in 2020, 31 out of 35 in 2019, 29 out of 36 in 2018. You had to go back to 2017m when he was 24, to find a season where he was above average.
This year he ranks 13th out of 36, and is +2 Outs Above Average and +1 Runs Prevented. I think that changes his actual value a lot, and more than his perceived value. I think that when an otherwise hugely desirable player has defensive red flags, there is a natural tendency to downplay that downside (call it the Hanley Ramiez, OFer Effect). It's the exact same psychological effect as the one that causes people to start relationships with attractive people who have behavioral red flags, or buy a great-looking car with a terrible reputation for reliability.
I don't think that signing Story indicated that they didn't want him back. It upgraded 2B a lot and it was a plan B if they decided, as seemed quite possible, that Xander was not going to be worth the money it would take to re-sign him, because of their defensive projection and the just-mentioned tendency for other teams to discount it. The good defense this year squares up his actual value with what other teams will be willing to pay him, and makes an extension a smart move.
Story's also been the second-best defensive 2B in MLB.
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Post by lonborgski on Jul 22, 2022 4:59:38 GMT -5
I have a memory of this happening, but can't remember who did it.
See my last reply for the fear you express. Xander has made it really clear that he loves playing for this ream and want to stay here.
BTW, if he's not interested in playing elsewhere, even if it means another shot at a ring, you just keep him.
Chapman: July 25, 2016: Traded by the New York Yankees to the Chicago Cubs for Rashad Crawford (minors), Billy McKinney, Gleyber Torres and Adam Warren. November 3, 2016: Granted Free Agency. December 15, 2016: Signed as a Free Agent with the New York Yankees. Jason Hammell February 13, 2014: Signed as a Free Agent with the Chicago Cubs. July 5, 2014: Traded by the Chicago Cubs with Jeff Samardzija to the Oakland Athletics for Billy McKinney, Addison Russell, Dan Straily and cash. October 30, 2014: Granted Free Agency. December 12, 2014: Signed as a Free Agent with the Chicago Cubs. So we need to get Billy McKinney!
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 22, 2022 5:49:29 GMT -5
[...]
I don't think that signing Story indicated that they didn't want him back. It upgraded 2B a lot and it was a plan B if they decided, as seemed quite possible, that Xander was not going to be worth the money it would take to re-sign him, because of their defensive projection and the just-mentioned tendency for other teams to discount it. The good defense this year squares up his actual value with what other teams will be willing to pay him, and makes an extension a smart move.
Story's also been the second-best defensive 2B in MLB.
One thing I haven't seen discussed: are there people on this site who can look at the (great) way Story is playing 2b and judge whether he would still be a good SS in 2023 if we went that route? I can't. Do people have a sense that he has made enough good long over-the-top throws to give you an idea of whether his arm is still up for SS?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 22, 2022 12:31:54 GMT -5
[...] I don't think that signing Story indicated that they didn't want him back. It upgraded 2B a lot and it was a plan B if they decided, as seemed quite possible, that Xander was not going to be worth the money it would take to re-sign him, because of their defensive projection and the just-mentioned tendency for other teams to discount it. The good defense this year squares up his actual value with what other teams will be willing to pay him, and makes an extension a smart move.
Story's also been the second-best defensive 2B in MLB.
One thing I haven't seen discussed: are there people on this site who can look at the (great) way Story is playing 2b and judge whether he would still be a good SS in 2023 if we went that route? I can't. Do people have a sense that he has made enough good long over-the-top throws to give you an idea of whether his arm is still up for SS? I'm assuming this is related to his prior elbow injuries and you're wanting to know 'does he have the velocity back?'. I think the best way to determine that would be by measuring the velocity when he's fielding, but I don't believe this information is publicly shared (I'm assuming teams check this). Statistically, Statcast/Baseball Savant has him as above average from all possible throwing positions which they track (in/out/left/right).He's currently the best among 2nd basemen (5) at throws going toward 1st base, but he trails Schoop by a great deal on throws going toward 3rd base. So he's not nearly as good as Schoop (likely the best defensive 2nd baseman) on long throws this year, but he's also tied for 5th best (2) at those throws, which is pretty good. His average distance from home plate (152 ft) is further than he was at SS (145 ft) but that's typical, and both numbers are very average for their respective positions. DRS/UZR/OAA all had him peaking defensively in 2019 with a drop-off since, but only OAA had him becoming negative while DRS and UZR both showed him as above average at SS in 2020 & 2021. I found your question interesting and tried to answer it using the publicly available statistics, but in the end, I don't think there's enough there to say one way or the other. That said, there also aren't clear indications that he wasn't able to still play SS at a below-to-above average level in 2021, so I'm guessing he would be just fine out there. A larger concern may be the long-term wear on his arm. There were many rumors this off-season that teams were scared he would require tommy john surgery at some point during his next contract, which may have lead to the reduced market cost/demand. Does playing 2B rather than SS reduce that concern? Maybe. I do think it's strange that Arroyo (a good 2b but poor SS) is playing SS over Story on days Xander is out.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 22, 2022 12:39:59 GMT -5
Story, according to Statcast, had not touched 80 mph on a throw entering Friday night’s play and had reached that velocity only once since the start of Aug. 2021, when he was still the Rockies’ shortstop. Prior to that, he had more than 150 throws of 80 mph since 2017. His hardest throw this season was 78.2 mph, and it completed an excellent play. One caveat is that second basemen do not get as many opportunities to air out their throws as shortstops. Another caveat is that Story is so athletic, the Red Sox graded him as a plus defender at short last season even though he had throwing issues. theathletic.com/3396924/2022/07/02/mlb-trade-deadline-padres-fernando-tatis/
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