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Post by dirtdog on Jul 22, 2022 12:47:51 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 22, 2022 13:07:24 GMT -5
Story, according to Statcast, had not touched 80 mph on a throw entering Friday night’s play and had reached that velocity only once since the start of Aug. 2021, when he was still the Rockies’ shortstop. Prior to that, he had more than 150 throws of 80 mph since 2017. His hardest throw this season was 78.2 mph, and it completed an excellent play. One caveat is that second basemen do not get as many opportunities to air out their throws as shortstops. Another caveat is that Story is so athletic, the Red Sox graded him as a plus defender at short last season even though he had throwing issues. theathletic.com/3396924/2022/07/02/mlb-trade-deadline-padres-fernando-tatis/Wish they shared this information in its entirety. Does the article mention what the average throw, or max throw, would be for a second baseman?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 22, 2022 13:14:38 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 23, 2022 4:21:34 GMT -5
What I would do:
First, keep Xander and CV. They are important members of the 2023 team and beyond. (Having thought it through, I don't think Xander would want to be a rental, so that idea is kaput.)
Next, be willing to eat some salary in trades in order to get the prospects they really want.
Acquire the best-bang-for buck 1B, DH and LHR. By "buck" I mean prospect value; I don't want them trading anyone they really like. We're looking for adequate here, that's all. Upside is a bonus.
Give Refsnyfer much more PT against RHP (at JBJ's expense).
Trade JDM. Upgrading 1B and RF to offensive adequacy covers the downgrade to whoever you pick up.
Trade either Eovaldi or Wacha, and maybe Hill as well (I believe the latter two are expected back before the deadline, along with Winck). Whether you can afford to deal Hill depends on when Seabold might be ready, and whether they think Murphy, Walter, and / or Mata would be viable plug-ins in case of injury, and when the latter two will be ready.
(Yeah, Hill has limited trade value on paper ... but if there's a contender with crap for 5th starer, they would want him.)
Trade Strahm if Barnes is looking good in his rehab.
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Crawford has a .249 xwOBA since his recall (.294 wOBA). Wink has a .299 / .305 since his recall despite two awful outings preceding his IL stint (which always suggests he was bothered by the injury already, and was trying to pitch through it). Bello had a .314 xwOBA in his second start. I like the idea of a rotation of those three behind Pivetta and Eovaldi or Wacha.
The hope of course is that you sneak into a WC spot and have a first-rate Sale and Paxton in your rotation, Kiké in CF, and so on.
And that you pick up some seriously undervalued sleeper prospects.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 23, 2022 4:26:53 GMT -5
Eric I know your posts are very well-researched but that post seems like pretty wishful thinking.
Kiké has been bad for a long time now, Sale might not return this season and Eovaldi has regressed. The rotation and outfield both fell apart and 1B is among the weakest in the league.
To your credit, I remember you advocated at least exploring selling high on Eovaldi in the offseason, which in hindsight would’ve been the right move.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 23, 2022 7:36:24 GMT -5
I’d like to see them add money to get prospects too, but think it’s more likely they try and duck under the tax
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 23, 2022 7:41:56 GMT -5
And if nothing else adding more prospects now gives us more ammo to make moves in the offseason as well. Not necessarily dealing the same prospects but allowing us to deal current prospects at the same position if need be.
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Post by kwodes on Jul 23, 2022 8:47:40 GMT -5
They could theoretically buy AND sell with a complex "sell rentals to buy" via 3-way deals. For example...
Mets receive: Eovaldi JD
Red Sox receive: Bryan Reynolds David Bednar
Pirates receive: Brett Baty Jarren Duran Nick Yorke 1 of Winckowski/Seabold/kutter
Obviously, this is one specific example, but if chaim could do something creative like this I think it would be walking that fine line between buying and selling.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 23, 2022 9:08:05 GMT -5
Eric I know your posts are very well-researched but that post seems like pretty wishful thinking. Kiké has been bad for a long time now, Sale might not return this season and Eovaldi has regressed. The rotation and outfield both fell apart and 1B is among the weakest in the league. To your credit, I remember you advocated at least exploring selling high on Eovaldi in the offseason, which in hindsight would’ve been the right move. Kikè had a bad start but he was mostly his normal self after he got over it. His problem is that he’s not healthy and we don’t know when he’s going to be back. I can’t see another team taking a risk and giving up anything of value for him plus we can’t really depend on him
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 23, 2022 9:12:26 GMT -5
The one good thing about all this is that this will reveal Chaim Bloom's intentions regarding Xander and it could reveal his intentions about Devers.
If he is serious about retaining Xander, then he will not trade him and he will give him a serious offer because keeping him and then giving him a low ball offer would be incredibly stupid.
And that goes double for Devers although Bloom isn't under pressure to trade him by August 2nd, but if Bloom has no intention of offering him the 300 plus million it'll take to keep Devers then Bloom needs to trade Devers this winter.
None of this low ball offer nonsense. Either you're really serious about keeping the player(s) or not.
Because it's becoming more and more apparent that this team isn't worth investing prospect capital to improve and that this team is in need of a serious overhaul. The injured players cannot be counted on to ride back to the rescue. And it's obvious that this team cannot handle good teams, which is what they would find in the post-season. I mean this team might upset Minnesota, but they'd get flattened by Houston, let alone any of the AL East teams.
The thing is though, I don't expect them to get a lot of top notch talent through selling unfortunately.
I do think they can get something nice for Eovaldi, although if he continues to look the way he has, the return could be disappointing.
I hope they get something nice for JDM, but I remember JDM being a lot better with Detroit in 2017 and them getting very little from Arizona for him. Hopefully that's only because their GM wasn't that good. Hopefully Bloom can do a little bit better there.
Beyond that, they have a lot of spare parts of middling value, like a Hill or a Strahm or a Wacha. They can get something for those guys but I wouldn't expect much more than a lottery ticket or a guy with a middle relief ceiling.
I do think they can get something useful for Vazquez, but the catching market is so thin, my guess is that their catching would become a black hole without him. In other words I don't think Wong or Hernandez can adequately replace Vazquez and I doubt there's anything better on the open market. I guess if it's a total rebuild it won't matter. It seems to me that extending Vazquez for say 2 or 3 years at 20 to 30 million would bring him back as Vazquez has made it clear he desires to be nowhere else. Maybe in Vazquez's case you do take the chance of trading him if you can get value, and then try to sign him back. If he comes back, great, catching isn't a black hole of suck, and if he doesn't come back....well, they could be in rebuild mode anyways.
If Bloom decides X and Devers aren't worth keeping around he can get an absolute haul. For X anyways, he can get really solid prospect I'd think? For Devers, this offseason, I'd think he can get a regular, a legit top prospect, a good prospect, and an interesting lottery guy.
Of course if he goes that course, the team will not be very good so he'll spend his saved money and try to do some more Kiké Hernandez/Michael Wacha contracts to keep the team near .500 (75 wins maybe?) for a portion of the season while he waits for the guys to move along the farm system and come up to Boston, like Casas and Rafaela.
Of course the alternative is that this team could go for it, miss, and get absolutely nothing.
What a terrible place to be in.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 23, 2022 9:14:34 GMT -5
I’d like to see them add money to get prospects too, but think it’s more likely they try and duck under the tax Actually, you make a good point. They get rid of Eovaldi and Martinez and that should accomplish that. They do have enough pieces to sell to duck under and keep the reset going.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 23, 2022 9:36:01 GMT -5
Guess what it comes down to is the market itself. If the market favors the seller, then the Sox should definitely sell anything they don't intend to keep.
If the market favors the buyer and the Sox wouldn't get much for selling they might as well make one last run. Given where the Sox are at, hopefully the market favors the seller and the Sox should get what they can for anybody they don't intend on keeping long-term.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 23, 2022 9:39:48 GMT -5
They could theoretically buy AND sell with a complex "sell rentals to buy" via 3-way deals. For example... Mets receive: Eovaldi JD Red Sox receive: Bryan Reynolds David Bednar Pirates receive: Brett Baty Jarren Duran Nick Yorke 1 of Winckowski/Seabold/kutter Obviously, this is one specific example, but if chaim could do something creative like this I think it would be walking that fine line between buying and selling. I agree and I think this is what they want to do. They’re too good to just do a straight fire sale. Bloom talks about extending their window, this is how they do it and this is a great time
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Post by borisman on Jul 23, 2022 10:15:05 GMT -5
If the Sox trade all those players, as redsoxchamps mentions as possibilities, and then trade Devers in the off-season, the fans will revolt and you will see LOTS of empty seats in Fenway next season. I don't see it happening for that reason alone, especially since the ticket prices are outrageous. I see Sox keeping Devers and then spending money in off-season. This season is looking a bit lost right now with all the injuries, bullpen problems and the bottom half of batting order not pulling their weight. And now the starting pitching is struggling. Bad combos resulting in plummeting record.
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Post by prospectlove on Jul 23, 2022 10:26:58 GMT -5
To me it’s apparent the Red Sox pitching is a weekness. In the year the Sox were one of worst teams in league ( Covid year) their pitching was horrible. This year relievers and started set them back again. This has now becomes blooms team. The holes (1st, of, bullpen, starters) are his doing!
I believe this: he is slow to move and allows players time and time and time to fully show their value or lack of it. That works in small market teams where they don’t expect to win year in and year out. It will not work in Boston where massacres like last night bring out the sharks. He won’t last if he can’t fill holes quicker. ( be that in minors or majors)
Additionally- he’s hesitant ( and ownership seems to be also) to give up market leading/setting contracts out ( devers and Xander).
So it he loses devers/Xander/jd/euvaldi AND don’t fill the clear holes on their team now this off season —- Chaim won’t be here for a 4th season. I truly believe from here till end of next season chaim is at a breaking point of his tenure in Boston. They have to show improvements at the major league level
This is just commenting based off Boston market. But it starts with this trade deadline.
What do I think should be done…? Give in to not winning this season and deal those who won’t be here next year. Decide if Xander or devers can be signed ( ownership call). If not— deal one or both. And honestly - if your dealing both I believe you need a headliner to reboot with. ( Soto/judge/?). I’m not saying what I like or don’t like just that you better have a face and show you have a plan for a face because I don’t know how you survive without it. You have to take a strong stand on your position and be basically willing to “fall on” your sword. Whatever that is. NOW is the time to start putting your imprint on this next wave of talent I believe
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Post by manfred on Jul 23, 2022 10:31:23 GMT -5
To me it’s apparent the Red Sox pitching is a weekness. In the year the Sox were one of worst teams in league ( Covid year) their pitching was horrible. This year relievers and started set them back again. This has now becomes blooms team. The holes (1st, of, bullpen, starters) are his doing! I believe this: he is slow to move and allows players time and time and time to fully show their value or lack of it. That works in small market teams where they don’t expect to win year in and year out. It will not work in Boston where massacres like last night bring out the sharks. He won’t last if he can’t fill holes quicker. ( be that in minors or majors) Additionally- he’s hesitant ( and ownership seems to be also) to give up market leading/setting contracts out ( devers and Xander). So it he loses devers/Xander/jd/euvaldi AND don’t fill the clear holes on their team now this off season —- Chaim won’t be here for a 4th season. I truly believe from here till end of next season chaim is at a breaking point of his tenure in Boston. They have to show improvements at the major league level This is just commenting based off Boston market. But it starts with this trade deadline. What do I think should be done…? Give in to not winning this season and deal those who won’t be here next year. Decide if Xander or devers can be signed ( ownership call). If not— deal one or both. And honestly - if your dealing both I believe you need a headliner to reboot with. ( Soto/judge/?). I’m not saying what I like or don’t like just that you better have a face and show you have a plan for a face because I don’t know how you survive without it. You have to take a strong stand on your position and be basically willing to “fall on” your sword. Whatever that is. NOW is the time to start putting your imprint on this next wave of talent I believe If they traded Devers and signed Judge, I’d root for the Yankees against them. Dead to me until the entire organization is purged from owner to beer vendors. Thankfully, it is not going to happen.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 23, 2022 11:20:01 GMT -5
Devers has to be off the table. They would not get equal value. He is too good a hitter.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 23, 2022 11:44:08 GMT -5
A thought on Devers: the only situation where you should trade him is one where another organization believes in his defense and you don’t, or the sustainability of this level of hitting, and so they’d be willing to give up more than you think he’s worth. That seems like it could very plausibly exist. If they go full on seller mode at the deadline I could see that move as an outside possibly.
Having said that, I would much prefer they pay him, I personally believe in his D and like having guys to root for for long periods, but the team knows a lot more than I do about the performance. Anyhow I still hope as others do they do a mix of buying and selling that still gives them a chance if everything left clicks this year, but overall improves their system for the long term.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Jul 23, 2022 12:50:45 GMT -5
I don't see Bloom/Ownership trading Xander. At this point they have to hear the building uproar, both in the locker room and on the streets. Xander actually has gotten out in front of this so they can't spin the "he wants too much, he really just wanted out." Like they did with Mookie. While it's a business and listening to the masses is not usually the smartest move, this organization and Henry value PR. The stars have started to align with the enormous ticket prices, they're history with home grown talent (Mookie and Lester) and the fact that Xander is one bright spot on a mediocre team. He's a fan favorite and Boras's PR machine might be potent enough to put pressure on the ownership. I don't think Henry and crew want a mutiny in the clubhouse and six months of talk radio/press destroying them and the fans perhaps not showing up/ boycotting the box office.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 23, 2022 14:09:02 GMT -5
Mets got LHB Vogelbach from PITTSBURGH. Sox didn't.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 23, 2022 14:27:12 GMT -5
Mets got LHB Vogelbach from PITTSBURGH. Sox didn't. Pirates got a MLB reliever and #10 in the Mets system/40+ FV prospect (fangraphs ratings). About what the Red Sox gave up last year to get Schwarber, if that rating is accurate.
This makes me interested in what the Mets might give up to get Eovaldi, JDM, Vazquez...
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 23, 2022 15:01:44 GMT -5
Eric I know your posts are very well-researched but that post seems like pretty wishful thinking. Kiké has been bad for a long time now, Sale might not return this season and Eovaldi has regressed. The rotation and outfield both fell apart and 1B is among the weakest in the league. To your credit, I remember you advocated at least exploring selling high on Eovaldi in the offseason, which in hindsight would’ve been the right move. It's not quite wishful thinking ... it's covering your asses in case your luck pulls a 180.
If you can put yourself in a position to capitalize on that, you do so. I'd put the chance at this happening as 5% ... but the significant downside here is merely that you don't get prospects for both Wacha and Eovaldi. That's the only major difference between my suggestion and a full-on sell excepting X and CV
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 23, 2022 15:06:51 GMT -5
I’d like to see them add money to get prospects too, but think it’s more likely they try and duck under the tax If they don't trade a guy, his whole salary counts against the tax limit. If they trade him and pay half of his salary to get the prospect they really want, only half of it does.
So the two ideas are not incompatible.
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Post by archibaldgraham on Jul 23, 2022 15:32:12 GMT -5
Lifelong Sox fan. New to this site. I’m Somewhat sane. Buttttt Gotta sell! This team is in shambles(not in a clubhouse cancer way but a just not happening this year way). I’m beyond sick of seeing JD foul off pitches he should be hitting for home runs. Sell him. Xander is redundant at this point(and I love him and Aruba). Sell. Eovaldi is a good pitcher on a team 2-3 yrs away from a legit run. Sell. Vasquez is a 30ish yr old catcher. Whom I love. Sell! Verdugo is what he is. Is he gonna provide more than what he is. I don’t see it. We prob have a couple of him on the farm. Sell! Anyway. Sox fans are passionate and I would hope reasonable and knowledgeable as well. We aren’t there. We have a high payroll and not a ton to show for it considering who we need to extend. Sell. Let’s clear the books. Let’s see what the kids can do and let’s allow bloom to add some smart signings that make sense. This board is full of super bright members, whom I read often. Big fans of lots of you guys. So I know u know(as lifelong Sox fans)when it just isn’t happening.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 23, 2022 15:39:39 GMT -5
Mets got LHB Vogelbach from PITTSBURGH. Sox didn't. Pirates got a MLB reliever and #10 in the Mets system/40+ FV prospect (fangraphs ratings). About what the Red Sox gave up last year to get Schwarber, if that rating is accurate.
This makes me interested in what the Mets might give up to get Eovaldi, JDM, Vazquez...
I would be annoyed at that deal if I were a Mets fan. Vogelbach is barely worth a roster spot
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