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Post by manfred on Jul 24, 2022 9:24:13 GMT -5
I hope they make a legitimate effort to resign eovaldi and Kiké. I think they should trade every other pending free agent. It's not an Alex Cora problem, it's a Dave Dombrowski problem. it's really understated how poorly he left the organization. I think chaim has done a great job building it the right way. Remember, it took the dodgers a few years to get that foundation built before they became the model organization. Build the foundation first, with emphasis on not just acquiring minor league talent, but on getting the player development done right. Once you have the pipeline set you can make the yearly trade deadline splashes while keeping the farm system intact. Once the money opens up they can flex their financial muscle by offering stars short term deals with opt outs for huge AAVs while supplementing those rosters with cheap young talent. Yes, it is Dombrowski’s fault. He never should have traded for all the guys with negative WARs in todays lineup: JBJ, Verdugo, Downs, Franchy… what was he thinking? Dude has been gone for *years*. All the folks looking to sell should consider the hauls they got for Mookie and Beni. Why do people look at more trades as somehow automatically restocking? It is not a layup… the return so far has been pretty poor. Why would trading JDM, for example, get a lot? Why would the guys who thought Downs was the 2b of the future or Franchy is fixable be so on it this time? I’m not against trading JDM, mind, but it will likely be for little. X is worth more to the Sox, though, than whatever they get to rent him for 2 months.
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Post by bcsox on Jul 24, 2022 9:26:40 GMT -5
Why are we pining to resign Kiké after he is going to essentially miss a whole year with a hip injury that it appears itâs quite possible that neither he nor the medical team have any handle on?
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Post by kwodes on Jul 24, 2022 9:39:04 GMT -5
Why are we pining to resign Kiké after he is going to essentially miss a whole year with a hip injury that it appears itâs quite possible that neither he nor the medical team have any handle on? It's not necessarily pining, it's the fact that you can sign him for probably cheaper than the 2/14 they signed him for originally and when healthy he's a huge asset to the roster.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 24, 2022 9:51:56 GMT -5
Why are we pining to resign Kiké after he is going to essentially miss a whole year with a hip injury that it appears itâs quite possible that neither he nor the medical team have any handle on? Recency bias for a player who had a career year. Also, Chaim seemed to have bet on everyone last year who had career years or near-career years repeating those performances, which is diametrically opposed to the approach he's said to be a proponent of (i.e, primarily stats-driven). Base rates are base rates for all but developing players, and even then, they are nearly predictive. Kiké is a low OBP, low wRC+ utility guy who played out of his mind last year and had his best WAR year at age 29 (4.0 fWAR). The chance that such a performance would've been repeated was extremely low. In fact, before last year, Kiké had only had an fWAR above 1.5 in a full season once in his entire career (fWAR 3.1), and that was in his age 26 season. Bloom had every reason to expect that Kiké would regress significantly back much closer to those base rates, while perhaps hoping not quite as low. It became an outlier good 2-year contract and would've been very good if he could've just put up a 2.0 fWAR season this year (which would be above his previous base rates). But even if he comes back and plays out of his mind again for 6-8 weeks, the Red Sox should let him go after this year (the way they originally did for JBJ).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 24, 2022 10:01:04 GMT -5
I hope they make a legitimate effort to resign eovaldi and Kiké. I think they should trade every other pending free agent. It's not an Alex Cora problem, it's a Dave Dombrowski problem. it's really understated how poorly he left the organization. I think chaim has done a great job building it the right way. Remember, it took the dodgers a few years to get that foundation built before they became the model organization. Build the foundation first, with emphasis on not just acquiring minor league talent, but on getting the player development done right. Once you have the pipeline set you can make the yearly trade deadline splashes while keeping the farm system intact. Once the money opens up they can flex their financial muscle by offering stars short term deals with opt outs for huge AAVs while supplementing those rosters with cheap young talent. Yes, it is Dombrowskiâs fault. He never should have traded for all the guys with negative WARs in todays lineup: JBJ, Verdugo, Downs, Franchy⦠what was he thinking? Dude has been gone for *years*. All the folks looking to sell should consider the hauls they got for Mookie and Beni. Why do people look at more trades as somehow automatically restocking? It is not a layup⦠the return so far has been pretty poor. Why would trading JDM, for example, get a lot? Why would the guys who thought Downs was the 2b of the future or Franchy is fixable be so on it this time? Iâm not against trading JDM, mind, but it will likely be for little. X is worth more to the Sox, though, than whatever they get to rent him for 2 months. Yeah, this let's blame everything on Dombrowski is getting silly. His big mistake was choosing to re-sign Sale and Eovaldi (he also made a good move in extending X for a bargain deal) which made it impossible to sign Mookie, although there are two things we don't know - was Dombrowski under the illusion that the Sox would routinely blow by the highest luxury tax threshold every year and say Dombrowski hadn't brought back Sale and Eovaldi, would Henry have had the stomach to give Mookie the 12 year 365 million deal he ultimately sought and got? If the dollar amount was a total mystery, then I'd cut Henry more slack on this, but when guys like me who are constantly wrong, was actually in the correct neighborhood of what it would likely cost to sign Mookie, then this tells me that Henry didn't want to pay him that money regardless of whether they had used it up on Sale and Eovaldi and as it is, Dombrowski guessed wrong on Sale and guessed right on Eovaldi, who has been the Sox best starter the past two years (and nobody was even remotely close to him). Dombrowski probably thought that signing Sale would be a bargain given what Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer would wind up getting. In 2018 Chris Sale was headed for a Cy Young award until he broke down. The last time we saw Sale in 2018 he finally looked like his dominant self, even if for only one inning so that's the last impression of Sale that Dombrowski had. So he thought that Sale would be fine in 2019 and beyond....and he was extremely wrong and compounding that gamble was that he needlessly signed him a year earlier when he didn't need to. That said, he left his a solid core behind for Bloom that included the guys who have been their mainstays. He left behind a shattered farm system, but I truly don't think it's a product of his deals which were pretty sound for the most part - the only guys they lost of significance were Moncada, Kopech, Margot, and Espinal and none of them are franchise players by any stretch and I certainly don't regret them getting who those guys were dealt for. The issue was lack of pitching development in the minor league system and mediocre drafting for the most part. So on that front subtract points for leaving Bloom a mostly barren farm system, unlike the one he inherited that had just produced some serious offensive talent. I think the core Bloom received isn't all that different from the core that Theo Epstein got from Dan Duquette, a strong major league core with a limited farm system, but Theo really did a helluva job supplementing that major league core in record time. He had the advantage of being the prototype of GM that now all GMs are, so it's a lot tougher in Bloom's day to find the next David Ortiz, Bill Muller, Kevin Millar, Mark Bellhorn, and Bronson Arroyo so easily. But Theo did supplement that core. I look at Bloom so far and I don't see where it's truly been supplemented. Verdugo and Pivetta are the biggest additions and their basically average to slightly above average players. He stole Whitlock, so Bloom did very well there and that's what he has done best, advance the farm system, building the organization from the bottom up instead of the top down. Hopefully that way provides dividends by the middle of the decade, but I don't see where the deals have produced a lot of results. Obviously he had one hand tied behind his back with David Price involved in the Mookie deal (with Price, overall not a great signing, but I sure value the way he pitched in the biggest games of his life, the 2018 World Series, where he should have been the co-MVP), but that deal didn't net them much other than Verdugo, who is not somebody I'd want extended once he starts to get expensive. I liked Downs at the time and I know he's young, but I don't think he'll ultimately hit enough to be more than a second division regular, if he does hit well enough. I've come to the conclusion that Franchy Cordero is always going to be Franchy Cordero and that the deal boils down to Benintendi for Winchowski, 2 years of a regular LF with on-base skills and negligible power for six years of a swing man (as I ultimately think Winckowski winds up in the pen in long relief making occasional spot starts and in his best years is the #5 starter). To tie this all together to where they are now. I think Bloom will try to load up on talent obtained in these deals, particularly from dealing X and Eovaldi, and possibly Vazquez to enhance the minor leagues - he'll trade JDM but I don't expect much return there. He will spend $ next year and I think he'll get them in shouting distance of the threshold and I say this thinking that he will deal Devers for a haul. The kind of value they were getting with Kiké Hernandez last year or Michael Wacha this year, the kind of gambling with Paxton, the trading a regular for minor league talent and a bad contract (like JBJ/Renfroe and Binelas this year) - we will see those bags of tricks and yeah, he'll probably sign a midtier free agent of two. He will spread around the money while he waits for the farm system to blossom which will take a few years. I think Henry will give him that rope and we'll see if around 2025 the Sox have a new core in place, because right now there is no core once Dombrowski's guys get divested. They will have interchangeable parts until the Mayers, Bleises, Casas', etc start percolating and can form the next core of the next seriously contending Red Sox team.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 24, 2022 12:23:56 GMT -5
Why are we pining to resign Kiké after he is going to essentially miss a whole year with a hip injury that it appears itâs quite possible that neither he nor the medical team have any handle on? It's not necessarily pining, it's the fact that you can sign him for probably cheaper than the 2/14 they signed him for originally and when healthy he's a huge asset to the roster. I wonder how a hip injury will affect his speed/ mobility/ range going forward.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 24, 2022 12:31:42 GMT -5
Yes, it is Dombrowskiâs fault. He never should have traded for all the guys with negative WARs in todays lineup: JBJ, Verdugo, Downs, Franchy⦠what was he thinking? Dude has been gone for *years*. All the folks looking to sell should consider the hauls they got for Mookie and Beni. Why do people look at more trades as somehow automatically restocking? It is not a layup⦠the return so far has been pretty poor. Why would trading JDM, for example, get a lot? Why would the guys who thought Downs was the 2b of the future or Franchy is fixable be so on it this time? Iâm not against trading JDM, mind, but it will likely be for little. X is worth more to the Sox, though, than whatever they get to rent him for 2 months. Yeah, this let's blame everything on Dombrowski is getting silly. His big mistake was choosing to re-sign Sale and Eovaldi (he also made a good move in extending X for a bargain deal) which made it impossible to sign Mookie, although there are two things we don't know - was Dombrowski under the illusion that the Sox would routinely blow by the highest luxury tax threshold every year and say Dombrowski hadn't brought back Sale and Eovaldi, would Henry have had the stomach to give Mookie the 12 year 365 million deal he ultimately sought and got? If the dollar amount was a total mystery, then I'd cut Henry more slack on this, but when guys like me who are constantly wrong, was actually in the correct neighborhood of what it would likely cost to sign Mookie, then this tells me that Henry didn't want to pay him that money regardless of whether they had used it up on Sale and Eovaldi and as it is, Dombrowski guessed wrong on Sale and guessed right on Eovaldi, who has been the Sox best starter the past two years (and nobody was even remotely close to him). Dombrowski probably thought that signing Sale would be a bargain given what Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer would wind up getting. In 2018 Chris Sale was headed for a Cy Young award until he broke down. The last time we saw Sale in 2018 he finally looked like his dominant self, even if for only one inning so that's the last impression of Sale that Dombrowski had. So he thought that Sale would be fine in 2019 and beyond....and he was extremely wrong and compounding that gamble was that he needlessly signed him a year earlier when he didn't need to. That said, he left his a solid core behind for Bloom that included the guys who have been their mainstays. He left behind a shattered farm system, but I truly don't think it's a product of his deals which were pretty sound for the most part - the only guys they lost of significance were Moncada, Kopech, Margot, and Espinal and none of them are franchise players by any stretch and I certainly don't regret them getting who those guys were dealt for. The issue was lack of pitching development in the minor league system and mediocre drafting for the most part. So on that front subtract points for leaving Bloom a mostly barren farm system, unlike the one he inherited that had just produced some serious offensive talent. I think the core Bloom received isn't all that different from the core that Theo Epstein got from Dan Duquette, a strong major league core with a limited farm system, but Theo really did a helluva job supplementing that major league core in record time. He had the advantage of being the prototype of GM that now all GMs are, so it's a lot tougher in Bloom's day to find the next David Ortiz, Bill Muller, Kevin Millar, Mark Bellhorn, and Bronson Arroyo so easily. But Theo did supplement that core. I look at Bloom so far and I don't see where it's truly been supplemented. Verdugo and Pivetta are the biggest additions and their basically average to slightly above average players. He stole Whitlock, so Bloom did very well there and that's what he has done best, advance the farm system, building the organization from the bottom up instead of the top down. Hopefully that way provides dividends by the middle of the decade, but I don't see where the deals have produced a lot of results. Obviously he had one hand tied behind his back with David Price involved in the Mookie deal (with Price, overall not a great signing, but I sure value the way he pitched in the biggest games of his life, the 2018 World Series, where he should have been the co-MVP), but that deal didn't net them much other than Verdugo, who is not somebody I'd want extended once he starts to get expensive. I liked Downs at the time and I know he's young, but I don't think he'll ultimately hit enough to be more than a second division regular, if he does hit well enough. I've come to the conclusion that Franchy Cordero is always going to be Franchy Cordero and that the deal boils down to Benintendi for Winchowski, 2 years of a regular LF with on-base skills and negligible power for six years of a swing man (as I ultimately think Winckowski winds up in the pen in long relief making occasional spot starts and in his best years is the #5 starter). To tie this all together to where they are now. I think Bloom will try to load up on talent obtained in these deals, particularly from dealing X and Eovaldi, and possibly Vazquez to enhance the minor leagues - he'll trade JDM but I don't expect much return there. He will spend $ next year and I think he'll get them in shouting distance of the threshold and I say this thinking that he will deal Devers for a haul. The kind of value they were getting with Kiké Hernandez last year or Michael Wacha this year, the kind of gambling with Paxton, the trading a regular for minor league talent and a bad contract (like JBJ/Renfroe and Binelas this year) - we will see those bags of tricks and yeah, he'll probably sign a midtier free agent of two. He will spread around the money while he waits for the farm system to blossom which will take a few years. I think Henry will give him that rope and we'll see if around 2025 the Sox have a new core in place, because right now there is no core once Dombrowski's guys get divested. They will have interchangeable parts until the Mayers, Bleises, Casas', etc start percolating and can form the next core of the next seriously contending Red Sox team. Anyone know where I can get info on how many of these big trades for "prospect hauls" actually work out? When I look back at the big deals the Sox made this century, excluding Mookie, who was a salary dump of Price for 1 year of Mookie, there have been very few hauls, and all of those went the other way. I counted these: 2003 Curt Schilling acquired in exchange for Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon, Jorge de la Rosa, and Michael Goss. Sox won this trade all around with Schilling leading them to their first World Series since 1918, was an all-star and also a key piece of the 2007 team despite being injured that season. He had a 15.1 fWAR over the deal and should be in the Hall of Fame. Fossum was a top prospect and generated 5.1 fWAR over his career, Lyon generated a 2.4 fWAR for the life of his deal. I don't believe Goss or de la Rosa reached the majors. 2006 Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota were acquired for Hanley Ramirez (who I think was the Sox' #1 prospect, Anibal Sanchez Harvey Garcia and Jesus Delgado. In WAR terms, Sox lost this one with Ramirez alone putting up a 32 fWAR during the life of the deal, and the oft-injured Sanchez (who is still pitching)a 2 fWAR, (Garcia and Delgado were non-players) vs. Beckett who was immediately extended (16.2 fWAR over the 5 yrs of that deal) and Lowell (7 fWAR over 2 years of his deal), and Mota -0.3 fWAR. BUT Sox won the 2007 World Series and Beckett and Lowell were vital contributors that season, with Lowell being WS MVP and Beckett being almost untouchable in the playoffs. Most Sox fans would call this a big win (until the Sox signed Beckett to a second extension and Lowell to his first). 2010 Adrian Gonzalez acquired for Casey Kelly (who was the Sox' #1 prospect at the time and a former first-round pick), Anthony Rizzo (ugh!), Reymond Fuentes (also a top 5-10 prospect in the Sox' system and a first round pick), and Eric Patterson. HUGE loss for the Sox all around. Gonzalez played all of 1.5 seasons for the Sox generating 6.2 fWAR his first year, but only 1.5 fWAR for the first half of his second year. Kelly 0.3 fWAR and Fuentes, who never played in MLB were both highly regarded; Patterson ended up with a -0.7 fWAR. I believe Rizzo was either in the system top 10 or just out of it, but played the same position as Gonzalez and has gone on to a lifetime 34.2 (and counting) fWAR. As a coda, Gonzalez' presence did allow the Sox to dump Josh Beckett and his poorly-conceived second extension and Carl Crawford (never should've been signed) to LA, who coveted Gonzalez. The Sox received Nick Punto in the trade, along with the salary relief and this has gone on to be known in Boston as the "Nick Punto Trade." 2015 Sox acquire Craig Kimbrel for Logan Allen, Carlos Asuaje, Javier Guerra and Manuel Margot. At the time, Margot and Allen were ranked in the top 15 of the Sox system, with Margot, I believe, being a top 10 guy. Margot has been a 9.0 fWAR player over the life of the deal. Allen (-0.4fWAR), Asuaje -0.4 fWAR) and Guerra (-0.3fWAR). Kimbrel 5.7 fWAR over the life of his deal was the Proven Closer TM that Dombrowski was sure he needed, and was a key piece of the 2018 World Series team. Chris Sale acquired for Yoán Moncada (who I believe was the #1 prospect) Luis Alexander Basabe, Victor Diaz and Michael Kopech. Moncada 13.2 fWAR and Kopech 2.5 fWAR were the anchors of this deal with Basabe and Diaz generating no MLB value. Sale was 17.4 fWAR over the life of his deal, a key player in the 2017 Division-winning team and 2018 World Series team but should've never been extended beyond 2019 without proving his ability to pitch in 2019 for a full season (a move that likely cost Dombrowski his job). Those are the big ones for the Sox, which shouldn't be seen as illustrative of league-wide success. As you can see, the Sox usually made these deals for a key piece aimed at a World Series run, and usually an ace - and thus the justification for moving some potential long-term value. I would love to see how these big prospect-acquiring deals have worked-out league-wide for other teams trading similar players. For the White Sox, it was a net loss (but a salary flex gain); the Padres would've had a true All Star for six years but traded away the cream of their salary dump, Anthony Rizzo, the next year to the Cubs.
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Post by costpet on Jul 24, 2022 14:00:32 GMT -5
The more I think about it the more I think they should sell. They aren't just missing a couple of pieces that would get them in the playoffs. They are missing a lot of pieces. Looking toward 2023, they need to find some young/minor league guys who have a lot of potential. Guys they can count on in the future. Right now, there's nobody except X and D who they can look to the future. I like Duran but needs time to develop. He could be a great lead off guy but isn't there yet. Other than those guys, we could give up about anybody and not get hurt. I guess the team we saw in the first two months is what we have and what we are.
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Post by soxin8 on Jul 24, 2022 14:33:46 GMT -5
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Jul 24, 2022 15:27:00 GMT -5
Also not sure where you, Guidas, are getting your numbers for Anibal Sanchez. 3.7 fWAR at age 22.
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Post by kman22 on Jul 24, 2022 15:31:26 GMT -5
Another important clarification: Nick Punto was the centerpiece that went to the Dodgers to convince them to take Gonzalez, Crawford, and Beckett. The deal would have been highway robbery if the Red Sox got a player of that caliber on top of the bundle of prospects and financial freedom.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 24, 2022 15:37:50 GMT -5
Auugh! Sorry bout that folks! Thanks Soxin8!
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Post by Guidas on Jul 24, 2022 15:47:11 GMT -5
Another important clarification: Nick Punto was the centerpiece that went to the Dodgers to convince them to take Gonzalez, Crawford, and Beckett. The deal would have been highway robbery if the Red Sox got a player of that caliber on top of the bundle of prospects and financial freedom. Also, sorry. They also sent $11M to LAD. As for the "bundle of prospects," they were James Loney 1.0fWAR after the deal Allen Webster -1.3 fWAR, Ivan De Jesus -0.4 fWAR, Rubby De La Rosa 1.2 fWAR and the immortal Jerry Sands -0.4 fWAR after the deal. So yes, a pure salary dump and Dodger's dreck in return.
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Post by manfred on Jul 24, 2022 15:55:32 GMT -5
Another important clarification: Nick Punto was the centerpiece that went to the Dodgers to convince them to take Gonzalez, Crawford, and Beckett. The deal would have been highway robbery if the Red Sox got a player of that caliber on top of the bundle of prospects and financial freedom. Also, sorry. They also sent $11M to LAD. As for the "bundle of prospects," they were James Loney 1.0fWAR after the deal Allen Webster -1.3 fWAR, Ivan De Jesus -0.4 fWAR, Rubby De La Rosa 1.2 fWAR and the immortal Jerry Sands -0.4 fWAR after the deal. So yes, a pure salary dump and Dodger's dreck in return. Ugh. I get weepy thinking of Webster and Rubby. Those arms!! How did it go wrong?
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Post by incandenza on Jul 24, 2022 16:05:27 GMT -5
Why are we pining to resign Kiké after he is going to essentially miss a whole year with a hip injury that it appears itâs quite possible that neither he nor the medical team have any handle on? Recency bias for a player who had a career year. Also, Chaim seemed to have bet on everyone last year who had career years or near-career years repeating those performances, which is diametrically opposed to the approach he's said to be a proponent of (i.e, primarily stats-driven). Base rates are base rates for all but developing players, and even then, they are nearly predictive. Kiké is a low OBP, low wRC+ utility guy who played out of his mind last year and had his best WAR year at age 29 (4.0 fWAR). The chance that such a performance would've been repeated was extremely low. In fact, before last year, Kiké had only had an fWAR above 1.5 in a full season once in his entire career (fWAR 3.1), and that was in his age 26 season. Bloom had every reason to expect that Kiké would regress significantly back much closer to those base rates, while perhaps hoping not quite as low. It became an outlier good 2-year contract and would've been very good if he could've just put up a 2.0 fWAR season this year (which would be above his previous base rates). But even if he comes back and plays out of his mind again for 6-8 weeks, the Red Sox should let him go after this year (the way they originally did for JBJ). Another important clarification: Nick Punto was the centerpiece that went to the Dodgers to convince them to take Gonzalez, Crawford, and Beckett. The deal would have been highway robbery if the Red Sox got a player of that caliber on top of the bundle of prospects and financial freedom. Also, sorry. They also sent $11M to LAD. As for the "bundle of prospects," they were James Loney 1.0fWAR after the deal Allen Webster -1.3 fWAR, Ivan De Jesus -0.4 fWAR, Rubby De La Rosa 1.2 fWAR and the immortal Jerry Sands -0.4 fWAR after the deal. So yes, a pure salary dump and Dodger's dreck in return. Webster and De La Rosa were real prospects at the time. Both of them were in the top 5 of the Red Sox system, ahead of the likes of Iglesias, Vazquez, Margot, Owens, Barnes, and Mookie Betts.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 24, 2022 16:39:35 GMT -5
I think we can expect trade chatter to pick up tremendously this week. I'd expect Xander could be moved soon.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 24, 2022 16:40:02 GMT -5
Also, sorry. They also sent $11M to LAD. As for the "bundle of prospects," they were James Loney 1.0fWAR after the deal Allen Webster -1.3 fWAR, Ivan De Jesus -0.4 fWAR, Rubby De La Rosa 1.2 fWAR and the immortal Jerry Sands -0.4 fWAR after the deal. So yes, a pure salary dump and Dodger's dreck in return. Ugh. I get weepy thinking of Webster and Rubby. Those arms!! How did it go wrong? I "met" (handshake, autograph on a jersey) Webster at a pre-season dinner for D-Backs AAA season ticket holders and I'm here to tell you that with him it wasn't his arm, it was who was on it. His girlfriend was probably the single most beautiful human being I think I've ever seen, whether in person or on film.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 24, 2022 16:42:00 GMT -5
I think we can expect trade chatter to pick up tremendously this week. I'd expect Xander could be moved soon. Unless @carl4 is pulling our legs, Xander has a full no-trade clause and I doubt he wants to pick up sticks for a couple months. If he gets traded, it would seem to be a pretty good indication he's not coming back afterwards.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 24, 2022 16:46:24 GMT -5
Recency bias for a player who had a career year. Also, Chaim seemed to have bet on everyone last year who had career years or near-career years repeating those performances, which is diametrically opposed to the approach he's said to be a proponent of (i.e, primarily stats-driven). Base rates are base rates for all but developing players, and even then, they are nearly predictive. Kiké is a low OBP, low wRC+ utility guy who played out of his mind last year and had his best WAR year at age 29 (4.0 fWAR). The chance that such a performance would've been repeated was extremely low. In fact, before last year, Kiké had only had an fWAR above 1.5 in a full season once in his entire career (fWAR 3.1), and that was in his age 26 season. Bloom had every reason to expect that Kiké would regress significantly back much closer to those base rates, while perhaps hoping not quite as low. It became an outlier good 2-year contract and would've been very good if he could've just put up a 2.0 fWAR season this year (which would be above his previous base rates). But even if he comes back and plays out of his mind again for 6-8 weeks, the Red Sox should let him go after this year (the way they originally did for JBJ). Also, sorry. They also sent $11M to LAD. As for the "bundle of prospects," they were James Loney 1.0fWAR after the deal Allen Webster -1.3 fWAR, Ivan De Jesus -0.4 fWAR, Rubby De La Rosa 1.2 fWAR and the immortal Jerry Sands -0.4 fWAR after the deal. So yes, a pure salary dump and Dodger's dreck in return. Webster and De La Rosa were real prospects at the time. Both of them were in the top 5 of the Red Sox system, ahead of the likes of Iglesias, Vazquez, Margot, Owens, Barnes, and Mookie Betts. De La Rosa was intriguing, but I saw Webster live twice and saw enough to know he was fool's gold. I said as much here at the time and was roundly ripped. That said, perception at the time is reality and, ultimately how the Sox ended up getting Schilling and Sale. But current perception goes to the oft-repeated (but, at least, here) oft-ignored point that, no matter their system or MLB rankings, only about 25-30% of top prospects ever become average MLB players or better. GMs get paid to figure out which ones those are (and are not) and to trade high on the hype.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 24, 2022 16:52:01 GMT -5
I think we can expect trade chatter to pick up tremendously this week. I'd expect Xander could be moved soon. Unless @carl4 is pulling our legs, Xander has a full no-trade clause and I doubt he wants to pick up sticks for a couple months. If he gets traded, it would seem to be a pretty good indication he's not coming back afterwards. I'd bet the Red Sox have previously approached Xander about a trade before the season and have gathered a list of teams that he'd accept a move (with receiving team willing to pay Xander what he wants). Cardinals have made the most sense and I can see this happening quickly.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 24, 2022 17:07:30 GMT -5
So which teams are in the DH market?
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 24, 2022 17:30:39 GMT -5
Am I the only one pretty excited to see a fire sale?
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 24, 2022 17:33:46 GMT -5
Am I the only one pretty excited to see a fire sale? Nope, it's gonna be a lot of fun speculating about prospects and then hitting refresh waiting for the deals, and then arguing about the returns, and then getting to see them play on the minor league streams for the first time.
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Post by fisk75 on Jul 24, 2022 17:35:36 GMT -5
If there is a fire sale, I have one request. I do not want minor league depth. For example instead of acquiring a team's #11 and #17 prospect, just give me their #8.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Jul 24, 2022 17:56:24 GMT -5
Am I the only one pretty excited to see a fire sale? Nope, it's gonna be a lot of fun speculating about prospects and then hitting refresh waiting for the deals, and then arguing about the returns, and then getting to see them play on the minor league streams for the first time. U mean a 98 page thread about the xander trade that is discussed till 2027?
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