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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 18, 2022 13:07:42 GMT -5
My argument for buying is that you're still in it and you have some really useful pieces this season, like Bogaerts, Eovaldi, Wacha, Hill, JDM, Vazquez, Kique; who aren't guaranteed to be back next year, so make hay with them now.
My second argument for buying is that if you don't, you're pretty much kissing Bogie and Raffy goodbye by telling them that any year the team isn't less than two games out at the ASB, we're sellers. Hardly the "chance to win it every year" ethos that attracts/retains big free agents...
My third argument for buying is that even if you do and you don't win, you've already got a really nice farm system that sets a solid foundation for 2023 with starters Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock, Houck, Winck, Crawford, Bello, with Mata and maybe Groome, Walter, Murphy later; and a bullpen that could include Whitlock, Houck and possibly other excess starters, along with Schreiber, Ort, Taylor, with Kelly, Bazardo, German and others in the wings (there will need to be more additions from outside, clearly, like maybe a real closer if one is available). The lineup has the obvious holes at 1B, RF, with help needed elsewhere but it is still 7th in R/G and there will be a lot of money coming off the books (Price, JDM, Eovaldi, Kique being the biggest tickets) that can buy a bat or two, with Casas, Duran, Wong, and Downs possible contributors, assuming continued development.
The argument for selling is that you don't believe in the team, in which case you need to change a lot more than just selling the guys with expiring contracts because they're only a small fraction of this team that you don't believe in, so it's an overhaul that will be overseen by the guy who built the team that you don't believe in. Pretty depressing place to be, which is part of the reason I don't want to go there.
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Post by theburn on Jul 18, 2022 13:12:22 GMT -5
I guess the best way is to explain your current predicament, explain how this helps in 2023 and give Devers a monster contract to help PR. I don’t think a big sell can help in 2023. They won’t get an equal return of major-league ready guys. I keep getting stuck on this 'equal return' thing. I'm thinking most about Eovaldi and Martinez and I wouldn't like to see them walk at the end of the year for nothing. Even if we can't get an equal return, wouldn't you rather get something over nothing? This is starting to feel like 2014, when they basically traded their entire starting rotation. Although the '14 team was six games worse than this current team but the last couple weeks have been terrible and things are clearly trending in the wrong direction. If the FO doesn't believe this team can compete, why not at least sell Eovaldi and Martinez?
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Post by theburn on Jul 18, 2022 13:21:30 GMT -5
My argument for buying is that you're still in it and you have some really useful pieces this season, like Bogaerts, Eovaldi, Wacha, Hill, JDM, Vazquez, Kique; who aren't guaranteed to be back next year, so make hay with them now. My second argument for buying is that if you don't, you're pretty much kissing Bogie and Raffy goodbye by telling them that any year the team isn't less than two games out at the ASB, we're sellers. Hardly the "chance to win it every year" ethos that attracts/retains big free agents... My third argument for buying is that even if you do and you don't win, you've already got a really nice farm system that sets a solid foundation for 2023 with starters Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock, Houck, Winck, Crawford, Bello, with Mata and maybe Groome, Walter, Murphy later; and a bullpen that could include Whitlock, Houck and possibly other excess starters, along with Schreiber, Ort, Taylor, with Kelly, Bazardo, German and others in the wings (there will need to be more additions from outside, clearly, like maybe a real closer if one is available). The lineup has the obvious holes at 1B, RF, with help needed elsewhere but it is still 7th in R/G and there will be a lot of money coming off the books (Price, JDM, Eovaldi, Kique being the biggest tickets) that can buy a bat or two, with Casas, Duran, Wong, and Downs possible contributors, assuming continued development. The argument for selling is that you don't believe in the team, in which case you need to change a lot more than just selling the guys with expiring contracts because they're only a small fraction of this team that you don't believe in, so it's an overhaul that will be overseen by the guy who built the team that you don't believe in. Pretty depressing place to be, which is part of the reason I don't want to go there. I hate to be here, but I keep hearing my dad's voice in my head whenever we talked about the team pre-2004: "Son, they're just not that good." Count me in the "I don't believe in the team" camp.
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Post by manfred on Jul 18, 2022 13:52:42 GMT -5
I don’t think a big sell can help in 2023. They won’t get an equal return of major-league ready guys. I keep getting stuck on this 'equal return' thing. I'm thinking most about Eovaldi and Martinez and I wouldn't like to see them walk at the end of the year for nothing. Even if we can't get an equal return, wouldn't you rather get something over nothing? This is starting to feel like 2014, when they basically traded their entire starting rotation. Although the '14 team was six games worse than this current team but the last couple weeks have been terrible and things are clearly trending in the wrong direction. If the FO doesn't believe this team can compete, why not at least sell Eovaldi and Martinez? I said equal return of major-league ready guys. That is, if you trade X, JDM, Eovaldi, and anyone else, it is hard to imagine those losses being balanced enough to compete next year. You might get good value in the minors, but that value wouldn’t materialize immediately. This was part of my point about communicating this to the fan base: a couple games out, you’d be pulling the plug on this year and next year. Now, tough choices have to be made. I just think the *appearance* of an early surrender would be brutal.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 18, 2022 13:54:19 GMT -5
I keep getting stuck on this 'equal return' thing. I'm thinking most about Eovaldi and Martinez and I wouldn't like to see them walk at the end of the year for nothing. Even if we can't get an equal return, wouldn't you rather get something over nothing? This is starting to feel like 2014, when they basically traded their entire starting rotation. Although the '14 team was six games worse than this current team but the last couple weeks have been terrible and things are clearly trending in the wrong direction. If the FO doesn't believe this team can compete, why not at least sell Eovaldi and Martinez? I said equal return of major-league ready guys. That is, if you trade X, JDM, Eovaldi, and anyone else, it is hard to imagine those losses being balanced enough to compete next year. You might get good value in the minors, but that value wouldn’t materialize immediately. This was part of my point about communicating this to the fan base: a couple games out, you’d be pulling the plug on this year and next year. Now, tough choices have to be made. I just think the *appearance* of an early surrender would be brutal. Why do you think you can get equal talent when you're giving up 2 months of control of these guys?
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Post by manfred on Jul 18, 2022 14:34:25 GMT -5
I said equal return of major-league ready guys. That is, if you trade X, JDM, Eovaldi, and anyone else, it is hard to imagine those losses being balanced enough to compete next year. You might get good value in the minors, but that value wouldn’t materialize immediately. This was part of my point about communicating this to the fan base: a couple games out, you’d be pulling the plug on this year and next year. Now, tough choices have to be made. I just think the *appearance* of an early surrender would be brutal. Why do you think you can get equal talent when you're giving up 2 months of control of these guys? I don’t but once you start getting into questions something or nothing etc, I just shrug. I don’t know what they’d get, but I don’t think it would be advanced guys of much value. The best case is lottery picks with one paying off in a few years.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 18, 2022 14:38:11 GMT -5
The trade deadline sellers last year got back stupidly strong packages. This year it looks like demand will be even or higher, and supply will be lower.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 18, 2022 14:40:25 GMT -5
My argument for buying is that you're still in it and you have some really useful pieces this season, like Bogaerts, Eovaldi, Wacha, Hill, JDM, Vazquez, Kique; who aren't guaranteed to be back next year, so make hay with them now. My second argument for buying is that if you don't, you're pretty much kissing Bogie and Raffy goodbye by telling them that any year the team isn't less than two games out at the ASB, we're sellers. Hardly the "chance to win it every year" ethos that attracts/retains big free agents... My third argument for buying is that even if you do and you don't win, you've already got a really nice farm system that sets a solid foundation for 2023 with starters Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock, Houck, Winck, Crawford, Bello, with Mata and maybe Groome, Walter, Murphy later; and a bullpen that could include Whitlock, Houck and possibly other excess starters, along with Schreiber, Ort, Taylor, with Kelly, Bazardo, German and others in the wings (there will need to be more additions from outside, clearly, like maybe a real closer if one is available). The lineup has the obvious holes at 1B, RF, with help needed elsewhere but it is still 7th in R/G and there will be a lot of money coming off the books (Price, JDM, Eovaldi, Kique being the biggest tickets) that can buy a bat or two, with Casas, Duran, Wong, and Downs possible contributors, assuming continued development. The argument for selling is that you don't believe in the team, in which case you need to change a lot more than just selling the guys with expiring contracts because they're only a small fraction of this team that you don't believe in, so it's an overhaul that will be overseen by the guy who built the team that you don't believe in. Pretty depressing place to be, which is part of the reason I don't want to go there. I'm down with buying. Find a bat in a position of need, if not two, a reliable (do they exist?) bullpen arm, and maybe even take a run at Luis Castillo. But hold on to Casas, Mayer and Rafaella - and only deal Bello or Mata if it gets you Castillo back. And extend Rafi before the All Star Break is over, ffs.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 18, 2022 14:41:33 GMT -5
My argument for buying is that you're still in it and you have some really useful pieces this season, like Bogaerts, Eovaldi, Wacha, Hill, JDM, Vazquez, Kique; who aren't guaranteed to be back next year, so make hay with them now. My second argument for buying is that if you don't, you're pretty much kissing Bogie and Raffy goodbye by telling them that any year the team isn't less than two games out at the ASB, we're sellers. Hardly the "chance to win it every year" ethos that attracts/retains big free agents... My third argument for buying is that even if you do and you don't win, you've already got a really nice farm system that sets a solid foundation for 2023 with starters Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock, Houck, Winck, Crawford, Bello, with Mata and maybe Groome, Walter, Murphy later; and a bullpen that could include Whitlock, Houck and possibly other excess starters, along with Schreiber, Ort, Taylor, with Kelly, Bazardo, German and others in the wings (there will need to be more additions from outside, clearly, like maybe a real closer if one is available). The lineup has the obvious holes at 1B, RF, with help needed elsewhere but it is still 7th in R/G and there will be a lot of money coming off the books (Price, JDM, Eovaldi, Kique being the biggest tickets) that can buy a bat or two, with Casas, Duran, Wong, and Downs possible contributors, assuming continued development. The argument for selling is that you don't believe in the team, in which case you need to change a lot more than just selling the guys with expiring contracts because they're only a small fraction of this team that you don't believe in, so it's an overhaul that will be overseen by the guy who built the team that you don't believe in. Pretty depressing place to be, which is part of the reason I don't want to go there. I hate to be here, but I keep hearing my dad's voice in my head whenever we talked about the team pre-2004: "Son, they're just not that good." Count me in the "I don't believe in the team" camp. Sorry to your Dad, but 2003 was that good, minus their manager.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 18, 2022 15:18:07 GMT -5
I said equal return of major-league ready guys. That is, if you trade X, JDM, Eovaldi, and anyone else, it is hard to imagine those losses being balanced enough to compete next year. You might get good value in the minors, but that value wouldn’t materialize immediately. This was part of my point about communicating this to the fan base: a couple games out, you’d be pulling the plug on this year and next year. Now, tough choices have to be made. I just think the *appearance* of an early surrender would be brutal. Why do you think you can get equal talent when you're giving up 2 months of control of these guys? I agree. I don't think you're getting equal value back in terms of 2023 MLB production, unless maybe it's a guy who only has that year left on his contract. And if someone already has that player, why are they trading him for yours now?
But this is also why I think you don't sell, because the existing 2023 roster is already good enough to ride with the guys who are still here for 2022, supplement them with some complementary players through deadline deals, go as far as you can, and then figure out how to fill in the blanks for 2023 after the parade.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 18, 2022 16:35:19 GMT -5
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 18, 2022 16:59:38 GMT -5
I think that translates to "they put a pin in his pinky bone that attaches to the rest of his hand."
EDIT: I wonder if that makes it a "can't damage it any further, so as long as you can stand the pain" situation...
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Post by kwodes on Jul 19, 2022 7:26:48 GMT -5
Maybe the "not buying OR selling" path would be to take someone like Heyward (contract up after 2023) from the cubs so they can get Robertson with him? Haven't done too much research, but focus on big money deals on losing teams that end after 2023 (I know, very specific) and take those on in order to add big league help? I know Votto is perfect for our roster, but he won't waive his no-trade rights.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 19, 2022 7:45:00 GMT -5
Maybe the "not buying OR selling" path would be to take someone like Heyward (contract up after 2023) from the cubs so they can get Robertson with him? Haven't done too much research, but focus on big money deals on losing teams that end after 2023 (I know, very specific) and take those on in order to add big league help? I know Votto is perfect for our roster, but he won't waive his no-trade rights. Jason Heyward is basically a JBJ that makes 22 million dollars for next yewr. No thanks to him. Robertson shouldn't cost much more than a lotto ticket prospect or two.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 19, 2022 7:45:19 GMT -5
I think that translates to "they put a pin in his pinky bone that attaches to the rest of his hand." EDIT: I wonder if that makes it a "can't damage it any further, so as long as you can stand the pain" situation... That's what I was thinking. He'd probably have to take a few bullpens to see how his command and control are, but if he can't hurt it more, then it's all about pain tolerance.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,660
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Post by cdj on Jul 19, 2022 7:49:08 GMT -5
Those kind of injuries are usually torn ligaments. This is a broken bone with pins involved, it just strikes me as very different. I imagine they want the bone to heal a certain way and that pitching may impact that healing process
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Post by costpet on Jul 19, 2022 7:54:04 GMT -5
I think Bloom is thinking, if we do well in the next 2 weeks and have a good chance to get into the playoffs, he might try to grab a couple of good relievers and see what happens. But, if we keep losing, then it's SELL TIME. So, it's wait and watch.
Even if he trades Boggy, he can always sign him again in the off season.
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Post by theburn on Jul 19, 2022 9:11:59 GMT -5
I think Bloom is thinking, if we do well in the next 2 weeks and have a good chance to get into the playoffs, he might try to grab a couple of good relievers and see what happens. But, if we keep losing, then it's SELL TIME. So, it's wait and watch. Even if he trades Boggy, he can always sign him again in the off season. More shades of 2014 here when many people were saying the same thing about Lester. I think the Bogaerts ship has already sailed, especially if he's dealt at the deadline.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 19, 2022 9:14:47 GMT -5
Baseball teams can always use more pitching so yes grab a bullpen arm, not sure they need two. However this team is dead in the water with their hitters outside of rafi,X, jd and to a lesser extent story. They need to go get at least 2 hitters for me to feel any sort of optimistic way about their post season chances.
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Post by jdb on Jul 19, 2022 9:16:33 GMT -5
A guy I think Bloom targets by the offseason is Ha-Seong Kim. Assuming Tatis comes back SD has a glut of middle infielders with Croneworth and also CJ Adams I can’t see them paying a utility guy $7M.
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Post by stevedillard on Jul 19, 2022 9:19:22 GMT -5
Jason Heyward is basically a JBJ that makes 22 million dollars for next yewr. So, you're saying he's super attractive to Chaim? [/salty snark] Edit: We need an offense first 1B. Surely there are several Moreland's out there for rental. The beauty of 1b/RF is that anyone will be a marginal improvement, so the cost of rental does not detract from the overall growth plan.
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Jul 19, 2022 9:30:25 GMT -5
A guy I think Bloom targets by the offseason is Ha-Seong Kim. Assuming Tatis comes back SD has a glut of middle infielders with Croneworth and also CJ Adams I can’t see them paying a utility guy $7M. I can see it this deadline. If Boston goes the sell/buy route I could see Chaim absorbing contracts to facilitate moves with buyers who don't want to exceed the first threshold. San Diego is near the $230 million threshold and would likely need creative trades to avoid if they buy at the deadline.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 19, 2022 9:42:58 GMT -5
I tried figuring who could be good targets for the OF on the teams that clearly will be selling. I came up with basically David Peralta so going to be slim pickings there.
Maybe Bloom gets creative and gets an OF with some control left beyond this season because they're going to need at least one if not two of those anyway. If he goes that avenue I wouldn't mind seeing him take a run at Ramon laureano. He's not a superstar by any means but I feel he'd be a good RF and better than anyone in free agency or currently in the upper minors. I'm sure he wouldn't be particularly cheap though with 2 years of team control left after this season and the As are never the easiest to deal with. Still feels like one way or another Bloom is going to need to trade off some prospects to bolster this roster for the coming seasons.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jul 19, 2022 9:51:26 GMT -5
Almost Conforto time. Sign him to a future deal the second the draft ends
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 19, 2022 9:53:51 GMT -5
Almost Conforto time. Sign him to a future deal the second the draft ends It's an interesting idea, 2 year deal with a team option for a 3rd or something. Not sure he'd take that though. Even signing him for the remainder of year through next might be worth it too. I could see Bloom being interested in that.
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