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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 17, 2022 20:27:30 GMT -5
Stats has been all over this on twitter, but I think the recent skid allows the Sox to thread the needle on "extending the window", which would've been harder to do if they were a surefire playoff team. Example would be something like JD to the Mets, Mets/Sox prospects to the Pirates, Reynolds to the Sox. Maybe if they win a bunch out of the break they'll look at pure rentals too, but I can't imagine they are just pure sellers
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 17, 2022 21:11:55 GMT -5
The notion that many of you decided this team is a seller based off an injury to a guy that hasn’t been healthy in 4 years is very LOL Sales injury shouldn’t really impact your calculus that much. I was pleasantly surprised last week and thought his impact may have been understated after his performance, but that’s because I viewed his potential impact as negligible given a total inability to stay healthy IMO, the posts about “selling” has more to do with the Red Sox inability to beat AL East teams (which are a huge chunk of the remaining schedule) than the injury to Sale. The first half of 2022 the Red Sox had three strong hitters (Devers, X, JD), but now they have just Devers hitting consistently. Unless the Red Sox add two consistently productive bats, they simply do not have the offense to make the playoffs and ADVANCE. I would rather see what Downs, Duran, Casas, and some of the other MILB Red Sox can do along with more of the pitchers than watch the Red Sox lose in the 9th inning as a Wild Card team (or get totally blown out).
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 17, 2022 21:13:06 GMT -5
The notion that many of you decided this team is a seller based off an injury to a guy that hasn’t been healthy in 4 years is very LOL Sales injury shouldn’t really impact your calculus that much. I was pleasantly surprised last week and thought his impact may have been understated after his performance, but that’s because I viewed his potential impact as negligible given a total inability to stay healthy IMO, the posts about “selling” has more to do with the Red Sox inability to beat AL East teams (which are a huge Chuck of the remaining schedule) than the injury to Sale. The first half of 2022 the Red Sox had three strong hitters (Devers, X, JD), but now they have just Devers hitting consistently. Unless the Red Sox add two consistently productive bats, they simply do not have the offense to make the playoffs and ADVANCE. I would rather see what Downs, Duran, Casas, and some of the other MILB Red Sox can do along with more of the pitchers than watch the Red Sox lose in the 9th inning as a Wild Card team (or get totally blown out). I’d be more inclined to believe it if so many ppl didn’t specifically mention Sale’s injury when saying they should sell I do think the opinion they should sell is a valid one to have though, I understand the logic
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jul 17, 2022 21:16:35 GMT -5
I mean… let’s say it is the old days with 4 playoff teams, and the Sox were 2 games out. Would people be screaming sell, or psyched to be chasing the Yankees?
Now we are in a situation where we have to catch the Mariners… the MARINERS!!! — and people are ready to quit?
What are you selling for? You dump everyone, and you will not be this close again next year, probably not the year after. So two games out , people want to play for 2024 or 2025?
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 17, 2022 22:10:33 GMT -5
I mean… let’s say it is the old days with 4 playoff teams, and the Sox were 2 games out. Would people be screaming sell, or psyched to be chasing the Yankees? Now we are in a situation where we have to catch the Mariners… the MARINERS!!! — and people are ready to quit? What are you selling for? You dump everyone, and you will not be this close again next year, probably not the year after. So two games out , people want to play for 2024 or 2025? I want them to be selective buyers myself. Wouldn’t give significant assets for a rental, but if there’s a deal to be made that betters the team both now and going forward go for it. I like the Cooper idea some have had because he plays 1B and RF I understand why some want to sell. I personally don’t think we’re there yet.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 18, 2022 7:07:20 GMT -5
I mean… let’s say it is the old days with 4 playoff teams, and the Sox were 2 games out. Would people be screaming sell, or psyched to be chasing the Yankees? Now we are in a situation where we have to catch the Mariners… the MARINERS!!! — and people are ready to quit? What are you selling for? You dump everyone, and you will not be this close again next year, probably not the year after. So two games out , people want to play for 2024 or 2025? I want them to be selective buyers myself. Wouldn’t give significant assets for a rental, but if there’s a deal to be made that betters the team both now and going forward go for it. I like the Cooper idea some have had because he plays 1B and RF I understand why some want to sell. I personally don’t think we’re there yet. Agree. Go get some pieces and make the run.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 18, 2022 7:13:14 GMT -5
I mean… let’s say it is the old days with 4 playoff teams, and the Sox were 2 games out. Would people be screaming sell, or psyched to be chasing the Yankees? Now we are in a situation where we have to catch the Mariners… the MARINERS!!! — and people are ready to quit? What are you selling for? You dump everyone, and you will not be this close again next year, probably not the year after. So two games out , people want to play for 2024 or 2025? Honestly, its because Boston has excellent assets that they have zero interest in retaining. So do you let 4 or 5 guys walk for nothing or do you just get something for them and then focus on maybe trying to sign players in the offseason to short term deals to replace them. Letting Xander go for nothing is inexcusable. Im really not sure why the Sox are taking the route they are with him and Devers.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 18, 2022 8:40:47 GMT -5
I'm coming more and more to the conclusion that even though it's certainly possible the Sox could snag a 3rd wild card spot and could actually knock off the AL Central Champs in the Wld Card round, it seems to me that without a Chris Sale at the top of his game, the low likelihood that Bello is ready to be one of four post-season starters, the continuing bullpen issues, the lackluster lineup, and mediocre team defense, and their total inability to beat anybody in the AL East, they wouldn't have much shot at knocking off Houston in the ALDS, let alone beating an AL East team in the ALCS - I mean the Yankees stomped the Sox 27-3 the last two days - there is a gap between the two teams even with the 4-6 record against them, the Red Sox have to take a dual tact.
Bloom has to see what he can get for X, Devers, JDM, Eovaldi, Vazquez, and even Hernandez, Wacha, and Hill who are injured.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that if he can get something substantial for these players he'd be derelict in duty not to do it. I don't think that maybe winning one round and taking a 3rd wild card, if they do, is worth losing these players for nothing.
With Devers, he might have to wait until the offseason to trade him, assuming that they're not going to give Devers the 325 plus million that he'll command on the open market.
OTOH, if they're not getting anything significant then maybe they make small moves to improve the very flawed team, try to get the 3rd wild card and hope for the best and then let everybody walk, trade Devers, and hope that the money they do spend to replace the players lost is well spent (which I'm kind of doubtful on).
I think the most sensible scenario at this point is to break the team up if they're not going to be able to put together a roster that can reasonably be capable of winning at least 2 post-season series. I think that if their likelihood of "doing damage" in the post-season is low because they won't be able to put together a roster that plugs most of their holes and can beat good teams, then they need to get something for their assets.
My sense about this team is that it's just flat out not their year. They give away a lot more games than they steal away. The injuries are piling up and I'm not sure that's going to stop. There's always the "just wait until we get all these guys back" mentality but the way this season is going when they'd get some back, they'd lose other key players just as easily. I don't think this season is meant to be quite honestly. The "next great Red Sox team" is going to look quite different than the team that currently plays no the field looks and I think it's probably a few years away so if they can add pieces to that future team, then they probably need to do it.
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Post by costpet on Jul 18, 2022 9:15:09 GMT -5
The Sox are just a .500 team this year and, with the loss of so many key pieces next year, there's not a lot of hope in the near future. With all those contracts expiring at the end of the year, they'll have plenty of money to do whatever they want...like sign some good players.
I do think they have to retain Devers at whatever he wants. They screwed up on the Mookie deal. They can't do that again and retain any credibility. Devers is a potential HOFer. Letting him so elsewhere would be a crime. The SOX used to overspend all the time. Now they're being cheap. I would love to see Henry sell the team. Maybe if the SOX are so bad next year he loses money, then sells. The SOX are so important to the New England region, maybe even defining it, it would be a shame to let it be reduced to a run of the mill team. That's where it's headed. Reality sucks. And I'm depressed.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 18, 2022 9:15:56 GMT -5
IMO, the posts about “selling” has more to do with the Red Sox inability to beat AL East teams (which are a huge Chuck of the remaining schedule) than the injury to Sale. The first half of 2022 the Red Sox had three strong hitters (Devers, X, JD), but now they have just Devers hitting consistently. Unless the Red Sox add two consistently productive bats, they simply do not have the offense to make the playoffs and ADVANCE. I would rather see what Downs, Duran, Casas, and some of the other MILB Red Sox can do along with more of the pitchers than watch the Red Sox lose in the 9th inning as a Wild Card team (or get totally blown out). I’d be more inclined to believe it if so many ppl didn’t specifically mention Sale’s injury when saying they should sell I do think the opinion they should sell is a valid one to have though, I understand the logic I think Sale was the final straw for many people. I think people had the hopes that he could come back and be a shot in the arm and lockdown the rotation. A healthy Sale/Eovaldi was your best chance in October with a mostly inept offense and crummy bullpen. If you have 2 Cy Young caliber starters anchoring your rotation then you have a chance to beat anyone. For me, Sale was the last hope this team had and now that he's likely done for the season, that last thread is gone. I personally have wanted them to sell regardless, but I get why Sale is the tipping point. You went from slim to nil.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 18, 2022 11:23:32 GMT -5
Nothing is ever black and white, but this year everything is grey. I don’t envy Bloom. Big decisions to make through low visibility.
It’s interesting to read everyone’s opinion, because you quickly get a sense of how wide the spectrum is.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 18, 2022 11:35:17 GMT -5
I’d be more inclined to believe it if so many ppl didn’t specifically mention Sale’s injury when saying they should sell I do think the opinion they should sell is a valid one to have though, I understand the logic I think Sale was the final straw for many people. I think people had the hopes that he could come back and be a shot in the arm and lockdown the rotation. A healthy Sale/Eovaldi was your best chance in October with a mostly inept offense and crummy bullpen. If you have 2 Cy Young caliber starters anchoring your rotation then you have a chance to beat anyone. For me, Sale was the last hope this team had and now that he's likely done for the season, that last thread is gone. I personally have wanted them to sell regardless, but I get why Sale is the tipping point. You went from slim to nil. Yeah, to be honest the team's hopes seem considerably dimmer to me without Sale. The logic all along has been that despite their weaknesses they'd be built to have a good enough 4-man rotation to be dangerous in the playoffs. But if Sale isn't a part of that picture, you're starting with Eovaldi (contra his reputation, more like a 2/3 starter), and then... Pivetta? Wacha? Paxton? Anything can happen in the playoffs, but the dice start out loaded pretty heavily against them compared with any of the teams they'd be going up against when their playoff rotation looks like that.
I wouldn't go all the way to their chances being "nil," but my official position has shifted from "of course they shouldn't sell" to "ummm let's see how these next three series go."
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 18, 2022 11:43:02 GMT -5
Do we know any more about the extent of the break for Sale? I'm seeing out 4-6 weeks, so in my mind him being in a playoff rotation is not yet written out, and therefore this changes pretty much nothing. They were a wildcard team with or without him for the regular season, it's all about where he's at in the playoffs. If he's back in August that's still enough time to get back into a playoff rotation I think.
My current deadline guess is the team does some mix of buying and selling in an attempt to keep this season's odds relatively neutral while setting up better for the long term, much to the chagrin of 60% of this board.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 18, 2022 11:49:50 GMT -5
Do we know any more about the extent of the break for Sale? I'm seeing out 4-6 weeks, so in my mind him being in a playoff rotation is not yet written out, and therefore this changes pretty much nothing. I mean, trading 8 Sale starts for 8 Winckowski starts, or whatever the exchange is, is going to cost the team probably like 1-1.5 wins on average. Turning one win into one loss is going to have a pretty significant effect on their playoff odds at this point.
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 18, 2022 11:54:41 GMT -5
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 18, 2022 11:55:28 GMT -5
Do we know any more about the extent of the break for Sale? I'm seeing out 4-6 weeks, so in my mind him being in a playoff rotation is not yet written out, and therefore this changes pretty much nothing. I mean, trading 8 Sale starts for 8 Winckowski starts, or whatever the exchange is, is going to cost the team probably like 1-1.5 wins on average. Turning one win into one loss is going to have a pretty significant effect on their playoff odds at this point. Oh definitely reduces their odds to some extent, but what from 51% to 50%? I just don't think it's so dramatic that it should change deadline plans. My stance has been, they're likeli-ish to make it and if they make it they can be dangerous because of the potential post season rotation, and that hasn't changed at all here.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 18, 2022 12:07:07 GMT -5
I mean, trading 8 Sale starts for 8 Winckowski starts, or whatever the exchange is, is going to cost the team probably like 1-1.5 wins on average. Turning one win into one loss is going to have a pretty significant effect on their playoff odds at this point. Oh definitely reduces their odds to some extent, but what from 51% to 50%? I just don't think it's so dramatic that it should change deadline plans. My stance has been, they're likeli-ish to make it and if they make it they can be dangerous because of the potential post season rotation, and that hasn't changed at all here. For a team in the middle of July not having won a single series against any team in your own division and currently 2 games out of the playoffs, any dip in production is detrimental. They're 2 behind Toronto with a series against them coming up and then right after a 4 game set against a team who is a half game behind you.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 18, 2022 12:17:30 GMT -5
I mean, trading 8 Sale starts for 8 Winckowski starts, or whatever the exchange is, is going to cost the team probably like 1-1.5 wins on average. Turning one win into one loss is going to have a pretty significant effect on their playoff odds at this point. Oh definitely reduces their odds to some extent, but what from 51% to 50%? I just don't think it's so dramatic that it should change deadline plans. My stance has been, they're likeli-ish to make it and if they make it they can be dangerous because of the potential post season rotation, and that hasn't changed at all here. This is how I've seen it up to now, but at a certain point Sale has to be a reliable member of the starting rotation before I can believe he'll be a, you know, reliable member of the starting rotation. Obviously this finger injury is just horrible bad luck and not some indication of his being "injury-prone" or whatever, but the fact is he'll be going into, what, late August having pitched 6 innings this season, and all of 48 over the last three seasons combined. How confident can you be that he'll be on top of his game?
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jul 18, 2022 12:20:37 GMT -5
Whatever chess game we think they want to play, I can’t imagine selling when you still look good for the playoffs from a business standpoint. How do you go to the fan base, to season ticket holders, and say “we could be in a playoff race in August and September, but instead we’re selling so we can create depth in our minors. Enjoy the WooSox try-outs in the second half!”?
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 18, 2022 12:21:28 GMT -5
I mean, trading 8 Sale starts for 8 Winckowski starts, or whatever the exchange is, is going to cost the team probably like 1-1.5 wins on average. Turning one win into one loss is going to have a pretty significant effect on their playoff odds at this point. Oh definitely reduces their odds to some extent, but what from 51% to 50%? I just don't think it's so dramatic that it should change deadline plans. My stance has been, they're likeli-ish to make it and if they make it they can be dangerous because of the potential post season rotation, and that hasn't changed at all here. Based on watching the Fangraphs playoff odds every day, turning one win into a loss costs them like 8% I would guess
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 18, 2022 12:21:48 GMT -5
Oh definitely reduces their odds to some extent, but what from 51% to 50%? I just don't think it's so dramatic that it should change deadline plans. My stance has been, they're likeli-ish to make it and if they make it they can be dangerous because of the potential post season rotation, and that hasn't changed at all here. This is how I've seen it up to now, but at a certain point Sale has to be a reliable member of the starting rotation before I can believe he'll be a, you know, reliable member of the starting rotation. Obviously this finger injury is just horrible bad luck and not some indication of his being "injury-prone" or whatever, but the fact is he'll be going into, what, late August having pitched 6 innings this season, and all of 48 over the last three seasons combined. How confident can you be that he'll be on top of his game? If he comes back at the end of August or beginning of September, would he be able to ramp up enough to be a starter or would they have to stick him in the bullpen? As you mentioned, he had 6 innings pitched this year and 48 since 2019.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 18, 2022 12:23:13 GMT -5
Whatever chess game we think they want to play, I can’t imagine selling when you still look good for the playoffs from a business standpoint. How do you go to the fan base, to season ticket holders, and say “we could be in a playoff race in August and September, but instead we’re selling so we can create depth in our minors. Enjoy the WooSox try-outs in the second half!”? I guess the best way is to explain your current predicament, explain how this helps in 2023 and give Devers a monster contract to help PR.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 18, 2022 12:23:56 GMT -5
Oh definitely reduces their odds to some extent, but what from 51% to 50%? I just don't think it's so dramatic that it should change deadline plans. My stance has been, they're likeli-ish to make it and if they make it they can be dangerous because of the potential post season rotation, and that hasn't changed at all here. This is how I've seen it up to now, but at a certain point Sale has to be a reliable member of the starting rotation before I can believe he'll be a, you know, reliable member of the starting rotation. Obviously this finger injury is just horrible bad luck and not some indication of his being "injury-prone" or whatever, but the fact is he'll be going into, what, late August having pitched 6 innings this season, and all of 48 over the last three seasons combined. How confident can you be that he'll be on top of his game?
Can't be, I just wasn't that confident before the pinky injury, and I don't think it changes the likelihood all that much. Of course we now will have less information leading up to the deadline than we would have if he pitched a couple more games, so I can understand more trepidation about buying aggressively.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jul 18, 2022 12:38:33 GMT -5
Whatever chess game we think they want to play, I can’t imagine selling when you still look good for the playoffs from a business standpoint. How do you go to the fan base, to season ticket holders, and say “we could be in a playoff race in August and September, but instead we’re selling so we can create depth in our minors. Enjoy the WooSox try-outs in the second half!”? I guess the best way is to explain your current predicament, explain how this helps in 2023 and give Devers a monster contract to help PR. I don’t think a big sell can help in 2023. They won’t get an equal return of major-league ready guys.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 18, 2022 13:05:21 GMT -5
I guess the best way is to explain your current predicament, explain how this helps in 2023 and give Devers a monster contract to help PR. I don’t think a big sell can help in 2023. They won’t get an equal return of major-league ready guys. That's unfortunately true unless they flip prospects again in the off-season.
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