SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
7/1-7/3 Red Sox @ Cubs Series Thread
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
|
Post by ericmvan on Jul 2, 2022 12:20:23 GMT -5
Awesome, yet sobering, analysis. But then again, we spent the entire first half of the Celtics season with the same issue and that turned out fine. The optimist in me says that they are a few small parts away from fixing this rather than needing a big splash at the deadline. I actually agree completely. To begin with, the lack of clutch hitting is not predictive.
And you could well ask how, in heck did they go 31-11 (including 7-2 against contenders) in that awesome stretch without ever coming back from a significant deficit? While looking at the Win Probability graph at Fangraphs of every game I noticed that they had done really well when games were close (within 1 run or tied) after 6 innings. They scored runs and the front-line relievers pitched well.
Robles has the 11th highest average Leverage when starting an inning (inLi) of any qualified reliever at Fangraphs. He also has the third worst Win Probability Added (of anyone), at -1.64. If you graphed that against inLI, he'd be by himself in a corner.
I think it very likely that the Sox are talking David Robertson and Daniel Bard (8th and 9th in leverage-adjusted WPA, all relievers with inLI > 1.0; Schreiber is 4th) as we type. I don't know how many other contenders (if any) badly need a RHR right now, and we have so much interesting prospect depth that we must have some guys we think are somewhat overrated.
I don't see a reason why one of them shouldn't be in a Sox uni for the homestand. If Barnes comes back in July and we have a surplus of good pitchers ... you can always sell someone at the deadline.
|
|
|
Post by blizzards39 on Jul 2, 2022 12:20:59 GMT -5
Just read on Yahoo that Cora says Whitlock will come back as a reliever.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,204
|
Post by cdj on Jul 2, 2022 12:21:49 GMT -5
Literally zero people have done that in this thread or done that in general. OK. Just making sure. I was out of the loop for a couple days. Well it wasn’t a thing before you were out of the loop either. Stop trying to troll. You’re bad at it.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 2, 2022 12:24:22 GMT -5
I couldn’t help but notice that JBJ has his WAR all the way down to -0.5 for the season. If Cora keeps running him out there every day, I am optimistic that he can make it to -1.0 by the end of the season. Obviously JBJ hasn't been good overall, but WAR is going to understate his value this season because of the less generous positional adjustment for a RFer compared to a CFer. For the Red Sox, RF is where he happens to have the most value though, so that positional adjustment dings him even though we know he's perfectly capable of playing CF.
Of course, this is merely saying he's "actually" been closer to replacement level, rather than sub-replacement level, and fair enough if you want to criticize the roster construction.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
|
Post by ericmvan on Jul 2, 2022 12:32:47 GMT -5
Just read on Yahoo that Cora says Whitlock will come back as a reliever. As rumored a few days ago. A big vote of confidence in Winck.
Tomorrow's starter is still TBD. They're either waiting to see how Sale feels while considering skipping Sale's last rehab start, or waiting to see if Wacha is ready to go on regular rest. Maybe both.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,204
|
Post by cdj on Jul 2, 2022 12:35:00 GMT -5
Just read on Yahoo that Cora says Whitlock will come back as a reliever. As rumored a few days ago. A big vote of confidence for Winck.
Tomorrow's starter is still TBD. They're either waiting to see how Sale feels while considering skipping his last rehab start, or waiting to see if Wacha is ready to go on regular rest. Maybe both.
I believe I read it might be Seabold? I could be very wrong
|
|
|
Post by blizzards39 on Jul 2, 2022 12:49:04 GMT -5
As rumored a few days ago. A big vote of confidence for Winck.
Tomorrow's starter is still TBD. They're either waiting to see how Sale feels while considering skipping his last rehab start, or waiting to see if Wacha is ready to go on regular rest. Maybe both.
I believe I read it might be Seabold? I could be very wrong No way the skip Sale. Sox are going to be conservative. I’d say Seabold. Wink stays for now. And if Hill can’t go maybe we get to se Bello
|
|
|
Post by greenmonster on Jul 2, 2022 12:55:40 GMT -5
Has anyone seen/heard any update regarding Rich Hill? I know they said knee strain initially but that maybe understated given the mention of a "pop"
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 2, 2022 13:41:56 GMT -5
OK. Just making sure. I was out of the loop for a couple days. Well it wasn’t a thing before you were out of the loop either. Stop trying to troll. You’re bad at it. How would it even be possible for someone to blame Houck for every loss? The RS were behind 7-0 after five innings in the first game of the Toronto series. Having four Mariano Riveras in the BP wouldn't have helped in that game. + what CDJ is advising.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 2, 2022 13:42:36 GMT -5
Just read on Yahoo that Cora says Whitlock will come back as a reliever. As he should. It's always better to try and fix issues internally and a multi-inning weapon like GW (if healthy, of course) would go a long ways toward solving the BP issues.
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Jul 2, 2022 13:47:22 GMT -5
I couldn’t help but notice that JBJ has his WAR all the way down to -0.5 for the season. If Cora keeps running him out there every day, I am optimistic that he can make it to -1.0 by the end of the season. Obviously JBJ hasn't been good overall, but WAR is going to understate his value this season because of the less generous positional adjustment for a RFer compared to a CFer. For the Red Sox, RF is where he happens to have the most value though, so that positional adjustment dings him even though we know he's perfectly capable of playing CF.
Of course, this is merely saying he's "actually" been closer to replacement level, rather than sub-replacement level, and fair enough if you want to criticize the roster construction.
I pointed out over the Winter that it was very likely that JBJ was the worst full-time MLB player in the league last year(I received very little pushback on this BTW). This year, he hasn’t been quite THAT bad, but he’s not too far from the bottom again. So for those that think JBJ is close to “breaking out of a slump”, I’d like to point out that that slump dates back about 5 years now(OPS+ of 80 from 2017-22). He ain’t coming out of it. I figured Chaim could have seen that given all the charts and spreadsheets at his disposal.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 2, 2022 13:50:18 GMT -5
I am guessing that Sale coming back is probably a big reason why Whitlock will be in relief. If the injured starters all make it back, that is his best role for the team
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 2, 2022 13:51:51 GMT -5
Will be away tonight celebrating the 4th of July with assorted libations on the menu.
Come on boys, win one for the nip'r !
Have a good night !
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Jul 2, 2022 13:58:23 GMT -5
I am guessing that Sale coming back is probably a big reason why Whitlock will be in relief. If the injured starters all make it back, that is his best role for the team Eovaldi supposedly getting close, too. They have REALLY missed him.
|
|
|
Post by blizzards39 on Jul 2, 2022 14:26:15 GMT -5
I think between hill, Wink and maybe Seabold we can fill the 5/6 and spot starts. It’s looking like Whitlock in relief and I’d like to see Bello (for jurist remainder of year) also in relief. That gives you Pivette Eovoldi Wacha Sale Hill/Wink/Seabold/Paxton/ Walter
RH Houck Whitlock Schreiber Bello Maybe Sawamura or Braiser or Danish or Barnes. But id rather a longer innings guy/6 starter type
LH Strahm Maybe Tayler Deikamn / Davis
Obviously there is going to be some moving parts but lots of options is the key. If the FO is going to look outside the organization I think I’d rather push for RF or 1B help.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Jul 2, 2022 16:38:38 GMT -5
Awesome, yet sobering, analysis. But then again, we spent the entire first half of the Celtics season with the same issue and that turned out fine. The optimist in me says that they are a few small parts away from fixing this rather than needing a big splash at the deadline. Agree with this. I would be all for throwing Bello and Seabold in the pen to see how their plays now an inning at a time before giving up any assets on July 31.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Jul 2, 2022 16:42:09 GMT -5
Just read on Yahoo that Cora says Whitlock will come back as a reliever. As rumored a few days ago. A big vote of confidence in Winck.
Tomorrow's starter is still TBD. They're either waiting to see how Sale feels while considering skipping Sale's last rehab start, or waiting to see if Wacha is ready to go on regular rest. Maybe both.
I would be all for this, too. Bring Sale up and let him rip for 4-5 innings. If he’s feeling strong, why waste pitches in the minors?
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
|
Post by ericmvan on Jul 2, 2022 16:49:56 GMT -5
I believe I read it might be Seabold? I could be very wrong No way the skip Sale. Sox are going to be conservative. I’d say Seabold. Wink stays for now. And if Hill can’t go maybe we get to se Bello Both the Sox official site and ESPN have TBD. Another possible reason they're waiting is that they're thinking of a bullpen game if they don't use it much tonight. Pivetta goes on Monday and he's averaged 7 IP a start over his last 4 games and 6.2 over his last 9.
ESPN has Wacha for game 1 but they're just guessing because he hasn't been named yet for tomorrow. If they give Pivetta an extra day now, he's pitching the same day as Sale. But maybe they do want to give him extra rest ....
Rays Wacha 5
Pivetta 5 Hill (?) or Sale 5
Yankees Winkowsi
TBD or Hill 6
Wacha Sale or Pivetta
Rays Pivetta 5 or Sale
The version in italics isn't bad.
Re Sale, he's going to pitch 5 innings in either AAA or MLB. If you trust him not to do too much, there's nothing to be conservative about. All he has to do to make it worthwhile is be better than Seabold or whoever else.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
|
Post by ericmvan on Jul 2, 2022 16:59:57 GMT -5
As rumored a few days ago. A big vote of confidence in Winck.
Tomorrow's starter is still TBD. They're either waiting to see how Sale feels while considering skipping Sale's last rehab start, or waiting to see if Wacha is ready to go on regular rest. Maybe both.
I would be all for this, too. Bring Sale up and let him rip for 4-5 innings. If he’s feeling strong, why waste pitches in the minors? Eovaldi is out, Whitlock is coming back as a reliever, and your #7 starter Seabold may be needed to take Hill's next start, and they are playing their division rivals. No way they're wasting Sale's next start in AAA, especially since they can give him an extra day.
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 2, 2022 18:13:37 GMT -5
Good lord, the worst starter on the team hears a pop in his leg, then pitches the third time through the order the day after an offday. That is atrocious. Cora is a mess lately. I even thought during the game that Cora looked exhausted. Maybe a bad night of sleep? Fight with the wife? Head just not totally in this one? It happens...
I am rarely critical of his in-game management but he really seemed off in this one.
That's some mad speculation, bro.
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 2, 2022 18:14:54 GMT -5
Yes, this would be atrocious:
Cora [walks to mound] "How do you feel?" Hill: "I don't know, I heard something pop in my knee." Cora: "Hmm. Think you can get through the inning?" Hill: "I don't know, skip. I can definitely try." Cora: "Go get 'em, old timer!"
But I don't think that's how it went. I think if Hill had told Cora that he heard something pop in his knee, the next words out of Cora's mouth, in Spanish, to Vazquez, would've been "Rojo, put him in a half-nelson and I'll pry the ball out of his hands."
Instead, I think the conversation went something like:
Cora: "How do you feel?" Hill: "I'm fine. It was nothing, I just slipped. I got this." Cora: [in English, out of respect for Hill] "Christian, what do you think?" Vazquez: [out of respect for Hill] "He's good. He's good." Cora: "Okay. This is your last inning either way, so show me what you got. LFG!"
If I had to guess, Cora's probably a bit pissed at Hill right now.
Speculative gossip sucks Seriously, does anyone really think that Cora knew that Hill felt something pop in his knee and he left him in anyway? And now that Cora knows that Hill didn't tell him that, with guys on base and runs in, you don't think he's pissed that Hill didn't level with him and went a long way toward losing the game right there?
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 2, 2022 18:22:07 GMT -5
You hate to say it but the Cubs pitcher having to leave after two batters is actually a break for the Cubs.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Jul 2, 2022 18:23:56 GMT -5
If players are playing hurt and hiding it, and Cora can't figure it out, then that all sounds like a big old L for Cora.
By the way, the start before, we had almost the exact same scenario and again Cora stayed with Hill. He was in obvious agony holding his neck after a pitch, and Cora let him keep pitching the third time through.
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 2, 2022 18:26:36 GMT -5
As rumored a few days ago. A big vote of confidence in Winck.
Tomorrow's starter is still TBD. They're either waiting to see how Sale feels while considering skipping Sale's last rehab start, or waiting to see if Wacha is ready to go on regular rest. Maybe both.
I would be all for this, too. Bring Sale up and let him rip for 4-5 innings. If he’s feeling strong, why waste pitches in the minors? I mean, as long as there's no risk of further injury, sure. If he gets lit up in his first start, it's not going to affect him. At the same time, if he's throwing darts and wipeout sliders, it could really be a confidence springboard into the rest of the season.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,204
|
Post by cdj on Jul 2, 2022 18:52:20 GMT -5
Water is finding it’s level with Raffy’s D. 2 bad plays this inning by him. Sloppiest inning of the season perhaps
|
|
|