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7/1-7/3 Red Sox @ Cubs Series Thread
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Post by foreverred9 on Jul 1, 2022 17:45:22 GMT -5
What I just don't get is why Cora managed today as if the bullpen was tired. Hill not getting a quick hook third time through the order, not coming back with Danish in the 6th, going with Robles before others, Robles being left in when it was quite obvious he didn't have it, etc.
ADD: I suspect he was cautious because Winck and Seabold and going on the weekend, but it felt like he got too cute trying to preserve the pen today.
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Post by e on Jul 1, 2022 17:45:50 GMT -5
Yeah, but he’s smarter than everyone else. Bullpen arms lack “value”. What are people complaining about here? Bloom added a bunch of bullpen arms, some of whom have done well. Maybe they've stuck with Robles a little too long, but it's not like Bloom doesn't care about relief pitching. I can't speak for everyone, but the core issue that I have is not with the "not adding" bullpen pieces, I think Bloom did make an effort to bolster the bullpen this offseason, just got unlucky with a bunch of them faltering. My issue is that they've held on to guys like Robles way too long. Before Robles' injury over a month ago, everything pointed to him not being a major league bullpen piece. The fact that we are in July and he is still negatively affecting these games is an issue. They have interesting arms down in Worcester, use them. A DFA of Robles opens up a spot for Kelly or Ort. I feel it is negligent of a competing team to hold onto someone like him for this long.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 1, 2022 17:47:53 GMT -5
I have faith there is like at least 6 kids that could help them right now in the bullpen.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 1, 2022 17:48:19 GMT -5
Good lord, the worst starter on the team hears a pop in his leg, then pitches the third time through the order the day after an offday. That is atrocious. Cora is a mess lately.
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 1, 2022 17:52:49 GMT -5
Brutal loss. Time for Bloom to make some kind of move.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,092
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Post by cdj on Jul 1, 2022 17:54:36 GMT -5
Bad Hansel, bad
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Post by incandenza on Jul 1, 2022 17:59:28 GMT -5
Good lord, the worst starter on the team hears a pop in his leg, then pitches the third time through the order the day after an offday. That is atrocious. Cora is a mess lately. I even thought during the game that Cora looked exhausted. Maybe a bad night of sleep? Fight with the wife? Head just not totally in this one? It happens...
I am rarely critical of his in-game management but he really seemed off in this one.
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Post by redsox43 on Jul 1, 2022 18:40:30 GMT -5
Yeah I’m pretty tired of seeing Diekman out there. Just cut your losses with that signing already. At least Robles was cheap. I agree that Diekman is probably traded in the next deal for a reliever. Once Taylor comes back, that would be three LHP in the bullpen in high leverage. That kind of bullpen construction is weird and probably doesn't work. Taylor has a harder time with RHB last year, Cora doesn't like using Strahm against right handed heavy lineups too much. I also agree that Zach Kelly probably gets a call up soon to see what he looks like before the deadline, but I don't think his promotion will stop Chaim from getting another arm, regardless.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 1, 2022 18:42:56 GMT -5
Where is Austin Davis?
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 1, 2022 18:49:29 GMT -5
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 1, 2022 20:03:52 GMT -5
....and your catcher down on a knee so that he has no ability to move side-to-side Thats why he hasnt be extended. His days are numbered. It's a systemwide thing, catchers on one knee. Tek is a huge proponent. The theory is they are better able to frame the ball. I'd like to see numbers on that, compared to how many WP/PB they don't get to. There's enough before and after data on that now.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 1, 2022 22:10:38 GMT -5
Good lord, the worst starter on the team hears a pop in his leg, then pitches the third time through the order the day after an offday. That is atrocious. Cora is a mess lately. Yes, this would be atrocious:
Cora [walks to mound] "How do you feel?" Hill: "I don't know, I heard something pop in my knee." Cora: "Hmm. Think you can get through the inning?" Hill: "I don't know, skip. I can definitely try." Cora: "Go get 'em, old timer!"
But I don't think that's how it went. I think if Hill had told Cora that he heard something pop in his knee, the next words out of Cora's mouth, in Spanish, to Vazquez, would've been "Rojo, put him in a half-nelson and I'll pry the ball out of his hands."
Instead, I think the conversation went something like:
Cora: "How do you feel?" Hill: "I'm fine. It was nothing, I just slipped. I got this." Cora: [in English, out of respect for Hill] "Christian, what do you think?" Vazquez: [out of respect for Hill] "He's good. He's good." Cora: "Okay. This is your last inning either way, so show me what you got. LFG!"
If I had to guess, Cora's probably a bit pissed at Hill right now.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 1, 2022 22:24:31 GMT -5
I think the lineup deserves some blame today too. 4-0 wasn’t enough after the first couple innings. Had a bad pitcher on the ropes and could’ve put them away early. Didn’t and paid the price and the bullpen is the culprit
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 1, 2022 22:32:03 GMT -5
20/20 hindsight, I think you get Houck up behind Danish. Danish gets out of the 5th with the lead intact. The offense tacks another run on. Houck should be good for 2+ innings. Can he get to and maybe even start the 8th? Then you have Scrubber, Strahm, Brasier, and everyone else who had yesterday off to get the last 4 or 5 outs. I get that you want to save guys for the next two games but if Houck gets you to one out in the 8th, you hope that someone can get you out of the inning and then Scrubber closes. My guess is that AC wanted to save Houck for a save situation to show that he's got his back and he wound up having to use Robles and Diekman instead. There are so many ways to lose a game.
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Post by keninten on Jul 2, 2022 1:15:35 GMT -5
Good lord, the worst starter on the team hears a pop in his leg, then pitches the third time through the order the day after an offday. That is atrocious. Cora is a mess lately. Yes, this would be atrocious:
Cora [walks to mound] "How do you feel?" Hill: "I don't know, I heard something pop in my knee." Cora: "Hmm. Think you can get through the inning?" Hill: "I don't know, skip. I can definitely try." Cora: "Go get 'em, old timer!"
But I don't think that's how it went. I think if Hill had told Cora that he heard something pop in his knee, the next words out of Cora's mouth, in Spanish, to Vazquez, would've been "Rojo, put him in a half-nelson and I'll pry the ball out of his hands."
Instead, I think the conversation went something like:
Cora: "How do you feel?" Hill: "I'm fine. It was nothing, I just slipped. I got this." Cora: [in English, out of respect for Hill] "Christian, what do you think?" Vazquez: [out of respect for Hill] "He's good. He's good." Cora: "Okay. This is your last inning either way, so show me what you got. LFG!"
If I had to guess, Cora's probably a bit pissed at Hill right now.
Speculative gossip sucks
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Post by keninten on Jul 2, 2022 1:19:48 GMT -5
20/20 hindsight, I think you get Houck up behind Danish. Danish gets out of the 5th with the lead intact. The offense tacks another run on. Houck should be good for 2+ innings. Can he get to and maybe even start the 8th? Then you have Scrubber, Strahm, Brasier, and everyone else who had yesterday off to get the last 4 or 5 outs. I get that you want to save guys for the next two games but if Houck gets you to one out in the 8th, you hope that someone can get you out of the inning and then Scrubber closes. My guess is that AC wanted to save Houck for a save situation to show that he's got his back and he wound up having to use Robles and Diekman instead. There are so many ways to lose a game. I hate to pick on you because you have some good posts but, this speculating what someone is thinking drives me nuts.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,935
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 2, 2022 5:00:24 GMT -5
Most telling team stat so far:
The Sox are 43-34 ... but ...
They are 50-27 at being the first team to establish a 75% chance of winning.
Keep in mind that good teams almost always have more wins after being down below 25% than they have losses after being up 75%. Asking for the team to simply break even in coming back from a deficit / holding on to a lead is a very modest request. But if the Sox had managed that, they would have the second-best record in MLB and they'd be just 6 games behind the Yankees.
And it's actually been worst than that. On April 26th in Toronto they had a .179 win chance after the Jays got the leadoff man on in the top of the 7th, leading 2-1. The Sox put up a 4-spot in the 8th and pushed their win chance to .968.
On June 28th in Toronto they had a .135 win chance with 2 outs an a runner on in the top of the 7th when Refsnyder went yard, and they got their win chance up to .837 when Devers drew a 1-out walk in the top of the 9th.
Those were the only two times this season when they rallied in the 7th or later after being down below .250. And of course you know what happened ... they lost both games. The Sox have been below .250 starting the 7th (or while batting in the top of the inning) 21 times and have yet to win.
Overall, they've lost 13 games where they had >.750 (including the two where they were <.250 earlier) while rallying after<.250 and winning just 4 times. But the losses have been more severe; they've blown four >.910 while winning none. If you factor that in, they're 8 wins below average in clutch rather than 7.
Yes, the batting splits reflect this; they have a 95 OPS+ relative to league Late and Close, for instance.
Here's another fun split, OPS+ by outs, hitters-opponents (i.e., hitters, pitchers)
0 0ut 128-88 (+40)
1 out 111-94 (+17)
2 out 90-100 (-10)
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Post by manfred on Jul 2, 2022 9:46:35 GMT -5
Most telling team stat so far:
The Sox are 43-34 ... but ...
They are 50-27 at being the first team to establish a 75% chance of winning.
Keep in mind that good teams almost always have more wins after being down below 25% than they have losses after being up 75%. Asking for the team to simply break even in coming back from a deficit / holding on to a lead is a very modest request. But if the Sox had managed that, they would have the second-best record in MLB and they'd be just 6 games behind the Yankees.
And it's actually been worst than that. On April 26th in Toronto they had a .179 win chance after the Jays got the leadoff man on in the top of the 7th, leading 2-1. The Sox put up a 4-spot in the 8th and pushed their win chance to .968.
On June 28th in Toronto they had a .135 win chance with 2 outs an a runner on in the top of the 7th when Refsnyder went yard, and they got their win chance up to .837 when Devers drew a 1-out walk in the top of the 9th.
Those were the only two times this season when they rallied in the 7th or later after being down below .250. And of course you know what happened ... they lost both games. The Sox have been below .250 starting the 7th (or while batting in the top of the inning) 21 times and have yet to win.
Overall, they've lost 13 games where they had >.750 (including the two where they were <.250 earlier) while rallying after<.250 and winning just 4 times. But the losses have been more severe; they've blown four >.910 while winning none. If you factor that in, they're 8 wins below average in clutch rather than 7.
Yes, the batting splits reflect this; they have a 95 OPS+ relative to league Late and Close, for instance.
Here's another fun split, OPS+ by outs, hitters-opponents (i.e., hitters, pitchers)
0 0ut 128-88 (+40)
1 out 111-94 (+17)
2 out 90-100 (-10)
This is an awesome analysis. Thanks.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jul 2, 2022 10:00:34 GMT -5
Awesome, yet sobering, analysis. But then again, we spent the entire first half of the Celtics season with the same issue and that turned out fine.
The optimist in me says that they are a few small parts away from fixing this rather than needing a big splash at the deadline.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,092
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Post by cdj on Jul 2, 2022 11:30:50 GMT -5
20/20 hindsight, I think you get Houck up behind Danish. Danish gets out of the 5th with the lead intact. The offense tacks another run on. Houck should be good for 2+ innings. Can he get to and maybe even start the 8th? Then you have Scrubber, Strahm, Brasier, and everyone else who had yesterday off to get the last 4 or 5 outs. I get that you want to save guys for the next two games but if Houck gets you to one out in the 8th, you hope that someone can get you out of the inning and then Scrubber closes. My guess is that AC wanted to save Houck for a save situation to show that he's got his back and he wound up having to use Robles and Diekman instead. There are so many ways to lose a game. I hate to pick on you because you have some good posts but, this speculating what someone is thinking drives me nuts. i hate to pick on you but It’s a discussion board where he is discussing what he thinks happened. People don’t need to cater their posts to your desires. What he’s thinking isn’t even unreasonable, Cora probably did want to save Houck for the 9th. Or at least part of the 8th. Otherwise you’d see him in high leverage spots before the last few outs, which we have not recently. They’ve been using him like a closer and not like a relief ace. Clearly they look at Schreiber as the relief ace, and he probably felt it was too early to burn him
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Post by benzinger on Jul 2, 2022 12:07:44 GMT -5
Are we still doing the thing where we blame Houck for every loss?
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,092
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Post by cdj on Jul 2, 2022 12:17:52 GMT -5
Are we still doing the thing where we blame Houck for every loss? Literally zero people have done that in this thread or done that in general.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 2, 2022 12:18:29 GMT -5
20/20 hindsight, I think you get Houck up behind Danish. Danish gets out of the 5th with the lead intact. The offense tacks another run on. Houck should be good for 2+ innings. Can he get to and maybe even start the 8th? Then you have Scrubber, Strahm, Brasier, and everyone else who had yesterday off to get the last 4 or 5 outs. I get that you want to save guys for the next two games but if Houck gets you to one out in the 8th, you hope that someone can get you out of the inning and then Scrubber closes. My guess is that AC wanted to save Houck for a save situation to show that he's got his back and he wound up having to use Robles and Diekman instead. There are so many ways to lose a game. I hate to pick on you because you have some good posts but, this speculating what someone is thinking drives me nuts. I get what you're saying, but I'd reserve this complaint for stuff like that lunatic theory that Houck was refusing to get vaccinated as part of an extortion scheme, or the idea that the team stunk last August because they were very sad that Bloom only added one all-star to the roster at the trade deadline. Trying to sort out in-game strategy seems like fair game to me, even if it's only speculation.
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Post by benzinger on Jul 2, 2022 12:19:02 GMT -5
I couldn’t help but notice that JBJ has his WAR all the way down to -0.5 for the season. If Cora keeps running him out there every day, I am optimistic that he can make it to -1.0 by the end of the season.
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Post by benzinger on Jul 2, 2022 12:19:50 GMT -5
Are we still doing the thing where we blame Houck for every loss? Literally zero people have done that in this thread or done that in general. OK. Just making sure. I was out of the loop for a couple days.
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