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7/11-7/14 Red Sox @ Rays Series Thread
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 12, 2022 13:52:59 GMT -5
But it depends on the market. The market for 1B is going to be a buyer's market. I just marked in your post all the teams that are in contention that may try to trade for a 1B. Even TOR is iffy, as they may fall out of contention (is anyone's seat hotter than Charlie Montoyo's?) or they could ride with Biggio or give hot-hitting recent AAA-call-up Spencer Horwitz an audition. Other than that, pretty much every contending team is either set at 1B or it's not their top need.
I like Chaim's chances of finding a good 1B option for a good deal.
Wait, what's the Vlad Jr. news that I missed?
(But Houston might could use a 1B, and the Mets as well to solve their DH issues.)
Roster Resource has Vlsd Jr. listed as their DH but he's been playing 1B mostly. They have Biggio listed as their 1B but he's moved around a bunch and only played 47 games. Maybe acquiring a Bell would allow Vladdy to be a full-time DH, if that's what he wants (because you know they'd ask him).
I'm assuming HOU is pretty set with Gurriel and NYM with Alonso.
N.B. Alonso has played 68 games at 1B and 19 at DH; Vladdy has played 67 games at 1B and 19 at DH, with one at 3B.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 12, 2022 13:55:09 GMT -5
I don't think just picking players who happened to play for the Red Sox makes sense as a comp. None of the guys you named had anything like Dalbec's offensive profile. What about guys who struck out as much as Dalbec does through a similar age/PA number? What about guys who can't hit velocity? That would be a better analysis, and I do not know how to do it.
Mainly I was just responding to manfred's "this is just what he is" comment after 782 career PAs. Major leaguera being fully-formed at that stage of their career is the exception rather than the rule.
Doesn't answer the question exactly, but I found that since the start of 2012 (arbitrarily went 10 years back) there are three players who have sustained a wRC+ over 100 in >500 PAs with a K% > 30% and a BB% under 8%. One of them is Dalbec. The other two are Tyler O'Neill and Keston Hiura, neither of whom has had really sustained success either. Even if we increase the walk rate maximum to 10%, there's no one who has had a really successful, sustained career. At the current profile (just K/BB not even considering batted balls), it would be really surprising if he lasts, especially since he's also bad defensively. That being said, his K% has improved every year so far, maybe he can keep improving it, and his walk rate has been up from last season too, so it's possible he continues improving, which is really your point, but I don't know that it's crazy to find it unlikely he does get that K/BB to a sustainable level.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 12, 2022 14:07:51 GMT -5
That would be a better analysis, and I do not know how to do it.
Mainly I was just responding to manfred's "this is just what he is" comment after 782 career PAs. Major leaguera being fully-formed at that stage of their career is the exception rather than the rule.
Doesn't answer the question exactly, but I found that since the start of 2012 (arbitrarily went 10 years back) there are three players who have sustained a wRC+ over 100 in >500 PAs with a K% > 30% and a BB% under 8%. One of them is Dalbec. The other two are Tyler O'Neill and Keston Hiura, neither of whom has had really sustained success either. Even if we increase the walk rate maximum to 10%, there's no one who has had a really successful, sustained career. At the current profile (just K/BB not even considering batted balls), it would be really surprising if he lasts, especially since he's also bad defensively. That being said, his K% has improved every year so far, maybe he can keep improving it, and his walk rate has been up from last season too, so it's possible he continues improving, which is really your point, but I don't know that it's crazy to find it unlikely he does get that K/BB to a sustainable level. O'Neill and Hiura both seem like pretty good comps, and looking at them from afar, I'd agree that neither of them has had really sustained success, but also I would see no reason to give up on either of them. Hell, O'Neill had a 5.7 WAR season just last year! And Hiura has a 128 wRC+ this season though a more modest .331 xwOBA and a frightful K rate.
And let me just say again, my position here is: "Dalbec is not totally worthless." I don't think he'll turn into Pete Alonso. But I think there's like a 30% chance he can be a league average player for a few years, maybe? This view apparently puts me way at the panglossian end of the spectrum here...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 12, 2022 14:10:00 GMT -5
You're banking on things with questionable likelihoods. Cordero is an awful 1b. He'd probably be better off in RF. Maybe the luck evens out or whatever but his track record is being a mediocre player and his numbers right now are so-so. I'm not convinced a breakout is right around the corner. It wouldn't shock me if one was but I wouldn't count on it. I'd prefer somebody with a better track record. Refsnyder has no track record of being a regular. The Sox have spotted him against lefties and he's done well. At this point he has convinced me he can be a guy worthy of being on a post-season roster who can platoon against lefties, but sticking him in as an everyday RF and expecting him to succeed is questionable. Maybe he and Cordero can form a solid platoon in RF. That could work. I don't expect the Sox to come away with both a 1b and RF. But I certainly wouldn't count on Hernandez at this point. He's having serious hip issues. I wouldn't be shocked if he wound up on the 60 day IL. He tried to play in AAA and had a setback. He's nowhere near being ready. I'm not saying they need to gut they system for an all-star, but they do need to lengthen the lineup with some certainty and there are 1b/rf option out there via trade. I'd be surprised if Bloom got neither a RF or 1b in a deal. If we're going off the eye test, I'll still take Cordero over Dalbec at 1B. Cordero was young and had terrible injury luck before coming to Boston and he was still just slightly below league average in his offensive production. He's healthy now, in his prime, and has more experience under his belt. It makes sense that his numbers would improve a bit. He's always had the tools.
Refsnyder's success is more out of the blue, but he has maintained it over a decent sample size. His OPS in 182 PA in Worcester this year is .952. His OPS in 80 PA in Boston this year is .957. He plays above average defense in RF too, so he wouldn't be useless even if his bat regresses a bit. I'm not counting on Hernandez, but we don't have to. Especially given his bat so far this year, I see him as potential utility depth. The team as currently constructed has a player at every position that has been producing. JBJ and Dalbec are the only two who really haven't been (and Dalbec on both sides of the ball), but they're mostly bench players. I'm not panicking over the bench being a bit thin when we're down two great utility guys in Arroyo and Hernandez. If we add any position players, then, I would prefer it to be a platoonable utility type. That kind of player would be useful without the high price tag. The lineup is already long and the offense has been good. Even with the bats being ice cold for the first month of the season the Sox are 4th in the majors in runs scored. The offense has been humming since April.
The issue over the past two weeks or so has been pitching, as can be expected with six starting pitchers injured, and that issue should resolve itself with time as I've pointed out. Adding new players on either side of the ball to improve depth is a decent idea. I don't think we need a starting-caliber player on either side of the ball, though. If the value is good, sure, anyone can use an impact player, but the value proposition at the deadline is usually terrible. I don't think it's worth paying a heavy premium to fill holes that don't really exist. Adding starting-caliber players is one way to improve depth, but so is adding platoon players. The latter likely won't carry the same inflated cost.
Understood but the problem is that Cordero is not an acceptable 1b. He is Schwarber like except he doesn't generate the offense that Schwarber did to make it a worthwhile gamble. I can buy Cordero as a corner OF solution perhaps. I don't think you can leave Cordero at 1b and feel like the infield defense will be find so if you can't then you cast your lot hoping that Dalbec plays a lot better than he has. It's frustrating. He has the power to hit 30 plus HRs, but he's just not anywhere near that kind of pace unless he has a scorching month or two. While it could happen, he can easily continue to get eaten up by RH pitching and be an offensive liability at a hitters position while not exactly being Keither Hernandez at 1b defensively. I still don't think Refsnyder has enough of a sample size to make me say, Play him every day. I expect him to do well in AAA given that Worcester is a good place to hit and he's older than a lot of the competition. He's either a AAAA player or a viable bench player in my opinion. 50 - 60 ABs isn't enough to make me want to play him every day. A number of his ABs have come against lefties who he is more likely to hit well. The eye test that I use on Refsnyder tells me he's a better defensive OF than I had thought he was. I know he has some pop. I'm becoming more convinced that he's a useful member of the roster but I'm not convinced he's an everyday solution. Like I said, Cordero and Refsnyder could form a nice platoon in the outfield.
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Post by manfred on Jul 12, 2022 14:12:45 GMT -5
But why do we assume there is a “figuring it out” at this point? I mean, JBJ has had huge streaks, but we don’t say, “ man, wait til he figures it out.” Some guys are what they are, and that includes some bursts.
There is no way he becomes Pete Alonso. That is crazy talk. They are the same age, and Alonso has accumulated a higher WAR this season (2.2) than Dalbec might in his whole career. He's got a career wRC+ of 102. That's in 782 career PAs. At a similar stage in his career Devers was at 95. Betts was at 111. Bogaerts was at 82. If you want a better age and positional comp, Youkilis was at 118.
If Dalbec follows Youkilis' trend, he'll peak as like a 130 wRC+ player.
I don't even mean to convince you, or anyone else here, that Dalbec is a valuable commodity. (Frankly, that's looking pretty Sisyphean.) But I do think there's good reason to think he might still have substantial value for GMs around the league - including Bloom, for that matter.
(*This is unfair, but I can't help but note that through the same age Dalbec is now, David Ortiz had a 106 wRC+ in 1700 PAs.)
Devers is *younger* than Dalbec… so when is that “similar” point? These are not comps. X, Devers, and Mookie were all kids. No college ball, much younger. Mookie was runner up for MVP in his second full season. X was an all-star at 23. Devers led the league in toral bases at 22. Don’t talk crazy. It doesn’t matter because no one expects Bobby to be a HOF caliber player. But that sort of comparison does no one any service. Add: but *why* would he follow Youk’s trend? If he follows Middlebrooks’ trend, he’ll be out of baseball in two years. If he follows Jim Morrison’s trend, he’ll be dead before the year is out. Add add: Youk was the Greek God of Walks. His career OBP is 80 points higher than Dalbec’s. Put differently, at age 27, Youk’s batting average alone was almost as high as Dalbec’s OBP. They are totally different players. (In many ways, but one being Youk was very good).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 12, 2022 14:15:03 GMT -5
But why do we assume there is a “figuring it out” at this point? I mean, JBJ has had huge streaks, but we don’t say, “ man, wait til he figures it out.” Some guys are what they are, and that includes some bursts.
There is no way he becomes Pete Alonso. That is crazy talk. They are the same age, and Alonso has accumulated a higher WAR this season (2.2) than Dalbec might in his whole career. He's got a career wRC+ of 102. That's in 782 career PAs. At a similar stage in his career Devers was at 95. Betts was at 111. Bogaerts was at 82. If you want a better age and positional comp, Youkilis was at 118.
If Dalbec follows Youkilis' trend, he'll peak as like a 130 wRC+ player. I don't even mean to convince you, or anyone else here, that Dalbec is a valuable commodity. (Frankly, that's looking pretty Sisyphean.) But I do think there's good reason to think he might still have substantial value for GMs around the league - including Bloom, for that matter.
(*This is unfair, but I can't help but note that through the same age Dalbec is now, David Ortiz had a 106 wRC+ in 1700 PAs.)
Comparing Devers to Dalbec doesn't make sense. Devers was 20 with a much higher pedigree. Dalbec is what, 26? Nearing the end of his growth. Devers had a ton of room to improve and boy did he ever. In 2020 Dalbec had some seriously impressive numbers. He had nintendo numbers early on until pitchers started to figure him out, so while I don't like the idea of throwing his 2020 numbers away, for me the numbers are the numbers but the arrow is not pointing up or at least I don't think so, I think it's trending down. I think pitchers know how to handle him more than the other way around and the Sox have been spotting him as often as they can to keep him away from pitchers that would expose him. If that wasn't the case, Franchy wouldn't have gotten the playing time that he has. And comparing Big Papi to Dalbec lacks context. Check out their minor league numbers. There is nothing similar there. Big Papi was held back by poor management and injuries. Dalbec suffers no such issue.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 12, 2022 14:22:05 GMT -5
Rays have about 48 ground ball hits this game. Last half inning for the Rays, after Dalbec was Dalbec: .200 xBA forceout .250 xBA single .020 xBA sac fly .400 xBA single .350 xBA single .460 xBA single .000 xBA flyout Absolutely ridiculous luck. They have a .270 xBA for the game and they have 10 runs on 14 hits. .400 BA. Meanwhile the Sox have a .278 xBA and a .272 BA. This game is cursed. Not only that, but most of those singles with decent xBAs for Tampa had exit velocities of 60-80 mph.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 12, 2022 14:25:51 GMT -5
Doesn't answer the question exactly, but I found that since the start of 2012 (arbitrarily went 10 years back) there are three players who have sustained a wRC+ over 100 in >500 PAs with a K% > 30% and a BB% under 8%. One of them is Dalbec. The other two are Tyler O'Neill and Keston Hiura, neither of whom has had really sustained success either. Even if we increase the walk rate maximum to 10%, there's no one who has had a really successful, sustained career. At the current profile (just K/BB not even considering batted balls), it would be really surprising if he lasts, especially since he's also bad defensively. That being said, his K% has improved every year so far, maybe he can keep improving it, and his walk rate has been up from last season too, so it's possible he continues improving, which is really your point, but I don't know that it's crazy to find it unlikely he does get that K/BB to a sustainable level. O'Neill and Hiura both seem like pretty good comps, and looking at them from afar, I'd agree that neither of them has had really sustained success, but also I would see no reason to give up on either of them. Hell, O'Neill had a 5.7 WAR season just last year! And Hiura has a 128 wRC+ this season though a more modest .331 xwOBA and a frightful K rate.
And let me just say again, my position here is: "Dalbec is not totally worthless." I don't think he'll turn into Pete Alonso. But I think there's like a 30% chance he can be a league average player for a few years, maybe? This view apparently puts me way at the panglossian end of the spectrum here...
Yeah I think that's fair. I'm definitely in the camp of if they improve 1B with someone like Bell I'll be cool with it, but if they opt to improve elsewhere at the deadline that's fine too. If they want to give Bobby a little more run I could buy into the logic.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 12, 2022 14:25:58 GMT -5
He's got a career wRC+ of 102. That's in 782 career PAs. At a similar stage in his career Devers was at 95. Betts was at 111. Bogaerts was at 82. If you want a better age and positional comp, Youkilis was at 118.
If Dalbec follows Youkilis' trend, he'll peak as like a 130 wRC+ player.
I don't even mean to convince you, or anyone else here, that Dalbec is a valuable commodity. (Frankly, that's looking pretty Sisyphean.) But I do think there's good reason to think he might still have substantial value for GMs around the league - including Bloom, for that matter.
(*This is unfair, but I can't help but note that through the same age Dalbec is now, David Ortiz had a 106 wRC+ in 1700 PAs.)
Devers is *younger* than Dalbec… so when is that “similar” point? These are not comps. X, Devers, and Mookie were all kids. No college ball, much younger. Mookie was runner up for MVP in his second full season. X was an all-star at 23. Devers led the league in toral bases at 22. Don’t talk crazy. It doesn’t matter because no one expects Bobby to be a HOF caliber player. But that sort of comparison does no one any service. Add: but *why* would he follow Youk’s trend? If he follows Middlebrooks’ trend, he’ll be out of baseball in two years. If he follows Jim Morrison’s trend, he’ll be dead before the year is out. Why are you treating age as the only variable to measure a major leaguers' maturity? It's a factor, but the more important factor is experience at the major league level. Hence: PAs. Does that not intuitively make sense to you?
I think this site's scouting report on him is from 2020, but it still looks basically true to me: Why be completely *hopeless* about his ability to make improvements when he hasn't yet reached 800 career PAs? (As you were about Franchy last season, for instance...)
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Post by manfred on Jul 12, 2022 14:29:04 GMT -5
Devers is *younger* than Dalbec… so when is that “similar” point? These are not comps. X, Devers, and Mookie were all kids. No college ball, much younger. Mookie was runner up for MVP in his second full season. X was an all-star at 23. Devers led the league in toral bases at 22. Don’t talk crazy. It doesn’t matter because no one expects Bobby to be a HOF caliber player. But that sort of comparison does no one any service. Add: but *why* would he follow Youk’s trend? If he follows Middlebrooks’ trend, he’ll be out of baseball in two years. If he follows Jim Morrison’s trend, he’ll be dead before the year is out. Why are you treating age as the only variable to measure a major leaguers' maturity? It's a factor, but the more important factor is experience at the major league level. Hence: PAs. Does that not intuitively make sense to you?
I think this site's scouting report on him is from 2020, but it still looks basically true to me: Why be completely *hopeless* about his ability to make improvements when he hasn't yet reached 800 career PAs? (As you were about Franchy last season, for instance...)
Yeah… and Franchy remains a below-average player.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 12, 2022 14:32:56 GMT -5
For me, you cannot just dismiss Dalbec and Franchy's insane hot streaks that most MLB players are incapable of ever doing, just because they have the cold streaks that are just as bad. All it takes is to shorten the cold streaks and they are both awesome players. Maybe they never get to that point, but it's just dumb to throw it away before you find out. And you should spend a lot longer than this amount of time before declaring it over.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 12, 2022 14:35:21 GMT -5
Why are you treating age as the only variable to measure a major leaguers' maturity? It's a factor, but the more important factor is experience at the major league level. Hence: PAs. Does that not intuitively make sense to you?
I think this site's scouting report on him is from 2020, but it still looks basically true to me: Why be completely *hopeless* about his ability to make improvements when he hasn't yet reached 800 career PAs? (As you were about Franchy last season, for instance...)
Yeah… and Franchy remains a below-average player. Oh, come on. First of all, the point is that he's vastly improved from last season - something which you were pretty explicit about regarding as extraordinarily unlikely, if not impossible. Second, his xwOBA is .369 and his wOBA is underperforming it by 50 points, and we've all seen that he's been killing the ball when he makes contact. The point is that he looks like a totally different hitter, which I'm pretty sure you have acknowledged... And yet you are now just as certain as you were with Franchy that Dalbec couldn't possibly make a similar jump.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 12, 2022 14:39:07 GMT -5
Why are you treating age as the only variable to measure a major leaguers' maturity? It's a factor, but the more important factor is experience at the major league level. Hence: PAs. Does that not intuitively make sense to you?
I think this site's scouting report on him is from 2020, but it still looks basically true to me: Why be completely *hopeless* about his ability to make improvements when he hasn't yet reached 800 career PAs? (As you were about Franchy last season, for instance...)
Yeah… and Franchy remains a below-average player. Based on what? Positive FG WAR, net 0 on Bref, 102 wRC+, most of the popular metrics on Baseball Savant are well above average. He's not a world beater by any means, but he's absolutely been an average MLB regular this year and I think that counts as a huge win. Is it really that hard to own up to being wrong and give the guy a little credit, just once? I'm not asking you to do it every time, that would be asking way too much, but your insistence on being skeptical when the results don't fit your pre-conceived notion but then immediately jumping in acting like your opinions are confirmed any time a small sample seems to do so has always struck me as a bit excessive, even in a sphere (sports fandom) where that's prevalent.
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Post by manfred on Jul 12, 2022 14:40:35 GMT -5
Yeah… and Franchy remains a below-average player. Oh, come on. First of all, the point is that he's vastly improved from last season - something which you were pretty explicit about regarding as extraordinarily unlikely, if not impossible. Second, his xwOBA is .369 and his wOBA is underperforming it by 50 points, and we've all seen that he's been killing the ball when he makes contact. The point is that he looks like a totally different hitter, which I'm pretty sure you have acknowledged... And yet you are now just as certain as you were with Franchy that Dalbec couldn't possibly make a similar jump. Franchy has made a huge jump from Wily Mo to below average. Without a similar jump neither he nor Dalbec should be part of the Sox future. I think Dalbec can and likely will have hot streaks at some point. But his periods of utter uselessness are too long over 162 games. His -.7 bWAR feels about right… the Sox are a worse team for having him.
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Post by manfred on Jul 12, 2022 14:41:52 GMT -5
Yeah… and Franchy remains a below-average player. Based on what? Positive FG WAR, net 0 on Bref, 102 wRC+, most of the popular metrics on Baseball Savant are well above average. He's not a world beater by any means, but he's absolutely been an average MLB regular this year and I think that counts as a huge win. Is it really that hard to own up to being wrong and give the guy a little credit, just once? I'm not asking you to do it every time, that would be asking way too much, but your insistence on being skeptical when the results don't fit your pre-conceived notion but then immediately jumping in acting like your opinions are confirmed any time a small sample seems to do so has always struck me as a bit excessive, even in a sphere (sports fandom) where that's prevalent. He’s a 0 bWAR, a 96 OPS+ and a bad fielder. I suppose we can define that our own ways.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 12, 2022 14:41:54 GMT -5
Oh, come on. First of all, the point is that he's vastly improved from last season - something which you were pretty explicit about regarding as extraordinarily unlikely, if not impossible. Second, his xwOBA is .369 and his wOBA is underperforming it by 50 points, and we've all seen that he's been killing the ball when he makes contact. The point is that he looks like a totally different hitter, which I'm pretty sure you have acknowledged... And yet you are now just as certain as you were with Franchy that Dalbec couldn't possibly make a similar jump. Franchy has made a huge jump from Wily Mo to below average. Without a similar jump neither he nor Dalbec should be part of the Sox future. I think Dalbec can and likely will have hot streaks at some point. But his periods of utter uselessness are too long over 162 games. His -.7 bWAR feels about right… the Sox are a worse team for having him. And where would they have been last year without Dalbec carrying the team for more than 6 weeks when they were on an absolute tear putting the team from probably missing the playoffs to making it?
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 12, 2022 14:43:01 GMT -5
Based on what? Positive FG WAR, net 0 on Bref, 102 wRC+, most of the popular metrics on Baseball Savant are well above average. He's not a world beater by any means, but he's absolutely been an average MLB regular this year and I think that counts as a huge win. Is it really that hard to own up to being wrong and give the guy a little credit, just once? I'm not asking you to do it every time, that would be asking way too much, but your insistence on being skeptical when the results don't fit your pre-conceived notion but then immediately jumping in acting like your opinions are confirmed any time a small sample seems to do so has always struck me as a bit excessive, even in a sphere (sports fandom) where that's prevalent. He’s a 0 bWAR, a 96 OPS+ and a bad fielder. I suppose we can define that our own ways. ZERO Outs Above Average = Absolutely average. Not bad.
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Post by manfred on Jul 12, 2022 14:47:37 GMT -5
I am convinced. We are blessed with a grand 1b pairing.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 12, 2022 14:49:02 GMT -5
I am convinced. We are blessed with a grand 1b pairing. Excellent strawman, Eeyore. You can take the one metric up against... all of the other ones that confirm your opinions, I hope one day you get to enjoy things.
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Post by manfred on Jul 12, 2022 14:53:34 GMT -5
I am convinced. We are blessed with a grand 1b pairing. Excellent strawman, Eeyore. You can take the one metric up against... all of the other ones that confirm your opinions, I hope one day you get to enjoy things. Wait… I was actually thinking that about the counterpoint. I mean by most metrics, Dalbec is bad. Old school? BA, OBP, slugging? Brutal. WAR? Brutal. So only as we get deeper into the weeds can you find things (x numbers etc) that might say otherwise. But when you start saying, hey, he hits his outs hard, is that really a better argument than he doesn’t actually get hits and/or walk? Add: I like that I’m Eeyore for arguing against the comparisons to X, Mookie, Devers, and Alonso. How am *I* the one with the insane perspective?
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Post by benzinger on Jul 12, 2022 15:54:06 GMT -5
I mentioned Brandon Drury the other day. He’s having a nice year for CIN, he’s a pure rental and can definitely handle 1B(he can play all over actually). Probably wouldn’t cost much at all. Josh Bell would seem to warrant a big return by comparison. Drury and Dalbec have almost identical projections for the rest of the season.
The versatility is nice, but he looks to me like a guy who's having a big honking outlier of a season, not one who I'd count on keeping up the offensive performance.
Is it fair to pre-suppose that the Dalbec projections are garbage? What did they project for him prior to the season, for example(and what did they project for Drury?)? The game is played by people, not projections or spreadsheets. Drury is having a great season. I understand that the models expect him to stink(that’s why he’s playing this season on a minor league deal), but his real world performance is more interesting than that.
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Post by benzinger on Jul 12, 2022 16:05:18 GMT -5
I am convinced. We are blessed with a grand 1b pairing. You aren’t going crazy. Dalbec stinks. Franchy has absolutely improved from last season(but he can’t play 1B). If Dalbec truly does have some value, then this is a good time to trade him. It seems like pure homerism to pretend that Dalbec is a positive on this team. At least he’s better than Travis Shaw, though. I’ll say that much for him.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 12, 2022 16:07:27 GMT -5
Drury and Dalbec have almost identical projections for the rest of the season.
The versatility is nice, but he looks to me like a guy who's having a big honking outlier of a season, not one who I'd count on keeping up the offensive performance.
Is it fair to pre-suppose that the Dalbec projections are garbage? What did they project for him prior to the season, for example(and what did they project for Drury?)? The game is played by people, not projections or spreadsheets. Drury is having a great season. I understand that the models expect him to stink(that’s why he’s playing this season on a minor league deal), but his real world performance is more interesting than that. The projections have Dalbec at 100 to 110 wRC+ for the rest of the season. He's at 102 for his career, and 102 over the past two months.
They have Drury at 102 to 108 for the rest of the season. He's at 91 for his career, and 133 over the past two months.
Make of it what you will.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jul 12, 2022 16:11:30 GMT -5
Drury and Dalbec have almost identical projections for the rest of the season. The versatility is nice, but he looks to me like a guy who's having a big honking outlier of a season, not one who I'd count on keeping up the offensive performance.
Is it fair to pre-suppose that the Dalbec projections are garbage? What did they project for him prior to the season, for example(and what did they project for Drury?)? The game is played by people, not projections or spreadsheets. Drury is having a great season. I understand that the models expect him to stink(that’s why he’s playing this season on a minor league deal), but his real world performance is more interesting than that. I’d really like to see a study that took mid-year results and rest of year projections and compare which one ended up being more predictive of the second half performance. I’d strongly bet the predictive stats, but I think it would be great to see with empirical data. Trust but verify… Reminds me of when I drafted my first fantasy baseball team in May 2000. We got into it a month late and I drafted based on April results (hello Pokey Reese). Needless to say I had a tough year… I actually think the bigger issue for me is not Dalbec actual vs expected. I just don’t like the 100 wRC+ that he brings. It’s infrequent, streaky, and against weaker pitching. He’s good depth but not someone I want in the starting 9. He’s someone that I think needs to be 120 wRC+ or brings great defense for me to get excited about.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 12, 2022 16:13:20 GMT -5
When is Casas going to be ready? I feel like i’ve been waiting for him to come back for way too long.
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