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7/11-7/14 Red Sox @ Rays Series Thread
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 12, 2022 11:27:31 GMT -5
It's a little more than what I'd like to see for two months of Bell. 4+ years of Dalbec by itself should git 'er done.
Of course, the prices for lower-level trade targets always tend to be inflated by the media. It's only the Berrios or Castillo types that bring in huge packages, just like in free agency now. Are you sure that that's a positive asset at this point? I'd be amazed if we could get rid of Dalbec in the same trade that nets his replacement. I would have assumed we'd have to dump him to Pittsburgh for some AAAA player that needs a change of scenery or 18 year old DSL lottery ticket while giving up a few real prospects for someone like Bell.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 12, 2022 11:31:58 GMT -5
Aldo Ramirez has not pitched for the Nats other than 7 2/3 bad FCL rehab innings last year. I wonder if there's some bad feelings about that trade
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Post by manfred on Jul 12, 2022 11:35:23 GMT -5
It's a little more than what I'd like to see for two months of Bell. 4+ years of Dalbec by itself should git 'er done.
Of course, the prices for lower-level trade targets always tend to be inflated by the media. It's only the Berrios or Castillo types that bring in huge packages, just like in free agency now. Are you sure that that's a positive asset at this point? I'd be amazed if we could get rid of Dalbec in the same trade that nets his replacement. I would have assumed we'd have to dump him to Pittsburgh for some AAAA player that needs a change of scenery or 18 year old DSL lottery ticket while giving up a few real prospects for someone like Bell. Dalbec is 27, in his 2nd full season, at .1 career bWAR and exactly 100 career OPS+. He gets streaky, which helps bolster his numbers, but that is as it has been. I think it is really, really hard to imagine he ever does more than what he is doing. And I suspect every GM in baseball knows that. His trade value is probably a lottery ticket in the lowest minors. As far as upgrades… I mean, it doesn’t take Mancini… Travis Shaw might be a push at this point. If they could get some average fielding journeyman, they’d be better for it.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 12, 2022 11:38:12 GMT -5
Jim Bowden suggested Bell for Dalbec and Chris Murphy today And you do that deal in a Cocaine Heartbeat. It would hurt to include my man Murphy but I thought that was funny.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 12, 2022 11:38:19 GMT -5
Yes, you're a bigger believer in Dalbec than a lot of us. So noted. Maybe he will have one spectacular month that will balance out the rest of his season before becoming a pumpkin again. I'm not saying anything about Dalbec here, I'm just noting what Bloom's MO has been.
But I guess I would reiterate that I think OF is a bigger problem than 1B, especially if Kiké isn't coming back. I will cop to being more optimistic about Dalbec than Duran for the rest of the season, for instance.
So how about... Benintendi? Or Ian Happ? Push Verdugo to RF, go with a JBJ/Refsnyder platoon in CF.
Or Laureano for CF, leaving JBJ/Ref in RF?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 12, 2022 11:49:16 GMT -5
I'm not saying anything about Dalbec here, I'm just noting what Bloom's MO has been. As for that Bowden proposal, I'll just note that that's more than they sent to Washington for a comparable player last year, albeit one who was injured at the time.
But I guess I would reiterate that I think OF is a bigger problem than 1B, especially if Kiké isn't coming back. I will cop to being more optimistic about Dalbec than Duran for the rest of the season, for instance. So how about... Benintendi? Or Ian Happ? Push Verdugo to RF, go with a JBJ/Refsnyder platoon in CF. Or Laureano for CF, leaving JBJ/Ref in RF?
How about moving Cordero back to the outfield in a platoon? He is a major liability at 1b. It undermines the rest of the infield defense if they have a guy who has trouble catching the ball. So that would leave Dalbec as the 1b and I don't trust his ability to hit RH pitching. And I wouldn't want JBJ getting 400 plus ABs this year. He's a late inning defensive replacement at this point. Maybe Cordero/Refsnyder works in RF?
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Post by redsox43 on Jul 12, 2022 12:00:27 GMT -5
But I guess I would reiterate that I think OF is a bigger problem than 1B, especially if Kiké isn't coming back. I will cop to being more optimistic about Dalbec than Duran for the rest of the season, for instance. So how about... Benintendi? Or Ian Happ? Push Verdugo to RF, go with a JBJ/Refsnyder platoon in CF. Or Laureano for CF, leaving JBJ/Ref in RF?
How about moving Cordero back to the outfield in a platoon? He is a major liability at 1b. It undermines the rest of the infield defense if they have a guy who has trouble catching the ball. So that would leave Dalbec as the 1b and I don't trust his ability to hit RH pitching. And I wouldn't want JBJ getting 400 plus ABs this year. He's a late inning defensive replacement at this point. Maybe Cordero/Refsnyder works in RF? Cordero/Refsnyder works in RF, but who's playing CF? Duran is brutal there. JBJ is a defensive replacement. You still need a CF and a first basemen.
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Post by redsox43 on Jul 12, 2022 12:04:19 GMT -5
Yeah I don't think Mancini is getting traded in division, especially with the Orioles hanging around for now.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 12, 2022 12:04:40 GMT -5
How about moving Cordero back to the outfield in a platoon? He is a major liability at 1b. It undermines the rest of the infield defense if they have a guy who has trouble catching the ball. So that would leave Dalbec as the 1b and I don't trust his ability to hit RH pitching. And I wouldn't want JBJ getting 400 plus ABs this year. He's a late inning defensive replacement at this point. Maybe Cordero/Refsnyder works in RF? Cordero/Refsnyder works in RF, but who's playing CF? Duran is brutal there. JBJ is a defensive replacement. You still need a CF and a first basemen. He is bad in CF, but I think they'll have to live with it unless they get Laureano (I would think Oakland would want Duran in a Laureano deal?). They're not likely getting Hernandez back any time soon, if at all.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 12, 2022 12:11:09 GMT -5
It's a little more than what I'd like to see for two months of Bell. 4+ years of Dalbec by itself should git 'er done. Of course, the prices for lower-level trade targets always tend to be inflated by the media. It's only the Berrios or Castillo types that bring in huge packages, just like in free agency now. Are you sure that that's a positive asset at this point? I'd be amazed if we could get rid of Dalbec in the same trade that nets his replacement. I would have assumed we'd have to dump him to Pittsburgh for some AAAA player that needs a change of scenery or 18 year old DSL lottery ticket while giving up a few real prospects for someone like Bell. It will all be about demand - what other teams offer for Bell vs. what prospects the Nats value. Their system, I think, is rather bare.
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Post by benzinger on Jul 12, 2022 12:36:22 GMT -5
And Josh Bell is just sitting there. And he's not the only one. There's Aguilar and Cooper in Miami. There's Cron in Colorado. Walker in Arizona. That's just off the top of my head. I'm sure there's more than can help the Sox that won't cost too much in a deal. I mentioned Brandon Drury the other day. He’s having a nice year for CIN, he’s a pure rental and can definitely handle 1B(he can play all over actually). Probably wouldn’t cost much at all. Josh Bell would seem to warrant a big return by comparison.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 12, 2022 12:37:38 GMT -5
Are you sure that that's a positive asset at this point? I'd be amazed if we could get rid of Dalbec in the same trade that nets his replacement. I would have assumed we'd have to dump him to Pittsburgh for some AAAA player that needs a change of scenery or 18 year old DSL lottery ticket while giving up a few real prospects for someone like Bell. Dalbec is 27, in his 2nd full season, at .1 career bWAR and exactly 100 career OPS+. He gets streaky, which helps bolster his numbers, but that is as it has been. I think it is really, really hard to imagine he ever does more than what he is doing. And I suspect every GM in baseball knows that. His trade value is probably a lottery ticket in the lowest minors. As far as upgrades… I mean, it doesn’t take Mancini… Travis Shaw might be a push at this point. If they could get some average fielding journeyman, they’d be better for it. Well, he's playing most days for a contending team, so I would think that 4 years of a 27-year-old who has flashed huge numbers at the big league level would be worth two months of a professional hitter whose only value to the Nats is as trade bait.
As I posted in a recent Bobby debate, in ten months at the big league level, he's had three incredible months at the plate, three average, two bad and two awful. I get that it can be frustrating to watch him day to day (and I am a proponent of sending him to Worcester IFF he doesn't leave at the deadline) but one way to look at that is 30% of the time, he's Pete Alonso. If he finally figures it out, he could bump that up to 60% or more. If you're the Nats, you have several years to get your own coaches into his head and see if they can unlock that.
I might actually ask WAS to throw in an FCL arm to seal the deal.
Isn't there a trade calculating webpage out there?
EDIT: Made a couple edits to rephrase.
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Post by manfred on Jul 12, 2022 12:46:53 GMT -5
Dalbec is 27, in his 2nd full season, at .1 career bWAR and exactly 100 career OPS+. He gets streaky, which helps bolster his numbers, but that is as it has been. I think it is really, really hard to imagine he ever does more than what he is doing. And I suspect every GM in baseball knows that. His trade value is probably a lottery ticket in the lowest minors. As far as upgrades… I mean, it doesn’t take Mancini… Travis Shaw might be a push at this point. If they could get some average fielding journeyman, they’d be better for it. Well, he's playing most days for a contending team, so I would think that 4 years of a 27-year-old who has flashed huge numbers at the big league level would be worth two months of a professional hitter whose only value to the Nats is as trade bait.
As I posted in a recent Bobby debate, in ten months at the big league level, he's had three incredible months at the plate, three average, two bad and two awful. I get that it can be frustrating to watch him day to day (and I am a proponent of sending him to Worcester IFF he doesn't leave at the deadline) but one way to look at that is he has a 30% chance of becoming Pete Alonso if he finally figures it out. If you're the Nats, you have several years to get your own coaches into his head and see if they can unlock that.
I might actually ask WAS to throw in an FCL arm to seal the deal.
Isn't there a trade calculating webpage out there?
But why do we assume there is a “figuring it out” at this point? I mean, JBJ has had huge streaks, but we don’t say, “ man, wait til he figures it out.” Some guys are what they are, and that includes some bursts. There is no way he becomes Pete Alonso. That is crazy talk. They are the same age, and Alonso has accumulated a higher WAR this season (2.2) than Dalbec might in his whole career.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 12, 2022 12:47:27 GMT -5
And he's not the only one. There's Aguilar and Cooper in Miami. There's Cron in Colorado. Walker in Arizona. That's just off the top of my head. I'm sure there's more than can help the Sox that won't cost too much in a deal. I mentioned Brandon Drury the other day. He’s having a nice year for CIN, he’s a pure rental and can definitely handle 1B(he can play all over actually). Probably wouldn’t cost much at all. Josh Bell would seem to warrant a big return by comparison. Drury and Dalbec have almost identical projections for the rest of the season.
The versatility is nice, but he looks to me like a guy who's having a big honking outlier of a season, not one who I'd count on keeping up the offensive performance.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 12, 2022 12:49:41 GMT -5
Well, he's playing most days for a contending team, so I would think that 4 years of a 27-year-old who has flashed huge numbers at the big league level would be worth two months of a professional hitter whose only value to the Nats is as trade bait.
As I posted in a recent Bobby debate, in ten months at the big league level, he's had three incredible months at the plate, three average, two bad and two awful. I get that it can be frustrating to watch him day to day (and I am a proponent of sending him to Worcester IFF he doesn't leave at the deadline) but one way to look at that is he has a 30% chance of becoming Pete Alonso if he finally figures it out. If you're the Nats, you have several years to get your own coaches into his head and see if they can unlock that.
I might actually ask WAS to throw in an FCL arm to seal the deal.
Isn't there a trade calculating webpage out there?
But why do we assume there is a “figuring it out” at this point? I mean, JBJ has had huge streaks, but we don’t say, “ man, wait til he figures it out.” Some guys are what they are, and that includes some bursts. There is no way he becomes Pete Alonso. That is crazy talk. They are the same age, and Alonso has accumulated a higher WAR this season (2.2) than Dalbec might in his whole career. I rephrased that (q.c.).
I don't think he's on the 26-man roster right now if BOS didn't think there was a possibility of him figuring things out.
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Post by manfred on Jul 12, 2022 12:54:54 GMT -5
But why do we assume there is a “figuring it out” at this point? I mean, JBJ has had huge streaks, but we don’t say, “ man, wait til he figures it out.” Some guys are what they are, and that includes some bursts. There is no way he becomes Pete Alonso. That is crazy talk. They are the same age, and Alonso has accumulated a higher WAR this season (2.2) than Dalbec might in his whole career. I rephrased that (q.c.).
I don't think he's on the 26-man roster right now if BOS didn't think there was a possibility of him figuring things out. Well, after 200+ major league games, he is not even Michael Chavis at this point. And I don’t think the Sox keep a guy at the big league level hoping he develops… that id what AAA is for. He is here because they have absolutely no alternative. And that is a huge failure.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 12, 2022 12:55:43 GMT -5
Are you sure that that's a positive asset at this point? I'd be amazed if we could get rid of Dalbec in the same trade that nets his replacement. I would have assumed we'd have to dump him to Pittsburgh for some AAAA player that needs a change of scenery or 18 year old DSL lottery ticket while giving up a few real prospects for someone like Bell. It will all be about demand - what other teams offer for Bell vs. what prospects the Nats value. Their system, I think, is rather bare. Extra Wild Card has created more buying pressure. There's no chance that NYY Houston Minnesota NYM Milwaukee LAD Boston Tampa Seattle Toronto Cleveland Baltimore San Diego Atlanta Philadelphia St. Louis San Francisco And maybe Texas, CWS, and Marlins are selling. That's a lot of teams not moving parts with most looking to buy. Whatever you think is fair, tack on a prospect.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 12, 2022 12:58:59 GMT -5
Giants could easily fall out of WC by July 31. Same with Seattle and Philly.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 12, 2022 13:12:26 GMT -5
I rephrased that (q.c.).
I don't think he's on the 26-man roster right now if BOS didn't think there was a possibility of him figuring things out. Well, after 200+ major league games, he is not even Michael Chavis at this point. And I don’t think the Sox keep a guy at the big league level hoping he develops… that id what AAA is for. He is here because they have absolutely no alternative. And that is a huge failure. He's there because he tore the cover off the ball for 6 weeks at the end of last season after getting some advice from Schwarber. Clearly they thought that he had figured something out and they decided to ride with him this season and not sign another a more proven 1B (like Josh Bell).
In other words, he figured some things out at the big league level already and they hoped that he could continue doing that and if he couldn't, Casas would be ready for the second half or they could trade for someone (like Josh Bell). So far, they're still waiting on Bobby and Casas had some bad injury luck but could still contribute. Bell is still an option, depending on how the bidding war progresses.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Jul 12, 2022 13:12:51 GMT -5
Duran’s UZR/150 up to -15 from -42. Put some respect on his name!
DRS still hates his guts but he may improve.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 12, 2022 13:19:52 GMT -5
Well, he's playing most days for a contending team, so I would think that 4 years of a 27-year-old who has flashed huge numbers at the big league level would be worth two months of a professional hitter whose only value to the Nats is as trade bait.
As I posted in a recent Bobby debate, in ten months at the big league level, he's had three incredible months at the plate, three average, two bad and two awful. I get that it can be frustrating to watch him day to day (and I am a proponent of sending him to Worcester IFF he doesn't leave at the deadline) but one way to look at that is he has a 30% chance of becoming Pete Alonso if he finally figures it out. If you're the Nats, you have several years to get your own coaches into his head and see if they can unlock that.
I might actually ask WAS to throw in an FCL arm to seal the deal.
Isn't there a trade calculating webpage out there?
But why do we assume there is a “figuring it out” at this point? I mean, JBJ has had huge streaks, but we don’t say, “ man, wait til he figures it out.” Some guys are what they are, and that includes some bursts.
There is no way he becomes Pete Alonso. That is crazy talk. They are the same age, and Alonso has accumulated a higher WAR this season (2.2) than Dalbec might in his whole career. He's got a career wRC+ of 102. That's in 782 career PAs. At a similar stage in his career Devers was at 95. Betts was at 111. Bogaerts was at 82. If you want a better age and positional comp, Youkilis was at 118.
If Dalbec follows Youkilis' trend, he'll peak as like a 130 wRC+ player.
I don't even mean to convince you, or anyone else here, that Dalbec is a valuable commodity. (Frankly, that's looking pretty Sisyphean.) But I do think there's good reason to think he might still have substantial value for GMs around the league - including Bloom, for that matter.
(*This is unfair, but I can't help but note that through the same age Dalbec is now, David Ortiz had a 106 wRC+ in 1700 PAs.)
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 12, 2022 13:26:20 GMT -5
But why do we assume there is a “figuring it out” at this point? I mean, JBJ has had huge streaks, but we don’t say, “ man, wait til he figures it out.” Some guys are what they are, and that includes some bursts.
There is no way he becomes Pete Alonso. That is crazy talk. They are the same age, and Alonso has accumulated a higher WAR this season (2.2) than Dalbec might in his whole career. He's got a career wRC+ of 102. That's in 782 career PAs. At a similar stage in his career Devers was at 95. Betts was at 111. Bogaerts was at 82. If you want a better age and positional comp, Youkilis was at 118.
If Dalbec follows Youkilis' trend, he'll peak as like a 130 wRC+ player.
I don't even mean to convince you, or anyone else here, that Dalbec is a valuable commodity. (Frankly, that's looking pretty Sisyphean.) But I do think there's good reason to think he might still have substantial value for GMs around the league - including Bloom, for that matter.
(*This is unfair, but I can't help but note that through the same age Dalbec is now, David Ortiz had a 106 wRC+ in 1700 PAs.)
I don't think just picking players who happened to play for the Red Sox makes sense as a comp. None of the guys you named had anything like Dalbec's offensive profile. What about guys who struck out as much as Dalbec does through a similar age/PA number? What about guys who can't hit velocity?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 12, 2022 13:32:18 GMT -5
It will all be about demand - what other teams offer for Bell vs. what prospects the Nats value. Their system, I think, is rather bare. Extra Wild Card has created more buying pressure. There's no chance that NYY Houston Minnesota NYM Milwaukee LAD Boston *Tampa Seattle Toronto * Cleveland Baltimore San Diego Atlanta Philadelphia St. Louis San Francisco And maybe Texas, CWS, and Marlins are selling. That's a lot of teams not moving parts with most looking to buy. Whatever you think is fair, tack on a prospect. But it depends on the market. The market for 1B is going to be a buyer's market. I just marked in your post all the teams that are in contention that may try to trade for a 1B. Even TOR is iffy, as they may fall out of contention (is anyone's seat hotter than Charlie Montoyo's?) or they could ride with Biggio or give hot-hitting recent AAA-call-up Spencer Horwitz an audition. Other than that, pretty much every contending team is either set at 1B or it's not their top need.
I like Chaim's chances of finding a good 1B option for a good deal.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 12, 2022 13:33:34 GMT -5
He's got a career wRC+ of 102. That's in 782 career PAs. At a similar stage in his career Devers was at 95. Betts was at 111. Bogaerts was at 82. If you want a better age and positional comp, Youkilis was at 118.
If Dalbec follows Youkilis' trend, he'll peak as like a 130 wRC+ player.
I don't even mean to convince you, or anyone else here, that Dalbec is a valuable commodity. (Frankly, that's looking pretty Sisyphean.) But I do think there's good reason to think he might still have substantial value for GMs around the league - including Bloom, for that matter.
(*This is unfair, but I can't help but note that through the same age Dalbec is now, David Ortiz had a 106 wRC+ in 1700 PAs.)
I don't think just picking players who happened to play for the Red Sox makes sense as a comp. None of the guys you named had anything like Dalbec's offensive profile. What about guys who struck out as much as Dalbec does through a similar age/PA number? What about guys who can't hit velocity? That would be a better analysis, and I do not know how to do it.
Mainly I was just responding to manfred's "this is just what he is" comment after 782 career PAs. Major leaguers being fully-formed at that stage of their career is the exception rather than the rule.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 12, 2022 13:35:40 GMT -5
Extra Wild Card has created more buying pressure. There's no chance that NYY Houston Minnesota NYM Milwaukee LAD Boston *Tampa Seattle Toronto * Cleveland Baltimore San Diego Atlanta Philadelphia St. Louis San Francisco And maybe Texas, CWS, and Marlins are selling. That's a lot of teams not moving parts with most looking to buy. Whatever you think is fair, tack on a prospect. But it depends on the market. The market for 1B is going to be a buyer's market. I just marked in your post all the teams that are in contention that may try to trade for a 1B. Even TOR is iffy, as they may fall out of contention (is anyone's seat hotter than Charlie Montoyo's?) or they could ride with Biggio or give hot-hitting recent AAA-call-up Spencer Horwitz an audition. Other than that, pretty much every contending team is either set at 1B or it's not their top need.
I like Chaim's chances of finding a good 1B option for a good deal.
Wait, what's the Vlad Jr. news that I missed?
(But Houston might could use a 1B, and the Mets as well to solve their DH issues.)
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