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7/11-7/14 Red Sox @ Rays Series Thread
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Post by benzinger on Jul 11, 2022 23:42:47 GMT -5
I’m all for Jeter Downs getting some action, Maybe everything clicks with the promotion. I tell you he isn’t nervous . He has that attitude that fits in. Tonight would have been the right time to get Downs a start. Dalbec had maybe the worst AB I’ve ever seen against Chapman and could use some time off(at a minimum). Not sure Downs is the answer, but don’t imagine he’s worse? Probably plays better defense, too.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 12, 2022 0:38:37 GMT -5
I’m all for Jeter Downs getting some action, Maybe everything clicks with the promotion. I tell you he isn’t nervous . He has that attitude that fits in. Tonight would have been the right time to get Downs a start. Dalbec had maybe the worst AB I’ve ever seen against Chapman and could use some time off(at a minimum). Not sure Downs is the answer, but don’t imagine he’s worse? Probably plays better defense, too. For sure plays better defense. With the plays he made last night he may be a plus glove at 3B. Dalbec, as we saw, leaves a lot to be desired lol
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 12, 2022 6:09:25 GMT -5
Rays have about 48 ground ball hits this game. Last half inning for the Rays, after Dalbec was Dalbec: .200 xBA forceout .250 xBA single .020 xBA sac fly .400 xBA single .350 xBA single .460 xBA single .000 xBA flyout Absolutely ridiculous luck. They have a .270 xBA for the game and they have 10 runs on 14 hits. .400 BA. Meanwhile the Sox have a .278 xBA and a .272 BA. This game is cursed. Bello allowed 7 hits and precisely 1 was a hard-hit ball with an xBA of more than .370 (Choi's single in the second). He had 4 expected hits, and one was Lowe's 73.5 mph bloop single (.93 hit) in the first.
That's a 5 4 1 1 3 5 line with average luck on balls in play.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 12, 2022 6:28:09 GMT -5
The Red Sox need to lengthen the lineup and improve infield defense. Go get bell. Also They have only 3 dependable relief pitchers. They need Whitlock to get healthy. Hope Crawford stays in Boston when the other starters come back to reinforce the bullpen too. Crawford has done enough to earn a bullpen spot. He should be up ROS. While this team in the overall picture is going nowhere fast they'll still make the playoffs and get bounced fairly quick. Might as well mix some of these guys into the pen and see if you can uncover some cheap relievers. See what you can get for Diekman too. If this team does spiral in the next few weeks you could probably sell sky high on Schreiber and get a legitimate top 100 prospect back for him.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 12, 2022 7:19:45 GMT -5
The Red Sox need to lengthen the lineup and improve infield defense. Go get bell. Also They have only 3 dependable relief pitchers. They need Whitlock to get healthy. Hope Crawford stays in Boston when the other starters come back to reinforce the bullpen too. Crawford has done enough to earn a bullpen spot. He should be up ROS. While this team in the overall picture is going nowhere fast they'll still make the playoffs and get bounced fairly quick. Might as well mix some of these guys into the pen and see if you can uncover some cheap relievers. See what you can get for Diekman too. If this team does spiral in the next few weeks you could probably sell sky high on Schreiber and get a legitimate top 100 prospect back for him. Schreiber is MIN
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 12, 2022 7:24:13 GMT -5
I really don’t think he’s a Quad A guy on a hot streak, I think there is reason to think this is real. Not the .900+ OPS, but the fact that he’s a major leaguer. The guy hits the ball hard and it’s not like he’s selling out for power to do it.
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 12, 2022 8:16:41 GMT -5
This is the right attitude. This was just one of those games. Except⦠the frustration in areas that are on-goingly frustrating (i.e. Dalbec) will pop up in every loss. That, too, is fair at this point. The needs are pretty clear at this point. I don't think the Sox need to get an all-stat level talent and give away too much of the farm system. They need to find average to above average players at 1b, rf, and RH relief pitching. I think the Sox have enough quality options at starting pitching although I think it's becoming more clearer than planning on Bello to be part of the 2022 rotation is probably not realistic - his command and control just aren't there yet and he needs more time in the minors. Still between Pivetta, Eovaldi, Sale, Wacha, Winckowski, Paxton, Hill, and Crawford they should be able to find four October worthy starters. They could continue to platoon Cordero/Dalbec at 1b, but I think the platoon isn't exactly Lowenstein/Roenicke. Cordero is a lousy 1b and doesn't hit enough to justify being a lousy 1b. Dalbec is meh. There are a lot of 1b options out there on the open market. I was hoping Casas would be the ultimate option but I don't think they can count on that at this point. They can continue with JBJ andd Refsnyder platooning in RF, but JBJ's good glove just doesn't justify him being an automatic out at the bottom of the order. A corner OF needs to be able to hit. Refsnyder might be a good platoon mate for Duran. The Sox need a RF. Perhaps Cordero is that guy. I don't really think so, but I do think it'll be tougher to get a RF than a 1b. I have a feeling Bloom will be focusing on a guy who can do both, which is why I expect him to go after Garrett Cooper from Miami. They need another RH reliever to go with Houck, Whitlock, and Schreiber. I'd prefer it be a closer so Houck can pitch multiple innings, but it doesn't absolutely need to be a closer, although I think they'd be better off it was, but either way, it has to be a step up from what Brasier and company give them. Fix these three areas, and I don't think it takes all-star level caliber players to do so, the Sox if they stay healthy enough, should be pretty well set for October. I don't think they really need a RF or 1B. Refsnyder has been playing well enough to justify starting. RSS tweeted that he had the highest xwOBA in the majors over the past month. If he starts in RF most days, with JBJ sprinkled in against righties, I feel good about that. As for 1B, Cordero has a 77th percentile xwOBA. He's been unlucky to be the middling producer he is and his bat more than justifies the glove. His defense has been bad, but he's still roughly Dalbec tier. He has -1 OAA and -3 DRS in 64 attempts at 1B. Dalbec is at 0 OAA and -4 DRS in 122 attempts. Bobby's been learning for longer, so Franchy is more likely to improve a bit there. Franchy's lefty splits aren't great, but I'd have no problem with a guy like Arroyo getting more ABs against righties. I wouldn't say no to an impact position player - every team can use one - but I don't think the current team really has holes either, especially once Kiké can come back. I'd be more interested in pitching depth, although that problem could solve itself too when our half dozen injured SP come back.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 12, 2022 8:34:44 GMT -5
The needs are pretty clear at this point. I don't think the Sox need to get an all-stat level talent and give away too much of the farm system. They need to find average to above average players at 1b, rf, and RH relief pitching. I think the Sox have enough quality options at starting pitching although I think it's becoming more clearer than planning on Bello to be part of the 2022 rotation is probably not realistic - his command and control just aren't there yet and he needs more time in the minors. Still between Pivetta, Eovaldi, Sale, Wacha, Winckowski, Paxton, Hill, and Crawford they should be able to find four October worthy starters. They could continue to platoon Cordero/Dalbec at 1b, but I think the platoon isn't exactly Lowenstein/Roenicke. Cordero is a lousy 1b and doesn't hit enough to justify being a lousy 1b. Dalbec is meh. There are a lot of 1b options out there on the open market. I was hoping Casas would be the ultimate option but I don't think they can count on that at this point. They can continue with JBJ andd Refsnyder platooning in RF, but JBJ's good glove just doesn't justify him being an automatic out at the bottom of the order. A corner OF needs to be able to hit. Refsnyder might be a good platoon mate for Duran. The Sox need a RF. Perhaps Cordero is that guy. I don't really think so, but I do think it'll be tougher to get a RF than a 1b. I have a feeling Bloom will be focusing on a guy who can do both, which is why I expect him to go after Garrett Cooper from Miami. They need another RH reliever to go with Houck, Whitlock, and Schreiber. I'd prefer it be a closer so Houck can pitch multiple innings, but it doesn't absolutely need to be a closer, although I think they'd be better off it was, but either way, it has to be a step up from what Brasier and company give them. Fix these three areas, and I don't think it takes all-star level caliber players to do so, the Sox if they stay healthy enough, should be pretty well set for October. I don't think they really need a RF or 1B. Refsnyder has been playing well enough to justify starting. RSS tweeted that he had the highest xwOBA in the majors over the past month. If he starts in RF most days, with JBJ sprinkled in against righties, I feel good about that. As for 1B, Cordero has a 77th percentile xwOBA. He's been unlucky to be the middling producer he is and his bat more than justifies the glove. His defense has been bad, but he's still roughly Dalbec tier. He has -1 OAA and -3 DRS in 64 attempts at 1B. Dalbec is at 0 OAA and -4 DRS in 122 attempts. Bobby's been learning for longer, so Franchy is more likely to improve a bit there. Franchy's lefty splits aren't great, but I'd have no problem with a guy like Arroyo getting more ABs against righties. I wouldn't say no to an impact position player - every team can use one - but I don't think the current team really has holes either, especially once Kiké can come back. I'd be more interested in pitching depth, although that problem could solve itself too when our half dozen injured SP come back. You're banking on things with questionable likelihoods. Cordero is an awful 1b. He'd probably be better off in RF. Maybe the luck evens out or whatever but his track record is being a mediocre player and his numbers right now are so-so. I'm not convinced a breakout is right around the corner. It wouldn't shock me if one was but I wouldn't count on it. I'd prefer somebody with a better track record. Refsnyder has no track record of being a regular. The Sox have spotted him against lefties and he's done well. At this point he has convinced me he can be a guy worthy of being on a post-season roster who can platoon against lefties, but sticking him in as an everyday RF and expecting him to succeed is questionable. Maybe he and Cordero can form a solid platoon in RF. That could work. I don't expect the Sox to come away with both a 1b and RF. But I certainly wouldn't count on Hernandez at this point. He's having serious hip issues. I wouldn't be shocked if he wound up on the 60 day IL. He tried to play in AAA and had a setback. He's nowhere near being ready. I'm not saying they need to gut they system for an all-star, but they do need to lengthen the lineup with some certainty and there are 1b/rf option out there via trade. I'd be surprised if Bloom got neither a RF or 1b in a deal.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 12, 2022 9:14:21 GMT -5
And Josh Bell is just sitting there.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 12, 2022 9:22:26 GMT -5
And Josh Bell is just sitting there. And he's not the only one. There's Aguilar and Cooper in Miami. There's Cron in Colorado. Walker in Arizona. That's just off the top of my head. I'm sure there's more than can help the Sox that won't cost too much in a deal.
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 12, 2022 9:30:13 GMT -5
I don't think they really need a RF or 1B. Refsnyder has been playing well enough to justify starting. RSS tweeted that he had the highest xwOBA in the majors over the past month. If he starts in RF most days, with JBJ sprinkled in against righties, I feel good about that. As for 1B, Cordero has a 77th percentile xwOBA. He's been unlucky to be the middling producer he is and his bat more than justifies the glove. His defense has been bad, but he's still roughly Dalbec tier. He has -1 OAA and -3 DRS in 64 attempts at 1B. Dalbec is at 0 OAA and -4 DRS in 122 attempts. Bobby's been learning for longer, so Franchy is more likely to improve a bit there. Franchy's lefty splits aren't great, but I'd have no problem with a guy like Arroyo getting more ABs against righties. I wouldn't say no to an impact position player - every team can use one - but I don't think the current team really has holes either, especially once Kiké can come back. I'd be more interested in pitching depth, although that problem could solve itself too when our half dozen injured SP come back. You're banking on things with questionable likelihoods. Cordero is an awful 1b. He'd probably be better off in RF. Maybe the luck evens out or whatever but his track record is being a mediocre player and his numbers right now are so-so. I'm not convinced a breakout is right around the corner. It wouldn't shock me if one was but I wouldn't count on it. I'd prefer somebody with a better track record. Refsnyder has no track record of being a regular. The Sox have spotted him against lefties and he's done well. At this point he has convinced me he can be a guy worthy of being on a post-season roster who can platoon against lefties, but sticking him in as an everyday RF and expecting him to succeed is questionable. Maybe he and Cordero can form a solid platoon in RF. That could work. I don't expect the Sox to come away with both a 1b and RF. But I certainly wouldn't count on Hernandez at this point. He's having serious hip issues. I wouldn't be shocked if he wound up on the 60 day IL. He tried to play in AAA and had a setback. He's nowhere near being ready. I'm not saying they need to gut they system for an all-star, but they do need to lengthen the lineup with some certainty and there are 1b/rf option out there via trade. I'd be surprised if Bloom got neither a RF or 1b in a deal. If we're going off the eye test, I'll still take Cordero over Dalbec at 1B. Cordero was young and had terrible injury luck before coming to Boston and he was still just slightly below league average in his offensive production. He's healthy now, in his prime, and has more experience under his belt. It makes sense that his numbers would improve a bit. He's always had the tools.
Refsnyder's success is more out of the blue, but he has maintained it over a decent sample size. His OPS in 182 PA in Worcester this year is .952. His OPS in 80 PA in Boston this year is .957. He plays above average defense in RF too, so he wouldn't be useless even if his bat regresses a bit.
I'm not counting on Hernandez, but we don't have to. Especially given his bat so far this year, I see him as potential utility depth. The team as currently constructed has a player at every position that has been producing. JBJ and Dalbec are the only two who really haven't been (and Dalbec on both sides of the ball), but they're mostly bench players. I'm not panicking over the bench being a bit thin when we're down two great utility guys in Arroyo and Hernandez. If we add any position players, then, I would prefer it to be a platoonable utility type. That kind of player would be useful without the high price tag.
The lineup is already long and the offense has been good. Even with the bats being ice cold for the first month of the season the Sox are 4th in the majors in runs scored. The offense has been humming since April.
The issue over the past two weeks or so has been pitching, as can be expected with six starting pitchers injured, and that issue should resolve itself with time as I've pointed out. Adding new players on either side of the ball to improve depth is a decent idea. I don't think we need a starting-caliber player on either side of the ball, though. If the value is good, sure, anyone can use an impact player, but the value proposition at the deadline is usually terrible. I don't think it's worth paying a heavy premium to fill holes that don't really exist. Adding starting-caliber players is one way to improve depth, but so is adding platoon players. The latter likely won't carry the same inflated cost.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 12, 2022 9:49:42 GMT -5
And Josh Bell is just sitting there. And he's not the only one. There's Aguilar and Cooper in Miami. There's Cron in Colorado. Walker in Arizona. That's just off the top of my head. I'm sure there's more than can help the Sox that won't cost too much in a deal. Them + Mancini is pretty much it, if you're looking for a first baseman. But I'm not sure if anyone other than Bell and Mancini are going to be available; the others have multiple years of control and their teams may think they can try to compete next season (delusionally, in the case of Colorado). Aguilar, I guess, has just a mutual option for next season, but he's scarcely even really an improvement on Dalbec. For that matter, Baltimore may hold on to Mancini if they stay on the edge of the playoff race.
Of course if everyone was like "omg we have to get a first baseman to replace Dalbec, anything short of that is total failure" and then Bloom went a totally different direction at the trade deadline, it wouldn't be the first time.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 12, 2022 10:07:57 GMT -5
If Duran was playing like Dalbec he would of been in Aaa by now.
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Post by stevedillard on Jul 12, 2022 10:09:32 GMT -5
If Duran was playing like Dalbec he would of been in Aaa by now. any major leaguer
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Post by incandenza on Jul 12, 2022 10:18:49 GMT -5
If Duran was playing like Dalbec he would of been in Aaa by now. He's hit .214/.250/.357 in July, a 65 wRC+.
Small sample, but I worry opponents remembered how to pitch to him again and he's back to where he was last season.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 12, 2022 10:32:34 GMT -5
Not to pile on Dalbec, but I think his poor fielding at first is likely understated by the metrics, especially OAA. They don't capture missed picks/catches (unless those are called an error) and I can think of multiple times he's missed a ball a better first baseman would have turned into an out. Franchy's the same.
I'm not actually sure how he compares to other first basemen around the league in terms of catch radius/value added or lost there, so maybe other 1Bs with the same OAA are the same at catching balls around the bag too, but just an observation I was thinking about. It's also possible this is a super small issue anyways and I'm being biased by a couple bed memories.
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Post by philip on Jul 12, 2022 10:37:38 GMT -5
By getting Bell you can have options next year in trying to keep him or JD as DH when casas is ready.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 12, 2022 10:56:09 GMT -5
Jim Bowden suggested Bell for Dalbec and Chris Murphy today
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 12, 2022 10:57:16 GMT -5
Jim Bowden suggested Bell for Dalbec and Chris Murphy today And you do that deal in a Cocaine Heartbeat.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 12, 2022 11:01:09 GMT -5
By getting Bell you can have options next year in trying to keep him or JD as DH when casas is ready. Both Bell and JD will be FAs and I'm not sure Chaim is intreseted in having a full-time DH. I think AC would also like the flexibility of rotating guys through DH, especially Xander (if he re-signs) and Raffy, to keep them fresh and to get Downs's glove in the field more often.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 12, 2022 11:01:22 GMT -5
Jim Bowden suggested Bell for Dalbec and Chris Murphy today I've long said that I wish Bowden was a GM again so the Sox could pick his pockets clean and give up almost nothing.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 12, 2022 11:02:04 GMT -5
Jim Bowden suggested Bell for Dalbec and Chris Murphy today Well, that rules out that possibility...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 12, 2022 11:08:41 GMT -5
And he's not the only one. There's Aguilar and Cooper in Miami. There's Cron in Colorado. Walker in Arizona. That's just off the top of my head. I'm sure there's more than can help the Sox that won't cost too much in a deal. Them + Mancini is pretty much it, if you're looking for a first baseman. But I'm not sure if anyone other than Bell and Mancini are going to be available; the others have multiple years of control and their teams may think they can try to compete next season (delusionally, in the case of Colorado). Aguilar, I guess, has just a mutual option for next season, but he's scarcely even really an improvement on Dalbec. For that matter, Baltimore may hold on to Mancini if they stay on the edge of the playoff race.
Of course if everyone was like "omg we have to get a first baseman to replace Dalbec, anything short of that is total failure" and then Bloom went a totally different direction at the trade deadline, it wouldn't be the first time.
Yes, you're a bigger believer in Dalbec than a lot of us. So noted. Maybe he will have one spectacular month that will balance out the rest of his season before becoming a pumpkin again.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 12, 2022 11:15:28 GMT -5
Them + Mancini is pretty much it, if you're looking for a first baseman. But I'm not sure if anyone other than Bell and Mancini are going to be available; the others have multiple years of control and their teams may think they can try to compete next season (delusionally, in the case of Colorado). Aguilar, I guess, has just a mutual option for next season, but he's scarcely even really an improvement on Dalbec. For that matter, Baltimore may hold on to Mancini if they stay on the edge of the playoff race.
Of course if everyone was like "omg we have to get a first baseman to replace Dalbec, anything short of that is total failure" and then Bloom went a totally different direction at the trade deadline, it wouldn't be the first time.
Yes, you're a bigger believer in Dalbec than a lot of us. So noted. Maybe he will have one spectacular month that will balance out the rest of his season before becoming a pumpkin again. I'm not saying anything about Dalbec here, I'm just noting what Bloom's MO has been.
As for that Bowden proposal, I'll just note that that's more than they sent to Washington for a comparable player last year, albeit one who was injured at the time.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 12, 2022 11:20:45 GMT -5
Jim Bowden suggested Bell for Dalbec and Chris Murphy today I've long said that I wish Bowden was a GM again so the Sox could pick his pockets clean and give up almost nothing. It's a little more than what I'd like to see for two months of Bell. 4+ years of Dalbec by itself should git 'er done.
Of course, the prices for lower-level trade targets always tend to be inflated by the media. It's only the Berrios or Castillo types that bring in huge packages, just like in free agency now.
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