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7/11-7/14 Red Sox @ Rays Series Thread
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 14, 2022 21:12:57 GMT -5
At least Darwinzon didnt implode.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 14, 2022 21:13:31 GMT -5
That was a brutal game for Cora. If you are gunna go with Plawecki, Downs etc., why not try to get Verdugo to third and pray for a sac fly? You could let Franchy bunt, then gave Cvaz hit for Plawecki. I don’t know. If you really think Dalbec and Downs are going to get a *hit* to score that run, you are more optimistic than I am. The counterexample here is not that persuasive to me. Getting one hit out of Vazquez, Plawecki, or Dalbec sounds like a better bet to me than having Franchy execute a bunt and then getting a hit, etc. Vazquez, in particular, is a good hitter to have up with a runner on 2nd given his prpensity to shoot singles the other way.
You fight the war with the soldiers you have, and I'd say injuries + a roster that is a bit questionable at one or two positions is the culprit here.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 14, 2022 21:16:18 GMT -5
Playoff odds down to 54%
How high do they need to be on August 2nd to turn down the massive prospect haul?
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Post by incandenza on Jul 14, 2022 21:16:25 GMT -5
This team could well be better to close out the year, even without trade deadline improvements, than at any point so far this year. Sale + Paxton alone is a huge deal, not to mention getting the rest of our injured starters back. They suck at the moment, managerial malpractice aside, because the starting rotation has been mostly AAA depth for 2+ weeks and meanwhile we're facing only likely playoff teams. The position side of the ball is a complete mess. Devers is hurt and playing through a bad back. Kiké is out indefinitely. Too many players playing out of position like Franchy and Duran. All you have is Verdugo, Devers, JDM, Xander, and Vazquez who might be due for a regression ( haven't checked his BABip numbers but I'm sure they agree).xwOBA of .330, wOBA of .324. It doesn't really take longer to look that up than it took for you to speculate erroneously...
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Post by incandenza on Jul 14, 2022 21:24:14 GMT -5
Playoff odds down to 54% How high do they need to be on August 2nd to turn down the massive prospect haul? This is becoming an interesting question. The kind of weird situation is that their schedule is pretty tough through the trade deadline:
@nyy x3 TOR x3 CLE x4 MIL x3 @hou x2
But then it's not so bad the rest of the way after that (so long as you haven't completely given up hope on the chance that they could beat a divisional rival one of these days); their only non-divisional opponents are KC (twice), ATL, PIT, MIN, and CIN. So it's easy to imagine them being, say, 2 games out at the deadline yet still having a good shot at making the playoffs. What then? In this new world, how much does a team sacrifice to be the third wild card?
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Post by manfred on Jul 14, 2022 21:25:28 GMT -5
That was a brutal game for Cora. If you are gunna go with Plawecki, Downs etc., why not try to get Verdugo to third and pray for a sac fly? You could let Franchy bunt, then gave Cvaz hit for Plawecki. I don’t know. If you really think Dalbec and Downs are going to get a *hit* to score that run, you are more optimistic than I am. The counterexample here is not that persuasive to me. Getting one hit out of Vazquez, Plawecki, or Dalbec sounds like a better bet to me than having Franchy execute a bunt and then getting a hit, etc. Vazquez, in particular, is a good hitter to have up with a runner on 2nd given his prpensity to shoot singles the other way.
You fight the war with the soldiers you have, and I'd say injuries + a roster that is a bit questionable at one or two positions is the culprit here.
Well, I say that only because Franchy looked good bunting before, and then Cvaz can just fly out (one hopes). But the situation was grim overall.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,646
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Post by cdj on Jul 14, 2022 21:27:21 GMT -5
Seemed really obvious to me to have somebody up for if Kutter allowed a guy to get on in the 7th. I guess not.
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Post by manfred on Jul 14, 2022 21:29:13 GMT -5
It is funny how DOB keeps talking about how many starts the rookies have made of late… which *sounds* like a good reason for a bad stretch… yet they have been doing the job. If the rookie pitchers were getting bombed, it’d be one thing. But they’ve risen to occasion.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,646
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Post by cdj on Jul 14, 2022 21:30:21 GMT -5
It is funny how DOB keeps talking about how many starts the rookies have made of late… which *sounds* like a good reason for a bad stretch… yet they have been doing the job. If the rookie pitchers were getting bombed, it’d be one thing. But they’ve risen to occasion. Pivetta’s had the least competitive start of the entire stretch
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 14, 2022 21:33:40 GMT -5
Playoff odds down to 54% How high do they need to be on August 2nd to turn down the massive prospect haul? This is becoming an interesting question. The kind of weird situation is that their schedule is pretty tough through the trade deadline:
@nyy x3 TOR x3 CLE x4 MIL x3 @hou x2
But then it's not so bad the rest of the way after that (so long as you haven't completely given up hope on the chance that they could beat a divisional rival one of these days); their only non-divisional opponents are KC (twice), ATL, PIT, MIN, and CIN. So it's easy to imagine them being, say, 2 games out at the deadline yet still having a good shot at making the playoffs. What then? In this new world, how much does a team sacrifice to be the third wild card?
Worth noting that the Sox should be looking at abnormally large returns for giving up - seems like a big time seller's market, and they have a lot to sell. If JD was their only free agent, you'd just go for it no matter what because who cares about getting back the #17 prospect in the system or whatever.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,940
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 14, 2022 21:34:45 GMT -5
Maybe Darwinzon has evolved since last we saw him! I have reasonable doubt about that. He had 18 BBs in 23 IP in Worcester. Damn, I meant 18 BBs, not 18 K's, as I said in the original post. I'm having a worse night than Cora. But at least I was able to fix my mistake. His is in the books forever.
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Post by benzinger on Jul 14, 2022 21:35:33 GMT -5
do you really think that this team deserves to make the playoffs? they haven't won one stinking series against the east rivals and this one will be swept. does that sound like a team that can compete in the playoffs? Ztop reaching for rainbows for the 3rd wildcard spot. from what I have seen there would be no excitement to what has been suggested. they suck pure and simple. Just the best movie!!
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Post by redsox43 on Jul 14, 2022 21:35:41 GMT -5
The position side of the ball is a complete mess. Devers is hurt and playing through a bad back. Kiké is out indefinitely. Too many players playing out of position like Franchy and Duran. All you have is Verdugo, Devers, JDM, Xander, and Vazquez who might be due for a regression ( haven't checked his BABip numbers but I'm sure they agree).xwOBA of .330, wOBA of .324. It doesn't really take longer to look that up than it took for you to speculate erroneously... Not a fan of those two stats. They carry some weight, but not to the degree it gets pronounced here. Vazquez is producing at a high average, without high power numbers. That's why I speculated.
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Post by benzinger on Jul 14, 2022 21:38:08 GMT -5
Could be worse: Jays are losing to the Royals’ AAA team. No. I’m not sure it can get worse than being swept 4 games in Tampa.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,940
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 14, 2022 21:41:46 GMT -5
This is becoming an interesting question. The kind of weird situation is that their schedule is pretty tough through the trade deadline:
@nyy x3 TOR x3 CLE x4 MIL x3 @hou x2
But then it's not so bad the rest of the way after that (so long as you haven't completely given up hope on the chance that they could beat a divisional rival one of these days); their only non-divisional opponents are KC (twice), ATL, PIT, MIN, and CIN. So it's easy to imagine them being, say, 2 games out at the deadline yet still having a good shot at making the playoffs. What then? In this new world, how much does a team sacrifice to be the third wild card?
Worth noting that the Sox should be looking at abnormally large returns for giving up - seems like a big time seller's market, and they have a lot to sell. If JD was their only free agent, you'd just go for it no matter what because who cares about getting back the #17 prospect in the system or whatever. Now at a 2 percent chance to win the WS, according to FG, and that will probably be lower by the time the deadline comes. Think about the difference between the system they'll have if they decide to buy at the deadline and the system they could have if they decide to sell. Are we willing to sacrifice the delta between the two when we have such a remote chance of winning the WS? To me, it's all about Eovaldi. JDM could bring something worthwhile if they heavily subsidize him. X has a NTC, so we don't even know if he's tradeable. But Nate could bring a solid prospect.
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Post by redsox43 on Jul 14, 2022 21:41:53 GMT -5
This is becoming an interesting question. The kind of weird situation is that their schedule is pretty tough through the trade deadline:
@nyy x3 TOR x3 CLE x4 MIL x3 @hou x2
But then it's not so bad the rest of the way after that (so long as you haven't completely given up hope on the chance that they could beat a divisional rival one of these days); their only non-divisional opponents are KC (twice), ATL, PIT, MIN, and CIN. So it's easy to imagine them being, say, 2 games out at the deadline yet still having a good shot at making the playoffs. What then? In this new world, how much does a team sacrifice to be the third wild card?
Worth noting that the Sox should be looking at abnormally large returns for giving up - seems like a big time seller's market, and they have a lot to sell. If JD was their only free agent, you'd just go for it no matter what because who cares about getting back the #17 prospect in the system or whatever. Eovaldi and Vazquez should take calls for sure. They'd get interest. Xander is interesting, but he'd need to approve trade. Doesn't sound like ownership wants to extend him with low-ball offer in spring training. Verdugo might be your best chip to get immediate prospects, without hinting that Devers is available. JDM doesn't sound like a good trade chip. Would have to pay his whole salary, and even then a guy like Josh Bell might be the better option because he can play a position.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,940
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 14, 2022 21:42:47 GMT -5
Could be worse: Jays are losing to the Royals’ AAA team. No. I’m not sure it can get worse than being swept 4 games in Tampa. You doing anything this weekend? You might want to tune in.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 14, 2022 21:43:10 GMT -5
xwOBA of .330, wOBA of .324. It doesn't really take longer to look that up than it took for you to speculate erroneously... Not a fan of those two stats. They carry some weight, but not to the degree it gets pronounced here. Vazquez is producing at a high average, without high power numbers. That's why I speculated. Well what you actually said was something about BABIP, which is .322, vs. a career .304, so not very out of line or anything. And his ISO is also close to his career average (.010 higher, but you'd expect it to be a bit higher at his age).
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Post by philip on Jul 14, 2022 21:46:06 GMT -5
Bell 2 hits including a HR. Batting 300. Price is going up.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 14, 2022 21:47:22 GMT -5
popped a hammy trying to act 30 years younger and the Sox blow a lead. Bad night fellas.
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Post by rico6 on Jul 14, 2022 21:52:15 GMT -5
No. I’m not sure it can get worse than being swept 4 games in Tampa. You doing anything this weekend? You might want to tune in. The Sox will be fine this weekend unless the MFYs are hitting 330' homers (not sure why the Sox can't take advantage of that park) and/or the umpiring favoring the home team.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 14, 2022 21:55:09 GMT -5
You doing anything this weekend? You might want to tune in. The Sox will be fine this weekend unless the MFYs are hitting 330' homers ( not sure why the Sox can't take advantage of that park) and/or the umpiring favoring the home team. I am willing to believe it's not just Yankees players who hit homers into the first row in RF every freakin night in that idiotic stadium, but it sure seems that way. Does anyone have stats on this?
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Post by benzinger on Jul 14, 2022 21:59:12 GMT -5
No. I’m not sure it can get worse than being swept 4 games in Tampa. You doing anything this weekend? You might want to tune in. Hey, the most they can lose in NY is 3 games, at least.
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Post by benzinger on Jul 14, 2022 22:00:38 GMT -5
Are we allowed to be negative tonight? What does Sox Prozac Nation say about this? I just want to make sure I follow the rules.
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Post by tizzle on Jul 14, 2022 22:14:36 GMT -5
Are we allowed to be negative tonight? What does Sox Prozac Nation say about this? I just want to make sure I follow the rules. I don't know. But I tuned into the NESN postgame show to see what they thought and immediately got hit by them all scoffing at any questioning of Cora's managing, then I thought "oh, yeah, these guys are worthless. I am almost forgot" and turned it off.
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