SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
7/15-7/17 Red Sox @ Yankees Series Thread
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 16, 2022 22:41:28 GMT -5
Disagree. The Sox are 19-7 when they have an XBA over 300 this year. They are also 1-10 when below 200. On the pitching side, they are 11-2 when holding opponents under 200 XBA. The one “outlier” would be that they are 7-8 when the opponent is over 300 XBA, but if you lower that to 280, they are 9-20. I’m not gonna do the research on it, but I’d imagine tonight is one of the most extreme outliers in the sport based on batted ball data this year But there is a real abstraction to it. Carpenter’s shot was only out in Yankee stadium. But, you know, they are *playing* in Yankee stadium, so it is anecdotal amusing to say, wow, short porch, but saying that means something (low xBA etc) doesn’t mean that much. Add: it is like saying a kicker who misses a 40-yard FG in wind and rain missed something he’d make x% of the time. Yeah.. except ghe wind and rain changes everything. It is abstract, and it's not an excuse for wins and loses, but can't you see it helps contextualize what happened? I think the issue that people really have with these stats is the way others interpret them, not the stats themselves. If I play softball and hit three line-drive scorchers at the third baseman, I'm going to be walking away feeling different about my swing than if I instead had 2 dribblers that barely snuck between the third-baseman and shortstop. Until someone tells me that hitting it right at the third baseman vs. 2 feet above him or to the right is a skill, I'm going to consider myself unlucky that night. Tonight was a strange one in the statcast data: - 21 balls hit higher than 100 MPH, we had 10 of them. 9 above 103 MPH, we had 5 of them - We had 10 at bats against Ryan Weber, not a single swing-and-miss, 6 balls came off the bat at 100 MPH or higher, and it took us until there were 2 outs in the ninth for us to get a hit off him.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Jul 16, 2022 23:01:28 GMT -5
But there is a real abstraction to it. Carpenter’s shot was only out in Yankee stadium. But, you know, they are *playing* in Yankee stadium, so it is anecdotal amusing to say, wow, short porch, but saying that means something (low xBA etc) doesn’t mean that much. Add: it is like saying a kicker who misses a 40-yard FG in wind and rain missed something he’d make x% of the time. Yeah.. except ghe wind and rain changes everything. It is abstract, and it's not an excuse for wins and loses, but can't you see it helps contextualize what happened? I think the issue that people really have with these stats is the way others interpret them, not the stats themselves. If I play softball and hit three line-drive scorchers at the third baseman, I'm going to be walking away feeling different about my swing than if I instead had 2 dribblers that barely snuck between the third-baseman and shortstop. Until someone tells me that hitting it right at the third baseman vs. 2 feet above him or to the right is a skill, I'm going to consider myself unlucky that night. Tonight was a strange one in the statcast data: - 21 balls hit higher than 100 MPH, we had 10 of them. 9 above 103 MPH, we had 5 of them - We had 10 at bats against Ryan Weber, not a single swing-and-miss, 6 balls came off the bat at 100 MPH or higher, and it took us until there were 2 outs in the ninth for us to get a hit off him. No, I totally get that, and I’m fine with that. I mean, that is effectively the eye test. Guy hitting ropes vs. piddly groundouts. But I’d say , for example, being a pull hitter in Yankee stadium is a skill. So carpenter’s homer being a low xBA is deceptive. Or at least sort of irrelevant (everyone has the same fence). I’d be curious to know about Verdugo’s grounder right up the middle. I mean, historically that is obviously a hit. With the shift, it is right into it. How does that get measured?
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Jul 16, 2022 23:19:15 GMT -5
Playoff odds: 50.6%
|
|
|
Post by stevedillard on Jul 17, 2022 7:29:28 GMT -5
Though there's only a 10% chance of that.
I am a Chaim supporter in concept, including that this is a longer term rebuild. But his strategy to fill the roster at the outset was questionable, and once it became clear that it was failing, his delay/inability to adjust and fill holes at lower cost (like the Schwarber trade last year) is infuriating. Perhaps he is waiting for teams to decide they are sellers, but ground is being lost. And it is embarrassing. Tinker on the margins (if you consider 1B and RF to be margins), like the Yankees did with Gallo/Carpenter. I hate the new everyone makes the playoffs, so stop trying during the regular season view that probably underlies all of his inaction.
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Jul 17, 2022 8:10:14 GMT -5
We have a .305 xBA this game. 1 run on 2 hits. NYY has a .317 xBA this game. 10 runs on 9 hits. Classic. Due to CONSTANT outliers, it’s almost as if xBA is not a meaningful stat to draw any real conclusions. It's a perfectly meaningful stat. Last night, it says our results were much worse than they typically would be given the quality of contact made. Games like last night are inevitable given the sample sizes at play, but they are still unlucky. Last night we finished with a .306 xBA and a .100 BA. That's the difference between going ~9/30 and 3/30. Some nights you are going to hit balls right at people and you're going to barrel up balls to the deepest part of the ballpark and fly out instead of hitting them over the fence. This stat captures that. It's not perfect. For example, extreme pull hitters drilling balls into the shift will systematically underperform their xBA. It's still good enough to say last night was absurdly unlucky, though. Here's another visual, if you'd prefer:
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Jul 17, 2022 9:24:07 GMT -5
Due to CONSTANT outliers, it’s almost as if xBA is not a meaningful stat to draw any real conclusions. It's a perfectly meaningful stat. Last night, it says our results were much worse than they typically would be given the quality of contact made. Games like last night are inevitable given the sample sizes at play, but they are still unlucky. Last night we finished with a .306 xBA and a .100 BA. That's the difference between going ~9/30 and 3/30. Some nights you are going to hit balls right at people and you're going to barrel up balls to the deepest part of the ballpark and fly out instead of hitting them over the fence. This stat captures that. It's not perfect. For example, extreme pull hitters drilling balls into the shift will systematically underperform their xBA. It's still good enough to say last night was absurdly unlucky, though. Here's another visual, if you'd prefer: Disagree. I am in plenty of these game threads and these xBA discrepancies are all I see in every inning of every game. It turns out that hard hit balls get caught and little dribblers become hits and that’s how the game works. Statistically, this is an unreliable predictor of outcomes. If you used a similar model in investing, for example, you would throw it out right away(because you would quickly go broke). I’d take this whole concept more seriously if the outliers were much more rare.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 17, 2022 10:11:44 GMT -5
You know it's typical for folks to bring up the xBA metric when it's an outlier? That doesn't mean it's constantly producing outliers.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 17, 2022 10:45:21 GMT -5
Well, I'd say when the Sox outscore their opponent during the game they are undefeated, but when they get outscored during a game by their opponent, they are winless. Amazing how that works And if you don't believe me you can look it up.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Jul 17, 2022 11:25:56 GMT -5
Looking at today’s lineup has me hallucinating… David Byrne is singing “Well, how did we get here?” on repeat into my ear.
Franchy, Downs, JBJ, and Verdugo are mired beneath the bWAR Mendoza line. Duran, at .1, will likely join them soon at the rate he’s going. Luckily, they have Dalbec ready to pinch hit if necessary.
It is good that the staff is getting healthy, because they are going to have to carry this team.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Jul 17, 2022 12:01:52 GMT -5
Looking at today’s lineup has me hallucinating… David Byrne is singing “Well, how did we get here?” on repeat into my ear. Franchy, Downs, JBJ, and Verdugo are mired beneath the bWAR Mendoza line. Duran, at .1, will likely join them soon at the rate he’s going. Luckily, they have Dalbec ready to pinch hit if necessary. It is good that the staff is getting healthy, because they are going to have to carry this team. Team is still 7th in runs, 8th in wOBA. Get some guys healthy for the stretch, add a 1B or OF at the deadline, the offense is still top tier even despite that. I also don’t think grouping Verdugo in with those guys offensively is fair, he’s a much better hitter than any of the rest of them.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Jul 17, 2022 12:03:52 GMT -5
Would be really curious to see xBA/BA (and xSLG/SLG) splits home vs. away by team. I wonder if the Yankees really did do a great job building for their park.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Jul 17, 2022 12:25:46 GMT -5
Looking at today’s lineup has me hallucinating… David Byrne is singing “Well, how did we get here?” on repeat into my ear. Franchy, Downs, JBJ, and Verdugo are mired beneath the bWAR Mendoza line. Duran, at .1, will likely join them soon at the rate he’s going. Luckily, they have Dalbec ready to pinch hit if necessary. It is good that the staff is getting healthy, because they are going to have to carry this team. Team is still 7th in runs, 8th in wOBA. Get some guys healthy for the stretch, add a 1B or OF at the deadline, the offense is still top tier even despite that. I also don’t think grouping Verdugo in with those guys offensively is fair, he’s a much better hitter than any of the rest of them. Just listing sub-zero bWARs. He’s -0.4. Pretty rough year. Add: and he is better *than them* — but I think it might be time to accept that he is not very good. He has certainly been good in some big moments, but overall, he has a 104 career OPS+ — and that is relatively stable. He is sort of a poor man’s Benintendi.
|
|
|
Post by stevedillard on Jul 17, 2022 12:26:49 GMT -5
When JBJ makes you yearn for the days of Paul Blair
|
|
|
Post by station13 on Jul 17, 2022 12:28:07 GMT -5
When JBJ makes you yearn for the days of Darren Lewis Last 30 days for JBJ: .100/.169/.133 A .302 OPS. DFA, Released, etc
|
|
|
Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 17, 2022 12:33:32 GMT -5
I know they said Whitlock would need a day off for every inning pitched, but he has to be available today right? Even if it’s just for an inning
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Jul 17, 2022 12:40:29 GMT -5
Team is still 7th in runs, 8th in wOBA. Get some guys healthy for the stretch, add a 1B or OF at the deadline, the offense is still top tier even despite that. I also don’t think grouping Verdugo in with those guys offensively is fair, he’s a much better hitter than any of the rest of them. Just listing sub-zero bWARs. He’s -0.4. Pretty rough year. Add: and he is better *than them* — but I think it might be time to accept that he is not very good. He has certainly been good in some big moments, but overall, he has a 104 career OPS+ — and that is relatively stable. He is sort of a poor man’s Benintendi. Since coming to the Red Sox by fWAR he’s been roughly twice as valuable as Benintendi has in that same time range. wRC+ advantage goes to Benny by 5 points. He’s also been getting terribly unlucky so far this year and Benintendi has been overperforming so my guess is that the gal widens in Verdugo’s favor by end of the year. Completely disagree with the poor man’s Benny take.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
|
Post by nomar on Jul 17, 2022 12:44:23 GMT -5
Devers needs to tee off now
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Jul 17, 2022 12:44:31 GMT -5
I would not be eager to step in on Sale after Cole came at Raffy.
|
|
|
Post by greenmonster on Jul 17, 2022 12:55:24 GMT -5
I would not be eager to step in on Sale after Cole came at Raffy. would have preferred he hit him some place other than the big toe
|
|
|
Post by soxfanatic on Jul 17, 2022 12:57:40 GMT -5
Really annoying start to this game....
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Jul 17, 2022 12:58:25 GMT -5
If Matt Carpenter finishes the game with an OPS above 1400 then Im' going to return this baseball season to the store I bought it from
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Jul 17, 2022 12:59:31 GMT -5
It is one thing to have guys hurt, even to have some bad seasons… but the number of times the Sox have simply been fundamentally bad of late is so frustrating.
|
|
|
Post by stevedillard on Jul 17, 2022 13:00:36 GMT -5
Really annoying start to this game.... Start or end? With this lineup, its pretty much over when you have three and a half impotent players (Duran/Cordeiro/Downs/JBJ)
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Jul 17, 2022 13:01:45 GMT -5
So does anyone on the bench mention to Rafi that two of the three pitches he swing at were significantly out of the zone and that she should’ve been 3-0 on the first strike he saw? Or is that not a thing?
|
|
|
Post by GyIantosca on Jul 17, 2022 13:01:56 GMT -5
Talk about no luck.
I just think Sale is cursed somehow. I just don’t know.
|
|
|