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7/15-7/17 Red Sox @ Yankees Series Thread
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Post by patford on Jul 17, 2022 17:58:02 GMT -5
People on here complaining about JBJ when Bogaerts is basically Andrew Benintendi are hard to fathom.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 17, 2022 18:04:36 GMT -5
I would really love to see what people think Bloom should have done in the offseason that would have A our entire starting rotation from April is/was on the IL resulting in the Sox using a starting rotation made up entire of AAA players at one point Xander and JDM having a huge power outage during the first half of this season when compared to the first half of last year, and there were weeks where it was pretty much Devers carrying the team to a win because the 8 other bats in the lineup were all ice cold... Thats not including injures to our offense (kikė for example) Xander: 2021 VS JDM: VS It sure looks like JD is showing a decline…..glad his 5 years are up (he has been tremendous during his years in Boston). Also, the second half or last year and 1st half of this year for X do not look like a $30,000,000 a year player…. That said I hope he returns, but where he plays (not SS), and how much he makes, makes for an uncomfortable fit.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 17, 2022 18:20:01 GMT -5
Roger Ebert, among others, had a good notion about the proper role of the critic: judge a movie based on what it's trying to do, not whether you particularly like the goal. (Maybe you don't like action bloackbusters, but you have to admit Speed is really good at accomplishing what such movies are trying to accomplish.) What Bloom has tried to do is build a team that is consistently competitive, which means building a strong major league roster while simultaneously adding depth in the farm system. YMMV, but I think he's done a real good job of that, considering what an inherently tricky gambit that is. But if you think prospects aren't that important and the team should always be in go-for-it-now mode, or else that they should pursue a rebuild-and-teardown cycle like the Astros or Orioles, then you're going to be disappointed as long as he's the GM.
1. I love Speed, and several other blockbusters, but there are dozens more, including some famous franchises I've never seen and hope not to because you can feel the banality oozing through them. Different conversation for a different time. 2. The Sox would've had to give up zero prospects to get some high-value free agents in the last off-season. Sure, you'd have the first level penalty for going over, but that's not tragic if you can win now, continue to build the farm and reset after this year again. 3. I don't buy into the good intentions framing of Bloom's actions. By that logic, all 30 GMs should be kept on in perpetuity because they are doing their best and what they think is the best way to make their team competitive. That doesn't mean their process or methods are sound. Or as William Blake said, "The road to hell is paved with good intentions." 4. Criticizing team construction is not outcoming for those who haven't bought into the process. I know many here have an "In Bloom we trust" outlook, but I'm a skeptic by nature and was brought up to believe that trust is earned. And to be honest, I am still trying to figure out Bloom's process. We all know you have to have a good farm to have sustained success. But we all also know that you don't need to tank to get that (see Dodgers, L.A. and to a certain degree the Astros since they've started winning, even after shedding some big time stars from their tanking days). I can't tell if Bloom's trying to build the Dodgers East or some hybrid, but to date I've not see actions that clearly point to either. He inherited a solid MLB core (Xander, Devers, JDM, Eovaldi, Vazquez) and several good MiLB players who've gone on to hit the top 10 or even graduated (Casas, Bello, Walter, Mata, Duran, Rafaela, Murphy). He's had some good trades (Workman for Pivetta alone was a magic trick) but also bad (Benitendi 3.8 fWAR since the trade for Franchy -0.6 and Winckowski 0.3, and Renfoe 1.0fWAR for JBJ 0.8 fWAR). During the winter I asked when people here thought Bloom's plan would hit its stride and this team would become a legit repeat contender. The consensus seemed to be 2024. If that happens, yeah, I'll trust Bloom. Til then, I 'll wait and see his results. A lot of this is just difference of opinion or perspective, which is fine, and I don't really want to litigate Bloom's entire regime. But I do want to flag this point about his process. I think it's perfectly clear what the process is, and yeah, the Dodgers are a good model for it. Bloom is never going to do a tank/rebuild (which no team with Boston's money should ever do), and he's never going to sell the farm to go all in at any point (beyond normal deadline deals). He's going to spend up to, and sometimes over, the CBT every season in an effort to field a contender. And he's going to make some marginal moves that don't directly benefit the major league roster if he thinks it adds overall value to the long-term health of the team (a la the Renfroe-JBJ deal). He says this all publicly all the time, and it's a consistent pattern in how he's managed the roster, and I don't know why it would be mysterious to anyone.
UNRELATED POINT NOT DIRECTED AT GUIDAS: The criticisms of Xander in this thread are insane. He's 11th in the majors in positional fWAR. And if the power is down, don't you think there's a pretty good chance that a health issue is involved? Unless a player is in their decline phase (he's clearly not) there's really no other reason for power to fall off a cliff. And we know that collision with Verdugo affected him for a while after the fact...
And anyways, despite that... he's 11th in the majors in WAR!
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,940
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 17, 2022 18:45:58 GMT -5
Oh, come on, man. A few days ago, you were questioning why he didn't Daniel Vogelbach, a guy who came into this season with exactly .1 WAR since first hitting The Show in 2016. Now you're knocking him for spaghetti throwing? I think it's too early to judge Bloom. I think he wants to get the farm system producing a nice crop of talent annually and get out of some bad contracts. That will let him shop for more expensive spaghetti. It's easy to get frustrated and start throwing about whack-a-doodle comments when we're getting our asses handed to us by the MFY. But let's not act like they finished 61-101 last year and are out of it at the AS break this year. But 61-101 is about the win % they have against the AL Easy this year. I wonder how many of us work in places that say “year four? Too early to evaluate this employee.” Where are you getting year four from? He was hired in October 2019, right? He's short of three years in the job. But I'll play the silly game you set up. Any large company that hired a new executive to get it out of a rut would shower raises, bonuses and stock on that exec if he/she made the company one of the four best in its industry in less than two years. If you're in the CS, you're one of the four best. My analogy is as trite and meaningless as yours. Running baseball ops for an MLB - particularly one in Boston - is a bit different than being just another "employee" sitting in a cubicle.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,940
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 17, 2022 18:52:17 GMT -5
Bloom’s in year 3. By my count 2020 and 2021 went about as perfectly to his plan as you could reasonably have hoped. Thus far this year hasn’t yet, but there’s still time, and I just can’t believe the reactionary he should be fired. Aside from that I haven’t seen really any great proposals for what he should have done this off-season that would truly strengthen the teams position, aside from “spend more money” which if he and unlimited budget I’m sure he would have. As I’ve said before A) I think it is unfair to say you can’t criticize if you couldn’t do better. We aren’t GMs, but we can see bad play. B) I don’t think limiting it to this past off-season is enough, either. The OF has been progressively weakened for a few years. First base has been a problem since Moreland left. etc etc. The bolded is not true. The 2021 OF far outperformed the killer B's - all of whom left town under Bloom - for a lot less AAV and fewer years of commitment. The WAR comparison has been posted on here several times and you keep choosing to ignore it.
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Post by manfred on Jul 17, 2022 18:54:31 GMT -5
As I’ve said before A) I think it is unfair to say you can’t criticize if you couldn’t do better. We aren’t GMs, but we can see bad play. B) I don’t think limiting it to this past off-season is enough, either. The OF has been progressively weakened for a few years. First base has been a problem since Moreland left. etc etc. The bolded is not true. The 2021 OF far outperformed the killer B's - all of whom left town under Bloom - for a lot less AAV and fewer years of commitment. The WAR comparison has been posted on here several times and you keep choosing to ignore it. How does that comp look now? Was it a step towards annual competitiveness? Only if you assume money saved goes to player X sometime in the future. Fingers crossed!
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Post by manfred on Jul 17, 2022 18:55:21 GMT -5
But 61-101 is about the win % they have against the AL Easy this year. I wonder how many of us work in places that say “year four? Too early to evaluate this employee.” Where are you getting year four from? He was hired in October 2019, right? He's short of three years in the job. But I'll play the silly game you set up. Any large company that hired a new executive to get it out of a rut would shower raises, bonuses and stock on that exec if he/she made the company one of the four best in its industry in less than two years. If you're in the CS, you're one of the four best. My analogy is as trite and meaningless as yours. Running baseball ops for an MLB - particularly one in Boston - is a bit different than being just another "employee" sitting in a cubicle. I forgot there was a year between DD and Bloom. Mea culpa.
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Post by manfred on Jul 17, 2022 18:56:31 GMT -5
1. I love Speed, and several other blockbusters, but there are dozens more, including some famous franchises I've never seen and hope not to because you can feel the banality oozing through them. Different conversation for a different time. 2. The Sox would've had to give up zero prospects to get some high-value free agents in the last off-season. Sure, you'd have the first level penalty for going over, but that's not tragic if you can win now, continue to build the farm and reset after this year again. 3. I don't buy into the good intentions framing of Bloom's actions. By that logic, all 30 GMs should be kept on in perpetuity because they are doing their best and what they think is the best way to make their team competitive. That doesn't mean their process or methods are sound. Or as William Blake said, "The road to hell is paved with good intentions." 4. Criticizing team construction is not outcoming for those who haven't bought into the process. I know many here have an "In Bloom we trust" outlook, but I'm a skeptic by nature and was brought up to believe that trust is earned. And to be honest, I am still trying to figure out Bloom's process. We all know you have to have a good farm to have sustained success. But we all also know that you don't need to tank to get that (see Dodgers, L.A. and to a certain degree the Astros since they've started winning, even after shedding some big time stars from their tanking days). I can't tell if Bloom's trying to build the Dodgers East or some hybrid, but to date I've not see actions that clearly point to either. He inherited a solid MLB core (Xander, Devers, JDM, Eovaldi, Vazquez) and several good MiLB players who've gone on to hit the top 10 or even graduated (Casas, Bello, Walter, Mata, Duran, Rafaela, Murphy). He's had some good trades (Workman for Pivetta alone was a magic trick) but also bad (Benitendi 3.8 fWAR since the trade for Franchy -0.6 and Winckowski 0.3, and Renfoe 1.0fWAR for JBJ 0.8 fWAR). During the winter I asked when people here thought Bloom's plan would hit its stride and this team would become a legit repeat contender. The consensus seemed to be 2024. If that happens, yeah, I'll trust Bloom. Til then, I 'll wait and see his results. A lot of this is just difference of opinion or perspective, which is fine, and I don't really want to litigate Bloom's entire regime. But I do want to flag this point about his process. I think it's perfectly clear what the process is, and yeah, the Dodgers are a good model for it. Bloom is never going to do a tank/rebuild (which no team with Boston's money should ever do), and he's never going to sell the farm to go all in at any point (beyond normal deadline deals). He's going to spend up to, and sometimes over, the CBT every season in an effort to field a contender. And he's going to make some marginal moves that don't directly benefit the major league roster if he thinks it adds overall value to the long-term health of the team (a la the Renfroe-JBJ deal). He says this all publicly all the time, and it's a consistent pattern in how he's managed the roster, and I don't know why it would be mysterious to anyone.
UNRELATED POINT NOT DIRECTED AT GUIDAS: The criticisms of Xander in this thread are insane. He's 11th in the majors in positional fWAR. And if the power is down, don't you think there's a pretty good chance that a health issue is involved? Unless a player is in their decline phase (he's clearly not) there's really no other reason for power to fall off a cliff. And we know that collision with Verdugo affected him for a while after the fact...
And anyways, despite that... he's 11th in the majors in WAR!
And the other thing about X is he is playing well in a year when he nay well be traded, is likely playing next to his replacement etc. and he’s been a total pro.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Jul 17, 2022 18:57:35 GMT -5
1. I love Speed, and several other blockbusters, but there are dozens more, including some famous franchises I've never seen and hope not to because you can feel the banality oozing through them. Different conversation for a different time. 2. The Sox would've had to give up zero prospects to get some high-value free agents in the last off-season. Sure, you'd have the first level penalty for going over, but that's not tragic if you can win now, continue to build the farm and reset after this year again. 3. I don't buy into the good intentions framing of Bloom's actions. By that logic, all 30 GMs should be kept on in perpetuity because they are doing their best and what they think is the best way to make their team competitive. That doesn't mean their process or methods are sound. Or as William Blake said, "The road to hell is paved with good intentions." 4. Criticizing team construction is not outcoming for those who haven't bought into the process. I know many here have an "In Bloom we trust" outlook, but I'm a skeptic by nature and was brought up to believe that trust is earned. And to be honest, I am still trying to figure out Bloom's process. We all know you have to have a good farm to have sustained success. But we all also know that you don't need to tank to get that (see Dodgers, L.A. and to a certain degree the Astros since they've started winning, even after shedding some big time stars from their tanking days). I can't tell if Bloom's trying to build the Dodgers East or some hybrid, but to date I've not see actions that clearly point to either. He inherited a solid MLB core (Xander, Devers, JDM, Eovaldi, Vazquez) and several good MiLB players who've gone on to hit the top 10 or even graduated (Casas, Bello, Walter, Mata, Duran, Rafaela, Murphy). He's had some good trades (Workman for Pivetta alone was a magic trick) but also bad (Benitendi 3.8 fWAR since the trade for Franchy -0.6 and Winckowski 0.3, and Renfoe 1.0fWAR for JBJ 0.8 fWAR). During the winter I asked when people here thought Bloom's plan would hit its stride and this team would become a legit repeat contender. The consensus seemed to be 2024. If that happens, yeah, I'll trust Bloom. Til then, I 'll wait and see his results. A lot of this is just difference of opinion or perspective, which is fine, and I don't really want to litigate Bloom's entire regime. But I do want to flag this point about his process. I think it's perfectly clear what the process is, and yeah, the Dodgers are a good model for it. Bloom is never going to do a tank/rebuild (which no team with Boston's money should ever do), and he's never going to sell the farm to go all in at any point (beyond normal deadline deals). He's going to spend up to, and sometimes over, the CBT every season in an effort to field a contender. And he's going to make some marginal moves that don't directly benefit the major league roster if he thinks it adds overall value to the long-term health of the team (a la the Renfroe-JBJ deal). He says this all publicly all the time, and it's a consistent pattern in how he's managed the roster, and I don't know why it would be mysterious to anyone.
UNRELATED POINT NOT DIRECTED AT GUIDAS: The criticisms of Xander in this thread are insane. He's 11th in the majors in positional fWAR. And if the power is down, don't you think there's a pretty good chance that a health issue is involved? Unless a player is in their decline phase (he's clearly not) there's really no other reason for power to fall off a cliff. And we know that collision with Verdugo affected him for a while after the fact...
And anyways, despite that... he's 11th in the majors in WAR!
The recent Xander criticism is a hilarious mirror of all the stuff from last season and this winter when people were pulling their hair out over his poor defensive metrics...even though those metrics were already baked into his near-elite WAR. He was a poor defender last year, yet remained an excellent player. He's been a poor home run hitter this year, yet remains an excellent player. He's not in the top 20 things wrong with this team.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jul 17, 2022 19:07:29 GMT -5
Xander has an uncanny ability to exceed his xwOBA year-after-year, at this point it's got to be a skill that statcast isn't picking up (ability to hit to a certain location?).
While results have held up this year, his statcast metrics are predominantly down this year. Not dramatically, but enough to make for a challenging decision for the team to make since we're likely looking at a demand of 8/240.
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Post by patford on Jul 17, 2022 19:42:53 GMT -5
Xander has an uncanny ability to exceed his xwOBA year-after-year, at this point it's got to be a skill that statcast isn't picking up (ability to hit to a certain location?). While results have held up this year, his statcast metrics are predominantly down this year. Not dramatically, but enough to make for a challenging decision for the team to make since we're likely looking at a demand of 8/240. I doubt anyone thinks Bogaerts is a bum or isn't making a full effort. He's a decent defender for a SS and hits for a good average without power. Those are the reasons some don't think he is worth a tremendous amount of money over a long term deal.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 17, 2022 21:30:06 GMT -5
What a devastating last week.
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Post by benzinger on Jul 17, 2022 23:03:48 GMT -5
12-26 against the AL East this season is unthinkable and unacceptable. Halfway through the season, it’s hard to take this team seriously.
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Post by benzinger on Jul 17, 2022 23:05:33 GMT -5
Xander has an uncanny ability to exceed his xwOBA year-after-year, at this point it's got to be a skill that statcast isn't picking up (ability to hit to a certain location?). While results have held up this year, his statcast metrics are predominantly down this year. Not dramatically, but enough to make for a challenging decision for the team to make since we're likely looking at a demand of 8/240. He’s not worth that kind of money. Especially when he’ll be on the wrong side of 30. They already have a better SS under contract anyway. Chaim needs to take that $30m and get to work patching other holes.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 18, 2022 21:03:11 GMT -5
Xander has an uncanny ability to exceed his xwOBA year-after-year, at this point it's got to be a skill that statcast isn't picking up (ability to hit to a certain location?). While results have held up this year, his statcast metrics are predominantly down this year. Not dramatically, but enough to make for a challenging decision for the team to make since we're likely looking at a demand of 8/240. He’s not worth that kind of money. Especially when he’ll be on the wrong side of 30. They already have a better SS under contract anyway. Chaim needs to take that $30m and get to work patching other holes. 100% totally agree! The Red Sox can patch holes and give some to Devers so that he remains with the Red Sox.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,940
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 18, 2022 21:17:19 GMT -5
He’s not worth that kind of money. Especially when he’ll be on the wrong side of 30. They already have a better SS under contract anyway. Chaim needs to take that $30m and get to work patching other holes. 100% totally agree! The Red Sox can patch holes and give some to Devers so that he remains with the Red Sox. There's no way CB offers X either $30M in AAV or eight years in length. Red Sox Stats had a good piece last year that put X's value at about 6 years and $150M, as I recall. That's about where I am. Every dollar or year above that is a step toward albatross territory. My complaint is that there is no public information indicating that CB has made any serious effort to keep X.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 18, 2022 21:25:40 GMT -5
Our team sucks and you guys want to let our most consistent player as best SS in team history walk over money with all that money coming off the books. Yeah you be complaining even more next year. If we’re going to overpay anyone it should be Xander Bogaerts.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 19, 2022 22:30:08 GMT -5
100% totally agree! The Red Sox can patch holes and give some to Devers so that he remains with the Red Sox. There's no way CB offers X either $30M in AAV or eight years in length. Red Sox Stats had a good piece last year that put X's value at about 6 years and $150M, as I recall. That's about where I am. Every dollar or year above that is a step toward albatross territory. My complaint is that there is no public information indicating that CB has made any serious effort to keep X. It would be disingenuous to make an offer that Bloom really does not want him to accept. Kudos to Bloom. If Bogaerts wants to stay let him start by accepting a move to a new position. I wonder how Bogaerts would look on LF. I hope it is a hell of a lot better than Hanley Ramirez.
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