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7/15-7/17 Red Sox @ Yankees Series Thread
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Post by billw on Jul 17, 2022 16:04:40 GMT -5
the ORT is the primary elementary particle of all matter in the universe--but perhaps not the primary building block of a bullpen
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Post by manfred on Jul 17, 2022 16:05:39 GMT -5
I was really a Duran guy, but I am losing hope. His D is brutal, and his bat just doesn’t look good enough. I haven’t totally given up, but I am really worried.
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Post by reasonabledoubt on Jul 17, 2022 16:10:11 GMT -5
What would the record for Ks be if Clemens could have pitched to this lineup?
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Post by incandenza on Jul 17, 2022 16:21:33 GMT -5
This is almost the opposite of the truth. They have one of the deepest farm systems in the game (52 ranked prospects per fangraphs, to go by that metric, which is the third most in the game); but they only have 4 50 FV or better prospects, which is like 12th.
I know you're on record as saying that you don't care about prospect depth, but I'll just note that neither Houck nor Whitlock were ever ranked as 50 FV and I think they've both been helpful. And then of course Devers and Mookie - and Yorke or Bello for that matter - didn't start out at 50 FV either...
I am not on record as saying I don’t care about depth. But I certainly don’t value it for its own sake. When I say top heavy, what I mean is that in the top-20, there are a couple guys near the top who could be central to a new, great roster. After that, there are guys who might be small pieces if the major talent comes from elsewhere… or org guys. The Mookie and Devers stuff is still silly. They were raking in the majors at a younger age than a lot of the guys in the top 20. Bello didn’t start that way because he was a child. Yorke was a first-round pick. Do you think anyone cares about depth for depth's sake? Of course not. The point is that more depth ultimately leads to more major league success. This is because some of the depth turns into really good players. Just look at any of this site's rankings history; there's usually like 1-2 guys in the 10-20 range at any given time who turn into valuable major leaguers. Sometimes they turn into stars. And the more depth you have, the more often that's likely to happen.
So you say there might be small pieces in the top 20 outside the top 4. Well, there might be all-stars in there too. There's probably at least one major league regular. You have no idea.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2022 16:49:58 GMT -5
Sale will go down as the worst contract ever signed by the Red Sox. That is my take from the game.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,646
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Post by cdj on Jul 17, 2022 16:52:52 GMT -5
Sale will go down as the worst contract ever signed by the Red Sox. That is my take from the game. Sandoval is worse.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,646
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Post by cdj on Jul 17, 2022 16:54:01 GMT -5
They were two games from the WS last year ffs, you guys are acting like they’ve been bottom-feeding. A reality check is needed. They also made the playin game on the last day of the season. It isn't like they were a power. Idrc, they were the last team standing in the best sports division on the planet
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 17, 2022 16:55:46 GMT -5
What would the record for Ks be if Clemens could have pitched to this lineup? more than 20, but less than 27…..lol
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Post by Guidas on Jul 17, 2022 16:58:53 GMT -5
So, shows up to work on time, says all the right non-commital, banal, obtuse things politely to the media, brings doughnuts for everyone, does the perfunctory things well, had perhaps the best player in amateur baseball last year fall in his lap, but the stuff that really matters, he's...uh...um. Don't worry, folks. He's only your chief executive and "vision guy." Also: "Trust the process" was a phrase originated by the Philadelphia Seventy Sixers. And they are still losers. But, hey, great process. Roger Ebert, among others, had a good notion about the proper role of the critic: judge a movie based on what it's trying to do, not whether you particularly like the goal. (Maybe you don't like action bloackbusters, but you have to admit Speed is really good at accomplishing what such movies are trying to accomplish.) What Bloom has tried to do is build a team that is consistently competitive, which means building a strong major league roster while simultaneously adding depth in the farm system. YMMV, but I think he's done a real good job of that, considering what an inherently tricky gambit that is. But if you think prospects aren't that important and the team should always be in go-for-it-now mode, or else that they should pursue a rebuild-and-teardown cycle like the Astros or Orioles, then you're going to be disappointed as long as he's the GM.
1. I love Speed, and several other blockbusters, but there are dozens more, including some famous franchises I've never seen and hope not to because you can feel the banality oozing through them. Different conversation for a different time. 2. The Sox would've had to give up zero prospects to get some high-value free agents in the last off-season. Sure, you'd have the first level penalty for going over, but that's not tragic if you can win now, continue to build the farm and reset after this year again. 3. I don't buy into the good intentions framing of Bloom's actions. By that logic, all 30 GMs should be kept on in perpetuity because they are doing their best and what they think is the best way to make their team competitive. That doesn't mean their process or methods are sound. Or as William Blake said, "The road to hell is paved with good intentions." 4. Criticizing team construction is not outcoming for those who haven't bought into the process. I know many here have an "In Bloom we trust" outlook, but I'm a skeptic by nature and was brought up to believe that trust is earned. And to be honest, I am still trying to figure out Bloom's process. We all know you have to have a good farm to have sustained success. But we all also know that you don't need to tank to get that (see Dodgers, L.A. and to a certain degree the Astros since they've started winning, even after shedding some big time stars from their tanking days). I can't tell if Bloom's trying to build the Dodgers East or some hybrid, but to date I've not see actions that clearly point to either. He inherited a solid MLB core (Xander, Devers, JDM, Eovaldi, Vazquez) and several good MiLB players who've gone on to hit the top 10 or even graduated (Casas, Bello, Walter, Mata, Duran, Rafaela, Murphy). He's had some good trades (Workman for Pivetta alone was a magic trick) but also bad (Benitendi 3.8 fWAR since the trade for Franchy -0.6 and Winckowski 0.3, and Renfoe 1.0fWAR for JBJ 0.8 fWAR). During the winter I asked when people here thought Bloom's plan would hit its stride and this team would become a legit repeat contender. The consensus seemed to be 2024. If that happens, yeah, I'll trust Bloom. Til then, I 'll wait and see his results.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 17, 2022 17:00:24 GMT -5
Sale will go down as the worst contract ever signed by the Red Sox. That is my take from the game. “worst” meaning least production and innings or maybe highest cost per inning….either way DD (did great in his first 3 years) deserved to be fired for the Sale contract all by itself
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Post by incandenza on Jul 17, 2022 17:05:04 GMT -5
This is a bit crazy. Eovaldi turned out to be a bargain. Pierce hardly broke the bank. He was not even a Garrett Richards. Sale was a miss. But I don’t think that was a move most GMs wouldn’t make. The Price deal was likely the biggest killer of the last 10 years. It may have helped get a title… but maybe not. Overall, though, it was a brutal anchor. Eovaldi's at 7.7 bWAR & 6.6 fWAR so far for $68 million. I've heard varying average $ per WAR figures for the FA market, but I haven't heard any that would put this into "bargain" territory. Best I've heard, $9 million / WAR is a decent FA estimate, and if assume Nate gets to ~ 8 WAR by the end of the year, he's been just about average over his deal. I also think extending Sale a year early for big money when he'd had a history of his arm breaking down by the ends of seasons was a mistake. Hindsight is 20/20, but that has been a disaster of a deal so far. I straight up blame Dombrowski for this one. Sale's velocity was dropping alarmingly at the end of the season before he got extended, and like you say, that extension was given a year in advance. Really poor decision there.
This is definitely hindsight on *my* part - I liked it at the time I think - but I didn't know the velocity thing at the time, and Dombrowski should have.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 17, 2022 17:09:28 GMT -5
Roger Ebert, among others, had a good notion about the proper role of the critic: judge a movie based on what it's trying to do, not whether you particularly like the goal. (Maybe you don't like action bloackbusters, but you have to admit Speed is really good at accomplishing what such movies are trying to accomplish.) What Bloom has tried to do is build a team that is consistently competitive, which means building a strong major league roster while simultaneously adding depth in the farm system. YMMV, but I think he's done a real good job of that, considering what an inherently tricky gambit that is. But if you think prospects aren't that important and the team should always be in go-for-it-now mode, or else that they should pursue a rebuild-and-teardown cycle like the Astros or Orioles, then you're going to be disappointed as long as he's the GM.
1. I love Speed, and several other blockbusters, but there are dozens more, including some famous franchises I've never seen and hope not to because you can feel the banality oozing through them. Different conversation for a different time. 2. The Sox would've had to give up zero prospects to get some high-value free agents in the last off-season. Sure, you'd have the first level penalty for going over, but that's not tragic if you can win now, continue to build the farm and reset after this year again. 3. I don't buy into the good intentions framing of Bloom's actions. By that logic, all 30 GMs should be kept on in perpetuity because they are doing their best and what they think is the best way to make their team competitive. That doesn't mean their process or methods are sound. Or as William Blake said, "The road to hell is paved with good intentions." 4. Criticizing team construction is not outcoming for those who haven't bought into the process. I know many here have an "In Bloom we trust" outlook, but I'm a skeptic by nature and was brought up to believe that trust is earned. And to be honest, I am still trying to figure out Bloom's process. We all know you have to have a good farm to have sustained success. But we all also know that you don't need to tank to get that (see Dodgers, L.A. and to a certain degree the Astros since they've started winning, even after shedding some big time stars from their tanking days). I can't tell if Bloom's trying to build the Dodgers East or some hybrid, but to date I've not see actions that clearly point to either. He inherited a solid MLB core (Xander, Devers, JDM, Eovaldi, Vazquez) and several good MiLB players who've gone on to hit the top 10 or even graduated (Casas, Bello, Walter, Mata, Duran, Rafaela, Murphy). He's had some good trades (Workman for Pivetta alone was a magic trick) but also bad (Benitendi 3.8 fWAR since the trade for Franchy -0.6 and Winckowski 0.3, and Renfoe 1.0fWAR for JBJ 0.8 fWAR). During the winter I asked when people here thought Bloom's plan would hit its stride and this team would become a legit repeat contender. The consensus seemed to be 2024. If that happens, yeah, I'll trust Bloom. Til then, I 'll wait and see his results. Agreed, Bloom needed to sign a RF starter and RHRP high leverage in the FA market which would have cost no prospects. The Red Sox have needed hitting all year outside of Devers, X, and JD… Bloom had the opportunity to make 2022 a more competitive team than it is without signing a lot of long term contracts, but they did not come (especially RF). Refsnyder has been good SSS, but counting on a full JBJ rebound was a low percentage move. Maybe Bloom was counting on Casas at 1B, but there was and is not enough position players depth the highest 2 levels unless Bloom was going to right off 2022 as a year where lots of prospects get experience at the MLB level. The prospects need experience at the MLB level, but I wish Bloom had a little more depth to help the transition.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,646
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Post by cdj on Jul 17, 2022 17:18:23 GMT -5
They weren’t gonna go out and sign a bunch of established high priced free agents to go way over the luxury tax threshold
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 17, 2022 17:27:08 GMT -5
They weren’t gonna go out and sign a bunch of established high priced free agents to go way over the luxury tax threshold That is not what I said or expected. I was and am totally in on the one year contracts for Wacha, Hill, and letting Eovaldi walk while Bello, Winckowski, Crawford, Murphy, Mata, Ward, Walter, and German gain experience! There just is not enough close position players to replace JD, X, Hernandez, and Vazquez. I absolutely do not want a bunch of high priced, past their prime free agents (like a few other frequent posters on this site), but a little more depth was certainly warranted.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 17, 2022 17:27:42 GMT -5
Sale will go down as the worst contract ever signed by the Red Sox. That is my take from the game. “worst” meaning least production and innings or maybe highest cost per inning….either way DD (did great in his first 3 years) deserved to be fired for the Sale contract all by itself Probably, especially considering who was coming on the market that upcoming off-season.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 17, 2022 17:31:07 GMT -5
I was really a Duran guy, but I am losing hope. His D is brutal, and his bat just doesn’t look good enough. I haven’t totally given up, but I am really worried. I still think they should stop trying to be the smartest guys in the room with the "let's maximize his speed and turn him into an outfielder" and turn him back to a second baseman, which he's been most of his life. He was at least competent there in college. Some infielders just can't make that transition. It's a lot more than just running around fast (obviously).
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 17, 2022 17:37:21 GMT -5
Playoff odds: 42%
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Post by patford on Jul 17, 2022 17:42:54 GMT -5
Sale will go down as the worst contract ever signed by the Red Sox. That is my take from the game. “worst” meaning least production and innings or maybe highest cost per inning….either way DD (did great in his first 3 years) deserved to be fired for the Sale contract all by itself He's been a disaster. He produced half a season in the first half of a season. He got huge money and highly ranked prospects were exchanged for him. Total disaster and you could see it coming as he was clearly heading for Tommy John even while with the White Sox. Not to mention he's 6'11" and weighs 123 lbs. bleacherreport.com/articles/2037473-chris-sale-hits-dl-with-arm-problems-sox-look-for-answers-on-aces-injury"...Sale will get an injection of platelet rich plasma (PRP), which is a common treatment for many athletic injuries..." "There's also plenty of talk about Sale's rail-thin frame and his awkward mechanics. It's the same frame and mechanics that caused teams to red flag him in the draft..." " (There's some debate as to whether the flexor mass is "elbow" or "forearm," ..."
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Post by Guidas on Jul 17, 2022 17:43:15 GMT -5
Sale will go down as the worst contract ever signed by the Red Sox. That is my take from the game. Sandoval is worse. In recent memory: Price - although lauded at the time, ended up being an albatross (and a clear violation of the Mr. Brian Kenny rules™ for signing pitchers) Sale extension (especially when he had yet to prove he wasn't back from injury) SandovalCrawfordRenteriaLugoAlso, deciding that Adrian Beltre just "responded to Fenway" and that his better days were behind him was also a big miss by Theo as a non-signing, especially when Beltre wanted to stay.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 17, 2022 17:44:17 GMT -5
I was really a Duran guy, but I am losing hope. His D is brutal, and his bat just doesn’t look good enough. I haven’t totally given up, but I am really worried. I still think they should stop trying to be the smartest guys in the room with the "let's maximize his speed and turn him into an out-fielder" and turn him back to a second baseman, which he's been most of his life. He was at least competent there in college. Some infielders just can't make that transition. It's a lot more than just running around fast (obviously). I never saw the reasoning in leaving JBJ in RF after Hernandez got hurt. Having Duran in CF (when he is not a good CF and probably will not ever be) makes no sense. Cora’s decisions have cost games. (Same with Arroyo at SS and Story at 2nd). Cora’s managing in 2022 has seemed to be in large degree more about prepping for 2023, than 2022.
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Post by cba82 on Jul 17, 2022 17:44:23 GMT -5
Who of Duran, Cordero and Dalbec will still be on the 26-man roster on Friday?
I’d be willing to give Christin Stewart and Ryan Fitzgerald shots.
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Post by patford on Jul 17, 2022 17:44:55 GMT -5
I was really a Duran guy, but I am losing hope. His D is brutal, and his bat just doesn’t look good enough. I haven’t totally given up, but I am really worried. I still think they should stop trying to be the smartest guys in the room with the "let's maximize his speed and turn him into an outfielder" and turn him back to a second baseman, which he's been most of his life. He was at least competent there in college. Some infielders just can't make that transition. It's a lot more than just running around fast (obviously). He can't hit either. The ship has sailed.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 17, 2022 17:45:12 GMT -5
They weren’t gonna go out and sign a bunch of established high priced free agents to go way over the luxury tax threshold Instead, will they sign a bunch of lesser high-priced free agents this off-season but stay under?
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 17, 2022 17:45:29 GMT -5
I would really love to see what people think Bloom should have done in the offseason that would have A our entire starting rotation from April is/was on the IL resulting in the Sox using a starting rotation made up entire of AAA players at one point Xander and JDM having a huge power outage during the first half of this season when compared to the first half of last year, and there were weeks where it was pretty much Devers carrying the team to a win because the 8 other bats in the lineup were all ice cold... Thats not including injures to our offense (kikė for example) Xander: 2021 VS JDM: VS
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Post by manfred on Jul 17, 2022 17:54:29 GMT -5
I would really love to see what people think Bloom should have done in the offseason that would have A our entire starting rotation from April is/was on the IL resulting in the Sox using a starting rotation made up entire of AAA players at one point Xander and JDM having a huge power outage during the first half of this season when compared to the first half of last year, and there were weeks where it was pretty much Devers carrying the team to a win because the 8 other bats in the lineup were all ice cold... Thats not including injures to our offense (kikė for example) Xander: 2021 VS JDM: VS Look not to downplay injury, but if you sign Wacha and Hill, you can’t be thinking you are locking down 30 starts apiece. Signing cheap and fragile guys is a pattern.
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