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7/15-7/17 Red Sox @ Yankees Series Thread
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,646
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Post by cdj on Jul 17, 2022 15:25:25 GMT -5
Ppl are acting like this injury is Chris sale being fragile, he got smoked. Literally zero ppl aren’t breaking their finger on that. Just awful luck.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 17, 2022 15:25:48 GMT -5
Looks like the Rays, Blue Jays, White Sox, and Mariners are going to win today.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 17, 2022 15:25:52 GMT -5
I wanted to bring back Schwarber too, but we're like 3-4 years away from knowing whether that really would have been a better investment than Story. So like you said, it's an incomplete grade - but I don't see how you can blame him for that.
I don't think with Schwarber it should have been an either/or with Story. The contract he signed was at JDM AAV so it would have been net zero impact to the CBT for 2023-2025. With hindsight we know the team is over the CBT for 2022, so why not go over a bit more to lock in 23-25? But now we're getting into hypotheticals around whether they had a goal to be at or near the luxury tax this year. If there was a target, that's an issue. If there wasn't, not signing Schwarber comes into question. I guess I'll want to see what they do with the money freed up by JD leaving before I decide whether Schwarber would have been the optimal use of it in 2023-25.
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briam
Veteran
Posts: 1,180
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Post by briam on Jul 17, 2022 15:26:37 GMT -5
I think a lot of posters here are acting like we lost this series 1-20 instead of 1-2. The team will re-group and play the second half. Let the chips fall where they may. Typically this is where I fall but it’s July 17th and they’ve yet to win a single series against the AL East. When the majority of the remaining schedule is the AL East it’s hard to imagine this turning around.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jul 17, 2022 15:27:26 GMT -5
Roger Ebert, among others, had a good notion about the proper role of the critic: judge a movie based on what it's trying to do, not whether you particularly like the goal. (Maybe you don't like action bloackbusters, but you have to admit Speed is really good at accomplishing what such movies are trying to accomplish.) What Bloom has tried to do is build a team that is consistently competitive, which means building a strong major league roster while simultaneously adding depth in the farm system. YMMV, but I think he's done a real good job of that, considering what an inherently tricky gambit that is. But if you think prospects aren't that important and the team should always be in go-for-it-now mode, or else that they should pursue a rebuild-and-teardown cycle like the Astros or Orioles, then you're going to be disappointed as long as he's the GM.
Well, it seems that âstrong rosterâ is getting pretty mixed reviews. Mayer was, indeed, a product of the Astros/Orioles plan, since they effectively threw 2020. I am very excited about Mayer. But much of that depth is meh. For all the movement, the system remains very top heavy (with most of the most exciting guys â besides Mayer â inherited). I get what you are saying, but I think even judging on what they are shooting for, the record is shaky. Hopefully they draft well today, maybe they have a good mix of selling and adding to accomplish both goals⦠but after four years, Bloom needs to get some real traction in the next year or two. And he is going to be faced with a potential talent drain that will be hard to make up for in a short time. It's hard to be critical of the depth. The depth in the starting pitching this year has easily netted them a handful of wins, maybe two. Last year, the low-dollar free agency contract signings were fantastic. They really built out their batting depth in the 4-7 spots in the lineup with Kiké and Renfroe. It's also hard to ding the FO for all the regression that's occurred so far, none of us expected that. Entering the season with JBJ as the starting RF, yes that's questionable. Blaming them for the regression and the injuries, no.
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Post by terriblehondo on Jul 17, 2022 15:27:30 GMT -5
They were two games from the WS last year ffs, you guys are acting like they’ve been bottom-feeding. A reality check is needed. They also made the playin game on the last day of the season. It isn't like they were a power.
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Post by terriblehondo on Jul 17, 2022 15:29:55 GMT -5
I think a lot of posters here are acting like we lost this series 1-20 instead of 1-2. The team will re-group and play the second half. Let the chips fall where they may. Typically this is where I fall but it’s July 17th and they’ve yet to win a single series against the AL East. When the majority of the remaining schedule is the AL East it’s hard to imagine this turning around. I agree with this watching them play the East has been brutal.
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Post by manfred on Jul 17, 2022 15:31:49 GMT -5
Well, it seems that âstrong rosterâ is getting pretty mixed reviews. Mayer was, indeed, a product of the Astros/Orioles plan, since they effectively threw 2020. I am very excited about Mayer. But much of that depth is meh. For all the movement, the system remains very top heavy (with most of the most exciting guys â besides Mayer â inherited). I get what you are saying, but I think even judging on what they are shooting for, the record is shaky. Hopefully they draft well today, maybe they have a good mix of selling and adding to accomplish both goals⦠but after four years, Bloom needs to get some real traction in the next year or two. And he is going to be faced with a potential talent drain that will be hard to make up for in a short time. It's hard to be critical of the depth. The depth in the starting pitching this year has easily netted them a handful of wins, maybe two. Last year, the low-dollar free agency contract signings were fantastic. They really built out their batting depth in the 4-7 spots in the lineup with Kiké and Renfroe. It's also hard to ding the FO for all the regression that's occurred so far, none of us expected that. Entering the season with JBJ as the starting RF, yes that's questionable. Blaming them for the regression and the injuries, no. Their best rookie starter, Crawford, was here. Their new closer, Houck, was here. Bello was here. So we’re talking about Winck, really. I’m not saying there haven’t been huge additions. Whitlock was a legendary heist. Schrieber is a godsend. But a good amount of the depth has been developing before Bloom.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 17, 2022 15:31:57 GMT -5
Bloom’s in year 3. By my count 2020 and 2021 went about as perfectly to his plan as you could reasonably have hoped. Thus far this year hasn’t yet, but there’s still time, and I just can’t believe the reactionary he should be fired.
Aside from that I haven’t seen really any great proposals for what he should have done this off-season that would truly strengthen the teams position, aside from “spend more money” which if he and unlimited budget I’m sure he would have.
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Post by reasonabledoubt on Jul 17, 2022 15:33:47 GMT -5
The bright side is maybe people here will finally give up on Sale. Do people even look at the guy? He's a brittle twig. As critical as people on this forum tend to be it completely befuddles me as to why Sale is placed on a pedestal. There is no bright side here. You'd rather have Rich Hill than Sale for the 2nd half? Was in a position for a victory last outing.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jul 17, 2022 15:34:19 GMT -5
I don't think with Schwarber it should have been an either/or with Story. The contract he signed was at JDM AAV so it would have been net zero impact to the CBT for 2023-2025. With hindsight we know the team is over the CBT for 2022, so why not go over a bit more to lock in 23-25? But now we're getting into hypotheticals around whether they had a goal to be at or near the luxury tax this year. If there was a target, that's an issue. If there wasn't, not signing Schwarber comes into question. I guess I'll want to see what they do with the money freed up by JD leaving before I decide whether Schwarber would have been the optimal use of it in 2023-25. That's fair, if they need the JDM money to sign Devers, then I'll walk back my comments. I feel like they could do both but maybe not. They should be able to carry 7-9 big contracts any given year but if the CBT isn't going up but the salaries are, that might get harder to do. If that's an issue, then building out depth in the system becomes even more critical. And the FO has been doing a great job in that category so far.
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Post by manfred on Jul 17, 2022 15:35:26 GMT -5
Bloom’s in year 3. By my count 2020 and 2021 went about as perfectly to his plan as you could reasonably have hoped. Thus far this year hasn’t yet, but there’s still time, and I just can’t believe the reactionary he should be fired. Aside from that I haven’t seen really any great proposals for what he should have done this off-season that would truly strengthen the teams position, aside from “spend more money” which if he and unlimited budget I’m sure he would have. As I’ve said before A) I think it is unfair to say you can’t criticize if you couldn’t do better. We aren’t GMs, but we can see bad play. B) I don’t think limiting it to this past off-season is enough, either. The OF has been progressively weakened for a few years. First base has been a problem since Moreland left. etc etc.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Jul 17, 2022 15:37:32 GMT -5
The Yankees have the flexibility to throw out any lineup out there and there is no dropoff in the scoring. they have the ridiculous balance that the Sox wish they had. The Sox are woefully short in mixing and matching. Xander and JDM are very high in total base hits, but very low in RBI's. This team may or may not scrape through to a wildcard,but it won't mean much in the long run. Too many holes to patch. The hope was that Casas was going to be here to solve the 1st base problem, but we know how those plans work out. JBJ's defense in right is very welcome, but a right fielder has to hit a lot better than he has. Like others have said, this isn't going to be a year of excitement for the playoffs but a year of growth of the minor leaguers to get better for next year and beyond.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 17, 2022 15:41:51 GMT -5
Please Bloom, fire sale. Prepare for next year.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 17, 2022 15:41:56 GMT -5
Bloomâs in year 3. By my count 2020 and 2021 went about as perfectly to his plan as you could reasonably have hoped. Thus far this year hasnât yet, but thereâs still time, and I just canât believe the reactionary he should be fired. Aside from that I havenât seen really any great proposals for what he should have done this off-season that would truly strengthen the teams position, aside from âspend more moneyâ which if he and unlimited budget Iâm sure he would have. As Iâve said before A) I think it is unfair to say you canât criticize if you couldnât do better. We arenât GMs, but we can see bad play. B) I donât think limiting it to this past off-season is enough, either. The OF has been progressively weakened for a few years. First base has been a problem since Moreland left. etc etc. They had a top 5 OF in baseball last year. On the other point what Iâm saying is that even with the benefit of hindsight I think itâs difficult to find a lot of clear choices that would have made them much better, other than if they had predicted Kikés injury.
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Post by manfred on Jul 17, 2022 15:44:39 GMT -5
As Iâve said before A) I think it is unfair to say you canât criticize if you couldnât do better. We arenât GMs, but we can see bad play. B) I donât think limiting it to this past off-season is enough, either. The OF has been progressively weakened for a few years. First base has been a problem since Moreland left. etc etc. They had a top 5 OF in baseball last year. On the other point what Iâm saying is that even with the benefit of hindsight I think itâs difficult to find a lot of clear choices that would have made them much better, other than if they had predicted Kikés injury. It seemed predictable that Kiké would regress, even without an injury. Not be bad, but not be as good. Trading Renfroe for JBJ had a lot of reasons, but everyone knew it, too, would weaken the OF. So it was very clear they were moving backwards.
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Post by jmei on Jul 17, 2022 15:48:12 GMT -5
There are thousands of people whose jobs depend on being able to predict outcomes slightly better than the next person. Those people seem to think that Statcast-based stats like xBA are pretty valuable. I’ll take the word of those people over, uh, some guy on the internet. Aren't we all just, uh, some guy on the internet? We might as well stop all discussion if mods are going to shut people down that way. People who run BB front offices used to think RBIs were a telling stat, too. They can be wrong, you know. Some of us are moderators on the SoxProspects.com forums (But seriously, I’m allowed to have opinions just like anyone else and you are welcome to disagree with them.)
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Post by fenwaydouble on Jul 17, 2022 15:48:58 GMT -5
They have matching 139 wRC+ figures. That’s really good, hope runs or no. Check out JDM’s first half stats last year vs this year 18 Hr 62 RBI VS This year 9HR 38 RBI Xander 15 HR 51 RBI vs 7 37 That doesnt seem like an issue to you? They are severely underperforming compared to their first half numbers from last year. No, it doesn’t seem like a big problem to me. The RBI stuff is meaningless noise, and while the power outage could be problematic moving forward, it has not kept them from producing high OBP/Slug numbers. They’ve been very good hitters this year.
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briam
Veteran
Posts: 1,180
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Post by briam on Jul 17, 2022 15:49:31 GMT -5
As Iâve said before A) I think it is unfair to say you canât criticize if you couldnât do better. We arenât GMs, but we can see bad play. B) I donât think limiting it to this past off-season is enough, either. The OF has been progressively weakened for a few years. First base has been a problem since Moreland left. etc etc. They had a top 5 OF in baseball last year. On the other point what Iâm saying is that even with the benefit of hindsight I think itâs difficult to find a lot of clear choices that would have made them much better, other than if they had predicted Kikés injury. The outfield was 5th in WAR and 8th in wRC+ and they downgraded in RF to buy prospects and hurt the major league club. I think because this is a prospects site people put too much value in the idea of prospects and constantly discount the benefit of just having good players on the major league roster regardless of their years or control/value. Renfroe is 2 wins better and a 50% better hitter than JBJ, would’ve been a huge help with this lineup. Edit: I wasn’t against trading Renfroe, but buying mediocre prospects with JBJs salary was probably the worst outcome IMO.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 17, 2022 15:50:10 GMT -5
Roger Ebert, among others, had a good notion about the proper role of the critic: judge a movie based on what it's trying to do, not whether you particularly like the goal. (Maybe you don't like action bloackbusters, but you have to admit Speed is really good at accomplishing what such movies are trying to accomplish.)
What Bloom has tried to do is build a team that is consistently competitive, which means building a strong major league roster while simultaneously adding depth in the farm system. YMMV, but I think he's done a real good job of that, considering what an inherently tricky gambit that is. But if you think prospects aren't that important and the team should always be in go-for-it-now mode, or else that they should pursue a rebuild-and-teardown cycle like the Astros or Orioles, then you're going to be disappointed as long as he's the GM.
Well, it seems that “strong roster” is getting pretty mixed reviews. Mayer was, indeed, a product of the Astros/Orioles plan, since they effectively threw 2020. I am very excited about Mayer. But much of that depth is meh. For all the movement, the system remains very top heavy (with most of the most exciting guys — besides Mayer — inherited). I get what you are saying, but I think even judging on what they are shooting for, the record is shaky. Hopefully they draft well today, maybe they have a good mix of selling and adding to accomplish both goals… but after four years, Bloom needs to get some real traction in the next year or two. And he is going to be faced with a potential talent drain that will be hard to make up for in a short time. This is almost the opposite of the truth. They have one of the deepest farm systems in the game (52 ranked prospects per fangraphs, to go by that metric, which is the third most in the game); but they only have 4 50 FV or better prospects, which is like 12th.
I know you're on record as saying that you don't care about prospect depth, but I'll just note that neither Houck nor Whitlock were ever ranked as 50 FV and I think they've both been helpful. And then of course Devers and Mookie - and Yorke or Bello for that matter - didn't start out at 50 FV either...
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 17, 2022 15:50:58 GMT -5
we’ve seen no indication he will be retaining the (arguable) best SS in baseball and the fact Devers is not signed to an extension entering his walk year is a complete and total failure. The writing seems to be on the wall for X and we know Raffy needs to be here. The other day Henry said it takes two parties to agree on a contract which is obvious. My point is Henry has numbers in mind for these players and yes I am sure Bloom has input but with regard to this part of your post, these two not being signed rests more with Henry than Bloom IMO.
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Post by patford on Jul 17, 2022 15:51:04 GMT -5
The bright side is maybe people here will finally give up on Sale. Do people even look at the guy? He's a brittle twig. As critical as people on this forum tend to be it completely befuddles me as to why Sale is placed on a pedestal. There is no bright side here. You'd rather have Rich Hill than Sale for the 2nd half? Was in a position for a victory last outing. I'd rather have just about anyone than Sale. He is never healthy and on the very rare occasions when he is he's mediocre. Not to mention he makes a ton of money. I'd like him to prove me wrong but I don't think there is even a 1% chance he will.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 17, 2022 15:53:10 GMT -5
I don't know about you guys, but I fully intend to walk away from this dumpsterfire of a game and enjoy the draft and talk myself into each and every pick being an unbelievable steal.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 17, 2022 15:57:29 GMT -5
I think a lot of posters here are acting like we lost this series 1-20 instead of 1-2. The team will re-group and play the second half. Let the chips fall where they may. I respect this, but it's a Red Sox-NYY series. Let us be crabby after being fulled with false hope on Friday.
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Post by manfred on Jul 17, 2022 15:57:30 GMT -5
Well, it seems that “strong roster” is getting pretty mixed reviews. Mayer was, indeed, a product of the Astros/Orioles plan, since they effectively threw 2020. I am very excited about Mayer. But much of that depth is meh. For all the movement, the system remains very top heavy (with most of the most exciting guys — besides Mayer — inherited). I get what you are saying, but I think even judging on what they are shooting for, the record is shaky. Hopefully they draft well today, maybe they have a good mix of selling and adding to accomplish both goals… but after four years, Bloom needs to get some real traction in the next year or two. And he is going to be faced with a potential talent drain that will be hard to make up for in a short time. This is almost the opposite of the truth. They have one of the deepest farm systems in the game (52 ranked prospects per fangraphs, to go by that metric, which is the third most in the game); but they only have 4 50 FV or better prospects, which is like 12th.
I know you're on record as saying that you don't care about prospect depth, but I'll just note that neither Houck nor Whitlock were ever ranked as 50 FV and I think they've both been helpful. And then of course Devers and Mookie - and Yorke or Bello for that matter - didn't start out at 50 FV either...
I am not on record as saying I don’t care about depth. But I certainly don’t value it for its own sake. When I say top heavy, what I mean is that in the top-20, there are a couple guys near the top who could be central to a new, great roster. After that, there are guys who might be small pieces if the major talent comes from elsewhere… or org guys. The Mookie and Devers stuff is still silly. They were raking in the majors at a younger age than a lot of the guys in the top 20. Bello didn’t start that way because he was a child. Yorke was a first-round pick.
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