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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 17, 2022 14:06:11 GMT -5
Spencer Torkelson got demoted
-1.1 WAR, worst in the majors
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 17, 2022 14:07:42 GMT -5
It's a perfectly meaningful stat. Last night, it says our results were much worse than they typically would be given the quality of contact made. Games like last night are inevitable given the sample sizes at play, but they are still unlucky. Last night we finished with a .306 xBA and a .100 BA. That's the difference between going ~9/30 and 3/30. Some nights you are going to hit balls right at people and you're going to barrel up balls to the deepest part of the ballpark and fly out instead of hitting them over the fence. This stat captures that. It's not perfect. For example, extreme pull hitters drilling balls into the shift will systematically underperform their xBA. It's still good enough to say last night was absurdly unlucky, though. Here's another visual, if you'd prefer: Disagree. I am in plenty of these game threads and these xBA discrepancies are all I see in every inning of every game. It turns out that hard hit balls get caught and little dribblers become hits and that’s how the game works. Statistically, this is an unreliable predictor of outcomes. If you used a similar model in investing, for example, you would throw it out right away(because you would quickly go broke). I’d take this whole concept more seriously if the outliers were much more rare. I don't think you understand how probability works
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Post by station13 on Jul 17, 2022 14:11:20 GMT -5
Xander is having a mediocre season. No power. Just BABIP.
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Post by manfred on Jul 17, 2022 14:11:26 GMT -5
Spencer Torkelson got demoted -1.1 WAR, worst in the majors So does that make a certain fellow sitting at -1.0 the new leader? He’s #1?!?
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Post by jmei on Jul 17, 2022 14:12:50 GMT -5
Disagree. I am in plenty of these game threads and these xBA discrepancies are all I see in every inning of every game. It turns out that hard hit balls get caught and little dribblers become hits and that’s how the game works. Statistically, this is an unreliable predictor of outcomes. If you used a similar model in investing, for example, you would throw it out right away(because you would quickly go broke). I’d take this whole concept more seriously if the outliers were much more rare. I don't think you understand how probability works There are thousands of people whose jobs depend on being able to predict outcomes slightly better than the next person. Those people seem to think that Statcast-based stats like xBA are pretty valuable. I’ll take the word of those people over, uh, some guy on the internet.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,646
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Post by cdj on Jul 17, 2022 14:16:07 GMT -5
Balls Xander
Defense matters.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 17, 2022 14:16:47 GMT -5
It’s also July 17 and we haven’t won a series against the division yet. Even the 2012 Red Sox were better at this point lol They faced some divisional teams at a really bad time health-wise and have lost in some terrible ways that makes it hurt a little extra, I’m not really hitting the panic button tho I didn’t think they were a likely World Series contender though so maybe I had lower expectations Agreed! 1) fans should not expect a World Series contender every year 2) why would a Red Sox fan expect a winning record in the 14 games against TB and NYY when missing 4 out of 5 rotation members as well as offense members. 3) I expect Bloom to make some trade to address RF/1B offense by the deadline. That in part is why Bloom has been showcasing so many AAA prospects.
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 17, 2022 14:17:23 GMT -5
Dave Dombrowski’s worst move - and what likely got him fired - wasn’t any trades or this mythical “gutting of the system.” It was resigning, Sale, Pierce and (as much as he’s been money when he’s right) Eovaldi. It continues to haunt the Red Sox. This is a bit crazy. Eovaldi turned out to be a bargain. Pierce hardly broke the bank. He was not even a Garrett Richards. Sale was a miss. But I don’t think that was a move most GMs wouldn’t make. The Price deal was likely the biggest killer of the last 10 years. It may have helped get a title… but maybe not. Overall, though, it was a brutal anchor. Eovaldi's at 7.7 bWAR & 6.6 fWAR so far for $68 million. I've heard varying average $ per WAR figures for the FA market, but I haven't heard any that would put this into "bargain" territory. Best I've heard, $9 million / WAR is a decent FA estimate, and if assume Nate gets to ~ 8 WAR by the end of the year, he's been just about average over his deal. I also think extending Sale a year early for big money when he'd had a history of his arm breaking down by the ends of seasons was a mistake. Hindsight is 20/20, but that has been a disaster of a deal so far.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 17, 2022 14:20:36 GMT -5
An absolute babip clinic from the Yankees. Kudos
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Post by jdb on Jul 17, 2022 14:21:00 GMT -5
Reports are Sales finger is broken.
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 17, 2022 14:21:09 GMT -5
Xander is having a mediocre season. No power. Just BABIP. At least he's been better defensively so far. 2 DRS and 2 OAA as of yesterday.
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Post by manfred on Jul 17, 2022 14:21:17 GMT -5
Holy cow.
I said it before, but if Houck doesn’t get out of bases loaded, no outs… this would be one of the worst groin stomps going into the break I can remember.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 17, 2022 14:24:30 GMT -5
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Post by manfred on Jul 17, 2022 14:25:09 GMT -5
Diekman might be the white flag.
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Post by taiwansox on Jul 17, 2022 14:27:12 GMT -5
Reports are Sales finger is broken.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 17, 2022 14:27:38 GMT -5
I'd like to get Sal Frelick from the Brewers if that's at all possible
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Post by taiwansox on Jul 17, 2022 14:29:51 GMT -5
Ok we need to have Dalbec pitch, don’t waste Schreiber or Whitlock
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Post by Guidas on Jul 17, 2022 14:30:54 GMT -5
They faced some divisional teams at a really bad time health-wise and have lost in some terrible ways that makes it hurt a little extra, I’m not really hitting the panic button tho I didn’t think they were a likely World Series contender though so maybe I had lower expectations Agreed! 1) fans should not expect a World Series contender every year 2) why would a Red Sox fan expect a winning record in the 14 games against TB and NYY when missing 4 out of 5 rotation members as well as offense members.3) I expect Bloom to make some trade to address RF/1B offense by the deadline. That in part is why Bloom has been showcasing so many AAA prospects. I think the "showcasing" has been to address #2. The bench was pretty sparse going into the year, and AAA has been the de facto taxi squad/MASH unit.
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Post by stevedillard on Jul 17, 2022 14:31:50 GMT -5
Worst roster construction since.....2020
Just embarrassing. Shades of when we beat down the Yankees in 2005 and they had Melky in center dropping balls.
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Post by thelpc on Jul 17, 2022 14:32:32 GMT -5
Prediction: The Red Sox will not hold a playoff spot at any point for the rest of the season
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Post by taiwansox on Jul 17, 2022 14:33:08 GMT -5
Damn
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Post by soxfanatic on Jul 17, 2022 14:33:52 GMT -5
Embarrassing
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,940
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 17, 2022 14:34:55 GMT -5
I don't think you understand how probability works There are thousands of people whose jobs depend on being able to predict outcomes slightly better than the next person. Those people seem to think that Statcast-based stats like xBA are pretty valuable. I’ll take the word of those people over, uh, some guy on the internet. Aren't we all just, uh, some guy on the internet? We might as well stop all discussion if mods are going to shut people down that way. People who run BB front offices used to think RBIs were a telling stat, too. They can be wrong, you know.
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Post by station13 on Jul 17, 2022 14:34:56 GMT -5
Duran might be out town before JBJ lifetime contract is up.
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Post by manfred on Jul 17, 2022 14:35:52 GMT -5
My thinking at this moment is as follows: 1) The main stars have been between fine and good this year. Devers, X, JDM, even Story. Even CVaz. 2) The rest of the lineup has been bad 3) The pitching has been ok, with the pen a big problem.
In short: *either* Cora has failed to get the most out of everything but his studs, *or* Bloom left him with a top-heavy team.
Thus, if the season doesn’t turn around, I would fire one or the other.
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