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2022 Draft Signing Period
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 19, 2022 20:21:29 GMT -5
Good read I recommend this. Lets hope he is right and hit on a few of those.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 19, 2022 20:27:17 GMT -5
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 19, 2022 20:47:04 GMT -5
Good read I recommend this. Lets hope he is right and hit on a few of those. This guy absolutely loves our draft, the only thing that concerns him is how will the Sox sign these kids. I think bleacher report hates our draft. Because our first two picks were reaches.
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Post by vmoss on Jul 19, 2022 20:55:07 GMT -5
Interesting that draft and follows allows 225k free (vs 125). Is the possible extra signing bonus money taken from 22 or 23 draft?
Thanks.
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Post by greenmonster on Jul 19, 2022 20:59:36 GMT -5
He must be from California
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Post by borisman on Jul 19, 2022 21:01:18 GMT -5
Did he get signed? Was he a pitcher? Mark the bird Fidrych?
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Post by tyler3 on Jul 19, 2022 21:12:29 GMT -5
He must be from California North West guy, mariners analyst:) Joe is good.. but tongue and cheek ck aside you have a point. Seems like it is obvious now, draft California high school hitters domestically, get a thousand pitchers for pennies on the dollar internationally…and there you go. I wonder if an actual international draft would change things…. Not sure.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 19, 2022 22:11:45 GMT -5
Reddick was a DFE, I believe. My bad, nope.
Another one of my favorites was Luis Exposito.
The Red Sox drafted Brandon Belt as a DFE... as a pitcher. Realized he was a better hitter and transferred to Texas after his DFE year. Rest is history.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 19, 2022 22:20:20 GMT -5
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Post by kman22 on Jul 19, 2022 22:46:26 GMT -5
Agreed, seems like a good kid. Doesn't sound like there's any question in his mind about signing, he even touched on the plan for going to instructionals to finish off the year and get acclimated.
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Post by evanstonredsox on Jul 19, 2022 23:56:25 GMT -5
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 20, 2022 5:41:22 GMT -5
Say Maybe Gavin Klein was the insurance pick if something goes wrong in the top half of the draft?
Regardless, I really like this shorter signing period.
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Post by stevedillard on Jul 20, 2022 6:41:22 GMT -5
With Hatfield and Andrews on the job, I assume they're ready for the coming "cup of coffee" trademark case. Knowing little about the rankings, but it seems like Brannon would be a surprise sign. For a system sorely missing catching, let's hope he pans out better than our last high bonus Brannen, who flamed out as soon as he saw his first couple of pro pitches. It's basically Hickey and then below that, Lira who has struggled, and maybe McElvney, who is new to the position.
For all of these HS kids, are we looking at them just working out at the complex and maybe seeing a couple of games, (10 ABs) at the season end?
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Post by greenmonster on Jul 20, 2022 7:07:49 GMT -5
definitely worth listening to....this kid is mature, humble and very well spoken, hard to believe he is only 18yo
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jul 20, 2022 7:38:13 GMT -5
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Post by stevedillard on Jul 20, 2022 7:41:52 GMT -5
End of second comp (Anthony) slot 79 is $820, the slot for our early in third pick number 99 is $617 Mike had the estimate at $750 which sounds just about right.
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Post by mjammz on Jul 20, 2022 8:38:08 GMT -5
Very impressed with this interview. He comes off as a very intelligent, well-spoken kid. Seems to have a great head on his shoulders and built tremendous relationships with the Red Sox scouts pre-draft.
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Post by bcsox on Jul 20, 2022 9:12:13 GMT -5
Unsurprisingly to most on here, Law didn’t seem to have a favorable view of the top of the Sox draft:
Romero: polished, good ball/ strike recognition, started to hit for power which took him from someone likely to be a regular to maybe more.
Coffey: huge problems with offspeed. Better in spring but only against worse competition. Lot of risk. He said elsewhere that he was so bad with the bat that they converted him to a pitcher.
Anthony: trouble with offspeed, vulnerable to hard stuff in.
Dalton Rogers: 90-94, with a solid average change up, straight reliever only.
Meidroth: below avg power
Dean 93-96 fastball. Can’t throw any other pitches for strikes. If he had better control might have future as a middle reliever.
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Jul 20, 2022 9:24:18 GMT -5
I get people clash with Law's personality but his assessment was pretty accurate. He even notes that despite Coffey and Anthony's weaknesses that they have pretty impressive upside. Seems like if your going to write up a draft class that has a high ceiling it's fair game to write about their floor.
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Post by evanstonredsox on Jul 20, 2022 9:31:06 GMT -5
Unsurprisingly to most on here, Law didn’t seem to have a favorable view of the top of the Sox draft: Romero: polished, good ball/ strike recognition, started to hit for power which took him from someone likely to be a regular to maybe more. Coffey: huge problems with offspeed. Better in spring but only against worse competition. Lot of risk. He said elsewhere that he was so bad with the bat that they converted him to a pitcher. Anthony: trouble with offspeed, vulnerable to hard stuff in. Dalton Rogers: 90-94, with a solid average change up, straight reliever only. Meidroth: below avg power Dean 93-96 fastball. Can’t throw any other pitches for strikes. If he had better control might have future as a middle reliever. Could also cherry-pick all the good things he said about them… Romero: “He started to show more power later in the spring, which might take him from someone very likely to be a regular but unlikely to be more to a guy with some ceiling.” Coffey: “if (spring) improvement is real, first round upside” Anthony: “Plus power and prototypical build for a corner outfielder” I’m no fan of Law but this article seemed like a fair assessment. Every draftee has their flaws which shouldn’t be ignored that hopefully they can work. It’s honestly refreshing to hear a real assessment on these high schoolers after mlb network dropped hall of fame comps on half of the players in the draft.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 20, 2022 9:32:11 GMT -5
With Hatfield and Andrews on the job, I assume they're ready for the coming "cup of coffee" trademark case. Knowing little about the rankings, but it seems like Brannon would be a surprise sign. For a system sorely missing catching, let's hope he pans out better than our last high bonus Brannen, who flamed out as soon as he saw his first couple of pro pitches. It's basically Hickey and then below that, Lira who has struggled, and maybe McElvney, who is new to the position. For all of these HS kids, are we looking at them just working out at the complex and maybe seeing a couple of games, (10 ABs) at the season end? All of the draftees will report to Fort Myers. A few of the earlier college arms might make it up to Salem for a cup of coffee like McDonough, Olds, Hickey, and Webb did but they'll all get time in the FCL. Now that they're not split between the complex and Lowell, they do something of an orientation camp with the full group. Team-building, how to work out, how to go about your business as a pro, etc. then they start to get into games, then a few guys move up. The Salem bullpen has a fair amount of org guys in it who can easily be pushed aside for guys like Dean and Rogers to get 2-4 inning starts down the stretch.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 20, 2022 9:47:02 GMT -5
Here are my "super wicked early speculative gut-check predictions" for the 2022 signing season. I don't have any inside info behind this yet, these predictions are just based on gut feel and years of history of making these projections. These initial guesstimates have been fairly solid in years past, but they're just that - projections with a significant amount of possible variability. Feedback is welcome and appreciated. I will update from time to time as more info comes in and as opinions evolve.
Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap) Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus 1. Mikey Romero $2,500,000 2. Cutter Coffey $1,800,000 2. Roman Anthony $2,500,000 3. Dalton Rogers $300,000 4. Chase Meidroth $200,000 5. Noah Dean $343,800 6. Alex Hoppe $10,000 7. Caleb Bolden $10,000 8. Jonathan Brand $10,000 9. Brooks Brannon $750,000 10. Isaac Coffey $10,000
After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap) None, although Gavin Kilen might be insurance if Brannon does not sign
After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap) 11. Marques Johnson 12. Hayden Mullins 15. Nathan Landry 16. Garrett Ramsey 20. Connor Butler
Draft & Follow candidate not subject to 8/1 signing deadline, may sign for up to $225k and not count against the cap 18. Austin Ehlicher
Total spent towards cap using these projections: $8,433,800 Red Sox Cap: $8,078,300 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $8,482,215
Super wicked early projected not to sign 13. Gavin Kilen 14. Travis Sanders 17. Deundre Jones 19. Jaret Godman
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 20, 2022 9:47:38 GMT -5
Moved Godman to projected sign. He and Butler actually both have another year of college eligibility. I'll go with 1 of the 2 signing.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 20, 2022 10:02:37 GMT -5
For anyone familiar with Matt Collier's FaBIO scores on Twitter, here's a little compilation of scores among our drafted D1 college pitchers. In brief, a FaBIO score is akin to a percentile score weighted by three factors, one's control percentile, K percentile, and batted ball percentile. I'm including batters faced per game here as the FaBIO scores don't distinguish performance between starters and relievers. I'm also bolding all percentiles at 90 or greater for effect. Also, keep in mind there are some pretty small sample sizes among this group, but nevertheless, I thought it would be nice to synthesize this information in one place: Name | Round | FaBIO Overall | Control | K | Batted Ball | Batters Faced Per Game | Dalton Rogers | 3 | 99 | 50 | 99 | 99 | 6.6 | Noah Dean | 5 | 96 | 38 | 100 | 22 | 5.9 | Alex Hoppe | 6 | 96 | 66 | 92 | 91 | 10.9 | Caleb Bolden | 7 | 80 | 48 | 74 | 84 | 8.0 | Jonathan Brand | 8 | 95 | 62 | 89 | 96 | 25.3 | Isaac Coffey | 10 | 76 | 74 | 53 | 79 | 24.1 | Marques Johnson | 11 | 99 | 44 | 94 | 100 | 13.2 | Hayden Mullins | 12 | 47 | 2 | 88 | 24 | 14.4 | Nathan Landry | 15 | 99 | 97 | 98 | 76 | 11.1 | Garrett Ramsey | 16 | 95 | 70 | 98 | 70 | 6.4 | Jaret Godman | 19 | 52 | 76 | 41 | 44 | 4.8 |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 20, 2022 10:05:30 GMT -5
Moved Godman to projected sign. He and Butler actually both have another year of college eligibility. I'll go with 1 of the 2 signing. I thought someone had already posted that Butler announced his intent to sign, but I couldn't find it. I would imagine Godman would be the one that wouldn't sign, given a lot of opportunities are going to open up in that pitching staff.
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