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7/25-7/28 Red Sox vs. Guardians Series Thread
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 28, 2022 11:50:13 GMT -5
People complaining about giving Gallo a chance like they haven't watched this outfield this year.
WAR Gallo 0.1 (career 14.6 and is 28) Duran -0.1 JBJ -0.4 Verdugo -0.5 Refsnyder 0.7 (career 0.1 and is 31) Franchy -0.2
I feel like there's worse options than Joey Gallo.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 28, 2022 11:51:38 GMT -5
Red Sox starters don’t have a win in the entire month of July…idk if that’s more of an indictment on the pitching or the crap offense Yes.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 28, 2022 11:57:22 GMT -5
People complaining about giving Gallo a chance like they haven't watched this outfield this year. WAR Gallo 0.1 (career 14.6 and is 28) Duran -0.1 JBJ -0.4 Verdugo -0.5 Refsnyder 0.7 (career 0.1 and is 31) Franchy -0.2 I feel like there's worse options than Joey Gallo. 1. I can see the logic for why they might want to pick him up for cheap. 2. I agree with manfred that he'd be excruciating to watch and want no part of it on aesthetic grounds. 3. I almost think he'd be too cheap, in a sense. They'll have more than $100 million to spend in free agency this offseason and the OF is in dire need of a major upgrade, not just a value play acquisition. They should go bigger.
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 28, 2022 12:00:13 GMT -5
It doesn't matter how often you strike out if you're walking and hitting homers.
People would not get pissed at Dalbec for striking out a lot if, like Gallo, he walked 15% of the time, rained down homers, and was a good defender. Bobby's issue is that in addition to the low average from the bad hit tool, his walk rate is average and he's not hitting for enough power either. 10 HR in 272 PA does not fly with poor defense and a .279 OBP.
Gallo's walk rate is as good as ever and he still plays a good RF. The whole question is if the power will come back, or if the hit tool is just dead forever and won't let him unlock it.
I really don’t buy this for two reasons: 1) Take our delightful new extra innings rules. Man on 2nd, no outs. You want Gallo up? I want a guy who at least might make a productive out. 2) Do you want to *watch* Gallo? I mean, as a fan, do you really want to sit through a few games of 3, 4 ks just to get to a home run every 4 or 5 days? Ugh. Points like these are reasonable to consider, but in my mind they pale in comparison to the value the player provides. If you told me any player would provide 2-3 WAR next season and that he could be had for cheap, I'd jump on that in a second. I do think balls in play are more fun than all or nothing, but winning is also more fun than losing, and homers are fun too. Same with a good arm in RF.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 28, 2022 12:04:24 GMT -5
I really don’t buy this for two reasons: 1) Take our delightful new extra innings rules. Man on 2nd, no outs. You want Gallo up? I want a guy who at least might make a productive out. 2) Do you want to *watch* Gallo? I mean, as a fan, do you really want to sit through a few games of 3, 4 ks just to get to a home run every 4 or 5 days? Ugh. Points like these are reasonable to consider, but in my mind they pale in comparison to the value the player provides. If you told me any player would provide 2-3 WAR next season and that he could be had for cheap, I'd jump on that in a second. I do think balls in play are more fun than all or nothing, but winning is also more fun than losing, and homers are fun too. Same with a good arm in RF. I hope they aim higher than Gallo but hell after what we've seen at 1st/RF to date this season I'd take a 1 WAR player if they were cheap at the position(s). Also it would be a positive if it meant moving on from Franchy since Gallo could theoretically be signed to play that similar back-up COF/1st base role. I do wonder if Gallo is going to want to get the heck out of the AL East or at the very least a pressure cooker like environment the likes of Boston and go resurrect his career in a less pressure filled city.
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Post by benzinger on Jul 28, 2022 12:05:21 GMT -5
It doesn't matter how often you strike out if you're walking and hitting homers.
People would not get pissed at Dalbec for striking out a lot if, like Gallo, he walked 15% of the time, rained down homers, and was a good defender. Bobby's issue is that in addition to the low average from the bad hit tool, his walk rate is average and he's not hitting for enough power either. 10 HR in 272 PA does not fly with poor defense and a .279 OBP.
Gallo's walk rate is as good as ever and he still plays a good RF. The whole question is if the power will come back, or if the hit tool is just dead forever and won't let him unlock it.
I really don’t buy this for two reasons: 1) Take our delightful new extra innings rules. Man on 2nd, no outs. You want Gallo up? I want a guy who at least might make a productive out. 2) Do you want to *watch* Gallo? I mean, as a fan, do you really want to sit through a few games of 3, 4 ks just to get to a home run every 4 or 5 days? Ugh. I*think* that extra innings are losing the ghost man after 2022. Not certain on that, but I know the goal is get rid of that rule.
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 28, 2022 12:06:44 GMT -5
People complaining about giving Gallo a chance like they haven't watched this outfield this year. WAR Gallo 0.1 (career 14.6 and is 28) Duran -0.1 JBJ -0.4 Verdugo -0.5 Refsnyder 0.7 (career 0.1 and is 31) Franchy -0.2 I feel like there's worse options than Joey Gallo. 1. I can see the logic for why they might want to pick him up for cheap. 2. I agree with manfred that he'd be excruciating to watch and want no part of it on aesthetic grounds. 3. I almost think he'd be too cheap, in a sense. They'll have more than $100 million to spend in free agency this offseason and the OF is in dire need of a major upgrade, not just a value play acquisition. They should go bigger.
Would a Devers extension, a Xander deal, an impact starter, and Contreras be big enough? More than one way to skin a roster If you can identify value pretty much anywhere, I say take it. I also view Gallo as more of a fourth OF, like JBJ this year but with more offensive upside and the ability to play 1B if needed. If he sucks, worst case the team is exposed if they get a 2022-esque injury bug.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 28, 2022 12:11:09 GMT -5
Santana. Good grief 😳 Nunez next? Yeah! Nunez! Are you just trying to get my hopes up? Or is there a chance?
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Post by manfred on Jul 28, 2022 12:18:58 GMT -5
I really don’t buy this for two reasons: 1) Take our delightful new extra innings rules. Man on 2nd, no outs. You want Gallo up? I want a guy who at least might make a productive out. 2) Do you want to *watch* Gallo? I mean, as a fan, do you really want to sit through a few games of 3, 4 ks just to get to a home run every 4 or 5 days? Ugh. I*think* that extra innings are losing the ghost man after 2022. Not certain on that, but I know the goal is get rid of that rule. I meant that as an example. The point is, a guy who strikes out 200 times has 200 unproductive outs. No sac flies, no runners advanced, no chance of fielder error, etc. So this idea that Ks don’t matter strikes me as wrong. Or, taken from a different angle: we discuss xOBA a lot on this board… I assume a K is a .000 xOBA. Contact is a chance.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 28, 2022 12:21:38 GMT -5
People complaining about giving Gallo a chance like they haven't watched this outfield this year. WAR Gallo 0.1 (career 14.6 and is 28) Duran -0.1 JBJ -0.4 Verdugo -0.5 Refsnyder 0.7 (career 0.1 and is 31) Franchy -0.2 I feel like there's worse options than Joey Gallo. 1. I can see the logic for why they might want to pick him up for cheap. 2. I agree with manfred that he'd be excruciating to watch and want no part of it on aesthetic grounds. 3. I almost think he'd be too cheap, in a sense. They'll have more than $100 million to spend in free agency this offseason and the OF is in dire need of a major upgrade, not just a value play acquisition. They should go bigger.
I'm not saying prioritize him, but these are the kinds of moves that make a championship year, the lightning in a bottle Matt Carpenter types. I think he's a good flier after giving Devers an extension, signing one of Turner/Xander/Correa and getting an impact starter like Joe Musgrove. Bring back Kiké for CF and have Josh Bell and Tristan Casas to compete for 1B/DH. They could also go nuts and get Judge, but I wouldn't.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 28, 2022 12:22:54 GMT -5
In regards to Gallo, has the MLB decided whether or not they are banning the shift as we now know it? Obviously his massive K issues won't be helped by that but his BA and OBP may see some an improvement if he doesn't have three infielders standing on the right side of the field.
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Post by manfred on Jul 28, 2022 12:24:36 GMT -5
People complaining about giving Gallo a chance like they haven't watched this outfield this year. WAR Gallo 0.1 (career 14.6 and is 28) Duran -0.1 JBJ -0.4 Verdugo -0.5 Refsnyder 0.7 (career 0.1 and is 31) Franchy -0.2 I feel like there's worse options than Joey Gallo. 1. I can see the logic for why they might want to pick him up for cheap. 2. I agree with manfred that he'd be excruciating to watch and want no part of it on aesthetic grounds. 3. I almost think he'd be too cheap, in a sense. They'll have more than $100 million to spend in free agency this offseason and the OF is in dire need of a major upgrade, not just a value play acquisition. They should go bigger.
This is another great point: go bigger. If you get and play Gallo, you are doing at best the minimum for a position. It is time to upgrade for real. That is, if they keep X and Devers and Kiké, say, then they are set at all positions except 1st and 1 OF spot. Why get Gallo? Go big in those last positions (or even medium).
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 28, 2022 12:30:31 GMT -5
1. I can see the logic for why they might want to pick him up for cheap. 2. I agree with manfred that he'd be excruciating to watch and want no part of it on aesthetic grounds. 3. I almost think he'd be too cheap, in a sense. They'll have more than $100 million to spend in free agency this offseason and the OF is in dire need of a major upgrade, not just a value play acquisition. They should go bigger.
This is another great point: go bigger. If you get and play Gallo, you are doing at best the minimum for a position. It is time to upgrade for real. That is, if they keep X and Devers and Kiké, say, then they are set at all positions except 1st and 1 OF spot. Why get Gallo? Go big in those last positions (or even medium). It's a valid point and I agree, if the plan is to sign Gallo and pencil him in as an every day guy then what are we really doing here? Probably just spinning the tires again similar to this season. Assuming like you said they keep X and Devers, I'm not very sold on Hernandez but on a cheap deal I guess why not. Fill the last OF spot with Brandon Nimmo or someone in that tier and sign someone to be first base insurance until Casas is ready. I'd take Gallo in the role Franchy is in now which is backup COF and first base. I think he'd be a good option for that with some good upside. I'm not breaking the bank for him that's for sure but one year incentive laden deal what do they really have to lose?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 28, 2022 12:50:30 GMT -5
Exactly. Imagine Story and Gallo in the same lineup?!? Good lord. It doesn't matter how often you strike out if you're walking and hitting homers. People would not get pissed at Dalbec for striking out a lot if, like Gallo, he walked 15% of the time, rained down homers, and was a good defender. Bobby's issue is that in addition to the low average from the bad hit tool, his walk rate is average and he's not hitting for enough power either. 10 HR in 272 PA does not fly with poor defense and a .279 OBP. Gallo's walk rate is as good as ever and he still plays a good RF. The whole question is if the power will come back, or if the hit tool is just dead forever and won't let him unlock it.
Actually it can matter. Look, I'm well aware that striking out isn't always the end of the world, that it was stigmatized a long time ago. Therefore I threw my support behind Mark Bellhorn, the poster child for the 3 true outcomes at that time. Still a fan of Bellhorn. But his swift decline is part of the issue. Gallo is down to being a sub .200 hitter. At some point it does matter that a guy can't hit, which is what I think is going on with Gallo. I mean, say you have a runner on 3b and 1 out. What's the most likely scenario? He whiffs and doesn't bring the runner home. Guys like Gallo put so little pressure on the opposing defense. You can't get a hit if you can't put it in play consistently enough. And they can't drive in runs as well because they only have one method to do so and if they don't HR they can't score other runners with their inability to make contact. And at some point, if Gallo cannot hit at all, they will start challenging and exploiting that fact more and the walks will decline. It's funny. When the Yankees and Sox were playing that playoff game I worried about Judge, Stanton, and Rizzo and nobody else in that lineup, especially Gallo. Maybe he still has his skills but if he can't handle a place like NY then he sure as hell won't handle Boston where he'll be very structinized. I remember living the Rob Deer experience briefly. Can't say I missed him. I like guys like Jack Clark who were 3 true outcome guys but once that hit tools evaporates altogether they have so little to offer. A guy like that can hit .230 - .240 and be damn good, but hitting around or under .200 not so much.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 28, 2022 13:41:37 GMT -5
Red Sox starters don’t have a win in the entire month of July…idk if that’s more of an indictment on the pitching or the crap offense The starters would have had several wins if not for the bullpen!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 28, 2022 13:45:04 GMT -5
I said this on Twitter, but my guess (hope?) on Santana is he's just buttressing the depth in Worcester. The MLB injury situation is such that the AAA and AA rosters are super thin. Not unusual to acquire guys for that purpose during the year (see, eg, the Abraham Almonte purchase and Brett Kennedy signing). Maybe it's also that he's there if they blow it up but this isn't a thing to make a big deal over.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 28, 2022 13:48:06 GMT -5
Well, looks like Joey Gallo is going to be a hot topic this offseason.
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 28, 2022 13:53:57 GMT -5
It doesn't matter how often you strike out if you're walking and hitting homers. People would not get pissed at Dalbec for striking out a lot if, like Gallo, he walked 15% of the time, rained down homers, and was a good defender. Bobby's issue is that in addition to the low average from the bad hit tool, his walk rate is average and he's not hitting for enough power either. 10 HR in 272 PA does not fly with poor defense and a .279 OBP. Gallo's walk rate is as good as ever and he still plays a good RF. The whole question is if the power will come back, or if the hit tool is just dead forever and won't let him unlock it.
Actually it can matter. Look, I'm well aware that striking out isn't always the end of the world, that it was stigmatized a long time ago. Therefore I threw my support behind Mark Bellhorn, the poster child for the 3 true outcomes at that time. Still a fan of Bellhorn. But his swift decline is part of the issue. Gallo is down to being a sub .200 hitter. At some point it does matter that a guy can't hit, which is what I think is going on with Gallo. I mean, say you have a runner on 3b and 1 out. What's the most likely scenario? He whiffs and doesn't bring the runner home. Guys like Gallo put so little pressure on the opposing defense. You can't get a hit if you can't put it in play consistently enough. And they can't drive in runs as well because they only have one method to do so and if they don't HR they can't score other runners with their inability to make contact. And at some point, if Gallo cannot hit at all, they will start challenging and exploiting that fact more and the walks will decline. It's funny. When the Yankees and Sox were playing that playoff game I worried about Judge, Stanton, and Rizzo and nobody else in that lineup, especially Gallo. Maybe he still has his skills but if he can't handle a place like NY then he sure as hell won't handle Boston where he'll be very structinized. I remember living the Rob Deer experience briefly. Can't say I missed him. I like guys like Jack Clark who were 3 true outcome guys but once that hit tools evaporates altogether they have so little to offer. A guy like that can hit .230 - .240 and be damn good, but hitting around or under .200 not so much. You can just as easily cherry pick situations where an all or nothing power guy is useful, though. "What if you have two on, you're down three, and it's late in the game"?
Gallo is a .201 hitter for his career. Still has a career 111 OPS+ with good defense. When your walk rate and power are as extreme as his have been in his career, you can sustain a lower average. .200 is fine for Gallo if he has the power he showed from 2017-2021. Even including this season the man has a 39HR/162 average and 15% walk rate for his career. I do agree that guys with a weak hit tool are a bit more house-of-cardsy, because if the hit tool declines even a little it can really hurt how good they are as a player. Gallo is still only 28, though. I'm not ready to say he's done after 138 games at 86 OPS+. Plus, even with his average in the .160s this year his walk rate is still just about at his career average, so he's clearly not being exploited in the way you describe yet.
Even in this down season he's still barreling the ball like crazy. 98th percentile barrel %, 89th percentile hard hit %. Combine that with a 98th percentile BB % and that's a guy I'd be thrilled to buy low on. Just don't count on him to start and the reward very much outweighs the risk in my mind.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 28, 2022 13:55:42 GMT -5
Well, looks like Joey Gallo is going to be a hot topic this offseason. I want him as a low cost buy, but as mentioned earlier, only in the splurge in other areas. He could be a nice glove and 9th hitting power bat.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 28, 2022 14:33:24 GMT -5
People complaining about giving Gallo a chance like they haven't watched this outfield this year. WAR Gallo 0.1 (career 14.6 and is 28) Duran -0.1 JBJ -0.4 Verdugo -0.5 Refsnyder 0.7 (career 0.1 and is 31) Franchy -0.2 I feel like there's worse options than Joey Gallo. it isn't about the player, it is about finding the needle in the haystack. Find one, your lucky. Try to find 2 or 3 and you will drive yourself and everyone who loves you crazy. We got money coming off the books. Not interested in paying 5-10 million (and let's be honest, there will be a market for this stiffs services) on a guy like that. Let's shop, trade, whatever to stay away from this iron pyrite and get some real players in here.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 28, 2022 15:14:00 GMT -5
We should call up Hernandez. Hes on fire and send Franchy back down. Let Vazquez play first.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 28, 2022 16:16:01 GMT -5
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 28, 2022 16:22:21 GMT -5
Like i said above. Dalbec at 3rd and Vazquez at 1st with Hernandez C to see what we got with him until Devers is back.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 28, 2022 17:21:46 GMT -5
Like i said above. Dalbec at 3rd and Vazquez at 1st with Hernandez C to see what we got with him until Devers is back. Arroyo is at 2B tonight with Seadogs. Hopefully, he's days away and can push Franchy back to OF
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Post by manfred on Jul 28, 2022 17:34:42 GMT -5
Like i said above. Dalbec at 3rd and Vazquez at 1st with Hernandez C to see what we got with him until Devers is back. Arroyo is at 2B tonight with Seadogs. Hopefully, he's days away and can push Franchy back to OF The outfield in Worcester? Here’s hoping, indeed.
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