SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
7/25-7/28 Red Sox vs. Guardians Series Thread
|
Post by manfred on Jul 28, 2022 9:38:03 GMT -5
I can’t survive a game of Santana. Is this depth in the event of full-team cholera outbreak? How many guys are there in the cosmos I’d rather see play than this guy?
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Jul 28, 2022 9:39:30 GMT -5
Gallo has always been terrible against good pitching and in high leverage even when he was a valuable player. Can’t make things happen against elite arms in the playoffs if you aren’t touching the ball. I'll happily settle for the 3 WAR "get us to the playoffs" Gallo of yore, especially if he's a fourth OF / backup 1B! If he plays like he did in NYY obviously he wouldn't help us much. I just think the upside is worth a cheap "prove it" sort of deal, especially when the floor is a competent defender who will hit a few bombs.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
|
Post by nomar on Jul 28, 2022 9:41:08 GMT -5
Gallo has always been terrible against good pitching and in high leverage even when he was a valuable player. Can’t make things happen against elite arms in the playoffs if you aren’t touching the ball. I'll happily settle for the 3 WAR "get us to the playoffs" Gallo of yore, especially if he's a fourth OF / backup 1B! If he plays like he did in NYY obviously he wouldn't help us much. I just think the upside is worth a cheap "prove it" sort of deal, especially when the floor is competent defender who will hit a few bombs. Yeah I’d be fine with that role too, especially to bridge Casas who I don’t expect to be ready next April personally.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Jul 28, 2022 9:42:01 GMT -5
Bloom making it sound like trading Xander will not happen, which is infuriating, unless they plan to break the bank for him, which I doubt. JDM won't get much if that's what the Yankees got for Benny, but I'll take some low-A lotto tickets. Vazquez I feel like you can get some real value for, especially to Houston. Eovaldi is a question mark. His last two starts have hurt his value. If they decide to sell off and don't sell off Xander that would lead me to believe they think they have a chance to re-sign him. Maybe that's me being a fool though but just my 2 cents on it.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 28, 2022 9:53:44 GMT -5
Bloom making it sound like trading Xander will not happen, which is infuriating, unless they plan to break the bank for him, which I doubt. JDM won't get much if that's what the Yankees got for Benny, but I'll take some low-A lotto tickets. Vazquez I feel like you can get some real value for, especially to Houston. Eovaldi is a question mark. His last two starts have hurt his value. If they decide to sell off and don't sell off Xander that would lead me to believe they think they have a chance to re-sign him. Maybe that's me being a fool though but just my 2 cents on it. They better. It just doesn't make sense why they haven't made a meaningful extension offer then? The report that came out for the only offer made was 2 million more and less than Story.
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 28, 2022 9:56:16 GMT -5
Why is Santana back? This dude is an absolute trash can of a player.
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 28, 2022 9:57:47 GMT -5
Bloom making it sound like trading Xander will not happen, which is infuriating, unless they plan to break the bank for him, which I doubt. JDM won't get much if that's what the Yankees got for Benny, but I'll take some low-A lotto tickets. Vazquez I feel like you can get some real value for, especially to Houston. Eovaldi is a question mark. His last two starts have hurt his value. If they decide to sell off and don't sell off Xander that would lead me to believe they think they have a chance to re-sign him. Maybe that's me being a fool though but just my 2 cents on it. They need to have a long overdue real conversation with him. If hes 100% out they can't just take the pick for the QO. They need something back that can help the team next year.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
|
Post by nomar on Jul 28, 2022 9:58:16 GMT -5
Why is Santana back? This dude is an absolute trash can of a player. I don’t think they care how bad he is. They need depth because the roster is only getting thinner from here. Time to sell
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 28, 2022 9:58:18 GMT -5
The Yankees did well in the trade. They dont need Benintendi to hit for power. They just need him to get on base in front of their power hitters. The Yankees aren't short of power hitters so getting an OBP guy should help them. Certainly beats playing Gallo. And they didnt give up much to get him. The Royals got the rental price so you wouldnt expect much. The Sox gave up 2 years of service so you'd expect more and they did get 5 players. Unfortunately Franchy is replacement level caliber, Winckowski is fringy, 2 of their prospects will never play major league ball and the other prospect has questionable stuff, although he cannot be written off at this point. Benintendi is hardly a franchise player but he was worth more than they got. I dont care to hear about Benintendi's 2020 season...he got all of 39 ABs, so I dont take that seriously. They sold low on him and it shows. Benintendi also slashed .141/.243/.219 in September of 2019. It was a terrible end of 2019 into a terrible start to 2020 into a season ending injury. If you were expecting 2018 Benintendi to come back in 2021 after all that, it still didn't, but also good for you. I don't think it's fair to evaluate the outcome of the trade based on the current status of the players involved. Prospects are inherently high variance, so picking a few that busted after a trade does not mean that the trade was bad. It just happens. If prospects are busting more than average after we trade for them over a large sample size, that's when you can start to criticize the negotiating skills and eye for talent. You can't make that call for one trade, though. Even if you insist at looking at how the return has panned out so far, it's still not clear the Sox got a bad return. Two of the minor-league prospects are just 20 years old, and one of them has pitched well and has room to grow physically. The other had a major ankle injury last summer and hasn't pitched all year. You can't blame Bloom for a guy getting hurt and you can't tell me you know whether two 20 year olds are washed already. We don't know what Winckowski is yet either. He's only 24. If Winckowski is even an alright long reliever with six years of control, even if everyone else busts, that could be okay value for two mediocre seasons of Benintendi. If he's a back-end starter, even better. (I'm comfortable with pronouncing Franchy AAAA depth at this point) I'm not pining away for Benintendi. He is what he is. He is a similar player to Verdugo in terms of bottom line. Benintendi has a similar hit tool, lacks power, and gets in trouble when he tries to sell out for power and are okay LF who really can't handle Fenways RF. The only difference is that I think Verdugo's hit tool is better while Benintendi has better plate discipline. Ultimately both are average to a little above average players who are disappointing because you're left with the feeling that they should have been better. Yet I watch Benintendi get torn down while Verdugo is made out to he much better than he is. Must be the uniform Verdugo is wearing and the uniform Benintendi no longer wears. I remember Benintendi struggling in Sept 2019 and being terrible on 2020 and ultimately injured. For all I know he wasn't right at the end of 2019 either. For the cost of an average-ish LF Bloom took a calculated gamble opting for quantity hoping he'd recoup value using the law of averages. Unfortunately Franchy is a negative value. I think Winckowski is either a below average starter or maybe an average reliever and he's the best of the bunch. The only other chance to recoup value is De La Rosa. I'm certainly not writing him off. I am writing off Valdez and Gambrel. Valdez lacks a hit tool and defense. Not likely a major leaguer. Gambrel is now injured but before that he had bad minor league numbers, nothing that indicates a viable major leaguer. So it's up to De La Rosa to help the Sox recoup value because I doubt six years of mediocrity of Winckowski, a swingman,alone equals 2 years of an average-ish LF. It's not a huge loss, though. It's not like trading Sparky Lyle for Danny Cater or losing Jeff Bagwell. I think the thought process was a good gamble by Bloom, but the guys picked don't amount to much. I guess it's like spending 5 dollars on scratch tickets and only winning a dollar or two. Not a huge loss, worthwhile gamble, but a loss nonetheless.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Jul 28, 2022 9:58:48 GMT -5
Why is Santana back? This dude is an absolute trash can of a player. Maybe they're planning on selling off sooner than later and need warm bodies? Only explanation I got. Even then I'd rather just see what some AAA guys can do instead.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 28, 2022 10:01:45 GMT -5
Gallo has hit .160 since they got him, but I'm not so sure that he's a worse bet going forward than Benintendi I want us to sign Gallo this offseason. His floor is basically a ~.300 OBP, 15-20 HR, and good defense in RF. His price tag will also probably be low after the struggles he's had in NY. He'll be 29 next year, so he really shouldn't be dealing with age-based decline yet. I say grab him on a low-money deal with some team options and if he works out, great. He can even play an average 1B if needed. Kiké would be a great buy low candidate too, though, and JBJ's option could make a fair bit of sense. Then there's Nimmo... So I guess I am conflicted. Signing Gallo would be so fun though. It would get old fast. Gallo flat out can't hit. Yes he draws walks and hits homers but his hit tool is so bad that his OBP will be lower than hoped for because he had to walk to get on base. His SA would be lower than hoped for because he cant manage enough singles and doubles. And he has shown he can't handle NY. He'd be devoured in Boston. No thanks to Joey Gallo.
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 28, 2022 10:02:31 GMT -5
Santana. Good grief 😳
Nunez next?
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Jul 28, 2022 10:03:00 GMT -5
If they decide to sell off and don't sell off Xander that would lead me to believe they think they have a chance to re-sign him. Maybe that's me being a fool though but just my 2 cents on it. They need to have a long overdue real conversation with him. If hes 100% out they can't just take the pick for the QO. They need something back that can help the team next year. I completely agree, the direction this season has been heading since the all-star break it would be malpractice to hold on to Xander if they have absolutely no intention of re-signing him. Maybe they have an understanding with him that he's going to go out to the FA market and find out his value and come back to the Sox to be able to match it. If that is the case perhaps they don't believe his market is going to be as crazy high $ amounts and years as some in the media have thrown around. It wouldn't shock me, we've seen players as recently as last offseason not end up with the market I am sure they assumed they would get who ended up taking less money and years then was predicted.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 28, 2022 10:14:21 GMT -5
Just to shine a light on how unlikely a deep playoff push is:
Red Sox run differential: -16
Toronto +56 Seattle +32 Tampa +24 Guardians +14 Baltimore -7 White Sox -19 Yankees +196 and just added Benny! Astros +103 Twins +32
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Jul 28, 2022 10:15:58 GMT -5
Just to shine a light on how unlikely a deep playoff push is: Red Sox run differential: -16 Toronto +56 Seattle +32 Tampa +24 Guardians +14 Baltimore -7 White Sox -19 Yankees +196 and just added Benny! Astros +103 Twins +32 I’m not sure that is the best measure, since the Sox have gotten so bombed in the last week. In theory, if they got it together, that would turn around.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 28, 2022 10:27:34 GMT -5
Just to shine a light on how unlikely a deep playoff push is: Red Sox run differential: -16 Toronto +56 Seattle +32 Tampa +24 Guardians +14 Baltimore -7 White Sox -19 Yankees +196 and just added Benny! Astros +103 Twins +32 I’m not sure that is the best measure, since the Sox have gotten so bombed in the last week. In theory, if they got it together, that would turn around. Even still, it's an aggregate of the full season. Even if you take out the Toronto game they're still behind most and I'm sure the others have games we can cherry pick out. They're still a team that still hasn't won a singular series against AL East opponents and a team that built a pretty decent record while playing some of the worst competition in baseball. Since June 27th (didn't go back further because it added wins lol) Toronto 1-2 Cubs 1-2 Rays 1-2 Yankees 2-2 Rays 0-4 Yankees 1-2 Toronto 0-3 Guardians 1-2 (game tonight) That's 7-19 and I think the Guardians are you, but they're going to at least split you with a chance to take 3 out of 4. With 3 teams in front of you that are all not in the playoffs and being 4.5 out of the last spot, it all blends together with the very poor run differential. The xW-L has the Red Sox as over achieving by 1 game.
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Jul 28, 2022 11:00:01 GMT -5
Benintendi also slashed .141/.243/.219 in September of 2019. It was a terrible end of 2019 into a terrible start to 2020 into a season ending injury. If you were expecting 2018 Benintendi to come back in 2021 after all that, it still didn't, but also good for you. I don't think it's fair to evaluate the outcome of the trade based on the current status of the players involved. Prospects are inherently high variance, so picking a few that busted after a trade does not mean that the trade was bad. It just happens. If prospects are busting more than average after we trade for them over a large sample size, that's when you can start to criticize the negotiating skills and eye for talent. You can't make that call for one trade, though. Even if you insist at looking at how the return has panned out so far, it's still not clear the Sox got a bad return. Two of the minor-league prospects are just 20 years old, and one of them has pitched well and has room to grow physically. The other had a major ankle injury last summer and hasn't pitched all year. You can't blame Bloom for a guy getting hurt and you can't tell me you know whether two 20 year olds are washed already. We don't know what Winckowski is yet either. He's only 24. If Winckowski is even an alright long reliever with six years of control, even if everyone else busts, that could be okay value for two mediocre seasons of Benintendi. If he's a back-end starter, even better. (I'm comfortable with pronouncing Franchy AAAA depth at this point) I'm not pining away for Benintendi. He is what he is. He is a similar player to Verdugo in terms of bottom line. Benintendi has a similar hit tool, lacks power, and gets in trouble when he tries to sell out for power and are okay LF who really can't handle Fenways RF. The only difference is that I think Verdugo's hit tool is better while Benintendi has better plate discipline. Ultimately both are average to a little above average players who are disappointing because you're left with the feeling that they should have been better. Yet I watch Benintendi get torn down while Verdugo is made out to he much better than he is. Must be the uniform Verdugo is wearing and the uniform Benintendi no longer wears. I remember Benintendi struggling in Sept 2019 and being terrible on 2020 and ultimately injured. For all I know he wasn't right at the end of 2019 either. For the cost of an average-ish LF Bloom took a calculated gamble opting for quantity hoping he'd recoup value using the law of averages. Unfortunately Franchy is a negative value. I think Winckowski is either a below average starter or maybe an average reliever and he's the best of the bunch. The only other chance to recoup value is De La Rosa. I'm certainly not writing him off. I am writing off Valdez and Gambrel. Valdez lacks a hit tool and defense. Not likely a major leaguer. Gambrel is now injured but before that he had bad minor league numbers, nothing that indicates a viable major leaguer. So it's up to De La Rosa to help the Sox recoup value because I doubt six years of mediocrity of Winckowski, a swingman,alone equals 2 years of an average-ish LF. It's not a huge loss, though. It's not like trading Sparky Lyle for Danny Cater or losing Jeff Bagwell. I think the thought process was a good gamble by Bloom, but the guys picked don't amount to much. I guess it's like spending 5 dollars on scratch tickets and only winning a dollar or two. Not a huge loss, worthwhile gamble, but a loss nonetheless. If you think Winckowski is a back end starter or serviceable reliever, that's already going to be enough to balance out two years of Benintendi, especially when we had three outfielders as good or better than Benintendi last year, so he wouldn't have even brought much value to the team. On the contrary, trading him allowed us to stay under the luxury tax, which gave us more flexibility to go over the tax this season. Keeping him would have meant either paying the tax last year or having another unfilled hole on the roster. Overall he'll be worth ~5 bWAR over two seasons, half of which would have been wasted on the Red Sox last year.
Writing off Valdez and Gambrell seems premature to me. Valdez in particular looks uninspiring, but he's only 20. Even if you are scouting Jesus, "Not likely a major leaguer" at age 20 does not mean zero value. Gambrell gives up too many homers, but his BB rate and K rate have both been solid, and his velocity apparently improved in 2021. SP.com specifically says that he has a wide range of potential outcomes and could be an up and down swingman type. Again, this does not mean zero value.
Most prospects are unlikely to even make it to the majors, never mind make an impact there. You need to acquire them anyway, though, because some guys will inevitably hit their ceilings. Writing guys off early, and criticizing a trade for five prospects because some of those five might not be big leaguers, makes little sense.
I agree that the thought process was good here and I think it was a reasonable trade regardless of what happens to the prospects. Again, criticize Bloom if the guys he picks up through trades like this have worse outcomes on the aggregate than would be expected for prospects of their pedigrees, especially if internally developed guys with similar chops are outperforming them. Then his eye for talent might be bad, he might not negotiate well, the development system might not integrate new players well, etc.
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Jul 28, 2022 11:02:24 GMT -5
I want us to sign Gallo this offseason. His floor is basically a ~.300 OBP, 15-20 HR, and good defense in RF. His price tag will also probably be low after the struggles he's had in NY. He'll be 29 next year, so he really shouldn't be dealing with age-based decline yet. I say grab him on a low-money deal with some team options and if he works out, great. He can even play an average 1B if needed. Kiké would be a great buy low candidate too, though, and JBJ's option could make a fair bit of sense. Then there's Nimmo... So I guess I am conflicted. Signing Gallo would be so fun though. It would get old fast. Gallo flat out can't hit. Yes he draws walks and hits homers but his hit tool is so bad that his OBP will be lower than hoped for because he had to walk to get on base. His SA would be lower than hoped for because he cant manage enough singles and doubles. And he has shown he can't handle NY. He'd be devoured in Boston. No thanks to Joey Gallo. WAR is WAR
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Jul 28, 2022 11:03:19 GMT -5
come on folks. People get pissed at Dalbec for striking out. Can you imaging the frustration level with Gallo ? Forget this guy. He isn't what we need. I mean, we are gonna go 1-2 year stop gaps and fliers with guys like Gallo. It won't work and that isn't conjecture. Exactly. Imagine Story and Gallo in the same lineup?!? Good lord.
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 28, 2022 11:04:51 GMT -5
Why is Santana back? This dude is an absolute trash can of a player. ….at least he can play 1B…. Franchy?
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Jul 28, 2022 11:10:17 GMT -5
come on folks. People get pissed at Dalbec for striking out. Can you imaging the frustration level with Gallo ? Forget this guy. He isn't what we need. I mean, we are gonna go 1-2 year stop gaps and fliers with guys like Gallo. It won't work and that isn't conjecture. Exactly. Imagine Story and Gallo in the same lineup?!? Good lord. It doesn't matter how often you strike out if you're walking and hitting homers.
People would not get pissed at Dalbec for striking out a lot if, like Gallo, he walked 15% of the time, rained down homers, and was a good defender. Bobby's issue is that in addition to the low average from the bad hit tool, his walk rate is average and he's not hitting for enough power either. 10 HR in 272 PA does not fly with poor defense and a .279 OBP.
Gallo's walk rate is as good as ever and he still plays a good RF. The whole question is if the power will come back, or if the hit tool is just dead forever and won't let him unlock it.
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 28, 2022 11:13:12 GMT -5
They need to have a long overdue real conversation with him. If hes 100% out they can't just take the pick for the QO. They need something back that can help the team next year. I completely agree, the direction this season has been heading since the all-star break it would be malpractice to hold on to Xander if they have absolutely no intention of re-signing him. Maybe they have an understanding with him that he's going to go out to the FA market and find out his value and come back to the Sox to be able to match it. If that is the case perhaps they don't believe his market is going to be as crazy high $ amounts and years as some in the media have thrown around. It wouldn't shock me, we've seen players as recently as last offseason not end up with the market I am sure they assumed they would get who ended up taking less money and years then was predicted. Agreed, I think Bogaerts will be surprised. It will be less than Story.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Jul 28, 2022 11:25:49 GMT -5
Exactly. Imagine Story and Gallo in the same lineup?!? Good lord. It doesn't matter how often you strike out if you're walking and hitting homers.
People would not get pissed at Dalbec for striking out a lot if, like Gallo, he walked 15% of the time, rained down homers, and was a good defender. Bobby's issue is that in addition to the low average from the bad hit tool, his walk rate is average and he's not hitting for enough power either. 10 HR in 272 PA does not fly with poor defense and a .279 OBP.
Gallo's walk rate is as good as ever and he still plays a good RF. The whole question is if the power will come back, or if the hit tool is just dead forever and won't let him unlock it.
I really don’t buy this for two reasons: 1) Take our delightful new extra innings rules. Man on 2nd, no outs. You want Gallo up? I want a guy who at least might make a productive out. 2) Do you want to *watch* Gallo? I mean, as a fan, do you really want to sit through a few games of 3, 4 ks just to get to a home run every 4 or 5 days? Ugh.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 28, 2022 11:43:58 GMT -5
It would get old fast. Gallo flat out can't hit. Yes he draws walks and hits homers but his hit tool is so bad that his OBP will be lower than hoped for because he had to walk to get on base. His SA would be lower than hoped for because he cant manage enough singles and doubles. And he has shown he can't handle NY. He'd be devoured in Boston. No thanks to Joey Gallo. WAR is WAR
|
|
|
Post by taiwansox on Jul 28, 2022 11:49:10 GMT -5
Red Sox starters don’t have a win in the entire month of July…idk if that’s more of an indictment on the pitching or the crap offense
|
|
|