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7/25-7/28 Red Sox vs. Guardians Series Thread
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 26, 2022 9:13:21 GMT -5
I think in retrospect it seems like an even better idea to have tried him as a starter. Would have been nice to have him making starts rather than Bello and Seabold - they needed that starting pitching depth desperately. But of course that was before he got hurt. ADD: Yes to everything James said. It's why putting any relievers not named Mariano in the Hall of Fame drives me a little nuts: "Congratulations on being one of the best pitchers ever who wasn't good enough to be a starter!" I know it's not quite that simple, but... it's not a lot less simple.
I actually get less mad about the Hall of Fame than I do about the All-Star games. Do we all want to see a nameless seventh-inning guy who popped a 1.46 ERA for 29 innings, or the American League's sixth-best starter airing it out? Like, all due respect to Liam Hendriks who seems fun and is consistently effective, but wouldn't everyone prefer to see Kopech, who has been much more valuable this year, open it up for an inning? Or Johnny Cueto? Everyone loves Johnny Cueto. Depends on the reliever. I'd rather see Devin Williams or prime Aroldis for one inning than Nestor Cortes or Miles Mikolas.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 26, 2022 9:16:43 GMT -5
Yeah I mean Devin Williams has like a 42% K rate, he'd be an example of someone who can stay. Love me my weird pitch-mix command/control starters who make it work though.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 26, 2022 9:32:49 GMT -5
Let's just hope that we don't turn Whitlock into Daniel Bard. Or that time they tried Papelbon starting.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Jul 26, 2022 9:33:43 GMT -5
Yeah I mean Devin Williams has like a 42% K rate, he'd be an example of someone who can stay. Love me my weird pitch-mix command/control starters who make it work though. Especially as a change up dominant reliever. He’s so unique. Who doesn’t want to watch Devin Williams?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 26, 2022 9:37:48 GMT -5
Refsnyder should be this team leadoff hitter. Can't do it. AC already publicly announced, right after his most recent call-up, that Duran would hit leadoff the rest of the season...
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 26, 2022 9:52:02 GMT -5
That pitcher seems annoying. The radio guys were starting to worry about him by the time he was done.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 26, 2022 9:53:24 GMT -5
I was on board starting Whitlock, but in retrospect it was clearly a mistake. He is a dominant reliever, far beyond what he is likely to be as a starter. The hip injury was a bad omen, as well. Seems like the kind of injury that happens when a guy is overworked.
EDIT: That said, I am fine with him stretching out as a starter again in the spring. As it stands, they have Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski, with Seabold, Bello, Groome, Mata as depth. Makes it seem likely that Eovaldi is either traded or QO'ed.
EDIT part deux: I'm also open to trading Houck. He's still got concerning L/R splits that will continue affect his ability to be effective as a starter or a closer if he doesn't figure out how to get lefties out. Until then, he's best used as a set-up man.
vs. L/R: oOPS .746/.523; K 20%/26%; BB 18%/6%
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 26, 2022 12:47:25 GMT -5
Let's just hope that we don't turn Whitlock into Daniel Bard. Or that time they tried Papelbon starting. I've said multiple times and I was called crazy for even suggesting Whitlock should be the closer. He would be an elite 9th inning weapon. You can't count on Houck because he wants to stick to his morals and can't make any trips to Toronto. In the AL East thats a big problem. He should be the swing man. Not Whitlock.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 26, 2022 12:51:52 GMT -5
Who leads the team in wOBA and xwOBA over the last 6 games (starting with the Yankee embarrassments), among the de facto regulars ... with a .416 and .367 respectively?
That's right, Dr. Jekyll or famine, feast and Mr. Hyde himself ... Jackie Bradly, Jr.
Is it possible that he just had one of his slumps, but it was really, really, really, long?
Starting the hot streak with the second Yankee blowout (the first was a typical JBJ "unlucky" game):
686 PA, 41 wRC+, .177 / .243 / .272. 18 PA, 192 wRC+, .333 / .333 / .722.
This is silly, right down to the current SA being an obvoius typo.
The odds of his homering twice in his last 5 games versus his previous suckage, in a sim with his overall numbers the last two years, are 1 in 28 ... significant, but not by a lot. If you add his fanning only twice but ignore the decline in walk rate and don't bother even looking at BABIP (because, like, really?), it's 1 in 159.
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Post by manfred on Jul 26, 2022 12:55:25 GMT -5
Who leads the team in wOBA and xwOBA over the last 6 games (starting with the Yankee embarrassments), among the de facto regulars ... with a .416 and .367 respectively?
That's right, Dr. Jekyll or famine, feast and Mr. Hyde himself ... Jackie Bradly, Jr.
Is it possible that he just had one of his slumps, but it was really, really, really, long?
Starting the hot streak with the second Yankee blowout (the first was a typical JBJ "unlucky" game):
686 PA, 41 wRC+, .177 / .243 / .272. 18 PA, 192 wRC+, .333 / .333 / .722.
This is silly, right down to the current SA being an obvoius typo.
The odds of his homering twice in his last 5 games versus his previous suckage, in a sim with his overall numbers the last two years, are 1 in 28 ... significant, but not by a lot. If you add his fanning only twice but ignore the decline in walk rate and don't bother even looking at BABIP (because, like, really?), it's 1 in 159.
How much of this is his absurd home/away Jeckyll-and-Hydism? At home, he’s at .296/.328/.480… an honest-to-god good player. Away… unspeakable.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,646
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Post by cdj on Jul 26, 2022 12:59:16 GMT -5
Who leads the team in wOBA and xwOBA over the last 6 games (starting with the Yankee embarrassments), among the de facto regulars ... with a .416 and .367 respectively?
That's right, Dr. Jekyll or famine, feast and Mr. Hyde himself ... Jackie Bradly, Jr.
Is it possible that he just had one of his slumps, but it was really, really, really, long?
Starting the hot streak with the second Yankee blowout (the first was a typical JBJ "unlucky" game):
686 PA, 41 wRC+, .177 / .243 / .272. 18 PA, 192 wRC+, .333 / .333 / .722.
This is silly, right down to the current SA being an obvoius typo.
The odds of his homering twice in his last 5 games versus his previous suckage, in a sim with his overall numbers the last two years, are 1 in 28 ... significant, but not by a lot. If you add his fanning only twice but ignore the decline in walk rate and don't bother even looking at BABIP (because, like, really?), it's 1 in 159.
How much of this is his absurd home/away Jeckyll-and-Hydism? At home, he’s at .296/.328/.480… an honest-to-god good player. Away… unspeakable. I’ve been a fan of the sport for 30 years and I’ve never seen anything like it
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 26, 2022 13:36:46 GMT -5
Let's just hope that we don't turn Whitlock into Daniel Bard. Or that time they tried Papelbon starting. Time for our regular reminder that Bard was already starting to fall apart in September 2011 and had already failed dramatically as a starter in the minors prior to becoming a reliever in the first place before they tried to move him into the rotation in 2012. It's not like putting him into the major league rotation ruined an otherwise perfectly fine pitcher. As for Papelbon, I don't even think that lasted more than a couple weeks of ST before he asked to return to the bullpen, right? Not that he really profiled as a good starter with like 1.5 pitches either. Seriously though, what James said. You want your best pitchers pitching more, if they can and if they're still good. Interesting is that there are roughly as many 2.00 ERA relievers this year (34, min. 20 IP) as 3.00 ERA starters (31, min. 50 IP). ERA not the world's best stat but still.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 26, 2022 13:38:10 GMT -5
Let's just hope that we don't turn Whitlock into Daniel Bard. Or that time they tried Papelbon starting. Time for our regular reminder that Bard was already starting to fall apart in September 2011 and had already failed dramatically as a starter in the minors prior to becoming a reliever in the first place before they tried to move him into the rotation in 2012. It's not like putting him into the major league rotation ruined an otherwise perfectly fine pitcher. As for Papelbon, I don't even think that lasted more than a couple weeks of ST before he asked to return to the bullpen, right? Not that he really profiled as a good starter with like 1.5 pitches either. Seriously though, what James said. You want your best pitchers pitching more, if they can and if they're still good. Interesting is that there are roughly as many 2.00 ERA relievers this year (34, min. 20 IP) as 3.00 ERA starters (31, min. 50 IP). ERA not the world's best stat but still. Conversely, I don't think Whitlock's rotation struggles were due to him being in the rotation as much as it was due to him dealing with an injury. I suspect he would have struggled had he been left in the pen as well. I still think his future is in the rotation but at this point the Sox don't have much choice with him this year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 26, 2022 13:44:10 GMT -5
Bard fell apart in Sept 2011. He had that long scoreless appearance/innings streak that ended in August 2011.
Everybody fell apart in September 2011.
Everybody remembers the collapse in Sept 2011.
Some people remember the final game in which they lead 3-2 with 2 outs in the 9th one out (strike) away from victory and the Orioles getting back to back doubles and that blooper that Crawford failed to catch.
What people sometimes forget is that the Sox actually had runners at the corners with none out and the heart of the order up in the top of the 9th with a chance to put the game away and failed to score.
Even David Ortiz failed to come through (for a rare time) in that situation. So if even Ortiz couldn't do it, then nobody else was going to either. They were destined to fail at that point. The perfect storm of everything going wrong.
Thankfully, from a baseball perspective, two years later, they had the perfect storm of everything going right.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 26, 2022 14:24:25 GMT -5
Bard fell apart in Sept 2011. He had that long scoreless appearance/innings streak that ended in August 2011. Everybody fell apart in September 2011. Everybody remembers the collapse in Sept 2011. Some people remember the final game in which they lead 3-2 with 2 outs in the 9th one out (strike) away from victory and the Orioles getting back to back doubles and that blooper that Crawford failed to catch. What people sometimes forget is that the Sox actually had runners at the corners with none out and the heart of the order up in the top of the 9th with a chance to put the game away and failed to score. Even David Ortiz failed to come through (for a rare time) in that situation. So if even Ortiz couldn't do it, then nobody else was going to either. They were destined to fail at that point. The perfect storm of everything going wrong. Thankfully, from a baseball perspective, two years later, they had the perfect storm of everything going right. And they still could've gotten into the playoffs in 2011 if Tampa had lost their last game. The Rays were playing NYY and...NYY lost after being up 6-0 in the 7th. Many Sox fans believe the NYY tanked it, including my wife and I, who were in Maui on our honeymoon and watching the game at the bar in a restaurant.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Jul 26, 2022 14:28:59 GMT -5
Bard fell apart in Sept 2011. He had that long scoreless appearance/innings streak that ended in August 2011. Everybody fell apart in September 2011. Everybody remembers the collapse in Sept 2011. Some people remember the final game in which they lead 3-2 with 2 outs in the 9th one out (strike) away from victory and the Orioles getting back to back doubles and that blooper that Crawford failed to catch. What people sometimes forget is that the Sox actually had runners at the corners with none out and the heart of the order up in the top of the 9th with a chance to put the game away and failed to score. Even David Ortiz failed to come through (for a rare time) in that situation. So if even Ortiz couldn't do it, then nobody else was going to either. They were destined to fail at that point. The perfect storm of everything going wrong. Thankfully, from a baseball perspective, two years later, they had the perfect storm of everything going right. And they still could've gotten into the playoffs in 2011 if Tampa had lost their last game. The Rays were playing NYY and...NYY lost after being up 6-0 in the 7th. Many Sox fans believe the NYY tanked it, including my wife and I, who were in Maui on our honeymoon and watching the game at the bar in a restaurant. Ill never forget watching that game in my dorm room. Pure pain
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Post by benzinger on Jul 26, 2022 14:30:55 GMT -5
Bard fell apart in Sept 2011. He had that long scoreless appearance/innings streak that ended in August 2011. Everybody fell apart in September 2011. Everybody remembers the collapse in Sept 2011. Some people remember the final game in which they lead 3-2 with 2 outs in the 9th one out (strike) away from victory and the Orioles getting back to back doubles and that blooper that Crawford failed to catch. What people sometimes forget is that the Sox actually had runners at the corners with none out and the heart of the order up in the top of the 9th with a chance to put the game away and failed to score. Even David Ortiz failed to come through (for a rare time) in that situation. So if even Ortiz couldn't do it, then nobody else was going to either. They were destined to fail at that point. The perfect storm of everything going wrong. Thankfully, from a baseball perspective, two years later, they had the perfect storm of everything going right. Wasn’t the immortal Ryan Lavarnway batting cleanup for the Sox at the end of that season? That’s how I remember it anyway. Too many painkillers for Tito in those days, I think.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 26, 2022 14:36:56 GMT -5
All his starts were with that injured hip from covering first. I still think he'll be a good starter if they give him the chance I am not saying he couldn’t be a good starter. I just think it turned out to be a mistake this year. That’s total retrospect, because I was in complete agreement with what they did. The other problem starting Whitlock this year was going from: 2020 - 0 innings 2021 - 73 innings 2022 - 160 to 180 innings as a starter? I do not see the Red Sox letting him start 28 games this year. He was either going to get hurt or stuck back in the bullpen around 120 innings especially coming off TJ surgery.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 26, 2022 14:43:17 GMT -5
I am not saying he couldn’t be a good starter. I just think it turned out to be a mistake this year. That’s total retrospect, because I was in complete agreement with what they did. The other problem starting Whitlock this year was going from: 2020 - 0 innings 2021 - 73 innings 2022 - 160 to 180 innings as a starter? I do not see the Red Sox letting him start 28 games this year. He was either going to get hurt or stuck back in the bullpen around 120 innings especially coming off TJ surgery. Having to send him back to the pen would have worked out fine - the plan was probably to do just that when Sale and/or Paxton were ready. But the best laid plans...
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Post by benzinger on Jul 26, 2022 14:47:07 GMT -5
Red Sox now 12-29 against the AL East and 32-14 against the AL Central and West. Truly bizarre.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,111
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Post by jimoh on Jul 26, 2022 14:47:08 GMT -5
Bard fell apart in Sept 2011. He had that long scoreless appearance/innings streak that ended in August 2011. Everybody fell apart in September 2011. Everybody remembers the collapse in Sept 2011. Some people remember the final game in which they lead 3-2 with 2 outs in the 9th one out (strike) away from victory and the Orioles getting back to back doubles and that blooper that Crawford failed to catch. What people sometimes forget is that the Sox actually had runners at the corners with none out and the heart of the order up in the top of the 9th with a chance to put the game away and failed to score. Even David Ortiz failed to come through (for a rare time) in that situation. So if even Ortiz couldn't do it, then nobody else was going to either. They were destined to fail at that point. The perfect storm of everything going wrong. Thankfully, from a baseball perspective, two years later, they had the perfect storm of everything going right. Wasn’t the immortal Ryan Lavarnway batting cleanup for the Sox at the end of that season? That’s how I remember it anyway. Too many painkillers for Tito in those days, I think. Lavarnway, hitting sixth, had two home runs in the second to last game.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 26, 2022 14:47:55 GMT -5
I never wanted Whitlock in the rotation, because he is just too dominant in relief. GMs do not put enough priority on having at least three or four really dominant pitchers of their eight bullpen arms. How many games have the Red Sox lost by blowing ninth inning saves. Most good starters could be dominant relievers. That doesn't mean every good starter should be a reliever instead.
Whitlock has all of 9 career starts, he was battling an injury, and he was still pretty good (3.61 FIP/3.66 xFIP). It's fine if they want to ride him out as a reliever this season, but he has to be given a chance to show whether he can be a top-of-the-rotation starter, for a full season as a minimum. If it doesn't work out then multi-inning relief ace would be a decent fallback plan.
If Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Crawford, Winckowski, Bello, Murphy, Mata, Ward are healthy and enough of them are effective to fill a rotation, than maybe Whitlock is still better used as a multi-inning reliever/closing part of those games with multiple innings.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 26, 2022 14:49:47 GMT -5
And they still could've gotten into the playoffs in 2011 if Tampa had lost their last game. The Rays were playing NYY and...NYY lost after being up 6-0 in the 7th. Many Sox fans believe the NYY tanked it, including my wife and I, who were in Maui on our honeymoon and watching the game at the bar in a restaurant. Ill never forget watching that game in my dorm room. Pure pain I was at a Buffalo Wild Wings. Funny how we all remember that day. Watched the Red Sox lose and then the Rays win back to back. And yes they tanked that game.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 26, 2022 14:51:32 GMT -5
Bard fell apart in Sept 2011. He had that long scoreless appearance/innings streak that ended in August 2011. Everybody fell apart in September 2011. Everybody remembers the collapse in Sept 2011. Some people remember the final game in which they lead 3-2 with 2 outs in the 9th one out (strike) away from victory and the Orioles getting back to back doubles and that blooper that Crawford failed to catch. What people sometimes forget is that the Sox actually had runners at the corners with none out and the heart of the order up in the top of the 9th with a chance to put the game away and failed to score. Even David Ortiz failed to come through (for a rare time) in that situation. So if even Ortiz couldn't do it, then nobody else was going to either. They were destined to fail at that point. The perfect storm of everything going wrong. Thankfully, from a baseball perspective, two years later, they had the perfect storm of everything going right. Wasn’t the immortal Ryan Lavarnway batting cleanup for the Sox at the end of that season? That’s how I remember it anyway. Too many painkillers for Tito in those days, I think. Yep, but he did have 2 HR in the 2nd to last game which they won.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 26, 2022 14:56:57 GMT -5
Remember the 2018 World Series when Cora used his starters in the bullpen and they all looked way better than the relievers? That's not because Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, and Nathan Eovaldi made better relievers than they are starters, it's because relieving is easier. Calling Whitlock's move to the rotation clearly a mistake because he had what amounts to two bad starts is crazy. The idea he can affect more games as a reliever than he can as a starter doesn't hold up to much scrutiny - we've all seen how a good starter who goes deep into games preserves the bullpen, it clearly affects more than just the game he pitches. And when you step back it's kind of self-explanatory: someone who pitches 180 innings has a bigger impact on more outcomes than someone pitching 90 innings. To use an example from the 2021 season, Corbin Burnes had an ERA twice as high as Josh Hader (2.43 to 1.23), and he did it in over twice as many games (60 to 28). But there's absolutely no chance that Hader was more valuable than Burnes, who took Hader's season and added a 3.07 ERA in 108 1/3 more innings. Less "dominant" on its surface but much, much more helpful to the team winning games. That's not to say that Whitlock's upside is Corbin Burnes. But you can't just look at someones stats as a starter and be like "oh well he's a better reliever." Of course he's a better reliever! Every pitcher is more effective in short bursts than he is trying to pace himself through a lineup two or more times. I have no problem with Whitlock going back to the bullpen for the second half of 2022. If they don't want him pushing 120+ innings or whatever, it's the best way to pace him for long term development. But it's pretty apparent he has the upside of a front-line starter, and that's not just projection, it was true in his several very good starts. I agree with all of this. But… this season, the Sox have suffered more from not having a Hader than a Corbin in your scenario. This isn’t a judgement on Whitlock as a starter… it is a judgement on the staff overall. It isn’t really about Whitlock in isolation. Manfred, that is so good it is worth repeating. This isn’t a judgement on Whitlock as a starter… it is a judgement on the staff overall. It isn’t really about Whitlock in isolation!!!!
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