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Post by lonborgski on Jan 1, 2023 20:01:22 GMT -5
Owens problem was always velocity. There's no way to develop it. Unless he was going to be the next Jamie Moyer (highly unlikely), he was never going to be a guy that ever succeeded. There hasn't been a guy who's risen in the farm system as fast as Walter since Mookie, and they're two completely different paths and examples. Ones a position player, another a pitcher. I'd enjoy the ride and see how he looks in spring training, but if he looks like the beginning of last year, the hype train should be in full force. Wow, folks are mis-remembering Owens, and may well have no idea what happened to him. He’s the poster-child for “Sox of that era had no idea how to develop pitchers.”
He had a very promising rookie season. He debuted against the Yankees, gave up 2 hits, a walk, and a run to the first 7 batters, then got 12 guys in a row, 4 on K’s and 2 on popups. They sent him out for the 6th to face Chris Young and A-Rod for the 3rd time, and he gave up hits to both (and was charged with 2 inherited runs). After 2 starts he had a .607 OPS allowed and should have had a 1.80 ERA.
Start 3 he gave up 7 runs (3 HR) in the first 2.1 IP and then was unscored on through 6, ending up with 10 K’s and 1 BB. His 4th and 5th starts were .567 OPS, 1.38 ERA. Start 6, Yankees again, 7 ER in 1.2 IP.
Next 4 starts, .514 OPS, 1.61 ERA. His final start was the only one with nothing good, 7 ER in 4.1 IP.
He finished with average overall numbers over 63 IP, but 53.2 IP were fairly dominant and the other 9.1 were awful. That’s a guy with serious upside.
Admittedly, it would be cool if there were some important stat where he was in eye-opening company on the leaderboard for starters (minimum 60 IP), despite the awful stretches. Something like …
Chris Sale Max Scherzer Clayton Kershaw Henry Owens David Price.
Oh, that’s actually the contact percentage within the zone leaders.
You might well ask, how did he do that throwing just 90 mph? He had always fanned a lot of guys in the minors, so it wasn’t a fluke. But the answer is well-known; as a 6-6 guy he automatically gains some effective velo by releasing the ball closer to home, and he had a delivery that hid the ball. I bet his effective velo was about 95.
The next year he couldn’t throw strikes at all.
Now, there is an anecdotal thing about left-handed pitchers taking longer to get their mechanics down. Jamie Moyer had outlier very good seasons at ages 25 and 30 (the year that his BB% dropped a lot, permanently), but his prime years were 34 to 40. You know about Randy Johnson and that Dodger guy.
It makes perfect neuroscientific sense that lefties take longer to master procedural (“muscle”) memory, as evidenced by the fact that most people are right-handed. The two hemispheres of the brain do sensation and motor control the same way, but are otherwise very different. It makes sense that those differences have an impact on the shared duties. (The popular notions of what the hemispheres do are at best a huge dumbing-down, and I’m 20 years out of date wit the latest science, so I won’t go any deeper. at present.)
It's also very likely true that simple mechanics are easier to learn than funky ones. But I would guess that this is 10% of the of the learning curve length. The rest is your inherent ability to learn.
What did the Red Sox do after 2016? They had Owens abandon the mechanics he’s spent his whole life using, without yet mastering, and were a key component of his success, and had him try to learn a simpler delivery. Which is essentially sending him back in time to little league.
I hope I don’t have to explain why this was a criminally idiotic idea. And this is nor a second guess; when I heard they were planning to do this, I more or less barfed in my brain. To call whoever thought this up “clueless” would be an insult to clueless people. I’ve known sheep that could out-think them. I’ve worn shirts with a higher baseball IQ.
More seriously, all it takes to make this blunder is to have no sense at all as to how pitchers lean their mechanics and why some have mechanics that are more repeatable than others. That ignorance is obviously not defensible.
Was this a Brian Bannister idea? Owens was unhittable at Portand.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 2, 2023 5:16:13 GMT -5
Sorry, but I can't fall for any of those major brain wave differences between RH/LH major sided people, other than each uses a different side of the brain more predominantly.. Nothing else.. That long post above reminds me more of the dribble coming from teachers in early elementary school, who would walk by desks and use a ruler to smack our hands when we would get caught using "the devils hand" to write with. As a lefty.. All my life quite often get a chuckle when see off the wall nonsense like the above written about "us". Throwing a baseball 90 mph to a specific spot 55 feet away, with a specific grip and spin axis, while trying to maximize spin rate, is likely the second most difficult motor task in human history. Hitting the result is of course first.
An otherwise meaningless difference in neural connectivity and/or behavior due to using the right hemisphere instead of the left would be sufficient to create the observed longer learning curve for left-handed pitchers.
Seriously, you're comparing handwriting to pitching? (I am very sorry that your teachers smacked your hand.)
And I just re-read my post and was reminded that it contains a proof of the claim that righties have some kind of motor-control advantage. I'll post a longer version of that tomorrow.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2023 12:07:18 GMT -5
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 12, 2023 12:12:05 GMT -5
If they were to add another starter and Paxton/Sale/Whitlock/Pivetta/Kluber are all healthy to start the year I could see the logic of starting Bello in AAA to maintain maximum depth.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jan 12, 2023 12:22:56 GMT -5
Bello is arguably their best starter, they gotta put him in the opening day rotation.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 12, 2023 12:35:53 GMT -5
Bello is arguably their best starter, they gotta put him in the opening day rotation. If everyone's healthy? Disagree. The other guys can't be optioned so what do they do (assuming they add another starter)? Paxton or Whitlock to the bullpen are the only options I could think of but I'd rather have both those guys starting at the start of the season, you've gotta find out about Whitlock and Paxton as starters.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 12, 2023 12:40:51 GMT -5
Not too worried about who is left out of the rotation to start the year (though it wouldn’t be Bello if I chose). There’s probably only going to be 5 healthy most of the year anyway.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jan 12, 2023 12:47:09 GMT -5
Bello is arguably their best starter, they gotta put him in the opening day rotation. If everyone's healthy? Disagree. The other guys can't be optioned so what do they do (assuming they add another starter)? Paxton or Whitlock to the bullpen are the only options I could think of but I'd rather have both those guys starting at the start of the season, you've gotta find out about Whitlock and Paxton as starters. If everyone is healthy, your rotation is Sale/Kluber/Whitlock/Bello and then figure out what to do with Paxton and Pivetta. My bet would be Paxton getting multi inning relief stints on a regular schedule.
If Bello is in AAA you're lighting WAR on fire, and generating bad will with a guy you want to extent who has already shown he belongs in the majors
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Post by seamus on Jan 12, 2023 12:47:36 GMT -5
I could see a piggybacking situation where they basically combine Sale or Paxton with Whitlock or Bello in order to keep innings under control early on, but they'll be making the team worse if they keep Bello in AAA.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 12, 2023 13:10:31 GMT -5
I could see a piggybacking situation where they basically combine Sale or Paxton with Whitlock or Bello in order to keep innings under control early on, but they'll be making the team worse if they keep Bello in AAA. I don't even know why they'd do that with Bello. He went over 150 IP last season so it's not like his innings need to be limited. Maybe Whitlock and Houck could be the piggybackers to start.
I think the quote from Cora was probably just him being diplomatic or not wanting to make an official statement on Bello or something.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 12, 2023 13:11:31 GMT -5
If everyone's healthy? Disagree. The other guys can't be optioned so what do they do (assuming they add another starter)? Paxton or Whitlock to the bullpen are the only options I could think of but I'd rather have both those guys starting at the start of the season, you've gotta find out about Whitlock and Paxton as starters. If everyone is healthy, your rotation is Sale/Kluber/Whitlock/Bello and then figure out what to do with Paxton and Pivetta. My bet would be Paxton getting multi inning relief stints on a regular schedule.
If Bello is in AAA you're lighting WAR on fire, and generating bad will with a guy you want to extent who has already shown he belongs in the majors
This is how I feel as well, Bello should most certainly be in the rotation out of the gate. Go with a 6 man rotation to start the year for all I care, probably wouldn't be the worst idea to keep the innings down for Sale/Paxton/Whitlock. On the flipside I've seen folks around here throw out that they need to keep Bello's innings down but if you look at his 2022 IP total he hit 152 last year. I don't see any reason why they need to keep his innings down. Edit: Incandenza beat me to the punch
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 12, 2023 13:12:15 GMT -5
If everyone's healthy? Disagree. The other guys can't be optioned so what do they do (assuming they add another starter)? Paxton or Whitlock to the bullpen are the only options I could think of but I'd rather have both those guys starting at the start of the season, you've gotta find out about Whitlock and Paxton as starters. If everyone is healthy, your rotation is Sale/Kluber/Whitlock/Bello and then figure out what to do with Paxton and Pivetta. My bet would be Paxton getting multi inning relief stints on a regular schedule.
If Bello is in AAA you're lighting WAR on fire, and generating bad will with a guy you want to extent who has already shown he belongs in the majors
I'm not finding coddling adults a convincing argument, if Bello looks undeniable in the spring he'll be in the rotation. I can see that he's probably better than Pivetta, but you need Pivetta stretched because someone's probably getting hurt and even if not there's going to be pitch and/or innings limits for Sale and Whitlock at least. If Bello is as good as a healthy Paxton that would be an incredible outcome, so if you have a healthy Paxton I think it's reasonable for him to start in the rotation too. What I think should happen is using Pivetta and/or Paxton as piggyback guys for Sale and Whitlock, and maybe skip a start for Kluber every now and then too, and you let Bello start. I just think there's a reasonable argument if they acquire a guy for it to look like: Sale/Kluber/Whitlock/Pivetta/Paxton/Pitcher X as the rotation, Houck as the piggyback guy, Crawford and Bello both in AAA. Again not what I necessarily think they should do but I don't know why this would be outrageous to start the year.
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Post by jmei on Jan 12, 2023 14:05:20 GMT -5
You're going to have to manage Paxton's innings regardless (he hasn't thrown more than 25 innings since 2019) so I think the odds of him leaving spring training as a traditional "pitch 5+ innings every fifth day" starter are low. Feels like either an opener-type (throw ~3 IP every fifth day) or a bulk/piggyback reliever.
Pivetta is their best bet for bulk innings in their rotation. I think he's a traditional starter all the way.
This is all probably moot. The odds of none of their starting pitchers being fully ramped up by the end of spring training are very low.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jan 12, 2023 22:49:28 GMT -5
I just want Pivetta to be the odd man out until needed due to injury.
Sale/Whitlock/Bello/Kluber then houck/Paxton
To be honest Pivetta and Houck could get traded for OF/SS help. Won’t surprise me at all at this point. Especially if something like Verdugo for Lopez happens like some have mentioned in the off-season thread
Obviously a big if at this point, so we will see
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Jan 13, 2023 10:02:38 GMT -5
I was just thinking that a Paxton/Houck stack would be pretty lethal. Would help Houck face fewer lefties and both could just go once or twice through the order.
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Post by manfred on Jan 13, 2023 10:29:46 GMT -5
I feel like this thread is going two ways at once: there is the line of thinking that says we will have above average pitching. Then there is the question of who will even be starting — or *capable* of starting. If Paxton can’t start, if Bello might be in AAA, etc. (scenarios folks have thrown out) how will this staff be above average?
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 13, 2023 10:34:37 GMT -5
I feel like this thread is going two ways at once: there is the line of thinking that says we will have above average pitching. Then there is the question of who will even be starting — or *capable* of starting. If Paxton can’t start, if Bello might be in AAA, etc. (scenarios folks have thrown out) how will this staff be above average? Well I think I was the only one (here at least) to suggest Bello might be in AAA and I said it only even might happen if everyone else was healthy and ready to start opening day. So I don’t think anyone thinks both those things together are likely to begin the year. That said I think everyone agrees the error bars on the rotation are crazy wide. If Sale and Paxton are healthy and Whitlock and Bello are what we hope it’ll be really good. Or if none of those things happen obviously it’ll be really bad. Probably it’ll be somewhere in between, which could be above average.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 13, 2023 10:43:08 GMT -5
I refuse to let myself think Sale and Paxton will stay healthy this year.
My eyes are set on the young arms. Everything else will be what it will be.
In a perfect world where this roster does latch onto a WC spot and stay healthy, it would be really funny to see a Sale, Kluber, Paxton rotation in the 2023 playoffs.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 13, 2023 10:54:29 GMT -5
I feel like this thread is going two ways at once: there is the line of thinking that says we will have above average pitching. Then there is the question of who will even be starting — or *capable* of starting. If Paxton can’t start, if Bello might be in AAA, etc. (scenarios folks have thrown out) how will this staff be above average? Well I think I was the only one (here at least) to suggest Bello might be in AAA and I said it only even might happen if everyone else was healthy and ready to start opening day. So I don’t think anyone thinks both those things together are likely to begin the year. That said I think everyone agrees the error bars on the rotation are crazy wide. If Sale and Paxton are healthy and Whitlock and Bello are what we hope it’ll be really good. Or if none of those things happen obviously it’ll be really bad. Probably it’ll be somewhere in between, which could be above average. If Bello is healthy and has a full spring training there is about a 0 percent chance he should/would start the year in AAA. In terms of talent and stuff he's arguably the best pitcher on the staff. I don't really see what he could gain by starting the year in AAA at this point. Perhaps if he comes in and struggles to start the year they'd send him down at some point but that'd be about the only way I could see him pitching in the minors again outside of rehab starts.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jan 13, 2023 11:03:13 GMT -5
I was just thinking that a Paxton/Houck stack would be pretty lethal. Would help Houck face fewer lefties and both could just go once or twice through the order. I agree this is a combo I’d like to see, and if you manage it right Houck can probably give you an inning of relief between these combo starts. Paxton 3 innings, Houck 3 innings then bullpen the last 3 innings.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 13, 2023 11:03:24 GMT -5
Well I think I was the only one (here at least) to suggest Bello might be in AAA and I said it only even might happen if everyone else was healthy and ready to start opening day. So I don’t think anyone thinks both those things together are likely to begin the year. That said I think everyone agrees the error bars on the rotation are crazy wide. If Sale and Paxton are healthy and Whitlock and Bello are what we hope it’ll be really good. Or if none of those things happen obviously it’ll be really bad. Probably it’ll be somewhere in between, which could be above average. If Bello is healthy and has a full spring training there is about a 0 percent chance he should/would start the year in AAA. In terms of talent and stuff he's arguably the best pitcher on the staff. I don't really see what he could gain by starting the year in AAA at this point. Perhaps if he comes in and struggles to start the year they'd send him down at some point but that'd be about the only way I could see him pitching in the minors again outside of rehab starts. My case (which I wasn't arguing for, just saying I could understand if the team does) was contingent on everyone being healthy and them adding another starter, so you would have: Sale Pitcher X Kluber Pivetta Whitlock Paxton Bello Houck Crawford Winckowski As your starter depth to begin the year. I think no matter what a 6 man rotation, or at least two piggy back guys makes sense, but if they do a 6 man, the top 6 guys on the list all have fair reasons to be in the rotation, you can't option any of them, and you can option Bello while keeping him on a regular starters rotation in AAA. It's totally fair to think Paxton or Whitlock should be in a piggyback or opener role instead with Bello in the rotation, but I still don't see how sending him to AAA would be so ridiculous in this case. It doesn't matter anyways because I'd bet a good chunk that one of Sale, Kluber, Whitlock and Paxton is not ready to start at the beginning of the year.
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Post by manfred on Jan 13, 2023 11:23:48 GMT -5
If Bello is healthy and has a full spring training there is about a 0 percent chance he should/would start the year in AAA. In terms of talent and stuff he's arguably the best pitcher on the staff. I don't really see what he could gain by starting the year in AAA at this point. Perhaps if he comes in and struggles to start the year they'd send him down at some point but that'd be about the only way I could see him pitching in the minors again outside of rehab starts. My case (which I wasn't arguing for, just saying I could understand if the team does) was contingent on everyone being healthy and them adding another starter, so you would have: Sale Pitcher X Kluber Pivetta Whitlock Paxton Bello Houck Crawford Winckowski As your starter depth to begin the year. I think no matter what a 6 man rotation, or at least two piggy back guys makes sense, but if they do a 6 man, the top 6 guys on the list all have fair reasons to be in the rotation, you can't option any of them, and you can option Bello while keeping him on a regular starters rotation in AAA. It's totally fair to think Paxton or Whitlock should be in a piggyback or opener role instead with Bello in the rotation, but I still don't see how sending him to AAA would be so ridiculous in this case. It doesn't matter anyways because I'd be a good chunk that one of Sale, Kluber, Whitlock and Paxton is not ready to start at the beginning of the year. I’m not sure where pitcher X comes from at this point— the market has dried up, and getting a guy who pushes Bello to AAA will cost a bunch… which would be better used elsewhere like 2b or CF. I guess a mega deal that has both, perhaps, but then you are purging the system.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jan 13, 2023 11:24:22 GMT -5
I refuse to let myself think Sale and Paxton will stay healthy this year. My eyes are set on the young arms. Everything else will be what it will be.
In a perfect world where this roster does latch onto a WC spot and stay healthy, it would be really funny to see a Sale, Kluber, Paxton rotation in the 2023 playoffs. All upside scenarios for the Red Sox to me revolve around Bello and Whitlock harnessing their best days more often. That would go a long way in short and medium term to raise the ceiling. If that happens, Sale gives a half a season of Sale-ness and Kluber holds serve we would have a pretty good rotation all told.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 13, 2023 11:27:21 GMT -5
My case (which I wasn't arguing for, just saying I could understand if the team does) was contingent on everyone being healthy and them adding another starter, so you would have: Sale Pitcher X Kluber Pivetta Whitlock Paxton Bello Houck Crawford Winckowski As your starter depth to begin the year. I think no matter what a 6 man rotation, or at least two piggy back guys makes sense, but if they do a 6 man, the top 6 guys on the list all have fair reasons to be in the rotation, you can't option any of them, and you can option Bello while keeping him on a regular starters rotation in AAA. It's totally fair to think Paxton or Whitlock should be in a piggyback or opener role instead with Bello in the rotation, but I still don't see how sending him to AAA would be so ridiculous in this case. It doesn't matter anyways because I'd be a good chunk that one of Sale, Kluber, Whitlock and Paxton is not ready to start at the beginning of the year. I’m not sure where pitcher X comes from at this point— the market has dried up, and getting a guy who pushes Bello to AAA will cost a bunch… which would be better used elsewhere like 2b or CF. I guess a mega deal that has both, perhaps, but then you are purging the system. I agree it’s unlikely. The only reason I haven’t ruled it out is because the Red Sox are still discussing it publicly as an option. It sounds like basically it would be one of the Marlins guys, if it were to happen. I’m not arguing for doing this. It came up because Cora wouldn’t declare Bello had a guaranteed spot in the rotation and I was presenting a situation where I thought that might be reasonable enough.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 13, 2023 11:38:05 GMT -5
I’m not sure where pitcher X comes from at this point— the market has dried up, and getting a guy who pushes Bello to AAA will cost a bunch… which would be better used elsewhere like 2b or CF. I guess a mega deal that has both, perhaps, but then you are purging the system. I agree it’s unlikely. The only reason I haven’t ruled it out is because the Red Sox are still discussing it publicly as an option. It sounds like basically it would be one of the Marlins guys, if it were to happen. I’m not arguing for doing this. It came up because Cora wouldn’t declare Bello had a guaranteed spot in the rotation and I was presenting a situation where I thought that might be reasonable enough. Even with theoretical pitcher acquisition that would be better than Bello, Bello more than proved last year he should be in the rotation if healthy. He'd still be a safe bet to be better than anyone other than Sale/acquisition. I won't say it's out of the realm of possibilities but if they put Bello in AAA to start the year so they can have Paxton, Kluber and Pivetta in the rotation instead I'd be pretty pissed. He's better than Kluber and Pivetta at this point and I think he's probably better than Paxton who hasn't pitched in the ML in years. Edit: I just looked at Bello's fangraphs page out of curiosity. In 57.1 ML innings he had a 1.3 fWAR last year. The Steamer projection on him for 2023 says 1.6 WAR in 107 IP in the majors this year. That seems way too bearish to me to the point of being a downright ridiculous projection.
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