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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jan 13, 2023 12:01:00 GMT -5
I agree it’s unlikely. The only reason I haven’t ruled it out is because the Red Sox are still discussing it publicly as an option. It sounds like basically it would be one of the Marlins guys, if it were to happen. I’m not arguing for doing this. It came up because Cora wouldn’t declare Bello had a guaranteed spot in the rotation and I was presenting a situation where I thought that might be reasonable enough. Even with theoretical pitcher acquisition that would be better than Bello, Bello more than proved last year he should be in the rotation if healthy. He'd still be a safe bet to be better than anyone other than Sale/acquisition. I won't say it's out of the realm of possibilities but if they put Bello in AAA to start the year so they can have Paxton, Kluber and Pivetta in the rotation instead I'd be pretty pissed. He's better than Kluber and Pivetta at this point and I think he's probably better than Paxton who hasn't pitched in the ML in years. Edit: I just looked at Bello's fangraphs page out of curiosity. In 57.1 ML innings he had a 1.3 fWAR last year. The Steamer projection on him for 2023 says 1.6 WAR in 107 IP in the majors this year. That seems way too bearish to me to the point of being a downright ridiculous projection. Strongly agree. If the Sox are going to build a WS contender fueled by the output from the farm system, when one of those guys is ready, they need to play in the majors. No need to wait until everything is perfect. That time for Bello is now. He needs to be in the rotation from day one and stay there.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 13, 2023 15:18:03 GMT -5
I agree that Bello should be in the rotation as he doesn't have much/anything to prove in AAA and has great upside.
That said, in MLB he had a lower K% and higher BB% than Pivetta while giving up an unsustainably low 0.16 HR/9 - although he did have a very high .404 BABIP. So there's good reason for the projections to be bearish on him, they aren't looking at the fastball velocity and upside the way the scouts would be.
It should also be noted that per PV and piPV his changeup was the only pitch with above average results. Fangraphs refers to his fastball as having 'barrel-finding shape'. He looks like he may be great, but he hasn't been great yet.
If the Red Sox trade for a starter, hopefully it's in conjunction with trading away Pivetta+ for a shortstop.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 14, 2023 19:05:53 GMT -5
Bello is going to get a lot of starts this season. He's also probably going to need his workload managed a bit after throwing 153.1 innings, a career high by more than 35 innings and more than 50 more than he threw in 2021, in that they'll want to make sure he's holding up and not push him, if not necessarily literally keep his innings down.
In other words, he's going to pitch and pitch a lot, but it's not a crisis if he's not pitching every fifth day for the entire season necessarily.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 21, 2023 15:15:03 GMT -5
We now have two sets of projections, Steamer and THE BAT, and via ERA they have Sale as the #1 starter, Whitlock edging Bello for #2, Paxton as #4, and Kluber edging Pivetta for #5.
Of course, projections for Sale and Paxton are guesses, and they had two of the three big differences between the two sources. The third was Bello; I think Steamer is (correctly) tossing out his first stint and THE BAT is not. Projections don't know that Whitlock was pitching injured almost the whole year or that Kluber was among the leaders for not relying on the shift. Or that Bello will be adding Rich Hill's curve, etc.
A nice waste of my time would be to correlate all the projections of free agents with the deals they got. I bet that there's almost none once you get past the sought-after guys. Steamer has Hill 0.28 better than Kluber.
FWIW (the paper it's printed on, I'd guess), Steamer has Sale as a good #2, Bello as a good #3, Whitlock as a #3 on the #4 borderline, Paxton as a pure #4, and Kluber and Pivetta as #5 on the #6 borderline. (That's by ERA rank of the top 150+ pitchers by projected GS.)
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Re Sale and Paxton, how much precedence is there for guys missing 3 full years, and not all because of a single arm injury? I think there's some assumption that they're going to be a bit rusty as a result of the layoff, and I'm not at all sure that this is the case. Procedural ("muscle") memory doesn't work that way. There's a reason that "it's like riding a bike" is a cliche.
I bet I'm not the only one here who's had the experience of going years without exercising a physical skill they were very good at and discovering they still had it. In my case, it was jump shots from near 3-point range (unguarded), and I believe I had nearly a 35-year gap. I hit my second shot.
Granted, it was an unintended bank shot, but a few shots later I heard the first very satisfying swish. How many more reps have Sale and Paxton had?
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Post by bosox904 on Jan 23, 2023 15:55:28 GMT -5
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 23, 2023 21:15:46 GMT -5
[...]
Re Sale and Paxton, how much precedence is there for guys missing 3 full years, and not all because of a single arm injury? I think there's some assumption that they're going to be a bit rusty as a result of the layoff, and I'm not at all sure that this is the case. Procedural ("muscle") memory doesn't work that way. There's a reason that "it's like riding a bike" is a cliche.[...] It was a different game, but what about WWII and, more briefly, the Korean War?
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 23, 2023 23:22:56 GMT -5
[...]
Re Sale and Paxton, how much precedence is there for guys missing 3 full years, and not all because of a single arm injury? I think there's some assumption that they're going to be a bit rusty as a result of the layoff, and I'm not at all sure that this is the case. Procedural ("muscle") memory doesn't work that way. There's a reason that "it's like riding a bike" is a cliche.[...] It was a different game, but what about WWII and, more briefly, the Korean War? Top hitters didn't miss a beat at all after WWII.
Williams wRC+:
221
209 war ages 24-26
215 207
DiMaggio
167 181 143 war ages 28-30 142 152 158
Johnny Mize
174 159 158 war ages 30-32 184 156 155
I don't have a handy list for pitchers who missed '43 to '45, but hitting is harder than pitching.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 29, 2023 0:01:23 GMT -5
Given the sheer number of SPs who need to be "closely monitored," as the expression goes, especially at the beginning of the season, I would propose a 6-man rotation consisting of 8 men. The two recovering lefties would each be paired with a piggy-back righty; as such, every three days the bullpen could get a decent breather. Young upstarts Whitlock and Bello would get an extra day between starts early on to keep their overall IP down. Could Kluber and Pivetta throw an inning each on their day to throw between starts? Could Houck and Crawford do the same?
In the (inevitable) event of injury, you simply revert to a 5-man rotation. Or perhaps, as the season progresses, you drop to a 5-man rotation with one of the starters assuming a long-relief role (where Whitlock has obviously excelled). As Sale and/or Paxton get their legs under them, their piggybacks could migrate to the bullpen or to Worcester as SP depth.
A lot would have to go right for it to work, with only five other RPs (including one who is a one-clean-inning guy). It will be interesting to see how they end up managing so many fragile workloads.
Sale/Houck Kluber Whitlock Paxton/Crawford Pivetta Bello
Jansen Martin Schreiber Rodriguez Kelly/Brasier/German/Mills
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Post by keninten on Jan 29, 2023 1:52:37 GMT -5
Given the sheer number of SPs who need to be "closely monitored," as the expression goes, especially at the beginning of the season, I would propose a 6-man rotation consisting of 8 men. The two recovering lefties would each be paired with a piggy-back righty; as such, every three days the bullpen could get a decent breather. Young upstarts Whitlock and Bello would get an extra day between starts early on to keep their overall IP down. Could Kluber and Pivetta throw an inning each on their day to throw between starts? Could Houck and Crawford do the same? In the (inevitable) event of injury, you simply revert to a 5-man rotation. Or perhaps, as the season progresses, you drop to a 5-man rotation with one of the starters assuming a long-relief role (where Whitlock has obviously excelled). As Sale and/or Paxton get their legs under them, their piggybacks could migrate to the bullpen or to Worcester as SP depth. A lot would have to go right for it to work, with only five other RPs (including one who is a one-clean-inning guy). It will be interesting to see how they end up managing so many fragile workloads. Sale/Houck Kluber Whitlock Paxton/Crawford Pivetta Bello Jansen Martin Schreiber Rodriguez Kelly/Brasier/German/Mills You`d kill the bullpen.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 29, 2023 2:39:38 GMT -5
Where in history has a 6 man rotation been tried successfully ?
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Post by geostorm on Jan 29, 2023 6:59:41 GMT -5
Where in history has a 6 man rotation been tried successfully ? as near as I could find, LA Dodgers, this season, where they utilized the shortened DL rules to help manage SP innings & starts, ending up with 6 SPs with 20 or more starts & a 7th w 15 starts, reaching the WS. Not literally using a 6 man rotation, but, the end result of spreading out the starts across a 7 man core of SPs. www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAD/2018.shtml
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 29, 2023 7:27:17 GMT -5
Where in history has a 6 man rotation been tried successfully ? as near as I could find, LA Dodgers, this season, where they utilized the shortened DL rules to help manage SP innings & starts, ending up with 6 SPs with 20 or more starts & a 7th w 15 starts, reaching the WS. Not literally using a 6 man rotation, but, the end result of spreading out the starts across a 7 man core of SPs. www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAD/2018.shtmlThat was injury circumstance not a planned six man rotation.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 29, 2023 7:34:59 GMT -5
Six man rotations have been talked about by fans for years but they don't happen.
I'm also not convinced that Sale and maybe Paxton are going to want to be babied or that it's even necessary.
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Post by 07redsox on Jan 29, 2023 8:14:08 GMT -5
Six man rotations have been talked about by fans for years but they don't happen. I'm also not convinced that Sale and maybe Paxton are going to want to be babied or that it's even necessary. Haven’t the Angels been using a a 6-man rotation for years now because of Ohtani? Not 100% sure, just something I have heard a few times. Even in discussions about his impending free agency this offseason, I have heard talk about which teams that pursue him could/would be able to use a 6-man rotation.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jan 29, 2023 9:05:11 GMT -5
Six man rotations have been talked about by fans for years but they don't happen. I'm also not convinced that Sale and maybe Paxton are going to want to be babied or that it's even necessary. Haven’t the Angels been using a a 6-man rotation for years now because of Ohtani? Not 100% sure, just something I have heard a few times. Even in discussions about his impending free agency this offseason, I have heard talk about which teams that pursue him could/would be able to use a 6-man rotation. He led the Angels with 28 starts last season. Tied for 22nd in the AL. Looks like they used 4 primary starters and had a few other guys make several starts throughout the year with one making 18 starts. Not sure what was injury related but 28 starts is 1/6 of the games. They may have been purposeful about his starts due to the fact he plays every day. Side note, just looking at his pitching stats alone makes me drool !!!
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jan 29, 2023 12:04:04 GMT -5
6 man rotation wouldn’t be the worst thing to manage some of the guys- Sale, Whitlock, Houck, and Paxton all ended the season injured. Kluber is old and has had injury problems too. Bello will probably need his innings managed
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Post by manfred on Jan 29, 2023 12:13:03 GMT -5
Is this mostly just semantic? I mean, the Sox can use a regular 5-man rotation — but maybe slip a spot start every other go-around for extra rest (coupled with an off day, you could give a guy 6 days off)? That seems at once pretty normal and not really a 6-man rotation.
Also, I am less concerned with rest between starts than I am with pitch counts. If you keep guys low on counts, regular rest should be ok (again, with occasional spot starters and, if necessary, skipped starts here and there as required).
If they are going to be in it until the end, though, they will need to be wary of fatigue. Guys like Bello and Whitlock could be worked harder than they ever have, and Sale wears out even at his best. I am 100% confident they are aware of all this and have ideas for how to manage it.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 29, 2023 12:29:58 GMT -5
Kluber, IP
2018 215 2019 35.2 2020 1 2021 80 2022 164
What manfred said.....
What Sale said "I'll be 34 with a 30 year old arm."
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 30, 2023 0:00:10 GMT -5
I'm not talking about a 6-man rotation for the entire season, I'm talking about the beginning of the year. In the first month of the season, there are only 3 scheduled off days: March 31st (in case Opening Day is snowed out), April 7th (in case Opening Day in Detroit is snowed out), and April 27th. That doesn't allow for many planned days off for guys like Sale and Paxton, who haven't pitched in forever, much less in the freezing cold. I think that a 6-man rotation for the first month would be wise, until you have more built-in off days in May (5/8, 5/11, 5/18, 5/25).
In terms of burning out the bullpen, lots of guys have options, including Schreiber, Kelly, German, Mills, as well as Crawford and Winckowski, if need be. There are enough options there to work guys in and out for a month.
I don't particularly expect them to do it but I think it's possible, particularly for a FO that prides itself on its creativity and the flexibility of its roster.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 1, 2023 0:53:38 GMT -5
Bloom on Paxton relieving...
/photo/1
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Post by keninten on Feb 1, 2023 1:50:05 GMT -5
Bloom on Paxton relieving... /photo/1 I think he could build up some innings in the pen. Maybe just as an opener for a few innings
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 1, 2023 7:39:05 GMT -5
Bloom on Paxton relieving... /photo/1 I think he could build up some innings in the pen. Maybe just as an opener for a few innings I doubt if that's what Paxton has in mind...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 1, 2023 23:07:40 GMT -5
I think he could build up some innings in the pen. Maybe just as an opener for a few innings I doubt if that's what Paxton has in mind... I mean if he wanted a guaranteed chance at starting he should have declined his player option and signed with like the Nationals or whatever. We’ll see how everyone looks in a few weeks, but if he’s the odd man out in the rotation maybe he could get the Whitlock treatment from 2021. Before he ended up as the the relief ace, Whitlock’s tenure began with him coming in for two innings at a time in low leverage spots and followed by several days of strict rest. Wasn’t until it was clear he was the most reliable pitcher in the bullpen/they felt good about his TJ recovery that they escalated things.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Feb 1, 2023 23:55:57 GMT -5
Bloom on Paxton relieving... /photo/1 I think he could build up some innings in the pen. Maybe just as an opener for a few innings This is why I can see them piggybacking someone like Crawford with him every start at the beginning. If Big Maple is only good for 3 IP one day after running into a 30-pitch inning, you've already got Crawford there prepared to go a couple times through the order.
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Post by keninten on Feb 2, 2023 2:59:33 GMT -5
I think he could build up some innings in the pen. Maybe just as an opener for a few innings This is why I can see them piggybacking someone like Crawford with him every start at the beginning. If Big Maple is only good for 3 IP one day after running into a 30-pitch inning, you've already got Crawford there prepared to go a couple times through the order. I don`t think they need to pair him with Crawford. They have Sale, Bello, Kluber, Pivetta, Whitlock, and Houck if an injury occurs. In the bullpen he gets the kid gloves treatment.
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