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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,924
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 16, 2023 12:57:03 GMT -5
This is reassuring ... Pivetta's xwOBA / wOBA as a bulk guy and subsequently:
.163 / .175 .325 / .268 .180 / .286 .085 / .070 .222 / .186
.180 / .270
.349 / .430 .356 / .359 -- 4 seam FB going from awesome to awful in these two outings .245 / .361 last night.
I guessed as much based on his xBA but it's good to know for certain that there was a lot of bad luck involved.
Even better: excluding the 3rd inning he was as dominant as always, .153 / .217. In the 3rd he was .395 / .596, throwing 31 of his 86 pitches. And it was the curve that got killed, .358 / .555 in 7 PA on the day. That's very unusual for him.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,924
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 16, 2023 13:22:40 GMT -5
I have pointed out that I have never, I mean never, correctly predicted Cora's upcoming rotation.
Until a few days ago!
Whereupon I decided I was wrong and did two further versions.
Cora said yesterday that Houck is going to start the first Houston game, to give Paxton an extra day of rest. But of course that gives everyone an extra day, including fragile Sale, wilting Bello, and Crawford who has struggled on 4 days rest.
And it seems obvious that they'll do this again. Pivetta will start the last Yankees game on 4 days rest, but after that everyone is on 5 days.
NYY: Bello, Crawford, Pivetta Hou: Houck, Paxton, Sale, Bello LAD: Crawford, Pivetta, Houck Hou: Paxton, Sale, Bello.
I could see them swapping Paxton and Sale at the end.
The reason why I thought this wouldn't work is that the three guys who can give you length -- Paxton, Sale, and Bello -- are all pitching in succession, with the three short-outing guts following. But It's probably OK to alternate a heavy bullpen workload over three games with a light one over three. Not ideal, but workable.
A final note: since being sent down Walter has pitched innings 1-2 on 5 days rest, 2 to 4 plus an extra out on 6 days, and 1 to 3 on 5 days. This looks like prep for a recall if needed. In a worst-case scenario they could option Murphy and recall Walter just to get a fresh arm; the downgrade isn't that big, and ideally you use these guys in low leverage (with a big lead!).
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Post by carmenfanzone on Aug 16, 2023 13:43:32 GMT -5
I have pointed out that I have never, I mean never, correctly predicted Cora's upcoming rotation.
Until a few days ago!
Whereupon I decided I was wrong and did two further versions.
Cora said yesterday that Houck is going to start the first Houston game, to give Paxton an extra day of rest. But of course that gives everyone an extra day, including fragile Sale, wilting Bello, and Crawford who has struggled on 4 days rest.
And it seems obvious that they'll do this again. Pivetta will start the last Yankees game on 4 days rest, but after that everyone is on 5 days.
NYY: Bello, Crawford, Pivetta Hou: Houck, Paxton, Sale, Bello LAD: Crawford, Pivetta, Houck Hou: Paxton, Sale, Bello.
I could see them swapping Paxton and Sale at the end.
The reason why I thought this wouldn't work is that the three guys who can give you length -- Paxton, Sale, and Bello -- are all pitching in succession, with the three short-outing guts following. But It's probably OK to alternate a heavy bullpen workload over three games with a light one over three. Not ideal, but workable.
A final note: since being sent down Walter has pitched innings 1-2 on 5 days rest, 2 to 4 plus an extra out on 6 days, and 1 to 3 on 5 days. This looks like prep for a recall if needed. In a worst-case scenario they could option Murphy and recall Walter just to get a fresh arm; the downgrade isn't that big, and ideally you use these guys in low leverage (with a big lead!).
Using 6 starters when 2 of them are still on limited pitch counts and another 2 seem to befalling and not going late into games seems like it will tax the bullpen.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 16, 2023 13:47:20 GMT -5
I have pointed out that I have never, I mean never, correctly predicted Cora's upcoming rotation.
Until a few days ago!
Whereupon I decided I was wrong and did two further versions.
Cora said yesterday that Houck is going to start the first Houston game, to give Paxton an extra day of rest. But of course that gives everyone an extra day, including fragile Sale, wilting Bello, and Crawford who has struggled on 4 days rest.
And it seems obvious that they'll do this again. Pivetta will start the last Yankees game on 4 days rest, but after that everyone is on 5 days.
NYY: Bello, Crawford, Pivetta Hou: Houck, Paxton, Sale, Bello LAD: Crawford, Pivetta, Houck Hou: Paxton, Sale, Bello.
I could see them swapping Paxton and Sale at the end.
The reason why I thought this wouldn't work is that the three guys who can give you length -- Paxton, Sale, and Bello -- are all pitching in succession, with the three short-outing guts following. But It's probably OK to alternate a heavy bullpen workload over three games with a light one over three. Not ideal, but workable.
A final note: since being sent down Walter has pitched innings 1-2 on 5 days rest, 2 to 4 plus an extra out on 6 days, and 1 to 3 on 5 days. This looks like prep for a recall if needed. In a worst-case scenario they could option Murphy and recall Walter just to get a fresh arm; the downgrade isn't that big, and ideally you use these guys in low leverage (with a big lead!).
Using 6 starters when 2 of them are still on limited pitch counts and another 2 seem to befalling and not going late into games seems like it will tax the bullpen. Not too much if Whitlock can give them 2-3 innings every few days, I don't think.
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Post by jchang on Aug 16, 2023 13:50:59 GMT -5
this has been a strange year. I seem to recall in previous WS years, we'd be something like bWAR 40 batting and bWAR 20 pitching this year, we are currently bWAR 14.9 batting and bWAR 15.4 pitching we are 9 of 15 in AL batting, and 2 in AL pitching, 7 of 15 in AL bWAR
bWAR by position (bat + defense), not batting
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Post by lronhoyabembe on Aug 16, 2023 14:00:44 GMT -5
this has been a strange year. I seem to recall in previous WS years, we'd be something like bWAR 40 batting and bWAR 20 pitching this year, we are currently bWAR 14.9 batting and bWAR 15.4 pitching we are 9 of 15 in AL batting, and 2 in AL pitching, 7 of 15 in AL bWAR By batting do you mean position player? If so, this makes sense to me. The pitching has been good, but the defense has been atrocious. The runs allowed make the pitching look bad but the penalty is charged to the position players' WAR.
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