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Post by oldfaithful2019 on May 18, 2023 8:09:34 GMT -5
Getting back to a 5 man rotation and a more traditional rest between starts will be good. The outcomes I hope to see from this are two fold.
1. Starters going deeper in to games, not by throwing more pitches but by being more efficient. Bello last night is perfect example.
2. The 8 man bullpen, with a couple guys who should be able to give you length, resulting in Cora taking out a struggling starter sooner. I'm not thinking piggybacks as I think the entire bullpen should be available for fluid use, but when a guy is struggling and you don't want to see a lead get blown or get built up against you, get the starter out. This only gets better when Whitlock is back.
On a side note, guess I'll stop insisting that Pivetta will start 30 games again this year !! Guess that will be Kluber now !
Duck and run........
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Post by Guidas on May 18, 2023 8:18:49 GMT -5
Yeah, I think he got a good talking to after those comments last week. I hope he can be a solid contributor out of the pen moving forward. Or that was a tempest in a teapot over a pretty banal comment that was maybe slightly off course from perfect media communication strategy and it's now been proven to have meant nothing. Exactly. Besides, what athlete worth a damn doesn't want to start? Even closers are, at their core, failed starters.
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Post by pappyman99 on May 18, 2023 8:52:32 GMT -5
Finally! I’ve hated Pivetta in the rotation for a while now. I’d say Kluber has 2 more starts to show something or they may release him or phantom injury il trip for him
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Post by ematz1423 on May 18, 2023 8:59:56 GMT -5
Finally! I’ve hated Pivetta in the rotation for a while now. I’d say Kluber has 2 more starts to show something or they may release him or phantom injury il trip for him Can't say I disagree with this, I don't see Kluber adding any value in the bullpen since I don't see his stuff really playing up any more in the bullpen than it is as a starter. It's unlikely he's going to be able to reach back and add 3-4 extra MPH on his pitches in a shorter stint. Best case scenario Kluber can find his command in the next few weeks and be a guy who goes 5 or 6 innings at 4 ER a game. Not sexy but with the offense they can still win games if he does that with strong enough bullpen pitching. Worst case scenario he continues to look the way he does now and as you said they DFA him or phantom injury him. Though I don't see what a phantom injury would really do to help.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 18, 2023 11:30:44 GMT -5
I think I said this a couple weeks ago, but my rotation still looks like: 1. Sale 2. 3. 4. 5. Everyone else All of the starters have an ERA over 5.25, there's reasons for all of them to go and reasons for all of them to stay. Sale looks like he may be on the uptick, but they need at least 2 more to step up or they're going to need a significant trade to stay competitive. Revising this a little bit since a few things have settled out I think my rotation looks a little different than most: 1. Sale 2. 3. Bello 4. 5. Kluber, Paxton, Whitlock BP. Houck, Pivetta AAA. Crawford I'm not sure when everyone is coming back so just going to assume full health. I've seen enough of Houck, he needs to go back to the pen. I think Eric mentioned it's likely a stamina issue with him which isn't going to get fixed during the season so why waste his elite 3 innings by having him pitch 2-3 poor innings? For as good as he's been, I don't want to see Crawford in the bullpen again this year. I'd start him in AAA until he's needed, and with this starting five I think it's a foregone conclusion that he will be needed a lot. Keep him stretched out so that he can be called on in a moment's notice. Besides, Houck and Winckowski should be more than enough for long relief. I still don't think this team has anyone you'd want to call a #2 starter. Someone might step up, but I'll be pounding the table for a trade. Eovaldi is being missed right now. He was the #2 type starter they could use. I worry about what they have to trade to find a guy like that. At the moment I'd say their best rotation is Sale/Paxton/Bello/Whitlock/Crawford. But who knows how long Paxton stays healthy for?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 18, 2023 11:44:56 GMT -5
I think I said this a couple weeks ago, but my rotation still looks like: 1. Sale 2. 3. 4. 5. Everyone else All of the starters have an ERA over 5.25, there's reasons for all of them to go and reasons for all of them to stay. Sale looks like he may be on the uptick, but they need at least 2 more to step up or they're going to need a significant trade to stay competitive. Revising this a little bit since a few things have settled out I think my rotation looks a little different than most: 1. Sale 2. 3. Bello 4. 5. Kluber, Paxton, Whitlock BP. Houck, Pivetta AAA. Crawford I'm not sure when everyone is coming back so just going to assume full health. I've seen enough of Houck, he needs to go back to the pen. I think Eric mentioned it's likely a stamina issue with him which isn't going to get fixed during the season so why waste his elite 3 innings by having him pitch 2-3 poor innings? For as good as he's been, I don't want to see Crawford in the bullpen again this year. I'd start him in AAA until he's needed, and with this starting five I think it's a foregone conclusion that he will be needed a lot. Keep him stretched out so that he can be called on in a moment's notice. Besides, Houck and Winckowski should be more than enough for long relief. I still don't think this team has anyone you'd want to call a #2 starter. Someone might step up, but I'll be pounding the table for a trade. Crawford was hammered in his first outing (I believe on extended rest), and was hit hard but was lucky in his last outing, after which he immediately went on the IL.
In between, from April 4 to May 2, there were 215 pitchers who faced 50 or more hitters. Crawford faced 74.
Crawford's ranks among the 215:
xwOBA: 1st (.192)
wOBA: 3rd (.185)
He was pretty much the second best pitcher in MLB, after de Grom (.200 / .173 in 94 PA) for nearly a month, with 5 dominant outings in a row, a 5 IP start, and relief stints of 3, 6.1, 2 and 4 IP. I agree with you that he should be starting rather than relieving, but pretty obviously he's one of their five best starters if he is.
I spent all winter arguing that Sale and Paxton would return to their prior statuses as 1 and 2 starters. That has happened so far (granted, just for one start by Paxton). There's no correct argument that we should expect less.
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Post by grandsalami on May 21, 2023 18:08:15 GMT -5
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 21, 2023 18:09:15 GMT -5
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Post by briam on May 21, 2023 18:10:06 GMT -5
We’ve officially reached the “what are we even doing here” point with Kluber.
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Post by grandsalami on May 21, 2023 18:22:52 GMT -5
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Post by carmenfanzone on May 21, 2023 22:47:47 GMT -5
We’ve officially reached the “what are we even doing here” point with Kluber. Agreed. At this point it looks like the best rotation might be Sale, Paxton, Bello, Whitlock, and Crawford. I just don't see the point in continuing to run Kluber out there.
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Post by bosoxnation on May 21, 2023 23:01:55 GMT -5
We’ve officially reached the “what are we even doing here” point with Kluber. Agreed. At this point it looks like the best rotation might be Sale, Paxton, Bello, Whitlock, and Crawford. I just don't see the point in continuing to run Kluber out there. Pretty sure Cora is now verbally telling him. This is your last chance. It’s probably more of a respect thing. Can’t get a bad rep for not letting vets battle through it or free agency will be tougher. I just feel like he did a very decent job in this division last year and it’s like he totally fell off. Sucks. I just wanted what he did last year. I’m sure that’s what Bloom/Cora were expecting as well.
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Post by blizzards39 on May 22, 2023 2:53:55 GMT -5
Agreed. At this point it looks like the best rotation might be Sale, Paxton, Bello, Whitlock, and Crawford. I just don't see the point in continuing to run Kluber out there. Pretty sure Cora is now verbally telling him. This is your last chance. It’s probably more of a respect thing. Can’t get a bad rep for not letting vets battle through it or free agency will be tougher. I just feel like he did a very decent job in this division last year and it’s like he totally fell off. Sucks. I just wanted what he did last year. I’m sure that’s what Bloom/Cora were expecting as well. I think the team is buying as much time on Whitlock and Paxton as possible. There is 115 games to go. How much can we expect outa Sale/ Pax and even Whitlock and Bello. Far too many times I’ve saw disasters down the stretch without MLB capible arms. The Sox have to be very carefull here how there proceed
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Post by kwodes on May 26, 2023 6:12:02 GMT -5
We could use Ohtani in the rotation. ChatGPT suggested this trade...
Boston Red Sox Receives:
Shohei Ohtani (Starting Pitcher/Designated Hitter) Los Angeles Angels Receives:
Chris Sale (Starting Pitcher) Bobby Dalbec (First Baseman/Third Baseman) Tanner Houck (Pitching Prospect) Jay Groome (Pitching Prospect)
Seems fair to me
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manfred
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Post by manfred on May 26, 2023 7:59:59 GMT -5
We could use Ohtani in the rotation. ChatGPT suggested this trade... Boston Red Sox Receives: Shohei Ohtani (Starting Pitcher/Designated Hitter) Los Angeles Angels Receives: Chris Sale (Starting Pitcher) Bobby Dalbec (First Baseman/Third Baseman) Tanner Houck (Pitching Prospect) Jay Groome (Pitching Prospect) Seems fair to me Oh man… I bet that would totally happen if we still had Jay Groome. But that is the only thing holding it back.
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Post by seamus on May 26, 2023 13:32:37 GMT -5
We could use Ohtani in the rotation. ChatGPT suggested this trade... Boston Red Sox Receives: Shohei Ohtani (Starting Pitcher/Designated Hitter) Los Angeles Angels Receives: Chris Sale (Starting Pitcher) Bobby Dalbec (First Baseman/Third Baseman) Tanner Houck (Pitching Prospect) Jay Groome (Pitching Prospect) Seems fair to me When I asked ChatGPT, it said that the Red Sox might consider including the following types of players in a trade proposal: - Pitching Prospects
- Major League Pitchers
- Positional Prospects
- Major League Position Players
Great insight, AI!
I then asked for some specific prospects, and it suggested Casas, Houck, Downs, and Gilberto Jimenez.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 26, 2023 14:13:58 GMT -5
We could use Ohtani in the rotation. ChatGPT suggested this trade... Boston Red Sox Receives: Shohei Ohtani (Starting Pitcher/Designated Hitter) Los Angeles Angels Receives: Chris Sale (Starting Pitcher) Bobby Dalbec (First Baseman/Third Baseman) Tanner Houck (Pitching Prospect) Jay Groome (Pitching Prospect) Seems fair to me When I asked ChatGPT, it said that the Red Sox might consider including the following types of players in a trade proposal: - Pitching Prospects
- Major League Pitchers
- Positional Prospects
- Major League Position Players
Great insight, AI!
I then asked for some specific prospects, and it suggested Casas, Houck, Downs, and Gilberto Jimenez.
That's it, I've seen enough. Boston needs to hire ChatGPT as their new GM! Who needs Bloom as he's just a mere human who probably never even thought of these great packages to get Ohtani! Hire ChatGPT and the Sox will win all the WS!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 28, 2023 12:40:00 GMT -5
In 57 games, the Red Sox have gotten just 12 Quality Statcast starts from their projected 1 through 4 starters. (Which is to say, a start with better-than-average xwOBA). That's pretty dire, right?
It breaks down this way (with the % of starts made by the top 4 relative to 4/5 of the games)
First 15 games: 4 starts, 1 quality (33%, 25%)
Next 22 games: 10 starts, 4 quality (56%, 40%) Last 15 games: 10 starts, 7 quality (83%, 70%)
Details:
Sale 1/3, Whitlock 0/1 Sale 3/4, Whitlock 1/2, Bello 0/4 Sale 3/3, Bello 2/3, Whitlock 1/2, Paxton 1/3
There's every reason to believe that Paxton will return to his old form on a regular basis, and within the next few starts.
You'll note that the 2 through 4 starters had 1 good start in the first 37 games. One! That's trending up, to say the least. Bello and Whitlock are coming off outstanding starts as expected.
I've lost count of how many nationally-known sportswriters have more or less stated that the necessary rotation improvement is a crap shoot going forward. (It's either 2 or 3 guys ... that I know of.)
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Post by bosoxnation on May 28, 2023 13:09:40 GMT -5
In 57 games, the Red Sox have gotten just 12 Quality Statcast starts from their projected 1 through 4 starters. (Which is to say, a start with better-than-average xwOBA). That's pretty dire, right?
It breaks down this way (with the % of starts made by the top 4 relative to 4/5 of the games)
First 15 games: 4 starts, 1 quality (33%, 25%)
Next 22 games: 10 starts, 4 quality (56%, 40%) Last 15 games: 10 starts, 7 quality (83%, 70%)
Details:
Sale 1/3, Whitlock 0/1 Sale 3/4, Whitlock 1/2, Bello 0/4 Sale 3/3, Bello 2/3, Whitlock 1/2, Paxton 1/3
There's every reason to believe that Paxton will return to his old form on a regular basis, and within the next few starts.
You'll note that the 2 through 4 starters had 1 good start in the first 37 games. One! That's trending up, to say the least. Bello and Whitlock are coming off outstanding starts as expected.
I've lost count of how many nationally-known sportswriters have more or less stated that the necessary rotation improvement is a crap shoot going forward. (It's either 2 or 3 guys ... that I know of.)
Damn. I love your work! Thanks for the knowledge!
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on May 28, 2023 20:02:37 GMT -5
A rotation of:
Sale Paxton Whitlock Bello Houck
looks very promising, to say the least, for the rest of 2023.
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Post by bosoxnation on May 28, 2023 22:29:29 GMT -5
A rotation of: Sale Paxton Whitlock Bello Houck looks very promising, to say the least, for the rest of 2023. Unfortunately health will play an issue so we need to capitalize while they are all healthy!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 8, 2023 17:45:08 GMT -5
Over the last 8 games, the Sox starters have put up a .275 xwOBA. (That includes two half-starts by Crawford, so it's reall7 7 starts worth of pitching.)
How good is that? Among the 150 SP who have faced the most hitters, that would rank 7th.
Paxton also has two of the starts, and the others are Sale, Whitlock, Houck, and Bello.
(That we went 3-5 in those games is crazy. wOBA allowed was .295.)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 8, 2023 17:54:49 GMT -5
There's every reason to believe that Paxton will return to his old form on a regular basis, and within the next few starts.
I've lost count of how many nationally-known sportswriters have more or less stated that the necessary rotation improvement is a crap shoot going forward. (It's either 2 or 3 guys ... that I know of.)
Paxton's two starts after I wrote that, .254 and .252 xwOBA. Joe Ryan is the only pitcher in MLB who has averaged better than that.
I remain convinced that, unless there's a host of new injuries, this team will have a monster second half and make the playoffs.
I have a before and after breakdowns of the top 4 guys (all of whom were of course coming off injuries) that I should be putting up late tonight.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jun 8, 2023 18:27:20 GMT -5
I am now convinced that the Sox are doing everything possible to provide at least 5 days between starts for the foreseeable future. Must be to manage workload this season which I guess makes sense considering the young/low mileage arms and injury recoveries in the rotation. Some of course both.
The hopeful benefit will be strong arms down the stretch and beyond if the get back in to the playoff hunt.
There will be need for spot starts and or openers, under this scenario. I'll be interested in following this as the season rolls on. Got bet that Ryan Walter gets his first chance very soon.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jun 9, 2023 14:46:03 GMT -5
I'm not convinced Chris Sale is real. I think he's fully theoretical at this point.
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