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Post by notstarboard on Jun 9, 2023 14:51:12 GMT -5
I'm not convinced Chris Sale is real. I think he's fully theoretical at this point. Oof
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jun 9, 2023 14:52:25 GMT -5
Man, I hate to be reactionary, but I think it's time to seriously start thinking about selling at the deadline...
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 9, 2023 15:05:38 GMT -5
Man, I hate to be reactionary, but I think it's time to seriously start thinking about selling at the deadline... Not going to outright disagree but at least we have a month and a half until we get to that point to really assess, that being said the arrow certainly seems to be trending downwards. Even that being said what do they really have to sell at the deadline? Paxton and?
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jun 9, 2023 15:09:01 GMT -5
Man, I hate to be reactionary, but I think it's time to seriously start thinking about selling at the deadline... Not going to outright disagree but at least we have a month and a half until we get to that point to really assess, that being said the arrow certainly seems to be trending downwards. Even that being said what do they really have to sell at the deadline? Paxton and? Duvall , JT, Kiké & Kenley come to mind
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Post by incandenza on Jun 9, 2023 15:09:26 GMT -5
Man, I hate to be reactionary, but I think it's time to seriously start thinking about selling at the deadline... Not going to outright disagree but at least we have a month and a half until we get to that point to really assess, that being said the arrow certainly seems to be trending downwards. Even that being said what do they really have to sell at the deadline? Paxton and? Paxton, Turner, Duvall, Martin. Verdugo and Jansen if they really want to break the glass.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 9, 2023 15:17:21 GMT -5
Fair enough I wasn't really taking a few of those guys into account as I feel like they'd be lucky to get a bag of balls for them but true if they really want to break the glass then they all make sense.
I'd be on board to deal Paxton, Turner, Duvall, Hernandez since they're FAs at end of year and could all be gone anyway. Jansen while he's been solid I'd be fine to trade since it's kind of silly to spend $16M on a closer if your team isn't any good and they could probably use that money better elsewhere. Martin and Verdugo I'd keep since they are both signed to reasonable deals or at least in Verdugo's contract will be arb eligible at probably not large $s. Feels like dealing Martin and Verdugo is waving the white flag on 2024 which at that point you may as well just clean house in the baseball ops department too while they're at it.
But let's see where they stand come July 1st before really going down the firesale path, even though I asked the question to begin with ha. Since it's a rotation thread, Paxton has looked good, Bello, Whitlock and Houck have talent and maybe Crawford can be a solid 5th guy. Is Paxton/Bello/Whitlock/Houck/Crawford sexy or what any of wanted to see as a rotation as of June 9th? Probably not but if the offense can wake up it could still win some games I think.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 9, 2023 15:34:18 GMT -5
The problem for Sale appears to be that the action of throwing a baseball causes his bones to shatter.
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Post by greenmonster on Jun 9, 2023 15:42:45 GMT -5
Am I the only one confused, is its Sales Shoulder or his Rib?
nm: Read it too quickly, rib injury was in reference to 2022 IL
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,515
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Post by shagworthy on Jun 9, 2023 15:43:00 GMT -5
Fair enough I wasn't really taking a few of those guys into account as I feel like they'd be lucky to get a bag of balls for them but true if they really want to break the glass then they all make sense. I'd be on board to deal Paxton, Turner, Duvall, Hernandez since they're FAs at end of year and could all be gone anyway. Jansen while he's been solid I'd be fine to trade since it's kind of silly to spend $16M on a closer if your team isn't any good and they could probably use that money better elsewhere. Martin and Verdugo I'd keep since they are both signed to reasonable deals or at least in Verdugo's contract will be arb eligible at probably not large $s. Feels like dealing Martin and Verdugo is waving the white flag on 2024 which at that point you may as well just clean house in the baseball ops department too while they're at it. But let's see where they stand come July 1st before really going down the firesale path, even though I asked the question to begin with ha. Since it's a rotation thread, Paxton has looked good, Bello, Whitlock and Houck have talent and maybe Crawford can be a solid 5th guy. Is Paxton/Bello/Whitlock/Houck/Crawford sexy or what any of wanted to see as a rotation as of June 9th? Probably not but if the offense can wake up it could still win some games I think. I'd like to keep Turner around, if for no other reason than I think he could be a good mentor to Casas while still giving us someone to cheer for, but yah, the rest of them, sell to the highest bidder, which really only Paxton and Duvall would get us anything at this point. Like you said, though this is the pitching board, I'm still not keen on selling on Verdugo. This is one time where I disagree with Cora's take and actions. On any given night Raffy does the same thing, and while I'm not condoning the behavior, I think it was pretty s**tty to make a martyr out of Doogie and shame him in the press. Cora's frustrated because he was handed a bad team, but his frustration is misplaced, and honestly, he's just as responsible when he keeps putting Kiké out there at SS. Right now I place the blame at 60% Bloom, 30% Cora, 10% assortment of players being misplayed due to the first 2.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jun 9, 2023 15:52:21 GMT -5
They aren't going to sell. They should but they wont. Chris Sale should never start for this team again. Hopefully they embrace Chris Sale as a closer next year. Obviously has the stuff but can't hold up as a starter.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 9, 2023 19:23:24 GMT -5
They aren't going to sell. They should but they wont. Chris Sale should never start for this team again. Hopefully they embrace Chris Sale as a closer next year. Obviously has the stuff but can't hold up as a starter. How can you possibly assume he would hold up as a closer?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 9, 2023 19:36:40 GMT -5
They aren't going to sell. They should but they wont. Chris Sale should never start for this team again. Hopefully they embrace Chris Sale as a closer next year. Obviously has the stuff but can't hold up as a starter. How can you possibly assume he would hold up as a closer? He wouldn't. Doubt he'd be able to go back to back days. The guy is still an ace who can go 8 innings, but only during the rare times he's healthy.
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Post by keninten on Jun 9, 2023 19:46:56 GMT -5
A $38 mil back end of the bullpen with Kenley.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 15, 2023 8:47:27 GMT -5
All five starters in the current rotation have an xFIP under 4.00.
Bello: 3.92 Whitlock: 3.91 Houck: 3.71 Crawford: 3.32 Paxton: 3.10
I think this is sort of vindicating my thought going into the season that with like 8 starters, each of whom is a big question mark, things would probably turn out okay because with that many options you only need to hit on about half of them. So we have a very solid looking rotation despite Pivetta disappointing, Kluber imploding, and Sale most likely being out for the rest of the year.
Of course the caveat here is that now we have used up all the margin for error and another injury would open up a hole in the rotation. Also in an ideal world Houck would be in some role where he never has to go through a lineup a third time.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 15, 2023 9:09:18 GMT -5
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,791
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Post by mobaz on Jun 15, 2023 9:37:04 GMT -5
All five starters in the current rotation have an xFIP under 4.00.
Bello: 3.92 Whitlock: 3.91 Houck: 3.71 Crawford: 3.32 Paxton: 3.10
I think this is sort of vindicating my thought going into the season that with like 8 starters, each of whom is a big question mark, things would probably turn out okay because with that many options you only need to hit on about half of them. So we have a very solid looking rotation despite Pivetta disappointing, Kluber imploding, and Sale most likely being out for the rest of the year.
Of course the caveat here is that now we have used up all the margin for error and another injury would open up a hole in the rotation. Also in an ideal world Houck would be in some role where he never has to go through a lineup a third time.
I'd rather this than the alternative, but while the young MLB guys have all hit/exceeded our hopes the AAA starters have all taken huge steps backwards (Mata/Walter/Murphy) so the next "extra start" is gonna have to be one of our failed veteran starters. All said, I'm super psyched about the work the four young guys have done recently.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jun 15, 2023 10:04:38 GMT -5
Whitlock since coming off the IL: 4 GS 23.0 IP 8.61 K/9 1.57 BB/9 3.13 ERA 3.01 FIP 0.6 WAR. This is the type of guy I was really hoping for heading into the season. His 3 pitch mix allows him to turn a lineup over when he's on and he can command all of them. Here is some notable stuff per Statcast since his callup:
He has induced swinging strikes on 14.6% of his pitches, 11th best in baseball among pitchers that have thrown at least 300 p in that timeframe:
He has been particularly good at getting batters to chase though - 33 swings on pitches out of the zone, good for second most in baseball:
His quality of contact has been great too. He's given up only 4 barrels on 369 pitches. That 1.1% rate is good for 15th in baseball:
His overall xwOBA in that timeframe is .315, which would be 18th best. You'll also notice Paxton is all over these charts too which is really nice to see.
All of this is obviously great. It's only been 4 starts and I am as guilty as anyone of getting excited too soon, but Whitlock generates a lot of swing-and-miss, particularly out of the zone, and combines it with soft contact and great command. He is as exciting as any pitcher in the system.
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Post by jmei on Jun 15, 2023 10:19:38 GMT -5
All five starters in the current rotation have an xFIP under 4.00. Bello: 3.92 Whitlock: 3.91 Houck: 3.71 Crawford: 3.32 Paxton: 3.10 I think this is sort of vindicating my thought going into the season that with like 8 starters, each of whom is a big question mark, things would probably turn out okay because with that many options you only need to hit on about half of them. So we have a very solid looking rotation despite Pivetta disappointing, Kluber imploding, and Sale most likely being out for the rest of the year. Of course the caveat here is that now we have used up all the margin for error and another injury would open up a hole in the rotation. Also in an ideal world Houck would be in some role where he never has to go through a lineup a third time.
It's great that they settled into what looks like a decent rotation now that we're in in mid June. But what it took to get there included nine bad starts from Corey Kluber (6.26 ERA/6.59 FIP), eight bad starts from Nick Pivetta (6.30 ERA/5.75 FIP) and a non-competitive start from Matt Dermody, and now they're below .500 with 11.2% playoff odds. Yes, if you throw enough spaghetti against the wall, you'll get some to stick eventually, but you might lose a bunch of games in the meantime cycling through guys who couldn't cut it, which is what ended up happening.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 15, 2023 10:23:55 GMT -5
I don't know if that's fair. Kluber and Pivetta were both reasonable guys to give a chance to at the start of the season. Bello, Whitlock, Crawford and Paxton all missed time, too. I'm not sure how they were supposed to get to this five significantly faster.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 15, 2023 10:31:15 GMT -5
All five starters in the current rotation have an xFIP under 4.00. Bello: 3.92 Whitlock: 3.91 Houck: 3.71 Crawford: 3.32 Paxton: 3.10 I think this is sort of vindicating my thought going into the season that with like 8 starters, each of whom is a big question mark, things would probably turn out okay because with that many options you only need to hit on about half of them. So we have a very solid looking rotation despite Pivetta disappointing, Kluber imploding, and Sale most likely being out for the rest of the year. Of course the caveat here is that now we have used up all the margin for error and another injury would open up a hole in the rotation. Also in an ideal world Houck would be in some role where he never has to go through a lineup a third time.
It's great that they settled into what looks like a decent rotation now that we're in in mid June. But what it took to get there included nine bad starts from Corey Kluber (6.26 ERA/6.59 FIP), eight bad starts from Nick Pivetta (6.30 ERA/5.75 FIP) and a non-competitive start from Matt Dermody, and now they're below .500 with 11.2% playoff odds. Yes, if you throw enough spaghetti against the wall, you'll get some to stick eventually, but you might lose a bunch of games in the meantime cycling through guys who couldn't cut it, which is what ended up happening. Yes, that's true. But what's the alternative? Having 5 very good healthy starters would be nice, but how many teams manage that? The Yankees have gotten 38 starts from pitchers who aren't among their top 5 starters. The Blue Jays have been healthy but Manoah, Kikuchi, and arguably Bassitt have just sucked.
And the team's swoon coincides with the offense going into hibernation. Weirdly, it also coincides with the starting rotation getting a lot better, so it seems hard to pin their below-.500 record on the bad early season pitching performances.
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Post by jmei on Jun 15, 2023 10:35:47 GMT -5
I don't know if that's fair. Kluber and Pivetta were both reasonable guys to give a chance to at the start of the season. Bello, Whitlock, Crawford and Paxton all missed time, too. I'm not sure how they were supposed to get to this five significantly faster. I'm more criticizing the idea that having a lot of decent options means that you'll end up with good production at a given spot. Yes, more options means better odds that you'll land on decent production eventually, but it's often a bumpy process before you figure out who those guys are.
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Post by jmei on Jun 15, 2023 10:40:57 GMT -5
It's great that they settled into what looks like a decent rotation now that we're in in mid June. But what it took to get there included nine bad starts from Corey Kluber (6.26 ERA/6.59 FIP), eight bad starts from Nick Pivetta (6.30 ERA/5.75 FIP) and a non-competitive start from Matt Dermody, and now they're below .500 with 11.2% playoff odds. Yes, if you throw enough spaghetti against the wall, you'll get some to stick eventually, but you might lose a bunch of games in the meantime cycling through guys who couldn't cut it, which is what ended up happening. Yes, that's true. But what's the alternative? Having 5 very good healthy starters would be nice, but how many teams manage that? The Yankees have gotten 38 starts from pitchers who aren't among their top 5 starters. The Blue Jays have been healthy but Manoah, Kikuchi, and arguably Bassitt have just sucked.
And the team's swoon coincides with the offense going into hibernation. Weirdly, it also coincides with the starting rotation getting a lot better, so it seems hard to pin their below-.500 record on the bad early season pitching performances.
It's less a criticism of their team-building philosophy (you do the best with the tools you have) and more a criticism of how we (you) evaluate teams with a lot of higher-risk options. Just because you have a lot of guys with upside, some of whom will likely end up hitting a 75th+ percentile projection, doesn't necessarily mean you'll end up with good production overall because you still have to churn through the guys who underperformed as well. I don't pin the entire record on the starting pitching but it seems beyond reproach that the bad starts they've gotten from Kluber and Pivetta have hurt the team.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 15, 2023 10:52:07 GMT -5
Yes, that's true. But what's the alternative? Having 5 very good healthy starters would be nice, but how many teams manage that? The Yankees have gotten 38 starts from pitchers who aren't among their top 5 starters. The Blue Jays have been healthy but Manoah, Kikuchi, and arguably Bassitt have just sucked.
And the team's swoon coincides with the offense going into hibernation. Weirdly, it also coincides with the starting rotation getting a lot better, so it seems hard to pin their below-.500 record on the bad early season pitching performances.
It's less a criticism of their team-building philosophy (you do the best with the tools you have) and more a criticism of how we (you) evaluate teams with a lot of higher-risk options. Just because you have a lot of guys with upside, some of whom will likely end up hitting a 75th+ percentile projection, doesn't necessarily mean you'll end up with good production overall because you still have to churn through the guys who underperformed as well. I don't pin the entire record on the starting pitching but it seems beyond reproach that the bad starts they've gotten from Kluber and Pivetta have hurt the team. It's a fair point in general, but it's a bit funny in this case because Kluber and Pivetta were probably seen as their most stable high-floor/low-ceiling options going into the season. E.g., there was a whole discussion in this thread about how, sure, Pivetta isn't flashy, but he's sure bet to give you a ton of innings as a starter, and now here we are...
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Post by dcb26 on Jun 15, 2023 17:52:13 GMT -5
Yes, that's true. But what's the alternative? Having 5 very good healthy starters would be nice, but how many teams manage that? The Yankees have gotten 38 starts from pitchers who aren't among their top 5 starters. The Blue Jays have been healthy but Manoah, Kikuchi, and arguably Bassitt have just sucked.
And the team's swoon coincides with the offense going into hibernation. Weirdly, it also coincides with the starting rotation getting a lot better, so it seems hard to pin their below-.500 record on the bad early season pitching performances.
It's less a criticism of their team-building philosophy (you do the best with the tools you have) and more a criticism of how we (you) evaluate teams with a lot of higher-risk options. Just because you have a lot of guys with upside, some of whom will likely end up hitting a 75th+ percentile projection, doesn't necessarily mean you'll end up with good production overall because you still have to churn through the guys who underperformed as well. I don't pin the entire record on the starting pitching but it seems beyond reproach that the bad starts they've gotten from Kluber and Pivetta have hurt the team. This seems like a reach to me. How many teams either need only 5 starters, or get even average performance out of the extra starters they need?
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Post by notnickyorke on Jun 17, 2023 13:46:10 GMT -5
If Houke is out for any significant amount of time, isn't the obvious move to put Pavetta or Kluber back in the rotation? They switched Pivetta to a one inning guy pretty quick, but has only been out of the rotation for about a month. I have more faith in him then Kluber. The options in the minors don't look promising. Walter and Drohan don't look ready yet, and Murphy is now pitching in relief.
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