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Post by wcsoxfan on Jun 17, 2023 16:25:01 GMT -5
All five starters in the current rotation have an xFIP under 4.00. Bello: 3.92 Whitlock: 3.91 Houck: 3.71 Crawford: 3.32 Paxton: 3.10 I think this is sort of vindicating my thought going into the season that with like 8 starters, each of whom is a big question mark, things would probably turn out okay because with that many options you only need to hit on about half of them. So we have a very solid looking rotation despite Pivetta disappointing, Kluber imploding, and Sale most likely being out for the rest of the year. Of course the caveat here is that now we have used up all the margin for error and another injury would open up a hole in the rotation. Also in an ideal world Houck would be in some role where he never has to go through a lineup a third time.
Don't forget: their 3 big pitching prospects in AAA (ranked 5th, 9th and 17th overall) have been awful/hurt. So the projected reinforcements haven't been available.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jun 17, 2023 19:53:26 GMT -5
And now Houck is down, so there's problems looming.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jun 17, 2023 20:35:30 GMT -5
And now Houck is down, so there's problems looming. Kluber may get a chance to save face and make a few starts in Houk's absence. Short of a trade, there really are no other options. Pivetta really can't be removed from the pen now.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 18, 2023 1:47:37 GMT -5
All five starters in the current rotation have an xFIP under 4.00.
Bello: 3.92 Whitlock: 3.91 Houck: 3.71 Crawford: 3.32 Paxton: 3.10
I think this is sort of vindicating my thought going into the season that with like 8 starters, each of whom is a big question mark, things would probably turn out okay because with that many options you only need to hit on about half of them. So we have a very solid looking rotation despite Pivetta disappointing, Kluber imploding, and Sale most likely being out for the rest of the year.
Of course the caveat here is that now we have used up all the margin for error and another injury would open up a hole in the rotation. Also in an ideal world Houck would be in some role where he never has to go through a lineup a third time.
Someone as savvy as you using xFIP as a seemingly meaningful stat got me thinking.
FIP and xFIP were useful stats before Statcast, because there is so much noise in the results after the ball leaves the bat.
Statcast -- specifically xwOBA on fair batted balls -- has not just made FIP irrelevant, it has exposed it as a colossal misunderstanding. While it's true pitchers have limited control of balls in play because of all the noise, it has never been true that pitchers do not vary much in the quality of contact they give up. Which was the belief that made FIP reasonable.
(Geekage notes for this study will be added sometime in the next two days.)
Last year (chosen as a full sample size), for regular starting pitchers, the average xwOBA on batted balls was .363. The individual numbers run on a continuum from .307 to .412.
Fourteen of the 15 best pitchers at limiting good contact (.307 to .333 contact-xwOBA, or cxwOBA for short) had above-average strikeout / walk results (i.e., their xwOBA on SO, BB, and HBP was less than the league average of .190), and the exception, Framber Valdez, was just a bit below (.199). These guys were collectively 20% better than average on balls not in play.
As you move down the list, you start encountering guys like Martin Perez (16th, but 100 in K/W) who limit hard contact by nibbling, and guys like Michael Kopech (21st, but 134 in K/W), wild but with velocity and stuff that that are just hard to square up.
At the other end, 19 of the 24 guys with the worst contact allowed were below average in K/W, and all but two of the exceptions were just a bit above average. The remaining 22 guys averaged .216, 14% worse than average.
One of the exceptions ranked 133 in quality of contact allowed but 9th in K/W, and the the other ranked 135 and (tied for) 10th. An eerie similarity! These guys pound the zone and if they give up some solo homers, so be it. They are of course Gerrit Cole and Nate Eovaldi.
There are enough guys with unusual approaches or skill sets to bring the correlation of K/W and cxwOBA down to .25. But that is still very significant (p =.002). It should be possible to divide pitchers into groups and isolate a population of pitchers for whom K/W and cxwOBA correlate really well.
There is, BTW, one inherent weakness in xwOBA, in that (this year) 8.2% of batted balls are expected weak hits -- 7.7% bloops and 0.5% swinging bunts. Those are poor quality PA that are scored as good. Whitlock gave up 5 likely bloop hits while beating the Yankees, which wrecked his xwOBA for that start. In his other 3 excellent starts in this stretch (tossing out first 3 because of the injuries) he's allowed 4 expected bloops hit, which is totally as expected.
If FIP were a building, I would burn it down. So this (with much more) seems likely to be my first published work.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jun 20, 2023 20:53:06 GMT -5
I’d say we can expect Crawford to be a full till starter. But who fills the last spot now??? So much adversity. I almost think the Sox need to make a move now for a starter. A decent one.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 21, 2023 5:16:11 GMT -5
All the signs are pointing to the obvious choice, Pivetta.
xwOBA / wOBA:
.396 / .378 (183 PA) Piverra as starter
.278 / .217 (65 PA) Pivetta as reliever.
That's hugely more than typical and raieses the possibility that he's figured something out.
.448 / .401 (78) 4/9 to 4/26, 2002
.256 / .221 (171) 5/1 to 6/4 .317 / .305 (162) 6/9 to 7/5
.350 / .377 (362) thereafter
It's been less than a year since he had a 2-month run at .286 / .262.
-----
One thing I'd like to see them do .... these numbers are for his Spx career as a starter.
From 2nd inning on:
.318 / .315 (788) vs. RHB .316 / .330 (536) vs. LHB.
Pretty much no split.
1st inning:
.351 / .333 vs. RHB .393 / .396 vs. LHB
I want to see a LHR as an opener against certain lineups. Thy can do that if they settle on 3 LHR (Rodriguez, Murphy, Bleror if he's not washed up as I fear, Bernardino or Jacques if he is).
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Post by incandenza on Jun 21, 2023 7:40:46 GMT -5
Pivetta has had 8 starts this season with an ERA/FIP/xFIP line of 6.30/5.76/4.77.
Last season from 6/29-8/10 he had 8 starts with a line of 7.24/5.58/4.71.
After that stretch last season he had 10 starts and went 4.68/5.03/4.44.
All this to say: I think the most likely thing is that Pivetta is the same pitcher he's always been and would be likely to put up an ERA in the 4.50-5.00 range as a starter. Last season that made him one of their 5 best starters. This season, after Whitlock and Bello came back, it did not. But now that Houck has gone down he probably is again. So just plugging him in until Houck gets back seems like the simplest solution.
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Post by sam01 on Jun 21, 2023 7:48:00 GMT -5
Pivetta has pitched more than a inning once since since May 28th. 3 innings in his last appearance. He'll be probably be pushing to get back to the rotation, but I'm sure the Sox are loathing to do it. Just a "no other choice' situation.
Pivetta has a 6.30 ERA while starting this year, with a 1.55 WHIP. He was getting hammered there.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 21, 2023 7:56:21 GMT -5
I'm on board with what Eric said, use a guy like Murphy as an opener against certain line-ups and hope you can get 5 solid innings out of a Murphy/Pivetta combo. Pivetta probably isn't stretched out right now so he's probably not a guy they're going to want to give more than 2-3 innings to for until he can hopefully get stretched out again. It's a big "if" but if the big 4 four Paxton/Bello/Whitlock/Crawford can keep up what they've been doing then I'm not really sure a 5th starter needs to do anything other than not completely pee down his leg out there. You'd probably be hoping the offense comes to play those days anyway and you can win a slugfest whether it's Pivetta, a guy from the minors or "gulp" Kluber..
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Post by tjb21 on Jun 21, 2023 9:20:42 GMT -5
All five starters in the current rotation have an xFIP under 4.00. Bello: 3.92 Whitlock: 3.91 Houck: 3.71 Crawford: 3.32 Paxton: 3.10 I think this is sort of vindicating my thought going into the season that with like 8 starters, each of whom is a big question mark, things would probably turn out okay because with that many options you only need to hit on about half of them. So we have a very solid looking rotation despite Pivetta disappointing, Kluber imploding, and Sale most likely being out for the rest of the year. Of course the caveat here is that now we have used up all the margin for error and another injury would open up a hole in the rotation. Also in an ideal world Houck would be in some role where he never has to go through a lineup a third time.
Someone as savvy as you using xFIP as a seemingly meaningful stat got me thinking.
FIP and xFIP were useful stats before Statcast, because there is so much noise in the results after the ball leaves the bat. Statcast -- specifically xwOBA on fair batted balls -- has not just made FIP irrelevant, it has exposed it as a colossal misunderstanding. While it's true pitchers have limited control of balls in play because of all the noise, it has never been true that pitchers do not vary much in the quality of contact they give up. Which was the belief that made FIP reasonable.
(Geekage notes for this study will be added sometime in the next two days.)
Last year (chosen as a full sample size), for regular starting pitchers, the average xwOBA on batted balls was .363. The individual numbers run on a continuum from .307 to .412.
Fourteen of the 15 best pitchers at limiting good contact (.307 to .333 contact-xwOBA, or cxwOBA for short) had above-average strikeout / walk results (i.e., their xwOBA on SO, BB, and HBP was less than the league average of .190), and the exception, Framber Valdez, was just a bit below (.199). These guys were collectively 20% better than average on balls not in play. As you move down the list, you start encountering guys like Martin Perez (16th, but 100 in K/W) who limit hard contact by nibbling, and guys like Michael Kopech (21st, but 134 in K/W), wild but with velocity and stuff that that are just hard to square up.
At the other end, 19 of the 24 guys with the worst contact allowed were below average in K/W, and all but two of the exceptions were just a bit above average. The remaining 22 guys averaged .216, 14% worse than average. One of the exceptions ranked 133 in quality of contact allowed but 9th in K/W, and the the other ranked 135 and (tied for) 10th. An eerie similarity! These guys pound the zone and if they give up some solo homers, so be it. They are of course Gerrit Cole and Nate Eovaldi.
There are enough guys with unusual approaches or skill sets to bring the correlation of K/W and cxwOBA down to .25. But that is still very significant (p =.002). It should be possible to divide pitchers into groups and isolate a population of pitchers for whom K/W and cxwOBA correlate really well. There is, BTW, one inherent weakness in xwOBA, in that (this year) 8.2% of batted balls are expected weak hits -- 7.7% bloops and 0.5% swinging bunts. Those are poor quality PA that are scored as good. Whitlock gave up 5 likely bloop hits while beating the Yankees, which wrecked his xwOBA for that start. In his other 3 excellent starts in this stretch (tossing out first 3 because of the injuries) he's allowed 4 expected bloops hit, which is totally as expected.
If FIP were a building, I would burn it down. So this (with much more) seems likely to be my first published work.
Great post. Learned something new about xwOBA!
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Post by taiwansox on Jun 21, 2023 19:21:15 GMT -5
Kyle Barraclough might be the number 5 starter we’re looking for, 5 shutout, definitely worth seeing if there’s an upgrade over Kluber/Pivetta
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Post by sam01 on Jun 22, 2023 12:58:46 GMT -5
So considering this, this team has 4 starters right now.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2023 9:25:36 GMT -5
So considering this, this team has 4 starters right now. If they're adamant about not trading for another starter yet, or don't think teams will feasibly trade until closer to the deadline, they could in theory pull something like this off until the All Star Break: White Sox - Bello, Paxton, Crawford OFF DAY Marlins - Whitlock, OPENER X/Murphy, Bello Blue Jays - Paxton, Crawford, Whitlock OFF DAY Rangers - Bello, Paxton, Crawford Athletics - Whitlock, OPENER X/Murphy, Bello All Star BreakWith off days you could maybe avoid a bullpen game at the Blue Jays and vs. the Rangers (doing a bullpen game against those two feels like a blowout waiting to happen...) and only have to do it 1 or 2 times. But if they do that they sure as heck need to find another arm not long after - sending Kaleb Ort or whoever to get lit up in the 1st inning every 5th day is not sustainable.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 23, 2023 20:24:09 GMT -5
I know this is 2023 starting rotation, not 2024, but I have to say it.
That Japanese pitcher Yamamoto and Lucas Gioloito are on my radar as guys the Sox should seriously target in free agency this winter. I like Urias but wonder how he'd fare away from Dodgers Stadium.
Of course Ohtani would be a good get, lol. But I'm not counting on that.
I know spending bug bucks on a starting pitcher in free agency is a risky proposition but I think it's a risk the Sox need to take.
Health is always a factor but if they compete enough and can hang on to Paxton and can extend him for a couple of years on a creative contract and you add a Yamamoto or Giolito and Sale comes back healthy and then you have Bello and Whitlock that's a rotation you go to war with and you factor in guys like Houck and Crawford knowing that injuries will be a part of the equation, you have seven solid options plus whatever other depth they can bring in, you go to war with that.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 23, 2023 20:29:07 GMT -5
I know this is 2023 starting rotation, not 2024, but I have to say it. That Japanese pitcher Yamamoto and Lucas Gioloito are on my radar as guys the Sox should seriously target in free agency this winter. I know spending bug bucks on a starting pitcher in free agency is a risky proposition but I think it's a risk the Sox need to take. Health is always a factor but if they compete enough and can hang on to Paxton and can extend him for a couple of years on a creative contract and you add a Yamamoto or Giolito and Sale comes back healthy and then you have Bello and Whitlock that's a rotation you go to war with and you factor in guys like Houck and Crawford knowing that injuries will be a part of the equation, you have seven solid options plus whatever other depth they can bring in, you go to war with that. I'd personally also add Nola and Urias to that list too, I'd like to see them come away with some sort of guy who can slide in as a guaranteed 2/3 starter type for years to come. Sale only has one year left on his deal so I think it's a good time to allocate some money to a good FA starter. I don't know much about Yamamoto so I'll have to check in to him but if he's that type of guy then sign me up for any one of those 4. Like you said there's more risk factor on a FA big dollar pitcher than hitter and I'm unsure if Bloom would do it but it's certainly on my wish list.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 23, 2023 20:47:31 GMT -5
I know this is 2023 starting rotation, not 2024, but I have to say it. That Japanese pitcher Yamamoto and Lucas Gioloito are on my radar as guys the Sox should seriously target in free agency this winter. I know spending bug bucks on a starting pitcher in free agency is a risky proposition but I think it's a risk the Sox need to take. Health is always a factor but if they compete enough and can hang on to Paxton and can extend him for a couple of years on a creative contract and you add a Yamamoto or Giolito and Sale comes back healthy and then you have Bello and Whitlock that's a rotation you go to war with and you factor in guys like Houck and Crawford knowing that injuries will be a part of the equation, you have seven solid options plus whatever other depth they can bring in, you go to war with that. I'd personally also add Nola and Urias to that list too, I'd like to see them come away with some sort of guy who can slide in as a guaranteed 2/3 starter type for years to come. Sale only has one year left on his deal so I think it's a good time to allocate some money to a good FA starter. I don't know much about Yamamoto so I'll have to check in to him but if he's that type of guy then sign me up for any one of those 4. Like you said there's more risk factor on a FA big dollar pitcher than hitter and I'm unsure if Bloom would do it but it's certainly on my wish list. Yes, Nola! Thanks for the addition. He's definitely one to add to the list. A top notch starter should be the top priority. It was be a big disappointment if they dont come away with one of those big arms. I know just about everybody will be in on them but the Sox must come away with one of them.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 23, 2023 20:53:18 GMT -5
I'd personally also add Nola and Urias to that list too, I'd like to see them come away with some sort of guy who can slide in as a guaranteed 2/3 starter type for years to come. Sale only has one year left on his deal so I think it's a good time to allocate some money to a good FA starter. I don't know much about Yamamoto so I'll have to check in to him but if he's that type of guy then sign me up for any one of those 4. Like you said there's more risk factor on a FA big dollar pitcher than hitter and I'm unsure if Bloom would do it but it's certainly on my wish list. Yes, Nola! Thanks for the addition. He's definitely one to add to the list. A top notch starter should be the top priority. It was be a big disappointment if they dont come away with one of those big arms. I know just about everybody will be in on them but the Sox must come away with one of them. It just seems so obvious that the Sox will have some money, can use a starter to really solidify the rotation that I'd be disappointed if they don't as well. I almost was going to say shocked but I said going into last offseason I'd be shocked if the sox didn't sign one of the big SS since that's clearly a hole and lo and behold they didn't so we'll see but yep go get a big time SP Sox.
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Post by sam01 on Jun 23, 2023 20:54:51 GMT -5
I think Yamamoto will be the Sox biggest target and the biggest free agent pursuit in the Chaim Bloom ERA. I think they really want him. Just got this gut feeling about it. They need a number one type starter and he's that and young.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 23, 2023 21:01:51 GMT -5
I think Yamamoto will be the Sox biggest target and the biggest free agent pursuit in the Chaim Bloom ERA. I think they really want him. Just got this gut feeling about it. They need a number one type starter and he's that and young. Hope you're right and he certainly wouldn't require 30 - 40 million per year although I can see the bidding war pushing him up toward 20 million per year and perhaps beyond.
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Post by sam01 on Jun 23, 2023 21:20:18 GMT -5
I think Yamamoto will be the Sox biggest target and the biggest free agent pursuit in the Chaim Bloom ERA. I think they really want him. Just got this gut feeling about it. They need a number one type starter and he's that and young. Hope you're right and he certainly wouldn't require 30 - 40 million per year although I can see the bidding war pushing him up toward 20 million per year and perhaps beyond. I think that's why they'll be in on him aggressively. It's hard to predict Japanese ballplayers transition to America and they usually come a little cheaper. Better to do that then to throw 200 million on a 30 year old ACE. We'll see. They need him.
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Post by keninten on Jun 23, 2023 21:26:20 GMT -5
We need a stopper on the mound. This team has been streaky for years.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 23, 2023 21:29:00 GMT -5
Hope you're right and he certainly wouldn't require 30 - 40 million per year although I can see the bidding war pushing him up toward 20 million per year and perhaps beyond. I think that's why they'll be in on him aggressively. It's hard to predict Japanese ballplayers transition to America and they usually come a little cheaper. Better to do that then to throw 200 million on a 30 year old ACE. We'll see. They need him. You'll get no argument from me. Like the Big 4 SS market last year I'd say there's a Big 4 Front Line Starter market and I'd be pleased with any of them. Yamamoto makes sense because of his youth and lower cost, but I would worry about how he'd hold up. He's not a big guy. Doesn't mean he couldnt succeed though.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 24, 2023 9:13:11 GMT -5
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jul 6, 2023 14:36:31 GMT -5
I’m going to drop Yushinobu Yamamoto updates till the day he gets introduced by Chaim as the Red Sox new acquisition. After week 14, he leads the Pacific league in: ERA (1.81) FIP (1.61) WHIP (0.891) Oppo. BA (.204) He’s amazing.
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Post by redsoxfansince94 on Jul 6, 2023 14:55:04 GMT -5
I’m going to drop Yushinobu Yamamoto updates till the day he gets introduced by Chaim as the Red Sox new acquisition. After week 14, he leads the Pacific league in: ERA (1.81) FIP (1.61) WHIP (0.891) Oppo. BA (.204) He’s amazing. This is the guy I desperately want.
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