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Post by Smittyw on Feb 7, 2023 9:28:44 GMT -5
On April 1st, we're going to be laughing about all of this "What if all seven projected starters are healthy?" discussion.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2023 10:05:09 GMT -5
The vibe at Fenway when Paxton piggybacks for Pivetta (or vice versa):
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 7, 2023 12:36:21 GMT -5
On April 1st, we're going to be laughing about all of this "What if all seven projected starters are healthy?" discussion. You may be right. It’s pitchers we are talking about here. So any of Sale, Kluber, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock, Bello or Houck could start the season on the IL. Not really a big deal as when healthy, and they appear to be healthy, each of them is a good to great pitcher, and even if two are on the IL on April 1, this remains a solid rotation, with good depth well beyond the starting 7.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Feb 7, 2023 12:42:08 GMT -5
It is funny — I think money and reputation leads many to start the rotation with Sale, Kluber, and Paxton in some form. To me, it starts with Whitlock and Bello… then the rest need to fight out the other three slots. In the short term, I think those are your two best arms. In the long term, they could be cornerstones (not temps like Kluber). Yes, proceed with caution, but based on what I saw last year, in a short series, I’d rather have Bello than the three veterans.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 7, 2023 12:55:38 GMT -5
It is funny — I think money and reputation leads many to start the rotation with Sale, Kluber, and Paxton in some form. To me, it starts with Whitlock and Bello… then the rest need to fight out the other three slots. In the short term, I think those are your two best arms. In the long term, they could be cornerstones (not temps like Kluber). Yes, proceed with caution, but based on what I saw last year, in a short series, I’d rather have Bello than the three veterans. I think it's hard to argue against Sale as the #1 on this staff entering the year. Whitlock and Bello may get there, but Sale is there. His stuff looked as good as ever in his cameo last year, including his highest average fastball velocity since 2018 (perhaps adrenaline driven, but still).
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 7, 2023 12:57:08 GMT -5
It is funny — I think money and reputation leads many to start the rotation with Sale, Kluber, and Paxton in some form. To me, it starts with Whitlock and Bello… then the rest need to fight out the other three slots. In the short term, I think those are your two best arms. In the long term, they could be cornerstones (not temps like Kluber). Yes, proceed with caution, but based on what I saw last year, in a short series, I’d rather have Bello than the three veterans. I sort of get the point at least with Kluber and Paxton but a healthy Sale absolutely isn't fighting for a rotation spot. I feel pretty good about Sale this season but perhaps that's misguided.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Feb 7, 2023 13:03:46 GMT -5
I don’t think Sale is fighting for a spot, right. He’s ahead of the other vets. But I have graver doubts about him than I do Whitlock and Bello.
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Post by jimoh on Feb 7, 2023 14:04:59 GMT -5
I don’t think Sale is fighting for a spot, right. He’s ahead of the other vets. But I have graver doubts about him than I do Whitlock and Bello. Well, it was touch-and-go this week as to whether Sale would hit by debris from that Chinese spy balloon. So we've passed that hurdle.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 7, 2023 15:00:23 GMT -5
Agree about the potential for Bello, Houck and Whitlock this season, and that they could wind up carrying a rotation which would still be solid in spite of injuries to the vets.
But that is as speculative as the unlikely potential that none of Paxton, Kluber and Sale will even approach their pre-injuries stellar (as in star) skill set. They should all be pretty good for however many innings they deliver. In fact Kluber already proved that in 2022.
That’s a good rotation before even discussing Pivetta, Crawford, Mata, Murphy, Walter, Winck, etc. Varying degrees of talent to be sure. Still, that’s a lot of talent
In terms of who should be listed first, Sale, Kluber and Paxton have already earned this respect due to past excellence. My hope is that (Whitlock), Houck and Bello earn that respect … and sign a long term extension … this year.
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Post by seamus on Feb 8, 2023 11:16:46 GMT -5
The order of the rotation doesn't really matter until you get to the postseason, at which point the pecking order will have established itself and any young guys will have "earned their stripes". At the beginning of the season, I think you just do what makes the most sense from a team morale/sports psychology standpoint. That typically means giving deference to veterans because of how hierarchical clubhouses can be. The chances of Sale, Kluber, and Paxton, for instance, not being 3 of the 5 best options when healthy is pretty remote, so you go ahead and start them 1-2-3 in the regular season because nobody will feel "disrespected".
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Feb 8, 2023 11:34:37 GMT -5
It is funny — I think money and reputation leads many to start the rotation with Sale, Kluber, and Paxton in some form. To me, it starts with Whitlock and Bello… then the rest need to fight out the other three slots. In the short term, I think those are your two best arms. In the long term, they could be cornerstones (not temps like Kluber). Yes, proceed with caution, but based on what I saw last year, in a short series, I’d rather have Bello than the three veterans. I agree that Bello and Whitlock are the two cornerstones of the rotation going forward, and they are the two I am most anxious to see do well. I assume they will be at least a little cautious with them because of Bello’s increased innings last year and Whitlock’s injury. All of the starters may see more starts limited to 5 innings at the beginning on the season to help avoid injury and keep them fresher for later in the year. The bullpen is much deeper this year (including the AAA guys with options) to absorb more innings due to shorter starts. The seven quality starters plus good AAA depth show how far the team has come from 2020.
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Post by terriblehondo on Feb 8, 2023 12:53:56 GMT -5
It is funny — I think money and reputation leads many to start the rotation with Sale, Kluber, and Paxton in some form. To me, it starts with Whitlock and Bello… then the rest need to fight out the other three slots. In the short term, I think those are your two best arms. In the long term, they could be cornerstones (not temps like Kluber). Yes, proceed with caution, but based on what I saw last year, in a short series, I’d rather have Bello than the three veterans. I think it's hard to argue against Sale as the #1 on this staff entering the year. Whitlock and Bello may get there, but Sale is there. His stuff looked as good as ever in his cameo last year, including his highest average fastball velocity since 2018 (perhaps adrenaline driven, but still). I didn't think his stuff was as good as ever. It seemed to me like he was overthrowing to create the velocity which was impacting command. He will be able to hopefully get a clean spring in and we will see if he gets back to what he was. He typically has always been better early in the year and drops a bit as the season wears on. Fingers crossed that he will still be a number 1 and not a 3.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 8, 2023 13:52:24 GMT -5
I think it's hard to argue against Sale as the #1 on this staff entering the year. Whitlock and Bello may get there, but Sale is there. His stuff looked as good as ever in his cameo last year, including his highest average fastball velocity since 2018 (perhaps adrenaline driven, but still). I didn't think his stuff was as good as ever. It seemed to me like he was overthrowing to create the velocity which was impacting command. He will be able to hopefully get a clean spring in and we will see if he gets back to what he was. He typically has always been better early in the year and drops a bit as the season wears on. Fingers crossed that he will still be a number 1 and not a 3. Idk, I don't remember thinking that and he walked one guy in 5.2 IP. I'm also not expecting him to fade later in the year now that he's had TJ.
I'm not trying to argue that he will be a legit #1, although that's certainly within the realm of possibility. He is clearly the top SP on this staff, though. Whitlock and Bello have high ceilings and there's certainly a universe where they both outpitch Sale this year. Still, banking on them both to be above Sale on the pecking order to the point where Sale is a guy fighting with Paxton, Pivetta, and Kluber for a rotation spot is just not realistic. Sale is the best pitcher on this team until he shows some decline and proves otherwise.
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Post by kingstephanos on Feb 8, 2023 21:12:59 GMT -5
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Post by keninten on Feb 8, 2023 22:49:36 GMT -5
I like Trade Rumors but that article was bad. Bello "may be needed at some point" along with Cutter and Winck.
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Post by Coreno on Feb 8, 2023 22:55:14 GMT -5
Yeah lumping Bello in with those guys, and mentioned after Houck, says a lot about the level of insight there imo
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Post by terriblehondo on Feb 10, 2023 10:20:29 GMT -5
I didn't think his stuff was as good as ever. It seemed to me like he was overthrowing to create the velocity which was impacting command. He will be able to hopefully get a clean spring in and we will see if he gets back to what he was. He typically has always been better early in the year and drops a bit as the season wears on. Fingers crossed that he will still be a number 1 and not a 3. Idk, I don't remember thinking that and he walked one guy in 5.2 IP. I'm also not expecting him to fade later in the year now that he's had TJ.
I'm not trying to argue that he will be a legit #1, although that's certainly within the realm of possibility. He is clearly the top SP on this staff, though. Whitlock and Bello have high ceilings and there's certainly a universe where they both outpitch Sale this year. Still, banking on them both to be above Sale on the pecking order to the point where Sale is a guy fighting with Paxton, Pivetta, and Kluber for a rotation spot is just not realistic. Sale is the best pitcher on this team until he shows some decline and proves otherwise.
I am not implying that Sale is at the back of the rotation if he is a 2 or 3 he will still probably be the best Red Sox pitcher. I just didn't think in the 2 short stints he has pitched since the injury he was as good as he had been. Hopefully with a normal ramp up he will be back to one of the best pitchers out there.
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Post by seamus on Feb 10, 2023 16:36:57 GMT -5
Yeah lumping Bello in with those guys, and mentioned after Houck, says a lot about the level of insight there imo It probably consisted of looking at his ERA and calling it a day. I don't know how you can dig any deeper and lump Bello in with the AAA depth guys. If he spends time in AAA, it'll only be because he has options and everyone else is healthy and kicking ass.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 12, 2023 6:03:09 GMT -5
Sale and Paxton: It's actually easier to argue that three years of inactivity will help rather than hurt. Imagine a caveman who goes three years without throwing a spear to kill for food. You think he forgets how? That's the actual evolutionary reason why complex motor skills like this are just not forgotten. Meanwhile, you've saved three years of wear on your arm. Sale is putting that spin on things. When you add that Paxton has never pitched with a reliever's work schedule, these are locks if healthy. As are Bello and Whitlock, a/k/a The Future.
The last three guys are not so easy to assess.
Tanner Houck would be as easy choice if it weren't for his career times-around-order splits of .504, .647, 1.017. All four of his pitches rank in the 75th percentile or better for overall effectiveness, so the easy explanation is wrong. It could be in part stamina -- his splits by pitch count, in buckets of 25, are .455 , .675, .754. It could be in part stubbornness about following his catchers' game plans, or another word that begins with "st" and is even less flattering -- either one is consistent with not vaxing. We won't know anything about this until late in ST.
Nick Pivetta had mediocre results and is easy to kick to the curb for that reason. However, at no point in the season was he a mediocre pitcher.
First, it's really easy to divide his outings into good and below-average to bad ones. The average MLB start last year was .314 xwOBA and wOBA, and Pivetta had 22 starts ranging from .316 to .555 (average of actual and expected, for ease). But his least good better-than-average start was .291 -- .023 better than average. That's a lot. Now, if you looked at his season in order you'd expect to see those good and bad starts mixed up more or less at random, whereupon on you'd declare that .023 gap to be random. But here's his actual season (as you probably recall). G is a good start and B a bad one. What Exp Act 4 B .448 .401 7 G, 1 B, 2 G .270 .235 9 B .354 .393 2 G .222 .201 2 B, 1 G, 5 B .374 .391
The odds of having both a 9-game bad streak and a 7-game good streak in 33 starts are 1 in 197. Add in further bad streaks of 4 and 5 games and it gets much smaller (and too much trouble to calculate!). He's still a guy with #2 upside -- just swap the good and bad frequencies -- and he has extra incentive to figure things out.
Corey Kluber would be easy to put at the bottom of the depth chart if it weren't for the startling fact that he had better results without the shift than either Verlander or de Grom -- in fact, only Rodon was better among the free agent starters. Assessing how meaningful that is is gnarly and not something you do without getting paid . But he's a a very solid depth addition, and he'll get plenty of starts, especially if Houck is in the pen for the year.
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Post by worldbfree on Feb 12, 2023 9:08:57 GMT -5
Eric, your description of Pivetta feels like a reach. His xFIP hasbeen over 4 for each of the last four seasons. He had a couple of good months but he was bad in the second half last year. Pivetta's strikeouts per 9 also went down because apparently he had a loss in velocity. Pivetta is going into his age 30 season. I don't see how he has #2 upside at this point. His value seems to be in eating innings...that is about it.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 12, 2023 12:50:28 GMT -5
Sale and Paxton: It's actually easier to argue that three years of inactivity will help rather than hurt. Imagine a caveman who goes three years without throwing a spear to kill for food. You think he forgets how? That's the actual evolutionary reason why complex motor skills like this are just not forgotten. Meanwhile, you've saved three years of wear on your arm. Sale is putting that spin on things. When you add that Paxton has never pitched with a reliever's work schedule, these are locks if healthy. [...] This seems a little optimistic. Every pitcher that has ever lived still remembers at age 40 how to throw all of his pitches. The question is whether his body has changed so that when he tries to do what he could do at age 25 or 29, the same results happen. Subtle changes to the legs, hips, shoulders, elbows and wrists can throw off these complication mechanisms. Saying "these are locks if healthy" seems overstated.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Feb 12, 2023 15:09:06 GMT -5
Sale and Paxton: It's actually easier to argue that three years of inactivity will help rather than hurt. Imagine a caveman who goes three years without throwing a spear to kill for food. You think he forgets how? That's the actual evolutionary reason why complex motor skills like this are just not forgotten. Meanwhile, you've saved three years of wear on your arm. Sale is putting that spin on things. When you add that Paxton has never pitched with a reliever's work schedule, these are locks if healthy. [...] This seems a little optimistic. Every pitcher that has ever lived still remembers at age 40 how to throw all of his pitches. The question is whether his body has changed so that when he tries to do what he could do at age 25 or 29, the same results happen. Subtle changes to the legs, hips, shoulders, elbows and wrists can throw off these complication mechanisms. Saying "these are locks if healthy" seems overstated. Apples and oranges. Your example, from age 25 to 40 = 15 years not 3 years…..big difference! Sale may no longer be a Cy Young contender, but he will not be pitching like a 40 year old.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 13, 2023 4:58:56 GMT -5
In Sale's lone start last year, he averaged 95MPH and topped out at 97.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 13, 2023 8:42:23 GMT -5
This seems a little optimistic. Every pitcher that has ever lived still remembers at age 40 how to throw all of his pitches. The question is whether his body has changed so that when he tries to do what he could do at age 25 or 29, the same results happen. Subtle changes to the legs, hips, shoulders, elbows and wrists can throw off these complication mechanisms. Saying "these are locks if healthy" seems overstated. Apples and oranges. Your example, from age 25 to 40 = 15 years not 3 years…..big difference! Sale may no longer be a Cy Young contender, but he will not be pitching like a 40 year old. I didn't say Sale (or Paxton) would be pitching like a 40-year-old. I was arguing that remembering how to pitch does not make you a "solid lock if healthy" if your body has changed. If it did, then 40-year-olds would still be good. We can be optimistic, but Sale and Paxton are far from solid locks.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 13, 2023 12:50:15 GMT -5
Apples and oranges. Your example, from age 25 to 40 = 15 years not 3 years…..big difference! Sale may no longer be a Cy Young contender, but he will not be pitching like a 40 year old. I didn't say Sale (or Paxton) would be pitching like a 40-year-old. I was arguing that remembering how to pitch does not make you a "solid lock if healthy" if your body has changed. If it did, then 40-year-olds would still be good. We can be optimistic, but Sale and Paxton are far from solid locks. Yeah once your body knows how to pitch you can always pitch at your same high level no matter what age. It's easy. It's just like riding a bike....
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