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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 21, 2022 14:36:15 GMT -5
Everyone seems so sold on Wacha. I think he’s a high chance of regression candidate, and we’d be buying high. Curious to see what Bloom does there I don't disagree that he's a definite regression candidate but I think he's shown enough that I don't think he's going to regress to a negative pitcher. I don't think he's a 2 or a 3 that he's pitched like when healthy but I think he's a solid 4 and would be okay with paying him as such for 2 maybe 3 years max. Now he certainly could have pitched himself into a higher $ and year total than that and if so I would probably say to walk away.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 21, 2022 14:48:22 GMT -5
I'd project Wacha for roughly 2, 1.5 and 1 WAR over the next 3 years. At average FA prices, that's 1/17, 2/30, 3/38. Chaim probably needs a discount against average FA prices to do the deal, so adjust downwards a bit.
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Post by seamus on Sept 21, 2022 14:58:33 GMT -5
I would bring back Wacha for something like 2/25, but I think someone will give him a 3rd year at that AAV. I'd thank him for the good year and try to identify 2 pitchers in that <$8m AAV heap that Wacha was pulled from to compete for a rotation spot. Maybe Jose Quintana and Sean Manaea?
I do expect the Sox to be in the mix for one of the top starters on the market. If they can roll into the season with, say, Rodon/Sale/Bello/Whitlock/Pivetta as their top 5, that's got some really high-end potential with a solid floor considering the number of AAA options who can hold down the back of the rotation. I am high on Bello, but it's better if his breakout at the MLB level can be a bonus rather than something we're counting on.
Chad Kuhl from Colorado is somebody I find fairly interesting. He's got a really good slider and a curveball with a high spin rate that's been very good in the past (less so this year, unsurprisingly for a Colorado pitcher). With a better pitch mix and maybe a tweak to his fastball (try a cutter?), he could be a solid back-end of the rotation guy for very cheap. Seems like the kind of low-risk flyer the Sox development staff might be intrigued by.
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Post by jbsox on Sept 21, 2022 16:08:13 GMT -5
I would bring back Wacha for something like 2/25, but I think someone will give him a 3rd year at that AAV. I'd thank him for the good year and try to identify 2 pitchers in that <$8m AAV heap that Wacha was pulled from to compete for a rotation spot. Maybe Jose Quintana and Sean Manaea? I do expect the Sox to be in the mix for one of the top starters on the market. If they can roll into the season with, say, Rodon/Sale/Bello/Whitlock/Pivetta as their top 5, that's got some really high-end potential with a solid floor considering the number of AAA options who can hold down the back of the rotation. I am high on Bello, but it's better if his breakout at the MLB level can be a bonus rather than something we're counting on. Chad Kuhl from Colorado is somebody I find fairly interesting. He's got a really good slider and a curveball with a high spin rate that's been very good in the past (less so this year, unsurprisingly for a Colorado pitcher). With a better pitch mix and maybe a tweak to his fastball (try a cutter?), he could be a solid back-end of the rotation guy for very cheap. Seems like the kind of low-risk flyer the Sox development staff might be intrigued by. Yes! I love the idea of signing Rodon! I really think we need to think bigger for the front end of our rotation, and that will help everything else fall into line. Sale has missed so much time the past couple seasons, and asking both Bello and Whitlock to lock down big parts of the rotation for a full season the first time in their careers may be asking a lot. So I would also like another experienced pitcher like Wacha, Paxton, even Eovaldi back. I also wouldn’t mind if Pivetta was traded for another piece, say OF help. He’s durable, but I’ve seen enough to not expect much more than a back end starter and we have enough of those types. So Rodon/Sale/Bello/Whitlock/ and at least 1 of the vets I mentioned brought back(even 2 if we a creative Paxton deal in there), or someone similar. It’s a lot of money to spend for our rotation, but I think we only need tweaks to our offense (maybe Pivetta can bring someone back interesting at the major league level), and keep Bogey and Devers. I’m always wary of spending big for bullpen help, so I hope Bloom gets creative there.
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Post by seamus on Sept 21, 2022 16:44:09 GMT -5
Pivetta's got two more years of cheap team control and has proven himself to be an average pitcher who can throw about 160 innings. That's an incredibly valuable commodity! He could potentially bring back somebody interesting, but given the other holes in the Sox's rotation, I think trading away a cheap, dependable 2 WAR guy might be like redecorating the guest bedroom when the oven's busted. That's production teams often have to pay $15m+ on the open market for, so getting that value at an ARB price is a good enough deal that you should probably leave well enough alone.
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Post by jbsox on Sept 21, 2022 18:14:31 GMT -5
Pivetta's got two more years of cheap team control and has proven himself to be an average pitcher who can throw about 160 innings. That's an incredibly valuable commodity! He could potentially bring back somebody interesting, but given the other holes in the Sox's rotation, I think trading away a cheap, dependable 2 WAR guy might be like redecorating the guest bedroom when the oven's busted. That's production teams often have to pay $15m+ on the open market for, so getting that value at an ARB price is a good enough deal that you should probably leave well enough alone. In a vacuum I agree. Provided we sign Rodon in the previous suggestion, and if we have the uncertainty of how well young pitchers Whitlock and Bello will hold up in the starting rotation over a very long season along with how Sale will look after so much time off, my preference I’d like a little more upside in Pivetta’s spot.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 29, 2022 8:52:12 GMT -5
Here are the number of starts per pitcher in 2022. I have included their overall ERA, so relief appearances are included for five of the pitchers listed.
Pivetta 31 - 4.48 (ok for a #4 starter) Hill 25 - 4.41 (ok for a #5 starter) Wacha 22 - 3.06 (nice job for a #3 - just need more starts) Eovaldi 18 - 4.15 (neither good enough nor enough quantity) Winckowski 14 - 5.75 (ok depth, but ran out gas) Crawford 12 - 5.47 (ok through the first 7 or 8 starts) Bello 10 - 4.39 (wow, going to #2 or #3 next year) Whitlock 9 - 3.45 (hopefully injury free next year) Seabold 5 - 11.29 Houck 4 - 3.15 (future is in the bullpen and is solid there) Davis 3 - 5.47 Sale 2 - 3.18 (way, way, way too little production)
With 7 games left to play
The 2023 team option as of right now: Sale Bello Whitlock Pivetta
Depth Crawford Winckowski
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2022 9:11:30 GMT -5
Here are the number of starts per pitcher in 2022. I have included their overall ERA, so relief appearances are included for four of the pitchers listed. Pivetta 31 - 4.48 (ok for a #4 starter) Hill 25 - 4.41 (ok for a #5 starter) Wacha 22 - 3.06 (nice job for a #3 - just need more starts) Eovaldi 18 - 4.15 (neither good enough nor enough quantity) Winckowski 14 - 5.75 (ok depth, but ran out gas) Crawford 12 - 5.47 (ok through the first 7 or 8 starts) Bello 10 - 4.39 (wow, going to #2 or #3 next year) Whitlock 9 - 3.45 (hopefully injury free next year) Seabold 5 - 11.29 Houck 4 - 3.15 (future is in the bullpen and is solid there) Davis 3 - 5.47 Sale 2 - 3.18 (way, way, way too little production) With 7 games left to play In contrast to last year: Eovaldi 32 - 182 IP, 3.75 ERA E-rod 31 - 157.2 IP, 4.74 ERA (3.47 FIP) Pivetta 30 - 155 IP, 4.53 ERA Richards 22 - 136 IP, 4.87 ERA Perez 22 - 114 IP, 4.74 ERA Houck 13 - 69 IP, 3.52 ERA Sale 9 - 42 IP, 3.16 ERA + 3 spots starts by Crawford, Seabold and... Brad Peacock Wacha and Hill have been a heck of a lot better than Richards and Perez were last year, who seemed like nearly every start they were going to combust until Cora would send Whitlock in to settle things down. Unfortunately taking 25+ potential Eovaldi/Sale starts and having to hand them over to the 8th/9th/10th guys on the SP depth chart just killed us
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 29, 2022 9:28:51 GMT -5
I've been combing through possible starters and feel like they don't necessarily need any back end type guys. They can probably get through with who they have, tho it certainly wouldn't hurt to grab a solid innings eater back end type guy.
A name I've kind of narrowed in on is koudai senga. Japanese pitchers are always a risk but he sounds to me a potential front of the rotation arm that probably won't get some crazy 20+mil aav deal. This is dependent on him being posted but it sounds likely. Just a thought and guy I'd throw out as a possible solution to slide in to the Eovaldi spot in the rotation.
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Post by kingstephanos on Sept 29, 2022 19:22:38 GMT -5
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Post by xdmo on Sept 29, 2022 20:40:33 GMT -5
I've been combing through possible starters and feel like they don't necessarily need any back end type guys. They can probably get through with who they have, tho it certainly wouldn't hurt to grab a solid innings eater back end type guy. A name I've kind of narrowed in on is koudai senga. Japanese pitchers are always a risk but he sounds to me a potential front of the rotation arm that probably won't get some crazy 20+mil aav deal. This is dependent on him being posted but it sounds likely. Just a thought and guy I'd throw out as a possible solution to slide in to the Eovaldi spot in the rotation. I wonder what the success rate is of Asian players to America. The Uber talented players like Hideo Nomo, Matsui, Darvish, Ichiro, Ohtani, Tanaka had immediate star power. Outside of that there's been Hyun Jin Ryu, Koji. Matsuzaka and Okajima had 2-3 great seasons. Tazawa had a solid relieving career. Ji-Man Choi has been a pretty good platoon first basemen. Kukuchi had a couple good back end starter seasons. Not sure Japan is a safe bet when spending tens of millions of dollars. Nothing wrong with flyers of course. The only guys been worth the money is the all-time great Asian players. Add- Pitching seems to have had more success from Asia. It's all about stuff and command, which is easy to see, even with a different sized baseball. Hitting is a big unknown for me and most people.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 29, 2022 20:54:36 GMT -5
Recent comments in the media would lead you to believe that there is mutual interest in running it back with Rich Hill
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Post by greenmonster on Sept 29, 2022 21:01:17 GMT -5
Recent comments in the media would lead you to believe that there is mutual interest in running it back with Rich Hill What I saw sounded like possibly a bullpen/opener role
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2022 7:45:28 GMT -5
I did some stat digging on the SP free agents this year. Compared to deciding which SS we want, or what OF option to chase, this is uh… a little worrying. I broke it down by tiers.
GOATS… for 40 mil AAV: DeGrom, Verlander
Not Going Anywhere: Kershaw, Wainwright
Former Chicago White Sox Ace Lefty w/ Health Red Flags: Rodon
Very Good: Bassitt
Mid/back of rotation:
Taillon, Kluber, Syndergaard, Tyler Anderson, Martin Perez, Stripling, Kyle Gibson, Manaea, Taijuan Walker, Lyles, Quintana, Davies, Clevinger, Heaney, Miley, Smyly
Ask the Red Sox Medical Staff: Eovaldi, Wacha, Paxton
I’m curious how everyone else feels about some of the less talked about names. My gut is IF Sale and Bello are frontline starters, there’s plenty of complementary veterans on this list. But if you’re trying to find a rotation anchor here…. 😬
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 30, 2022 7:54:01 GMT -5
I did some stat digging on the SP free agents this year. Compared to deciding which SS we want, or what OF option to chase, this is uh… a little worrying. I broke it down by tiers. GOATS… for 40 mil AAV: DeGrom, Verlander Not Going Anywhere: Kershaw, Wainwright Former Chicago White Sox Ace Lefty w/ Health Red Flags: Rodon Very Good: Bassitt Mid/back of rotation: Taillon, Kluber, Syndergaard, Tyler Anderson, Martin Perez, Stripling, Kyle Gibson, Manaea, Taijuan Walker, Lyles, Quintana, Davies, Clevinger, Heaney, Miley, Smyly Ask the Red Sox Medical Staff: Eovaldi, Wacha, Paxton I’m curious how everyone else feels about some of the less talked about names. My gut is IF Sale and Bello are frontline starters, there’s plenty of complementary veterans on this list. But if you’re trying to find a rotation anchor here…. 😬 This is a good outline of what the options are looking like. I think we can cross off Martin Perez as an option, been there done that. I'd add another category/tier of Japanese wild card Senga. I know it's the second time I've brought him up but he deserves to be in the conversation. of that list I'd personally be interest in Rodon, Senga, Bassit, Taillon, Clevinger, Wacha, Taijuan Walker, maybe Eovaldi and that's probably about it. Obviously it'll all come down to price/term/medicals and that was after just glancing at the names and doing no research so possibly a few of those pitchers are more interesting options than I'm giving them credit for.
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Post by jdb on Sept 30, 2022 12:47:18 GMT -5
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 30, 2022 22:19:10 GMT -5
I did some stat digging on the SP free agents this year. Compared to deciding which SS we want, or what OF option to chase, this is uh… a little worrying. I broke it down by tiers. GOATS… for 40 mil AAV: DeGrom, Verlander Not Going Anywhere: Kershaw, Wainwright Former Chicago White Sox Ace Lefty w/ Health Red Flags: Rodon Very Good: Bassitt Mid/back of rotation: Taillon, Kluber, Syndergaard, Tyler Anderson, Martin Perez, Stripling, Kyle Gibson, Manaea, Taijuan Walker, Lyles, Quintana, Davies, Clevinger, Heaney, Miley, Smyly Ask the Red Sox Medical Staff: Eovaldi, Wacha, Paxton I’m curious how everyone else feels about some of the less talked about names. My gut is IF Sale and Bello are frontline starters, there’s plenty of complementary veterans on this list. But if you’re trying to find a rotation anchor here…. 😬 GOAT me.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 1, 2022 11:54:47 GMT -5
Wacha was a nice story for 7M but they should’ve just signed Rodón if they had no plans on staying under the cap, which they clearly did not. Now Wacha is a free agent and probably set to fall back to earth, and we might overpay for that.
I’d rather run it back with Hill for cheap and maybe that’s what we’ll do.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Oct 1, 2022 12:23:36 GMT -5
Wacha was a nice story for 7M but they should’ve just signed Rodón if they had no plans on staying under the cap, which they clearly did not. Now Wacha is a free agent and probably set to fall back to earth, and we might overpay for that. I’d rather run it back with Hill for cheap and maybe that’s what we’ll do. And so is Rodon? He was only signing a prove you're healthy deal that set him up long-term
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Oct 6, 2022 6:55:11 GMT -5
Recent comments in the media would lead you to believe that there is mutual interest in running it back with Rich Hill Team should be looking to get younger. But it should really depend on who they bring in this offseason. Right now I have them going with Sale, Bello, Paxton (depending on how they feel his rehab is going), Pivetta and probably Whitlock if they spend an entire offseason stretching him out. I can't see them signing a top FA pitcher. Personally, Bello did enough to earn a spot in the rotation with his performance down the stretch. You also have JAGs like Seabold and guys coming off TJ like Mata and Ward who can step in and compete in Spring Training.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Oct 6, 2022 7:34:52 GMT -5
Recent comments in the media would lead you to believe that there is mutual interest in running it back with Rich Hill Team should be looking to get younger. But it should really depend on who they bring in this offseason. Right now I have them going with Sale, Bello, Paxton (depending on how they feel his rehab is going), Pivetta and probably Whitlock if they spend an entire offseason stretching him out. I can't see them signing a top FA pitcher. Personally, Bello did enough to earn a spot in the rotation with his performance down the stretch. You also have JAGs like Seabold and guys coming off TJ like Mata and Ward who can step in and compete in Spring Training. For that rotation you need both Paxton and Sale to be healthy and that is not a safe bet right now. You have to either add a FA pitcher, trade for a guy, or bring someone like Wacha back. The issue here is what does that rotation look like after those five guys? No rotation has 5 guys making 32 starts, and there's a lot of injury risk there too. I really like Bello, and I think he can be great. But couting on a guy who just made 11 starts to be our #2 is a bit premature (perhaps you listed the pitchers in no particular order) So that rotation leaves a lot of starts for Mata, Walter, Wink, Seabold, Crawford. Now a few of those guys may very well have a good MLB career, and I like them all, but it's not unreasonable to assume none of them could add significant value if any next year. And if the rotation is as injury riddled as it was this year those guys are making 80 +- starts. Bloom needs to make some moves.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 6, 2022 7:58:13 GMT -5
Team should be looking to get younger. But it should really depend on who they bring in this offseason. Right now I have them going with Sale, Bello, Paxton (depending on how they feel his rehab is going), Pivetta and probably Whitlock if they spend an entire offseason stretching him out. I can't see them signing a top FA pitcher. Personally, Bello did enough to earn a spot in the rotation with his performance down the stretch. You also have JAGs like Seabold and guys coming off TJ like Mata and Ward who can step in and compete in Spring Training. For that rotation you need both Paxton and Sale to be healthy and that is not a safe bet right now. You have to either add a FA pitcher, trade for a guy, or bring someone like Wacha back. The issue here is what does that rotation look like after those five guys? No rotation has 5 guys making 32 starts, and there's a lot of injury risk there too. I really like Bello, and I think he can be great. But couting on a guy who just made 11 starts to be our #2 is a bit premature (perhaps you listed the pitchers in no particular order) So that rotation leaves a lot of starts for Mata, Walter, Wink, Seabold, Crawford. Now a few of those guys may very well have a good MLB career, and I like them all, but it's not unreasonable to assume none of them could add significant value if any next year. And if the rotation is as injury riddled as it was this year those guys are making 80 +- starts. Bloom needs to make some moves. Personally I find the sox depth starter options to be perfectly fine. It's not like many teams are going to have a better 6-10 option than the sox currently have. I'll agree that they probably need to sign one bona-fide starter and probably a reclamation type guy in the wacha mold or bring back rich hill. I don't think they're going to bring back Paxton but if they do I'd have to assume they think he'll be healthy enough to be in the rotation to start the year.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Oct 6, 2022 8:17:06 GMT -5
It will be interesting to see how they go about the rotation this offseason
As far as 2022 goes, I think it was a moderate success the way Bloom put it together. After the post-2018 extensions, 2022 was never going to be a great year for the starting rotation with $80M dedicated to three guys over 30. And that went about as poorly as it could, they shed $15M of that but still got almost no value (1 WAR from Eovaldi). But adding Wacha and Hill, even considering the Paxton failure, was an overall positive. Not a massive win, but something that gives me confidence in next season.
But it is tricky. They seem to want to give Whitlock a legit chance to start. They're going to need insurance for Sale and Paxton if they decide to keep him. Bello earned a spot in the rotation and Pivetta is still there too and is probably the guy you're most confident in to give you starter innings.
So if you go with Sale/Paxton/Whitlock/Bello/Pivetta, you are going to need some insurance behind that. But the guys you could stash in the pen or AAA this year we saw didn't exactly inspire confidence, and the guys we didn't see like Mata, Ward and Walter have injury concerns. So you have to bring someone from the FA.
They could probably use a top of the line guy considering they don't have a reliable ace. But then if you sign Rodon, who are you kicking out of the rotation if all the guys are healthy?
Resigning Hill makes some sense, either waiting and bringing him in when they have an injury or putting him in the pen when they have a full rotation.
Anyways, it seems like there's a lot of room for creativity here, and I have some mild confidence in Bloom here. This is really where he's gonna make his money.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Oct 6, 2022 8:36:31 GMT -5
For that rotation you need both Paxton and Sale to be healthy and that is not a safe bet right now. You have to either add a FA pitcher, trade for a guy, or bring someone like Wacha back. The issue here is what does that rotation look like after those five guys? No rotation has 5 guys making 32 starts, and there's a lot of injury risk there too. I really like Bello, and I think he can be great. But couting on a guy who just made 11 starts to be our #2 is a bit premature (perhaps you listed the pitchers in no particular order) So that rotation leaves a lot of starts for Mata, Walter, Wink, Seabold, Crawford. Now a few of those guys may very well have a good MLB career, and I like them all, but it's not unreasonable to assume none of them could add significant value if any next year. And if the rotation is as injury riddled as it was this year those guys are making 80 +- starts. Bloom needs to make some moves. Personally I find the sox depth starter options to be perfectly fine. It's not like many teams are going to have a better 6-10 option than the sox currently have. I'll agree that they probably need to sign one bona-fide starter and probably a reclamation type guy in the wacha mold or bring back rich hill. I don't think they're going to bring back Paxton but if they do I'd have to assume they think he'll be healthy enough to be in the rotation to start the year. Absolutely, 100% I don’t think the depth is bad, but if 3-4 of your depth guys become your starters results are going to be sub optimal. Like you said, if they bring in 2 guys…I’m a lot more comfortable with that group. And if health luck swings your way with a healthy Sale the rotation could see a complete turn around in 2023. But it’s going to take some work, we can’t stand pat with that we have. Well I suppose we could….
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 6, 2022 9:57:57 GMT -5
Personally I find the sox depth starter options to be perfectly fine. It's not like many teams are going to have a better 6-10 option than the sox currently have. I'll agree that they probably need to sign one bona-fide starter and probably a reclamation type guy in the wacha mold or bring back rich hill. I don't think they're going to bring back Paxton but if they do I'd have to assume they think he'll be healthy enough to be in the rotation to start the year. Absolutely, 100% I don’t think the depth is bad, but if 3-4 of your depth guys become your starters results are going to be sub optimal. Like you said, if they bring in 2 guys…I’m a lot more comfortable with that group. And if health luck swings your way with a healthy Sale the rotation could see a complete turn around in 2023. But it’s going to take some work, we can’t stand pat with that we have. Well I suppose we could…. Sounds like we're pretty much in agreement here. I think it's imperative they bring in a guy who can be reasonably expected to make 25+ starts with above average results overall to replace Eovaldi. Who that would be I don't know. Sale/FA/Pivetta/bello/Whitlock, on its face is a talented rotation. Unfortunately there's a lot of room for disappointment based off what has been pointed out in regards to Sale, Bello and Whitlock quite frankly being wild cards. It'll be interesting to see what Bloom does though. A few solid additions and some good luck the pitching could be easily be above average.
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