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Post by manfred on Feb 6, 2023 17:06:48 GMT -5
I don’t doubt Kiké at SS. I doubt the lineup that puts him there instead of CF, where he belongs.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Feb 6, 2023 23:48:57 GMT -5
Getting a big year out of Mondesi would be huge in that regard.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 6, 2023 23:54:25 GMT -5
Getting a big year out of Mondesi would be huge in that regard. Or conversely a big first half year out of Duval. Kiké is a far better shortstop for the new rules than Xander was. Hypothetically, Rafaela could force the issue by the trade deadline.
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Post by patford on Feb 7, 2023 0:02:51 GMT -5
Getting a big year out of Mondesi would be huge in that regard. Or conversely a big first half year out of Duval. Kiké is a far better shortstop for the new rules than Xander was. Hypothetically, Rafaela could force the issue by the trade deadline. It would be surprising if Bogaerts ends the year at SS. The first talk if him and SD had him seen by the Padres at 1B.
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Post by keninten on Feb 7, 2023 0:18:26 GMT -5
Getting a big year out of Mondesi would be huge in that regard. Or conversely a big first half year out of Duval. Kiké is a far better shortstop for the new rules than Xander was. Hypothetically, Rafaela could force the issue by the trade deadline. Kiké will be an upgrade defensively at SS.
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Post by jmei on Feb 7, 2023 9:00:20 GMT -5
It does sound from that podcast that Kiké thinks that he's going to be the everyday shortstop. That still makes me a little nervous. I don't think you can ever take a defensive positional change for granted. It goes wrong all the time even when players are going down the defensive structure (Arroyo/RF, Cordero/1B, H. Ramirez/LF, Bogaerts/3B), let alone when a 31-year-old is moving to the hardest non-catcher defensive position for the first sustained period of his career (he has a combined 64 starts at SS spread out over nine seasons, with his highest single-season total being 17 starts in 2018).
To put it another way, Kiké has been about +10 runs in CF over the last two years on an annualized basis. Let's be conservative and call that a +7 with some regression to the mean and age-related slippage. In order to match that defensive value at SS, based on the standard defensive positional adjustments, he'd have to be a +2 runs at SS, which I think is pretty unlikely. But the team knows him best and must think he's up for it.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 7, 2023 10:00:51 GMT -5
It does sound from that podcast that Kiké thinks that he's going to be the everyday shortstop. That still makes me a little nervous. I don't think you can ever take a defensive positional change for granted. It goes wrong all the time even when players are going down the defensive structure (Arroyo/RF, Cordero/1B, H. Ramirez/LF, Bogaerts/3B), let alone when a 31-year-old is moving to the hardest non-catcher defensive position for the first sustained period of his career (he has a combined 64 starts at SS spread out over nine seasons, with his highest single-season total being 17 starts in 2018). To put it another way, Kiké has been about +10 runs in CF over the last two years on an annualized basis. Let's be conservative and call that a +7 with some regression to the mean and age-related slippage. In order to match that defensive value at SS, based on the standard defensive positional adjustments, he'd have to be a +2 runs at SS, which I think is pretty unlikely. But the team knows him best and must think he's up for it. I like your second paragraph, but this is hardly a "throw Hanley in LF, how hard could it be" scenario. Kiké has 600 innings at SS, 2500 in the infield in general. For comparison he had 1100 at CF and 2000 in the outfield in general when he became the everyday CF in 2021. The stats are ambiguous though: DRS has him +9 at SS for his career (elite) but OAA has him at -3 (well below average). At 2B in 1700 innings he's +18 by DRS (elite again) and -5 by OAA (lousy). I trust OAA more, but if the team thinks he can be solid in the infield DRS gives at least some support for that.
In general I think this team's best alignment will have Kiké in CF and Mondesi or Story at SS, but I don't have a problem with Kiké at SS as a bridge until one of those guys is healthy.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 7, 2023 10:02:23 GMT -5
It does sound from that podcast that Kiké thinks that he's going to be the everyday shortstop. That still makes me a little nervous. I don't think you can ever take a defensive positional change for granted. It goes wrong all the time even when players are going down the defensive structure (Arroyo/RF, Cordero/1B, H. Ramirez/LF, Bogaerts/3B), let alone when a 31-year-old is moving to the hardest non-catcher defensive position for the first sustained period of his career (he has a combined 64 starts at SS spread out over nine seasons, with his highest single-season total being 17 starts in 2018). To put it another way, Kiké has been about +10 runs in CF over the last two years on an annualized basis. Let's be conservative and call that a +7 with some regression to the mean and age-related slippage. In order to match that defensive value at SS, based on the standard defensive positional adjustments, he'd have to be a +2 runs at SS, which I think is pretty unlikely. But the team knows him best and must think he's up for it. This roster has so much volatility in the lineup that I think for the first half of the year, itâs ok to let Kiké play SS and see how competitive the team is. If weâre midway through the year, in the hunt for a playoff spot, and Kiké makes way more sense in CF, Iâm sure there will be a low cost MIF they could acquire to allow Kiké to move.
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Post by joshuacoffee on Feb 7, 2023 10:13:30 GMT -5
Getting a big year out of Mondesi would be huge in that regard. Or conversely a big first half year out of Duval. Kiké is a far better shortstop for the new rules than Xander was. Hypothetically, Rafaela could force the issue by the trade deadline. This is a great point. The Red Sox regular lineup and the Red Sox regular positions are mismatched right now, with every decision that they can make comfortably forcing another decision that is less comfortable. Better defense that might be enough offence - Verdugo, Kiki, Duval in the OF; Devers, Mondesi, Arroyo, Casas in the IF - but then you are sitting Turner or Yoshida Better offence that might be able to hold up in the field - Yoshida, Duval, Verdugo in the OF; Devers, Kiki, Arroyo, Casas in the IF - but that OF could be, let's say, sub-optimal. The question isn't even as simple as Duval, Mondesi, and Kiki for SS and CF, because all three OF positions are affected. I'm not sold on Duval being able to play an average CF, I don't know how much to buy into the injury story to explain Verdugo's OF performance last year, and scouting reports on Yoshida's defense aren't promising. But the difference at the plate between Mondesi and Turner is probably a bigger delta than what the Sox would gain in defense have Mondesi on the field. Of course, maybe Duval is a great in CF and Verdugo returns to being average or better in RF. That would be ideal. If by some miracle Arroyo holds up, I'm comfortable enough with the IF defense either way though. But the reality is when Arroyo gets hurt Kiki is going to 2nd the this is all sorted out for us by default.
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Post by jmei on Feb 7, 2023 10:33:38 GMT -5
It does sound from that podcast that Kiké thinks that he's going to be the everyday shortstop. That still makes me a little nervous. I don't think you can ever take a defensive positional change for granted. It goes wrong all the time even when players are going down the defensive structure (Arroyo/RF, Cordero/1B, H. Ramirez/LF, Bogaerts/3B), let alone when a 31-year-old is moving to the hardest non-catcher defensive position for the first sustained period of his career (he has a combined 64 starts at SS spread out over nine seasons, with his highest single-season total being 17 starts in 2018). To put it another way, Kiké has been about +10 runs in CF over the last two years on an annualized basis. Let's be conservative and call that a +7 with some regression to the mean and age-related slippage. In order to match that defensive value at SS, based on the standard defensive positional adjustments, he'd have to be a +2 runs at SS, which I think is pretty unlikely. But the team knows him best and must think he's up for it. I like your second paragraph, but this is hardly a "throw Hanley in LF, how hard could it be" scenario. Kiké has 600 innings at SS, 2500 in the infield in general. For comparison he had 1100 at CF and 2000 in the outfield in general when he became the everyday CF in 2021. The stats are ambiguous though: DRS has him +9 at SS for his career (elite) but OAA has him at -3 (well below average). At 2B in 1700 innings he's +18 by DRS (elite again) and -5 by OAA (lousy). I trust OAA more, but if the team thinks he can be solid in the infield DRS gives at least some support for that.
In general I think this team's best alignment will have Kiké in CF and Mondesi or Story at SS, but I don't have a problem with Kiké at SS as a bridge until one of those guys is healthy. Eh, 450+ of those 600+ innings at SS were from 2018 or earlier, and you'd think that if teams thought he could be a plus defensive SS, they would have moved him there (or signed him to play there) earlier in his career. I take the point on "they have other options later in the season," but April games count the same as September games at the end of the day. Just a little too much risk from my POV when there are still decent free agent shortstops out there.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Feb 7, 2023 10:39:45 GMT -5
Kikè has looked pretty good when I’ve seen him play SS. I think he’ll be solid there
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Post by incandenza on Feb 7, 2023 10:50:07 GMT -5
I like your second paragraph, but this is hardly a "throw Hanley in LF, how hard could it be" scenario. Kiké has 600 innings at SS, 2500 in the infield in general. For comparison he had 1100 at CF and 2000 in the outfield in general when he became the everyday CF in 2021. The stats are ambiguous though: DRS has him +9 at SS for his career (elite) but OAA has him at -3 (well below average). At 2B in 1700 innings he's +18 by DRS (elite again) and -5 by OAA (lousy). I trust OAA more, but if the team thinks he can be solid in the infield DRS gives at least some support for that.
In general I think this team's best alignment will have Kiké in CF and Mondesi or Story at SS, but I don't have a problem with Kiké at SS as a bridge until one of those guys is healthy. Eh, 450+ of those 600+ innings at SS were from 2018 or earlier, and you'd think that if teams thought he could be a plus defensive SS, they would have moved him there (or signed him to play there) earlier in his career. I take the point on "they have other options later in the season," but April games count the same as September games at the end of the day. Just a little too much risk from my POV when there are still decent free agent shortstops out there. There is risk there, and it's a judgment call as to how risky you think it is, so fair enough. But you could have said the bolded of Kiké as a CFer prior to 2021 as well.
I wouldn't be comfortable if they had no real backup plan, as with starting JBJ in RF last year, but they hopefully have enough flexibility and depth to make it work without it being an anchor for the team deep into the summer. Moreover, once Story got hurt I don't think they had any better options. (I am aware Elvis Andrus exists, but that's been discussed already.)
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Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2023 11:05:27 GMT -5
I like your second paragraph, but this is hardly a "throw Hanley in LF, how hard could it be" scenario. Kiké has 600 innings at SS, 2500 in the infield in general. For comparison he had 1100 at CF and 2000 in the outfield in general when he became the everyday CF in 2021. The stats are ambiguous though: DRS has him +9 at SS for his career (elite) but OAA has him at -3 (well below average). At 2B in 1700 innings he's +18 by DRS (elite again) and -5 by OAA (lousy). I trust OAA more, but if the team thinks he can be solid in the infield DRS gives at least some support for that.
In general I think this team's best alignment will have Kiké in CF and Mondesi or Story at SS, but I don't have a problem with Kiké at SS as a bridge until one of those guys is healthy. Eh, 450+ of those 600+ innings at SS were from 2018 or earlier, and you'd think that if teams thought he could be a plus defensive SS, they would have moved him there (or signed him to play there) earlier in his career. I take the point on "they have other options later in the season," but April games count the same as September games at the end of the day. Just a little too much risk from my POV when there are still decent free agent shortstops out there. I think as Kiké put it himself on the show with Chris Rose, he's never had the opportunity to play there full time, "but not by choice." In LA, they had Corey Seager at SS (and Justin Turner at 3B even if you were to move Seager off short) basically his whole tenure, except for 2018 when Seager was hurt and they traded for Manny Machado at the deadline. Then when he comes to Boston you have Xander as the fixture there for two years. Heck, even when playing for Team Puerto Rico he had Lindor, Correa, and Javy Baez ahead of him on the depth chart! He's shown flashes of being good there but most of his career his teams have sent him to plug whatever defensive hole they've needed him to.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Feb 7, 2023 12:14:29 GMT -5
Eh, 450+ of those 600+ innings at SS were from 2018 or earlier, and you'd think that if teams thought he could be a plus defensive SS, they would have moved him there (or signed him to play there) earlier in his career. I take the point on "they have other options later in the season," but April games count the same as September games at the end of the day. Just a little too much risk from my POV when there are still decent free agent shortstops out there. I think as Kiké put it himself on the show with Chris Rose, he's never had the opportunity to play there full time, "but not by choice." In LA, they had Corey Seager at SS (and Justin Turner at 3B even if you were to move Seager off short) basically his whole tenure, except for 2018 when Seager was hurt and they traded for Manny Machado at the deadline. Then when he comes to Boston you have Xander as the fixture there for two years. Heck, even when playing for Team Puerto Rico he had Lindor, Correa, and Javy Baez ahead of him on the depth chart! He's shown flashes of being good there but most of his career his teams have sent him to plug whatever defensive hole they've needed him to. Agreed, you can not say Hernandez can not play SS just because he has never been given the opportunity.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 7, 2023 12:45:32 GMT -5
It does sound from that podcast that Kiké thinks that he's going to be the everyday shortstop. That still makes me a little nervous. I don't think you can ever take a defensive positional change for granted. It goes wrong all the time even when players are going down the defensive structure (Arroyo/RF, Cordero/1B, H. Ramirez/LF, Bogaerts/3B), let alone when a 31-year-old is moving to the hardest non-catcher defensive position for the first sustained period of his career (he has a combined 64 starts at SS spread out over nine seasons, with his highest single-season total being 17 starts in 2018). To put it another way, Kiké has been about +10 runs in CF over the last two years on an annualized basis. Let's be conservative and call that a +7 with some regression to the mean and age-related slippage. In order to match that defensive value at SS, based on the standard defensive positional adjustments, he'd have to be a +2 runs at SS, which I think is pretty unlikely. But the team knows him best and must think he's up for it. They don't have to believe he'll have equal defensive value at short for it to be reasonable. Any drop in his defensive value has to be made up for by the gain they think they get from having Duvall/Mondesi instead of Andrus as the full time addition (plus any pay differences, plus any clubhouse implications). Just to be clear I'm not taking a stance on those things, just saying there's other possible logic for the team making this move than believing he'll be just as defensively valuable at short as he was in center.
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Post by 1toolplayer on Feb 7, 2023 13:23:26 GMT -5
I have wondered if there is any willingness on his behalf, or desire from the team to have Mondesi cross train in the CF as well? I know he hasn't done it, but you would think the speed would translate, and given the blood lines, I'm sure there is enough natural ability there too. Having him become an up the middle utility player, who switch hits, and has elite speed (I don't expect the knee injury to sap him of that is such a valuable bench player, and why I think KH and even Rafaela are such valuable players to this org, too.
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Post by jimgosger on Feb 7, 2023 13:31:34 GMT -5
I don't think you have a guy coming off ACL surgery move to a position he has never played before.
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Post by Edward Hand on Feb 7, 2023 13:33:25 GMT -5
Mondesi in CF I can't really see happening, especially considering the need for him in the infield at the moment.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 7, 2023 13:49:45 GMT -5
I don't think you have a guy coming off ACL surgery move to a position he has never played before. Even if the position would be easier for a guy coming back from ACL surgery than SS, which is all sudden lateral moves?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 7, 2023 13:54:24 GMT -5
Mondesi in CF I can't really see happening, especially considering the need for him in the infield at the moment. If they just switch he and Kiké’s positions for no reason I’d be flabbergasted
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 7, 2023 14:00:47 GMT -5
Eh, 450+ of those 600+ innings at SS were from 2018 or earlier, and you'd think that if teams thought he could be a plus defensive SS, they would have moved him there (or signed him to play there) earlier in his career. I take the point on "they have other options later in the season," but April games count the same as September games at the end of the day. Just a little too much risk from my POV when there are still decent free agent shortstops out there. I think as Kiké put it himself on the show with Chris Rose, he's never had the opportunity to play there full time, "but not by choice." In LA, they had Corey Seager at SS (and Justin Turner at 3B even if you were to move Seager off short) basically his whole tenure, except for 2018 when Seager was hurt and they traded for Manny Machado at the deadline. Then when he comes to Boston you have Xander as the fixture there for two years. Heck, even when playing for Team Puerto Rico he had Lindor, Correa, and Javy Baez ahead of him on the depth chart! He's shown flashes of being good there but most of his career his teams have sent him to plug whatever defensive hole they've needed him to. In his several season in the minors, Kiké played 375 games at 2b and 62 at SS. In 2012 at A+ he played zero games at SS, when the most innings at SS were given to 19th rounder Ben Orloff, followed by 2009 first rounder Jiovanni Mier, 27th rounder Alex Todd, and Chan Moon from Korea. None of them made mlb, though of course Mier was a guy you wanted to give innings to.
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Feb 7, 2023 15:40:03 GMT -5
At this point, 60% of us were all wrong as far as who was going to be the short stop in 23. Poke me again in June when that decision is finally made. For now, it's going to be SS by committee.
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Post by 1toolplayer on Feb 9, 2023 9:51:03 GMT -5
Mondesi in CF I can't really see happening, especially considering the need for him in the infield at the moment. If they just switch he and Kiké’s positions for no reason I’d be flabbergasted I didn't suggest they switch their positions, especially for no reason, but rather wondered if they viewed Mondesi as the type of SS they viewed as capable of playing CF as well. With the goal ultimately increasing their roster flexibility. There seems to be an increase in these transitions in recent years w KH himself, Jazz (who's doing this coming off a back injury), Chris Taylor, Trea Turner, Myles Straw, and Christopher Morel, and even Rafaela. We even heard talks of the Yankees trading for Story and wanting to put him in CF when he was a Rockies still. Taking fly balls in Spring Training and during his rehab would seemingly be the time to do that if there is any mutual desire to increase his roster flexibility, because I think he has the athletic profile to be good at it. Plus coming off the injury, I'd probably rather see him on the grass than say 2B as a second position, and have enough depth at 3B behind Raffy.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 9, 2023 13:35:17 GMT -5
They already have considerable roster flexibility and will have more when Story returns and should Rafaela make his way to Boston. I understand its fun to speculate, but I don't believe they'll be asking Mondesi to take on CF. I'll bet the FO would be just be glad to see him roam the infield to start off.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 16, 2023 10:14:18 GMT -5
Soooo.... just hypothetically.... why has the team not been interested in these two? I have my own reasons for not being particularly enthusiastic about either of them, but are there tea leaves about the front office's thinking?
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