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2023 40-Man Roster Discussion
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Post by levi on Jan 12, 2023 14:27:16 GMT -5
I wonder if a GM has ever DFA'd a guy to accelerate a trade market. Theoretically, if you're a team that's far back in the waiver order trying to negotiate a deal for a player, that player getting DFA'd could put more pressure on you to get the move done or risk someone with a higher priority getting claimed. For the people that love to make the god awful straw man arguments about Bloom, I'm not suggesting he's a genius for doing this or even doing it at all, but I'm just wondering out loud if that plays a role. I would think so. I wonder if SDP would part with Eguy Rosario for Seabold? They have no need for Rosario (especially with Kim and Tatis later in the year) but desperately need SP help.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 12, 2023 14:34:05 GMT -5
Letting assets go for limited return, if any, is becoming a Hallmark of the Bloom years. Yeah just absolutely criminal that Bloom didn't get Juan Soto back for Seabold
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Post by jmei on Jan 12, 2023 14:34:11 GMT -5
Without checking there’s probably like a couple dozen minor league FA starters who project to be about as good in MLB as Seabold available, no? He’s been bad since his injury. Seabold is projected for a 4.53 FIP by Steamer. Some familiar names projected in that neighborhood by Steamer are Nick Pivetta (4.44), Taijuan Walker (4.50), Michael Kopech (4.54), and Cal Quantrill (4.56). That's probably a little optimistic on Seabold, but even if you adjust it down a little, there aren't a ton of guys of that quality available for the major league minimum, and having an option matters a lot too.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jan 12, 2023 14:49:10 GMT -5
I really have no idea how they project Seabold to have about the same FIP as Pivetta. Pivetta's MLB xFIP was .2 lower than Seabold's AAA xFIP last year.
I wonder if there's an issue here projecting the MLB stats of a guy who is only in the majors if he's having a 70th percentile season (otherwise he toils in the minors).
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Post by Guidas on Jan 12, 2023 14:56:11 GMT -5
Without checking there’s probably like a couple dozen minor league FA starters who project to be about as good in MLB as Seabold available, no? He’s been bad since his injury. Seabold is projected for a 4.53 FIP by Steamer. Some familiar names projected in that neighborhood by Steamer are Nick Pivetta (4.44), Taijuan Walker (4.50), Michael Kopech (4.54), and Cal Quantrill (4.56). That's probably a little optimistic on Seabold, but even if you adjust it down a little, there aren't a ton of guys of that quality available for the major league minimum, and having an option matters a lot too. I'd love to see the justification behind protecting Ort, who is a mop-up guy at best until he shows otherwise and goes significant periods of time where he can't find the plate, over Seabold, who is a 5/6 and can do bullpen duty/spot start.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 12, 2023 14:56:28 GMT -5
Without checking there’s probably like a couple dozen minor league FA starters who project to be about as good in MLB as Seabold available, no? He’s been bad since his injury. Seabold is projected for a 4.53 FIP by Steamer. Some familiar names projected in that neighborhood by Steamer are Nick Pivetta (4.44), Taijuan Walker (4.50), Michael Kopech (4.54), and Cal Quantrill (4.56). That's probably a little optimistic on Seabold, but even if you adjust it down a little, there aren't a ton of guys of that quality available for the major league minimum, and having an option matters a lot too. I guess I just think that’s more than a little optimistic on Seabold, but fair enough. Agree on the option but if my (seemingly erroneous) assumption had been correct then it wouldn’t really matter because they could just get another one of those guys later if they DFA’d the first one.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 12, 2023 14:59:35 GMT -5
Seabold is projected for a 4.53 FIP by Steamer. Some familiar names projected in that neighborhood by Steamer are Nick Pivetta (4.44), Taijuan Walker (4.50), Michael Kopech (4.54), and Cal Quantrill (4.56). That's probably a little optimistic on Seabold, but even if you adjust it down a little, there aren't a ton of guys of that quality available for the major league minimum, and having an option matters a lot too. I'd love to see the justification behind protecting Ort, who is a mop-up guy at best until he shows otherwise and goes significant periods of time where he can't find the plate, over Seabold, who is a 5/6 and can do bullpen duty/spot start. If the team agreed with you that Seabold was a number 5 they wouldn’t have done this I mean isn't that obvious? Disagree with the team on your outlook for these guys, that’s fair, but you’re presenting a set of choices that very clearly the team did not think they had.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jan 12, 2023 15:03:08 GMT -5
Guidas something tells me you would have some negative posts on the subject if Connor Seabold were penciled in to be the #5 starter in a couple months.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jan 12, 2023 15:05:30 GMT -5
Without checking there’s probably like a couple dozen minor league FA starters who project to be about as good in MLB as Seabold available, no? He’s been bad since his injury. Yes, very bad. DFA may be because he just does not look like he will ever be the pitcher he was before the injuries! I am not the least bit surprised by the DFA. The Red Sox have depth starters who are better. All of the DFAs were warranted as it is not the 50-man roster… It is the 40 man. Ward and Politi may indeed be good MLB pitchers, but even with the DFA of Darwinzon and Seabold it still leave 23 pitchers on the 40-man! The Red Sox may feel they can turn Wyatt Mills into John Schreiber…. Bottom line Taylor and Ort may be the next DFA candidates as the position players only number 17 on the 40-man and a 2B/SS or 2 needs to be added.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jan 12, 2023 15:36:03 GMT -5
I dont know if it's me but the couple of starts Seabold had at the majors he got racked. Brasier survives another day. He is the survivor.
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Post by jbur521 on Jan 12, 2023 16:40:22 GMT -5
With the exception of the Rule 5 guys, isn't that just a reflection of the fact that they had no trade value whatsoever? In which case I find it hard to blame mismanagement for their loss. As for the Rule 5 guys, I think it would be unreasonable to say they should have added Noah Song to the 40-man roster. We'll see how it goes with Ward; they had much more information on him than we did so I'm willing to let that play out, at least, before judging it. I actually have a hunch that the loss of Politi will end up stinging the most.
To a degree I think you're right....their trade value is certainly limited and I'm trying to be realistic about that. That said, each of one of these guys, with the exception of Bazardo, is on a 40-man roster so there should be some value there....certainly something more than cash considerations. Totally agree with you on Song. Not much they could have done there...my inclusion of him in the list wasn't meant as a targeted dig at Bloom. I think moving forward I'd like to see Bloom and company be a bit more proactive about 40-man roster forecasting and making trades earlier on to seek value in return for guys that they may otherwise lose to waivers in situations with limited leverage. I could have imagined a package of say Ward, Downs, and Seabold yielding something quite useful at last year's trade deadline. Hindsight bias for sure, but I do think the best GMs are a step ahead of their 40-man roster management. with Bloom's emphasis on building minors depth, should be many tough decisions each year on the 40
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Post by runner on Jan 12, 2023 20:06:47 GMT -5
Seabold was looking more like a bullpen guy at 91-93 mph on the fastball in short stints.
There's like 8 guys better than that on this 40 man. I doubt he would be a good enough swing man at this point.
He just never came back from those injuries in 2021. He was on a fast track to be a starter by 2022 if it happened. Too bad it didn't work out.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,216
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Post by cdj on Jan 12, 2023 20:11:45 GMT -5
Seabold is projected for a 4.53 FIP by Steamer. Some familiar names projected in that neighborhood by Steamer are Nick Pivetta (4.44), Taijuan Walker (4.50), Michael Kopech (4.54), and Cal Quantrill (4.56). That's probably a little optimistic on Seabold, but even if you adjust it down a little, there aren't a ton of guys of that quality available for the major league minimum, and having an option matters a lot too. I'd love to see the justification behind protecting Ort, who is a mop-up guy at best until he shows otherwise and goes significant periods of time where he can't find the plate, over Seabold, who is a 5/6 and can do bullpen duty/spot start. He hit 102 towards the end of the season, they probably feel like he’s more likely to positively impact the roster. I would agree with that. Seabold doesn’t have a good pitch now that his changeup feel hasn’t come back since his injury. He throws 90. I make a lot of money betting against the Sox when he pitches It sucks about his changeup….unfortunately that completely changes his major league outlook imo. Injuries have wiped out a couple awesome pitches in his change and Groome’s curve
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jan 13, 2023 10:27:10 GMT -5
I can't believe Seabold and Downs fetch nothing on the open market. Seablod will probably get claimed early in the waiver order, like Downs.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 13, 2023 10:37:25 GMT -5
I can't believe Seabold and Downs fetch nothing on the open market. Seablod will probably get claimed early in the waiver order, like Downs. We’ll find out because if multiple teams lower on the waiver order want him he’ll be traded before he gets there.
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Post by ramireja on Jan 13, 2023 12:27:51 GMT -5
I really have no idea how they project Seabold to have about the same FIP as Pivetta. Pivetta's MLB xFIP was .2 lower than Seabold's AAA xFIP last year. I wonder if there's an issue here projecting the MLB stats of a guy who is only in the majors if he's having a 70th percentile season (otherwise he toils in the minors). xFIP isn't kind to Seabold since he's a flyball pitcher but I think ignores the fact that he's typically been above average in producing IFFB and avoiding LD. Despite not getting a lot of GB, Seaboard's batted ball profile isn't as bad as it may seem and I think xFIP may undermine that. See here for FaBIO's batted ball breakdown for his AAA performance last year:
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Post by patford on Jan 14, 2023 11:51:56 GMT -5
I can't believe Seabold and Downs fetch nothing on the open market. Seablod will probably get claimed early in the waiver order, like Downs. We’ll find out because if multiple teams lower on the waiver order want him he’ll be traded before he gets there. Seabold probably needs Tommy John surgery but is trying to work through the elbow strain rather than have the surgery and miss a year. It may be the Sox feel surgery is in his future and are taking a chance he will clear wavers because other teams will feel the same way.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 17, 2023 12:25:07 GMT -5
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Post by julyanmorley on Jan 17, 2023 12:30:36 GMT -5
That's two PTBNLs we're waiting for now, along with the Hoy Park return.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,216
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Post by cdj on Jan 17, 2023 13:14:59 GMT -5
brutal landing spot for him
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,907
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Post by nomar on Jan 17, 2023 13:18:56 GMT -5
Davenport has the entire Rockies pitching staff combining for negative WAR in 2023. Yes, nobody wants to pitch in Colorado, but at least Seabold has a real opportunity for consistent work if he plays well.
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Post by sibbysisti on Jan 17, 2023 14:22:18 GMT -5
Don’t expect much back from Colorado in the Seabold transaction, but then again, what did we give up to acquire him? A lot was expected from him at the time of the trade as the better prospect of the two former Phillies.
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Post by runner on Jan 17, 2023 14:38:13 GMT -5
That's two PTBNLs we're waiting for now, along with the Hoy Park return. Could be just cash.
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Post by Addam603 on Jan 17, 2023 16:09:27 GMT -5
Don’t expect much back from Colorado in the Seabold transaction, but then again, what did we give up to acquire him? A lot was expected from him at the time of the trade as the better prospect of the two former Phillies. Is it crazy to think we’d get something back? All of his warts aside, he is still a starting pitcher with options that could potentially be a major league pitcher. That’s worth something. Not a top prospect or anything, but not organizational filler either.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,216
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Post by cdj on Jan 17, 2023 16:15:20 GMT -5
I’d imagine we get something (random lotto ticket) for Seabold and cash for Park
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