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2023 40-Man Roster Discussion
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Post by Addam603 on Jan 18, 2023 14:30:33 GMT -5
Another ball needs to drop with the Duvall signing. I think the most realistic options are
1. DFA Ort 2. Dalbec Trade 3. DFA or Trade Brasier 4. DFA Taylor 5. Duran Trade
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 18, 2023 15:16:26 GMT -5
When is story eligible to be moved to the 60 day?
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Post by julyanmorley on Jan 18, 2023 15:34:54 GMT -5
When is story eligible to be moved to the 60 day? 60 day IL comes back when pitchers and catchers report
It would make sense if they tried to delay the completion of one acquisition until 5 minutes after they can get Story off the 40 man
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jan 18, 2023 15:38:05 GMT -5
Ort, Brasier or Taylor have been on my "say goodbye" wish list for months now.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 18, 2023 17:05:34 GMT -5
Ort, Brasier or Taylor have been on my "say goodbye" wish list for months now. Doubtful that Brasier or Taylor get released. Red Sox just guaranteed their contracts for the season last week.
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Post by jmei on Jan 18, 2023 19:07:23 GMT -5
Zach Kelly is a guy who doesn't get brought up often enough in these conversations. He's right up there with Ort for me.
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Post by runner on Jan 18, 2023 20:16:23 GMT -5
Another ball needs to drop with the Duvall signing. I think the most realistic options are 1. DFA Ort 2. Dalbec Trade 3. DFA or Trade Brasier 4. DFA Taylor 5. Duran Trade Makes most sense to trade Dalbec. There's really isn't a spot for him on the roster. Duvall and Turner can play first base and platoon. Dalbec is what 28 this year soon? There's not any upside anymore there.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,053
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Post by cdj on Jan 18, 2023 20:22:29 GMT -5
Zach Kelly is a guy who doesn't get brought up often enough in these conversations. He's right up there with Ort for me. imo He doesn’t get brought up often in these conversations because he’s a good pitcher with an actual plus pitch. I’d turf Ort, Brasier, Mills, and Taylor before him. Probably German too.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jan 19, 2023 0:00:27 GMT -5
Zach Kelly is a guy who doesn't get brought up often enough in these conversations. He's right up there with Ort for me. imo He doesn’t get brought up often in these conversations because he’s a good pitcher with an actual plus pitch. I’d turf Ort, Brasier, Mills, and Taylor before him. Probably German too. Agreed on Kelly being a solid bullpen arm. IMO, the next shoe to fall is Ort, or a trade of Dalbec or Duran.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 19, 2023 0:18:54 GMT -5
Kelly having been invited to the RDP seems to indicate he's safe.
Ort having been left off seems to indicate to the contrary.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 19, 2023 6:37:50 GMT -5
I would like to see the Sox tie up Houck on a Whitlock-like deal.
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Post by jmei on Jan 19, 2023 10:17:03 GMT -5
I moved some Tapia discussion to the minor league free agents thread.
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Post by runner on Jan 19, 2023 10:26:25 GMT -5
I would like to see the Sox tie up Houck on a Whitlock-like deal. He's got 5 years of control and he's coming off a back surgery. I also think it's a good idea, for both him and the team. Guarantees him money and you basically controll him all throughout his prime years if it's a seven year deal.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jan 19, 2023 21:09:18 GMT -5
Signing Tapia, even as minor leaguer, makes me think Duran is countermove for Duvall, even if it’s a DFA
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Post by runner on Jan 19, 2023 21:54:30 GMT -5
Signing Tapia, even as minor leaguer, makes me think Duran is countermove for Duvall, even if it’s a DFA Weird take. Tapia is depth. So is Duran. The Sox need more outfielders. Not less.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jan 19, 2023 23:22:54 GMT -5
Duran is at best your sixth outfielder right now, not including Tapia, who is likely ahead of Duran on the depth chart based on what we saw last year. What’s the point of having him on the 40?
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Post by iakovos11 on Jan 20, 2023 8:08:43 GMT -5
Tapia and Allen signed minor league deals. No need to jettison Duran for them unless and until they prove they need a 40-man spot. And maybe they have plans for Duran at 2nd? Maybe they trade him? But no way to the DFA.
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Post by seamus on Jan 20, 2023 11:43:55 GMT -5
Have to think it's an Ort DFA and/or Dalbec trade. Maybe they trade Duran, too, but Dalbec has no role on the 2023 team unless there are injuries, at which point you're still probably better off with whatever you could trade him for. He's a 250 PA with half of those against lefties sort of guy, but I just don't think that's worth the bench spot with Turner around.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 23, 2023 14:29:22 GMT -5
First, if the Duvall roster spot was going to be created by a DFA, they would have done that already, right? So they're trying to trade someone.
Duran is going to be the starting 2B (platoon with Arroyo) -- read my last 2 posts in the Rest of the Offseason thread.
Dalbec is the only guy on the 40-man who can be an up-and-down guy if Turner, Casas, or Devers needs to go on the IL, and even if you had 40-man depth at corner infielder, selling low on him makes no sense.
If you look at the pitching depth chart, it's pretty clear that Brasier is the guy they're trying to move. He's out of options and, though still useful, is thus blocking two even better pitchers.
---- optional detail with stats
The seven starters (including Houck) begin the pitching depth chart. Jansen, Martin, and Rodriguez are acquisitions with no options left, Barnes has no options left and still projects as at least a 7th inning guy, and Schrieber is way too good to option. So now we're up to 12 guys for 13 spots.
Since Brasier is now out of options, if you keep him and everyone is healthy, he's the last guy in the pen, and that means using Taylor's last option and leaving yourself with 1 LHR.
Now, it's almost never the case that there's no one injured, which is why the projected roster here has always included one more pitcher than there are roster spots for. But lets see who would be called up depending on how many guys were on the IL, if you keep Brassier.
1 man hurt: add Taylor. Trading Brasier guarantees his spot, and opens up a spot for the next guy on the depth chart when 1 guy is hurt. And that guy is ...
2: Crawford as a multi-inning reliever. In his second stint last year, starting in mid-June, he had a .289 xwOBA and 3.33 ERA in his first 9 starts and a 5-inning bulk appearance, in 54 IP. He did get destroyed in his last 3 starts (.400 xwOBA, 12.08 ERA) but then went on the IL, so that certainly looks like pitching hurt. Brasier had 62.1 IP in his whole season and had a .309 xwOBA.
Pitching in relief improves your numbers, so it's easy to argue that you'd rather have Crawford on the staff than Brasier. Which is to say, if you trade Brasier and 1 guy is hurt, you're better off because you've replaced him with Crawford as the last man in the pen.
3. Wyatt Mills, who had a .315 xwOBA (and .299 wOBA; Brasier had a .336). They traded for him and obviously like him. If you trade Brasier, he's the guy who's on the roster whenever 2 guys are hurt, which is pretty common.
------- proceed to conclusion
Brasier is the 16h best pitcher they have, behind Crawford and Mills (or vice versa if you prefer), but since he's out of options, he is blocking them unless a bunch of guys get hurt. Trading him makes the team better.
In terms of deeper depth, you still have Winckowski, Kelly, German, and Ort, and further in the season you'll add Mata, Walter, and Murphy. The odds that you'll miss Brasier are slim.
HOW I COULD BE WRONG
It's possible that they have a much higher frequency of pitcher IL trips projected. If 3 guys hurt at once is common (the way I think 2 is), then both Crawford and Mills will see lots of time in MLB and Brasier as the 16th guy may be someone you want to keep around. In that case they're shopping someone else, perhaps Abreu as they've added so many NRI outfielders. And in that case, they might decide that no one is offering enough and DFA Ort after all.
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Post by manfred on Jan 23, 2023 14:38:02 GMT -5
First, if the Duvall roster spot was going to be created by a DFA, they would have done that already, right? So they're trying to trade someone.
Duran is going to be the starting 2B (platoon with Arroyo) -- read my last 2 posts in the Rest of the Offseason thread.
Dalbec is the only guy on the 40-man who can be an up-and-down guy if Turner, Casas, or Devers needs to go on the IL, and even if you had 40-man depth at corner infielder, selling low on him makes no sense.
If you look at the pitching depth chart, it's pretty clear that Brasier is the guy they're trying to move. He's out of options and, though still useful, is thus blocking two even better pitchers.
---- optional detail with stats
The seven starters (including Houck) begin the pitching depth chart. Jansen, Martin, and Rodriguez are acquisitions with no options left, Barnes has no options left and still projects as at least a 7th inning guy, and Schrieber is way too good to option. So now we're up to 12 guys for 13 spots.
Since Brasier is now out of options, if you keep him and everyone is healthy, he's the last guy in the pen, and that means using Taylor's last option and leaving yourself with 1 LHR.
Now, it's almost never the case that there's no one injured, which is why the projected roster here has always included one more pitcher than there are roster spots for. But lets see who would be called up depending on how many guys were on the IL, if you keep Brassier.
1 man hurt: add Taylor. Trading Brasier guarantees his spot, and opens up a spot for the next guy on the depth chart when 1 guy is hurt. And that guy is ...
2: Crawford as a multi-inning reliever. In his second stint last year, starting in mid-June, he had a .289 xwOBA and 3.33 ERA in his first 9 starts and a 5-inning bulk appearance, in 54 IP. He did get destroyed in his last 3 starts (.400 xwOBA, 12.08 ERA) but then went on the IL, so that certainly looks like pitching hurt. Brasier had 62.1 IP in his whole season and had a .309 xwOBA.
Pitching in relief improves your numbers, so it's easy to argue that you'd rather have Crawford on the staff than Brasier. Which is to say, if you trade Brasier and 1 guy is hurt, you're better off because you've replaced him with Crawford as the last man in the pen.
3. Wyatt Mills, who had a .315 xwOBA (and .299 wOBA; Brasier had a .336). They traded for him and obviously like him. If you trade Brasier, he's the guy who's on the roster whenever 2 guys are hurt, which is pretty common.
------- proceed to conclusion
Brasier is the 16h best pitcher they have, behind Crawford and Mills (or vice versa if you prefer), but since he's out of options, he is blocking them unless a bunch of guys get hurt. Trading him makes the team better.
In terms of deeper depth, you still have Winckowski, Kelly, German, and Ort, and further in the season you'll add Mata, Walter, and Murphy. The odds that you'll miss Brasier are slim.
HOW I COULD BE WRONG
It's possible that they have a much higher frequency of pitcher IL trips projected. If 3 guys hurt at once is common (the way I think 2 is), then both Crawford and Mills will see lots of time in MLB and Brasier as the 16th guy may be someone you want to keep around. In that case they're shopping someone else, perhaps Abreu as they've added so many NRI outfielders. And in that case, they might decide that no one is offering enough and DFA Ort after all.
I love a guy who can sum up “how I could be wrong” in a few sentences.
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,505
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Post by shagworthy on Jan 23, 2023 17:04:21 GMT -5
I am shocked no one has posted "There is a new Sheriff in town.." Missed opportunity.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jan 23, 2023 17:09:24 GMT -5
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,505
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Post by shagworthy on Jan 23, 2023 17:25:22 GMT -5
Thank you, balance is restored in the world.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 24, 2023 18:36:47 GMT -5
So with Barnes DFA'd and Duvall official the Red Sox now actually have one open 40 man spot the moment spring training starts and they move Story to the 60 day. That spot could go to Tapia, Allen or Alfaro, or leaves the team room for another acquisition (that they couldn't make official until spring training starts with another corresponding move).
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Post by keninten on Jan 25, 2023 3:36:39 GMT -5
I really like the way this roster is being put together. It seems like a good fit with Cora. He is good at interchanging players and knowing each players strengths. Cora seems weaker in his bullpen usage but having so much more depth and quality this year should help set roles in the bullpen. Barnes shocked me but when I`ve had time to think about it. His 2 months at the end of the year seemed to be against bad lineups and he just seemed to be getting lucky. Hoping Paxton is in the bullpen and builds his arm back up. The OF is still a little thin but has better depth than I was expecting. The team defense was bad at the beginning of the offseason but seems to have been upgraded.
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