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2023 40-Man Roster Discussion
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 24, 2022 6:44:18 GMT -5
Trading an 18 year old for a JAG that was DFAed makes a ton of sense! You can never have too many scrubs on the 40-man You toy with the characters without knowing who they are Is he worth a 40-man roster spot? If the team claimed him and outrighted him like they do to lots of other guys, this move is fine. But now you have yet another JAG taking up another spot.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 24, 2022 8:39:07 GMT -5
I won’t have Orlando Cabrera bashing. He was worth 1.8 bWAR in 58 games for the Sox. That is pretty good. And I loved him. He was a big time player. This is my line in the sand. Cabrera also kept Manny's a$$ in line. He wasn't going to pull any shenanigans or yank himself out of the lineup. Cabrers got in his head and made it clear they were going to fight if Manny pulled himself out of the lineup. So I guess you can say that Cabrera was willing to compile more WAR stats than he already was. He was willing to go to WAR with Manny and Manny wanted no part of that with the feisty SS, lol.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 24, 2022 23:01:12 GMT -5
You toy with the characters without knowing who they are Is he worth a 40-man roster spot? If the team claimed him and outrighted him like they do to lots of other guys, this move is fine. But now you have yet another JAG taking up another spot. Five DSL pitchers got invites to the Fall Performance Program from the DSL. Lobo was not one. This is an incredibly silly argument. Giving up Inmer Lobo to cut the line on a waiver claim is a whatever move.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 25, 2022 0:04:24 GMT -5
A thought, phrased as a philosophical argument (P = premise, C = Conclusion). "Premises" are statements believed to be true. P1. So far, if there has been any correlation between well-sourced reports about what Bloom is looking to do, and what he's actually done, it's negative. It seems as if their M.O. is to leak what they'd like other teams to believe they're looking to do, and tell no one about what they actually have in mind. P2. They went over the tax limit last year when the odds were very much against it paying off by getting them into the the playoffs. This strongly suggests that they actually place less value on the penalties than we think. What's the projected talent value of Rodon or Verlander minus the penalties, versus Senga, etc. without them? P3. This team still makes a lot of money. The owner has been wiling to spend. Being a serious contender next year by ending the "Tampa Bay North" nonsense will more than pay for the money it takes, when you add the change in fan attitudes.
P4. They just filled the LHR need with a dirt-cheap attractive upside guy, which is consistent with saving money to spend on other positions.
P4. It's difficult to see them getting anywhere near $75M in new salary (saving $5M for deadline trades) by signing the rumored targets, including Xander.
P5. The only very expensive position player who fills a need is Nimmo. I may well be wrong about his being unlikely to sign with the Sox because Fenway is a bad fit, but given that it appears to be, and how many other teams will be after him, it can't be the case that they are banking on signing him.
P6. Bloom just stated that they haven't ruled any FA out. He'd say that anyway, of course, but he may well be telling the truth.
P7. In today's Globe, O'Halloran is quoted as saying the Sox want to build a "championship-caliber rotation." What does that mean? From 2010 to 2017 only one WS winner had two starters with 3.7 bWAR or more, the exception being the curse-busting '16 Cubs (who had 3). In the 5 latest years four of the 5 WS winners have had 2 starters with 3.7+ WAR, and the '19 Nats and '22 Astros had 3 each (the '20 Dodgers were the exception).
P8. To even compete in the AL East you have to be a championship-caliber team. Per P3 above, they need to be a serious contender.
P9. Nathan Eovaldi, a rumored target, has had one season in his career with 2.4 bWAR or better. Michael Wacha, who seems like an excellent bang for-buck depth option (and O'Hallaron mentioned adding depth), has had seasons of 3.0 and 3.3 (last year). Neither guy is a game 2 starter the way the game is now.
C. Reports to the contrary, they are still in on Rodon and maybe Verlander and DeGrom as well (although the latter two might require filling both DH / OF and corner OF via trade).
3.7 WAR feels like an arbitrary number to include Price in the 2018 Red Sox count. If you raise it to 4.0 they had one guy - Sale - who wasn't even very good in the playoffs anyways. I also disagree with P4 - I think it's really easy to see how they spend $75M without getting one of those guys and multiple posters here have laid out paths to doing it. Not to say they definitely won't but I disagree with this premise, as well as the premise that they need to do this to have a chance next year. Between Sale, Bello, Paxton, Whitlock and an addition like Senga/Eovaldi, they could get to that 3.5+ WAR range across multiple guys anyhow. I started with 2022 and worked backwards. I picked 3.7 WAR because both Framber Valdesz and Cristian Javier were 3.7, and they were both intimidating. After all the guys who were that good (and I should gave included Kershaw, Gonsolin, and May from 2020, prorated to 162 games), the next best guy is either Julio Urias's prorated 3.0 or Anibal Sanchez ('19 Nats) 2.8. The idea is to put a ballpark number on the quality of a #2 playoff starter that is so good that the other team has to include them in their story about how to win 4 games.
I just looked at all the losing WS teams and the same pattern holds. 2018 Dodgers had Kershaw and Buhler and a big dropoff to Ryu at 2.5. 2019 Astros had the awesome Verlander / Cole duo and nobody else at 1.8 or above. Phillies this year had Nola and Wheeler and then Suarez at 2.5. The '21 Astros were led by McCullers at 3.3, so it would be fair to use 3.5 WAR as the goal for your #2 starer.
But the fact remains that all 5 winners and 3 of the 5 losers of the last 5 WS had 2 or more guys with 3.7 WAR (or the COVID equivalent).
The scouting reports on Senga are iffy about being that good. I completely agree that Bello and Whitlock have the potential, and you can also hope that Eovaldi has a 2021-like season.
As far as spending all the available money, I cannot find a FA RHB that seems to me to be a good idea. You need a DH or LHB on the bench who can play the OF, as that unlocks Kiké's versatility. Signing Abreu would mean trading Hosmer and adding two LHB who can play some RF, at a lot more cost. If Abreu were secretly better than his numbers this could work, but the opposite is true; he's more than 20% less good as a hitter from the 7th inning on.
Xander, Senga, and Eovaldi project to $58M, and hometown discounts should trim that by $2M +/- $1M. That means that you need Nimmo to spend close to the limit. I do think that's one the the plans they're considering, especially as Nimmo has name value, and would be happy with that (if they trade for a RH DH / OF) ...
But my argument is actually only that they are still considering the elite starters, just as Bloom implied. You can remove the two premises you disagree with and it's still a strong argument. I might add that adding one of the elite trio would take a lot of pressure off of Sale, and that can't hurt, while at the same time challenging his ego in a healthy way.
I don't think it's likely, but neither is it impossible.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Nov 25, 2022 4:11:48 GMT -5
For all of the under $100K IFA's we have signed in the past few years, here are how many remain in the organization. I couldn't go much further due to the IFA restrictions and the N/A's under bonus listings, but I imagine that if I lumped them in with the <$100K signings that it wouldn't change my point.
2021: 15/17 2020: 10/25 2019: 6/30 2018: 10/59
As much as we want the next Mata, Bello, Jimenez, or Rafaela (only one of which having made the majors at this point), the heavy likelihood is that their upside is being traded before being released.
In 10 years if THIS is what we are upset about as a fanbase, then we have a lot of things in the world going well, way too much time on our hands, or a combination of the two.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Nov 25, 2022 11:02:43 GMT -5
SoxProspect currently has the 2023 projected roster with:
Worcester has 15 players that are currently on the 40-man. Portland has one.
That leave 24 players on the 40-man for a 26 player MLB roster. Needless to say, some of the AAA players will be traded, waiver, or DFA to make room for those additions to the 26-man. Rodriguez and Park were just added to the 40-man as improvements to Darwinzon/Taylor and Park over Chang, but the next question is who gets trimmed when SS, RF, starter, …. positions are filled? My guess for removal would be Rolando Hernandez, Darwinzon, Jeter Downs.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 25, 2022 11:27:19 GMT -5
SoxProspect currently has the 2023 projected roster with: Worcester has 15 players that are currently on the 40-man. Portland has one. That leave 24 players on the 40-man for a 26 player MLB roster. Needless to say, some of the AAA players will be traded, waiver, or DFA to make room for those additions to the 26-man. Rodriguez and Park were just added to the 40-man as improvements to Darwinzon/Taylor and Park over Chang, but the next question is who gets trimmed when SS, RF, starter, …. positions are filled? My guess for removal would be Rolando Hernandez, Darwinzon, Jeter Downs. This was a point we discussed on the podcast this week. Now, this is assuming everyone is healthy (save for the one extra guy we bake into the MLB projection), but for those who've raised the "why didn't they just DFA Chang or Franchy to protect Ward?", there's your answer. Put another way, the 40-man is full and they still need at last 4 players for the MLB roster. Lots of movement left to be made.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 25, 2022 11:40:07 GMT -5
3.7 WAR feels like an arbitrary number to include Price in the 2018 Red Sox count. If you raise it to 4.0 they had one guy - Sale - who wasn't even very good in the playoffs anyways. I also disagree with P4 - I think it's really easy to see how they spend $75M without getting one of those guys and multiple posters here have laid out paths to doing it. Not to say they definitely won't but I disagree with this premise, as well as the premise that they need to do this to have a chance next year. Between Sale, Bello, Paxton, Whitlock and an addition like Senga/Eovaldi, they could get to that 3.5+ WAR range across multiple guys anyhow. I started with 2022 and worked backwards. I picked 3.7 WAR because both Framber Valdesz and Cristian Javier were 3.7, and they were both intimidating. After all the guys who were that good (and I should gave included Kershaw, Gonsolin, and May from 2020, prorated to 162 games), the next best guy is either Julio Urias's prorated 3.0 or Anibal Sanchez ('19 Nats) 2.8. The idea is to put a ballpark number on the quality of a #2 playoff starter that is so good that the other team has to include them in their story about how to win 4 games.
I just looked at all the losing WS teams and the same pattern holds. 2018 Dodgers had Kershaw and Buhler and a big dropoff to Ryu at 2.5. 2019 Astros had the awesome Verlander / Cole duo and nobody else at 1.8 or above. Phillies this year had Nola and Wheeler and then Suarez at 2.5. The '21 Astros were led by McCullers at 3.3, so it would be fair to use 3.5 WAR as the goal for your #2 starer.
But the fact remains that all 5 winners and 3 of the 5 losers of the last 5 WS had 2 or more guys with 3.7 WAR (or the COVID equivalent).
The scouting reports on Senga are iffy about being that good. I completely agree that Bello and Whitlock have the potential, and you can also hope that Eovaldi has a 2021-like season.
As far as spending all the available money, I cannot find a FA RHB that seems to me to be a good idea. You need a DH or LHB on the bench who can play the OF, as that unlocks Kiké's versatility. Signing Abreu would mean trading Hosmer and adding two LHB who can play some RF, at a lot more cost. If Abreu were secretly better than his numbers this could work, but the opposite is true; he's more than 20% less good as a hitter from the 7th inning on.
Xander, Senga, and Eovaldi project to $58M, and hometown discounts should trim that by $2M +/- $1M. That means that you need Nimmo to spend close to the limit. I do think that's one the the plans they're considering, especially as Nimmo has name value, and would be happy with that (if they trade for a RH DH / OF) ...
But my argument is actually only that they are still considering the elite starters, just as Bloom implied. You can remove the two premises you disagree with and it's still a strong argument. I might add that adding one of the elite trio would take a lot of pressure off of Sale, and that can't hurt, while at the same time challenging his ego in a healthy way.
I don't think it's likely, but neither is it impossible. Fair enough I'm probably nitpicking since I also believe they're still considering the elite starters. I'm just not sure on the spending, this is I think a plausible scenario: Xander/Correa: $30M Eovaldi/Senga: $15M Starting Pitcher 2 (Quintana/Taillon/Manaea/Kluber): $10M Bellinger/Haniger/Conforto/Kiermaier: $10M* side note here: Curious if you have looked at Haniger as the RH option, he seems to fit well as an OF/DH type, no leverage splits, pull hitter) Bullpen: $10M That would leave them with ~$5M room before the season, Refsnyder and the FA acquisition are the 3rd/4th OFs. Could also see them spending a little on a catcher like Vazquez or Zunino, eating from some of that pitching budget. I can completely buy them going for Verlander, a cheaper second starter and not spending much more on the bullpen/getting closer to the cap number, but I just think there are also other conceivable ways of spending the money that still lead to a strong team. That's before we get to trades where someone like Bryan Reynolds would be an amazing fit.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Nov 25, 2022 11:51:39 GMT -5
^^^^^ Love the comment above, that's pretty much my offseason. Depending on the price, I love the idea of re-signing both Eovaldi and Bogaerts, if the price is reasonable Bogey is probably my first choice. But I kind of love the ideal of 1 of (Quintana/Taillon/Manea/Walker/Kluber) + Senga and Correa netting two picks.
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Post by xdmo on Nov 25, 2022 14:52:02 GMT -5
I started with 2022 and worked backwards. I picked 3.7 WAR because both Framber Valdesz and Cristian Javier were 3.7, and they were both intimidating. After all the guys who were that good (and I should gave included Kershaw, Gonsolin, and May from 2020, prorated to 162 games), the next best guy is either Julio Urias's prorated 3.0 or Anibal Sanchez ('19 Nats) 2.8. The idea is to put a ballpark number on the quality of a #2 playoff starter that is so good that the other team has to include them in their story about how to win 4 games.
I just looked at all the losing WS teams and the same pattern holds. 2018 Dodgers had Kershaw and Buhler and a big dropoff to Ryu at 2.5. 2019 Astros had the awesome Verlander / Cole duo and nobody else at 1.8 or above. Phillies this year had Nola and Wheeler and then Suarez at 2.5. The '21 Astros were led by McCullers at 3.3, so it would be fair to use 3.5 WAR as the goal for your #2 starer.
But the fact remains that all 5 winners and 3 of the 5 losers of the last 5 WS had 2 or more guys with 3.7 WAR (or the COVID equivalent).
The scouting reports on Senga are iffy about being that good. I completely agree that Bello and Whitlock have the potential, and you can also hope that Eovaldi has a 2021-like season.
As far as spending all the available money, I cannot find a FA RHB that seems to me to be a good idea. You need a DH or LHB on the bench who can play the OF, as that unlocks Kiké's versatility. Signing Abreu would mean trading Hosmer and adding two LHB who can play some RF, at a lot more cost. If Abreu were secretly better than his numbers this could work, but the opposite is true; he's more than 20% less good as a hitter from the 7th inning on.
Xander, Senga, and Eovaldi project to $58M, and hometown discounts should trim that by $2M +/- $1M. That means that you need Nimmo to spend close to the limit. I do think that's one the the plans they're considering, especially as Nimmo has name value, and would be happy with that (if they trade for a RH DH / OF) ...
But my argument is actually only that they are still considering the elite starters, just as Bloom implied. You can remove the two premises you disagree with and it's still a strong argument. I might add that adding one of the elite trio would take a lot of pressure off of Sale, and that can't hurt, while at the same time challenging his ego in a healthy way.
I don't think it's likely, but neither is it impossible. Fair enough I'm probably nitpicking since I also believe they're still considering the elite starters. I'm just not sure on the spending, this is I think a plausible scenario: Xander/Correa: $30M Eovaldi/Senga: $15M Starting Pitcher 2 (Quintana/Taillon/Manaea/Kluber): $10M Bellinger/Haniger/Conforto/Kiermaier: $10M* side note here: Curious if you have looked at Haniger as the RH option, he seems to fit well as an OF/DH type, no leverage splits, pull hitter) Bullpen: $10M That would leave them with ~$5M room before the season, Refsnyder and the FA acquisition are the 3rd/4th OFs. Could also see them spending a little on a catcher like Vazquez or Zunino, eating from some of that pitching budget. I can completely buy them going for Verlander, a cheaper second starter and not spending much more on the bullpen/getting closer to the cap number, but I just think there are also other conceivable ways of spending the money that still lead to a strong team. That's before we get to trades where someone like Bryan Reynolds would be an amazing fit. I feel like unless you're giving Correa a ten year deal, you're probably going to have to raise the AAV by the 3 or 4 million. But the rest looks very sound. 8 million dollars only left for the bullpen after signing Rodriguez.
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Post by bosoxkc on Nov 25, 2022 15:30:06 GMT -5
FAs Taillon 4/60 Quintana 2/26 Jansen 2/26 Robertson 2/16 Abreu 2/40 Mancini 2/25 (OF/1B) Vazquez???
All in about $240MM 2023
Still think Pivetta and Good parts for 50FV SP(Waldichuk) Verdugo and Parts for Wiemer (MIL) or Valera (CLE)
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 25, 2022 18:08:40 GMT -5
FAs Taillon 4/60 Quintana 2/26 Jansen 2/26 Robertson 2/16 Abreu 2/40 Mancini 2/25 (OF/1B) Vazquez??? All in about $240MM 2023 Still think Pivetta and Good parts for 50FV SP(Waldichuk) Verdugo and Parts for Wiemer (MIL) or Valera (CLE) That's a very yuck offseason if you ask me. Taillon and quintana for those deals seem like bad moves. Mancini and abreu seems redundant. I know Mancini can play some OF but he's not particularly good out there. Don't like really any of those moves to be honest.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 2, 2022 13:36:14 GMT -5
Ronaldo Hernandez was DFA'ed and cleared waivers. Outrighted to AAA. Roster is at 39.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 2, 2022 15:13:31 GMT -5
Nice, I bet they were sweating that one. I thought he was gonna last the entire offseason on the 40.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Dec 7, 2022 16:03:23 GMT -5
Wonder what the counter moves for Martin Jansen and bogey are going to be?
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 7, 2022 16:25:07 GMT -5
Darwinzon sticks out to me as the next to go. I think he clears
They've been shopping Dalbec around, first team to offer a top 60 prospect might get him. Downs, Seabold and Duran might be in a similar boat
Ort is another one that might not be safe, but I can see them believing in him after he got up to 101 at the end of the year.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Dec 7, 2022 16:41:53 GMT -5
Darwinzon sticks out to me as the next to go. I think he clears They've been shopping Dalbec around, first team to offer a top 60 prospect might get him. Downs, Seabold and Duran might be in a similar boat Ort is another one that might not be safe, but I can see them believing in him after he got up to 101 at the end of the year. The best use of Bobby's trade value, to me, is including him in a larger deal for a Reynolds, Murphy, etc. Much more valuable to a smaller market team that can take the risk playing and developing him next year and see if they can figure something out, but he doesn't really care enough standalone value to fetch a good return in a 1-for-1 trade. Only issue with that is possible redundancy with Casas, but with platoon splits and the DH I don't see that as a huge deal.
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Post by orion09 on Dec 7, 2022 16:53:21 GMT -5
Darwinzon sticks out to me as the next to go. I think he clears They've been shopping Dalbec around, first team to offer a top 60 prospect might get him. Downs, Seabold and Duran might be in a similar boat Ort is another one that might not be safe, but I can see them believing in him after he got up to 101 at the end of the year. Top 60 in the league or top 60 on a team?
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,787
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Post by nomar on Dec 7, 2022 18:10:56 GMT -5
Darwinzon sticks out to me as the next to go. I think he clears They've been shopping Dalbec around, first team to offer a top 60 prospect might get him. Downs, Seabold and Duran might be in a similar boat Ort is another one that might not be safe, but I can see them believing in him after he got up to 101 at the end of the year. The best use of Bobby's trade value, to me, is including him in a larger deal for a Reynolds, Murphy, etc. Much more valuable to a smaller market team that can take the risk playing and developing him next year and see if they can figure something out, but he doesn't really care enough standalone value to fetch a good return in a 1-for-1 trade. Only issue with that is possible redundancy with Casas, but with platoon splits and the DH I don't see that as a huge deal. I agree. Value is obviously in the eye of the beholder, but Duran and Dalbec are both potentially steals for Oakland or Pittsburgh. They could become cheap controllable starters for either team and if they don’t, it’s not like they were expecting to win anyway. They won’t be major trade chips, but just because the Red Sox can’t risk giving them a role next year, doesn’t mean they’re worthless either.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Dec 7, 2022 21:04:09 GMT -5
At this point, 2 need to come off the roster to get to 40. (currently at 39, need to find room for our 3 acquisitions - so far).
Names I wouldn't miss terribly - Brasier, Taylor, Hernandez, Seabold, Ort
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 7, 2022 21:39:23 GMT -5
At this point, 2 need to come off the roster to get to 40. (currently at 39, need to find room for our 3 acquisitions - so far). Names I wouldn't miss terribly - Brasier, Taylor, Hernandez, Seabold, Ort I'm wondering whether Taylor is destined for the 60-day IL as soon as it becomes available. That would open up a spot heading into spring training and give the Red Sox more time to assess whether he can contribute. Typically the Red Sox have 1-2 guys who are clear early IL choices, but I don't see any others at the moment; and Taylor seems to be in a position where he would agree to some shenanigans. Chaim seems to like the flexibility of having the last 40-man spot open.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 8, 2022 11:05:07 GMT -5
The Chris Martin signing is now official. Roster back at 40.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Dec 8, 2022 11:13:28 GMT -5
The Chris Martin signing is now official. Roster back at 40. A few relevant songs: Shiver; Don't Panic; In My Place; Lost!; Every Tear Drop is a Waterfall; Let Somebody Go Much less relevant: A Sky Full of Stars; A Head Full of Dreams;
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Post by natesp4 on Dec 8, 2022 11:20:06 GMT -5
My prediction (and hope) is a Seabold DFA and a Dalbec trade.
Seabold's lack of a floor due to being a poor bullpen fit makes him my #1 DFA guy.
After that, it starts to hurt a little bit. Agree with previous poster that Ort seems unlikely due to flashing that late season 101. Probably Downs and Darwinzon come next for me, hopefully by then though enough FA have signed elsewhere to clog up 40-man rosters across the league.
Chaim is getting tons of hate today so I guess I'll give credit that at least the 40-man roster is in a spot where the backend guys hurt to lose these days...
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Dec 9, 2022 22:56:13 GMT -5
In my OOTP I generally trade the back end of my roster for top 100 prospects. I have to imagine the Dalbec and Duran for Sal Frelick trade will be announced tomorrow
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