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Evaluating the Front Office and Ownership
redsox04071318champs
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Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 24, 2022 11:27:58 GMT -5
How is it narrative spinning? When's the last time the Sox went after an elite type player. I know you'll give me Trevor Story, so in the offseasons of 2019-2020, 2020-2021, 2021-2022, 2022-2023, that's their big splurge. One splurge and while Story is a good player, I doubt he's much more than a Dansby Swanson type level player, which is to say a good regular who can be an occasional all-star, but hardly an elite player. Mookie, X, and Devers are elite players, among the very best at their positions, a higher level than Story, which reflects in the contracts they got or will get. The Red Sox were known for getting the top players. I'm not trying to downgrade Story - he did get a big contract, that has since been dwarfed by what's going on, but still - one player in all that time. Yoshida is a big contract, but looks small compared to others. Now, I'm not telling you that the Red Sox are smart or dumb to get into these contracts. Hell, I'm on record as being luke warm about these deals being doled out. That said, I harbor no illusions - if the Sox are to retain Devers, they need to get crazy, too, or they will lose him. But more than just that, I think the point about players looking at the Red Sox and seeing them as second tier as far as spending goes...it absolutely gets around. You heard Carlos Baerga's incredulous reaction. You think players don't know that Xander was lowballed and treated like a number rather than a franchise guy, which he certainly was. You think that topic didn't come up during the all-star game with other players wondering what the hell is going on. I want the Sox to be able to secure elite players. They will have to set aside a certain amount of inefficient payroll space - it's the cost of doing business. And frankly, I have zero concern about John Henry's wallet. He is obscenely wealthy and getting wealthier by the minute with all these deals he's making. I sometimes scratch my head at how fans worry so much about players making a lot but not about owners raking it in. As a fan I wish Henry was doing what Cohen is doing. I don't know if the Mets will win it all or not. I'm pretty damn sure they're going to win about 100 games and make the playoffs. That's more than I can say about the Sox who might snag a wild card spot or might very well finish last again. I do know that the Mets look a helluva lot more interesting to me, as do the Padres, as do the Phillies, than the Sox do. I look forward to seeing how well Yoshida's hitting translates. I will say this - if Devers does indeed leave, like I expect he will, it will make the message damn clear - the Sox are not about retaining or spending for elite talent. Second tier good players? Sure, they might do it now and then. But given what they're charging their fans to come to the game and the fact that the Sox have every capability of spending like crazy, but refuse to do so, it makes me question just how badly ownership wants to win. They want to win, but..... If I see it, I'm sure players do as well. They want to win and they want to get paid. Where the Sox are right now, I won't kill them for not giving out ridiculous contracts to other players - let them develop their farm - but it better be a damn good farm - I like what I'm seeing but I'm not going to pretend that it's the core that produced Mookie/X/Beni/JBJ/Devers core in a 5 year stretch. We'll see what Mayer/Bello/Casas/Bleis, etc amount to. I do like them. But in the mean time, they should have retained X and they should do what they need to do to secure Devers. While I'm at it, I'll always feel that they should have thrown 350 million or so to Mookie and stopped worrying about the damn tax as Mookie is the kind of player the Sox had never produced before and might never again in our lifetime - just about great in everything, but I won't open up that can of worms. Story (2017-2022) 20.1 fWAR, 3117 PA Devers (career; 2017-2022): 18.1 fWAR, 2958 PA I don't know every variable in all these WAR arguments so I don't wade too heavily into these things All I do know is I like Devers' bat a lot more than Story's. Hard stop. He'll only be 27 when he hits free agency. The knock against Devers is his lack of stellar glove work. I'll grant you that - you're comparing a middle infielder with a good glove, but who might not be able to play SS anymore to a middle of the order masher whose bat should be plenty sufficient to handle 1b or DH for years to come. I'll take Devers over Story. Whereas Story probably would have gotten 200 - 225 million in this market as a free agent, Devers should easily clear 300 million and will probably be closer to 350 million.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Dec 24, 2022 11:31:21 GMT -5
I don't think we know exactly where the front office and management are at this point. We do know that they are not willing to offer large, long term contracts to the top FA *at this point in time*. That last point is the critical one because until we can understand what their core approach is we cannot assess how well they are doing. My guess is that they believe that it was not possible to sustain a top team by spending over the top on Mookie, extending X (at near what the market provided him) or through the trade makret without stripping what was a fairly barren farm system given their position at DD's exit. I also think that they believe that the ascendancy of the TTO era is coming to a close and that the time to get back to more fundemental baseball with an emphasis on getting on base plus defense is returning. If that is the case then Casas and Yoshida are the tip of the spear that moves the team in that direction. Yorke (if he returns to form) could be another piece, while Rafaela will at least provide exceptional CF defense as the farm, hopefully begins to bear fruit in a more consistent manner which may, for the first time in forever, actually include pitching. If/when that develops it will be time for the Sox to play hard in the FA market to fill out the roster with whatever the minor league system does not supply them and then and only then can we truly judge what kind of job management has done. In the meantime, the Jansens and Turners may provide a "catch lightning in a bottle" type of bridge to the next great Sox team.
Or I could be completely out in left field and they all suck.
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Post by manfred on Dec 24, 2022 11:38:27 GMT -5
I don't think we know exactly where the front office and management are at this point. We do know that they are not willing to offer large, long term contracts to the top FA *at this point in time*. That last point is the critical one because until we can understand what their core approach is we cannot assess how well they are doing. My guess is that they believe that it was not possible to sustain a top team by spending over the top on Mookie, extending X (at near what the market provided him) or through the trade makret without stripping what was a fairly barren farm system given their position at DD's exit. I also think that they believe that the ascendancy of the TTO era is coming to a close and that the time to get back to more fundemental baseball with an emphasis on getting on base plus defense is returning. If that is the case then Casas and Yoshida are the tip of the spear that moves the team in that direction. Yorke (if he returns to form) could be another piece, while Rafaela will at least provide exceptional CF defense as the farm, hopefully begins to bear fruit in a more consistent manner which may, for the first time in forever, actually include pitching. If/when that develops it will be time for the Sox to play hard in the FA market to fill out the roster with whatever the minor league system does not supply them and then and only then can we truly judge what kind of job management has done. In the meantime, the Jansens and Turners may provide a "catch lightning in a bottle" type of bridge to the next great Sox team. Or I could be completely out in left field and they all suck. Bridge year!!! We are actually approaching bridge-half-decade.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 24, 2022 11:41:43 GMT -5
I don't think we know exactly where the front office and management are at this point. We do know that they are not willing to offer large, long term contracts to the top FA *at this point in time*. That last point is the critical one because until we can understand what their core approach is we cannot assess how well they are doing. My guess is that they believe that it was not possible to sustain a top team by spending over the top on Mookie, extending X (at near what the market provided him) or through the trade makret without stripping what was a fairly barren farm system given their position at DD's exit. I also think that they believe that the ascendancy of the TTO era is coming to a close and that the time to get back to more fundemental baseball with an emphasis on getting on base plus defense is returning. If that is the case then Casas and Yoshida are the tip of the spear that moves the team in that direction. Yorke (if he returns to form) could be another piece, while Rafaela will at least provide exceptional CF defense as the farm, hopefully begins to bear fruit in a more consistent manner which may, for the first time in forever, actually include pitching. If/when that develops it will be time for the Sox to play hard in the FA market to fill out the roster with whatever the minor league system does not supply them and then and only then can we truly judge what kind of job management has done. In the meantime, the Jansens and Turners may provide a "catch lightning in a bottle" type of bridge to the next great Sox team. Or I could be completely out in left field and they all suck. Bridge year!!! We are actually approaching bridge-half-decade. Is every year the team doesn’t make the World Series a bridge year? If so the vast majority of teams in baseball are in a longer drought/bridge era. If not 2021 wasn’t a bridge year.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 24, 2022 11:48:46 GMT -5
The empty seats in the stadium down the stretch don't lie. Also which team(s) are you saying fans resented for losing? The only one I can remember was the chicken and beer squad in 2011 and that team had plenty of stars: Pedroia, Ortiz, Youkilis, Ellsbury. The issue was of course the epic collapse and the team seemingly not taking the game seriously, not the fans failing to bond with a squad of bozos. I don't think fans resent any of the recent teams for losing; I haven't heard that and it makes no sense. Like, do we think they're not trying? I've just heard people mad at ownership and Bloom for not doing more to help the team. Well, that’s part of the team. If there is more venom aimed at the FO than enthusiasm for the team, it is bad. I think morale was low in 2020 when they sent out a string of loser pitchers. Losing is fine, but not trying is embarrassing. The Bobby V year was miserable, and I don’t think people were on-board. Then there was a stretch where losing wasn’t much of an issue. But there's a difference between having low morale as fans and resenting the team. The former is normal, but the later is treating the players' poor play as some sort of personal slight. I don't think anyone blames the 2020 players for not being good. I do think they tuned out because the product on the field was awful, though. If that 2020 team had miraculously gone on a run and made some noise in the playoffs, though, people would still have been watching. They would have been thrilled to see our David slay the league's mighty Goliaths. People would be buzzing about the incredible successes of Ryan Weber and Franchy Cordero. How are they so good?! Fans will bond with basically any team (barring a domestic abuser all star team, or something) that plays winning baseball. There is a lot of venom directed at the FO right now because it's the offseason and Bogaerts signed with the Padres like two weeks ago. Once the team has been built and the games start being played, the most important thing to people not named Shaughnessy is whether they are good.
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Post by manfred on Dec 24, 2022 11:49:21 GMT -5
Bridge year!!! We are actually approaching bridge-half-decade. Is every year the team doesn’t make the World Series a bridge year? If so the vast majority of teams in baseball are in a longer drought/bridge era. If not 2021 wasn’t a bridge year. I have been hearing that phrase since 2020 and never understood it. I can buy it if there are certain reinforcements a year away. But a team that spends its off season cycling mid-30s FAs on 1- or 2-year deals doesn’t seem to be building so much as floating around on a leaky innertube.
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Post by pappyman99 on Dec 24, 2022 11:50:26 GMT -5
A bit off topic maybe it’s another thread worthy but as far as WAR I find it advanced but very flawed and before I explain my thinking, I am someone who has been visiting fangraphs since essentially it’s beginning.
Okay my gripe with WAR. I understand positional value and comparisons to other players specifically at that position but what gets conflated is this.
All things being equal. A 2B hitting .300/.400 with 40 home runs is going to lead to the same offensive output as a DH with the same numbers. That’s to say the sum of the teams offensive output is no different.
Say we moved Devers to 2B and he gave the same numbers defensively/offensively. His WAR goes up but our record doesn’t change. Seems obvious but I feel like that gets lost in the fray… a lot
I understand if we moved story to 3b his war would have gone south the other way. But I sometimes find it silly that Devers would be MVP at 2b because his offense is way higher than the mean there even though nothing about his offensive output changed.
I understand I’m making an assumption about his 2b defense, but I’m hoping high level that I’m loosely am getting my point across about WAR’s imperfection (nothing is perfect)
Again I understand the value. And this is more a response to that story vs Devers WAR remark.
Random rant over
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Post by manfred on Dec 24, 2022 11:52:05 GMT -5
Well, that’s part of the team. If there is more venom aimed at the FO than enthusiasm for the team, it is bad. I think morale was low in 2020 when they sent out a string of loser pitchers. Losing is fine, but not trying is embarrassing. The Bobby V year was miserable, and I don’t think people were on-board. Then there was a stretch where losing wasn’t much of an issue. But there's a difference between having low morale as fans and resenting the team. The former is normal, but the later is treating the players' poor play as some sort of personal slight. I don't think anyone blames the 2020 players for not being good. I do think they tuned out because the product on the field was awful, though. If that 2020 team had miraculously gone on a run and made some noise in the playoffs, though, people would still have been watching. They would have been thrilled to see our David slay the league's mighty Goliaths. People would be buzzing about the incredible successes of Ryan Weber and Franchy Cordero. How are they so good?! Fans will bond with basically any team (barring a domestic abuser all star team, or something) that plays winning baseball. There is a lot of venom directed at the FO right now because it's the offseason and Bogaerts signed with the Padres like two weeks ago. Once the team has been built and the games start being played, the most important thing to people not named Shaughnessy is whether they are good. Look, if they are good, problem solved. But if they are not good, then Story is a bum for not being X. Verdugo is a bum for being all we got for Mookie. Sale is a bum for his extension etc etc. And a lot of that is really about FO(s), but you can’t boo them.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 24, 2022 11:53:41 GMT -5
Is every year the team doesn’t make the World Series a bridge year? If so the vast majority of teams in baseball are in a longer drought/bridge era. If not 2021 wasn’t a bridge year. I have been hearing that phrase since 2020 and never understood it. I can buy it if there are certain reinforcements a year away. But a team that spends its off season cycling mid-30s FAs on 1- or 2-year deals doesn’t seem to be building so much as floating around on a leaky innertube. I sort of agree but that’s also what has to happen until the team has an affordable core. Seems like, for the first time since 2018, there’s a chance that emerges this year. Let’s say they lock Devers up. You’re looking at Story, Devers, Yoshida, Whitlock, Casas, Bello as the pieces locked in for a while. If those latter guys play as we all hope they do then you can mix in another FA, get some more farm pieces emerging over the next few years, the picture looks pretty good and pretty consistent for the at least semi-medium term. Also everyone thought 2013 was a bridge year for those reasons you said, until it wasn’t.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 24, 2022 11:56:39 GMT -5
A bit off topic maybe itâs another thread worthy but as far as WAR I find it advanced but very flawed and before I explain my thinking, I am someone who has been visiting fangraphs since essentially itâs beginning. Okay my gripe with WAR. I understand positional value and comparisons to other players specifically at that position but what gets conflated is this. All things being equal. A 2B hitting .300/.400 with 40 home runs is going to lead to the same offensive output as a DH with the same numbers. Thatâs to say the sum of the teams offensive output is no different. Say we moved Devers to 2B and he gave the same numbers defensively/offensively. His WAR goes up but our record doesnât change. Seems obvious but I feel like that gets lost in the fray⦠a lot I understand if we moved story to 3b his war would have gone south the other way. But I sometimes find it silly that Devers would be MVP at 2b because his offense is way higher than the mean there even though nothing about his offensive output changed. I understand Iâm making an assumption about his 2b defense, but Iâm hoping high level that Iâm loosely am getting my point across about WARâs imperfection (nothing is perfect) Again I understand the value. And this is more a response to that story vs Devers WAR remark. Random rant over The idea with positional value is that Devers couldnât play 2B as well as he could third, at least in theory. Thatâs why those guys are more valuable, because they are harder to replace, because itâs harder to play defense there. Edit: I will say there are situations where I think this isnât a fair assessment. Iâve always thought utility guys who can capably play all over infield and outfield should get a bump, because isnât that much harder to replace? Like Kiké shouldnât lose value if he fills in second for a game because that is where the Red Sox need him most in that moment.
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Post by manfred on Dec 24, 2022 12:00:58 GMT -5
A bit off topic maybe it’s another thread worthy but as far as WAR I find it advanced but very flawed and before I explain my thinking, I am someone who has been visiting fangraphs since essentially it’s beginning. Okay my gripe with WAR. I understand positional value and comparisons to other players specifically at that position but what gets conflated is this. All things being equal. A 2B hitting .300/.400 with 40 home runs is going to lead to the same offensive output as a DH with the same numbers. That’s to say the sum of the teams offensive output is no different. Say we moved Devers to 2B and he gave the same numbers defensively/offensively. His WAR goes up but our record doesn’t change. Seems obvious but I feel like that gets lost in the fray… a lot I understand if we moved story to 3b his war would have gone south the other way. But I sometimes find it silly that Devers would be MVP at 2b because his offense is way higher than the mean there even though nothing about his offensive output changed. I understand I’m making an assumption about his 2b defense, but I’m hoping high level that I’m loosely am getting my point across about WAR’s imperfection (nothing is perfect) Again I understand the value. And this is more a response to that story vs Devers WAR remark. Random rant over The idea with positional value is that Devers couldn’t play 2B as well as he could third, at least in theory. That’s why those guys are more valuable, because they are harder to replace, because it’s harder to play defense there. But it is true that on balance his WAR could go up. He would be a negative defender, but his offense might jump (relatively) in a way that makes up for it. The larger point stands that WAR, being positionally relative, is faulty in cross-positional comparisons. At relatively low replacement positions, a guy with a higher WAR might be practically less valuable than a guy with a low WAR at positions with higher replacement value.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 24, 2022 12:04:16 GMT -5
Is every year the team doesn’t make the World Series a bridge year? If so the vast majority of teams in baseball are in a longer drought/bridge era. If not 2021 wasn’t a bridge year. I have been hearing that phrase since 2020 and never understood it. I can buy it if there are certain reinforcements a year away. But a team that spends its off season cycling mid-30s FAs on 1- or 2-year deals doesn’t seem to be building so much as floating around on a leaky innertube. There are reinforcements 0 years away. Casas and Bello are both top-4 prospects in the system, both in the 50-55 range, and they hit the majors more or less simultaneously. Rafaela, another top 5 guy, is less than a year away. Crawford also recently arrived, and Walter, Mata, and Murphy are all on the cusp. There is currently an exceptional amount of talent on the cusp of MLB, probably the most since 2014. What more are you looking for?
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 24, 2022 12:07:37 GMT -5
Story (2017-2022) 20.1 fWAR, 3117 PA Devers (career; 2017-2022): 18.1 fWAR, 2958 PA I don't know every variable in all these WAR arguments so I don't wade too heavily into these things All I do know is I like Devers' bat a lot more than Story's. Hard stop. He'll only be 27 when he hits free agency. The knock against Devers is his lack of stellar glove work. I'll grant you that - you're comparing a middle infielder with a good glove, but who might not be able to play SS anymore to a middle of the order masher whose bat should be plenty sufficient to handle 1b or DH for years to come. I'll take Devers over Story. Whereas Story probably would have gotten 200 - 225 million in this market as a free agent, Devers should easily clear 300 million and will probably be closer to 350 million. I agree Devers is worth more than Story, but not because a good bat is necessarily more valuable than a good glove. The biggest factor is that Devers is younger. If Devers were a FA after his age 28 season like Story and he was looking like a 1B/DH for most of his deal, his value would be closer to half of what people report he's looking for now. Look at Matt Olson for a top 1B comp - last year, before his age 28 season, he got 8/168 plus a 9th year team option. His bat has been roughly Devers tier (career 130 wRC+) and he is a good defensive 1B, which Devers probably wouldn't be. A full time DH would theoretically get even less.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 24, 2022 12:09:37 GMT -5
Fangraphs makes the same positional adjustment for 2B and 3B, so this premise about Devers moving to 2B isn't even correct.
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Post by manfred on Dec 24, 2022 12:17:10 GMT -5
I have been hearing that phrase since 2020 and never understood it. I can buy it if there are certain reinforcements a year away. But a team that spends its off season cycling mid-30s FAs on 1- or 2-year deals doesn’t seem to be building so much as floating around on a leaky innertube. There are reinforcements 0 years away. Casas and Bello are both top-4 prospects in the system, both in the 50-55 range, and they hit the majors more or less simultaneously. Rafaela, another top 5 guy, is less than a year away. Crawford also recently arrived, and Walter, Mata, and Murphy are all on the cusp. There is currently an exceptional amount of talent on the cusp of MLB, probably the most since 2014. What more are you looking for? First, I don’t care much about ratings. We’ve seen Lars Anderson, Michael Chavis, etc come and go. Second, I have very low expectations for Crawford, Walter, and Murphy. I mean, I think they could be good bullpen arms, but that is not “next core” level. Of that group you name, basically Casas and Bello are potential core material — stars you build around. We’ll see. But it is not Pedey/Papi or Betts/Bogey/JDM by any means. I’d say Devers is the only guy approaching that level on this roster.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 24, 2022 12:27:51 GMT -5
There are reinforcements 0 years away. Casas and Bello are both top-4 prospects in the system, both in the 50-55 range, and they hit the majors more or less simultaneously. Rafaela, another top 5 guy, is less than a year away. Crawford also recently arrived, and Walter, Mata, and Murphy are all on the cusp. There is currently an exceptional amount of talent on the cusp of MLB, probably the most since 2014. What more are you looking for? First, I don’t care much about ratings. We’ve seen Lars Anderson, Michael Chavis, etc come and go. Second, I have very low expectations for Crawford, Walter, and Murphy. I mean, I think they could be good bullpen arms, but that is not “next core” level. Of that group you name, basically Casas and Bello are potential core material — stars you build around. We’ll see. But it is not Pedey/Papi or Betts/Bogey/JDM by any means. I’d say Devers is the only guy approaching that level on this roster. And the standard by which JDM is a core guy but Yoshida/Story are not potential core guys is...?
If you're waiting to have *guaranteed* stars one year away, that's just never going to happen. Betts/Bogaerts/JBJ weren't guaranteed to become that either. So by this standard a "core" can only be defined as such in retrospect. You're making an impossible demand if you need it to be guaranteed in advance.
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Post by manfred on Dec 24, 2022 12:37:13 GMT -5
First, I don’t care much about ratings. We’ve seen Lars Anderson, Michael Chavis, etc come and go. Second, I have very low expectations for Crawford, Walter, and Murphy. I mean, I think they could be good bullpen arms, but that is not “next core” level. Of that group you name, basically Casas and Bello are potential core material — stars you build around. We’ll see. But it is not Pedey/Papi or Betts/Bogey/JDM by any means. I’d say Devers is the only guy approaching that level on this roster. And the standard by which JDM is a core guy but Yoshida/Story are not potential core guys is...?
If you're waiting to have *guaranteed* stars one year away, that's just never going to happen. Betts/Bogaerts/JBJ weren't guaranteed to become that either. So by this standard a "core" can only be defined as such in retrospect. You're making an impossible demand if you need it to be guaranteed in advance.
Because JDM in his prime was an offensive machine? He was briefly a legit replacement for Manny or Papi? JDM’s disappointing 2021 would be a decent year in Story’s career. It is interesting about Story. Yes, he was hurt last year. But when healthy, his OPS+ was 102. And people say, hey, adjustment. But that is what it was in 2021, too! I’m not sure why folks assume he is going to be much above average offensively. He might be, but it is hardly a given.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 24, 2022 12:52:58 GMT -5
And the standard by which JDM is a core guy but Yoshida/Story are not potential core guys is...?
If you're waiting to have *guaranteed* stars one year away, that's just never going to happen. Betts/Bogaerts/JBJ weren't guaranteed to become that either. So by this standard a "core" can only be defined as such in retrospect. You're making an impossible demand if you need it to be guaranteed in advance.
Because JDM in his prime was an offensive machine? He was briefly a legit replacement for Manny or Papi? JDM’s disappointing 2021 would be a decent year in Story’s career. It is interesting about Story. Yes, he was hurt last year. But when healthy, his OPS+ was 102. And people say, hey, adjustment. But that is what it was in 2021, too! I’m not sure why folks assume he is going to be much above average offensively. He might be, but it is hardly a given. So full circle back to you not buying the positional or defensive value of WAR. Even put the positional adjustment aside and you must acknowledge that a run saved is as valuable as a run created no?
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Post by manfred on Dec 24, 2022 13:13:59 GMT -5
Because JDM in his prime was an offensive machine? He was briefly a legit replacement for Manny or Papi? JDM’s disappointing 2021 would be a decent year in Story’s career. It is interesting about Story. Yes, he was hurt last year. But when healthy, his OPS+ was 102. And people say, hey, adjustment. But that is what it was in 2021, too! I’m not sure why folks assume he is going to be much above average offensively. He might be, but it is hardly a given. So full circle back to you not buying the positional or defensive value of WAR. Even put the positional adjustment aside and you must acknowledge that a run saved is as valuable as a run created no? 1:1, yes. I think few defensive plays literally save runs. So it is hard to say how many actual runs a guy saves over the course of a season. I also wonder if Story will remain an elite defensive SS if moved back there. But the point is, a glove-first middle infielder is not the Sun around which you find pieces to orbit. Look at Story’s projections for the year: 2.5-3 WAR. That’s… fine. But the question is why did I call JDM a core guy and not Story. Well, when the Sox were last great, he was a monster.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 24, 2022 13:17:51 GMT -5
I don't know every variable in all these WAR arguments so I don't wade too heavily into these things All I do know is I like Devers' bat a lot more than Story's. Hard stop. He'll only be 27 when he hits free agency. The knock against Devers is his lack of stellar glove work. I'll grant you that - you're comparing a middle infielder with a good glove, but who might not be able to play SS anymore to a middle of the order masher whose bat should be plenty sufficient to handle 1b or DH for years to come. I'll take Devers over Story. Whereas Story probably would have gotten 200 - 225 million in this market as a free agent, Devers should easily clear 300 million and will probably be closer to 350 million. I agree Devers is worth more than Story, but not because a good bat is necessarily more valuable than a good glove. The biggest factor is that Devers is younger. If Devers were a FA after his age 28 season like Story and he was looking like a 1B/DH for most of his deal, his value would be closer to half of what people report he's looking for now. Look at Matt Olson for a top 1B comp - last year, before his age 28 season, he got 8/168 plus a 9th year team option. His bat has been roughly Devers tier (career 130 wRC+) and he is a good defensive 1B, which Devers probably wouldn't be. A full time DH would theoretically get even less. I think Devers is better than Olson. While Olson is more of a power hitter I just think Devers has the better hit tool and I think it will allow him to have a longer career in my opinion. Olson is a 1b, but unless I'm mistaken he doesnt have the skills to play 3b. Devers can be error prone at times and can be maddening defensively, but i dont see Devers as a guy who doesn't have the tools to physically play 3b. So I regard him a level higher than Olson, particularly over the long term, provided that he watches his conditioning.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Dec 24, 2022 13:42:11 GMT -5
I don't think we know exactly where the front office and management are at this point. We do know that they are not willing to offer large, long term contracts to the top FA *at this point in time*. That last point is the critical one because until we can understand what their core approach is we cannot assess how well they are doing. My guess is that they believe that it was not possible to sustain a top team by spending over the top on Mookie, extending X (at near what the market provided him) or through the trade makret without stripping what was a fairly barren farm system given their position at DD's exit. I also think that they believe that the ascendancy of the TTO era is coming to a close and that the time to get back to more fundemental baseball with an emphasis on getting on base plus defense is returning. If that is the case then Casas and Yoshida are the tip of the spear that moves the team in that direction. Yorke (if he returns to form) could be another piece, while Rafaela will at least provide exceptional CF defense as the farm, hopefully begins to bear fruit in a more consistent manner which may, for the first time in forever, actually include pitching. If/when that develops it will be time for the Sox to play hard in the FA market to fill out the roster with whatever the minor league system does not supply them and then and only then can we truly judge what kind of job management has done. In the meantime, the Jansens and Turners may provide a "catch lightning in a bottle" type of bridge to the next great Sox team. Or I could be completely out in left field and they all suck. Bridge year!!! We are actually approaching bridge-half-decade. I was born in 1947, went to my first game in 1952 (thanks Grandpa!) and then waited 20 years for them to finally reach the Series with the miracle 1967 team - lost Game 7. Then 8 more years for the 1975 Series with the greatest game (Game 6) ever - lost Game 7. Then waited 11 more years for 1986 - greatest choke ever (thanks Calvin) lost Game 7. Then waited 18 more years for 2004 greatest comeback in baseball history plus no need for a Game 7. Since then 3 more Series wins. And now a budding farm and a future worth dreaming on even if it's 2 or 3 years away. That would be 6 or 7 years total since their last triumph so I really can't take your bitching seriously.
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Post by manfred on Dec 24, 2022 13:45:39 GMT -5
Bridge year!!! We are actually approaching bridge-half-decade. I was born in 1947, went to my first game in 1952 (thanks Grandpa!) and then waited 20 years for them to finally reach the Series with the miracle 1967 team - lost Game 7. Then 8 more years for the 1975 Series with the greatest game (Game 6) ever - lost Game 7. Then waited 11 more years for 1986 - greatest choke ever (thanks Calvin) lost Game 7. Then waited 18 more years for 2004 greatest comeback in baseball history plus no need for a Game 7. Since then 3 more Series wins. And now a budding farm and a future worth dreaming on even if it's 2 or 3 years away. That would be 6 or 7 years total since their last triumph so I really can't take your bitching seriously. I applaud your patience. I am not “bitching” about not winning every year. But the phrase “bridge year” is silly. It’s a fig leaf. Every team but one every season could say “bridge year!” It should be retired.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 24, 2022 14:02:59 GMT -5
So full circle back to you not buying the positional or defensive value of WAR. Even put the positional adjustment aside and you must acknowledge that a run saved is as valuable as a run created no? 1:1, yes. I think few defensive plays literally save runs. So it is hard to say how many actual runs a guy saves over the course of a season. I also wonder if Story will remain an elite defensive SS if moved back there. But the point is, a glove-first middle infielder is not the Sun around which you find pieces to orbit. Look at Story’s projections for the year: 2.5-3 WAR. That’s… fine. But the question is why did I call JDM a core guy and not Story. Well, when the Sox were last great, he was a monster. On the first part I actually think it kinda relates to the leverage discussion we had earlier. If Story makes a play at second that a normal infielder doesn’t and gets an out, even if there’s no one on, that play may have prevented a run. A hit changes the run expectancy by some X amount so in theory preventing that hit does the same. I do agree with you that a 3 win guy is not an equal core piece to an ‘18 JD. I do think he has potential to be substantially more than that, but probably not likely. But a 6 win year from JD wasn’t likely in ‘18 either.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 24, 2022 14:22:20 GMT -5
Bridge year!!! We are actually approaching bridge-half-decade. Is every year the team doesn’t make the World Series a bridge year? If so the vast majority of teams in baseball are in a longer drought/bridge era. If not 2021 wasn’t a bridge year. No, it was an outlier.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 24, 2022 14:31:03 GMT -5
I don’t think that’s true. There are years when they lose and the fans lose *with* them. We feel their disappointment. But I only remember a few years when they lost and people resented them for it. The empty seats in the stadium down the stretch don't lie. Also which team(s) are you saying fans resented for losing? The only one I can remember was the chicken and beer squad in 2011 and that team had plenty of stars: Pedroia, Ortiz, Youkilis, Ellsbury. The issue was of course the epic collapse and the team seemingly not taking the game seriously, not the fans failing to bond with a squad of bozos. I don't think fans resent any of the recent teams for losing; I haven't heard that and it makes no sense. Like, do we think they're not trying? I've just heard people mad at ownership and Bloom for not doing more to help the team. The 2011 team didn't lose (they won 90 games) but I think it was the third year in a row the team didn't make the playoff, even though this team looked headed for first place in the AL East before an epic collapse. And yes, "Chicken and Beer" bad PR made it much worse in the fans eyes. But to the point of winning and losing, the team never had a losing season under Theo Epstein or Dave Dombrowski. Ben Cherington and Chaim Bloom have faced different dynamics and their records have been more uneven.
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