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Evaluating the Front Office and Ownership
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Post by manfred on Dec 23, 2022 16:22:09 GMT -5
In the quest for ultimate dollar efficiency the human factor doesn't get factored in. Players may or may not study analytics but there is a grapevine there and they talk and they get a sense of who will pay and who will nickel and dime you and they see the loyalty shown toward their own players and these things matter to them. I think Lowell and some of the others have a valid point, something that a fan of the team might not have the distance to see. This whole line of criticism makes no sense. If a player is reticent to sign with Boston because they're too cheap (despite being one of the top-spending teams every single year?) then all Boston has to do is offer them a bunch of money and the concern is resolved. If on the other hand Boston is unwilling to offer that money, then the issue has nothing to do with players' perceptions anyway.
In any case, I am willing to spend an extra $50 million of John Henry's money on Devers just to put an end to this weird narrative-spinning.
But your solution may be the problem. If Boston and team X offer the same, there is reason to take team X. To prove they’ll spend, Boston then must OVERspend. I’m not saying this is fact, but your dismissal doesn’t work out.
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Post by bigpapiortiz on Dec 23, 2022 16:32:13 GMT -5
This whole line of criticism makes no sense. If a player is reticent to sign with Boston because they're too cheap (despite being one of the top-spending teams every single year?) then all Boston has to do is offer them a bunch of money and the concern is resolved. If on the other hand Boston is unwilling to offer that money, then the issue has nothing to do with players' perceptions anyway.
In any case, I am willing to spend an extra $50 million of John Henry's money on Devers just to put an end to this weird narrative-spinning.
But your solution may be the problem. If Boston and team X offer the same, there is reason to take team X. To prove they’ll spend, Boston then must OVERspend. I’m not saying this is fact, but your dismissal doesn’t work out. The Texas Rangers have been doing this to terrible results. Give me the Houston Astros approach 10 times out of 10. They keep being too “cheap” as well.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 23, 2022 21:07:56 GMT -5
In the quest for ultimate dollar efficiency the human factor doesn't get factored in. Players may or may not study analytics but there is a grapevine there and they talk and they get a sense of who will pay and who will nickel and dime you and they see the loyalty shown toward their own players and these things matter to them. I think Lowell and some of the others have a valid point, something that a fan of the team might not have the distance to see. This whole line of criticism makes no sense. If a player is reticent to sign with Boston because they're too cheap (despite being one of the top-spending teams every single year?) then all Boston has to do is offer them a bunch of money and the concern is resolved. If on the other hand Boston is unwilling to offer that money, then the issue has nothing to do with players' perceptions anyway. In any case, I am willing to spend an extra $50 million of John Henry's money on Devers just to put an end to this weird narrative-spinning.
How is it narrative spinning? When's the last time the Sox went after an elite type player. I know you'll give me Trevor Story, so in the offseasons of 2019-2020, 2020-2021, 2021-2022, 2022-2023, that's their big splurge. One splurge and while Story is a good player, I doubt he's much more than a Dansby Swanson type level player, which is to say a good regular who can be an occasional all-star, but hardly an elite player. Mookie, X, and Devers are elite players, among the very best at their positions, a higher level than Story, which reflects in the contracts they got or will get. The Red Sox were known for getting the top players. I'm not trying to downgrade Story - he did get a big contract, that has since been dwarfed by what's going on, but still - one player in all that time. Yoshida is a big contract, but looks small compared to others. Now, I'm not telling you that the Red Sox are smart or dumb to get into these contracts. Hell, I'm on record as being luke warm about these deals being doled out. That said, I harbor no illusions - if the Sox are to retain Devers, they need to get crazy, too, or they will lose him. But more than just that, I think the point about players looking at the Red Sox and seeing them as second tier as far as spending goes...it absolutely gets around. You heard Carlos Baerga's incredulous reaction. You think players don't know that Xander was lowballed and treated like a number rather than a franchise guy, which he certainly was. You think that topic didn't come up during the all-star game with other players wondering what the hell is going on. I want the Sox to be able to secure elite players. They will have to set aside a certain amount of inefficient payroll space - it's the cost of doing business. And frankly, I have zero concern about John Henry's wallet. He is obscenely wealthy and getting wealthier by the minute with all these deals he's making. I sometimes scratch my head at how fans worry so much about players making a lot but not about owners raking it in. As a fan I wish Henry was doing what Cohen is doing. I don't know if the Mets will win it all or not. I'm pretty damn sure they're going to win about 100 games and make the playoffs. That's more than I can say about the Sox who might snag a wild card spot or might very well finish last again. I do know that the Mets look a helluva lot more interesting to me, as do the Padres, as do the Phillies, than the Sox do. I look forward to seeing how well Yoshida's hitting translates. I will say this - if Devers does indeed leave, like I expect he will, it will make the message damn clear - the Sox are not about retaining or spending for elite talent. Second tier good players? Sure, they might do it now and then. But given what they're charging their fans to come to the game and the fact that the Sox have every capability of spending like crazy, but refuse to do so, it makes me question just how badly ownership wants to win. They want to win, but..... If I see it, I'm sure players do as well. They want to win and they want to get paid. Where the Sox are right now, I won't kill them for not giving out ridiculous contracts to other players - let them develop their farm - but it better be a damn good farm - I like what I'm seeing but I'm not going to pretend that it's the core that produced Mookie/X/Beni/JBJ/Devers core in a 5 year stretch. We'll see what Mayer/Bello/Casas/Bleis, etc amount to. I do like them. But in the mean time, they should have retained X and they should do what they need to do to secure Devers. While I'm at it, I'll always feel that they should have thrown 350 million or so to Mookie and stopped worrying about the damn tax as Mookie is the kind of player the Sox had never produced before and might never again in our lifetime - just about great in everything, but I won't open up that can of worms.
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Post by manfred on Dec 23, 2022 21:12:44 GMT -5
I keep thinking:
People here got sick of me being mad about Mookie. Fine. I get that.
Now we have X leave. Am I mad? Sure, but so are a lot of people.
Next up, Devers.
Here’s my thought: people can say all they want about money or WAR, but this team is really on the precipice of massive backlash. It doesn’t matter if it fair or not. This is a service industry, and at some point the customer is right (even if objectively wrong).
If this season doesn’t go right — and early — things will get so, so ugly around this team.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 23, 2022 21:21:46 GMT -5
Every year they don't win is ugly and every year they win things are fine
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Post by manfred on Dec 23, 2022 21:30:59 GMT -5
Every year they don't win is ugly and every year they win things are fine I don’t think that’s true. There are years when they lose and the fans lose *with* them. We feel their disappointment. But I only remember a few years when they lost and people resented them for it.
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Post by keninten on Dec 23, 2022 22:04:38 GMT -5
This whole line of criticism makes no sense. If a player is reticent to sign with Boston because they're too cheap (despite being one of the top-spending teams every single year?) then all Boston has to do is offer them a bunch of money and the concern is resolved. If on the other hand Boston is unwilling to offer that money, then the issue has nothing to do with players' perceptions anyway. In any case, I am willing to spend an extra $50 million of John Henry's money on Devers just to put an end to this weird narrative-spinning.
How is it narrative spinning? When's the last time the Sox went after an elite type player. I know you'll give me Trevor Story, so in the offseasons of 2019-2020, 2020-2021, 2021-2022, 2022-2023, that's their big splurge. One splurge and while Story is a good player, I doubt he's much more than a Dansby Swanson type level player, which is to say a good regular who can be an occasional all-star, but hardly an elite player. Mookie, X, and Devers are elite players, among the very best at their positions, a higher level than Story, which reflects in the contracts they got or will get. The Red Sox were known for getting the top players. I'm not trying to downgrade Story - he did get a big contract, that has since been dwarfed by what's going on, but still - one player in all that time. Yoshida is a big contract, but looks small compared to others. Now, I'm telling you that the Red Sox are smart or dumb to get into these contracts. Hell, I'm on record as being luke warm about these deals being doled out. That said, I harbor no illusions - if the Sox are to retain Devers, they need to get crazy, too, or they will lose him. But more than just that, I think the point about players looking at the Red Sox and seeing them as second tier as far as spending goes...it absolutely gets around. You heard Carlos Baerga's incredulous reaction. You think players don't know that Xander was lowballed and treated like a number rather than a franchise guy, which he certainly was. You think that topic didn't come up during the all-star game with other players wondering what the hell is going on. I want the Sox to be able to secure elite players. They will have to set aside a certain amount of inefficient payroll space - it's the cost of doing business. And frankly, I have zero concern about John Henry's wallet. He is obscenely wealthy and getting wealthier by the minute with all these deals he's making. I sometimes scratch my head at how fans worry so much about players making a lot but not about owners raking it in. As a fan I wish Henry was doing what Cohen is doing. I don't know if the Mets will win it all or not. I'm pretty damn sure they're going to win about 100 games and make the playoffs. That's more than I can say about the Sox who might snag a wild card spot or might very well finish last again. I do know that the Mets look a helluva lot more interesting to me, as do the Padres, as do the Phillies, than the Sox do. I look forward to seeing how well Yoshida's hitting translates. I will say this - if Devers does indeed leave, like I expect he will, it will make the message damn clear - the Sox are not about retaining or spending for elite talent. Second tier good players? Sure, they might do it now and then. But given what they're charging their fans to come to the game and the fact that the Sox have every capability of spending like crazy, but refuse to do so, it makes me question just how badly ownership wants to win. They want to win, but..... If I see it, I'm sure players do as well. They want to win and they want to get paid. Where the Sox are right now, I won't kill them for not giving out ridiculous contracts to other players - let them develop their farm - but it better be a damn good farm - I like what I'm seeing but I'm not going to pretend that it's the core that produced Mookie/X/Beni/JBJ/Devers core in a 5 year stretch. We'll see what Mayer/Bello/Casas/Bleis, etc amount to. I do like them. But in the mean time, they should have retained X and they should do what they need to do to secure Devers. While I'm at it, I'll always feel that they should have thrown 350 million or so to Mookie and stopped worrying about the damn tax as Mookie is the kind of player the Sox had never produced before and might never again in our lifetime - just about great in everything, but I won't open up that can of worms. I don`t think of X or Devers as elite players. Elite hitters for sure. Seems to me a few years ago everyone agreed X was not a good defensive player. I expected X to be gone quite a few years ago. Hoping they trade Devers because I don`t see him as even an average fielder in a few years. These other teams giving out these long contracts are going to be in our favor in just a little while. They`ll have a hard time competing for the top FAs. Most won`t agree with me but I think you hope I will be right
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 23, 2022 22:16:23 GMT -5
Every year they don't win is ugly and every year they win things are fine I don’t think that’s true. There are years when they lose and the dans lose *with* them. We feel their disappointment. But I only remember a few years when they lost and people resented them for it. Yeah, that's definitely not true. Not to say that it can't be ugly when they lose (see Chicken and Beer) but there's occasions where we know that the team has zero chance of winning anything like in 2016 and 2017 and we just enjoy anything that we see out of them. This year might be enjoyable once they move Devers, Kiké and anyone else that could help a contender. Who knows? Ownership not picking a path is ridiculous at this point. Its obvious that the only path to winning for this particular franchise if they don't want to pay for dead years in a contract is to build from the farm and sign them long term immediately before they get called up. Remember how young and loaded the 2018 Sox were? Massive missed opportunities.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 24, 2022 0:55:12 GMT -5
How is it narrative spinning? When's the last time the Sox went after an elite type player. I know you'll give me Trevor Story, so in the offseasons of 2019-2020, 2020-2021, 2021-2022, 2022-2023, that's their big splurge. One splurge and while Story is a good player, I doubt he's much more than a Dansby Swanson type level player, which is to say a good regular who can be an occasional all-star, but hardly an elite player. Mookie, X, and Devers are elite players, among the very best at their positions, a higher level than Story, which reflects in the contracts they got or will get. The Red Sox were known for getting the top players. I'm not trying to downgrade Story - he did get a big contract, that has since been dwarfed by what's going on, but still - one player in all that time. Yoshida is a big contract, but looks small compared to others. Now, I'm telling you that the Red Sox are smart or dumb to get into these contracts. Hell, I'm on record as being luke warm about these deals being doled out. That said, I harbor no illusions - if the Sox are to retain Devers, they need to get crazy, too, or they will lose him. But more than just that, I think the point about players looking at the Red Sox and seeing them as second tier as far as spending goes...it absolutely gets around. You heard Carlos Baerga's incredulous reaction. You think players don't know that Xander was lowballed and treated like a number rather than a franchise guy, which he certainly was. You think that topic didn't come up during the all-star game with other players wondering what the hell is going on. I want the Sox to be able to secure elite players. They will have to set aside a certain amount of inefficient payroll space - it's the cost of doing business. And frankly, I have zero concern about John Henry's wallet. He is obscenely wealthy and getting wealthier by the minute with all these deals he's making. I sometimes scratch my head at how fans worry so much about players making a lot but not about owners raking it in. As a fan I wish Henry was doing what Cohen is doing. I don't know if the Mets will win it all or not. I'm pretty damn sure they're going to win about 100 games and make the playoffs. That's more than I can say about the Sox who might snag a wild card spot or might very well finish last again. I do know that the Mets look a helluva lot more interesting to me, as do the Padres, as do the Phillies, than the Sox do. I look forward to seeing how well Yoshida's hitting translates. I will say this - if Devers does indeed leave, like I expect he will, it will make the message damn clear - the Sox are not about retaining or spending for elite talent. Second tier good players? Sure, they might do it now and then. But given what they're charging their fans to come to the game and the fact that the Sox have every capability of spending like crazy, but refuse to do so, it makes me question just how badly ownership wants to win. They want to win, but..... If I see it, I'm sure players do as well. They want to win and they want to get paid. Where the Sox are right now, I won't kill them for not giving out ridiculous contracts to other players - let them develop their farm - but it better be a damn good farm - I like what I'm seeing but I'm not going to pretend that it's the core that produced Mookie/X/Beni/JBJ/Devers core in a 5 year stretch. We'll see what Mayer/Bello/Casas/Bleis, etc amount to. I do like them. But in the mean time, they should have retained X and they should do what they need to do to secure Devers. While I'm at it, I'll always feel that they should have thrown 350 million or so to Mookie and stopped worrying about the damn tax as Mookie is the kind of player the Sox had never produced before and might never again in our lifetime - just about great in everything, but I won't open up that can of worms. I don`t think of X or Devers as elite players. Elite hitters for sure. Seems to me a few years ago everyone agreed X was not a good defensive player. I expected X to be gone quite a few years ago. Hoping they trade Devers because I don`t see him as even an average fielder in a few years. These other teams giving out these long contracts are going to be in our favor in just a little while. They`ll have a hard time competing for the top FAs. Most won`t agree with me but I think you hope I will be right What choice do I have? Any and all free agents are a bad bet to be great for the duration of the contract, so in that case you'd never sign a free agent to a long term deal because by definition you are investing in a declining market. The problem is that you'll never have a premier player for long and you'll have to trade him before he walks away and you get nothing for him so you're left playing in the second tier and even those contracts can run 5 - 7 years and cost 100 - 150 million and because they're a lesser player you run an even bigger risk of decline. No, X and Devers are not superstar defensive players. X is a serviceable sure handed non-rangy SS who will be at 3b before long and Devers is a skilled but erratic defensive 3b who eventually winds up a 1b/DH. That said, I don't see why Bogaerts as a 3b wouldn't be making his trek toward 2500 - 3000 career hits. His hit tool is pretty damn good. Meanwhile, Devers is a 30 - 35 HR guy who is probably going to wind up hitting at least 400 homers in his career and he sports a good hit tool. Look at the Red Sox farm system. They'll be hard pressed to replace those two hitters. Mayer should eventually replace X, but it'll be a 2 to 3 year gap and the drop off from X to whoever will be big, even if it's Story given that we have no idea how his throwing is going to be. I have no idea who replaces Devers. Good luck with that. And no, they have yet to find a player with the skills Mookie Betts has. So as crazy as these contracts are, sometimes you have to bite the bullet for players that are worth it. I think out of that spectacular once in a lifetime team, Mookie, X, and Devers were the keepers. Everybody else was expendable. Obviously you can't re-up everybody but those 3 players were the guys worth hanging onto and building around. They'll all be gone soon and all that's left are average to mediocre players. Hard to win a Series that way.
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Post by keninten on Dec 24, 2022 2:13:47 GMT -5
I don`t think of X or Devers as elite players. Elite hitters for sure. Seems to me a few years ago everyone agreed X was not a good defensive player. I expected X to be gone quite a few years ago. Hoping they trade Devers because I don`t see him as even an average fielder in a few years. These other teams giving out these long contracts are going to be in our favor in just a little while. They`ll have a hard time competing for the top FAs. Most won`t agree with me but I think you hope I will be right What choice do I have? Any and all free agents are a bad bet to be great for the duration of the contract, so in that case you'd never sign a free agent to a long term deal because by definition you are investing in a declining market. The problem is that you'll never have a premier player for long and you'll have to trade him before he walks away and you get nothing for him so you're left playing in the second tier and even those contracts can run 5 - 7 years and cost 100 - 150 million and because they're a lesser player you run an even bigger risk of decline. No, X and Devers are not superstar defensive players. X is a serviceable sure handed non-rangy SS who will be at 3b before long and Devers is a skilled but erratic defensive 3b who eventually winds up a 1b/DH. That said, I don't see why Bogaerts as a 3b wouldn't be making his trek toward 2500 - 3000 career hits. His hit tool is pretty damn good. Meanwhile, Devers is a 30 - 35 HR guy who is probably going to wind up hitting at least 400 homers in his career and he sports a good hit tool. Look at the Red Sox farm system. They'll be hard pressed to replace those two hitters. Mayer should eventually replace X, but it'll be a 2 to 3 year gap and the drop off from X to whoever will be big, even if it's Story given that we have no idea how his throwing is going to be. I have no idea who replaces Devers. Good luck with that. And no, they have yet to find a player with the skills Mookie Betts has. So as crazy as these contracts are, sometimes you have to bite the bullet for players that are worth it. I think out of that spectacular once in a lifetime team, Mookie, X, and Devers were the keepers. Everybody else was expendable. Obviously you can't re-up everybody but those 3 players were the guys worth hanging onto and building around. They'll all be gone soon and all that's left are average to mediocre players. Hard to win a Series that way. The only disagreement I have with most of the board is that I really do think they are setting up for the future. Letting X go for nothing has me completely stump. After the farm starts graduating some players that would be the time to sign top FAs. I just see no reason to do it now. The foundation has to be set first. I don`t think they have ever done a complete reset. Everything always seems to be halfass. My faith in Bloom is in the draft. We`ll just have to see how some of these guys turn out. Last years was the best yet in my by no means an expert opinion.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 24, 2022 8:57:59 GMT -5
This whole line of criticism makes no sense. If a player is reticent to sign with Boston because they're too cheap (despite being one of the top-spending teams every single year?) then all Boston has to do is offer them a bunch of money and the concern is resolved. If on the other hand Boston is unwilling to offer that money, then the issue has nothing to do with players' perceptions anyway. In any case, I am willing to spend an extra $50 million of John Henry's money on Devers just to put an end to this weird narrative-spinning.
How is it narrative spinning? When's the last time the Sox went after an elite type player. I know you'll give me Trevor Story, so in the offseasons of 2019-2020, 2020-2021, 2021-2022, 2022-2023, that's their big splurge. One splurge and while Story is a good player, I doubt he's much more than a Dansby Swanson type level player, which is to say a good regular who can be an occasional all-star, but hardly an elite player. I don't want to get into an endless back and forth about this, but the reason they didn't sign major free agents in 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 is that they had already signed/extended elite players on big contracts - Price and Sale and Pedroia. They didn't have the luxury tax space to sign more of them. The first chance they got, after the 2021 season, they signed the fifth biggest contract on the market. Then after 2022, with Price just coming fully off the books, they clearly wanted to sign Bogaerts to what would have been about the 5th biggest contract, but the Padres blew them out of the water with a contract that literally not one person here thinks they should have matched. Even so, they still managed to sign the 10th biggest contract of the offseason, with Yoshida.
I'm not denying that they don't take the Dombrowski/Preller/Cohen approach of saying no price is too high for getting the guys they want. If that's the complaint, then I'll grant the point - and I am very glad they don't do that. (Except with Devers; they should be very unreasonable re: Devers. If for no other reason for the sake of the mental health of Red Sox Nation.)
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Post by Guidas on Dec 24, 2022 9:37:14 GMT -5
And now there's this: But this offseason, agents who have been negotiating with the Sox say they’ve been factoring the [Massachusetts] millionaire’s tax into the calculus when contemplating offers. The Sox, said multiple agents, are now lumped in with teams in California and New York in needing to outbid clubs in more favorable tax environments (particularly Texas and Florida, where there’s no state income tax) to present offers of equal value.
“Every good agent is going to factor that in,” said one agent. “It’s a big deal. It’s potentially millions of dollars in the deal. It absolutely factors into our decision-making process.”
New market inefficiency. First Blue State owner to move their team to Nashville, Jacksonville or San Antonio gets a free stadium and absurd state tax benefits.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,121
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Post by jimoh on Dec 24, 2022 9:37:15 GMT -5
Two problems: Yoshida played in a tougher league than Suzuki, so his stats are more impressive, at least on offense. Last year Hosmer had a great first month and then hit like Jonathan Arauz the rest of the way. The Pacific league is tougher for pitchers not hitters since they utilize the DH. The utilization of the DH in half of whole professional league is a competitive disadvantage for teams not hitters. If anything, a smart pitcher would give in less to a NL like team's best hitter since there is a lesser threat down the order, and Suzuki in theory would have had fewer PA & RBI opportunities with a pitcher hitting in the 9 hole. Suzuki also had to play the field which most assume does take some away from your batting line. Yoshida has benefited from the DH by not having to play the field for 2/3 of the year, and by also having better complimentary hitters around him. DHing is not going to be as readily available next year. I am more impressed by Suzuki's batting line then Yoshida's. As for Hosmer, he not a world better, but an average or slightly above avg LHH at league minimum should have a place on a roster. There are plenty of players that provide most of their value in a month or two period throughout the season. Hosmer afforded you depth bat in the event of Devers, Yoshida, or Verdugo got injured. Still you should have got a return for Hosmer. you may know both than me, but I thought I had tread in a detailed comparison of Suzuki and Yoshida that’s Yoshida’s stats in the pacific League were more impressive than Suzuki’s in the Central. And I do not think Hosmer is an average hitter any more given how he hit after the first month.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 24, 2022 9:44:50 GMT -5
And now there's this: But this offseason, agents who have been negotiating with the Sox say they’ve been factoring the [Massachusetts] millionaire’s tax into the calculus when contemplating offers. The Sox, said multiple agents, are now lumped in with teams in California and New York in needing to outbid clubs in more favorable tax environments (particularly Texas and Florida, where there’s no state income tax) to present offers of equal value.
“Every good agent is going to factor that in,” said one agent. “It’s a big deal. It’s potentially millions of dollars in the deal. It absolutely factors into our decision-making process.”
New market inefficiency. First Blue State owner to move their team to Nashville, Jacksonville or San Antonio gets a free stadium and absurd state tax benefits.Yes, this is why the Marlins and Rays sign all the top free agents while the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, and Padres are left watching from the sidelines.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,121
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Post by jimoh on Dec 24, 2022 9:44:55 GMT -5
The Pacific league is tougher for pitchers not hitters since they utilize the DH. The utilization of the DH in half of whole professional league is a competitive disadvantage for teams not hitters. If anything, a smart pitcher would give in less to a NL like team's best hitter since there is a lesser threat down the order, and Suzuki in theory would have had fewer PA & RBI opportunities with a pitcher hitting in the 9 hole. Suzuki also had to play the field which most assume does take some away from your batting line. Yoshida has benefited from the DH by not having to play the field for 2/3 of the year, and by also having better complimentary hitters around him. DHing is not going to be as readily available next year. I am more impressed by Suzuki's batting line then Yoshida's. As for Hosmer, he not a world better, but an average or slightly above avg LHH at league minimum should have a place on a roster. There are plenty of players that provide most of their value in a month or two period throughout the season. Hosmer afforded you depth bat in the event of Devers, Yoshida, or Verdugo got injured. Still you should have got a return for Hosmer. you may know both than me, but I thought I had tread in a detailed comparison of Suzuki and Yoshida that’s Yoshida’s stats in the pacific League were more impressive than Suzuki’s in the Central. And I do not think Hosmer is an average hitter any more given how he hit after the first month. Some arguments that the Pacific League has been harder to hit in: ” A year ago[2017], Alex Ramirez said …that the PL pitchers–particularly the relievers–throw harder, and that makes it harder for the CL hitters to adjust. This appears to be the case at the moment.[2018] According to analysis site Delta Graphs PL fastballs are 0.6 KPH faster on average than the CL heaters…” “ The data does not prove PL pitching staffs and defenses are superior but suggests that may be the case, but it also indicates that PL teams are better at hitting, playing defense and have superior speed in the outfield.” jballallen.com/why-the-pacific-league-is-stronger/
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Post by Guidas on Dec 24, 2022 9:48:26 GMT -5
Also, looks like Speier's been reading my posts. I will have to talk to him about this While the Red Sox had contacted free-agent outfielder Andrew Benintendi at the beginning of free agency, the team never showed a willingness to go anywhere near the five-year, $75 million deal he ultimately signed with the White Sox.
Some evaluators believe new Red Sox outfielder Masataka Yoshida — whom the Sox spent $105.375 million to acquire (a five-year, $90 million deal and $15.375 million posting fee) — has an offensive profile similar to that of Benintendi.
Obviously, the effort to project player performance is inexact, and the Sox felt tremendous conviction in the idea that Yoshida can be a special offensive talent. But it will be interesting to contrast the performance of the two players over their next five years.On a serious note, I hope the Front Office's desire not to admit they erred in trading Benintendi didn't create some sort of confirmation bias in their scouting of Yoshida over selecting Benintendi for LF. Btw, [1] The Wall Street Journal[/i] had an extensive piece in players who may benefit from the new shift rules and Benintendi was projected to be among the top 5-6 players who should see a jump in offense.
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 24, 2022 10:15:37 GMT -5
Also, looks like Speier's been reading my posts. I will have to talk to him about this While the Red Sox had contacted free-agent outfielder Andrew Benintendi at the beginning of free agency, the team never showed a willingness to go anywhere near the five-year, $75 million deal he ultimately signed with the White Sox.
Some evaluators believe new Red Sox outfielder Masataka Yoshida — whom the Sox spent $105.375 million to acquire (a five-year, $90 million deal and $15.375 million posting fee) — has an offensive profile similar to that of Benintendi.
Obviously, the effort to project player performance is inexact, and the Sox felt tremendous conviction in the idea that Yoshida can be a special offensive talent. But it will be interesting to contrast the performance of the two players over their next five years.On a serious note, I hope the Front Office's desire not to admit they erred in trading Benintendi didn't create some sort of confirmation bias in their scouting of Yoshida over selecting Benintendi for LF. Btw, [1] The Wall Street Journal[/i] had an extensive piece in players who may benefit from the new shift rules and Benintendi was projected to be among the top 5-6 players who should see a jump in offense. [/quote] It did not. Look at the Athletic article I linked in the Yoshi thread. They’ve been heavily scouting him and are highly convinced in his talent and that it will translate to MLB. We shall see if they are right.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 24, 2022 10:31:47 GMT -5
And now there's this: But this offseason, agents who have been negotiating with the Sox say they’ve been factoring the [Massachusetts] millionaire’s tax into the calculus when contemplating offers. The Sox, said multiple agents, are now lumped in with teams in California and New York in needing to outbid clubs in more favorable tax environments (particularly Texas and Florida, where there’s no state income tax) to present offers of equal value.
“Every good agent is going to factor that in,” said one agent. “It’s a big deal. It’s potentially millions of dollars in the deal. It absolutely factors into our decision-making process.”
New market inefficiency. First Blue State owner to move their team to Nashville, Jacksonville or San Antonio gets a free stadium and absurd state tax benefits.Yes, this is why the Marlins and Rays sign all the top free agents while the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, and Padres are left watching from the sidelines. Marlins and Rays have cheap owners who run low budgets and likely pocket the "Competitive Balance" annual payments. And you can't argue that, if the ownership groups who run the teams you listed moved to tax-free states, they would have an additional carrot to entice free agents. Seriously, someone send up a Bat Signal to Marc Cuban - whom MLB owners feared because "He'll spend recklessly!" - to buy a team and move it to one of these states. With the onset of Steve Cohen Marc Cuban will look like John Henry (of course, without all that effusive personality Mr. Henry is always displaying).
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Post by foreverred9 on Dec 24, 2022 10:38:46 GMT -5
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Post by pappyman99 on Dec 24, 2022 10:44:44 GMT -5
Every year they don't win is ugly and every year they win things are fine I don’t think that’s true. There are years when they lose and the fans lose *with* them. We feel their disappointment. But I only remember a few years when they lost and people resented them for it. I resented them for it last season. Because there was no hindsight, it was very clear that our bullpen was going to suck going into opening day 2022. It was also very clear that we didn’t have a 1B and we’re in dire need of a RH power bat That was clear to everyone except our FO I mean we had injuries, but in the world where we kept renfroe, make a cheap trade for hosmer last off-season, and sign Jansen last year for 1 year and leave Whitlock in the bullpen…. The season probably goes very differently. World Series… no, wild card yeah The bogaerts offer last year made you resent them instantly Bloom is done if we get off to a rough start, that is 100% sure. It’s bad when there are already reports of other FO members questioning his decision making abilities or lack there of
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Post by manfred on Dec 24, 2022 10:49:53 GMT -5
I don’t think that’s true. There are years when they lose and the fans lose *with* them. We feel their disappointment. But I only remember a few years when they lost and people resented them for it. I resented them for it last season. Because there was no hindsight, it was very clear that our bullpen was going to suck going into opening day 2022. It was also very clear that we didn’t have a 1B and we’re in dire need of a RH power bat That was clear to everyone except our FO I mean we had injuries, but in the world where we kept renfroe, make a cheap trade for hosmer last off-season, and sign Jansen last year for 1 year and leave Whitlock in the bullpen…. The season probably goes very differently. World Series… no, wild card yeah The bogaerts offer last year made you resent them instantly Bloom is done if we get off to a rough start, that is 100% sure. It’s bad when there are already reports of other FO members questioning his decision making abilities or lack there of This is part of my point. I suspect you could pull a quote from “a member of the FO” in any organization in sports. But when things are going well, there are other stories. It doesn’t matter if it is fair or not… the narrative is growing, and it is hard to turn it back. It won’t take much for it to go past a tipping point where knives are drawn and every story is about this mistake or that failure.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 24, 2022 11:06:31 GMT -5
This whole line of criticism makes no sense. If a player is reticent to sign with Boston because they're too cheap (despite being one of the top-spending teams every single year?) then all Boston has to do is offer them a bunch of money and the concern is resolved. If on the other hand Boston is unwilling to offer that money, then the issue has nothing to do with players' perceptions anyway. In any case, I am willing to spend an extra $50 million of John Henry's money on Devers just to put an end to this weird narrative-spinning.
How is it narrative spinning? When's the last time the Sox went after an elite type player. I know you'll give me Trevor Story, so in the offseasons of 2019-2020, 2020-2021, 2021-2022, 2022-2023, that's their big splurge. One splurge and while Story is a good player, I doubt he's much more than a Dansby Swanson type level player, which is to say a good regular who can be an occasional all-star, but hardly an elite player. Mookie, X, and Devers are elite players, among the very best at their positions, a higher level than Story, which reflects in the contracts they got or will get. The Red Sox were known for getting the top players. I'm not trying to downgrade Story - he did get a big contract, that has since been dwarfed by what's going on, but still - one player in all that time. Yoshida is a big contract, but looks small compared to others. Now, I'm not telling you that the Red Sox are smart or dumb to get into these contracts. Hell, I'm on record as being luke warm about these deals being doled out. That said, I harbor no illusions - if the Sox are to retain Devers, they need to get crazy, too, or they will lose him. But more than just that, I think the point about players looking at the Red Sox and seeing them as second tier as far as spending goes...it absolutely gets around. You heard Carlos Baerga's incredulous reaction. You think players don't know that Xander was lowballed and treated like a number rather than a franchise guy, which he certainly was. You think that topic didn't come up during the all-star game with other players wondering what the hell is going on. I want the Sox to be able to secure elite players. They will have to set aside a certain amount of inefficient payroll space - it's the cost of doing business. And frankly, I have zero concern about John Henry's wallet. He is obscenely wealthy and getting wealthier by the minute with all these deals he's making. I sometimes scratch my head at how fans worry so much about players making a lot but not about owners raking it in. As a fan I wish Henry was doing what Cohen is doing. I don't know if the Mets will win it all or not. I'm pretty damn sure they're going to win about 100 games and make the playoffs. That's more than I can say about the Sox who might snag a wild card spot or might very well finish last again. I do know that the Mets look a helluva lot more interesting to me, as do the Padres, as do the Phillies, than the Sox do. I look forward to seeing how well Yoshida's hitting translates. I will say this - if Devers does indeed leave, like I expect he will, it will make the message damn clear - the Sox are not about retaining or spending for elite talent. Second tier good players? Sure, they might do it now and then. But given what they're charging their fans to come to the game and the fact that the Sox have every capability of spending like crazy, but refuse to do so, it makes me question just how badly ownership wants to win. They want to win, but..... If I see it, I'm sure players do as well. They want to win and they want to get paid. Where the Sox are right now, I won't kill them for not giving out ridiculous contracts to other players - let them develop their farm - but it better be a damn good farm - I like what I'm seeing but I'm not going to pretend that it's the core that produced Mookie/X/Beni/JBJ/Devers core in a 5 year stretch. We'll see what Mayer/Bello/Casas/Bleis, etc amount to. I do like them. But in the mean time, they should have retained X and they should do what they need to do to secure Devers. While I'm at it, I'll always feel that they should have thrown 350 million or so to Mookie and stopped worrying about the damn tax as Mookie is the kind of player the Sox had never produced before and might never again in our lifetime - just about great in everything, but I won't open up that can of worms. Story (2017-2022) 20.1 fWAR, 3117 PA Devers (career; 2017-2022): 18.1 fWAR, 2958 PA
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Post by pappyman99 on Dec 24, 2022 11:07:09 GMT -5
I resented them for it last season. Because there was no hindsight, it was very clear that our bullpen was going to suck going into opening day 2022. It was also very clear that we didn’t have a 1B and we’re in dire need of a RH power bat That was clear to everyone except our FO I mean we had injuries, but in the world where we kept renfroe, make a cheap trade for hosmer last off-season, and sign Jansen last year for 1 year and leave Whitlock in the bullpen…. The season probably goes very differently. World Series… no, wild card yeah The bogaerts offer last year made you resent them instantly Bloom is done if we get off to a rough start, that is 100% sure. It’s bad when there are already reports of other FO members questioning his decision making abilities or lack there of This is part of my point. I suspect you could pull a quote from “a member of the FO” in any organization in sports. But when things are going well, there are other stories. It doesn’t matter if it is fair or not… the narrative is growing, and it is hard to turn it back. It won’t take much for it to go past a tipping point where knives are drawn and every story is about this mistake or that failure. You are very right in that if Devers goes they will lose a lot of tan attention quickly. As a fan it starts becoming well what’s the point of developing these guys. Especially Devers, middle of the order power bat in which 2023 will be his age 26 season! If you aren’t going to extend someone like that than who are you going to extend? A Devers extension changes everything. Why? Well then you start selling yourself on damn maybe 2023 isn’t quite the year but we would be looking at 2024 saying Devers Mayer Casas Could be our 2,3, and 4 hitters. Or 3,4, and 5 hitters. That outlook hits very different I think what frustrate me with some on here is that they think the complaining is about not wanting to have a farm. An amazing farm is ideal and awesome to have, but you need to extend at least some of your own and take some risk in FA Astros with the Altuve extension and the high risk contract they gave Verlander comes to mind. Even then we have more money and a market than the Astros. Our ideal approach is be spending in the top 6 in terms of payroll with a Dodgers like approach. Basically keep spending right up to the luxury tax limit with a good farm. If we operate like the Rays with a larger budget that will just be bad for us
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 24, 2022 11:17:05 GMT -5
Every year they don't win is ugly and every year they win things are fine I don’t think that’s true. There are years when they lose and the fans lose *with* them. We feel their disappointment. But I only remember a few years when they lost and people resented them for it. The empty seats in the stadium down the stretch don't lie. Also which team(s) are you saying fans resented for losing? The only one I can remember was the chicken and beer squad in 2011 and that team had plenty of stars: Pedroia, Ortiz, Youkilis, Ellsbury. The issue was of course the epic collapse and the team seemingly not taking the game seriously, not the fans failing to bond with a squad of bozos. I don't think fans resent any of the recent teams for losing; I haven't heard that and it makes no sense. Like, do we think they're not trying? I've just heard people mad at ownership and Bloom for not doing more to help the team.
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Post by manfred on Dec 24, 2022 11:25:59 GMT -5
I don’t think that’s true. There are years when they lose and the fans lose *with* them. We feel their disappointment. But I only remember a few years when they lost and people resented them for it. The empty seats in the stadium down the stretch don't lie. Also which team(s) are you saying fans resented for losing? The only one I can remember was the chicken and beer squad in 2011 and that team had plenty of stars: Pedroia, Ortiz, Youkilis, Ellsbury. The issue was of course the epic collapse and the team seemingly not taking the game seriously, not the fans failing to bond with a squad of bozos. I don't think fans resent any of the recent teams for losing; I haven't heard that and it makes no sense. Like, do we think they're not trying? I've just heard people mad at ownership and Bloom for not doing more to help the team. Well, that’s part of the team. If there is more venom aimed at the FO than enthusiasm for the team, it is bad. I think morale was low in 2020 when they sent out a string of loser pitchers. Losing is fine, but not trying is embarrassing. The Bobby V year was miserable, and I don’t think people were on-board. Then there was a stretch where losing wasn’t much of an issue.
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