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Evaluating the Front Office and Ownership
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 27, 2022 17:20:59 GMT -5
Could you stop accusing folks of being dishonest or dumb for assessing and valuing the Sox's playoff chances differently than you did? It makes it hard to have an actual discussion. I don't necessarily agree that the majority of fans thought the season was doomed at the deadline, nor do I think that the opinion of the fanbase should necessarily have much influence on the front office. They didn't have the assets for a full-blown sell-off to actually net sufficient value to justify tossing away a potential playoff run. It's one thing to trade Vazquez for prospects when you can replace his production with McGuire, but you're probably not replacing Bogaerts at the deadline. Even if a World Series title is unlikely, playoff appearances have significant value - financially, developmentally, and culturally. An exciting Wild Card game could make fans for life, in addition to millions in immediate revenue, and help young players take the next step on the big stage. I’m accusing people of letting their fan bias (we all have it) get in the way of an objective assessment.
Facts are at the deadline, we knew Sale was out basically for the season. We knew that we had been getting slaughtered by the AL East. We knew Trevor Story was injured, and we knew we had gone like 2-8 going into the trade deadline. Finally we knew we were 3 games back of an ADDED wild card spot, and probably what like 5-6 games back of what a usual WC spot had been the last decade or so? All facts so far right? Now before opening day started. We already knew our bullpen sucked, we knew our outfield was in bad shape offensively, and we knew 1B was a huge question mark. Again all facts so far. So pretty much at the deadline the only counter argument I see to not selling is based on hope.
I actually think the most frustrating part for people is not that people believe we shouldn’t have sold at the deadline, but then also defending the moves bloom made instead of selling…. There is a huge disconnect there. If you think we should not have sold at the deadline AND you think bloom did well at the deadline then yeah I’m pretty much going to think you (not you specifically) are a Bloom fanboy.
Dude stop it.. you are just confirming what seamus said and accusing posters here of being dishonest or dumb for assessing and valuing the Sox's playoff chances differently than you did? It makes it hard to have an actual discussion.
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Post by pappyman99 on Dec 27, 2022 17:33:36 GMT -5
I’m accusing people of letting their fan bias (we all have it) get in the way of an objective assessment.
Facts are at the deadline, we knew Sale was out basically for the season. We knew that we had been getting slaughtered by the AL East. We knew Trevor Story was injured, and we knew we had gone like 2-8 going into the trade deadline. Finally we knew we were 3 games back of an ADDED wild card spot, and probably what like 5-6 games back of what a usual WC spot had been the last decade or so? All facts so far right? Now before opening day started. We already knew our bullpen sucked, we knew our outfield was in bad shape offensively, and we knew 1B was a huge question mark. Again all facts so far. So pretty much at the deadline the only counter argument I see to not selling is based on hope.
I actually think the most frustrating part for people is not that people believe we shouldn’t have sold at the deadline, but then also defending the moves bloom made instead of selling…. There is a huge disconnect there. If you think we should not have sold at the deadline AND you think bloom did well at the deadline then yeah I’m pretty much going to think you (not you specifically) are a Bloom fanboy.
Dude stop it.. you are just confirming what seamus said and accusing posters here of being dishonest or dumb for assessing and valuing the Sox's playoff chances differently than you did? It makes it hard to have an actual discussion. Actually no, you are accusing me of something / borderline putting words in my mouth. I would like to see counter arguments to what I’ve actually argued in the above post other than you didn’t like the tone of the post. To be concise, everything I laid out. What’s makes you think we should’ve been buyers and why do you think Blooms moves were good if you believe so
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 27, 2022 17:36:24 GMT -5
Could you stop accusing folks of being dishonest or dumb for assessing and valuing the Sox's playoff chances differently than you did? It makes it hard to have an actual discussion. I don't necessarily agree that the majority of fans thought the season was doomed at the deadline, nor do I think that the opinion of the fanbase should necessarily have much influence on the front office. They didn't have the assets for a full-blown sell-off to actually net sufficient value to justify tossing away a potential playoff run. It's one thing to trade Vazquez for prospects when you can replace his production with McGuire, but you're probably not replacing Bogaerts at the deadline. Even if a World Series title is unlikely, playoff appearances have significant value - financially, developmentally, and culturally. An exciting Wild Card game could make fans for life, in addition to millions in immediate revenue, and help young players take the next step on the big stage. I’m accusing people of letting their fan bias (we all have it) get in the way of an objective assessment. Facts are at the deadline, we knew Sale was out basically for the season. We knew that we had been getting slaughtered by the AL East. We knew Trevor Story was injured, and we knew we had gone like 2-8 going into the trade deadline. Finally we knew we were 3 games back of an ADDED wild card spot, and probably what like 5-6 games back of what a usual WC spot had been the last decade or so? All facts so far right? Now before opening day started. We already knew our bullpen sucked, we knew our outfield was in bad shape offensively, and we knew 1B was a huge question mark. Again all facts so far. So pretty much at the deadline the only counter argument I see to not selling is based on hope. I actually think the most frustrating part for people is not that people believe we shouldn’t have sold at the deadline, but then also defending the moves bloom made instead of selling…. There is a huge disconnect there. If you think we should not have sold at the deadline AND you think bloom did well at the deadline then yeah I’m pretty much going to think you (not you specifically) are a Bloom fanboy. Your last line makes no sense. If you think we shouldn't have sold it doesn't mean you think the team should've bought aggressively. The team had a strategy and executed it, why is it absurd for some people to agree with the strategy they (and many other FOs around baseball) took? This is my last comment on this because people keep making this point and you seem allergic to all nuance.
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,845
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Post by shagworthy on Dec 27, 2022 17:42:41 GMT -5
McGuire career wRC+: 85 Vazquez career wRC+: 84
McGuire career fWAR/500 PAs: 2.9
Vazquez career fWAR/500 PAs: 2.3
McGuire 2021-22 fWAR: 3.0 in 491 PAs
Vazquez 2021-22 fWAR: 2.0 in 924 PAs
McGuire age: 27 Vazquez age: 32
It's really not that McGuire just had a better month. I've always liked Vazquez, but I think it's just objectively wrong to see the exchange of Vazquez for McGuire as a downgrade. At the very least that judgment requires some explanation.
We’ll see. This is his, what, fourth team? Always an afterthought in trades? As you may know, I am inherently suspicious of guys who are multi-time trade pieces at relatively low value. It assumes multiple FOs missed the obvious. Now, that happens! But I take a prove it stance. I’ll be interested to see how he does in a full season. I always acknowledge I could be wrong. I am with you. Sandy Leon caught lightning in a bottle and never hit again. McGuire could likely do the same thing. I will believe the hype when I see it sustained.
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Post by pappyman99 on Dec 27, 2022 17:47:18 GMT -5
I’m accusing people of letting their fan bias (we all have it) get in the way of an objective assessment. Facts are at the deadline, we knew Sale was out basically for the season. We knew that we had been getting slaughtered by the AL East. We knew Trevor Story was injured, and we knew we had gone like 2-8 going into the trade deadline. Finally we knew we were 3 games back of an ADDED wild card spot, and probably what like 5-6 games back of what a usual WC spot had been the last decade or so? All facts so far right? Now before opening day started. We already knew our bullpen sucked, we knew our outfield was in bad shape offensively, and we knew 1B was a huge question mark. Again all facts so far. So pretty much at the deadline the only counter argument I see to not selling is based on hope. I actually think the most frustrating part for people is not that people believe we shouldn’t have sold at the deadline, but then also defending the moves bloom made instead of selling…. There is a huge disconnect there. If you think we should not have sold at the deadline AND you think bloom did well at the deadline then yeah I’m pretty much going to think you (not you specifically) are a Bloom fanboy. Your last line makes no sense. If you think we shouldn't have sold it doesn't mean you think the team should've bought aggressively. The team had a strategy and executed it, why is it absurd for some people to agree with the strategy they (and many other FOs around baseball) took? This is my last comment on this because people keep making this point and you seem allergic to all nuance. I want to know why and hear the arguments for it. None of which the last 2 posts or this did. Saying they had a plan and executed is very vague and saying you agree with it isn’t an argument. Why did you agree with it at the time? What at the time made you feel it was the right thing to do. What at the time made you think we could have been a playoff team. What about the moves made (Pham, hosmer, McGuire) made you think they were good?
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Post by e on Dec 27, 2022 18:58:19 GMT -5
Your last line makes no sense. If you think we shouldn't have sold it doesn't mean you think the team should've bought aggressively. The team had a strategy and executed it, why is it absurd for some people to agree with the strategy they (and many other FOs around baseball) took? This is my last comment on this because people keep making this point and you seem allergic to all nuance. I want to know why and hear the arguments for it. None of which the last 2 posts or this did. Saying they had a plan and executed is very vague and saying you agree with it isn’t an argument. Why did you agree with it at the time? What at the time made you feel it was the right thing to do. What at the time made you think we could have been a playoff team. What about the moves made (Pham, hosmer, McGuire) made you think they were good? On August 2nd the Red Sox had a 33.1 percent chance of making the playoffs. This has been brought up multiple times by many posters, and just as how you spoke about all your reasons for believing they weren't making the playoffs, this argument is just as valid. You can disagree with the 33.1 percent reasoning, just as others disagree with your reasons for believing there was no chance of making the playoffs. Don't approach this discussion acting like you are the only one who has presented reasoning, or else this will become less productive. Many posters have said their plan was to buy and sell at the deadline. The Red Sox wanted to get their current team better while improving their farm system. This plan has positives and negatives. A positive is the team is not putting all their eggs in one basket (teardown or buy), and can theoretically improve their future, while also improving their present. The negative is it will not make a team substantially better or worse. It is more marginal improvements or subtractions. Reports coming out from reporters and Bloom himself indicated this was their plan. And whether or not you disagree with this plan, you cannot pretend the front office did not execute this plan or "half-assed it". They sold off Vazquez for two prospects who are now on the 40-man, traded Diekman for McGuire and PTBNL, and trade for Pham for next to nothing, along with getting Hosmer and two lesser prospects for Groome. They added to their farm system: Groome out with Valdez, Abreu, Ferguson, and Rosier is a system improvement. They also improved in the outfield with Pham and first base with Hosmer(was not hard to do considering how much of a dumpster fire that position was). They also improved for the rest of 2022 at catcher with McGuire, who was statistically much better than Vazquez after the deadline. From my view point the front office did not believe Story would be out for too long, Eovaldi was going to be back at full health, Wacha was coming back in August, Paxton could also be back in late August, and Sale could be back sometime in September. They probably though of them as "deadline additions" in a way. They believed their rotation would be stronger, their defense would shore up, and their acquisitions would make an already great offense better. Was it the right decision to buy and sell at the deadline? In hindsight no, but I won't fault the front office for making the decision to buy and sell when there was a reasonable argument for them still making the playoffs. I'm going to assume we'll just have to agree to disagree on the trade deadline approach, but I hope you can see that there were viable reasons at the time to believe this team could have gotten the third Wild card spot, just as there were viable reasons to believe they could not make the playoffs. My final comment is referring to other's arguments as "dumb", saying they aren't being honest with themselves, and assuming people who liked the deadline moves are "Bloom fanboys" is counterproductive.
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briam
Veteran
Posts: 1,180
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Post by briam on Dec 27, 2022 19:06:18 GMT -5
With Eovaldi heading to Texas it continues to highlight how horrendous they handled the trade deadline. There were ways to get under the tax that didn’t involve waving the white flag or blowing up the roster. It’s just awful asset management, those little mistakes continue to add up.
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Post by pappyman99 on Dec 27, 2022 19:25:19 GMT -5
I want to know why and hear the arguments for it. None of which the last 2 posts or this did. Saying they had a plan and executed is very vague and saying you agree with it isn’t an argument. Why did you agree with it at the time? What at the time made you feel it was the right thing to do. What at the time made you think we could have been a playoff team. What about the moves made (Pham, hosmer, McGuire) made you think they were good? On August 2nd the Red Sox had a 33.1 percent chance of making the playoffs. This has been brought up multiple times by many posters, and just as how you spoke about all your reasons for believing they weren't making the playoffs, this argument is just as valid. You can disagree with the 33.1 percent reasoning, just as others disagree with your reasons for believing there was no chance of making the playoffs. Don't approach this discussion acting like you are the only one who has presented reasoning, or else this will become less productive. Many posters have said their plan was to buy and sell at the deadline. The Red Sox wanted to get their current team better while improving their farm system. This plan has positives and negatives. A positive is the team is not putting all their eggs in one basket (teardown or buy), and can theoretically improve their future, while also improving their present. The negative is it will not make a team substantially better or worse. It is more marginal improvements or subtractions. Reports coming out from reporters and Bloom himself indicated this was their plan. And whether or not you disagree with this plan, you cannot pretend the front office did not execute this plan or "half-assed it". They sold off Vazquez for two prospects who are now on the 40-man, traded Diekman for McGuire and PTBNL, and trade for Pham for next to nothing, along with getting Hosmer and two lesser prospects for Groome. They added to their farm system: Groome out with Valdez, Abreu, Ferguson, and Rosier is a system improvement. They also improved in the outfield with Pham and first base with Hosmer(was not hard to do considering how much of a dumpster fire that position was). They also improved for the rest of 2022 at catcher with McGuire, who was statistically much better than Vazquez after the deadline. From my view point the front office did not believe Story would be out for too long, Eovaldi was going to be back at full health, Wacha was coming back in August, Paxton could also be back in late August, and Sale could be back sometime in September. They probably though of them as "deadline additions" in a way. They believed their rotation would be stronger, their defense would shore up, and their acquisitions would make an already great offense better. Was it the right decision to buy and sell at the deadline? In hindsight no, but I won't fault the front office for making the decision to buy and sell when there was a reasonable argument for them still making the playoffs. I'm going to assume we'll just have to agree to disagree on the trade deadline approach, but I hope you can see that there were viable reasons at the time to believe this team could have gotten the third Wild card spot, just as there were viable reasons to believe they could not make the playoffs. My final comment is referring to other's arguments as "dumb", saying they aren't being honest with themselves, and assuming people who liked the deadline moves are "Bloom fanboys" is counterproductive. This is better now here is my huge problem with that 33.1% number. First it’s hiding behind what is a very subjective number at a point in time. And One that wasnt great odds. For instance it ignored that within a span of 3 weeks we went from having an 80% chance at the playoffs to 33% So the reality is at that point in time our chances of making the playoffs was 33% and plummeting fast. My 2nd counterpoint to that is if you are going to use that number as the basis of your argument. Then, if fangraphs shows our opening day playoff% of 8%, then you should want a fire dale immediately if you were to have consistent logic and base moves off that number. Second counter point. I’m sure they fully executed “their” plan. My argument is their plan was bad. The half assed comment is in the grander scheme of things. They didn’t commit to buying or selling. In my opinion you need to commit to one for or the other for the most optimal results and benefit to the team. Cherrington tried the same kind of BS which was why we had that trade for Kelly and Craig. It’s rarely ever the optimal way to go. The moves weren’t only bad in hindsight because history shows taking the approach they did was really just a reshuffling of the same pieces. Like of course it didn’t work out. Lastly the bullpen was an absolute mess so if you weren’t going to fix that than yeah we should have traded everyone because we were not going anywhere with the bullpen as it was. In my opinion their whole approach was going to lead to the least efficient return on assets, which I think it did. And the goal is for the highest return on assets. They could trade Devers right now and if they got rustchman and Henderson from the Os (this is strictly hypothetical). You wouldn’t hear me complain one bit because that would be an amazing return on our biggest asset. That’s my approach, and that is why I though bloom’s deadline was awful in real time and even worse looking now.
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Post by taiwansox on Dec 27, 2022 19:25:41 GMT -5
With Eovaldi heading to Texas it continues to highlight how horrendous they handled the trade deadline. There were ways to get under the tax that didn’t involve waving the white flag or blowing up the roster. It’s just awful asset management, those little mistakes continue to add up. The payroll management around the deadline made no sense. I will say I wouldn’t want to be the Rangers. Their approach was like our approach in 2014-2015, signing “top” free agents for a class (Semien and Seager), but basically wasting their bullets and creating an incomplete roster. Really pissed off that we lose two players to free agency for freaking 4th round picks though. No idea how we can even spend up to the cap now. Maybe Kluber, Andrus, and sign Britton/Minor as a LHRP? That or a salary dump but there aren’t many pathways to improve this club
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Post by jmei on Dec 27, 2022 19:38:31 GMT -5
Let’s knock off the name calling (e.g., Bloom fanboys) and personal attacks (calling folks dumb or dishonest). I refer you to the forum ground rules. Thanks.
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Post by e on Dec 27, 2022 19:44:33 GMT -5
On August 2nd the Red Sox had a 33.1 percent chance of making the playoffs. This has been brought up multiple times by many posters, and just as how you spoke about all your reasons for believing they weren't making the playoffs, this argument is just as valid. You can disagree with the 33.1 percent reasoning, just as others disagree with your reasons for believing there was no chance of making the playoffs. Don't approach this discussion acting like you are the only one who has presented reasoning, or else this will become less productive. Many posters have said their plan was to buy and sell at the deadline. The Red Sox wanted to get their current team better while improving their farm system. This plan has positives and negatives. A positive is the team is not putting all their eggs in one basket (teardown or buy), and can theoretically improve their future, while also improving their present. The negative is it will not make a team substantially better or worse. It is more marginal improvements or subtractions. Reports coming out from reporters and Bloom himself indicated this was their plan. And whether or not you disagree with this plan, you cannot pretend the front office did not execute this plan or "half-assed it". They sold off Vazquez for two prospects who are now on the 40-man, traded Diekman for McGuire and PTBNL, and trade for Pham for next to nothing, along with getting Hosmer and two lesser prospects for Groome. They added to their farm system: Groome out with Valdez, Abreu, Ferguson, and Rosier is a system improvement. They also improved in the outfield with Pham and first base with Hosmer(was not hard to do considering how much of a dumpster fire that position was). They also improved for the rest of 2022 at catcher with McGuire, who was statistically much better than Vazquez after the deadline. From my view point the front office did not believe Story would be out for too long, Eovaldi was going to be back at full health, Wacha was coming back in August, Paxton could also be back in late August, and Sale could be back sometime in September. They probably though of them as "deadline additions" in a way. They believed their rotation would be stronger, their defense would shore up, and their acquisitions would make an already great offense better. Was it the right decision to buy and sell at the deadline? In hindsight no, but I won't fault the front office for making the decision to buy and sell when there was a reasonable argument for them still making the playoffs. I'm going to assume we'll just have to agree to disagree on the trade deadline approach, but I hope you can see that there were viable reasons at the time to believe this team could have gotten the third Wild card spot, just as there were viable reasons to believe they could not make the playoffs. My final comment is referring to other's arguments as "dumb", saying they aren't being honest with themselves, and assuming people who liked the deadline moves are "Bloom fanboys" is counterproductive. This is better now here is my huge problem with that 33.1% number. First it’s hiding behind what is a very subjective number at a point in time. And One that wasnt great odds. For instance it ignored that within a span of 3 weeks we went from having an 80% chance at the playoffs to 33% So the reality is at that point in time our chances of making the playoffs was 33% and plummeting fast. My 2nd counterpoint to that is if you are going to use that number as the basis of your argument. Then, if fangraphs shows our opening day playoff% of 8%, then you should want a fire dale immediately if you were to have consistent logic and base moves off that number.Second counter point. I’m sure they fully executed “their” plan. My argument is their plan was bad. The half assed comment is in the grander scheme of things. They didn’t commit to buying or selling. In my opinion you need to commit to one for or the other for the most optimal results and benefit to the team. Cherrington tried the same kind of BS which was why we had that trade for Kelly and Craig. It’s rarely ever the optimal way to go. The moves weren’t only bad in hindsight because history shows taking the approach they did was really just a reshuffling of the same pieces. Like of course it didn’t work out. Lastly the bullpen was an absolute mess so if you weren’t going to fix that than yeah we should have traded everyone because we were not going anywhere with the bullpen as it was. In my opinion their whole approach was going to lead to the least efficient return on assets, which I think it did. And the goal is for the highest return on assets. They could trade Devers right now and if they got rustchman and Henderson from the Os (this is strictly hypothetical). You wouldn’t hear me complain one bit because that would be an amazing return on our biggest asset. That’s my approach, and that is why I though bloom’s deadline was awful in real time and even worse looking now. Last point I'll make in regards to the deadline: there's a massive difference between looking at playoff odds with 162 games to play versus 57 games. So no, I wouldn't want a fire sale if the playoff odds were 8% before a single MLB game has been played, and its still logically consistent considering context is important. Along with the fact I provided other reasons why one could reasonably believe the Red Sox still had a chance at the playoffs.
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Post by manfred on Dec 27, 2022 19:44:48 GMT -5
With Nate off the board, I’d say… Yoshida better be really, really good. If he is even just pretty good, this has been ugly.
And, people can scoff at the Rangers, but they can hit and they added a #1 starter and a 2/3 guy. They aren’t messing around.
For all the talk of “always contending” who did more to be a contender this year? The Rangers. And you can say, yeah but those contracts. But that is a hypothesis that the Sox will be more set in 3 years. Who knows what happens between now and then? All I know is that the past two off-seasons the Rangers have said the their fans “here is a reason to watch.”
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 27, 2022 19:58:42 GMT -5
With Nate off the board, I’d say… Yoshida better be really, really good. If he is even just pretty good, this has been ugly. And, people can scoff at the Rangers, but they can hit and they added a #1 starter and a 2/3 guy. They aren’t messing around. For all the talk of “always contending” who did more to be a contender this year? The Rangers. And you can say, yeah but those contracts. But that is a hypothesis that the Sox will be more set in 3 years. Who knows what happens between now and then? All I know is that the past two off-seasons the Rangers have said the their fans “here is a reason to watch.” I think the Rangers actually exemplify why the team isn’t doing this at all costs. First of all the contracts last year didn’t work all that well, the team stunk anyways and every year it doesn’t work the odds of them paying off get worse. But more than that, they didn’t even actually drive fans to watch. The Rangers were 18th in attendance after being 5th in 21 (probably covid related) and 18th in ‘19. At the end of the day over the course of a long season what drives fans to watch and turn out is winning. If the big contracts aren’t the best way to do that they aren’t the best way to drive sustainable fan interest.
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briam
Veteran
Posts: 1,180
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Post by briam on Dec 27, 2022 21:06:36 GMT -5
I’m seeing this from a lot of people in baseball media and I don’t think it’s just general groupthink. I’m not sure if Bloom and co. just keep misreading the market and are getting caught in the middle, or they lack a true vision/direction on how to build the roster, but you would have to be a pretty generous optimist to feel any confidence in the job this FO is doing right now.
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Post by jmei on Dec 27, 2022 21:14:20 GMT -5
I wonder if the strategy is driven by “sign/trade players that the spreadsheets say are net value positive.” That would explain the perceived randomness (or, on the flip side, creativity) and lack of sentimentality of recent moves and non-moves. There’s a certain admirable discipline in that kind of approach, and as a spreadsheets guy, it obviously has a certain appeal to me. But man, it puts a lot of pressure on getting the spreadsheets right.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Dec 27, 2022 21:17:11 GMT -5
I wonder if the strategy is driven by “sign/trade players that the spreadsheets say are net value positive.” That would explain the perceived randomness (or, on the flip side, creativity) and lack of sentimentality of recent moves and non-moves. There’s a certain admirable discipline in that kind of approach, and as a spreadsheets guy, it obviously has a certain appeal to me. But man, it puts a lot of pressure on getting the spreadsheets right. Well, as a fan who watches and listens and has a good feel for the game from decades of doing such - and one who is neither an advanced stat or spreadsheet guy- my heart tells me that this FO is just getting fleeced, and it pretty much sucks. Lots of the last two years have simply been an embarrassment.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 27, 2022 21:28:43 GMT -5
I wonder if the strategy is driven by “sign/trade players that the spreadsheets say are net value positive.” That would explain the perceived randomness (or, on the flip side, creativity) and lack of sentimentality of recent moves and non-moves. There’s a certain admirable discipline in that kind of approach, and as a spreadsheets guy, it obviously has a certain appeal to me. But man, it puts a lot of pressure on getting the spreadsheets right. Well, as a fan who watches and listens and has a good feel for the game from decades of doing such - and one who is neither an advanced stat or spreadsheet guy- my heart tells me that this FO is just getting fleeced, and it pretty much sucks. Lots of the last two years have simply been an embarrassment. Honestly I think the issue the team has right now is the exact opposite which is that they are seemingly not willing to lose the value exchange of a given transaction. The deals they do execute seem nearly universally to give them a surplus of value for what they gave, or at least have low risk (at least from the team's point of view at the time of the deal - minor league talent evaluation is a different and IMO so far undetermined question). Last off-season they never got another right fielder to fill the JBJ/Refnroe spot. Then they low-balled Xander on his extension offer. My take - admittedly as speculative as most others on here - is that they are abiding by their models to an extreme degree, to the point where sometimes it is detrimental to the team's overall direction, because it seems like they evaluate each transaction in a vacuum, more or less, and aren't willing to be on the losing side of the ledger (again, from their perspective at the time of the transaction) on any of them.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Dec 27, 2022 21:31:57 GMT -5
My biggest issue with the trade deadline was that they could've given away JD for nothing, gotten under the CBT threshold, and quite honestly made their 2022 team better. And it seemed like they could've gotten something for him at that. I think it's kinda wild they didn't do that. I have no issues with them trying to make the playoffs and I hope in the future they continue to take that mentality.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Dec 27, 2022 21:37:55 GMT -5
I’m seeing this from a lot of people in baseball media and I don’t think it’s just general groupthink. I’m not sure if Bloom and co. just keep misreading the market and are getting caught in the middle, or they lack a true vision/direction on how to build the roster, but you would have to be a pretty generous optimist to feel any confidence in the job this FO is doing right now. Sam Kennedy talked about continuing to make good decisions. If that is the case, I would like to hear the FO explain why each decision was a good one. In this case, if Bloom makes a statement like, with as many young starting pitchers we have we think it is important to have a stronger/ more effective back end of the bullpen, and bullpen in general, to insure that when the youngsters pitch well and have a lead, that the leads are held. This helps build confidence and gets the kids used to winning in the big leagues. These are my words not Bloom's of course, but detailed explanation of the motive behind a move and the desired outcome sure would help demistify the decision making. It is hard to be confident in the FO otherwise, especially during a period of obvious rebuilding.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 27, 2022 21:39:10 GMT -5
My biggest issue with the trade deadline was that they could've given away JD for nothing, gotten under the CBT threshold, and quite honestly made their 2022 team better. And it seemed like they could've gotten something for him at that. I think it's kinda wild they didn't do that. I have no issues with them trying to make the playoffs and I hope in the future they continue to take that mentality. Given how JDM played in the second half of the season. The sox would have had to attached prospects for a team to take on JDM’s entire salary
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briam
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Posts: 1,180
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Post by briam on Dec 27, 2022 21:40:38 GMT -5
My biggest issue with the trade deadline was that they could've given away JD for nothing, gotten under the CBT threshold, and quite honestly made their 2022 team better. And it seemed like they could've gotten something for him at that. I think it's kinda wild they didn't do that. I have no issues with them trying to make the playoffs and I hope in the future they continue to take that mentality. Given how JDM played in the second half of the season. The sox would have had to attached prospects for a team to take on JDM’s entire salary
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 27, 2022 21:45:46 GMT -5
I’m seeing this from a lot of people in baseball media and I don’t think it’s just general groupthink. I’m not sure if Bloom and co. just keep misreading the market and are getting caught in the middle, or they lack a true vision/direction on how to build the roster, but you would have to be a pretty generous optimist to feel any confidence in the job this FO is doing right now. Sam Kennedy talked about continuing to make good decisions. If that is the case, I would like to hear the FO explain why each decision was a good one. In this case, if Bloom makes a statement like, with as many young starting pitchers we have we think it is important to have a stronger/ more effective back end of the bullpen, and bullpen in general, to insure that when the youngsters pitch well and have a lead, that the leads are held. This helps build confidence and gets the kids used to winning in the big leagues. These are my words not Bloom's of course, but detailed explanation of the motive behind a move and the desired outcome sure would help demistify the decision making. It is hard to be confident in the FO otherwise, especially during a period of obvious rebuilding. Reminds me of an episode of West Wing where a candidate for president hosts a "till they drop" press conference outside a nuclear plant that he had pushed to open which had an incident. The presser works in that he answers all of the reporters questions and eventually they have nothing else to pester and the media turns in his favor. I'd enjoy seeing Bloom do this, because I do to your point, think he could offer answers to each that are at least understandable to the general public and personally I'd enjoy a little more positivity in the team's coverage. I also think, with a fan base so passionate, it's kind of nice to have some direct accountability in that way. Now, a GM isn't dependent on public votes in the same way, and the show was notoriously optimistic about human nature (I'm not sure that there's any scenario where Felger says nice things about the team/FO), so in reality this wouldn't work and will never happen. But I like the concept.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,951
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 27, 2022 21:58:58 GMT -5
Sam Kennedy talked about continuing to make good decisions. If that is the case, I would like to hear the FO explain why each decision was a good one. In this case, if Bloom makes a statement like, with as many young starting pitchers we have we think it is important to have a stronger/ more effective back end of the bullpen, and bullpen in general, to insure that when the youngsters pitch well and have a lead, that the leads are held. This helps build confidence and gets the kids used to winning in the big leagues. These are my words not Bloom's of course, but detailed explanation of the motive behind a move and the desired outcome sure would help demistify the decision making. It is hard to be confident in the FO otherwise, especially during a period of obvious rebuilding. Reminds me of an episode of West Wing where a candidate for president hosts a "till they drop" press conference outside a nuclear plant that he had pushed to open which had an incident. The presser works in that he answers all of the reporters questions and eventually they have nothing else to pester and the media turns in his favor. I'd enjoy seeing Bloom do this, because I do to your point, think he could offer answers to each that are at least understandable to the general public and personally I'd enjoy a little more positivity in the team's coverage. I also think, with a fan base so passionate, it's kind of nice to have some direct accountability in that way. Now, a GM isn't dependent on public votes in the same way, and the show was notoriously optimistic about human nature (I'm not sure that there's any scenario where Felger says nice things about the team/FO), so in reality this wouldn't work and will never happen. But I like the concept. Big yes on the FO being more forthcoming about what they're trying to do. I think a big part of Bloom's/the FO's problem is nobody has cogently explained what they're trying to do. I mean, I know they've said they want to compete now and build for the future but that is trite and meaningless. What business in the world doesn't want to do well now and, oh by the way, in the future too? My hope is that Bloom wants to develop stars and sign them to long-term contracts early in their cost-controlled years. That way, he could have a stallion of young studs who are the best players on the team, each making ~$15M in AAV until their early 30s. That would give them the flexibility to make mid-range signings like Story, Yoshida and Jansen without bloating the payroll like D-Dom did and putting themselves in a position where it takes several years to dig out. I'd like that strategy and would like to know whether that's what he's doing. Because since the end of the 2021 ALCS, I haven't been able to figure out what the hell the plan is or if there even is one.
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Post by rico6 on Dec 27, 2022 22:23:38 GMT -5
I wonder if the strategy is driven by “sign/trade players that the spreadsheets say are net value positive.” That would explain the perceived randomness (or, on the flip side, creativity) and lack of sentimentality of recent moves and non-moves. There’s a certain admirable discipline in that kind of approach, and as a spreadsheets guy, it obviously has a certain appeal to me. But man, it puts a lot of pressure on getting the spreadsheets right. Well, as a fan who watches and listens and has a good feel for the game from decades of doing such - and one who is neither an advanced stat or spreadsheet guy- my heart tells me that this FO is just getting fleeced, and it pretty much sucks. Lots of the last two years have simply been an embarrassment. I've been a fan since 67 as well and it's starting to feel like they are moving towards the spreadsheet approach which results in a team of transient players hoping to be in it at the break and add some players then for the rest of the half year and perhaps postseason. No longer a team where you can, as a fan, have a favorite player for a number of years (as they won't keep a homegrown talent if the numbers don't meet the spreadsheet data). Or, even the excitement of an elite player or two on the team to go with the prospects. I will find it hard to be excited if the goal is to bargain shop (with the result being to consistently field a mediocre team) in order to maximize the net value with the hope of just getting a wild card (where anything could happen). Even after losing seasons, there was always offseason excitement as to what the Sox would do to improve, who they would sign or trade for to make a significant improvement for next season's team. I don't have the same feeling about how this team is being run. When they signed Jansen and then Yoshida, I thought for sure there would be a run for the Sox (maybe sign Xander or someone else of significance or a significant trade) because they would be investing that money for Jansen and Yoshida if they weren't adding significant additions. While Sam Kennedy believes they have been and are making the right decisions, I just don't have the confidence that the right decisions have to do with fielding an exciting team vs the right decisions to build a team that maximizes a cell on a spreadsheet.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 27, 2022 22:31:36 GMT -5
Reminds me of an episode of West Wing where a candidate for president hosts a "till they drop" press conference outside a nuclear plant that he had pushed to open which had an incident. The presser works in that he answers all of the reporters questions and eventually they have nothing else to pester and the media turns in his favor. I'd enjoy seeing Bloom do this, because I do to your point, think he could offer answers to each that are at least understandable to the general public and personally I'd enjoy a little more positivity in the team's coverage. I also think, with a fan base so passionate, it's kind of nice to have some direct accountability in that way. Now, a GM isn't dependent on public votes in the same way, and the show was notoriously optimistic about human nature (I'm not sure that there's any scenario where Felger says nice things about the team/FO), so in reality this wouldn't work and will never happen. But I like the concept. Big yes on the FO being more forthcoming about what they're trying to do. I think a big part of Bloom's/the FO's problem is nobody has cogently explained what they're trying to do. I mean, I know they've said they want to compete now and build for the future but that is trite and meaningless. What business in the world doesn't want to do well now and, oh by the way, in the future too? My hope is that Bloom wants to develop stars and sign them to long-term contracts early in their cost-controlled years. That way, he could have a stallion of young studs who are the best players on the team, each making ~$15M in AAV until their early 30s. That would give them the flexibility to make mid-range signings like Story, Yoshida and Jansen without bloating the payroll like D-Dom did and putting themselves in a position where it takes several years to dig out. I'd like that strategy and would like to know whether that's what he's doing. Because since the end of the 2021 ALCS, I haven't been able to figure out what the hell the plan is or if there even is one. I think there was s plan this offseason but they weren't realistic as to how ti accomplish it In Bloom's mind the lineup he envisioned was: Lf Yoshida SS Bogaerts 3b Devers DH Abreu Rf Verdugo 2b Story 1b Casas Cf Hernandez C. McGuire/Wong Strong lineup. He talked about passing 2 guys toward the top half of the rotation. Perhaps Heaney and Elfin were what he had in mind? He wanted bullpen stability and targeted Jansen and Rodriguez, and Martin and/or Kahnle. But he never realistically had a shot at retaining Bogaerts. He gave X an offer he would have jumped on a year earlier and didn't realize that figure wouldn't even compete with the runner ups for Xander's services. Likewise Abreu was one of his main priorities according to reports and he was nowhere near what the Astros signed him for, which isnt much different as to how ridiculously far off he was with his retention offer to Schwarber the year before. His model seems to have no clue in market values nor do they factor in the advantage to signing guys who actually want to play for the Sox or stay playing for them. So I do think they have plans. I just think their execution of those plans are faulty or the premise of their plans can be faulty, like last deadline.
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