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Evaluating the Front Office and Ownership
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Post by patford on Jan 22, 2023 18:57:26 GMT -5
There's a lot to debate with all GMs and all of it is after the fact. Baseball isn't like predicting an NFL defensive lineman is going to be good. It's more like trying to predict whether or not a college QB is going to be good. The "Batting Average" for a GM would be off the charts if they "hit" .100. I think baseball prospects are harder to predict than prospects in any other sport. Jeter Downs is a good example. As I recall Downs was seen as a highish floor not a high ceiling. Most people at worst thought he would be a MLB player even if it was a utility IF. Instead he completely tanked. Tanked to a point where he looked so lost it was hopeless and there weren't even injuries involved. And again. He was seen as a safe "floor" kind of guy with the outside possibility of more. I guess most fans think the Padres or Mets GMs are geniuses because the owners spend like drunken stockbrokers.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 22, 2023 18:57:31 GMT -5
He shouldn't have traded Margot; he shouldn't have acquired Kimbrel at all. Margot would have been a very useful player for them over the last several years. He gave up a lot for Sale. I lean just this side of feeling that it was worth it, but we dodged a huge bullet by the White Sox choosing Moncada over Devers as the primary piece of that deal. (Even so, Moncada and Kopech would have been nice to keep as well.) Travis Shaw and Mauricio Dubon would have been helpful to have around, and they got nothing out of that deal. (Never trade for relievers...) This also leaves out that he traded Santiago Espinal for Steve Pearce (which is not one I regret, on balance, given what Pearce did for them in 2018, but it was another subtraction from the farm system that is hurting them in the present). So: Margot, Shaw, and Dubon was the value he gave up needlessly. Kopech, Moncada, and Espinal are talents that he gave up that were arguably worth it. The other half of the story, like I mentioned, is that he literally never added a single prospect of any significance through trades. I agree (and mentioned myself) that the seeds for the team's recent lack of good young talent were planted in the early 2010s under Cherington; but Dombrowski did nothing to avert that problem, and in fact made it worse.
Yeah, like I said with respect to DD there's plenty to debate. I don't want to relitigate every detail but I will say that Kimbrel putting up 6.5 bWAR over three seasons is phenomenal for a reliver so I think there was more "give talent to get talent" then you're giving credit for. Thornton for Shaw et al was bad, but I think the Pomeranz acquisition makes up for it. All in all, that does seem a lot more neutral-to-good than his reputation of extremely poor. As far as the other half of the story, what exactly is it that Bloom has done that you are impressed by? The 2020 season they gave up on produced the Mookie trade, Phillies trade, and drafting Mayer. The rest has largely, IMO, produced a net-negative effect if anything. I agree that he's focused more on these type of player-for-prospect and prospect-for-prospect exchanges than DD ever did, but the reputation that he's building as some sort of prospect genius seems to be based more on motion than results. This has been my main criticism of Bloom - he is entirely unremarkable and indistinguishable from about 15-20 other MLB GMs. People told me to wait and see what he does with all this money in the 2022-23 off-season(!). So, the off-season is nearly done, and again, I'm completely unimpressed. He's an average GM at best, at least judging by his performance three years in. This ownership keeps talking about competitiveness and being one of the best teams in MLB. You don't get there with mediocre leadership. How much more time does Bloom get to prove he's better than that?
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Post by pappyman99 on Jan 22, 2023 19:01:02 GMT -5
There's a lot to debate with all GMs and all of it is after the fact. Baseball isn't like predicting an NFL defensive lineman is going to be good. It's more like trying to predict whether or not a college QB is going to be good. The "Batting Average" for a GM would be off the charts if they "hit" .100. I think baseball prospects are harder to predict than prospects in any other sport. Jeter Downs is a good example. As I recall Downs was seen as a highish floor not a high ceiling. Most people at worst thought he would be a MLB player even if it was a utility IF. Instead he completely tanked. Tanked to a point where he looked so lost it was hopeless and there weren't even injuries involved. And again. He was seen as a safe "floor" kind of guy with the outside possibility of more. I guess most fans think the Padres or Mets GMs are geniuses because the owners spend like drunken stockbrokers. To be fair though, downs is still capable of being a .225/.300 middle infielder with 20 HR power. So that’s a decent floor, not sure what his defense is like though
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Post by patford on Jan 22, 2023 19:03:37 GMT -5
People who boo are the same people who go to concerts and scream "PLAY FREE BIRD!!!!" "Rock and Roll!!!"
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jan 22, 2023 19:16:47 GMT -5
i think the points about Dombrowski giving up too much is valid. I remember reading an article where an unnamed opposing GM said something to the effect of....just ask for certain guys and you will get 'em, meaning he wasn't in to hardcore negotiation. i tried to find the article, but couldn't.
I am not of the belief that 3 years later, Bloom and the FO is being hindered by DD. That time has passed for me, if it ever existed much at all. He has been free to engineer the roster as he sees fit. Hope he can do well in that regard from here on out.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jan 22, 2023 19:17:29 GMT -5
People who boo are the same people who go to concerts and scream " PLAY FREE BIRD!!!!" "Rock and Roll!!!" is there something wrong with that ? LOL
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Post by patford on Jan 22, 2023 19:56:24 GMT -5
i think the points about Dombrowski giving up too much is valid. I remember reading an article where an unnamed opposing GM said something to the effect of....just ask for certain guys and you will get 'em, meaning he wasn't in to hardcore negotiation. i tried to find the article, but couldn't. I am not of the belief that 3 years later, Bloom and the FO is being hindered by DD. That time has passed for me, if it ever existed much at all. He has been free to engineer the roster as he sees fit. Hope he can do well in that regard from here on out. Belaboring the point but the GM is the hand of the owner. The Sox signed three of the worst long term deals a person could research and find and that very likely is a factor. Belaboring the point #2. The Sox damn near made it to the World Series in 2021.
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Post by patford on Jan 22, 2023 19:58:42 GMT -5
People who boo are the same people who go to concerts and scream " PLAY FREE BIRD!!!!" "Rock and Roll!!!" is there something wrong with that ? LOL I'm more of a, "Hey don't Bogart the joint" type.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 22, 2023 23:05:35 GMT -5
This is probably a naive question but... what were those fans booing about anyway? I would get it if they hadn't yet extended Devers, but... they have. Are they still upset about Bogaerts leaving? Did they want to match the Padres' offer? Do they not approve of the team's other additions this offseason? And they just mad that the team had a terrible run of injuries and only won 78 games last season? It seemed like the "Red Sox adrift" narrative was all built around the premise that they don't keep any of their homegrown stars, which very understandably makes fans upset. But now they've gone and done just that with their most important current star. So I'm legitimately not sure what the anger - not just disgruntlement, but *anger* - is about exactly. I've been to each Winter Weekend since they started having this event in 2015 and was there on Friday night, so I can answer your question. They were PO'ed about (in this order): the Bogaerts fiasco (100 percent justified in my view); not resigning Mookie (not justified); the last place finish (eh, kind of justified); and the overall lack of star power on this team (justified). I didn't hear anyone mention the trade deadline but it's clear people felt the team has been mismanaged over the past year. I am at the front of the line on that one. I can also tell you that the Twitter vid does not capture the full extent of the contempt people showed for Bloom and Henry. You can tell it was shot from the upper section. I was seated on the floor and heard a steady stream of sarcastic laughs and comments that the vid doesn't pick up. (Not that the Mass Mutual Center is that big, but I definitely heard more than you hear on the vid.) For instance, if you go to the part of the vid where Bloom repeatedly talks about making "bets" on players, you hear some audience reaction but can't really decipher what people were saying. People laughed and made comments like, "Yeah, bets. You mean like Mookie Betts?" I thought those comments were pretty funny. The vid also doesn't capture the management team being announced and walking onto the stage. There were boos and shouts of "Where's Xander?" along with a few short-lived attempts to get a Xander chant going. Xander's name flew out of people's mouths a lot during the Town Hall. Overall, I'd describe the whole thing as a mix of contempt, ridicule and anger. I had no problem with it whatsoever. That's because of the things I didn't see or hear. There were no slurs or threats of violence. I'd be out on defending any of that garbage. I don't even recall hearing profanity. (Truth be told, with the mouth on me I'd be quite a hypocrite if I took a hard line against profanity in any setting! ) This was not Jan. 6 with people buying into a wild lie and trying to violently overthrow the U.S. government, folks. These were passionate, well-informed fans expressing frustration, albeit in a bellicose way, but also in a peaceful way. It's also not true that the crowd kept Bloom from speaking. The vid shows that he gave an expansive answer and it was all audible. I followed posts on my phone throughout the weekend, including during the Town Hall meeting. Those who were indignant and huffed out a tone of "Oh my goodness, they booed our management team," need to get over the naivete. And it's all the press's fault? Please. We are not a bunch of dolts who can't see for ourselves what has happened and have fallen under the spell of the press, which, in case you haven't noticed, has become less influential in the past 15 years. That's my 2 cents - though maybe I should say it's my $95 because that's what they charge for Winter Weekend!
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Post by wingman478 on Jan 22, 2023 23:39:45 GMT -5
This is probably a naive question but... what were those fans booing about anyway? I would get it if they hadn't yet extended Devers, but... they have. Are they still upset about Bogaerts leaving? Did they want to match the Padres' offer? Do they not approve of the team's other additions this offseason? And they just mad that the team had a terrible run of injuries and only won 78 games last season? It seemed like the "Red Sox adrift" narrative was all built around the premise that they don't keep any of their homegrown stars, which very understandably makes fans upset. But now they've gone and done just that with their most important current star. So I'm legitimately not sure what the anger - not just disgruntlement, but *anger* - is about exactly. It may be a unfair and really high bar, but the Sox have won within the first 3 years of a GM being in Boston in the Henry era. The Sox memo has been sustainable success since Bloom has gotten here. Hasn't happened yet. More of the same really highs and lows, like when Cherrington and Dombrowski was here. Personally, we haven't seen a lot of high risk moves from Bloom. Like a franchise altering trade. Beckett for Hanley. Nomar trade. Dumping Crawford, Beckett, and Gonzalez. Chris Sale trade. This is the type of moves we've seen from past GM's. Hasn't come yet with Bloom. I think we are all kind of still waiting for that and the wait is grueling. People will get upset because no one likes to wait. Of course, Xander and Mookie will always leave a bad taste in everyone's mouths.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 23, 2023 0:52:04 GMT -5
This is probably a naive question but... what were those fans booing about anyway? I would get it if they hadn't yet extended Devers, but... they have. Are they still upset about Bogaerts leaving? Did they want to match the Padres' offer? Do they not approve of the team's other additions this offseason? And they just mad that the team had a terrible run of injuries and only won 78 games last season? It seemed like the "Red Sox adrift" narrative was all built around the premise that they don't keep any of their homegrown stars, which very understandably makes fans upset. But now they've gone and done just that with their most important current star. So I'm legitimately not sure what the anger - not just disgruntlement, but *anger* - is about exactly. It may be a unfair and really high bar, but the Sox have won within the first 3 years of a GM being in Boston in the Henry era. The Sox memo has been sustainable success since Bloom has gotten here. Hasn't happened yet. More of the same really highs and lows, like when Cherrington and Dombrowski was here. Personally, we haven't seen a lot of high risk moves from Bloom. Like a franchise altering trade. Beckett for Hanley. Nomar trade. Dumping Crawford, Beckett, and Gonzalez. Chris Sale trade. This is the type of moves we've seen from past GM's. Hasn't come yet with Bloom. I think we are all kind of still waiting for that and the wait is grueling. People will get upset because no one likes to wait. Of course, Xander and Mookie will always leave a bad taste in everyone's mouths. Doesn't have a Nomar trade or a dump Crawford, Beckett, and Gonzalez move? My guy, he quite literally had both those moves in a single Betts/Price trade
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Post by wingman478 on Jan 23, 2023 0:57:06 GMT -5
It may be a unfair and really high bar, but the Sox have won within the first 3 years of a GM being in Boston in the Henry era. The Sox memo has been sustainable success since Bloom has gotten here. Hasn't happened yet. More of the same really highs and lows, like when Cherrington and Dombrowski was here. Personally, we haven't seen a lot of high risk moves from Bloom. Like a franchise altering trade. Beckett for Hanley. Nomar trade. Dumping Crawford, Beckett, and Gonzalez. Chris Sale trade. This is the type of moves we've seen from past GM's. Hasn't come yet with Bloom. I think we are all kind of still waiting for that and the wait is grueling. People will get upset because no one likes to wait. Of course, Xander and Mookie will always leave a bad taste in everyone's mouths. Doesn't have a Nomar trade or a dump Crawford, Beckett, and Gonzalez move? My guy, he quite literally had both those moves in a single Betts/Price trade Okay I'll be more specific. A altering franchise trade that has made them better and changed the course of this franchise for the better. Nomar trade directly lead to a championship. So did Beckett. The Gonzalez trade opened up room for the Sox to sign Victorino, Gomes, Napoli, Koji. Chris Sale gave the Sox one of the best season's from a starting pitcher in 2018 (up until he got hurt) since Pedro Martinez was here. Closed out the 2018 world series. Mookie trade gave the Sox Verdugo and cleared room on payroll temporarily that has lead to what? My opinion (but this might be my opinion only), the Mookie trade wasn't a franchise altering trade for the Red Sox. It certainly was for Dodgers. It was just a regular trade based on the presumption that Betts was essentially a goner, limiting the return.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jan 23, 2023 2:35:18 GMT -5
This is probably a naive question but... what were those fans booing about anyway? I would get it if they hadn't yet extended Devers, but... they have. Are they still upset about Bogaerts leaving? Did they want to match the Padres' offer? Do they not approve of the team's other additions this offseason? And they just mad that the team had a terrible run of injuries and only won 78 games last season? It seemed like the "Red Sox adrift" narrative was all built around the premise that they don't keep any of their homegrown stars, which very understandably makes fans upset. But now they've gone and done just that with their most important current star. So I'm legitimately not sure what the anger - not just disgruntlement, but *anger* - is about exactly. I've been to each Winter Weekend since they started having this event in 2015 and was there on Friday night, so I can answer your question. They were PO'ed about (in this order): the Bogaerts fiasco (100 percent justified in my view); not resigning Mookie (not justified); the last place finish (eh, kind of justified); and the overall lack of star power on this team (justified). I didn't hear anyone mention the trade deadline but it's clear people felt the team has been mismanaged over the past year. I am at the front of the line on that one. I can also tell you that the Twitter vid does not capture the full extent of the contempt people showed for Bloom and Henry. You can tell it was shot from the upper section. I was seated on the floor and heard a steady stream of sarcastic laughs and comments that the vid doesn't pick up. (Not that the Mass Mutual Center is that big, but I definitely heard more than you hear on the vid.) For instance, if you go to the part of the vid where Bloom repeatedly talks about making "bets" on players, you hear some audience reaction but can't really decipher what people were saying. People laughed and made comments like, "Yeah, bets. You mean like Mookie Betts?" I thought those comments were pretty funny. The vid also doesn't capture the management team being announced and walking onto the stage. There were boos and shouts of "Where's Xander?" along with a few short-lived attempts to get a Xander chant going. Xander's name flew out of people's mouths a lot during the Town Hall. Overall, I'd describe the whole thing as a mix of contempt, ridicule and anger. I had no problem with it whatsoever. That's because of the things I didn't see or hear. There were no slurs or threats of violence. I'd be out on defending any of that garbage. I don't even recall hearing profanity. (Truth be told, with the mouth on me I'd be quite a hypocrite if I took a hard line against profanity in any setting! ) This was not Jan. 6 with people buying into a wild lie and trying to violently overthrow the U.S. government, folks. These were passionate, well-informed fans expressing frustration, albeit in a bellicose way, but also in a peaceful way. It's also not true that the crowd kept Bloom from speaking. The vid shows that he gave an expansive answer and it was all audible. I followed posts on my phone throughout the weekend, including during the Town Hall meeting. Those who were indignant and huffed out a tone of "Oh my goodness, they booed our management team," need to get over the naivete. And it's all the press's fault? Please. We are not a bunch of dolts who can't see for ourselves what has happened and have fallen under the spell of the press, which, in case you haven't noticed, has become less influential in the past 15 years. That's my 2 cents - though maybe I should say it's my $95 because that's what they charge for Winter Weekend! thanks Tears. it is good to get a review from someone who was on the ground.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jan 23, 2023 2:39:03 GMT -5
i think the points about Dombrowski giving up too much is valid. I remember reading an article where an unnamed opposing GM said something to the effect of....just ask for certain guys and you will get 'em, meaning he wasn't in to hardcore negotiation. i tried to find the article, but couldn't. I am not of the belief that 3 years later, Bloom and the FO is being hindered by DD. That time has passed for me, if it ever existed much at all. He has been free to engineer the roster as he sees fit. Hope he can do well in that regard from here on out. Belaboring the point but the GM is the hand of the owner. The Sox signed three of the worst long term deals a person could research and find and that very likely is a factor. Belaboring the point #2. The Sox damn near made it to the World Series in 2021. i was ecstatic about the 2021 run as well, but let's put it in perspective. They tied for the WC (with 92 wins), won a one game playoff, and then beat a better constructed team. I will take that every time as a selfish Sox fan, but some of that run was just playoff / short series fortune. It wasn't like they set the league on fire that season.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 23, 2023 9:35:13 GMT -5
There's a lot to debate with all GMs and all of it is after the fact. Baseball isn't like predicting an NFL defensive lineman is going to be good. It's more like trying to predict whether or not a college QB is going to be good. The "Batting Average" for a GM would be off the charts if they "hit" .100. I think baseball prospects are harder to predict than prospects in any other sport. Jeter Downs is a good example. As I recall Downs was seen as a highish floor not a high ceiling. Most people at worst thought he would be a MLB player even if it was a utility IF. Instead he completely tanked. Tanked to a point where he looked so lost it was hopeless and there weren't even injuries involved. And again. He was seen as a safe "floor" kind of guy with the outside possibility of more. I guess most fans think the Padres or Mets GMs are geniuses because the owners spend like drunken stockbrokers. Yeah, I don't blame Bloom for the collapse of Downs. The kid was a highly rated prospect at the time and fizzled when he hit the upper levels of the minors. It happens. It's similar to how nobody should question D-Dom's judgment in using a 1-12 pick on Jay Groome. It was the common-sense pick. With these young kids, you spend your money, you take your chance. It's different if a GM runs up a record of failures, but you can't judge based on one decision.
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Post by vaulter on Jan 23, 2023 9:57:01 GMT -5
There's a lot to debate with all GMs and all of it is after the fact. Baseball isn't like predicting an NFL defensive lineman is going to be good. It's more like trying to predict whether or not a college QB is going to be good. The "Batting Average" for a GM would be off the charts if they "hit" .100. I think baseball prospects are harder to predict than prospects in any other sport. Jeter Downs is a good example. As I recall Downs was seen as a highish floor not a high ceiling. Most people at worst thought he would be a MLB player even if it was a utility IF. Instead he completely tanked. Tanked to a point where he looked so lost it was hopeless and there weren't even injuries involved. And again. He was seen as a safe "floor" kind of guy with the outside possibility of more. I guess most fans think the Padres or Mets GMs are geniuses because the owners spend like drunken stockbrokers. Yeah, I don't blame Bloom for the collapse of Downs. The kid was a highly rated prospect at the time and fizzled when he hit the upper levels of the minors. It happens. It's similar to how nobody should question D-Dom's judgment in using a 1-12 pick on Jay Groome. It was the common-sense pick. With these young kids, you spend your money, you take your chance. It's different if a GM runs up a record of failures, but you can't judge based on one decision. Well, the Red Sox had a deal in place to get Graterol back in the Betts trade but balked for whatever reason and wound up with Downs and Wong instead. Graterol has had some injury issues with LA but he can pitch when he's not. On the other hand, if Downs was such a highly regarded prospect, why not flip him as part of a deal for an established player. Part of running a baseball team is knowing what prospects are expendable and which are not.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 23, 2023 10:57:28 GMT -5
Yeah, I don't blame Bloom for the collapse of Downs. The kid was a highly rated prospect at the time and fizzled when he hit the upper levels of the minors. It happens. It's similar to how nobody should question D-Dom's judgment in using a 1-12 pick on Jay Groome. It was the common-sense pick. With these young kids, you spend your money, you take your chance. It's different if a GM runs up a record of failures, but you can't judge based on one decision. Well, the Red Sox had a deal in place to get Graterol back in the Betts trade but balked for whatever reason and wound up with Downs and Wong instead. Graterol has had some injury issues with LA but he can pitch when he's not. On the other hand, if Downs was such a highly regarded prospect, why not flip him as part of a deal for an established player. Part of running a baseball team is knowing what prospects are expendable and which are not. The reason they balked with Graterol is that they were concerned that he'd have health issues and wind up in the bullpen....
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Post by incandenza on Jan 23, 2023 11:13:41 GMT -5
He shouldn't have traded Margot; he shouldn't have acquired Kimbrel at all. Margot would have been a very useful player for them over the last several years.
He gave up a lot for Sale. I lean just this side of feeling that it was worth it, but we dodged a huge bullet by the White Sox choosing Moncada over Devers as the primary piece of that deal. (Even so, Moncada and Kopech would have been nice to keep as well.)
Travis Shaw and Mauricio Dubon would have been helpful to have around, and they got nothing out of that deal. (Never trade for relievers...)
This also leaves out that he traded Santiago Espinal for Steve Pearce (which is not one I regret, on balance, given what Pearce did for them in 2018, but it was another subtraction from the farm system that is hurting them in the present).
So: Margot, Shaw, and Dubon was the value he gave up needlessly. Kopech, Moncada, and Espinal are talents that he gave up that were arguably worth it.
The other half of the story, like I mentioned, is that he literally never added a single prospect of any significance through trades.
I agree (and mentioned myself) that the seeds for the team's recent lack of good young talent were planted in the early 2010s under Cherington; but Dombrowski did nothing to avert that problem, and in fact made it worse.
Yeah, like I said with respect to DD there's plenty to debate. I don't want to relitigate every detail but I will say that Kimbrel putting up 6.5 bWAR over three seasons is phenomenal for a reliver so I think there was more "give talent to get talent" then you're giving credit for. Thornton for Shaw et al was bad, but I think the Pomeranz acquisition makes up for it. All in all, that does seem a lot more neutral-to-good than his reputation of extremely poor. As far as the other half of the story, what exactly is it that Bloom has done that you are impressed by? The 2020 season they gave up on produced the Mookie trade, Phillies trade, and drafting Mayer. The rest has largely, IMO, produced a net-negative effect if anything. I agree that he's focused more on these type of player-for-prospect and prospect-for-prospect exchanges than DD ever did, but the reputation that he's building as some sort of prospect genius seems to be based more on motion than results.
Things Bloom has done that I am impressed by:
- Excellent track record with his free agent signings; see julyanmorley's scorecard. - He's had three excellent trade deadlines in a row. 2020: Seabold got derailed by injuries but Pivetta alone was a great get. 2021: Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber was THE steal of that deadline. 2022: Managed to upgrade at catcher while simultaneously adding prospects and saving money on long-term payroll, a pretty remarkable trick. - Good job of finding value in the scrap heaps (Whitlock above all, but also Arroyo and Schreiber) - He extended Devers!!!
Things Bloom has done poorly in my view:
- Failure to made a legit extension offer to Bogaerts prior to the 2022 season. This is the big one: a major mistake that really makes the team worse for at least the next couple of years. - Failure to add an outfielder pre-2022 when there seemed to be an obvious need and they were going over the CBT anyway. - Not a fan of the Jansen signing, but obviously we'll see how that turns out.
On the question of the prospects he's acquired in trade returns, here's where I'm at on that: these are all probabilistic moves; if you get a bunch of guys with a 10-20% chance of making it, most of those guys won't work out - but you only need the occasional guy to work out to make the strategy worthwhile. So far I'd say they haven't succeeded as much as one could probabilistically expect. Is that Bloom's fault? Or have they just rolled snake eyes a couple times? On Downs, it's hard to blame him when it was a univeral view that he was, as patford said, a high-floor cinch to make it as a starter. Ultimately, prospects' futures are not 100% knowable; such failures just come with the territory.
Having said that, it becomes concerning if they start to look like they're systematically missing on these bets. I don't think we're there yet. But I give it one more year. If a year from now it looks like all of Wong, Winckowski, Hamilton, Binelas, Valdez, or Abreu are on track to wash out then I'll be more than a little concerned.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 23, 2023 11:22:39 GMT -5
Belaboring the point but the GM is the hand of the owner. The Sox signed three of the worst long term deals a person could research and find and that very likely is a factor. Belaboring the point #2. The Sox damn near made it to the World Series in 2021. i was ecstatic about the 2021 run as well, but let's put it in perspective. They tied for the WC (with 92 wins), won a one game playoff, and then beat a better constructed team. I will take that every time as a selfish Sox fan, but some of that run was just playoff / short series fortune. It wasn't like they set the league on fire that season. Did they tie for the WC? They won the same number of games as the MFYs but I think they were recognized as the second-place team because of a tiebreaker. That may seem like a small point, but it's not. It's the reason the game was at Fenway. And they didn't just win a one-game playoff. They beat the MFYs. So, I'd describe it as THEY WON A ONE-GAME PLAYOFF AGAINST THE MFYS!!!!!" (Multiple happy dance emojis here if I knew how to find them.) As far as playoff and short series fortune, that's how the game is now. They were better than the 2022 Phillies, who finished third with 87 wins and went to the WS, or the NLCS Padres, who finished 22 games out of first. We're going to see a lot more of that in both leagues with the three-team wild card format. I actually liked the pre-2022 format with the one-game playoff. It incented winning a division.
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Post by manfred on Jan 23, 2023 11:27:59 GMT -5
Yeah, like I said with respect to DD there's plenty to debate. I don't want to relitigate every detail but I will say that Kimbrel putting up 6.5 bWAR over three seasons is phenomenal for a reliver so I think there was more "give talent to get talent" then you're giving credit for. Thornton for Shaw et al was bad, but I think the Pomeranz acquisition makes up for it. All in all, that does seem a lot more neutral-to-good than his reputation of extremely poor. As far as the other half of the story, what exactly is it that Bloom has done that you are impressed by? The 2020 season they gave up on produced the Mookie trade, Phillies trade, and drafting Mayer. The rest has largely, IMO, produced a net-negative effect if anything. I agree that he's focused more on these type of player-for-prospect and prospect-for-prospect exchanges than DD ever did, but the reputation that he's building as some sort of prospect genius seems to be based more on motion than results.
Things Bloom has done that I am impressed by:
- Excellent track record with his free agent signings; see julyanmorley's scorecard. - He's had three excellent trade deadlines in a row. 2020: Seabold got derailed by injuries but Pivetta alone was a great get. 2021: Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber was THE steal of that deadline. 2022: Managed to upgrade at catcher while simultaneously adding prospects and saving money on long-term payroll, a pretty remarkable trick. - Good job of finding value in the scrap heaps (Whitlock above all, but also Arroyo and Schreiber) - He extended Devers!!!
Things Bloom has done poorly in my view:
- Failure to made a legit extension offer to Bogaerts prior to the 2022 season. This is the big one: a major mistake that really makes the team worse for at least the next couple of years. - Failure to add an outfielder pre-2022 when there seemed to be an obvious need and they were going over the CBT anyway. - Not a fan of the Jansen signing, but obviously we'll see how that turns out.
On the question of the prospects he's acquired in trade returns, here's where I'm at on that: these are all probabilistic moves; if you get a bunch of guys with a 10-20% chance of making it, most of those guys won't work out - but you only need the occasional guy to work out to make the strategy worthwhile. So far I'd say they haven't succeeded as much as one could probabilistically expect. Is that Bloom's fault? Or have they just rolled snake eyes a couple times? On Downs, it's hard to blame him when it was a univeral view that he was, as patford said, a high-floor cinch to make it as a starter. Ultimately, prospects' futures are not 100% knowable; such failures just come with the territory.
Having said that, it becomes concerning if they start to look like they're systematically missing on these bets. I don't think we're there yet. But I give it one more year. If a year from now it looks like all of Wong, Winckowski, Hamilton, Binelas, Valdez, or Abreu are on track to wash out then I'll be more than a little concerned.
It is odd to credit him with saving money at the 2022 deadline but ignore the failure to get under the tax line… costing them badly when X and Evo walked. You might consider broadly how little the return has been for outgoing talent. Mookie, Beni, X, Eovaldi, etc all brought back paltry returns. CVaz is TBD. The Renfroe trade was actively bad in light of the failure yo replace him. etc.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 23, 2023 12:26:33 GMT -5
Yeah, like I said with respect to DD there's plenty to debate. I don't want to relitigate every detail but I will say that Kimbrel putting up 6.5 bWAR over three seasons is phenomenal for a reliver so I think there was more "give talent to get talent" then you're giving credit for. Thornton for Shaw et al was bad, but I think the Pomeranz acquisition makes up for it. All in all, that does seem a lot more neutral-to-good than his reputation of extremely poor. As far as the other half of the story, what exactly is it that Bloom has done that you are impressed by? The 2020 season they gave up on produced the Mookie trade, Phillies trade, and drafting Mayer. The rest has largely, IMO, produced a net-negative effect if anything. I agree that he's focused more on these type of player-for-prospect and prospect-for-prospect exchanges than DD ever did, but the reputation that he's building as some sort of prospect genius seems to be based more on motion than results.
Things Bloom has done that I am impressed by: - Excellent track record with his free agent signings; see julyanmorley's scorecard. - He's had three excellent trade deadlines in a row. 2020: Seabold got derailed by injuries but Pivetta alone was a great get. 2021: Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber was THE steal of that deadline. 2022: Managed to upgrade at catcher while simultaneously adding prospects and saving money on long-term payroll, a pretty remarkable trick. - Good job of finding value in the scrap heaps (Whitlock above all, but also Arroyo and Schreiber) - He extended Devers!!!
Things Bloom has done poorly in my view: - Failure to made a legit extension offer to Bogaerts prior to the 2022 season. This is the big one: a major mistake that really makes the team worse for at least the next couple of years. - Failure to add an outfielder pre-2022 when there seemed to be an obvious need and they were going over the CBT anyway. - Not a fan of the Jansen signing, but obviously we'll see how that turns out. On the question of the prospects he's acquired in trade returns, here's where I'm at on that: these are all probabilistic moves; if you get a bunch of guys with a 10-20% chance of making it, most of those guys won't work out - but you only need the occasional guy to work out to make the strategy worthwhile. So far I'd say they haven't succeeded as much as one could probabilistically expect. Is that Bloom's fault? Or have they just rolled snake eyes a couple times? On Downs, it's hard to blame him when it was a univeral view that he was, as patford said, a high-floor cinch to make it as a starter. Ultimately, prospects' futures are not 100% knowable; such failures just come with the territory. Having said that, it becomes concerning if they start to look like they're systematically missing on these bets. I don't think we're there yet. But I give it one more year. If a year from now it looks like all of Wong, Winckowski, Hamilton, Binelas, Valdez, or Abreu are on track to wash out then I'll be more than a little concerned.
A little? How many of those guys will even have a lifetime fWAR of 5.0 or better? I see at least three who many never get more than a cup of coffee or two.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 23, 2023 12:36:13 GMT -5
Things Bloom has done that I am impressed by: - Excellent track record with his free agent signings; see julyanmorley's scorecard. - He's had three excellent trade deadlines in a row. 2020: Seabold got derailed by injuries but Pivetta alone was a great get. 2021: Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber was THE steal of that deadline. 2022: Managed to upgrade at catcher while simultaneously adding prospects and saving money on long-term payroll, a pretty remarkable trick. - Good job of finding value in the scrap heaps (Whitlock above all, but also Arroyo and Schreiber) - He extended Devers!!!
Things Bloom has done poorly in my view: - Failure to made a legit extension offer to Bogaerts prior to the 2022 season. This is the big one: a major mistake that really makes the team worse for at least the next couple of years. - Failure to add an outfielder pre-2022 when there seemed to be an obvious need and they were going over the CBT anyway. - Not a fan of the Jansen signing, but obviously we'll see how that turns out. On the question of the prospects he's acquired in trade returns, here's where I'm at on that: these are all probabilistic moves; if you get a bunch of guys with a 10-20% chance of making it, most of those guys won't work out - but you only need the occasional guy to work out to make the strategy worthwhile. So far I'd say they haven't succeeded as much as one could probabilistically expect. Is that Bloom's fault? Or have they just rolled snake eyes a couple times? On Downs, it's hard to blame him when it was a univeral view that he was, as patford said, a high-floor cinch to make it as a starter. Ultimately, prospects' futures are not 100% knowable; such failures just come with the territory. Having said that, it becomes concerning if they start to look like they're systematically missing on these bets. I don't think we're there yet. But I give it one more year. If a year from now it looks like all of Wong, Winckowski, Hamilton, Binelas, Valdez, or Abreu are on track to wash out then I'll be more than a little concerned.
A little? How many of those guys will even have a lifetime fWAR of 5.0 or better? I see at least three who many never get more than a cup of coffee or two. If two of those guys generate 5 wins for the Red Sox the whole approach is justified. Wong might be a little bit of a separate case being part of the Mookie deal, but even still if he is a decent player, that deal - which is already a positive for the Red Sox in terms of total wins traded away/for - will look okay as well.
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Post by manfred on Jan 23, 2023 12:42:39 GMT -5
A little? How many of those guys will even have a lifetime fWAR of 5.0 or better? I see at least three who many never get more than a cup of coffee or two. If two of those guys generate 5 wins for the Red Sox the whole approach is justified. Wong might be a little bit of a separate case being part of the Mookie deal, but even still if he is a decent player, that deal - which is already a positive for the Red Sox in terms of total wins traded away/for - will look okay as well. How has it been a win in wins traded away/for? Do you mean by dollar? Because in absolute terms, it is not even close. Mookie has been nearly three times Verdugo in bWAR. Downs was -.6 bWAR. Connor Wong is at .2 (after a negative last year). Verdugo might not amass in his career what Mookie did in his first three years. Hell, even Price laps Wong/Downs. He has been 1.3 bWAR in 2 years as a reliever… vs. their combined -.4. Add: I’ll go a step further: I bet Verdugo never reaches tMookie’s three-year WAR total in a Sox uniform. He would need about 9 more WAR, and I don’t think it’ll happen. That’s 3-4 years, and I bet he’s gone in that time.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 23, 2023 12:48:30 GMT -5
Things Bloom has done that I am impressed by:
- Excellent track record with his free agent signings; see julyanmorley's scorecard. - He's had three excellent trade deadlines in a row. 2020: Seabold got derailed by injuries but Pivetta alone was a great get. 2021: Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber was THE steal of that deadline. 2022: Managed to upgrade at catcher while simultaneously adding prospects and saving money on long-term payroll, a pretty remarkable trick. - Good job of finding value in the scrap heaps (Whitlock above all, but also Arroyo and Schreiber) - He extended Devers!!!
Things Bloom has done poorly in my view:
- Failure to made a legit extension offer to Bogaerts prior to the 2022 season. This is the big one: a major mistake that really makes the team worse for at least the next couple of years. - Failure to add an outfielder pre-2022 when there seemed to be an obvious need and they were going over the CBT anyway. - Not a fan of the Jansen signing, but obviously we'll see how that turns out.
On the question of the prospects he's acquired in trade returns, here's where I'm at on that: these are all probabilistic moves; if you get a bunch of guys with a 10-20% chance of making it, most of those guys won't work out - but you only need the occasional guy to work out to make the strategy worthwhile. So far I'd say they haven't succeeded as much as one could probabilistically expect. Is that Bloom's fault? Or have they just rolled snake eyes a couple times? On Downs, it's hard to blame him when it was a univeral view that he was, as patford said, a high-floor cinch to make it as a starter. Ultimately, prospects' futures are not 100% knowable; such failures just come with the territory.
Having said that, it becomes concerning if they start to look like they're systematically missing on these bets. I don't think we're there yet. But I give it one more year. If a year from now it looks like all of Wong, Winckowski, Hamilton, Binelas, Valdez, or Abreu are on track to wash out then I'll be more than a little concerned.
It is odd to credit him with saving money at the 2022 deadline but ignore the failure to get under the tax line… costing them badly when X and Evo walked. You might consider broadly how little the return has been for outgoing talent. Mookie, Beni, X, Eovaldi, etc all brought back paltry returns. CVaz is TBD. The Renfroe trade was actively bad in light of the failure yo replace him. etc. I said he saved money *on long-term payroll*. If he hadn't added McGuire they probably have to do something like bring back Vazquez at $8-10 million/year or something; instead they have C fully stocked with cost-controlled guys for the next three years.
I do have a complaint about 2022 payroll, which I stated: they should have gone over by more. It made a lot of sense for 2022 to be a year they go over the CBT (lots of dead money about to come off the books making it easy to re-set; lack of cheap young guys to fill the gaps on the roster). But then why go over by such a small amount with at least one significant hole still needing to be filled?
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Post by manfred on Jan 23, 2023 12:50:58 GMT -5
It is odd to credit him with saving money at the 2022 deadline but ignore the failure to get under the tax line… costing them badly when X and Evo walked. You might consider broadly how little the return has been for outgoing talent. Mookie, Beni, X, Eovaldi, etc all brought back paltry returns. CVaz is TBD. The Renfroe trade was actively bad in light of the failure yo replace him. etc. I said he saved money *on long-term payroll*. If he hadn't added McGuire they probably have to do something like bring back Vazquez at $8-10 million/year or something; instead they have C fully stocked with cost-controlled guys for the next three years.
I do have a complaint about 2022 payroll, which I stated: they should have gone over by more. It made a lot of sense for 2022 to be a year they go over the CBT (lots of dead money about to come off the books making it easy to re-set; lack of cheap young guys to fill the gaps on the roster). But then why go over by such a small amount with at least one significant hole still needing to be filled?
Meh. They could’ve let CVaz walk the way they let X walk. Little in return, no replacement in sight. And they could have signed a cheap catcher if necessary. I don’t see that as some masterstroke.
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