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Evaluating the Front Office and Ownership
redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 21, 2023 23:34:41 GMT -5
On Twitter James M. Dunne (Sox Prospects Managing Editor) tweets concerning Bloom: "And then Bloom did a poor job either keeping that core in place or getting value for it." In my opinion this is an unfair appraisal. Betts clearly wasn't going to stay in Boston. People will argue that but it seems plainly obvious. The situation was compounded because Betts was basically a rental. Further the contract he ended up signing with the Dodgers may well end up looking really bad. The return for Betts looks bad now but that is what happens with prospects. Hardly anyone would have predicted what has happened with Downs. In fact if I recall Downs was seen as more of a higher floor than he was a potential All-Star. More proof that even highly thought of prospects are probably going to bomb. Verdugo has been pretty good and may yet impress more than he has. Wong has been about what was expected maybe a bit better. Benintendi was completely lost and what he has done since is not very impressive. A Gold Glove in LF is kind of like first place is a fall on your face contest. If Gold Gloves weren't awarded by position a LF would never make the top 20. He has hit for a bit of an average but with no power to speak of. After hitting .254 with close to zero power the Yankees made little or no effort to keep him. Bloom again gambled on prospects who haven't turned out although Winckowski may prove to be useful. A number of people here feel the Red Sox never wanted to sign a long term deal with Bogaerts. That is my impression as well. The mistake Bloom made there was not trading Bogaerts at the deadline but it's highly debatable as to what they might have gotten in return. And of course at the deadline the Sox were in Wild Card contention with several key pieces due to return. In the end the Sox losing Bogaerts is no different from the Dodgers losing Trea Turner and Corey Seager getting nothing in return. Turner and Seager are both younger than Bogaerts as well as being better hitters and better fielders. The loss of both Turner and Seager may well have something to do with the Betts contract the Dodgers are saddled with. Totally disagree with just about everything you posted. The Dodgers got the value of Turner and Seager playing on teams that had legit playoff aspirations, something the Six really didn't have. About the only thing I agree with you was the Sox not really wanting to extend Bogaerts. They wanted Devers or felt pressured into giving him something resembling a fair market offer as an extension offer, and surprise, he took it. If they did likewise with Bogaerts, say 7 years 200 million extension offer in early 2022 or maybe even 6 and 175 or something like that (just like 5 and 110 for Lester), odds are he would have stayed. Betts made it clear if the Sox paid market value he would have stayed. They were about 60 million off, as I surmised Trout's contract was his goal. There are players that can't wait to get the hell out of Boston, but I dont think any of Betts, Bigaerts, or Devers fell into that category, though. I think each enjoyed or enjoys their time in Boston, which is a good thing. You'd want your best players to like playing in Boston. And that LF gold glove thing comment is silly. You must not have seem Yaz in LF. He wasn't some bozo who couldn't play defense that didnt matter. He helped kill the A's in the 1975 ALCS with his defense. He was impactful in LF. As far as Benintendi goes, he had a bad 2nd half in 2019 and an injury riddled 40 ABs in 2020. They sold low on him and as it turned out got virtually nothing for him. These are very fair critiques of the front office.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 21, 2023 23:59:13 GMT -5
For me, I'm more inclined to see the 2023 team performance to make a call. In general, I'm pro Bloom.
I think the rule changes are going to impact baseball a lot more than people think. Similar to lowering the mound in the late 60's (the Bob Gibson adjustment), the impact will be immediate. As far as I can see, pretty much the entire offseason has rotated around that and 'clutchness'. On that score, I don't see any other team close to the Red Sox, we're way ahead of the curve.
No more major injuries, we're a 94+ win team, but I do think there will likely be 1 substantial trade.
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Post by orion09 on Jan 22, 2023 6:10:40 GMT -5
I think it’s perfectly fine for fans to not be happy about the FO, don’t think anyone will deny that. That being said, there are a handful of reasons why that display was embarrassing and pretty dumb, the most of which and it’s not something I’ve seen anyone bring it up in this thread (that I admittedly skimmed the last bit) is that it makes it way less likely they continue to do what seemed like a really cool fan event. I think it’s a good thing for John Henry to have to face strong, visceral fan displeasure at losing Betts and Bogaerts. I’m sure he has cadres of media analysts bringing him sentiment reports, but it’s different to go on stage and have to deal with unhappy fans face to face. Frankly, if the media and fans hadn’t been ready to storm Fenway, I’m not sure the Devers extension would have gotten done.
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Post by chud on Jan 22, 2023 9:41:19 GMT -5
The best part of sports is at the end of the day, it's a "show me" business...In most businesses, there's some tolerance for when things go wrong, personal feelings sometimes cloud cold hearted business moves, metrics can be turned to explain losses, unforeseen impediments can explain short term failure etc...In sports, although there's like some of this, it's a clear production business...WAR this, exit velocity that, FRAA vs. OAA...despite all of that, at the end of the day, how the team did will decide a regime's fate.
We can argue the sustainability of Dave Dombrowski's philosophy, but 3 Division titles and a WS is some pretty good brass tax....Theo of course...Cherington and his WS were great until his desperation FA plunge ultimately did him in...Bottom line, if you think Bloom is doing a good job and this team tanks this year, he'll be gone...If you think Bloom is not doing a good job (full discloser, that's me) and the team does great, he'll get more time....But based on the team construction to date, I don't see how he survives past this season.
Don't discount how impactful a fans voice can be in this process. There are a few facets to enterprise risk mgt. which an org like the Red Sox I'm sure adhere to and where the fans play a big role. Financial Risk, fans can impact the team's purse strings by not showing up and not buying NESN...And Reputationall Risk, now showing up hurts the brand, booing owners/execs almost to the point of not being able to speak,, hurts the brand....While I'm not the booing type, it's impactful in such a large and personal public setting.
Ultimately, owners/execs showing their face in public is important, in good times and bad. The Red Sox fall into this weird public/private collaborative...privately owned but completely publicy supported in a very intimate way that goes way beyond heading to the local Kohl's and buying their merchandise. Being a smart fan base, I can't see how the message on the Betts trade was that the farm system was too bare to sign a then 28yr old superstar to say a 12yr contract putting him at age 40 at the end but still at age 30 by the time they're now saying they can make that type of contract as proof by being ok signing the Devers deal...Devers I think being 37 or 38 at the end...this makes zero sense and seems like either very bad logic for which to make that decision or very bad spin...and ultimately, the former is more concerning than the latter to me...and they wonder whey they're getting booed while that's the best they could come up with after 2yrs of no comms....sheesh...
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Post by incandenza on Jan 22, 2023 10:27:20 GMT -5
This is probably a naive question but... what were those fans booing about anyway? I would get it if they hadn't yet extended Devers, but... they have. Are they still upset about Bogaerts leaving? Did they want to match the Padres' offer? Do they not approve of the team's other additions this offseason? And they just mad that the team had a terrible run of injuries and only won 78 games last season?
It seemed like the "Red Sox adrift" narrative was all built around the premise that they don't keep any of their homegrown stars, which very understandably makes fans upset. But now they've gone and done just that with their most important current star. So I'm legitimately not sure what the anger - not just disgruntlement, but *anger* - is about exactly.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jan 22, 2023 10:39:23 GMT -5
There is definitely a Parallel universe out there where we traded / let go of Sale/Bogaerts/JD/Eovaldi and had extended Betts and just now Devers
I think that was the perplexing thing when it all happened. They had so much slack to work with after winning in 2018 that if we had just traded those older guys or near FA guys at the 2019 deadline fans wouldn’t have batted too much of an eye
Especially if they sold it as that was what they had to do to keep Betts
I think teams like the Sox are comfortable having two contracts like Devers on the books but it has to be for the right people. Devers and Betts make sense, Bogaerts was good but he is not a player I’d dish a contract like that out too.
It’s all about making sure we sign a manny to a manny Ramirez contract as opposed to Carl Crawford to a Manny Ramirez like contract, as an older example
And Signed at age 28 or younger. Judge is really good but the Yankees aren’t going to know what to do with that contract in about 5 years from now
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Post by Guidas on Jan 22, 2023 10:47:47 GMT -5
For me, I'm more inclined to see the 2023 team performance to make a call. In general, I'm pro Bloom. I think the rule changes are going to impact baseball a lot more than people think. Similar to lowering the mound in the late 60's (the Bob Gibson adjustment), the impact will be immediate. As far as I can see, pretty much the entire offseason has rotated around that and 'clutchness'. On that score, I don't see any other team close to the Red Sox, we're way ahead of the curve. No more major injuries, we're a 94+ win team, but I do think there will likely be 1 substantial trade. So you think this is currently a 94+ win team without Story?
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redsox04071318champs
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Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 16,489
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 22, 2023 10:47:56 GMT -5
This is probably a naive question but... what were those fans booing about anyway? I would get it if they hadn't yet extended Devers, but... they have. Are they still upset about Bogaerts leaving? Did they want to match the Padres' offer? Do they not approve of the team's other additions this offseason? And they just mad that the team had a terrible run of injuries and only won 78 games last season? It seemed like the "Red Sox adrift" narrative was all built around the premise that they don't keep any of their homegrown stars, which very understandably makes fans upset. But now they've gone and done just that with their most important current star. So I'm legitimately not sure what the anger - not just disgruntlement, but *anger* - is about exactly. They were pissed that Xander left, but probably not about not matching the Padres. Likely they're pissed about a lack of a real extension offer that let him get to free agency. As they showed with Devers, if the Sox want to make a real extension offer, they're capable of doing so if they really want to. They obviously didn't. And now they're out one of the greatest SS they've had in their history. Then Mookie was broached by Bloom and how the 84 win team was driving off a cliff and they had to trade Betts. Well, you look at the franchise and they didnt exactly thrive in 2022, finishing last with 78 wins while letting a rare 5 tool player get away in a trade that brought back an averageish player, a busted prospect and a backup catcher. You can argue the nuance but those are facts that most fans see right in front their faces and they responded. I certainly understand where they're coming from.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 22, 2023 11:13:07 GMT -5
The best part of sports is at the end of the day, it's a "show me" business...In most businesses, there's some tolerance for when things go wrong, personal feelings sometimes cloud cold hearted business moves, metrics can be turned to explain losses, unforeseen impediments can explain short term failure etc...In sports, although there's like some of this, it's a clear production business...WAR this, exit velocity that, FRAA vs. OAA...despite all of that, at the end of the day, how the team did will decide a regime's fate. We can argue the sustainability of Dave Dombrowski's philosophy, but 3 Division titles and a WS is some pretty good brass tax....Theo of course...Cherington and his WS were great until his desperation FA plunge ultimately did him in...Bottom line, if you think Bloom is doing a good job and this team tanks this year, he'll be gone...If you think Bloom is not doing a good job (full discloser, that's me) and the team does great, he'll get more time....But based on the team construction to date, I don't see how he survives past this season. Don't discount how impactful a fans voice can be in this process. There are a few facets to enterprise risk mgt. which an org like the Red Sox I'm sure adhere to and where the fans play a big role. Financial Risk, fans can impact the team's purse strings by not showing up and not buying NESN...And Reputationall Risk, now showing up hurts the brand, booing owners/execs almost to the point of not being able to speak,, hurts the brand....While I'm not the booing type, it's impactful in such a large and personal public setting.Ultimately, owners/execs showing their face in public is important, in good times and bad. The Red Sox fall into this weird public/private collaborative...privately owned but completely publicy supported in a very intimate way that goes way beyond heading to the local Kohl's and buying their merchandise. Being a smart fan base, I can't see how the message on the Betts trade was that the farm system was too bare to sign a then 28yr old superstar to say a 12yr contract putting him at age 40 at the end but still at age 30 by the time they're now saying they can make that type of contract as proof by being ok signing the Devers deal...Devers I think being 37 or 38 at the end...this makes zero sense and seems like either very bad logic for which to make that decision or very bad spin...and ultimately, the former is more concerning than the latter to me...and they wonder whey they're getting booed while that's the best they could come up with after 2yrs of no comms....sheesh... This is such an important point that often gets lost here. People seem to forget that the fans are the customers and that most of them are not analytics-driven people who will put themselves into mathematical contortions to "prove" how, even after losing popular players, a 78 win team was "actually" a 92 win team if they didn't have a ton of injuries (fewer injuries than at least one other AL team that did make the playoffs, however, and two playoff teams overall). That's theoretically true but didn't happen in reality. Outcome: the customers got pissed off and penalized the team with reduced rating and empty seats. This was followed by a winter of great expectations because "Bloom finally has a fully-operational death star of money and a flush free agent class!" and then fans see the Sox lose another beloved (and very productive) player and miss out on virtually every other publicly declared target and high-value free agent except for an older ex-closer/reliever and a Japanese player who more than half the league believes is a 4th OF. In the fans' eyes, every one else they got is an add-on, a has been or a never was. And then Story gets hurt. At this point, folks are probably like, "Don't let Chris Sale anywhere near a bicycle!" Oh, and ownership responded by making the highest ticket prices in baseball...even higher. Seven months from now, all this fan sentiment may prove to be misplaced as the Sox power their way into the playoffs. But right now, at least to the vast bulk of the fans (who, btw, pay the bills), this does not look like a team that can contend as the AL East division winner, or, to many, even a Wild Card team. Yet this is the line ownership and the front office keeps toeing. So until they prove that this strategy of featureless statistical projection heroes can actually win, the Red Sox ownership and front office face a different sort of projection: put-up or shut up and lose more money. That's their reality.
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Post by manfred on Jan 22, 2023 11:15:13 GMT -5
This is probably a naive question but... what were those fans booing about anyway? I would get it if they hadn't yet extended Devers, but... they have. Are they still upset about Bogaerts leaving? Did they want to match the Padres' offer? Do they not approve of the team's other additions this offseason? And they just mad that the team had a terrible run of injuries and only won 78 games last season? It seemed like the "Red Sox adrift" narrative was all built around the premise that they don't keep any of their homegrown stars, which very understandably makes fans upset. But now they've gone and done just that with their most important current star. So I'm legitimately not sure what the anger - not just disgruntlement, but *anger* - is about exactly. C’mon. You may not *agree*, but you get why folks are booing. Just a few things: 2 last place finishes in 3 years. Folks can say “2 games from the WS!” but a) that team wasn’t great during the regular season and b) close is sort of meaningless. But bigger: we *just* lost X. Are you saying folks should be over it? Yes they signed Devers, but that is not a bonus… it is to be expected. We also released Jeter Downs this winter, which makes official that the Mookie trade sucked. Even stipulating he had to go… the return was bad. So right there you have two prime, HOF-caliber players the Sox botched. And looking ahead… some folks can see the glass half full, but it is very fair to look at this roster and say WTF are they doing? You have questioned a number of the big moves, and you are more of an optimist than others. You know why they are booing. I think the Mookie explanation was insulting. To go back and say we had a 26ish-year-old star but couldn’t build around him is basically saying “we knew we were going to be bad” (spoiler: they were). But that wasn’t the story at the time. “Compete every year,” blah blah. It seems dishonest, frankly. And in the future, when we are supposed to take the FO at its word, it is good to remember that tacit capitulation. Add: here is one more thing I suspect irks people: the overall model. This board is full of math people who don’t get overly attached to guys. Fine. But I bet most fans do — continuity matters. So while some might look at the cycling of shorterm contracts as flexibility and good business, many of us simply lose interest. Do I care about one year of Hunter Renfroe? By the time I start to like him, he’s gone. Do I feel attached to Adam Duvall? Nope. Maybe he’ll win me over… then he’ll be gone. CVaz may not be worth the money, may not be a great player… but people liked him. Benny, too. Dumping beloved players for platoons, temps, etc… even if statistical improvements — doesn’t satisfy folks who are loyal to players.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 22, 2023 11:34:51 GMT -5
This is probably a naive question but... what were those fans booing about anyway? I would get it if they hadn't yet extended Devers, but... they have. Are they still upset about Bogaerts leaving? Did they want to match the Padres' offer? Do they not approve of the team's other additions this offseason? And they just mad that the team had a terrible run of injuries and only won 78 games last season? It seemed like the "Red Sox adrift" narrative was all built around the premise that they don't keep any of their homegrown stars, which very understandably makes fans upset. But now they've gone and done just that with their most important current star. So I'm legitimately not sure what the anger - not just disgruntlement, but *anger* - is about exactly. C’mon. You may not *agree*, but you get why folks are booing. Just a few things: 2 last place finishes in 3 years. Folks can say “2 games from the WS!” but a) that team wasn’t great during the regular season and b) close is sort of meaningless. But bigger: we *just* lost X. Are you saying folks should be over it? Yes they signed Devers, but that is not a bonus… it is to be expected. We also released Jeter Downs this winter, which makes official that the Mookie trade sucked. Even stipulating he had to go… the return was bad. So right there you have two prime, HOF-caliber players the Sox botched. And looking ahead… some folks can see the glass half full, but it is very fair to look at this roster and say WTF are they doing? You have questioned a number of the big moves, and you are more of an optimist than others. You know why they are booing. I wasn't even saying whether I agreed or disagreed. I was just legitimately not sure where the pulse of these fans is at right now. My own personal journey this offseason has been extreme frustration at the Bogaerts thing, followed by like 75% of that frustration being dissipated by the Devers extension.
I'm not a fan of booing in general, but if fans are still frustrated about Bogaerts then I get that. If the fans are frustrated about "2 last place finishes in 3 years" and laying that at Bloom's feet then I think they're being dumb. Bloom, of course, can't state publicly why and how Dombrowski screwed up the team's long-term outlook in such a way that they both couldn't sign Betts and were destined for mediocrity. But I would think that for those fans who liked Dombrowski's approach - they did, after all, have that wonderful 2018 season - they could be a little more accepting of the price he paid to win that championship.
(lol jk, I would never expect fans to have that broad a view on the situation)
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Post by patford on Jan 22, 2023 12:20:59 GMT -5
C’mon. You may not *agree*, but you get why folks are booing. Just a few things: 2 last place finishes in 3 years. Folks can say “2 games from the WS!” but a) that team wasn’t great during the regular season and b) close is sort of meaningless. But bigger: we *just* lost X. Are you saying folks should be over it? Yes they signed Devers, but that is not a bonus… it is to be expected. We also released Jeter Downs this winter, which makes official that the Mookie trade sucked. Even stipulating he had to go… the return was bad. So right there you have two prime, HOF-caliber players the Sox botched. And looking ahead… some folks can see the glass half full, but it is very fair to look at this roster and say WTF are they doing? You have questioned a number of the big moves, and you are more of an optimist than others. You know why they are booing. I wasn't even saying whether I agreed or disagreed. I was just legitimately not sure where the pulse of these fans is at right now. My own personal journey this offseason has been extreme frustration at the Bogaerts thing, followed by like 75% of that frustration being dissipated by the Devers extension.
I'm not a fan of booing in general, but if fans are still frustrated about Bogaerts then I get that. If the fans are frustrated about "2 last place finishes in 3 years" and laying that at Bloom's feet then I think they're being dumb. Bloom, of course, can't state publicly why and how Dombrowski screwed up the team's long-term outlook in such a way that they both couldn't sign Betts and were destined for mediocrity. But I would think that for those fans who liked Dombrowski's approach - they did, after all, have that wonderful 2018 season - they could be a little more accepting of the price he paid to win that championship.
(lol jk, I would never expect fans to have that broad a view on the situation)
The fact is in 2021 the Sox damn near made it to the WS. They beat the Yankees and Tampa and they were up on Houston and not remotely looking outclassed.
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Post by patford on Jan 22, 2023 12:49:10 GMT -5
The core had to either be traded or signed. The Betts and Bogaerts deals are both long term and it's more likely than not ownership and not explicitly Bloom wants to avoid 10 year plus contracts. As there is no hard cap in MLB and there was an owner with bottomless pockets who didn't care about the luxury tax or any other monetary consideration a team could hypothetically buy every free agent on the market. The owner not the GM makes that call. The return for Betts does not look good but how can it be judged? A fan can't just make up scenarios where in return for Betts the Sox got XYZ rather than ABC. Betts was basically a rental and we don't even know what the other offers were. I don't know how many times I have seen fan proposals on this forum along the lines of, "Why don't we trade; Walter, Murphy, Lugo, Hickey and Bonaci for Mike Trout. Those sort of fantasy land scenarios aren't reality. My guess is Bloom got the best deal he could find at the time. As far a "Benny" goes he was extremely mediocre with the Yankees last year. They didn't look to retain him. The return the Sox got turned out to be a bunch of guys who ended up not panning out. That's the role of the dice with prospects. I'm sure we all remember how hyped we were just a short time ago about Duran? Or remember when Gilberto Jimenez showed up for Spring Training looking like "an NFL free safety" and we were as excited about him as we are Miguel Bleis? This is why there is a strategy to load up on prospects. Anyhow. Is there anyone here right now who really wants Benintendi back? Who thinks he would be a difference maker?
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Post by manfred on Jan 22, 2023 13:12:17 GMT -5
The core had to either be traded or signed. The Betts and Bogaerts deals are both long term and it's more likely than not ownership and not explicitly Bloom wants to avoid 10 year plus contracts. As there is no hard cap in MLB and there was an owner with bottomless pockets who didn't care about the luxury tax or any other monetary consideration a team could hypothetically buy every free agent on the market. The owner not the GM makes that call. The return for Betts does not look good but how can it be judged? A fan can't just make up scenarios where in return for Betts the Sox got XYZ rather than ABC. Betts was basically a rental and we don't even know what the other offers were. I don't know how many times I have seen fan proposals on this forum along the lines of, "Why don't we trade; Walter, Murphy, Lugo, Hickey and Bonaci for Mike Trout. Those sort of fantasy land scenarios aren't reality. My guess is Bloom got the best deal he could find at the time. As far a "Benny" goes he was extremely mediocre with the Yankees last year. They didn't look to retain him. The return the Sox got turned out to be a bunch of guys who ended up not panning out. That's the role of the dice with prospects. I'm sure we all remember how hyped we were just a short time ago about Duran? Or remember when Gilberto Jimenez showed up for Spring Training looking like "an NFL free safety" and we were as excited about him as we are Miguel Bleis? This is why there is a strategy to load up on prospects. Anyhow. Is there anyone here right now who really wants Benintendi back? Who thinks he would be a difference maker? It is not a fan’s job to make good trades. But a FO is judged on them. Saying “hey, who knows what we could have gotten” absolves everyone of responsibility for bad trades. In that case, we *do* know they subbed a current major league arm for a guy they just dumped. So at minimum, they made it worse. But overall, there is zero % chance with a player like Mookie, X, even Benny, there is literally one offer on the table with no wiggle room. The point gas been made before, but if they sold Mookie because they were in a bad position, why hold everyone else? Doesn’t that just make getting 4th rounders for X and Eovaldi, nothing for JDM, very little for Benny etc even more painful? Think of how much talent from the 2018 team is gone with almost nothing to show for it… except the financial flexibility to start… Duvall in CF? Turner at DH? Paxton and Kluber in the rotation? Temps all. So all that talent out, much less in, and *none* of those losses contributed to the deepening of the system.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jan 22, 2023 14:06:38 GMT -5
The only offer that we seemed to seriously be debating was the Padres which would have come with Wil Meyers and a decent amount of his contract at the time.
So yeah there was a situation where we could have had Meyers, Naylor, Cal Quantrill, and “a top prospect”
I have no idea what pool of prospects the Sox could have selected from. But while Naylor and quantrill are young and shown promise they aren’t exactly studs or without questions still.
My thinking is if the Betts trade was happening this off-season the dynamic of the NL West would currently have created a 3 team bidding war out there for him.
For the dodgers offer I know Gonsolins name was being mentioned a quite a bit at the time but we went with Downs and Wong.
In hindsight you wonder if Wil Smith instead of downs/wong could have been pushed for. It probably could have at the time but obviously we want that now knowing the outcomes
Bloom has to regret letting downs go now after the story injury because it would have been a situation of yeah why not put him out there for a while and see what happens.
I’ll put it this way rather have had a 24 year old downs on the 40 man one more year rather than a mid 30s Brasier
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Post by Guidas on Jan 22, 2023 14:36:01 GMT -5
C’mon. You may not *agree*, but you get why folks are booing. Just a few things: 2 last place finishes in 3 years. Folks can say “2 games from the WS!” but a) that team wasn’t great during the regular season and b) close is sort of meaningless. But bigger: we *just* lost X. Are you saying folks should be over it? Yes they signed Devers, but that is not a bonus… it is to be expected. We also released Jeter Downs this winter, which makes official that the Mookie trade sucked. Even stipulating he had to go… the return was bad. So right there you have two prime, HOF-caliber players the Sox botched. And looking ahead… some folks can see the glass half full, but it is very fair to look at this roster and say WTF are they doing? You have questioned a number of the big moves, and you are more of an optimist than others. You know why they are booing. I wasn't even saying whether I agreed or disagreed. I was just legitimately not sure where the pulse of these fans is at right now. My own personal journey this offseason has been extreme frustration at the Bogaerts thing, followed by like 75% of that frustration being dissipated by the Devers extension.
I'm not a fan of booing in general, but if fans are still frustrated about Bogaerts then I get that. If the fans are frustrated about "2 last place finishes in 3 years" and laying that at Bloom's feet then I think they're being dumb. Bloom, of course, can't state publicly why and how Dombrowski screwed up the team's long-term outlook in such a way that they both couldn't sign Betts and were destined for mediocrity. But I would think that for those fans who liked Dombrowski's approach - they did, after all, have that wonderful 2018 season - they could be a little more accepting of the price he paid to win that championship.
(lol jk, I would never expect fans to have that broad a view on the situation)
The Devil's Advocate position on this is similar to the explanation for last year: If Sale and Eovaldi had just stayed healthy in 2019, the Sox would've had somewhere between 6 and 9 more wins, putting them around 90-93 (or better) wins. Dombrowski's bet would've paid off. As for where Dombrowski "left" the Sox, he left them with the best core in team history playing at the MLB level, three division titles, a World Series title and significant talent in the minors through sound drafts and international signings, albeit at very low levels in the minors. In fact, I would contend he left the team in much better shape than Bloom will leave it if he's canned after this his fourth year. As for signing Mookie, I believe that's separate argument. I reject the argument that the Sox "couldn't" do it. They could've, they just didn't want to. This assumes that they did sign off on the Sale and Eovaldi signings, which, if you listen to the podcast Speier did with Keith Law is exactly what they did. In that moment they decided to back Dombrowski and sign those two pitchers meaning they knew they would not be able to sign Mookie. They could've overrode him, but they did not. That's all on ownership and they STILL could've signed Mookie if they wanted to. That they did not is simply ownership deciding the player was not worth the investment. Much like Judge, Mookie was the face of the franchise, and much like Judge, he may never earn out the contract on the field. But other revenue streams from having the player may even out these contracts or close. We will never know because the Red Sox, Yankees and Dodgers will never open their books. But consider that, in NYY's case, they signed that massive contract despite them having the Cole and Stanton contracts already on the books for just as long. They made a business decision that it was worth keeping the face of the franchise and milking the near term productivity to put butts in seats and generate revenues other ways. In the past under this ownership group, the Sox matched or exceeding NYY's spending. Not any more. Under Bloom the new strategy seems to be not trying to win the Division, but rather building a team that could "compete"...for the fourth, fifth or sixth seed.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jan 22, 2023 14:42:39 GMT -5
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Post by terriblehondo on Jan 22, 2023 15:03:05 GMT -5
This is probably a naive question but... what were those fans booing about anyway? I would get it if they hadn't yet extended Devers, but... they have. Are they still upset about Bogaerts leaving? Did they want to match the Padres' offer? Do they not approve of the team's other additions this offseason? And they just mad that the team had a terrible run of injuries and only won 78 games last season? It seemed like the "Red Sox adrift" narrative was all built around the premise that they don't keep any of their homegrown stars, which very understandably makes fans upset. But now they've gone and done just that with their most important current star. So I'm legitimately not sure what the anger - not just disgruntlement, but *anger* - is about exactly. It is impossible to say why an individual is angry without knowing the person. I can tell you why I was pissed. Going over the cap last year and only getting a 4th round pick for X and Eovaldi. Which nobody will be able to convince me was anything but idiotic. As far as the booing some people lack patience and maybe they think this team will be worse or equal to last years team. I am not big on booing but I don't get what the big deal is if someone is/was booing. If they put a winning team on the field the booing will stop. If they don't win the booing will be worse. At this point in time I am still willing to give Bloom 2 more years to see if his vision and his talent assessment is going to work. Fingers crossed that we trade and keep the right prospects.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 22, 2023 15:08:09 GMT -5
I wasn't even saying whether I agreed or disagreed. I was just legitimately not sure where the pulse of these fans is at right now. My own personal journey this offseason has been extreme frustration at the Bogaerts thing, followed by like 75% of that frustration being dissipated by the Devers extension.
I'm not a fan of booing in general, but if fans are still frustrated about Bogaerts then I get that. If the fans are frustrated about "2 last place finishes in 3 years" and laying that at Bloom's feet then I think they're being dumb. Bloom, of course, can't state publicly why and how Dombrowski screwed up the team's long-term outlook in such a way that they both couldn't sign Betts and were destined for mediocrity. But I would think that for those fans who liked Dombrowski's approach - they did, after all, have that wonderful 2018 season - they could be a little more accepting of the price he paid to win that championship.
(lol jk, I would never expect fans to have that broad a view on the situation)
The Devil's Advocate position on this is similar to the explanation for last year: If Sale and Eovaldi had just stayed healthy in 2019, the Sox would've had somewhere between 6 and 9 more wins, putting them around 90-93 (or better) wins. Dombrowski's bet would've paid off. As for where Dombrowski "left" the Sox, he left them with the best core in team history playing at the MLB level, three division titles, a World Series title and significant talent in the minors through sound drafts and international signings, albeit at very low levels in the minors. In fact, I would contend he left the team in much better shape than Bloom will leave it if he's canned after this his fourth year. Listen, what I'm saying is that Dombrowski's approach worked as it was intended. He inherited an absolute gold mine when he got here, a stockpile of young talent the likes of which few teams ever amass: Betts, Bogaerts, JBJ, Benintendi, Vazquez, ERodriguez, and a flush farm system even beyond those guys (Devers, Kopech, Moncada, Margot, Espinoza, et al.). What Dombrowski did was to take those assets and build the best possible team he could - the very go-all-in approach that a lot of people here advocate for, at least when the team's situation allows for it. And this worked! They didn't just win it all in 2018; they put together the best single season of any team this century.
There's two things to criticize him for, in my view. The first, I think, is fairly undeniable: he absolutely mangled things in the post-2018 offseason. Maybe they could have extended Betts, in theory, or maybe it was never going to happen, but with all the money he committed to Sale and Eovaldi that offseason (on top of what he'd already committed to Price) he essentially made it impossible. Needless to say, the Sale extension has been a debacle just on its own terms.
The other thing to criticze him for is something reasonable people can disagree on. My view is that his approach from the beginning was flawed. Rather than spending that whole aforementioned gold mine on building a juggernaut all at once I would have preferred him to spread those assets out over a longer time horizon. I.e., don't trade so many prospects; try to add prospects here or there (he never added a single one through trades). This is especially the case given the lurking donut hole in the farm system at the time, the fallow stretch that is mostly attributable to the Cherington years and which we are still suffering from. In my ideal scenario, the team would have been a little weaker in 2016-2018, but still would have been very good; and then Betts would have been extended and the team would have been a little stronger, or maybe a lot stronger, from 2020 through the present.
Again, reasonable people can disagree with me on that last paragraph. But if you do then you really ought to recognize how much of the team's current predicament is a direct or indirect consequence of Dombroski's approach. And you ought to be fine with that - we won in 2018 and flags fly forever! Dombrowski did his job! But consistency demands accepting the price the team has paid for that. Just don't tell me that the team Dombrowski left in his wake - multiple huge dead-money salaries; a franchise player cruising toward free agency; a farm system near the very bottom of the league - was in good shape.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jan 22, 2023 15:26:09 GMT -5
This is probably a naive question but... what were those fans booing about anyway? I would get it if they hadn't yet extended Devers, but... they have. Are they still upset about Bogaerts leaving? Did they want to match the Padres' offer? Do they not approve of the team's other additions this offseason? And they just mad that the team had a terrible run of injuries and only won 78 games last season? It seemed like the "Red Sox adrift" narrative was all built around the premise that they don't keep any of their homegrown stars, which very understandably makes fans upset. But now they've gone and done just that with their most important current star. So I'm legitimately not sure what the anger - not just disgruntlement, but *anger* - is about exactly. It is impossible to say why an individual is angry without knowing the person. I can tell you why I was pissed. Going over the cap last year and only getting a 4th round pick for X and Eovaldi. Which nobody will be able to convince me was anything but idiotic. As far as the booing some people lack patience and maybe they think this team will be worse or equal to last years team. I am not big on booing but I don't get what the big deal is if someone is/was booing. If they put a winning team on the field the booing will stop. If they don't win the booing will be worse. At this point in time I am still willing to give Bloom 2 more years to see if his vision and his talent assessment is going to work. Fingers crossed that we trade and keep the right prospects.I think he displayed good judgement by giving up on Downs, one of his guys.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 22, 2023 16:21:28 GMT -5
Listen, what I'm saying is that Dombrowski's approach worked as it was intended. He inherited an absolute gold mine when he got here, a stockpile of young talent the likes of which few teams ever amass: Betts, Bogaerts, JBJ, Benintendi, Vazquez, ERodriguez, and a flush farm system even beyond those guys (Devers, Kopech, Moncada, Margot, Espinoza, et al.). What Dombrowski did was to take those assets and build the best possible team he could - the very go-all-in approach that a lot of people here advocate for, at least when the team's situation allows for it. And this worked! They didn't just win it all in 2018; they put together the best single season of any team this century.
There's two things to criticize him for, in my view. The first, I think, is fairly undeniable: he absolutely mangled things in the post-2018 offseason. Maybe they could have extended Betts, in theory, or maybe it was never going to happen, but with all the money he committed to Sale and Eovaldi that offseason (on top of what he'd already committed to Price) he essentially made it impossible. Needless to say, the Sale extension has been a debacle just on its own terms.
The other thing to criticze him for is something reasonable people can disagree on. My view is that his approach from the beginning was flawed. Rather than spending that whole aforementioned gold mine on building a juggernaut all at once I would have preferred him to spread those assets out over a longer time horizon. I.e., don't trade so many prospects; try to add prospects here or there (he never added a single one through trades). This is especially the case given the lurking donut hole in the farm system, the fallow stretch that is mostly attributable to the Cherington years and which we are still suffering from. In my ideal scenario, the team would have been a little weaker in 2016-2018, but still would have been very good; and then Betts would have been extended and the team would have been a little stronger from 2020 through the present.
Again, reasonable people can disagree with me on that last paragraph. But if you do then you really ought to recognize how much of the team's current predicament is a direct or indirect consequence of Dombroski's approach. And you ought to be fine with that - we won in 2018 and flags fly forever! Dombrowski did his job! But consistency demands accepting the price the team has paid for that. Just don't tell me that the team Dombrowski left in his wake - multiple huge dead-money salaries; a franchise player cruising toward free agency; a farm system near the very bottom of the league - was in good shape.
I most of what you've said is fair even if I would nit pick a little, but the part I have trouble with is the bolded piece. I mean, who is it that he traded that you want back? I keep looking for the Anderson-for-Bagwell trade and I just can't find it. Here's the list: www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/04/revisiting-dave-dombrowskis-red-sox-trades.htmlLooking through the list, there's a lot of guys he traded that looked good on prospect lists at the time that never really panned out. There was some talent given up in the Sale/Kimbrel/Thornton trades, but nobody that raises to the level of genuine sellers remorse. The rest of the traded players never panned out at all. None of this really justifies the "Trader Dave" narrative that he gets tagged with. Not to get too far off topic, but something that gets overlooked about the prospect pool under DD, especially in 2018, is how dismal the Sox were at drafting from 2011-2015. Other than Benintendi and maybe Kopech, that's 5 draft years prior to DD's tenure that as far as I can see produced no impactful major league players. Prospect lists are largely built on decisions made 3-5 years prior so while DD had some flaws it's not entirely fair to critique/praise the current GM for the current prospect list. He shouldn't have traded Margot; he shouldn't have acquired Kimbrel at all. Margot would have been a very useful player for them over the last several years.
He gave up a lot for Sale. I lean just this side of feeling that it was worth it, but we dodged a huge bullet by the White Sox choosing Moncada over Devers as the primary piece of that deal. (Even so, Moncada and Kopech would have been nice to keep as well.)
Travis Shaw and Mauricio Dubon would have been helpful to have around, and they got nothing out of that deal. (Never trade for relievers...)
This also leaves out that he traded Santiago Espinal for Steve Pearce (which is not one I regret, on balance, given what Pearce did for them in 2018, but it was another subtraction from the farm system that is hurting them in the present).
So: Margot, Shaw, and Dubon was the value he gave up needlessly. Kopech, Moncada, and Espinal are talents that he gave up that were arguably worth it.
The other half of the story, like I mentioned, is that he literally never added a single prospect of any significance through trades.
I agree (and mentioned myself) that the seeds for the team's recent lack of good young talent were planted in the early 2010s under Cherington; but Dombrowski did nothing to avert that problem, and in fact made it worse.
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Post by manfred on Jan 22, 2023 17:13:08 GMT -5
I most of what you've said is fair even if I would nit pick a little, but the part I have trouble with is the bolded piece. I mean, who is it that he traded that you want back? I keep looking for the Anderson-for-Bagwell trade and I just can't find it. Here's the list: www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/04/revisiting-dave-dombrowskis-red-sox-trades.htmlLooking through the list, there's a lot of guys he traded that looked good on prospect lists at the time that never really panned out. There was some talent given up in the Sale/Kimbrel/Thornton trades, but nobody that raises to the level of genuine sellers remorse. The rest of the traded players never panned out at all. None of this really justifies the "Trader Dave" narrative that he gets tagged with. Not to get too far off topic, but something that gets overlooked about the prospect pool under DD, especially in 2018, is how dismal the Sox were at drafting from 2011-2015. Other than Benintendi and maybe Kopech, that's 5 draft years prior to DD's tenure that as far as I can see produced no impactful major league players. Prospect lists are largely built on decisions made 3-5 years prior so while DD had some flaws it's not entirely fair to critique/praise the current GM for the current prospect list. He shouldn't have traded Margot; he shouldn't have acquired Kimbrel at all. Margot would have been a very useful player for them over the last several years.
He gave up a lot for Sale. I lean just this side of feeling that it was worth it, but we dodged a huge bullet by the White Sox choosing Moncada over Devers as the primary piece of that deal. (Even so, Moncada and Kopech would have been nice to keep as well.)
Travis Shaw and Mauricio Dubon would have been helpful to have around, and they got nothing out of that deal. (Never trade for relievers...)
This also leaves out that he traded Santiago Espinal for Steve Pearce (which is not one I regret, on balance, given what Pearce did for them in 2018, but it was another subtraction from the farm system that is hurting them in the present).
So: Margot, Shaw, and Dubon was the value he gave up needlessly. Kopech, Moncada, and Espinal are talents that he gave up that were arguably worth it.
The other half of the story, like I mentioned, is that he literally never added a single prospect of any significance through trades.
I agree (and mentioned myself) that the seeds for the team's recent lack of good young talent were planted in the early 2010s under Cherington; but Dombrowski did nothing to avert that problem, and in fact made it worse.
If the big losses are Margot, Shaw, and Dubon… I’d call it a great record. This seems a bit nitpicky. I assume you are trying to keep this only to prospects, but if you want to compare trade records big picture, I think DD trounces CB. And what significant prospect has CB added by trade? Jeter Downs?
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Post by incandenza on Jan 22, 2023 17:39:55 GMT -5
He shouldn't have traded Margot; he shouldn't have acquired Kimbrel at all. Margot would have been a very useful player for them over the last several years.
He gave up a lot for Sale. I lean just this side of feeling that it was worth it, but we dodged a huge bullet by the White Sox choosing Moncada over Devers as the primary piece of that deal. (Even so, Moncada and Kopech would have been nice to keep as well.)
Travis Shaw and Mauricio Dubon would have been helpful to have around, and they got nothing out of that deal. (Never trade for relievers...)
This also leaves out that he traded Santiago Espinal for Steve Pearce (which is not one I regret, on balance, given what Pearce did for them in 2018, but it was another subtraction from the farm system that is hurting them in the present).
So: Margot, Shaw, and Dubon was the value he gave up needlessly. Kopech, Moncada, and Espinal are talents that he gave up that were arguably worth it.
The other half of the story, like I mentioned, is that he literally never added a single prospect of any significance through trades.
I agree (and mentioned myself) that the seeds for the team's recent lack of good young talent were planted in the early 2010s under Cherington; but Dombrowski did nothing to avert that problem, and in fact made it worse.
If the big losses are Margot, Shaw, and Dubon… I’d call it a great record. This seems a bit nitpicky. I assume you are trying to keep this only to prospects, but if you want to compare trade records big picture, I think DD trounces CB. And what significant prospect has CB added by trade? Jeter Downs? If you think Margot and Shaw had no real value, then I can only assume you never complained about 1B or outfield depth at any point in the last 5 years... Also imagine if they had Shaw in 2017-2018 - no need to trade for Pearce; therefore no need to lose Espinal...
Bloom trade acquisitions which he got by selling major league talent on the 40-man roster: Verdugo, Pivetta, Wong, Winckowski, McGuire, German, Valdez, Hamilton, Abreu. That's almost a quarter of the whole roster and it includes both catchers, a starting outfielder, a starting pitcher, plus their #17, 22, 25, 26, 30, 35, and 42 prospects. Credit to Dombrowski for adding Josh Taylor though.
Anyway, you suckered me into this scorekeeping exercise, but Bloom's performance is not relevant to the point I was making: that if you liked Dombrowski's approach then you ought to be sanguine about the team's current lack of depth. After all, Dombrowski won them a World Series by maximizing the quality of the team in 2017-18 rather than trying to build a consistent contender! Yay, right?
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Post by iakovos11 on Jan 22, 2023 17:48:54 GMT -5
It's just not that guys may have never become all stars (although they were solid players), but he always seemed to add a prospect into the deal. Those are potential guys that could be traded later in other deals. He just seemed to not care and throw a few guys in.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 22, 2023 17:53:37 GMT -5
He shouldn't have traded Margot; he shouldn't have acquired Kimbrel at all. Margot would have been a very useful player for them over the last several years. He gave up a lot for Sale. I lean just this side of feeling that it was worth it, but we dodged a huge bullet by the White Sox choosing Moncada over Devers as the primary piece of that deal. (Even so, Moncada and Kopech would have been nice to keep as well.) Travis Shaw and Mauricio Dubon would have been helpful to have around, and they got nothing out of that deal. (Never trade for relievers...) This also leaves out that he traded Santiago Espinal for Steve Pearce (which is not one I regret, on balance, given what Pearce did for them in 2018, but it was another subtraction from the farm system that is hurting them in the present). So: Margot, Shaw, and Dubon was the value he gave up needlessly. Kopech, Moncada, and Espinal are talents that he gave up that were arguably worth it. The other half of the story, like I mentioned, is that he literally never added a single prospect of any significance through trades. I agree (and mentioned myself) that the seeds for the team's recent lack of good young talent were planted in the early 2010s under Cherington; but Dombrowski did nothing to avert that problem, and in fact made it worse.
If the big losses are Margot, Shaw, and Dubon⦠Iâd call it a great record. This seems a bit nitpicky. I assume you are trying to keep this only to prospects, but if you want to compare trade records big picture, I think DD trounces CB. And what significant prospect has CB added by trade? Jeter Downs? There's Connor Seabold. And Jacob Wallace, Hudson Potts, Jeisson Rosario, 2 questionable guys acquired in the Hosmer deal, Binelas who didn't hit. 200 in AA and Hamilton, who might be a utility guy. He got 3 guys for Ben8ntendi who aren't real prospects and a fringy swing guy in Winckowski. His best acquisition was Whitlock, hands down, from Rule 5, his one big hit. I'd say at this point he has acquired nobody of any real consequence in his trades to date and his best hope is that 4th rounders for X and Eovaldi fetch something, which is more than what they didnt get for JDM and Eovaldi. Margot, Espinal, and Dubon are useful but hardly irreplaceable. Bloom did manage to replace these guys, to his credit, cheaply enough with comparable guys like Kiké and Arroyo. So I'd definitely say Dombrowski traded nothing of any real consequence and through trades Bloom has added no minor leaguers of consequence, at this point, unless DH type Binelas or Hamilton or German surprise. The farm system failed in the wake of Cherington's final drafts, and the international penalties, which had little to do with Dombrowski. However with Casas and Bello, some of Dombrowski's guys are starting to impact the majors. I can't say I understand the criticism that Dombrowski didn't add to the minors through trades. He's very capable of doing so when the team sucks, as Marlins fans know, but Boston never sucked or were in that position in his tenure. I guess he could have auctioned off the team in July 2019, but I dont think that would have made sense. I believe the pitching was messed up due to Coras past season usage pattern of his starters in relief on 2018, which worked, but then had its aftereffects spill into 2019. I think ownership overreacted. They had a core capable of competing, as 2021 showed. I don't think all these guys were ancient and ready for pasture. The farm system was not producing but if you're in it you don't make trades to decrease your chances or stand in place like they did last July. If your team really isn't in it, then you trade veterans for kids. Unfortunately in Blooms case he was in a position to sell 2x in 3 years. You notice he didn't trade for farm help during the July 2021 deadline when he was going for it. Dombrowski was in that very position in 2016, 2017, and 2018. You can argue 2019, but I wouldn't have sold either.
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