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Evaluating the Front Office and Ownership
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Post by keninten on Dec 21, 2022 0:02:35 GMT -5
The answer in my eyes to the question of if they're better or worse than last year is I don't know? If they are correct on Yoshida the answer would slide closer to yes to me. Assuming they sign one of Segura/Andrus or acquire some other SS in that type of vein then I do think that the answer on the offensive side of the ball will be yes, or at least a push anyway. The pitching side of things is where it gets murky to me, I know many on here probably disagree and rightfully so but I still have faith Sale can be a front of the rotation type of starter. Probably not the ace he once was but a #2 if he's healthy. I have no reason to think he won't be since his two injuries last year were fluky things unrelated to arm/shoulder/elbow so he should be fresh. I like Bello a lot, I think Whitlock showed enough in his starts to feel pretty comfortable with him and Pivetta is kind of a steady eddy type that every team needs. So I guess I'm sort of bullish on what those four can produce, they don't have Kluber or the equivalent yet so assuming they do get that there's a solid enough 4th starter. Paxton I don't put any stock in pitching more than 10 innings this year, so anything out of him is gravy I guess. I'd take Houck out of the pen and move him over to the rotation personally or at least have him in a role where he's their 6th option at SP above Crawford if/when an injury comes. I'm similarly bullish on the pitching. I don't see any reason to discount Paxton either, aside from him picking up his option. In theory he made it through TJ fine, though, and just strained a lat while coming back. As far as I know from internet searches, that's something that either is bad enough to need surgery or that should clear up on its own in time for spring training. The fact that he hasn't gotten surgery, then, says to me he should be ready. And I believe someone specifically reported he'll be ready to start the year, so it's not just speculation. So, while injuries of course aren't out of the question, I don't see a particular reason to expect them. As you pointed out, Sale's were fluky. TJ is normal and usually is recovered from fully. And to my knowledge Paxton hasn't had chronic lat issues. So, I'm expecting both to contribute this year. Paxton in particular could have some sort of innings cap coming back from TJ, but if so even getting there would be a huge win. We saw from Sale in limited action last year that his stuff looks great. Paxton apparently hit 95 mph in a simulated game last year and was quite good earlier in his career, so if healthy, I'm expecting him to perform well too. So, I would love another SP for depth, but the guys already on the roster still look like a big upgrade to me over last year's opening day squad: Eovaldi (can he stay healthy?) Wacha (was his September real? Isn't he more of a reliever nowadays?) Hill (is he washed and can he stay healthy?) Pivetta (consistent, but more of a back end guy) Houck (how deep into games can he go? can he be consistent?) Depth: Crawford, Winckowski, Seabold This year: Sale (Still likely a #1 or #2 level starter) Paxton (Likely innings cap, and hasn't pitched in a while; higher risk, but also probably #2 starter upside)Whitlock (Finally healthy and stretched out) Bello (Looked great last year and he's gotten some experience under his belt; very optimistic about him) Pivetta (consistent, but more of a back end guy) Depth: Houck, Crawford, Winckowski, Murphy, Walter, Mata, Seabold Even without another SP, this looks substantially better than last year. Having a bit more depth would be nice, though, even if it's just a Rich Hill type of guy. I don't think we specifically need a Kluber type. So, I see an upgraded rotation and an upgraded bullpen. Offensively the lineup looks deeper too, and this is without a likely middle IF signing. Already the only weak spot is catcher, and McGuire also hit really well for us in a small sample last year (145 wRC+ in 108 PA), so with platoon splits on their side maybe he and Wong won't be entirely useless. Yes, not having X in the middle of the lineup will be missed, but it'll be great not having automatic outs at the end in the form of Franchbec, JBJ/Duran, and Plawecki. This lineup might have Kiké Hernandez hitting 9th, and there's a lot more contact and eye there in Casas, Turner, and Yoshida. It's going to be a pain for opposing pitchers to turn over. The bench looks better too. Last year Arauz was on the opening day roster. So was Travis Shaw. Dalbec was the starting 1B and he might not even make the roster this year. Arroyo was on the team, but he was expected to be used in the OF a lot... Now we have Arroyo in the IF (assuming a starting middle IF acquisition) and Refsnyder as a darned good 4th OF in the outfield. Our DH can play 1B, or 3B in a pinch, so all positions are covered even with one spot on the bench free. We could roster another utility guy, or go with speed (Duran, Hamilton). Tons of options there. --- I'm rambling again. Key point is that I already feel there's reason for optimism on both sides of the ball. People are panning this offseason on the premise that the team isn't getting much better, but compared to last year's opening day roster the only real downgrade is at SS imo. I'd take the other 25 guys on this year's roster in a heartbeat. I understand being upset X is gone, but I don't think there's reason for doom and gloom about the team's potential in 2023 either. Switch Paxton and Houck and I agree 100%. If we get Eovaldi or Kluber, Houck is depth.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 21, 2022 9:29:17 GMT -5
Here is a complete list of teams that signed one of the 10 biggest contracts in each of the last two seasons: Texas Rangers
New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies
Boston Red Sox This seems relevant to the endlessly repeated claim that Bloom "never signs top free agents" or they act like a small market team or whatever.
Meanwhile - here's the complete list of teams that signed more than one:
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Post by manfred on Dec 21, 2022 13:34:59 GMT -5
Tomase is the voice of the resistance. Guy has been underwhelmed this off-season
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Post by Guidas on Dec 21, 2022 13:44:52 GMT -5
Tomase is the voice of the resistance. Guy has been underwhelmed this off-season I'm at the point where I'd just like to be whelmed. Is that too much to ask?
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Post by soxfansince67 on Dec 21, 2022 13:56:11 GMT -5
Hey... Goodrum coming. Marwin redux. Whelmed would be so cool right now.
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Post by manfred on Dec 21, 2022 14:00:37 GMT -5
Hey... Goodrum coming. Marwin redux. Whelmed would be so cool right now. But just picture Danny Torrence croaking “ Murdoog! Murdoog!” Chilling.
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,507
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Post by shagworthy on Dec 21, 2022 14:33:05 GMT -5
Tomase is the voice of the resistance. Guy has been underwhelmed this off-season I'm at the point where I'd just like to be whelmed. Is that too much to ask? I would just like to have an inkling of what the vision is, because the visage I see is not pretty at this stage. I've never seen a ownership group or baseball operations crew fail so spectacularly at reading the room. I fully expect the next announcement we see is they are raising the already highest in the game ticket and concession prices. $15 dollar Fenway Franks (condiments extra) and 30 dollar Bud Lights. A slice of cafeteria pizza will cost you a mortgage payment. For the record, I think Bloom is being set up as the fall guy or patsy. Ownership wanted him to convey interest while knowing they weren't going to seriously contend for Bogey or Devers long term service.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 21, 2022 14:52:12 GMT -5
Hey... Goodrum coming. Marwin redux. Whelmed would be so cool right now. Goodrum.Goodrum.Goodrum.Goodrum. Sorry. I had a Shining moment.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 21, 2022 15:03:49 GMT -5
Hey... Goodrum coming. Marwin redux. Whelmed would be so cool right now. The big difference is that this is a minor league deal. Marwin was brought up to be on the big league roster and got 271 dreadful PAs in before we finally got rid of him.
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Post by pasadenasox on Dec 21, 2022 17:22:56 GMT -5
Hey... Goodrum coming. Marwin redux. Whelmed would be so cool right now. The big difference is that this is a minor league deal. Marwin was brought up to be on the big league roster and got 271 dreadful PAs in before we finally got rid of him. Not much middle infield depth, and that's almost an understatement, in AAA at the moment, so Goodrum makes sense in that regard. Decent move in its context.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 21, 2022 18:17:46 GMT -5
I'd have more confidence in plan B if they immediately started implementing it after plan A failed. (Unless plan B was Turner and flotsam.) Last offseason, I was sure there was a Plan B to JBJ and Dalbec, and Bloom was just waiting to confirm those were not working, and would move in June...... So, fool me one, shame on... won't get fooled again.
Looking forward to the separate Front Office podcast Chris and Ian teased. They sound like they're also becoming less convinced.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 21, 2022 19:04:32 GMT -5
Here is a complete list of teams that signed one of the 10 biggest contracts in each of the last two seasons: Texas Rangers
New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies
Boston Red Sox This seems relevant to the endlessly repeated claim that Bloom "never signs top free agents" or they act like a small market team or whatever.
Meanwhile - here's the complete list of teams that signed more than one: Never thought I'd see the Blue Jays and Padres as bigger spenders than the Sox but hey good for them.
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Post by pasadenasox on Dec 21, 2022 19:39:40 GMT -5
None of that spending has particularly helped Texas. Padres are still TBD. Cubs meh.
I'm not anti-spending per se, but outside of extensions you can only buy what's on the FA market and high-priced free agent retail therapy isn't how to build a sustainable team.
This three year average spending comparative feels deceiving, as well.
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Post by manfred on Dec 21, 2022 19:46:56 GMT -5
None of that spending has particularly helped Texas. Padres are still TBD. Cubs meh. I'm not anti-spending per se, but outside of extensions you can only buy what's on the FA market and high-priced free agent retail therapy isn't how to build a sustainable team. This three year average spending comparative feels deceiving, as well. Then I guess spending three years clearing salary to create $70 million of space is not a great strategy?
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Post by pasadenasox on Dec 21, 2022 19:49:54 GMT -5
None of that spending has particularly helped Texas. Padres are still TBD. Cubs meh. I'm not anti-spending per se, but outside of extensions you can only buy what's on the FA market and high-priced free agent retail therapy isn't how to build a sustainable team. This three year average spending comparative feels deceiving, as well. Then I guess spending three years clearing salary to create $70 million of space is not a great strategy? No? Did I say that it was?
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Post by manfred on Dec 21, 2022 19:52:59 GMT -5
Then I guess spending three years clearing salary to create $70 million of space is not a great strategy? No? Did I say that it was? Not you. But what you said actually seems so self evident that all the folks who have been saying Bloom was weighed down and wait till he’s got flexibility should have to write it 1,000 times on a chalkboard.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 21, 2022 19:59:45 GMT -5
None of that spending has particularly helped Texas. Padres are still TBD. Cubs meh. I'm not anti-spending per se, but outside of extensions you can only buy what's on the FA market and high-priced free agent retail therapy isn't how to build a sustainable team. This three year average spending comparative feels deceiving, as well. it is fair to think this, but the Sox don't have to go full Cohen. They can absorb 1 bad contract, things haven't changed that dramatically. Most of the AAV's right in line with JDM's 25 mill a year and the tax threshold will rise in the future.
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Post by pasadenasox on Dec 21, 2022 20:00:23 GMT -5
No? Did I say that it was? Not you. But what you said actually seems so self evident that all the folks who have been saying Bloom was weighed down and wait till he’s got flexibility should have to write it 1,000 times on a chalkboard. Totally; I don't want to relitigate the whole offseason (at least at the moment), but I suppose somewhat similar to the "flexibility" mantra it's beginning to feel like the way this offseason has progressed so far has thrown folks into a bit of a tizzy to spend almost for its own sake.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 21, 2022 21:11:43 GMT -5
No? Did I say that it was? Not you. But what you said actually seems so self evident that all the folks who have been saying Bloom was weighed down and wait till he’s got flexibility should have to write it 1,000 times on a chalkboard. Are those folks allowed to wait for the team to spend the $30 million it has left to spend before going to the chalkboard? Are they allowed to see how the free agent sigings actually do?
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Post by manfred on Dec 21, 2022 21:17:29 GMT -5
Not you. But what you said actually seems so self evident that all the folks who have been saying Bloom was weighed down and wait till he’s got flexibility should have to write it 1,000 times on a chalkboard. Are those folks allowed to wait for the team to spend the $30 million it has left to spend before going to the chalkboard? Are they allowed to see how the free agent sigings actually do? I guess. But I’d say unless we get a surprise and it is used on Devers, losing X and possibly Devers is not going to be balanced by Justin Turner or, what , Segura and Rich Hill? Do you genuinely think it is too early to say this didn’t go how anyone would want? Who remains unsigned that would make you say “THAT is what we cleared contracts for?”
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 21, 2022 21:25:27 GMT -5
Are those folks allowed to wait for the team to spend the $30 million it has left to spend before going to the chalkboard? Are they allowed to see how the free agent sigings actually do? I guess. But I’d say unless we get a surprise and it is used on Devers, losing X and possibly Devers is not going to be balanced by Justin Turner or, what , Segura and Rich Hill? Do you genuinely think it is too early to say this didn’t go how anyone would want? Who remains unsigned that would make you say “THAT is what we cleared contracts for?” i agree with this and would take it a step further. i think it is fair to assume the extra money now either is being slotted for a Devers extension or was likely the budget for an X and /or Devers extension before the offseason started. I think it is likely accidental that it hasn't been spent to this point.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 21, 2022 21:40:20 GMT -5
None of that spending has particularly helped Texas. Padres are still TBD. Cubs meh. I'm not anti-spending per se, but outside of extensions you can only buy what's on the FA market and high-priced free agent retail therapy isn't how to build a sustainable team. This three year average spending comparative feels deceiving, as well. it is fair to think this, but the Sox don't have to go full Cohen. They can absorb 1 bad contract, things haven't changed that dramatically. Most of the AAV's right in line with JDM's 25 mill a year and the tax threshold will rise in the future. But absorbing one bad contract affects the books year to year. That's not really good for the FO. Can't have any bad long-term contracts if you want to build a sustainable playoff contender here.
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Post by manfred on Dec 21, 2022 21:42:31 GMT -5
it is fair to think this, but the Sox don't have to go full Cohen. They can absorb 1 bad contract, things haven't changed that dramatically. Most of the AAV's right in line with JDM's 25 mill a year and the tax threshold will rise in the future. But absorbing one bad contract affects the books year to year. That's not really good for the FO. Can't have any bad long-term contracts if you want to build a sustainable playoff contender here. But how do you get good ones without risk? People here are talking about extending Casas… that could end up bombing. But if he’s good… it is great.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 21, 2022 21:45:05 GMT -5
Are those folks allowed to wait for the team to spend the $30 million it has left to spend before going to the chalkboard? Are they allowed to see how the free agent sigings actually do? I guess. But I’d say unless we get a surprise and it is used on Devers, losing X and possibly Devers is not going to be balanced by Justin Turner or, what , Segura and Rich Hill? Do you genuinely think it is too early to say this didn’t go how anyone would want? Who remains unsigned that would make you say “THAT is what we cleared contracts for?” I think they screwed up royally with Bogaerts. But that seems separate from the question of whether Bloom can efficiently spend the team's resources now that he has put his mark on almost the entire payroll.
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Post by manfred on Dec 21, 2022 21:49:07 GMT -5
I guess. But I’d say unless we get a surprise and it is used on Devers, losing X and possibly Devers is not going to be balanced by Justin Turner or, what , Segura and Rich Hill? Do you genuinely think it is too early to say this didn’t go how anyone would want? Who remains unsigned that would make you say “THAT is what we cleared contracts for?” I think they screwed up royally with Bogaerts. But that seems separate from the question of whether Bloom can efficiently spend the team's resources now that he has put his mark on almost the entire payroll.
Not sure I see it as *separate* — you clear as much money as you are likely to have any given off season and have one obvious task. That is all one thing. So everything after X is catch up or plan B. At best plan A minus the biggest part of plan A. But I don’t believe for a second that this FO started the off season thinking “Justin Turner is one of our primary targets.” That seems like a make-do move.
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