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Evaluating the Front Office and Ownership
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Post by incandenza on Dec 21, 2022 22:52:03 GMT -5
I think they screwed up royally with Bogaerts. But that seems separate from the question of whether Bloom can efficiently spend the team's resources now that he has put his mark on almost the entire payroll.
Not sure I see it as *separate* — you clear as much money as you are likely to have any given off season and have one obvious task. That is all one thing. So everything after X is catch up or plan B. At best plan A minus the biggest part of plan A. But I don’t believe for a second that this FO started the off season thinking “Justin Turner is one of our primary targets.” That seems like a make-do move. Fair enough.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 21, 2022 23:02:33 GMT -5
I think you have to compartmentalize his moves in sections.
He said he wanted 7 to 9 new players.
This is what I think his plan was:
The team's biggest strength was their infield. His Plan A was to secure that strength and sign X. He failed miserably. Nobody blames him for not giving X 280 million. His failure came last spring and during the season when he failed to offer a Story like extension. Also during the exclusive 5 day window in Nov he failed to offer X 7 years 200 million. Maybe by then it wouldn't have mattered. We'll never know. We only know that X wanted to come back badly and Bloom never got past 160 million. Epic fail all the way. Now they're stuck hoping Story can handle SS and stuck signing or trading for a second division middle infielder.
For the outfield I have to believe his Plan A there was Yoshida, given the way they pounced on him and had no issues showing him the money. He wasn't going to spend on Judge. Doesnt look like he was ever serious about Nimmo or even Haniger who would have been a nice fit offensively. I would say Bloom accomplished what he wanted to on the market. Ideally he would have gotten a guy who can handle RF and relegate Verdugo to LF but there was only Judge and he appeard to be lukewarm on Conforto.
The bullpen was terrible last year. Houck was their best closer although his skill set of being able to pitch multiple innings he was miscast. I'd say Jansen was Bloom's top target. He has the resume and is still effective although I do worry about him approaching the crossroads and having to deal with the pitch clock.
Chris Martin was one of his top relief targets although I dont know if Kahnle was Plan A and Martin Plan B or if he was hoping for both.
I figure Jansen and Martin replace Houck and Whitlock in the pen freeing them to start.
Bloom was quick to strike on Rodriguez considering him a cheaper alternative to Strahm who I think is better. I will be disappointed if Bloom doesnt pick up a quality late inning lefty like Chafin, Rodgers, or Will Smith. Their pen is better defined although I dont know if it's better. Get a quality lefty and a starter who can move Houck back to the own and I'll say he improved the pen decidedly.
Bloom might or might not have promised to add two solid starters but at the moment he has subtracted the 2 best starters they had, in Eovaldi and Wacha. So that puts a lot of pressure on two of Bello, Whitlock, or Houck to provide quality and innings. Also puts pressure on Sale to provide top of the rotation innings and performance which he hasn't done in years and counting on Paxton is dubious.
We know he targeted Elfin and Heaney and got neither but both are back end starter types. I really have no idea what his plan was. Right now its hope for the best. I would have hoped for certainty. I think he needs to bring back Eovaldi. Quality options are limited.
He passed up a solid option in Vazquez to take a chance that the McGuire/Wong tandem is as good for a cheaper price. I'm not convinced that'll be the case.
Bloom could have brought back JDM but calculated that for a little extra money and an option that wont be triggered if Turner plays well. I'll guess he did ok on that. Scary to think who'd he have gotten if Turner slipped away. They desperately needed a righty bat even though Turner doesn't really have the RH power bat they need, but he can hit.
So I think they marginally improved the team and can further strengthen the pen and add a starter but I think the loss of Bogaerts basically negates their gains and they're still left with a team that lacks power and speed and has bad outfield defense, and has too many question marks in their rotation. Basically a .500 team or less that might improve enough to be a 3rd wild card type team if they add an averageish 2b/SS, Eovaldi and a quality bullpen lefty.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 22, 2022 7:09:00 GMT -5
None of that spending has particularly helped Texas. Padres are still TBD. Cubs meh. I'm not anti-spending per se, but outside of extensions you can only buy what's on the FA market and high-priced free agent retail therapy isn't how to build a sustainable team. This three year average spending comparative feels deceiving, as well. So, 70% of those teams made the playoffs and one other was in the hunt until the last two weeks, giving that spending an 80% effectiveness when held up to the Bloom /Kennedy Doctrine of “fielding a contending team”, but you pick the two outliers? OK…
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Post by greenmonster on Dec 22, 2022 8:03:07 GMT -5
I think you have to compartmentalize his moves in sections. He said he wanted 7 to 9 new players. This is what I think his plan was: The team's biggest strength was their infield. His Plan A was to secure that strength and sign X. He failed miserably. Nobody blames him for not giving X 280 million. His failure came last spring and during the season when he failed to offer a Story like extension. Also during the exclusive 5 day window in Nov he failed to offer X 7 years 200 million. Maybe by then it wouldn't have mattered. We'll never know. We only know that X wanted to come back badly and Bloom never got past 160 million. Epic fail all the way. Now they're stuck hoping Story can handle SS and stuck signing or trading for a second division middle infielder. For the outfield I have to believe his Plan A there was Yoshida, given the way they pounced on him and had no issues showing him the money. He wasn't going to spend on Judge. Doesnt look like he was ever serious about Nimmo or even Haniger who would have been a nice fit offensively. I would say Bloom accomplished what he wanted to on the market. Ideally he would have gotten a guy who can handle RF and relegate Verdugo to LF but there was only Judge and he appeard to be lukewarm on Conforto. The bullpen was terrible last year. Houck was their best closer although his skill set of being able to pitch multiple innings he was miscast. I'd say Jansen was Bloom's top target. He has the resume and is still effective although I do worry about him approaching the crossroads and having to deal with the pitch clock. Chris Martin was one of his top relief targets although I dont know if Kahnle was Plan A and Martin Plan B or if he was hoping for both. I figure Jansen and Martin replace Houck and Whitlock in the pen freeing them to start. Bloom was quick to strike on Rodriguez considering him a cheaper alternative to Strahm who I think is better. I will be disappointed if Bloom doesnt pick up a quality late inning lefty like Chafin, Rodgers, or Will Smith. Their pen is better defined although I dont know if it's better. Get a quality lefty and a starter who can move Houck back to the own and I'll say he improved the pen decidedly. Bloom might or might not have promised to add two solid starters but at the moment he has subtracted the 2 best starters they had, in Eovaldi and Wacha. So that puts a lot of pressure on two of Bello, Whitlock, or Houck to provide quality and innings. Also puts pressure on Sale to provide top of the rotation innings and performance which he hasn't done in years and counting on Paxton is dubious. We know he targeted Elfin and Heaney and got neither but both are back end starter types. I really have no idea what his plan was. Right now its hope for the best. I would have hoped for certainty. I think he needs to bring back Eovaldi. Quality options are limited. He passed up a solid option in Vazquez to take a chance that the McGuire/Wong tandem is as good for a cheaper price. I'm not convinced that'll be the case. Bloom could have brought back JDM but calculated that for a little extra money and an option that wont be triggered if Turner plays well. I'll guess he did ok on that. Scary to think who'd he have gotten if Turner slipped away. They desperately needed a righty bat even though Turner doesn't really have the RH power bat they need, but he can hit. So I think they marginally improved the team and can further strengthen the pen and add a starter but I think the loss of Bogaerts basically negates their gains and they're still left with a team that lacks power and speed and has bad outfield defense, and has too many question marks in their rotation. Basically a .500 team or less that might improve enough to be a 3rd wild card type team if they add an averageish 2b/SS, Eovaldi and a quality bullpen lefty. Not sure if you were intending to recap the off-season to date, but If I recall, one of the very first FA's they were pursuing was Jose Abreu. He fits in there somewhere...probably ahead of Turner
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 22, 2022 8:30:01 GMT -5
I'd forgotten about Abreu. I didn't really mind they didn't get him at the time figuring they'd hopefully get one of the SS and the money would be better used there. Hindsight now tells me I wish they'd gone harder at abreu though. It's possible they were never in contention to top the Astros tho since I'm sure he wanted to play for a guaranteed contender.
I'm too lazy to do the complete math right now but an Abreu/Benintendi reunion probably would be just slightly more than what they're paying for yoshida/turner combo. I think Abreu/beni has a higher floor but a lower ceiling than yoshida/turner. Just some hindsight thinking though, I have no problem with yoshida and turner. Just have to really hope yoshida can be a .300 avg .360-.380 obp guy who can hit a lot of wall ball doubles and 10-15 HRs or that contract won't provide any surplus value.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 22, 2022 8:36:36 GMT -5
I'm pretty content to have TUrner for 2 years at 11 million AAV rather than Abreu for 3 years at 20 million AAV.
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Post by greenmonster on Dec 22, 2022 8:53:14 GMT -5
I'm pretty content to have TUrner for 2 years at 11 million AAV rather than Abreu for 3 years at 20 million AAV. I don't disagree with that assuming of course that they have plans for the money saved. Abreu is 3 years younger and probably a better hitter, but not twice as good to warrant double AAV. Turner does also offer some better defensive flexibility which is a plus.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 22, 2022 8:57:37 GMT -5
I think you have to compartmentalize his moves in sections. He said he wanted 7 to 9 new players. This is what I think his plan was: The team's biggest strength was their infield. His Plan A was to secure that strength and sign X. He failed miserably. Nobody blames him for not giving X 280 million. His failure came last spring and during the season when he failed to offer a Story like extension. Also during the exclusive 5 day window in Nov he failed to offer X 7 years 200 million. Maybe by then it wouldn't have mattered. We'll never know. We only know that X wanted to come back badly and Bloom never got past 160 million. Epic fail all the way. Now they're stuck hoping Story can handle SS and stuck signing or trading for a second division middle infielder. For the outfield I have to believe his Plan A there was Yoshida, given the way they pounced on him and had no issues showing him the money. He wasn't going to spend on Judge. Doesnt look like he was ever serious about Nimmo or even Haniger who would have been a nice fit offensively. I would say Bloom accomplished what he wanted to on the market. Ideally he would have gotten a guy who can handle RF and relegate Verdugo to LF but there was only Judge and he appeard to be lukewarm on Conforto. The bullpen was terrible last year. Houck was their best closer although his skill set of being able to pitch multiple innings he was miscast. I'd say Jansen was Bloom's top target. He has the resume and is still effective although I do worry about him approaching the crossroads and having to deal with the pitch clock. Chris Martin was one of his top relief targets although I dont know if Kahnle was Plan A and Martin Plan B or if he was hoping for both. I figure Jansen and Martin replace Houck and Whitlock in the pen freeing them to start. Bloom was quick to strike on Rodriguez considering him a cheaper alternative to Strahm who I think is better. I will be disappointed if Bloom doesnt pick up a quality late inning lefty like Chafin, Rodgers, or Will Smith. Their pen is better defined although I dont know if it's better. Get a quality lefty and a starter who can move Houck back to the own and I'll say he improved the pen decidedly. Bloom might or might not have promised to add two solid starters but at the moment he has subtracted the 2 best starters they had, in Eovaldi and Wacha. So that puts a lot of pressure on two of Bello, Whitlock, or Houck to provide quality and innings. Also puts pressure on Sale to provide top of the rotation innings and performance which he hasn't done in years and counting on Paxton is dubious. We know he targeted Elfin and Heaney and got neither but both are back end starter types. I really have no idea what his plan was. Right now its hope for the best. I would have hoped for certainty. I think he needs to bring back Eovaldi. Quality options are limited. He passed up a solid option in Vazquez to take a chance that the McGuire/Wong tandem is as good for a cheaper price. I'm not convinced that'll be the case. Bloom could have brought back JDM but calculated that for a little extra money and an option that wont be triggered if Turner plays well. I'll guess he did ok on that. Scary to think who'd he have gotten if Turner slipped away. They desperately needed a righty bat even though Turner doesn't really have the RH power bat they need, but he can hit. So I think they marginally improved the team and can further strengthen the pen and add a starter but I think the loss of Bogaerts basically negates their gains and they're still left with a team that lacks power and speed and has bad outfield defense, and has too many question marks in their rotation. Basically a .500 team or less that might improve enough to be a 3rd wild card type team if they add an averageish 2b/SS, Eovaldi and a quality bullpen lefty. The real problem is the focus on quantity over quality with the hope that some of the quantity turns into quality. Why spend 30 million on one star when you can 2 good players. 4 quarters still equals one dollar. Etc... Sometimes, it's better to buy a horse over two ponies. This team desperately needs a marketable homegrown player. Most people like myself assume Devers is gone. The next logical player is probably Mayer. I mean, hell, even a single marketable star in this market past this year would be great.
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Post by manfred on Dec 22, 2022 8:58:47 GMT -5
I'm pretty content to have TUrner for 2 years at 11 million AAV rather than Abreu for 3 years at 20 million AAV. I might be if I didn’t think when Turner’s money cleared they’d just replace him with another Turner. Flexibility has become a shibboleth.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 22, 2022 9:03:02 GMT -5
Are those folks allowed to wait for the team to spend the $30 million it has left to spend before going to the chalkboard? Are they allowed to see how the free agent sigings actually do? I guess. But I’d say unless we get a surprise and it is used on Devers, losing X and possibly Devers is not going to be balanced by Justin Turner or, what , Segura and Rich Hill? Do you genuinely think it is too early to say this didn’t go how anyone would want? Who remains unsigned that would make you say “THAT is what we cleared contracts for?” I mean, is it my first choice of what could have happened this offseason? No. Do I think they have done alright given the unreasonably hot market, and am I happy with the players that have been acquired? Largely yes. Plug the middle IF hole at a minimum and it will have been a decent offseason. I am content with not signing a top SS given the contracts they eventually got. My biggest regret is Verdugo being likely to start the year in RF, but he'll at least hit enough to survive there. Yoshida's price tag does make more sense if he's playing the field most of the time and I like both his and Turner's bats, so that turned out (pun intended) well enough. I'm really happy they seem to be sticking with McGuire/Wong at catcher. I wouldn't have wanted Vazquez back on a deal half as rich as he got. The Jansen signing was probably my least favorite of the offseason, but having a decent pen should make watching the games this year less soul crushing. I'm excited to see what Whitlock can do in the rotation and I agree with that being the best role for him this year. I'm happy Paxton opted in and that Eovaldi declined the QO.
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Post by manfred on Dec 22, 2022 9:10:37 GMT -5
I guess. But I’d say unless we get a surprise and it is used on Devers, losing X and possibly Devers is not going to be balanced by Justin Turner or, what , Segura and Rich Hill? Do you genuinely think it is too early to say this didn’t go how anyone would want? Who remains unsigned that would make you say “THAT is what we cleared contracts for?” I mean, is it my first choice of what could have happened this offseason? No. Do I think they have done alright given the unreasonably hot market, and am I happy with the players that have been acquired? Largely yes. Plug the middle IF hole at a minimum and it will have been a decent offseason. I am content with not signing a top SS given the contracts they eventually got. My biggest regret is Verdugo being likely to start the year in RF, but he'll at least hit enough to survive there. Yoshida's price tag does make more sense if he's playing the field most of the time and I like both his and Turner's bats, so that turned out (pun intended) well enough. I'm really happy they seem to be sticking with McGuire/Wong at catcher. I wouldn't have wanted Vazquez back on a deal half as rich as he got. The Jansen signing was probably my least favorite of the offseason, but having a decent pen should make watching the games this year less soul crushing. I'm excited to see what Whitlock can do in the rotation and I agree with that being the best role for him this year. I'm happy Paxton opted in and that Eovaldi declined the QO. That is a low bar when X is just “the hole.” So you think trading X for Yoshida, JDM for Turner, and Paxton for Eovaldi is what these past three years have been leading to? And now we are in business? And now we all see the plan coming together?
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 22, 2022 9:21:13 GMT -5
I'm pretty content to have TUrner for 2 years at 11 million AAV rather than Abreu for 3 years at 20 million AAV. I might be if I didn’t think when Turner’s money coeared they’d just replace him with another Turner. Flexibility has become a shibboleth. I dont really see the issue in bringing in DH types for what basically is a 1 year deal. Hopefully someone develops in the farm who can log the lions share of ABs for at DH for cheap but until then I'm content with turner type deals rather than the JD Martinez type DH deals for 25 for 5 years. Those are the deals I don't want at all.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 22, 2022 9:22:14 GMT -5
I'm pretty content to have TUrner for 2 years at 11 million AAV rather than Abreu for 3 years at 20 million AAV. I might be if I didn’t think when Turner’s money coeared they’d just replace him with another Turner. Flexibility has become a shibboleth. Without flexibility you probably can't even fill your holes, though. That was the issue for much of 2020-2022. You are simply not going to have a star at every position on the diamond, and the stars that do exist will not necessarily come via free agency. Even if we wanted to sign an elite DH this year, that guy did not exist. The only options were signing a mid-tier FA or spending elsewhere and cycling guys through DH and/or using internal options.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 22, 2022 9:25:06 GMT -5
I mean, is it my first choice of what could have happened this offseason? No. Do I think they have done alright given the unreasonably hot market, and am I happy with the players that have been acquired? Largely yes. Plug the middle IF hole at a minimum and it will have been a decent offseason. I am content with not signing a top SS given the contracts they eventually got. My biggest regret is Verdugo being likely to start the year in RF, but he'll at least hit enough to survive there. Yoshida's price tag does make more sense if he's playing the field most of the time and I like both his and Turner's bats, so that turned out (pun intended) well enough. I'm really happy they seem to be sticking with McGuire/Wong at catcher. I wouldn't have wanted Vazquez back on a deal half as rich as he got. The Jansen signing was probably my least favorite of the offseason, but having a decent pen should make watching the games this year less soul crushing. I'm excited to see what Whitlock can do in the rotation and I agree with that being the best role for him this year. I'm happy Paxton opted in and that Eovaldi declined the QO. That is a low bar when X is just “the hole.” So you think trading X for Yoshida, JDM for Turner, and Paxton for Eovaldi is what these past three years have been leading to? And now we are in business? And now we all see the plan coming together? Something that keeps getting overlooked here, I think, is that, no, lateral free agent moves and marginal upgrades aren't what the past three years have been leading to; Casas and Whitlock and Houck and Bello are what they've been leading to. In other words, the idea all along has been to build a team on the foundation of an effective farm system, and then to supplement that with free agent additions.
Bloom has done a mostly good job of adding major league talent. That got them to the ALCS in 2021, and he had some successes last year too (Wacha, Hill, Schreiber, Refsnyder, McGuire) in a season that was undermined by injuries. The path back to being a good team is for Bloom to keep doing that part of the job, which he's been good at, while they finally start to get some real contributions from the young guys.
(And hopefully he doesn't screw it up in regards to the thing he has so far been terrible at by letting Devers leave.)
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 22, 2022 9:27:24 GMT -5
I mean, is it my first choice of what could have happened this offseason? No. Do I think they have done alright given the unreasonably hot market, and am I happy with the players that have been acquired? Largely yes. Plug the middle IF hole at a minimum and it will have been a decent offseason. I am content with not signing a top SS given the contracts they eventually got. My biggest regret is Verdugo being likely to start the year in RF, but he'll at least hit enough to survive there. Yoshida's price tag does make more sense if he's playing the field most of the time and I like both his and Turner's bats, so that turned out (pun intended) well enough. I'm really happy they seem to be sticking with McGuire/Wong at catcher. I wouldn't have wanted Vazquez back on a deal half as rich as he got. The Jansen signing was probably my least favorite of the offseason, but having a decent pen should make watching the games this year less soul crushing. I'm excited to see what Whitlock can do in the rotation and I agree with that being the best role for him this year. I'm happy Paxton opted in and that Eovaldi declined the QO. That is a low bar when X is just “the hole.” So you think trading X for Yoshida, JDM for Turner, and Paxton for Eovaldi is what these past three years have been leading to? And now we are in business? And now we all see the plan coming together? In order to be better than a WC contender, we need both effective FA spending and a productive farm. You can't spend effectively when your money is tied up in unproductive contracts, so cleaning up the books is important. Our FA dollars are being spent much more effectively this year than in previous years; even if you hate the signings this season, the bar was on the floor. The farm is a lot better than it was, but we're only just starting to see contributions from it. That should continue to get more useful as well. So, this is not an endpoint or a goal, but rather a point on an upward trajectory.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 22, 2022 9:29:15 GMT -5
I might be if I didn’t think when Turner’s money coeared they’d just replace him with another Turner. Flexibility has become a shibboleth. Without flexibility you probably can't even fill your holes, though. That was the issue for much of 2020-2022. You are simply not going to have a star at every position on the diamond, and the stars that do exist will not necessarily come via free agency. Even if we wanted to sign an elite DH slot this year, that guy did not exist. The only options were signing a mid-tier FA or spending elsewhere and cycling guys through DH and/or using internal options. You can if you draft properly and get players who are stars at multiple positions and if that happens then none of this angst is happening. The Boston Red Sox right now has one star player. The goal of this organization should be to acquire more star players with the goal of winning another title.
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Post by manfred on Dec 22, 2022 9:32:00 GMT -5
I might be if I didn’t think when Turner’s money coeared they’d just replace him with another Turner. Flexibility has become a shibboleth. Without flexibility you probably can't even fill your holes, though. That was the issue for much of 2020-2022. You are simply not going to have a star at every position on the diamond, and the stars that do exist will not necessarily come via free agency. Even if we wanted to sign an elite DH slot this year, that guy did not exist. The only options were signing a mid-tier FA or spending elsewhere and cycling guys through DH and/or using internal options. We have stars at fewer positions every year. I use Turner as an example. There are many examples of short term guys who just need replacing with the next short term guy. I agree at the margins that is key. But in key spots it is *not* the margins. I’m fine with people being down on DH, but when this team was *good* JDM was a big part of the lineup. If you want to compare Turner to JDM2022, sure, it is an upgrade. But it is actually another position that continues its longer term decline. Indeed, to me one of the saddest things about the off season is the biggest victory Bloom has had was Story at 2b… it was the one position he’d demonstrably improved, stabilizing it at a level we’d not seen since Pedey was mugged. But moving Story to SS means we are worse at SS AND we lose that gain. But perhaps we can sign another 1 or 2 year guy so a year or two from now we can… something.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 22, 2022 9:32:00 GMT -5
Without flexibility you probably can't even fill your holes, though. That was the issue for much of 2020-2022. You are simply not going to have a star at every position on the diamond, and the stars that do exist will not necessarily come via free agency. Even if we wanted to sign an elite DH slot this year, that guy did not exist. The only options were signing a mid-tier FA or spending elsewhere and cycling guys through DH and/or using internal options. You can if you draft properly and get players who are stars at multiple positions and if that happens then none of this angst is happening. The Boston Red Sox right now has one star player. The goal of this organization should be to acquire more star players with the goal of winning another title. 1) How long do you think it takes for good drafts to translate into stars on the major league roster, especially if those prospects are just leaving high school? 2) Is your answer to #1 longer or shorter than Bloom's tenure in Boston?
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Post by manfred on Dec 22, 2022 9:37:10 GMT -5
That is a low bar when X is just “the hole.” So you think trading X for Yoshida, JDM for Turner, and Paxton for Eovaldi is what these past three years have been leading to? And now we are in business? And now we all see the plan coming together? Something that keeps getting overlooked here, I think, is that, no, lateral free agent moves and marginal upgrades aren't what the past three years have been leading to; Casas and Whitlock and Houck and Bello are what they've been leading to. In other words, the idea all along has been to build a team on the foundation of an effective farm system, and then to supplement that with free agent additions.
Bloom has done a mostly good job of adding major league talent. That got them to the ALCS in 2021, and he had some successes last year too (Wacha, Hill, Schreiber, Refsnyder, McGuire) in a season that was undermined by injuries. The path back to being a good team is for Bloom to keep doing that part of the job, which he's been good at, while they finally start to get some real contributions from the young guys.
(And hopefully he doesn't screw it up in regards to the thing he has so far been terrible at by letting Devers leave.)
He is responsible for one of those guys. So you could have almost left his office empty… do no harm!… and gotten that result. But that is also exceedingly optimistic. I think Houck is a bullpen arm. Whitlock and Bello could be huge… if either is frontline it saves hundreds of millions. Casas still has a very wide range of outcomes. But that is not a “core.” We are still all pretty much twittling our thumbs until Mayer.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 22, 2022 9:37:55 GMT -5
Without flexibility you probably can't even fill your holes, though. That was the issue for much of 2020-2022. You are simply not going to have a star at every position on the diamond, and the stars that do exist will not necessarily come via free agency. Even if we wanted to sign an elite DH slot this year, that guy did not exist. The only options were signing a mid-tier FA or spending elsewhere and cycling guys through DH and/or using internal options. We have stars at fewer positions every year. I use Turner as an example. There are many examples of short term guys who just need replacing with the next short term guy. I agree at the margins that is key. But in key spots it is *not* the margins. I’m fine with people being down on DH, but when this team was *good* JDM was a big part of the lineup. If you want to compare Turner to JDM2022, sure, it is an upgrade. But it is actually another position that continues its longer term decline. Indeed, to me one of the saddest things about the off season is the biggest victory Bloom has had was Story at 2b… it was the one position he’d demonstrably improved, stabilizing it at a level we’d not seen since Pedey was mugged. But moving Story to SS means we are worse at SS AND we lose that gain. But perhaps we can sign another 1 or 2 year guy so a year or two from now we can… something. I understand the frustration with existing stars leaving, but the idea is to add stars via the farm. I can't convince you this isn't a downward spiral if that's what you see, but to me this is likely to be the best roster we've had since 2019, and this is before the farm is really churning yet. I see lots of reason for optimism about this season and the trajectory going forward. Edit: And re: your other comment, DD prospects are more likely to be making an impact now because they have been incubating longer. And yet, even if Casas lives up to the hype this year, he would have been the first regular starter we developed in the past six years. That is what a terrible farm looks like. Past this crop of guys, almost all of the production going forward is likely to come from Bloom acquisitions. If the office had been left empty this would be the last harvest from the farm, but we need contributions each year to stay good.
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Post by manfred on Dec 22, 2022 9:44:12 GMT -5
We have stars at fewer positions every year. I use Turner as an example. There are many examples of short term guys who just need replacing with the next short term guy. I agree at the margins that is key. But in key spots it is *not* the margins. I’m fine with people being down on DH, but when this team was *good* JDM was a big part of the lineup. If you want to compare Turner to JDM2022, sure, it is an upgrade. But it is actually another position that continues its longer term decline. Indeed, to me one of the saddest things about the off season is the biggest victory Bloom has had was Story at 2b… it was the one position he’d demonstrably improved, stabilizing it at a level we’d not seen since Pedey was mugged. But moving Story to SS means we are worse at SS AND we lose that gain. But perhaps we can sign another 1 or 2 year guy so a year or two from now we can… something. I understand the frustration with existing stars leaving, but the idea is to add stars via the farm. I can't convince you this isn't a downward spiral if that's what you see, but to me this is likely to be the best roster we've had since 2019, and this is before the farm is really churning yet. I see lots of reason for optimism about this season and the trajectory going forward. Which stars? Who projects to be a star in the next few years in the lineup? Before Turner is 40? Before Story is in his mid-30s? When Kiké is gone? Verdugo is asking for Beni money? I genuinely don’t see a progression so much as wheel spinning. For this to be the best lineup since 2019, Yoshida and Casas will have to hit the high end of their projections, they’ll, you know, need a second baseman, their catchers will need to exceed expectations, and everyone else will have to stay healthy and productive. That could happen. But pretty much any of that goes wrong…
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Post by incandenza on Dec 22, 2022 9:46:52 GMT -5
Something that keeps getting overlooked here, I think, is that, no, lateral free agent moves and marginal upgrades aren't what the past three years have been leading to; Casas and Whitlock and Houck and Bello are what they've been leading to. In other words, the idea all along has been to build a team on the foundation of an effective farm system, and then to supplement that with free agent additions.
Bloom has done a mostly good job of adding major league talent. That got them to the ALCS in 2021, and he had some successes last year too (Wacha, Hill, Schreiber, Refsnyder, McGuire) in a season that was undermined by injuries. The path back to being a good team is for Bloom to keep doing that part of the job, which he's been good at, while they finally start to get some real contributions from the young guys.
(And hopefully he doesn't screw it up in regards to the thing he has so far been terrible at by letting Devers leave.)
He is responsible for one of those guys. So you could have almost left his office empty… do no harm!… and gotten that result. But that is also exceedingly optimistic. I think Houck is a bullpen arm. Whitlock and Bello could be huge… if either is frontline it saves hundreds of millions. Casas still has a very wide range of outcomes. But that is not a “core.” We are still all pretty much twittling our thumbs until Mayer. Fine, whatever - Bloom inherited a burgeoning farm system thanks to Dombrowski's prudent stewardship. That doesn't change the basic situation the team is and has been in: scraping by for several years without good young talent arriving in the majors.
And of course no prospect is guaranteed to succeed in the majors. It wasn't guaranteed for Betts or Bogaerts or Devers either. But based on what I saw from Bello and Casas they both have a chance to be really good. Casas, in particular, is not on some totally other tier from Mayer - it's only a few months ago that Mayer passed him to become the #1 prospect here.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 22, 2022 9:54:04 GMT -5
I understand the frustration with existing stars leaving, but the idea is to add stars via the farm. I can't convince you this isn't a downward spiral if that's what you see, but to me this is likely to be the best roster we've had since 2019, and this is before the farm is really churning yet. I see lots of reason for optimism about this season and the trajectory going forward. Which stars? Who projects to be a star in the next few years in the lineup? Before Turner is 40? Before Story is in his mid-30s? When Kiké is gone? Verdugo is asking for Beni money? I genuinely don’t see a progression so much as wheel spinning. For this to be the best lineup since 2019, Yoshida and Casas will have to hit the high end of their projections, they’ll, you know, need a second baseman, their catchers will need to exceed expectations, and everyone else will have to stay healthy and productive. That could happen. But pretty much any of that goes wrong… It depends how prospects develop. It could be Casas, Whitlock, or Bello. Going forward it could be Mayer, Rafaela, or Bleis. Currently I would argue that Story and Sale are both stars (they've just been injured a lot so it's easy to forget), and Yoshida could be as well with even a 60th to 70th percentile outcome on his ZiPS projections. It's not just Devers. I have gone through the exercise of comparing the 2022 roster to the 2023 roster and the only actual downgrade will be at SS. Everything else is either a wash or improved, and should more than compensate for the downgrade at SS (assuming another middle IF signing). This will be my last attempt to make my case; I realize it's futile.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Dec 22, 2022 9:54:15 GMT -5
Had a weird thought recently - if you think about the worst contracts the Red Sox have given out in the Henry era, I think there are 4 that stand out:
- Crawford - Pablo - Hanley - Sale
You can put those in any order you want, but I am pretty sure those 4 are pretty easily the worst contracts given out over the last 20 years. Is it a coincidence that the head executive of the team was gone within a year of giving these deals out? Theo wasn't fired, but he left right after the 2011 season. Dombrowski was brought on in late 2015 so Cherington was essentially fired then, and then DD was fired in September of 2019, about a month after Sale's elbow blew up. Are all of those coincidences, or did ownership blame that executive and want to move on?
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Post by manfred on Dec 22, 2022 9:57:48 GMT -5
He is responsible for one of those guys. So you could have almost left his office empty… do no harm!… and gotten that result. But that is also exceedingly optimistic. I think Houck is a bullpen arm. Whitlock and Bello could be huge… if either is frontline it saves hundreds of millions. Casas still has a very wide range of outcomes. But that is not a “core.” We are still all pretty much twittling our thumbs until Mayer. Fine, whatever - Bloom inherited a burgeoning farm system thanks to Dombrowski's prudent stewardship. That doesn't change the basic situation the team is and has been in: scraping by for several years without good young talent arriving in the majors.
And of course no prospect is guaranteed to succeed in the majors. It wasn't guaranteed for Betts or Bogaerts or Devers either. But based on what I saw from Bello and Casas they both have a chance to be really good. Casas, in particular, is not on some totally other tier from Mayer - it's only a few months ago that Mayer passed him to become the #1 prospect here.
My point is not — at all please god — another round on Dombrowski. But arriving and saying “let’s wait” is not a super inspiring plan. Indeed, passivity seems to be Bloom’s fatal flaw. Passive about signing X. Passive on FA market if reports are accurate about guys who went elsewhere. And now the *defense* of his approach is inactivity. Wait for guys to blossom. In the meantime, fans keep paying for a subpar product. I know… this is where we get “but Story!” “but Yoshida!” — the two exceptions, one of whom it turns out (as many suspected) is the cheaper replacement for Xander; the other the circuitous (and pricier!) replacement for Benentendi. Money spent, yes. Forward motion? Well, I guess if we count the addition of a comp pick, Franchy, and Winckowski as a huge profit.
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