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Evaluating the Front Office and Ownership
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Post by trajanacc on Sept 8, 2023 15:56:52 GMT -5
also if you want to know how bad that article is... Every reply and QT to this tweet, is ripping it People mostly go on Twitter to bitch, not compliment. So I imagine 80% of the teams’ fans think their team is too low and are complaining, and the other 20% just said ‘yeah seems right, solid article’ and went on their way. Fwiw I think the Red Sox are too low but then again I am a Red Sox fan so
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Post by Guidas on Sept 8, 2023 16:03:18 GMT -5
Nitpicking a little but putting guys like Colson Montgomery in a category above Duran and Bello seems unfair. Camilo Doval is more valuable than Bello? No thanks. Not gonna sweat about the article obviously but that's silly. Red Sox are moving fine. They'll be solid again next year, probably incrementally better. The MLB team or the farm system? The farm I'd agree with, MLB, not so much. I'm not sure you can consider a .500ish team "solid," unless we mean solidly in the middle of the AL. Yes, they aren't the As, but their budget is nearly 5x larger, and 12th overall in MLB against the tax ( according to Cots).
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Post by briam on Sept 8, 2023 16:43:58 GMT -5
He categorized above average as 3-5 WAR, so it’s not too crazy considering his limited value as a defender and base runner. I mean rookie season he's at 1.7 with a really bad start to the season, it's not hard seeing him get another .3 to get to an even 2 this year. If he doesn't think Casas can get to a 3 WAR player for 2025 I'm not really sure what he's looking at. The guys been a top 10 hitter in baseball since June pretty much. Personally if he keeps that up I couldn't care less what his base running and defense looks like. But I guess yes, point taken in terms of his write up using the barometer of above average as 3-5 WAR. I love Casas, but he’s the prototypical guy that gets undervalued by WAR. He’s a very bad defender at the least valuable defensive position and is slow. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s both an offensive force AND just a 3 WAR player.
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 8, 2023 16:48:52 GMT -5
I mean rookie season he's at 1.7 with a really bad start to the season, it's not hard seeing him get another .3 to get to an even 2 this year. If he doesn't think Casas can get to a 3 WAR player for 2025 I'm not really sure what he's looking at. The guys been a top 10 hitter in baseball since June pretty much. Personally if he keeps that up I couldn't care less what his base running and defense looks like. But I guess yes, point taken in terms of his write up using the barometer of above average as 3-5 WAR. I love Casas, but he’s the prototypical guy that gets undervalued by WAR. He’s a very bad defender at the least valuable defensive position and is slow. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s both an offensive force AND just a 3 WAR player. For what it’s worth, he’s at 2.2 fWAR in 299 PAs since June 1.
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Post by manfred on Sept 8, 2023 16:55:13 GMT -5
Isn’t WAR replacement at your position? So Casas being many things that many 1b are should not hurt him as much, no? Am I misunderstanding?
That is, am I wrong that the relative value of your defensive position doesn’t matter? And since few 1b are fleet of foot, his running shouldn’t lower his WAR much? Or am I not getting how it is calculated?
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Post by incandenza on Sept 8, 2023 16:57:40 GMT -5
There's an oddly fine line between decent regular and superstar at first base. Last season Freddie Freeman had a 158 wRC+ and +1 OAA and that was good for 7 WAR. Meanwhile, Nathaniel Lowe had a 141 wRC+ and -11 OAA and that was good for only 2.9 WAR.
Casas has a 149 wRC+ since May 1st. If he's slightly worse than that next season and his defense doesn't improve he's maybe a 3 WAR player. But if he continues to hit like he has the last couple of months (177 wRC+ since July 1st) and gets to be the average defender the scouting report says he could be it's not hard to imagine him having a 7 WAR season.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 8, 2023 16:58:18 GMT -5
Isn’t WAR replacement at your position? So Casas being many things that many 1b are should not hurt him as much, no? Am I misunderstanding? That is, am I wrong that the relative value of your defensive position doesn’t matter? And since few 1b are fleet of foot, his running shouldn’t lower his WAR much? Or am I not getting how it is calculated? I'm not sure but I've always kind of thought the same thing. A "replacement" level 1st baseman would seem to me a lot different than a "replacement" level CF or at least it would seem that way to me. An absolutely dreadful fielding CF is going to sink a team a lot more than a dreadful fielding 1st baseman.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 8, 2023 16:59:31 GMT -5
Nitpicking a little but putting guys like Colson Montgomery in a category above Duran and Bello seems unfair. Camilo Doval is more valuable than Bello? No thanks. Not gonna sweat about the article obviously but that's silly. Red Sox are moving fine. They'll be solid again next year, probably incrementally better. The MLB team or the farm system? The farm I'd agree with, MLB, not so much. I'm not sure you can consider a .500ish team "solid," unless we mean solidly in the middle of the AL. Yes, they aren't the As, but their budget is nearly 5x larger, and 12th overall in MLB against the tax ( according to Cots). I mean you're just nitpicking on semantics here. Yeah I consider an 84 or whatever win team solid (evidenced by the word "again"). I think they'll be a little better than that. If you're typing this in response to "solid" you're just looking for an argument.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 8, 2023 17:02:12 GMT -5
The MLB team or the farm system? The farm I'd agree with, MLB, not so much. I'm not sure you can consider a .500ish team "solid," unless we mean solidly in the middle of the AL. Yes, they aren't the As, but their budget is nearly 5x larger, and 12th overall in MLB against the tax ( according to Cots). I mean you're just nitpicking on semantics here. Yeah I consider an 84 or whatever win team solid (evidenced by the word "again"). I think they'll be a little better than that. If you're typing this in response to "solid" you're just looking for an argument. No, I wasn't sure if you meant the farm or the MLB team. As for the MLB team, the definition of "solid" is open to interpretation.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 8, 2023 17:05:27 GMT -5
Isn’t WAR replacement at your position? So Casas being many things that many 1b are should not hurt him as much, no? Am I misunderstanding? That is, am I wrong that the relative value of your defensive position doesn’t matter? And since few 1b are fleet of foot, his running shouldn’t lower his WAR much? Or am I not getting how it is calculated? I think it cuts both ways: a really fast first baseman would stand out; their speed would be an unexpected source of value. But that's not Casas. And on the other hand, most first basemen can mash at least a little bit - the median qualifying first baseman last season had a 120 wRC+ - so to stand out on offense you have to really kill it as a hitter.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 8, 2023 17:16:54 GMT -5
There's an oddly fine line between decent regular and superstar at first base. Last season Freddie Freeman had a 158 wRC+ and +1 OAA and that was good for 7 WAR. Meanwhile, Nathaniel Lowe had a 141 wRC+ and -11 OAA and that was good for only 2.9 WAR. Casas has a 149 wRC+ since May 1st. If he's slightly worse than that next season and his defense doesn't improve he's maybe a 3 WAR player. But if he continues to hit like he has the last couple of months (177 wRC+ since July 1st) and gets to be the average defender the scouting report says he could be it's not hard to imagine him having a 7 WAR season.
+1 and -11 don't seem to be a "fine line," however. I think most teams would take the better offense and live with the sub-optimal defense, especially at a position where MLB players in general have relatively meh to bad defense. fWAR is what it is, but the stat does purport to measure the player on both sides of the ball as compared to a replacement level player. For example, Freeman this year (so far) is plus 1 in OAA while Olsen is -5. Sure, their offense has some separation - Olsen, has a wRC+ 155 vs. Freeman's 165 and an OBP 0.33 lower, but he also has 22 more HRs (and has been much more unlucky that Freeman with BABIP. But the difference in their fWAR? Freeman 6.8 Olsen 5.0 This wide gap seems to be almost all chalked up to how fWAR values defense.
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 8, 2023 17:27:01 GMT -5
There's an oddly fine line between decent regular and superstar at first base. Last season Freddie Freeman had a 158 wRC+ and +1 OAA and that was good for 7 WAR. Meanwhile, Nathaniel Lowe had a 141 wRC+ and -11 OAA and that was good for only 2.9 WAR. Casas has a 149 wRC+ since May 1st. If he's slightly worse than that next season and his defense doesn't improve he's maybe a 3 WAR player. But if he continues to hit like he has the last couple of months (177 wRC+ since July 1st) and gets to be the average defender the scouting report says he could be it's not hard to imagine him having a 7 WAR season.
+1 and -11 don't seem to be a "fine line," however. I think most teams would take the better offense and live with the sub-optimal defense, especially at a position where MLB players in general have relatively meh to bad defense. fWAR is what it is, but the stat does purport to measure the player on both sides of the ball as compared to a replacement level player. For example, Freeman this year (so far) is plus 1 in OAA while Olsen is -5. Sure, their offense has some separation - Olsen, has a wRC+ 155 vs. Freeman's 165 and an OBP 0.33 lower, but he also has 22 more HRs (and has been much more unlucky that Freeman with BABIP. But the difference in their fWAR? Freeman 6.8 Olsen 5.0 This wide gap seems to be almost all chalked up to how fWAR values defense. He’s also got 4 baserunning runs on Olson, too. 1.8 additional WAR from 6 runs on D, 4 runs on the bases, and 10 points of wRC+ over the course of a season sounds about right to me.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 8, 2023 18:40:34 GMT -5
+1 and -11 don't seem to be a "fine line," however. I think most teams would take the better offense and live with the sub-optimal defense, especially at a position where MLB players in general have relatively meh to bad defense. fWAR is what it is, but the stat does purport to measure the player on both sides of the ball as compared to a replacement level player. For example, Freeman this year (so far) is plus 1 in OAA while Olsen is -5. Sure, their offense has some separation - Olsen, has a wRC+ 155 vs. Freeman's 165 and an OBP 0.33 lower, but he also has 22 more HRs (and has been much more unlucky that Freeman with BABIP. But the difference in their fWAR? Freeman 6.8 Olsen 5.0 This wide gap seems to be almost all chalked up to how fWAR values defense. He’s also got 4 baserunning runs on Olson, too. 1.8 additional WAR from 6 runs on D, 4 runs on the bases, and 10 points of wRC+ over the course of a season sounds about right to me. What seems so odd to me is that the vast bulk of qualifying first basemen are poor to bad defenders. Not long ago, there were more than a few who were automatic over there with good to decent range. That was offset by guys late in their careers who had been more or less shuffled over to first in the non-DH league. It's almost like catcher offense, which used to be better, too. Sad, but it does leave opportunity to upgrade defense at first with better development and instruction in the minors. As for catchers and hitting, I think the value play is to find guys who can hit - or at least get on base at better than a .300ish OBP and convert them to catchers.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 8, 2023 20:36:51 GMT -5
I mean you're just nitpicking on semantics here. Yeah I consider an 84 or whatever win team solid (evidenced by the word "again"). I think they'll be a little better than that. If you're typing this in response to "solid" you're just looking for an argument. No, I wasn't sure if you meant the farm or the MLB team. As for the MLB team, the definition of "solid" is open to interpretation. Not only that, but the goal shouldn't be to be solid, especially when you have the resources the Red Sox have. It should be to be good, which to me means 90 W's. And even that doesn't get you close to what I'd call a top contender to win the WS. In today's game, there are four of those, IMO. Those would be the four teams with the first-round bye, thereby getting a chance to rest their pitching and dodging the risk of getting knocked out early. YMMV.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 8, 2023 22:21:11 GMT -5
There's an oddly fine line between decent regular and superstar at first base. Last season Freddie Freeman had a 158 wRC+ and +1 OAA and that was good for 7 WAR. Meanwhile, Nathaniel Lowe had a 141 wRC+ and -11 OAA and that was good for only 2.9 WAR. Casas has a 149 wRC+ since May 1st. If he's slightly worse than that next season and his defense doesn't improve he's maybe a 3 WAR player. But if he continues to hit like he has the last couple of months (177 wRC+ since July 1st) and gets to be the average defender the scouting report says he could be it's not hard to imagine him having a 7 WAR season.
+1 and -11 don't seem to be a "fine line," however. I think most teams would take the better offense and live with the sub-optimal defense, especially at a position where MLB players in general have relatively meh to bad defense. fWAR is what it is, but the stat does purport to measure the player on both sides of the ball as compared to a replacement level player. For example, Freeman this year (so far) is plus 1 in OAA while Olsen is -5. Sure, their offense has some separation - Olsen, has a wRC+ 155 vs. Freeman's 165 and an OBP 0.33 lower, but he also has 22 more HRs (and has been much more unlucky that Freeman with BABIP. But the difference in their fWAR? Freeman 6.8 Olsen 5.0 This wide gap seems to be almost all chalked up to how fWAR values defense. It's not that the defensive runs aren't significant; it's that the defensive performances (and also the defensive stats) are so volatile. I wouldn't be surprised if Casas is like -8 next year, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was +2. (Heck, in the same year Freeman was +1 OAA he was also -7 DRS
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Post by keninten on Sept 8, 2023 23:30:41 GMT -5
He’s also got 4 baserunning runs on Olson, too. 1.8 additional WAR from 6 runs on D, 4 runs on the bases, and 10 points of wRC+ over the course of a season sounds about right to me. What seems so odd to me is that the vast bulk of qualifying first basemen are poor to bad defenders. Not long ago, there were more than a few who were automatic over there with good to decent range. That was offset by guys late in their careers who had been more or less shuffled over to first in the non-DH league. It's almost like catcher offense, which used to be better, too. Sad, but it does leave opportunity to upgrade defense at first with better development and instruction in the minors. As for catchers and hitting, I think the value play is to find guys who can hit - or at least get on base at better than a .300ish OBP and convert them to catchers.I don`t know if you can realistically do that. Would be interesting to know how many players have been "converted" successfully before. Seems they would have to have played the position in HS or college.
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 9, 2023 1:04:36 GMT -5
What seems so odd to me is that the vast bulk of qualifying first basemen are poor to bad defenders. Not long ago, there were more than a few who were automatic over there with good to decent range. That was offset by guys late in their careers who had been more or less shuffled over to first in the non-DH league. It's almost like catcher offense, which used to be better, too. Sad, but it does leave opportunity to upgrade defense at first with better development and instruction in the minors. As for catchers and hitting, I think the value play is to find guys who can hit - or at least get on base at better than a .300ish OBP and convert them to catchers.I don`t know if you can realistically do that. Would be interesting to know how many players have been "converted" successfully before. Seems they would have to have played the position in HS or college. Isnt the whole reason it’s okay for catchers to suck at hitting because learning how to catch at the major league is incredibly difficult?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 9, 2023 8:20:29 GMT -5
I see an easy way for Bloom to improve the team, doing what he's been afraid to do for four years, spend on pitching. His MO is get the bare minimum, you need to get enough that it seems overkill. Guys that are reliable and will give you innings. I wouldn't go crazy, but you have to spend money. Guys like ERod. Whitlock and Houck in the bullpen. Trade Verdugo. The hard part is D, Devers and Casas need to improve. Signing a LF who's crap on D even though you like his bat makes that harder. Resign Duval, but keep him away from CF. If Bloom had traded Turner things would be easier.
He also needs to stop with claiming so many fringe players. The negative war of the bad ones cancel out the value of the one he finds.
We'll see if he can learn from his mistakes. He's got enough cost controlled talent and money to build a good team. He just needs to actually use the Red Sox money and do it in an effective way, especially on the pitching side. In a way I feel bad for him, he's not a terrible GM. He just wasn't ready to take over a big market team like the Red Sox. He also needs to look at win now trades, I'm still waiting for the creative Bloom to come out. It's there, Turner for Maimi pitching, he just doesn't pull the trigger. He targeted two good pitching options and didn't get either, ends up with Kluber. I have my doubts, I truly hope to be proven wrong. We get more of the same next year, I'm done with him!
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Post by Guidas on Sept 9, 2023 8:51:33 GMT -5
What seems so odd to me is that the vast bulk of qualifying first basemen are poor to bad defenders. Not long ago, there were more than a few who were automatic over there with good to decent range. That was offset by guys late in their careers who had been more or less shuffled over to first in the non-DH league. It's almost like catcher offense, which used to be better, too. Sad, but it does leave opportunity to upgrade defense at first with better development and instruction in the minors. As for catchers and hitting, I think the value play is to find guys who can hit - or at least get on base at better than a .300ish OBP and convert them to catchers.I don`t know if you can realistically do that. Would be interesting to know how many players have been "converted" successfully before. Seems they would have to have played the position in HS or college. It would definitely have to be done in HS or first-second year in college. They used to tell us that "catching was the fast track to getting drafted." ADDED: If the automatic K-zone/RoboUmps become the rule and not a challenge system, it may be a little easier to convert players to catchers. The framing goes away and we’re down to receiving the ball, throwing out runners and calling a game - although I’ve long been a proponent of pitchers studying the batters and their proclivities and calling their own games like Schilling did.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 9, 2023 21:20:15 GMT -5
Re; The bolded, they were? Dombrowski's era did not sign Devers, the team signed him in 2013. So you're giving him credit for Moncada who was kind of a unicorn that the Red Sox just paid the most money for and... Darwinzon Hernandez? I'm not sure his drafts were poor but I'm also not sure they're particularly impressive. I do agree Cherington's drafts weren't too hot. He drafted Casas and Houck, right? And he got Duran and Kutter Crawford with later picks. He drafted Dalbec. That collection is from three years. Then a bunch of guys who have subsequently been traded. And he signed Bello, Rafaela, and Paulino. Put differently, there could be a point this season when Bello, Houck, and Crawford are starting… all DD. Casas at 1b, Dalbec could be playing, Rafaela might even get time. Duran… who knows, but he has been a top-5 guy in the last year or so. It’s not bad. The Prophesy has nearly been fulfilled.
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Post by briam on Sept 12, 2023 10:31:50 GMT -5
Carrabis mentioned on his last podcast that he went digging and asked folks around the Sox about Chaim’s future (who knows what type of folks he talked to) and not one person said they believe Chaim is here in November. Henry is on record saying it doesn’t make sense having a front office on the last year of their deal so I think it’s safe to assume we’ll know Chaim’s fate in the next month or so. IF they move on, who are some realistic targets to head the front office moving forward?
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 12, 2023 10:39:01 GMT -5
Carrabis mentioned on his last podcast that he went digging and asked folks around the Sox about Chaim’s future (who knows what type of folks he talked to) and not one person said they believe Chaim is here in November. Henry is on record saying it doesn’t make sense having a front office on the last year of their deal so I think it’s safe to assume we’ll know Chaim’s fate in the next month or so. IF they move on, who are some realistic targets to head the front office moving forward? The only name I've really seen thrown around for a potential in demand front office role around the league is David Stearns the Brewers former president of baseball ops. He's done a rather good job with that team and that market size, if he's a realistic option I feel like the Sox have to be involved on him if they do move on from Bloom. Outside of him your guess is as good as mine, I can't think of any other former POBO/GM elsewhere that might be available that had success. Would Henry go back to the drawing board with another Chaim Bloom type of hire? In that I mean a young up and comer who hasn't been the head of a baseball operations department before.
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Sept 12, 2023 10:46:35 GMT -5
Carrabis mentioned on his last podcast that he went digging and asked folks around the Sox about Chaim’s future (who knows what type of folks he talked to) and not one person said they believe Chaim is here in November. Henry is on record saying it doesn’t make sense having a front office on the last year of their deal so I think it’s safe to assume we’ll know Chaim’s fate in the next month or so. IF they move on, who are some realistic targets to head the front office moving forward? If they move on from Chaim I'd expect an Eddie Romero promotion.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 12, 2023 11:28:14 GMT -5
Carrabis mentioned on his last podcast that he went digging and asked folks around the Sox about Chaim’s future (who knows what type of folks he talked to) and not one person said they believe Chaim is here in November. Henry is on record saying it doesn’t make sense having a front office on the last year of their deal so I think it’s safe to assume we’ll know Chaim’s fate in the next month or so. IF they move on, who are some realistic targets to head the front office moving forward? This is my question. I see Mr. Bloom as not bad/not great but a simply average POBBO. The league is filled with those. If you're walking away from a CEO because you want demonstrably better results, it has to be someone who has shown an ability to deliver that. Stearns seems like a different shade of the same - a guy who produced success on a lower budget club, with a big emphasis on developing pitching and defense. Isn't that exactly what Henry and Werner hired in 2019?
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 12, 2023 11:36:11 GMT -5
Carrabis mentioned on his last podcast that he went digging and asked folks around the Sox about Chaim’s future (who knows what type of folks he talked to) and not one person said they believe Chaim is here in November. Henry is on record saying it doesn’t make sense having a front office on the last year of their deal so I think it’s safe to assume we’ll know Chaim’s fate in the next month or so. IF they move on, who are some realistic targets to head the front office moving forward? This is my question. I see Mr. Bloom as not bad/not great but a simply average POBBO. The league is filled with those. If you're walking away from a CEO because you want demonstrably better results, it has to be someone who has shown an ability to deliver that. Stearns seems like a different shade of the same - a guy who produced success on a lower budget club, with a big emphasis on developing pitching and defense. Isn't that exactly what Henry and Werner hired in 2019? I generally agree with the premise here (even if I'm a little more bullish on Bloom's performance than you). This is what I mean by saying firing Bloom would be a mainly PR move. What is the point of shaking up the front office again for another mystery guy? If there's a superstar candidate out there okay maybe. Otherwise I think the continuity is more valuable.
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