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Evaluating the Front Office and Ownership
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 13, 2023 14:34:23 GMT -5
I just don’t think any of us know nearly as much about running a baseball team as we pretend to, so I think it’s silly to say “there’s no justification for that” or “you have to do this in xyz scenario.” I get that that premise doesn’t exactly foster interesting discussions, but, as evidenced by the 83 pages (edit: now 84. whoops) of this thread, we’re mostly just navel gazing here anyway.
In baseball, success comes from following a pretty simple formula: develop good young players for cheap and supplement them with solid veterans who stay healthy and productive. Extend your youngsters, if they’re amenable, to keep the payroll down. It’s a simple formula, but hard to pull off.
In all these 83 pages, I’ve seen precious little about how the current front office has moved the team away from achieving that formula, nor much about how different moves would’ve moved them closer to it. And no, trading overpaid, underperforming veterans for amorphous “prospects for the future” doesn’t count. Someone has to want those guys enough to give you pieces that are worth your while! (As an aside, I know that getting under the tax would’ve given them a little bit more spending room in the draft, but in one single draft, the value is marginal. There’s a chance one of those 2nd round comp picks would’ve hit where the 4th rounders won’t, but there was also a chance JD Martinez would fix his swing and hit 20 homers in the second half to carry them to the playoffs. I haven’t seen anything at all convincing that there’s a significant value loss there.)
Like, I don’t see what moves Bloom and Co. could’ve made that would’ve made Bobby Dalbec, Michael Chavis, and Connor Seabold good players, kept JD hitting like it’s 2018, or fixed Chris Sale’s arm and E-Rod’s heart. You can deal with injured/underperforming veterans or bad young talent, but when you have to deal with both you’re going to struggle. It’s just an unavoidable outcome given how the game has developed over the past two decades, and no amount of crying that “these are the Boston Red Sox, they should be winning championships every year!” is going to change that. Acting like they deserve a get out of jail free card because they’re a historically successful franchise, and that the front office is deficient for not getting it, is silly.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 13, 2023 14:41:45 GMT -5
I just don’t think any of us know nearly as much about running a baseball team as we pretend to, so I think it’s silly to say “there’s no justification for that” or “you have to do this in xyz scenario.” I get that that premise doesn’t exactly foster interesting discussions, but, as evidenced by the 83 pages (edit: now 84. whoops) of this thread, we’re mostly just navel gazing here anyway. In baseball, success comes from following a pretty simple formula: develop good young players for cheap and supplement them with solid veterans who stay healthy and productive. Extend your youngsters, if they’re amenable, to keep the payroll down. It’s a simple formula, but hard to pull off. In all these 83 pages, I’ve seen precious little about how the current front office has moved the team away from achieving that formula, nor much about how different moves would’ve moved them closer to it. And no, trading overpaid, underperforming veterans for amorphous “prospects for the future” doesn’t count. Someone has to want those guys enough to give you pieces that are worth your while! (As an aside, I know that getting under the tax would’ve given them a little bit more spending room in the draft, but in one single draft, the value is marginal. There’s a chance one of those 2nd round comp picks would’ve hit where the 4th rounders won’t, but there was also a chance JD Martinez would fix his swing and hit 20 homers in the second half to carry them to the playoffs. I haven’t seen anything at all convincing that there’s a significant value loss there.) Like, I don’t see what moves Bloom and Co. could’ve made that would’ve made Bobby Dalbec, Michael Chavis, and Connor Seabold good players, kept JD hitting like it’s 2018, or fixed Chris Sale’s arm and E-Rod’s heart. You can deal with injured/underperforming veterans or bad young talent, but when you have to deal with both you’re going to struggle. It’s just an unavoidable outcome given how the game has developed over the past two decades, and no amount of crying that “these are the Boston Red Sox, they should be winning championships every year!” is going to change that. Acting like they deserve a get out of jail free card because they’re a historically successful franchise, and that the front office is deficient for not getting it, is silly. What do you mean? My MLB the Show Red Sox franchise squad is an absolute juggernaut!
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Post by Guidas on Sept 13, 2023 14:55:32 GMT -5
I just don’t think any of us know nearly as much about running a baseball team as we pretend to, so I think it’s silly to say “there’s no justification for that” or “you have to do this in xyz scenario.” I get that that premise doesn’t exactly foster interesting discussions, but, as evidenced by the 83 pages (edit: now 84. whoops) of this thread, we’re mostly just navel gazing here anyway. In baseball, success comes from following a pretty simple formula: develop good young players for cheap and supplement them with solid veterans who stay healthy and productive. Extend your youngsters, if they’re amenable, to keep the payroll down. It’s a simple formula, but hard to pull off. In all these 83 pages, I’ve seen precious little about how the current front office has moved the team away from achieving that formula, nor much about how different moves would’ve moved them closer to it. And no, trading overpaid, underperforming veterans for amorphous “prospects for the future” doesn’t count. Someone has to want those guys enough to give you pieces that are worth your while! (As an aside, I know that getting under the tax would’ve given them a little bit more spending room in the draft, but in one single draft, the value is marginal. There’s a chance one of those 2nd round comp picks would’ve hit where the 4th rounders won’t, but there was also a chance JD Martinez would fix his swing and hit 20 homers in the second half to carry them to the playoffs. I haven’t seen anything at all convincing that there’s a significant value loss there.) Like, I don’t see what moves Bloom and Co. could’ve made that would’ve made Bobby Dalbec, Michael Chavis, and Connor Seabold good players, kept JD hitting like it’s 2018, or fixed Chris Sale’s arm and E-Rod’s heart. You can deal with injured/underperforming veterans or bad young talent, but when you have to deal with both you’re going to struggle. It’s just an unavoidable outcome given how the game has developed over the past two decades, and no amount of crying that “these are the Boston Red Sox, they should be winning championships every year!” is going to change that. Acting like they deserve a get out of jail free card because they’re a historically successful franchise, and that the front office is deficient for not getting it, is silly. Well, and winning on the field consistently year to year. And the "healthy" part is not simple by any means on any team.
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 13, 2023 14:57:25 GMT -5
guidas what are you even saying there. obviously success in baseball and winning games on the field means the same thing
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Post by manfred on Sept 13, 2023 15:03:21 GMT -5
I just don’t think any of us know nearly as much about running a baseball team as we pretend to, so I think it’s silly to say “there’s no justification for that” or “you have to do this in xyz scenario.” I get that that premise doesn’t exactly foster interesting discussions, but, as evidenced by the 83 pages (edit: now 84. whoops) of this thread, we’re mostly just navel gazing here anyway. In baseball, success comes from following a pretty simple formula: develop good young players for cheap and supplement them with solid veterans who stay healthy and productive. Extend your youngsters, if they’re amenable, to keep the payroll down. It’s a simple formula, but hard to pull off. In all these 83 pages, I’ve seen precious little about how the current front office has moved the team away from achieving that formula, nor much about how different moves would’ve moved them closer to it. And no, trading overpaid, underperforming veterans for amorphous “prospects for the future” doesn’t count. Someone has to want those guys enough to give you pieces that are worth your while! (As an aside, I know that getting under the tax would’ve given them a little bit more spending room in the draft, but in one single draft, the value is marginal. There’s a chance one of those 2nd round comp picks would’ve hit where the 4th rounders won’t, but there was also a chance JD Martinez would fix his swing and hit 20 homers in the second half to carry them to the playoffs. I haven’t seen anything at all convincing that there’s a significant value loss there.) Like, I don’t see what moves Bloom and Co. could’ve made that would’ve made Bobby Dalbec, Michael Chavis, and Connor Seabold good players, kept JD hitting like it’s 2018, or fixed Chris Sale’s arm and E-Rod’s heart. You can deal with injured/underperforming veterans or bad young talent, but when you have to deal with both you’re going to struggle. It’s just an unavoidable outcome given how the game has developed over the past two decades, and no amount of crying that “these are the Boston Red Sox, they should be winning championships every year!” is going to change that. Acting like they deserve a get out of jail free card because they’re a historically successful franchise, and that the front office is deficient for not getting it, is silly. I think we are fans. Fans know what a fun season is and what a crap season is. They know how little fun it is to watch Kiké butcher SS, etc. The long game is great. But the average male lives about 72 years. Scrap the first ten, when you likely aren’t heavily engaged. Let’s say you get about 62 Sox teams. If you are closer to the 72 than not (as I am), and you may be looking at about 20 teams, punting 2 years, 3 years whatever, is not as easy to applaud. I get all the calculus etc, but this is paid entertainment. If a movie study said “we’re putting out multiple s€£t movies but it is letting us hoard resources for a real blockbuster” people would wonder why they should stay engaged. This team, as I’ve said before, is neither very good nor very interesting the last few years. That may be changing with Casas and Bello, etc, so that’s good. But most fans aren’t as fired up for prospects. If you polled Fenway tonight, how many would know who Bleis is? Why should we watch if we are waiting on Mayer et al? There is some responsibility to put a real contender in front of people who are spending big bucks to watch.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 13, 2023 15:15:25 GMT -5
guidas what are you even saying there. obviously success in baseball and winning games on the field means the same thing OK, wasn't so obvious to me the way you stated it. And really, I'm not trying to be difficult here but you said for success to occur, it's a pretty simply formula. Yet lot of teams in the league follow this formula, but very few win with it. This seems like a great formula to get to somewhere between 75 and 85 wins consistently, but there's got to be something else to create the success you started with, at least on a consistent basis. There's a variable or two not in there. ADDED: At least one team has defied this formula off and on and won 29 out of the last 30 years, as much as I truly hate them. Not saying their model is great or even something anyone should emulate, but there are years in there where they had great success in terms of number of regular season wins with few young players they developed.
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 13, 2023 15:59:53 GMT -5
guidas what are you even saying there. obviously success in baseball and winning games on the field means the same thing OK, wasn't so obvious to me the way you stated it. And really, I'm not trying to be difficult here but you said for success to occur, it's a pretty simply formula. Yet lot of teams in the league follow this formula, but very few win with it. This seems like a great formula to get to somewhere between 75 and 85 wins consistently, but there's got to be something else to create the success you started with, at least on a consistent basis. There's a variable or two not in there. ADDED: At least one team has defied this formula off and on and won 29 out of the last 30 years, as much as I truly hate them. Not saying their model is great or even something anyone should emulate, but there are years in there where they had great success in terms of number of regular season wins with few young players they developed. Well I did say it’s a simple formula that’s hard to execute. Even the Yankees have needed to follow it. Jeter, Rivera, Posada, Bernie Williams, Sanchez, Judge, Pettite, Severino, Cano, Robertson, Gardner, Orlando Hernandez, even someone like Phil Hughes—they’ve relied heavily on good, controllable talent throughout that whole period. And they’ve still only won a single World Series in two decades despite spending more than anyone in the league year after year after year. Even the 2021 Red Sox are a perfect example—it’s the only season they’ve actually been good under Bloom, because it’s the only season their veterans were mostly healthy and productive. They got decent-or-better performances out of the likes of Dalbec, Devers, Barnes, Whitlock, ERod, Darwinzon, Pivetta and Houck for under $30 million combined, Kiké/JD/Xander/Eovaldi were all great (Schwarber for the second half, too) and even some of the scrap heap finds worked out.
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Post by manfred on Sept 13, 2023 16:04:32 GMT -5
OK, wasn't so obvious to me the way you stated it. And really, I'm not trying to be difficult here but you said for success to occur, it's a pretty simply formula. Yet lot of teams in the league follow this formula, but very few win with it. This seems like a great formula to get to somewhere between 75 and 85 wins consistently, but there's got to be something else to create the success you started with, at least on a consistent basis. There's a variable or two not in there. ADDED: At least one team has defied this formula off and on and won 29 out of the last 30 years, as much as I truly hate them. Not saying their model is great or even something anyone should emulate, but there are years in there where they had great success in terms of number of regular season wins with few young players they developed. Well I did say it’s a simple formula that’s hard to execute. Even the Yankees have needed to follow it. Jeter, Rivera, Posada, Bernie Williams, Sanchez, Judge, Pettite, Severino, Cano, Robertson, Gardner, Orlando Hernandez, even someone like Phil Hughes—they’ve relied heavily on good, controllable talent throughout that whole period. And they’ve still only won a single World Series in two decades despite spending more than anyone in the league year after year after year. Even the 2021 Red Sox are a perfect example—it’s the only season they’ve actually been good under Bloom, because it’s the only season their veterans were mostly healthy and productive. They got decent-or-better performances out of the likes of Dalbec, Devers, Barnes, Whitlock, ERod, Darwinzon, Pivetta and Houck for under $30 million combined, Kiké/JD/Xander/Eovaldi were all great (Schwarber for the second half, too) and even some of the scrap heap finds worked out. That list of Yankees is like saying the Sox have followed it with Boggs, Clemens, Nomar, and Devers. You are naming a 30 year spread. So I’m not sure how it relates to a snapshot of a team in a season.
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 13, 2023 16:05:24 GMT -5
signing a FA SP to a huge $$$ is like playing Russian roulette
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 13, 2023 17:10:29 GMT -5
I just don’t think any of us know nearly as much about running a baseball team as we pretend to, so I think it’s silly to say “there’s no justification for that” or “you have to do this in xyz scenario.” I get that that premise doesn’t exactly foster interesting discussions, but, as evidenced by the 83 pages (edit: now 84. whoops) of this thread, we’re mostly just navel gazing here anyway. In baseball, success comes from following a pretty simple formula: develop good young players for cheap and supplement them with solid veterans who stay healthy and productive. Extend your youngsters, if they’re amenable, to keep the payroll down. It’s a simple formula, but hard to pull off. In all these 83 pages, I’ve seen precious little about how the current front office has moved the team away from achieving that formula, nor much about how different moves would’ve moved them closer to it. And no, trading overpaid, underperforming veterans for amorphous “prospects for the future” doesn’t count. Someone has to want those guys enough to give you pieces that are worth your while! (As an aside, I know that getting under the tax would’ve given them a little bit more spending room in the draft, but in one single draft, the value is marginal. There’s a chance one of those 2nd round comp picks would’ve hit where the 4th rounders won’t, but there was also a chance JD Martinez would fix his swing and hit 20 homers in the second half to carry them to the playoffs. I haven’t seen anything at all convincing that there’s a significant value loss there.) Like, I don’t see what moves Bloom and Co. could’ve made that would’ve made Bobby Dalbec, Michael Chavis, and Connor Seabold good players, kept JD hitting like it’s 2018, or fixed Chris Sale’s arm and E-Rod’s heart. You can deal with injured/underperforming veterans or bad young talent, but when you have to deal with both you’re going to struggle. It’s just an unavoidable outcome given how the game has developed over the past two decades, and no amount of crying that “these are the Boston Red Sox, they should be winning championships every year!” is going to change that. Acting like they deserve a get out of jail free card because they’re a historically successful franchise, and that the front office is deficient for not getting it, is silly. I think we are fans. Fans know what a fun season is and what a crap season is. They know how little fun it is to watch Kiké butcher SS, etc. The long game is great. But the average male lives about 72 years. Scrap the first ten, when you likely aren’t heavily engaged. Let’s say you get about 62 Sox teams. If you are closer to the 72 than not (as I am), and you may be looking at about 20 teams, punting 2 years, 3 years whatever, is not as easy to applaud. I get all the calculus etc, but this is paid entertainment. If a movie study said “we’re putting out multiple s€£t movies but it is letting us hoard resources for a real blockbuster” people would wonder why they should stay engaged. This team, as I’ve said before, is neither very good nor very interesting the last few years. That may be changing with Casas and Bello, etc, so that’s good. But most fans aren’t as fired up for prospects. If you polled Fenway tonight, how many would know who Bleis is? Why should we watch if we are waiting on Mayer et al? There is some responsibility to put a real contender in front of people who are spending big bucks to watch. I think they’ve done about as well as could be reasonably expected with what was already locked in for the roster. Kiké at shortstop was, what, Plan F? I think Xander at 6/162 is still a bad contract, so I have no qualms about him leaving. It’s just that none of the backup plans worked out either. In the rotation, I don’t think they planned for Tanner Houck breaking his face or Corey Kluber going from serviceable to totally useless in one offseason. And they guys they offered the most money to this offseason ended up pitching great! I don’t think you can ding the front office for Zach Eflin wanting to go home to Florida. I get that I’m lucky enough to have the patience of youth, but at the same time, I’m curious what you expect them to do when they haven’t had anyone ready to contribute from the farm and have had the payroll cluttered with overpaid, underperforming veterans who can’t stay healthy. That’s a good recipe for being a terrible team! If your answer is that John Henry should commit to $300m payrolls for the foreseeable future, it’s certainly not my place to tell you you can’t feel that way, but I don’t think it’s particularly realistic, and it’s not guaranteed to work anyway. Hell, they pushed the boat out for Story, Devers, and Yoshida, and they’ve all been disappointments this year. Same thing for most of the other big contracts signed this offseason.
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Post by manfred on Sept 13, 2023 17:16:56 GMT -5
I think we are fans. Fans know what a fun season is and what a crap season is. They know how little fun it is to watch Kiké butcher SS, etc. The long game is great. But the average male lives about 72 years. Scrap the first ten, when you likely aren’t heavily engaged. Let’s say you get about 62 Sox teams. If you are closer to the 72 than not (as I am), and you may be looking at about 20 teams, punting 2 years, 3 years whatever, is not as easy to applaud. I get all the calculus etc, but this is paid entertainment. If a movie study said “we’re putting out multiple s€£t movies but it is letting us hoard resources for a real blockbuster” people would wonder why they should stay engaged. This team, as I’ve said before, is neither very good nor very interesting the last few years. That may be changing with Casas and Bello, etc, so that’s good. But most fans aren’t as fired up for prospects. If you polled Fenway tonight, how many would know who Bleis is? Why should we watch if we are waiting on Mayer et al? There is some responsibility to put a real contender in front of people who are spending big bucks to watch. I think they’ve done about as well as could be reasonably expected with what was already locked in for the roster. Kiké at shortstop was, what, Plan F? I think Xander at 6/162 is still a bad contract, so I have no qualms about him leaving. It’s just that none of the backup plans worked out either. In the rotation, I don’t think they planned for Tanner Houck breaking his face or Corey Kluber going from serviceable to totally useless in one offseason. And they guys they offered the most money to this offseason ended up pitching great! I don’t think you can ding the front office for Zach Eflin wanting to go home to Florida. I get that I’m lucky enough to have the patience of youth, but at the same time, I’m curious what you expect them to do when they haven’t had anyone ready to contribute from the farm and have had the payroll cluttered with overpaid, underperforming veterans who can’t stay healthy. That’s a good recipe for being a terrible team! If your answer is that John Henry should commit to $300m payrolls for the foreseeable future, it’s certainly not my place to tell you you can’t feel that way, but I don’t think it’s particularly realistic, and it’s not guaranteed to work anyway. Hell, they pushed the boat out for Story, Devers, and Yoshida, and they’ve all been disappointments this year. Same thing for most of the other big contracts signed this offseason. Cluttered with overpaid, underperforming veterans… who is responsible for that? Sale was DD. Who else? Story? Paxton? Kluber? Kiké? Yoshida? You *seem* to be saying somehow they were let down… by the team they created!! That is not a defense. And — again — just as I don’t direct the movie but still want it not to suck, as a consumer, I am not primarily responsible for telling Bloom how to do a better job. I am, if I am paying for the product, entitled to say I’m not getting my money’s worth.
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 13, 2023 17:22:05 GMT -5
so yah.....
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 13, 2023 17:50:21 GMT -5
How would getting under the LT last year have effected the payroll flexibility going forward at this point? I don't disagree on the other points though. The power of hindsight says they should have traded away anyone not bolted down last year and once again this year too. Certainly true in a sense: since they flamed out both this year and last, it would have been nice to get a little more value out of those lost seasons.
But it's also fun to consider hindsight in the alternate universe: imagine two seasons a row in which the Red Sox have 25-30% playoff odds at the deadline; two seasons in a row in which Bloom trades away star players to add prospects; two seasons in a row in which the team immediately collapses after the trade deadline. Public perceptions would be BRUTAL.
Well, I was at Winter Weekend in January and the reception for Bloom, JWH and Sam K. was pretty brutal. There was sarcastic laughter when Bloom would try to make a point. Other times when he'd say something people would just wave their hands dismissively like you might do to a kid making silly excuses about his report card. My point is it's not like he has august public relations now. I'm not sure it would be any worse. I expect to see more of the same if I go again this coming January.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 13, 2023 17:55:50 GMT -5
Certainly true in a sense: since they flamed out both this year and last, it would have been nice to get a little more value out of those lost seasons.
But it's also fun to consider hindsight in the alternate universe: imagine two seasons a row in which the Red Sox have 25-30% playoff odds at the deadline; two seasons in a row in which Bloom trades away star players to add prospects; two seasons in a row in which the team immediately collapses after the trade deadline. Public perceptions would be BRUTAL.
Well, I was at Winter Weekend in January and the reception for Bloom, JWH and Sam K. was pretty brutal. There was sarcastic laughter when Bloom would try to make a point. Other times when he'd say something people would just wave their hands dismissively like you might do to a kid making silly excuses about his report card. My point is it's not like he has august public relations now. I'm not sure it would be any worse. I expect to see more of the same if I go again this coming January. Had he done what's described in the hypothetical I think his odds of getting fired would be 100% right now and it would be justified. One thing I'll say to the PR point though, is while I still believe if they fire Bloom and hire some other unknown it'll be mainly for PR reasons, I should that sometimes PR reasons are justifiable enough from a business perspective. In this case I don't particular buy it (if the team is good no one will care who the GM is, and knowing the Boston media they would find something negative to talk about such that people will be disgruntled until the team is good anyways) but I can sort of see the case at least - if you think Bloom is a replacement level POBO why not get a different one and also hopefully win some fan points.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 13, 2023 18:11:13 GMT -5
OK, wasn't so obvious to me the way you stated it. And really, I'm not trying to be difficult here but you said for success to occur, it's a pretty simply formula. Yet lot of teams in the league follow this formula, but very few win with it. This seems like a great formula to get to somewhere between 75 and 85 wins consistently, but there's got to be something else to create the success you started with, at least on a consistent basis. There's a variable or two not in there. ADDED: At least one team has defied this formula off and on and won 29 out of the last 30 years, as much as I truly hate them. Not saying their model is great or even something anyone should emulate, but there are years in there where they had great success in terms of number of regular season wins with few young players they developed. Well I did say it’s a simple formula that’s hard to execute. Even the Yankees have needed to follow it. Jeter, Rivera, Posada, Bernie Williams, Sanchez, Judge, Pettite, Severino, Cano, Robertson, Gardner, Orlando Hernandez, even someone like Phil Hughes—they’ve relied heavily on good, controllable talent throughout that whole period. And they’ve still only won a single World Series in two decades despite spending more than anyone in the league year after year after year. Even the 2021 Red Sox are a perfect example—it’s the only season they’ve actually been good under Bloom, because it’s the only season their veterans were mostly healthy and productive. They got decent-or-better performances out of the likes of Dalbec, Devers, Barnes, Whitlock, ERod, Darwinzon, Pivetta and Houck for under $30 million combined, Kiké/JD/Xander/Eovaldi were all great (Schwarber for the second half, too) and even some of the scrap heap finds worked out. And I agree with you in the mean, but I still think that formula is missing a component or two, even with health (and luck) factored in. Maybe it's some combination of X number of position players performing at 4.5 or better WAR, X number of starters with an average of ERA+/xFIP/ERA/FIP at (whatever) and 3 or more relievers giving you 60+ innings at another level. As stated, though about 22-25 teams follow what you have here to some degree every year, with 4-7 teams in in the tank and Colorado is playing 4-D chess while everyone else is playing baseball. All of the failure within the first group can't be due to health and luck. All of which is to say I think your formula is accurate for the current structure and MLB environment to get you a 75-85 win team. But building consistent playoff teams requires something beyond health and luck with the components you listed. This assumes success = making the playoffs, which is (or should be) the standard in a cutthroat, results-oriented business like professional sports. Progression from losing seasons to winning seasons is nice, but playoffs are the goal. Once there, lots of formulas seem to fall apart, at least that's what the data say. As many have stated and shown here over the years, winning each series (except for maybe the recent play-in games) and the World Series is somewhere between a coin flip and 55-45 odds almost every year. Oh, and about NYY. I acknowledge your list of cheap, young controlables, but there were years in recent memory where they made the playoffs with very few of those guys and the ones they did have weren't impact players. Looking back, the 2004 Red Sox had very few young, controllable starting players and none of the rotation arms (though Arroyo did contribute significantly during the seasion). Ditto 2007 (Pedroia, Youkilis, Ellsbury for position players, Papelbon + Lester for 1 game) positions, and again in 2013 (Ellsbury, Pedroia, Bogaerts + Saltamacchia for 1 game, Lester and Buccholz). 2018 is the closest to your formula.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 13, 2023 18:12:18 GMT -5
They all break. Use the bullets while they have dry powder in the shells.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 13, 2023 18:34:43 GMT -5
Well, I was at Winter Weekend in January and the reception for Bloom, JWH and Sam K. was pretty brutal. There was sarcastic laughter when Bloom would try to make a point. Other times when he'd say something people would just wave their hands dismissively like you might do to a kid making silly excuses about his report card. My point is it's not like he has august public relations now. I'm not sure it would be any worse. I expect to see more of the same if I go again this coming January. Had he done what's described in the hypothetical I think his odds of getting fired would be 100% right now and it would be justified. One thing I'll say to the PR point though, is while I still believe if they fire Bloom and hire some other unknown it'll be mainly for PR reasons, I should that sometimes PR reasons are justifiable enough from a business perspective. In this case I don't particular buy it (if the team is good no one will care who the GM is, and knowing the Boston media they would find something negative to talk about such that people will be disgruntled until the team is good anyways) but I can sort of see the case at least - if you think Bloom is a replacement level POBO why not get a different one and also hopefully win some fan points. Not if he laid out his thoughts and strategy for upper management before the two deadlines and they bought into it. I mean they hired him to re-build the farm, so I don't think they would have had a big problem with him taking a step in that direction at the '22 deadline instead of betting on a team that had about a 2 percent chance of winning the WS. (For me, this discussion is 90 percent about the '22 deadline. This year, I thought Paxton was unlikely to sustain his dominance and that he was a high injury risk, which everybody else knew too. I also thought he could bring a top 100 prospect. But quite frankly, I'm less interested in the team this year, so I was less engaged with what they were doing at the deadline.) I don't buy that PR would be the only reason to fire Bloom. Do you really think that given the performance the last two years and some of the screwups, he should have 100 percent job security? GMs and POBBO with significantly better four-year records than him have been fired. As I've said, I'm with those who think canning him to bring in an unknown commodity would be pointless. But JWH has been in this biz for more than 20 years now. He has to have a thick rolodex.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 13, 2023 18:43:33 GMT -5
Well, I was at Winter Weekend in January and the reception for Bloom, JWH and Sam K. was pretty brutal. There was sarcastic laughter when Bloom would try to make a point. Other times when he'd say something people would just wave their hands dismissively like you might do to a kid making silly excuses about his report card. My point is it's not like he has august public relations now. I'm not sure it would be any worse. I expect to see more of the same if I go again this coming January. Had he done what's described in the hypothetical I think his odds of getting fired would be 100% right now and it would be justified. One thing I'll say to the PR point though, is while I still believe if they fire Bloom and hire some other unknown it'll be mainly for PR reasons, I should that sometimes PR reasons are justifiable enough from a business perspective. In this case I don't particular buy it (if the team is good no one will care who the GM is, and knowing the Boston media they would find something negative to talk about such that people will be disgruntled until the team is good anyways) but I can sort of see the case at least - if you think Bloom is a replacement level POBO why not get a different one and also hopefully win some fan points. I am firmly in the camp that you should try to win if you have any reasonable shot, and think he handled the trade deadlines very well and fine in 2022 and 2023, respectively. But even I wouldn't necessarily have seen this as fireable. The logic could be: we're basically in a rebuilding period, with the aim of being competitive during that process, and a 1-in-4 shot at a 1-in-2 shot at making the divisional round of the playoffs has less value than the extra boost to the rebuilding from selling off at the deadline.
Again, wouldn't be my logic but it would be defensible; and but also it would look absolutely awful to the normie fans who just want to root for a team that's trying hard to win and aren't like counting how many 45 FV prospects we have at Greenville or whatever.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 13, 2023 18:43:34 GMT -5
Had he done what's described in the hypothetical I think his odds of getting fired would be 100% right now and it would be justified. One thing I'll say to the PR point though, is while I still believe if they fire Bloom and hire some other unknown it'll be mainly for PR reasons, I should that sometimes PR reasons are justifiable enough from a business perspective. In this case I don't particular buy it (if the team is good no one will care who the GM is, and knowing the Boston media they would find something negative to talk about such that people will be disgruntled until the team is good anyways) but I can sort of see the case at least - if you think Bloom is a replacement level POBO why not get a different one and also hopefully win some fan points. Not if he laid out his thoughts and strategy for upper management before the two deadlines and they bought into it. I mean they hired him to re-build the farm, so I don't think they would have had a big problem with him taking a step in that direction at the '22 deadline instead of betting on a team that had about a 2 percent chance of winning the WS. (For me, this discussion is 90 percent about the '22 deadline. This year, I thought Paxton was unlikely to sustain his dominance and that he was a high injury risk, which everybody else knew too. I also thought he could bring a top 100 prospect. But quite frankly, I'm less interested in the team this year, so I was less engaged with what they were doing at the deadline.) I don't buy that PR would be the only reason to fire Bloom. Do you really think that given the performance the last two years and some of the screwups, he should have 100 percent job security? GMs and POBBO with significantly better four-year records than him have been fired. As I've said, I'm with those who think canning him to bring in an unknown commodity would be pointless. But JWH has been in this biz for more than 20 years now. He has to have a thick rolodex. Re; the 1st bolded, I disagree. This is a defense that gets brought up of Dombrowski sometimes too ("well the owners didn't say he couldn't sign Sale so how can they fire him") and I also disagree with it then. The ownership can give the front office freedom to operate, approval to make the decisions they want to, and then also fire them if the decisions didn't work out the way the guy thought they would. Re; the second I also disagree (maybe a Yankees guy in the Steinbrenner era?) but that requires a whole nuanced discussion that I don't want to get into and in which we will never agree with each other so there's no point.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 13, 2023 18:46:23 GMT -5
Had he done what's described in the hypothetical I think his odds of getting fired would be 100% right now and it would be justified. One thing I'll say to the PR point though, is while I still believe if they fire Bloom and hire some other unknown it'll be mainly for PR reasons, I should that sometimes PR reasons are justifiable enough from a business perspective. In this case I don't particular buy it (if the team is good no one will care who the GM is, and knowing the Boston media they would find something negative to talk about such that people will be disgruntled until the team is good anyways) but I can sort of see the case at least - if you think Bloom is a replacement level POBO why not get a different one and also hopefully win some fan points. I am firmly in the camp that you should try to win if you have any reasonable shot, and think he handled the trade deadlines very well and fine in 2022 and 2023, respectively. But even I wouldn't necessarily have seen this as fireable. The logic could be: we're basically in a rebuilding period, with the aim of being competitive during that process, and a 1-in-4 shot at a 1-in-2 shot at making the divisional round of the playoffs has less value than the extra boost to the rebuilding from selling off at the deadline.
Again, wouldn't be my logic but it would be defensible; and but also it would look absolutely awful to the normie fans who just want to root for a team that's trying hard to win and aren't like counting how many 45 FV prospects we have at Greenville or whatever.
This is a mea culpa, I read your hypothetical backwards. I thought it was trade away prospects to add top talent, not vice versa. And to me yeah buying aggressively the last two years and also then failing to make the playoffs would have been fireable. Agree that selling off players would not have been a fireable offense.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 13, 2023 19:16:21 GMT -5
Not if he laid out his thoughts and strategy for upper management before the two deadlines and they bought into it. I mean they hired him to re-build the farm, so I don't think they would have had a big problem with him taking a step in that direction at the '22 deadline instead of betting on a team that had about a 2 percent chance of winning the WS. (For me, this discussion is 90 percent about the '22 deadline. This year, I thought Paxton was unlikely to sustain his dominance and that he was a high injury risk, which everybody else knew too. I also thought he could bring a top 100 prospect. But quite frankly, I'm less interested in the team this year, so I was less engaged with what they were doing at the deadline.) I don't buy that PR would be the only reason to fire Bloom. Do you really think that given the performance the last two years and some of the screwups, he should have 100 percent job security? GMs and POBBO with significantly better four-year records than him have been fired. As I've said, I'm with those who think canning him to bring in an unknown commodity would be pointless. But JWH has been in this biz for more than 20 years now. He has to have a thick rolodex. Re; the 1st bolded, I disagree. This is a defense that gets brought up of Dombrowski sometimes too ("well the owners didn't say he couldn't sign Sale so how can they fire him") and I also disagree with it then. The ownership can give the front office freedom to operate, approval to make the decisions they want to, and then also fire them if the decisions didn't work out the way the guy thought they would. Re; the second I also disagree (maybe a Yankees guy in the Steinbrenner era?) but that requires a whole nuanced discussion that I don't want to get into and in which we will never agree with each other so there's no point. Are you talking about Bob Watson? I don't recall whether he got canned or just walked on his own. Or are you going back even further in MFY history? One guy I had in mind is the obvous one: D-Dom. But I didn't mention him for fear of setting off another pointless "Tastes Great!-Less Filling!" discussion about him and Bloom. Regardless of where you stand on that, his teams were miles more successful than Bloom's. Three division titles in four years and a WS win. Zero and zero for Bloom on those two metrics. And yes, I understand different circumstances and an improved farm. But one guy won big and the other guy hasn't. (Damn, now I probably ignited the D-Dom-CB debate again. 😯)
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Sept 13, 2023 19:26:46 GMT -5
Re; the 1st bolded, I disagree. This is a defense that gets brought up of Dombrowski sometimes too ("well the owners didn't say he couldn't sign Sale so how can they fire him") and I also disagree with it then. The ownership can give the front office freedom to operate, approval to make the decisions they want to, and then also fire them if the decisions didn't work out the way the guy thought they would. Re; the second I also disagree (maybe a Yankees guy in the Steinbrenner era?) but that requires a whole nuanced discussion that I don't want to get into and in which we will never agree with each other so there's no point. Are you talking about Bob Watson? I don't recall whether he got canned or just walked on his own. Or are you going back even further in MFY history? One guy I had in mind is the obvous one: D-Dom. But I didn't mention him for fear of setting off another pointless "Tastes Great!-Less Filling!" discussion about him and Bloom. Regardless of where you stand on that, his teams were miles more successful than Bloom's. Three division titles in four years and a WS win. Zero and zero for Bloom on those two metrics. And yes, I understand different circumstances and an improved farm. But one guy won big and the other guy hasn't. (Damn, now I probably ignited the D-Dom-CB debate again. 😯) No need for debate in my eyes. There is a club. Dombrowski is in it, Bloom is not. When Chaim gets his banner, let debate begin !!!
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Post by manfred on Sept 13, 2023 19:33:51 GMT -5
Why doesn’t the Lou Gorman faction ever jump in?
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 13, 2023 19:38:04 GMT -5
I think they’ve done about as well as could be reasonably expected with what was already locked in for the roster. Kiké at shortstop was, what, Plan F? I think Xander at 6/162 is still a bad contract, so I have no qualms about him leaving. It’s just that none of the backup plans worked out either. In the rotation, I don’t think they planned for Tanner Houck breaking his face or Corey Kluber going from serviceable to totally useless in one offseason. And they guys they offered the most money to this offseason ended up pitching great! I don’t think you can ding the front office for Zach Eflin wanting to go home to Florida. I get that I’m lucky enough to have the patience of youth, but at the same time, I’m curious what you expect them to do when they haven’t had anyone ready to contribute from the farm and have had the payroll cluttered with overpaid, underperforming veterans who can’t stay healthy. That’s a good recipe for being a terrible team! If your answer is that John Henry should commit to $300m payrolls for the foreseeable future, it’s certainly not my place to tell you you can’t feel that way, but I don’t think it’s particularly realistic, and it’s not guaranteed to work anyway. Hell, they pushed the boat out for Story, Devers, and Yoshida, and they’ve all been disappointments this year. Same thing for most of the other big contracts signed this offseason. Cluttered with overpaid, underperforming veterans… who is responsible for that? Sale was DD. Who else? Story? Paxton? Kluber? Kiké? Yoshida? You *seem* to be saying somehow they were let down… by the team they created!! That is not a defense. And — again — just as I don’t direct the movie but still want it not to suck, as a consumer, I am not primarily responsible for telling Bloom how to do a better job. I am, if I am paying for the product, entitled to say I’m not getting my money’s worth. JD was killing them in 2020 and 2022. Paying Price and Pedroia through 22 and 21, respectively, didn’t help. As for the other guys, it circles back to the pipeline running dry—when you can’t fill holes in the team with guys from the farm, you back yourself into corner and you have to go to the free agent market, where guys who aren’t very good—like Kiké, Kluber, and Garrett Richards—can command good money on short-term deals. $230 million doesn’t buy you all that much at the ~$8m/WAR rate, especially when you take into consideration that over $20 million of that is going toward player benefits, the bonus pool, and guys on the 40 man but not the MLB roster. You can deal with Connor Seabold blowing up for the league minimum, but when it’s a veteran with a 5-figure salary it really puts you in a hole. If you can’t even produce a number 5 starter then you have to spend a ton of money on pitching just to fill out the rotation, and as we know far too well as Red Sox fans, pitching breaks.
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 13, 2023 19:41:16 GMT -5
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