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Patriots 2023 Offseason Thread
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Post by rasimon on Apr 30, 2023 17:25:08 GMT -5
What did the analysts think of the Pats draft. Most used A,B,C system so I converted to point scale A=4, B=3, C=2, etc... First grade is where the analyst had the Pats ranked and the second grade is their average grade over all teams. The grades were all over the place. There was not that much disagreement on which were the good picks and which were the bad picks. Everyone loved Gonzalez. Everyone thought the Boutte pick was a nice flyer. Most people liked Keion White. Most people did not like the rest of their draft. The big difference in the ratings seems to be due to (a) how much you weight those lower picks into your grade (b) how much you consider positions of need (c) your general grading curve. You can see the averages ranged from 2.51 to 3.42.
NFL.com - Chad Reuter Pats A- 3.67 Avg B+/A- 3.42
PFF - not sure who wrote it Pats A- 3.67 Avg B+ 3.33
Sporting News - Vinny Iyer Pats C- 1.67 Avg B 2.98
CBS - Pete Prisco Pats C+ 2.33 Avg B-/B 2.89
Draft Kings - a few people Pats B+ 3.33 Avg B 3.01
PFN - Ryan Gosling Pats C+ 2.33 Avg B/B+ 3.16
Walter Football Pats B- 2.67 Avg B 3.01
FOX - a few people Pats B+ 3.33 Avg B 2.91
ESPN - Mel Kiper Pats B+ 3.33 Avg B/B+ 3.14
The Ringer - Dan Kelly Pats A 4.00 Avg B 2.95
USA Today - Nat Davis Pats B- 2.67 Avg B- 2.67
NY Post - Marc Vaccaro Pats A 4.00 Avg C+/B- 2.51
AP - Rob Maadi Pats B+ 3.33 Avg B 3.09
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 1, 2023 12:03:02 GMT -5
www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/2023-nfl-draft-takeaways-patriots-clearly-were-underwhelmed-late-round-talent?I can't even imagine writing this crap, when the draft set an NFL record for trades! He just completely overlooks facts, like the Patriots 3rd round pick was announced as a LB, not safety. That he's on record saying the latest he'd be 100% healthy was for the start of training camp. If you don't like a draft, that's fine, give us the legit reasons. Instead he just makes up a narrative that isn't true, an outright lie! Teams are giving massive bonuses to undrafted guys. The evidence says most teams loved the depth of this draft and so did the Patriots. Matt Groh was talking about late round WRs before the draft even started!
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Post by bensbrothersbrother on May 1, 2023 15:24:29 GMT -5
www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/2023-nfl-draft-takeaways-patriots-clearly-were-underwhelmed-late-round-talent?I can't even imagine writing this crap, when the draft set an NFL record for trades! He just completely overlooks facts, like the Patriots 3rd round pick was announced as a LB, not safety. That he's on record saying the latest he'd be 100% healthy was for the start of training camp. If you don't like a draft, that's fine, give us the legit reasons. Instead he just makes up a narrative that isn't true, an outright lie! Teams are giving massive bonuses to undrafted guys. The evidence says most teams loved the depth of this draft and so did the Patriots. Matt Groh was talking about late round WRs before the draft even started! Dullards write dull things. Dullards & lazy people. It is work to learn about a draft class and the team one (presumably) covers. Have another doughnut instead.
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Post by GyIantosca on May 2, 2023 2:11:48 GMT -5
I just think Bb, more comfortable with certain positions. WR is not one of them. At least the defense is turning over from veteran group to very young
I also know the players mostly ever contract is up in the next 2 seasons.
I feel Bb wants the Schula record. Then it Mayos team.
Boutte sounds pretty interesting
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Post by texs31 on May 2, 2023 10:43:39 GMT -5
Lot of talk that they may try Sow at T:
Report from Breer Lombardi calling him a T Groh mentioned T versatility.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 2, 2023 11:08:22 GMT -5
Everyone should be more comfortable with certain positions. It's just a fact certain positions bust more than others.
The Ravens are unreal at drafting, they have now taken 3 WRs in the first round since drafting Lamar Jackson and countless others in later rounds chasing a #1 WR. The reasoning makes perfect sense, draft experts give them great grades. The results have been crazy bad value wise. They then have to fill holes, yet they can't even take a backup QB when Jackson misses so many games.
Evan Lazar, Patriots beat writing when asked what the difference between Flowers and Douglas was, said competition. He loved Flowers, was pounding the table for him. I didn't agree, yet you had to love his conviction about the player. That was his guy and if you watch enough tape that happens. The problem with this draft, there wasn't much difference in the WR. OT fell off a cliff after a few players, yet Jalen Moreno-Cropper a guy very similar to Addison taken in first went undrafted. Why? Competition level, if he played at a power 5 school he gets drafted. Still shocked a guy with 4.4 speed, great production and a great route runner goes undrafted.
The Patriots were smart, they hit the value section of the WR group. Still amazed how some of these guys dropped. We'll see if they picked the right ones. Yet they got great value at a position that bust around 50% of the time in the first round. Matt Groh seems to have a massive influence over Bill. Yeah you had a Bill doing Bill in the 4th, yet no slow non athletic smart team captains types either.
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Post by bensbrothersbrother on May 2, 2023 16:37:08 GMT -5
The Ravens also did not pick-up the 5th year option on 2020 1st round pick Pat Queen, a LB who runs fast but not aways in the correct direction and gets carried 8 yards into the end zone by a WR he's trying to tackle (this actually happened). The next RB you see him drive to the ground might well be the 1st one.
I'm pretty sure Baltimore got all A's for that pick.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 3, 2023 11:28:14 GMT -5
Well if Patriots take Trenton Simpson in the 3rd round instead of Mapu, most people give them a much better grade. Was seen by some at one time as a first round type guy, yet he's also a guy seen to not have good football IQ and bad instincts. Takes bad routes, a read and react player, not a figure out what his happening and attacks. Mapu is seen as good at those things, him firing through the line at the Shrine Bowl. Queen isn't the only new age 1st and 2nd round pick to disappoint, there's actually tons of them. Not total busts, yet no where near the impact expected. Per PFF multiple teams had interest in Mapu as a LB, looking at his plays in the run game and passing game. I didn't really want Simpson, yet we needed speed and coverage ability at LB. We needed a playmaker, not just a guy who racks up tackles, yet impact plays. Now who knows if Mapu is that guy, you just never know about prospects. Part of the reason I loved the draft they tried something different and tried to fix one of the issues left keeping you from an elite D. Easier to finish the D, than trying to make the offense elite.
The other thing that bugs me, is certain people would have given you a higher grade if you simple switch Boutte and Douglas with Andrews and Ryland. Like some how changing the order should matters, not who you actually drafted.
The last thing is all the talk about taking a kicker and punter and special teams. I get it, I'm usually that guy. Patriots invest too much into special teams. Last year was horrible though, you were losing games because of special teams. Did these people not watch last year after Bailey got injured? Heck even when Bailey was healthy, he sucked at punting hurting the team every game with short punts. Folk has been great overall, yet he can't kickoff to save his life. He also sucks in the wind, not a good thing given the Patriots playing in the NorthEast late in the year at multiple parks. The crazy missed tackles on kickoff and punt returns. It might have been the worst special teams Bill has had with the Patriots. That's amazing to say given Marcus Jones and his return ability.
I can't wait for the season, bring on the underdogs! I really need that given the Celtics and Bruins lately.
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Post by bensbrothersbrother on May 3, 2023 12:16:22 GMT -5
"I can't wait for the season, bring on the underdogs!"
Yes. Now who will adopt the Rodney Harrison role of reminding anyone & everyone after every game how nobody believes in his team?
Things I am optimistic about:
Top D adds 3 potentially/eventually impactful pieces;
Gesicki (we could never cover that guy);
Billy O & Klemm;
Mac reverts to 2021 form PLUS improves to 3rd year level (Reminder: NE was 6th in scoring w/ lesser skill group);
BB Vengeance Tour -- I wanna see it; I demand it -- F them fools.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 3, 2023 12:33:13 GMT -5
"I can't wait for the season, bring on the underdogs!" Yes. Now who will adopt the Rodney Harrison role of reminding anyone & everyone after every game how nobody believes in his team? Things I am optimistic about: Top D adds 3 potentially/eventually impactful pieces; Gesicki (we could never cover that guy); Billy O & Klemm; Mac reverts to 2021 form PLUS improves to 3rd year level (Reminder: NE was 6th in scoring w/ lesser skill group); BB Vengeance Tour -- I wanna see it; I demand it -- F them fools. They weren’t a top D. They could be if Gonzalez is a real number 1 corner and Mapu is the kind of coverage LB with speed they’ve been lacking. You’d then have real speed at the second level to go along with a pass rush. Oh they also need Baremore to be good. Those 3 elements get added to what they already have and it’s an elite defense. If not, they’ll still be frauds padding stats against lessor opponents.
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Post by bensbrothersbrother on May 3, 2023 13:04:47 GMT -5
"I can't wait for the season, bring on the underdogs!" Yes. Now who will adopt the Rodney Harrison role of reminding anyone & everyone after every game how nobody believes in his team? Things I am optimistic about: Top D adds 3 potentially/eventually impactful pieces; Gesicki (we could never cover that guy); Billy O & Klemm; Mac reverts to 2021 form PLUS improves to 3rd year level (Reminder: NE was 6th in scoring w/ lesser skill group); BB Vengeance Tour -- I wanna see it; I demand it -- F them fools. They weren’t a top D. They could be if Gonzalez is a real number 1 corner and Mapu is the kind of coverage LB with speed they’ve been lacking. You’d then have real speed at the second level to go along with a pass rush. Oh they also need Baremore to be good. Those 3 elements get added to what they already have and it’s an elite defense. If not, they’ll still be frauds padding stats against lessor opponents. They were a top defense by statistical measure. #3 in DVOA; #8 in YPG (20 ypg behind #1); #11 in PPG (sadly those 2 return TDs in WK 18 cost them an 11th straight Top 10 finish in PPG allowed). 7 of their games were against Top 7 offensive teams (ypg) while only one was against Bottom 7. Hardly frauds. Every team plays a mix of teams good and bad. Shocking to think they might have better results offensively against a poor defense & vice versa.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 3, 2023 13:58:15 GMT -5
They weren’t a top D. They could be if Gonzalez is a real number 1 corner and Mapu is the kind of coverage LB with speed they’ve been lacking. You’d then have real speed at the second level to go along with a pass rush. Oh they also need Baremore to be good. Those 3 elements get added to what they already have and it’s an elite defense. If not, they’ll still be frauds padding stats against lessor opponents. They were a top defense by statistical measure. #3 in DVOA; #8 in YPG (20 ypg behind #1); #11 in PPG (sadly those 2 return TDs in WK 18 cost them an 11th straight Top 10 finish in PPG allowed). 7 of their games were against Top 7 offensive teams (ypg) while only one was against Bottom 7. Hardly frauds. Every team plays a mix of teams good and bad. Shocking to think they might have better results offensively against a poor defense & vice versa. It’s not about them having worse games versus top offenses, it’s about them getting exposed against them and not making big stops. It’s been the same story 3 years in a row now. They haven’t had the horses. If you’ve been happy with their defense and thinks it’s been a great D all the power to you but there’s a reason why they can’t make a big stop to save their lives.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 3, 2023 14:24:56 GMT -5
They weren’t a top D. They could be if Gonzalez is a real number 1 corner and Mapu is the kind of coverage LB with speed they’ve been lacking. You’d then have real speed at the second level to go along with a pass rush. Oh they also need Baremore to be good. Those 3 elements get added to what they already have and it’s an elite defense. If not, they’ll still be frauds padding stats against lessor opponents. They were a top defense by statistical measure. #3 in DVOA; #8 in YPG (20 ypg behind #1); #11 in PPG (sadly those 2 return TDs in WK 18 cost them an 11th straight Top 10 finish in PPG allowed). 7 of their games were against Top 7 offensive teams (ypg) while only one was against Bottom 7. Hardly frauds. Every team plays a mix of teams good and bad. Shocking to think they might have better results offensively against a poor defense & vice versa. They played 6 games against top 7 YPG (Bills x2, Miami x2, Det and Minn). Bengals were 8th so that’s your 7th. Detroit has Goff at QB, Bill is still great at shutting down mediocre QBs. Bridgewater was in the second Miami game. They played 5 times against bottom 10 defenses. A 6th against the Cardinals without Murray. A 7th against Cleveland and Brissett Against those 7 teams they gave up 14.8 PPG bc the Bears put up 33 (gross). The rest of the league including the shutout they were at 24.3 ppg which is what a top 9 offense scores. To be a top D you have to be able to shutdown good QBs to a point. They had a great second half versus Burrow which was nice to see but it was the only time all season they did that. I’m harder on them because this is supposed to be a defensive team and they get talked about like they are because they pad their numbers against lousy QBs. Having an inept offense certainly hurts them, but look at the Jets they are at least able to slow down the Bills and a guy like Jackson and Fields. Pats get destroyed by mobile QBs.
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Post by bensbrothersbrother on May 3, 2023 14:29:53 GMT -5
Sounds like something one would hear on sports talk radio. Narrative not facts (Edit: replying to 1st post; 2nd post showed while I was typing).
Every team gives up yards, first downs, points. I showed where this team ranked at the end of the season. But for some, not only should the Patriots give up less yards, first downs, points, they have to do it in every example one can think to label & cite as IMPORTANT.
I don't find that method instructive. I avoid talk shows for that reason. They are OUTRAGE peddlers. I don't want any. I don't need any.
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Post by bensbrothersbrother on May 3, 2023 14:47:18 GMT -5
Held Tua & his weapons to 10 points in game 1. Forgot that one.
Teddy Bridgewater was a #1 pick & lasted this longin the NFL for a reason. Career 90 passer rating. Sorry he doesn't qualify as REAL QB on your list. He was good enough to put 30 on the Cowboys in 2021.
May you be as good at ANYTHING as Jared Goff is at playing QB. 99.2 QB rating last year, 92.8 for his career. In 2018 he led the NFL's 11th best Offense of all time. All time. That he doesn't make the grade a QB is a terrible talking point.
Which team is the one that plays only against Patty Mahomes?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 3, 2023 15:36:53 GMT -5
49ers had #1 D last year. They only played two top 5 offenses all year, Chiefs scored 44 points and Eagles scored 31 points. They also let Stidham in his first start put 34 points up on them.
The idea that elite defenses can reliably shutdown top offenses on the regular in today's football is just wrong. This isn’t 2000, the rule changes have favored the offenses and changed the game. It's about slowing them down, getting them off the field sometimes. You also need a good offense to win those games. We'll never see another Ravens D led by Ray Lewis with Trent Dilfer at QB dominate the league. Unless they roll back a bunch of the newer rules. Yet that's not happening, they want high powered offenses fighting it out.
I truly believe a lot of the hate on our D, has to do with our offense. Even in Mac Jones rookie year, the offense struggled against good defenses.
Fun fact we had the most sacks of any Bill D in decades last year, maybe it was all-time I forget it was a quick second they mentioned it in the draft. That was with Barmore being so so at best last year. Now add in White.
I favor building up the D, not to shutdown elite offenses. It's a few extra stops, a few more big plays. That will in turn lower the bar for our offense to win games. Yeah every now and then you might really stop those offenses for a single game, yet no modern D comes close to doing it on the regular.
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Post by bensbrothersbrother on May 3, 2023 15:52:21 GMT -5
"That was with Barmore being so so at best last year ..."
One of the advanced stats guys recently said Barmore was trending strongly by season's end & he expects a breakout in 2023. Don't remember who said that.
Re: White. Watching him enter the pre-draft greenroom on ESPN -- looking all hard and business-like -- I immediately said, "I want that guy." Thought the Chiefs were gonna grab him at 31. Really surprised to see him at 46. Big strong fast and mean -- what's not to like?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 3, 2023 16:50:54 GMT -5
Barmore could be one of the best DT against the pass next year, he has that upside.
He played less games last year, 17 versus 10, yet rookie 46 tackles, 18 pressures playing 55% of snaps. Last year 23 tackles, 9 pressures and 49% of snaps. That's so so for what he's capable of. Thinking of Judon, Barmore, White and Uche going after the QB is usually just things you dream about. Yet Barmore needs to build off his rookie year, he was just scratching the surface then. Certainly not the big year two jump we were hoping for, so let's hope for a Uche type year 3 coming out party.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 3, 2023 18:11:26 GMT -5
I never said they sucked (I’m sure i have in frustration during the season); but i call them frauds because they aren’t a great defense and get talked about like they are. Being better that league average isn’t akin to great. This team is built to need a great defense and it’s not and no the offense doesn’t help that.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,892
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Post by cdj on May 4, 2023 6:39:12 GMT -5
To me the defense is good not great. Like don’t go into New England with a rookie QB or an average guy, they’ll make him look like they don’t belong in the league…but if you go in with a mobile Qb you might not punt very much. If the Mapu (and Gonzalez) pick hits then I think he’s bringing exactly what they need to the LB core and the defense *could* be great.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 4, 2023 12:49:30 GMT -5
Who said they were great? I don't think they were great, yet they were a top defense. They played 5 teams in the top 6 in scoring, 49ers only played one in regular season. Which is what is used to rate the D. Scoring D includes special teams allowed TDs and turnovers that results in points. Take out a few plays I remember that weren't on D and I get 34 points, I'm likely missing some. That would be the #3 scoring D. Almost every stat is top 10. That's with an offense hurting the D almost every game and the worst special teams play I've ever seen. Outside of the points, it kept them on the field and gave the other team better field position.
Yeah their Achilles Heal was running QBs, two worst games were Ravens and Bears, likely the two best running QBs in game.
They didn't allow a single top 6 offense to score 30 points, heck when you take the points out that aren't the D fault it was only Ravens and Bears. It's why I'm excited about Mapu.
They had moments of brilliance against top 5 offenses, a shutout of Detriot, zero points to Bengals in 2nd half. That’s with a young D, where guys like Uche, Jack and Marcus Jones took awhile to get going. A team that played Myles Bryant all season and Mills.
Worries for next year, biggest one tough schedule, one of the hardest in league. Heck our own division is crazy. Then FS, really want one of the Jones back there and Mills as CB4, matchup piece. Then Mapu, he'll be healthy for training camp, yet likely misses everything else and they need him.
My main point being, if you call them frauds after opening drives against Vikings that's a you problem. No defense is shutting down these high powered offenses all the time or getting stops when you need/want them all the time. No defense in the league did that last year. The 49ers D was frauds, because they had a weak schedule that didn't feature a ton of top offenses.
Even if we have a great D next year, it's not going to be what some want. Those early 2000 teams where the D could carry a young inexperienced Brady aren't happening anymore. The game has changed, rules favor QBs and offenses now. Look they didn't change the Hurts push the pile crap, something that basically unstoppable.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 4, 2023 15:31:38 GMT -5
Lots of things are a me problem and this may be one of them.
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Post by bensbrothersbrother on May 4, 2023 17:50:17 GMT -5
Lots of things are a me problem and this may be one of them. Best sentence I've seen anywhere today -- thank you.
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Post by rasimon on May 4, 2023 18:21:21 GMT -5
Question. Instead of drafting a kicker and a punter and hoping they turn out okay why don't the Patriots just go out and sign the best kicker and the best punter in free agency. Kickers and punters are really cheap relative to other free agents. For example, Matt Gay was the best free agent kicker this offseason. He signed for 4 years 22.5 million. Last year he went 28/30 overall and 7/9 at 50 plus. His only misses were from over 50. PFF had him as the #4 rated kicker but the top four were all very very close. And he is only 29 years old. 5.6MM may seem like a lot but if you know you're getting an almost sure thing kicker, that seems a lot more valuable than some of the other dreck we signed. I'm not too upset about using the 192nd on a punter Baringer. There was not a lot of talent left on the board by that time anyways. But we don't know how well he will turn out either.
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Post by rasimon on May 4, 2023 18:53:42 GMT -5
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